Search found 1796 matches

by asif408
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

Specifically, it looks like making an A/A shift based on what appears hot right now - value. When exactly has value been "hot" recently? I only see a small amount of value outperformance in the last 1-3 months in the US, and the last 1,2,3,5 & 10 years growth has trounced value. Pretty much every i...
by asif408
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn't I buy a Dow Jones index fund instead of TSM or the S&P?
Replies: 20
Views: 1282

Re: Why shouldn't I buy a Dow Jones index fund instead of TSM or the S&P?

The only reason I can think of is because there is something better than the DOW. Why not Vanguard's Health Care fund? It has had a lower maximum drawdown and higher Sharpe ratio than both the DOW & S&P, as well as 4-5% higher CAGR: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeri...
by asif408
Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11783

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Vision wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:38 am
I just hold VT and nothing else, so whatever VT has, I have in China. I believe in holding world stock index and letting it sit for 30 years.
Ok, thanks. So you hold less in China (3.4%) than you hold in 2 US individual stocks together: Microsoft and Apple, which make up 3.9% of VT.
by asif408
Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11783

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Some excellent logical replies here. Love this forum. So OP, Just curious: 1) How much do you currently have invested in China (% wise, if any?) 2) Is there any percentage of US companies that you hold in an index that concern you, or are they all superior to even the least corrupt Chinese companie...
by asif408
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps
Replies: 66
Views: 4846

Re: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps

I disagree with you regarding the "performance chasing" element, non of this exercise included information regarding returns, just volatility and correlation. That being said the analysis was contrived by my own holdings and preferences. Cheers :greedy Although you didn't include return information...
by asif408
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me decide on HSA
Replies: 21
Views: 1117

Re: Help me decide on HSA

Maybe I missed it but what are the premiums for each plan? That would also be a consideration. I have a HDHP/HSA, and I considered the: 1) Difference in premiums 2) Tax savings from HSA 3) Difference in cost in 3 situations: a) no health care expenses, b) expenses right around max deductible c) and ...
by asif408
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps
Replies: 66
Views: 4846

Re: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps

As best I can tell, you start off with 30% of your portfolio in international stocks market cap weighted. Seems fine. At the end you end up with less in international stocks (20%, with half of that in low vol international), a heavy tilt to small stocks in the US, replace total bond with LTTs, and t...
by asif408
Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What were the best portfolios during the "lost decade" 2000-2009?
Replies: 33
Views: 3612

Re: What were the best portfolios during the "lost decade" 2000-2009?

Anything heavy in precious metals equities, emerging markets (particularly value), and REITs did exceptionally well, but that was not a typical portfolio then or today. It returned over 15%: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2...
by asif408
Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Managing” our AsseT Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 742

Re: “Managing” our AsseT Allocation

Allen, I think you see that level of precision here because most of the people that visit this board regularly are really into the investing stuff. In real life (i.e., outside this forum), most people's eyes glaze over when you talk about this stuff, but on this board arguments ensue over decimal po...
by asif408
Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Treasuries?
Replies: 6
Views: 559

Re: Long Term Treasuries?

Why were LTTs down 15% from August 2016 through October 2018? I don't know the answer to this or your question why they were up. All you have to know is that the longer the duration of the bonds you invest in the more volatile they are. You might want to start at the Wiki page and read to educate yo...
by asif408
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Funds: They May Not Enhance Asset Allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 1814

Re: Emerging Market Funds: They May Not Enhance Asset Allocation

I can't see the article because it looks like you have to pay to view, but the time frame is very suspicious to me. 1993 wasn't far from the start of a big bear market in EM, and 2017 is at the tail end of another bear market in EM. I imagine any index strategy that begins with a bear market and end...
by asif408
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11783

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

The nice thing in that China is only 3% of VT if that concerns you. I'd be more concerned about US fraud since they makes up 55% of VT. Sure China is corrupt but let's not pretend that Worldcom and Enron didn't exist or that some future Worldcom or Enron types currently exist in the US stock market.
by asif408
Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium
Replies: 52
Views: 3706

Re: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium

I'll do you a favor before the anti market timers show up Adjusting your AA based on the ERP is entirely rational , sensible and logical. In fact, it IS one of the inputs to determine your ideal risk exposure in the context of mean-variance utility optimization. That people don't do it is a demonst...
by asif408
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 51
Views: 4870

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

To me, it's as simple as this: if I can stick my money under a mattress and come out ahead of investing in a bond, then bonds are in a bubble. That seems to be the case in much of Europe, less so here in the US. The crazy thing in Europe is that there are junk bonds yielding less than zero, yielding...
by asif408
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is home bias really biased?
Replies: 12
Views: 1009

Re: Is home bias really biased?

So I will flip this question and ask why not international? So the S&P is 43% international. What does this mean? It mean that the S&P is dominated by large multinational companies. If you look at international indexes you are going to see the same thing - dominated by large multinational companies...
by asif408
Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors
Replies: 71
Views: 3701

Re: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors

A portfolio that is susceptible to other risks aside from those of US large capitalization companies. That's why I'm thinking of stuff like timber investing, utilities, small value, etc. Definitely not more portfolio efficient since I know the market portfolio is already efficient. I'm looking for ...
by asif408
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3572

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

Now the efficient frontier likely says international provides almost no benefit because of the last decade of US outperformance. Not if the frontier is competently constructed. Naively extrapolating the most recent 10 years into the future would be the kind of rookie mistake that is easily avoided....
by asif408
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3572

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

I've got an international equity allocation of 40% precisely because that's what the experts at Vanguard, Fidelity, etc. recommend, and I'm in no position to second guess them. But I wonder: Is there any evidence that suggests a smaller allocation to international is optimal for the typical investo...
by asif408
Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3572

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

Info has been posted on this board before, and I'm sure someone saved it and can repost it here, showing that the sweet spot for international equities for US investors is indeed closer to 20% than the total world market cap of around 44%. Depends on the time frame used. The one on this site stoppe...
by asif408
Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to allocate large stock sale proceeds given current allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 381

Re: Where to allocate large stock sale proceeds given current allocation

I'd probably just allocate to match whatever your chosen allocation is. So if you want to be 90/10 stocks/bonds, with say 20% in international, contribute enough to each to match that allocation.

If you don't have a desired AA, then it's probably good to come up with one.
by asif408
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3572

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

Imagine you have a loved one (friend of relative) with a persistent cough, chest pains, and shortness of breath so you encourage you to visit the doctor. At then end of the visit, you ask them how it went. "Well", they say, "I told the doctor that I've been smoking 2 packs of cigarettes a day and t...
by asif408
Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads at Schwab - will you start buying Vanguard ETFs instead?
Replies: 16
Views: 1716

Re: Bogleheads at Schwab - will you start buying Vanguard ETFs instead?

Also, does it matter in any way that VTI’s AUM is so much larger than SCHB? Does it make VTI a bit safer or less likely to face issues? IMO, no. Anything with several billion in assets that owns a broad segment of the world market can generally be considered unlikely to face issues to be concerned ...
by asif408
Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 13805

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

IIRC, I started out 70/30 US/Int'l before I knew anything based on the advice of this board, since I was a bit of a newbie back then. That was back around 2013/2014. Developed ex-US and emerging markets have underperformed US stocks every year since 2013 except for 2017, so like others I have been d...
by asif408
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 6944

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

We also don't have anyone arguing that one should eschew US stocks altogether (or even go beyond market weight in international). If we did, that would be interesting. I pretty much have held an extremely overweight international position since 2016 (<10% US stocks), but wouldn't dare argue for it,...
by asif408
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 6944

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

My observation is that, at least on this board, sentiment is very low with regards to international investing (maybe nearing a nadir?), and not far behind with value. I think most of the frequent posters here advocate for some international diversification, but not necessarily a value tilt. So your ...
by asif408
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Value Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1144

Re: Emerging Markets Value Funds?

There are no really true EM value funds that I know of that are easy to access, though a couple are good approximations (like FNDE mentioned above). FNDE is about the cheapest at 0.39% ER. You could also consider PXH, which has an ER of 0.5%. There are some others, but their track record is shorter ...
by asif408
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you use Vanguard (Brokerage), why do you stay?
Replies: 58
Views: 6649

Re: If you use Vanguard (Brokerage), why do you stay?

What the other companies are offering with free ETF trades for my purposes is exactly the same as what I already have with Vanguard. Personally, I don't do much with my accounts as far as trading, and my needs are low with brokerage accounts, so for me I started with them and see no compelling reaso...
by asif408
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Thanks, this is helpful. I figured I was probably using the wrong terms. Basically, I was looking to see if there were sustained times VTIAX was "up" when VTSAX was "down". Answer is not really, but VTIAX vs VTSAX only takes us back to 2011. If we extend to Investor Class shares and pick up the 200...
by asif408
Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I would think that if international provided diversification benefits we'd see it in the historical performance, no? Instead when I look at a chart of VTIAX and VTSAX across the life of both, they seem largely in sync and correlated to me. What am I missing? Co...
by asif408
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?
Replies: 98
Views: 5949

Re: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?

The main flaw I see is that you can selectively choose starting and ending dates to make any point you like in investing and make a good headline for an article. For example: 1976-2011: Gold is a much better investment than stocks over the long run 1980-2019: Gold is a terrible investment that can h...
by asif408
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

We should already be well into this decade of Int. out performance, long predicted by Vanguard and others. The under performance vs. US so far will logically have to be compensated by tremendous out performance in the next few years. Aside from an eventual weakening the US Dollar, I don't see what ...
by asif408
Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy Low, Sell High... Define High
Replies: 10
Views: 1103

Re: Buy Low, Sell High... Define High

Personally, I like to keep it simple. The reason is that rebalancing, no matter how you do it, and particularly for a buy and hold investor, likely won't make much difference to your overall long term returns. I basically check once a year and if there is not much disparity in returns I do nothing. ...
by asif408
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to safely park/invest shorter term cash to maximize returns - a *little* risk is OK
Replies: 27
Views: 3263

Re: Where to safely park/invest shorter term cash to maximize returns - a *little* risk is OK

About the best you can do is put 80-90% in MMF/high-yield savings/short term bond fund, and put 10-20% in stocks. During the last 2 bear markets most variations of that allocation lost 4-5% max during the worst periods and didn't lag an all bond portfolio by much, and over the last 25 years it has b...
by asif408
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Also, a diversified portfolio can be expected to have lower volatility as well as slightly higher returns. So the market lows that are coming someday, are likely to test me less severely. That was not the experience in 2008/2009. Very true. That's why I only own long-term Treasuries. Better returns...
by asif408
Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

But in a "business-as-usual" future, I'm not particularly worried about either side underperforming for long -- they'll just trade places for 5-10 year periods of outperformance as major indices usually do, and the volatility on each side canceling each other out will make me better off than holdin...
by asif408
Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

This topic of international vs. domestic is just so hard to discuss. We're all biased, we all seek confirmation bias about preconceived ideas (even when being keenly self-aware of such pitfall), we're all shaped by our personal background and past experiences, and we discuss until we're blue on the...
by asif408
Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 27107

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Is this cherry picking a starting point? What does this tell us? Don’t invest in international? I think it’s best to diversify outside US because you don’t know what the next 30 years will be like. It is cherry picking no doubt... but the only way to make sense of it is to compare the same sets of ...
by asif408
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17702

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

This fallacy keeps on getting repeated here, hat Value has performed better overseas. Just because there are no Intl SCG Index funds in existence over the same period. I cleared this yesterday with another poster. Since DFA introduced their Intl SCG funds and Intl LCG funds, they have outperformed ...
by asif408
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17702

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Because value has underperformed for the last 12 years pretty much worldwide. This is incorrect. U.S. small value ( represented by IJS here ) has pretty much followed the total market movements until around the middle of 2017. Any significant underperformance is pretty much limited to the last ~2 y...
by asif408
Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17702

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

I do find it interesting that there's a lot of suspicion around the value factor, but not so much the size factor? Or maybe it's just not being voiced. Because value has underperformed for the last 12 years pretty much worldwide. Small has only started to underperform in the last few years, and it'...
by asif408
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17702

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

asif First, there really is no low volatility premium, there is a negative premium for the highest volatility stocks, but even there it isn't just high volatility, it's junk high vol (like low profits). The lowest vol stocks actually have had lower returns than the middle vol stocks. In other words...
by asif408
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17702

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

had another thought that might be helpful The investment philosophy of basically all at this site is based on belief that markets pretty efficient. If that is so then it amazes me that there are so many who think it doesn't make sense to have higher expected returns to SV vs TSM. TSM has historical...
by asif408
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 333
Views: 38071

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:04 am
Thx for the response. No argument with what you say here.

To clarify, I did say "for the most part," which means I do have investments outside the US and I do look at valuations and may make changes based on tempting valuations, but I still read most forecasts for amusement. :D
Nice to know. :D
by asif408
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 333
Views: 38071

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

There are 2 reasons I only examined the large-cap forecast. It was the first one listed, and more importantly the bulk of my investments are in the S&P 500. You claim some forecast is better than none. In my case, I disagree. I read them mainly for entertainment purposes. I am, for the most part, a...
by asif408
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 333
Views: 38071

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I located GMO's December 31, 2010, 7 year forecast at: https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/GMO1.pdf I only looked into their prediction for large cap equities which was 0.4 real per year with a range of plus/minus 6.5%. However V00 returned 11.26 nominal. Inflation was probably und...
by asif408
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 333
Views: 38071

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Heck, even GMO, which seems to have a reputation for being bearing on US stocks, is downright bullish (by GMO standards) on US SCV, they expect it to return more than everything but international value and EM (see page 9): https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2019/gmo-quarterly...
by asif408
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection
Replies: 29
Views: 2011

Re: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection

1) None of these scenarios are likely but "inflation surprises in the future" are virtually certain: the problem is accurately predicting the direction and magnitude of the surprises. 2) A globally diversified equity portfolio and a bond portfolio that includes TIPS are the easiest and cheapest pro...
by asif408
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you lose money by buying CDs?
Replies: 24
Views: 2559

Re: Can you lose money by buying CDs?

In nominal terms, not unless you buy a negative rate CD (if they exist). In real terms, yes, depending on inflation.
by asif408
Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1582

Re: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?

So I understand that gold and commodities perform well in different enviroments, so in my case it's probably a good idea to have both (I already have some gold, about 5%, but I am increasing it in the next few months to 7 or 8%). That seems reasonable. Concerning commodities, I understand the probl...
by asif408
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1582

Re: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?

Seems like the question depends on your intended use. Are you looking for an inflation hedge, deflation hedge, etc? My understanding from some of the readings of William Bernstein is that gold itself is a good hedge in a deflationary crisis (like the 1929-1932 stock market crash or the 2007-2009 GFC...