Search found 1615 matches

by asif408
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?
Replies: 51
Views: 3921

Re: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?

Some of us are still learning and gain significantly from daily news. A new term may be mentioned that leads to new knowledge, it is a quick way to get a read on different sectors and their performance, and, perhaps most importantly, it does suggest what is driving the market up or down at that par...
by asif408
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11549

Re: International under-performance

Can you zoom the chart out some more? I want to see the previous 20 year performance. How's this? https://i.imgur.com/R63fDYQ.png Much better, than you, vineviz. It looks like the US underperformed EAFE for the first 27 or so years, as of the middle of this last decade the performance was even, and...
by asif408
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11549

Re: International under-performance

l1am wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:24 am
Image

Only a 7 year trend here of US outperforming INTL
Can you zoom the chart out some more? I want to see the previous 20 year performance.
by asif408
Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain harvesting in Brokerage account
Replies: 4
Views: 361

Re: Tax Gain harvesting in Brokerage account

You mentioned the big pro already. The big con that comes to mind is that the gains still count toward your adjusted gross income, which could affect other deductions/credits/exemptions you might be eligible for. It's hard to say what those would be without knowing your specific situation. I would a...
by asif408
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification
Replies: 86
Views: 6686

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification

Admittedly, I couldn't resist needling you, nisiprius, but I do agree there has not been anyone I have seen recommending 100% Vanguard Healthcare. I have, however, seen many posts here using that specific healthcare fund's past long term outperformance as a reason to hold it in their portfolio (in f...
by asif408
Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification
Replies: 86
Views: 6686

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification

In short... my example does not provide any compelling evidence for international diversification making an important difference. The reason why there wasn't much difference is since the book was published in 1998, we saw about a decade of international outperformance and a decade of international ...
by asif408
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA
Replies: 18
Views: 1277

Re: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA

I can't tell how much is in your HSA relative to your Roth from your post. If the HSA balance is small relative to the 401(k), I would just leave as is. The other question is: are you going to use the HSA for medical expenses? If so, I would leave things as is, too. In theory, you would prefer the h...
by asif408
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Non-US Bogleheads who overweight US?
Replies: 23
Views: 1727

Re: Non-US Bogleheads who overweight US?

However, I've had difficulties to find arguments in favor of a US tilt that rely only on logic and math. I mean, those kind of arguments that made us become index investors in the first place. That's because they don't exist without some emotional component or reference to recent past performance. ...
by asif408
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation "tests"
Replies: 22
Views: 1238

Re: Asset allocation "tests"

This isn't a test, but two notes of interest I would give to get a beginner or someone unfamiliar with investing very basic but important points about stocks and bonds: My mom know this theory, that's why she says she wants to be 100 bonds:) My point is to convince her to have stocks. She is 10 yea...
by asif408
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation "tests"
Replies: 22
Views: 1238

Re: Asset allocation "tests"

This isn't a test, but two notes of interest I would give to get a beginner or someone unfamiliar with investing very basic but important points about stocks and bonds: 1) Stocks are risky in the short term. Every stock market in the world has fallen at least 80% at some point during its existence. ...
by asif408
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conversion Strategy and a market drop
Replies: 22
Views: 1213

Re: Conversion Strategy and a market drop

I happened to convert some after a 20% drop once before, but I wouldn't wait around for it, you might be waiting a while. If you are ready to convert just go ahead and do it.
by asif408
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else concerned about future tinkering of LS Funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1702

Re: Anyone else concerned about future tinkering of LS Funds?

I don't think it's unfounded. But couldn't you just switch at a later time if they decided to change things? IMO the behavioral aspect is more important than the tax efficiency aspect. Any company could make a change to a strategy, so you just have to check your e-mails when Vanguard announces a cha...
by asif408
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on financial market history
Replies: 11
Views: 958

Re: Book on financial market history

There is no such book that I am aware of. You'll have to piece together information from different books. I would suggest the following combination of books: Devil Take the Hindmost Four Pillars of Investing (2010 edition) or Investor's Manifesto Global Investing: The Professional's Guide to the Wor...
by asif408
Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason I shouldn't shorten duration on my treasury bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1222

Re: Any reason I shouldn't shorten duration on my treasury bonds?

It's not an unreasonable move. Over a long horizon it probably won't matter much, but over a few months or years it may help you a bit.
by asif408
Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4773

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Serious question: what would you suggest as the most objective way to selected date ranges? That's my point, there isn't one, and yours is not more objective than mine, although you seem to believe that. The biggest issue I see with using inception date of a fund to compare fund performance is that...
by asif408
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4773

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Maybe, maybe not. I have been a US investor for 50 years, and a US ETF investor for about 30 years. We are so far ahead of the guys who did it "right" and diversified in international for that time period that I can weather a few years of possible US underperformance and still laugh all the way to ...
by asif408
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4773

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Maybe, maybe not. I have been a US investor for 50 years, and a US ETF investor for about 30 years. We are so far ahead of the guys who did it "right" and diversified in international for that time period that I can weather a few years of possible US underperformance and still laugh all the way to ...
by asif408
Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4773

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

40% China, or even the 30% in the Vanguard EM index, does seem like a lot. But then if you did go with a total world allocation, China is less than 4% of that, while US is almost 55%. Perhaps the greater concern should be whether the US has grown to be too large a percentage of world market cap? I ...
by asif408
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash at TD - options for it?
Replies: 6
Views: 324

Re: Cash at TD - options for it?

BIL ETF is a treasury bill ETF that trades commission free and has a yield around 2.4% (before expenses I think).
by asif408
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4773

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

FWIW, I think that a lot of Bogleheads have already moved in that direction. There are far fewer posts/suggested asset allocations including EM as a separate category, and far more that are using world ex-US or simply total world as a building block. That's probably because EM has been the worst pe...
by asif408
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what happened to the predicted bear market in bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4335

Re: So what happened to the predicted bear market in bonds?

From 1982 to 2012 10 year Treasury Notes had an annualized real total return of 6.0%. From 2013 to 2018 the real annualized total return has been a negative 6/10 of 1%. Clearly something changed 6 years ago, which has gone unnoticed by a lot Of people. Yes, the yield on the 10 year hit one of its l...
by asif408
Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your favourite non-total market/SP500 ETF?
Replies: 12
Views: 998

Re: What is your favourite non-total market/SP500 ETF?

My favorite ETFs are those that have the worst trailing 5-10 year performance. So right now that would be gold miners (GDX/RING), energy (VDE/FILL), & EM value (PXH/FNDE).

In 5 years it will probably be something else.
by asif408
Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcasts [Financial]
Replies: 49
Views: 3326

Re: Podcasts

Two I don't see mentioned here often finance related are Wu Zhijian's Evidentialist Channel and the i3 Investment Innovation Institute podcast. The latter has had some pretty interesting guests, and it is based out of Australia. The former sometimes had English speaking guests and other times foreig...
by asif408
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is buying only assets with "tickers" a good Boglehead "rule"?
Replies: 23
Views: 1465

Re: Is buying only assets with "tickers" a good Boglehead "rule"?

No, because there are hundred of leveraged and inverse ETFs with tickers. Just look at SQQQ, SH, TBT, etc. All have tickers, and all are funds I would never invest in. SQQQ, which shorts the Nasdaq, is down 99.75% since inception in 2010.
by asif408
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?
Replies: 9
Views: 1183

Re: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?

The reasons for Roth Conversion are (as I understand it) are: (1) to prevent bumping into really high tax bracket at Age 70.5 due to the RMD Required Minimum dstributons from IRA; and (2) for your heirs, to give them a Roth IRA inheritance with less tax burden But it is not so bad having tIRA if it...
by asif408
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?
Replies: 9
Views: 1183

Re: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?

I hope you never find yourself in a situation like this, but if you do it could be better taxwise if you hadn't already converted it all. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=274925 Let me ask you this. IIRC, can't I use HSA money to pay for LTC? We do plan to further fund the HSA i...
by asif408
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?
Replies: 9
Views: 1183

Re: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?

Agreed, not enough information. Thanks, I'll try to fill in the gaps. Any pensions or other guaranteed income besides SS in retirement? The issue is whether you will have something besides RMDs filling up the low tax brackets. Yes, I work for a state government and have a pension through work. Is y...
by asif408
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?
Replies: 9
Views: 1183

Should we convert all tIRA money to Roth?

My wife and I currently have the following breakdown of our finances by account type (e.g., taxable, tax-deferred, post-tax): Roth IRA: 45% tIRA/457(b): 26% HSA: 19% Taxable: 10% We are both around 40 with 1 child (3 years old) and another on the way. We did a small Roth conversion last year and are...
by asif408
Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades
Replies: 173
Views: 16736

Re: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades

I don't have an easy reference for GMO's forecasts, but if, as asif418 states, "every year since 2000 they have predicted EM and EAFE would have higher returns than US stocks," then they have been right almost exactly half the time. I pieced together their annual forecasts from a post on the old di...
by asif408
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades
Replies: 173
Views: 16736

Re: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades

Amazing the confidence of this forums participants that Grantham's forecast will be wrong. If you have ever looked at GMO's annual expected returns, every year since 2000 they have predicted EM and EAFE would have higher returns than US stocks. So obviously you shouldn't take them literally. While ...
by asif408
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades
Replies: 173
Views: 16736

Re: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades

...when there is a wide disparity between expected returns of asset classes, say more than 5 percent, their relative rankings have absolutely been spot on... In my example, above, there was more than a 5% disparity between U.S. Small and Emerging Markets. Emerging markets was supposed to return 7.5...
by asif408
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades
Replies: 173
Views: 16736

Re: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades

Amazing the confidence of this forums participants that Grantham's forecast will be wrong. If you have ever looked at GMO's annual expected returns, every year since 2000 they have predicted EM and EAFE would have higher returns than US stocks. So obviously you shouldn't take them literally. But if ...
by asif408
Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the relationship between bogleheads and Vanguard diehards?
Replies: 9
Views: 1427

Re: What's the relationship between bogleheads and Vanguard diehards?

I think they are one in the same. Before the Bogleheads forum it was the Diehards forum, IIRC. You can still find the old diehards forum using any search engine you like. The old Vanguar Diehards was/is on the morningstar.com website. Different group with different rules. Interesting, didn't realiz...
by asif408
Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Most NON obvious thing for new investors
Replies: 58
Views: 6924

Re: Most NON obvious thing for new investors

One that wasn't obvious to me when I first started out, and what I see often with newer investors, is the fact that very often, the worst performing asset class of the last 5-10 years ends up at or near the top in the next 5-10 years. And, conversely, the best performer of the last decade often ends...
by asif408
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the relationship between bogleheads and Vanguard diehards?
Replies: 9
Views: 1427

Re: What's the relationship between bogleheads and Vanguard diehards?

I think they are one in the same. Before the Bogleheads forum it was the Diehards forum, IIRC. You can still find the old diehards forum using any search engine you like.
by asif408
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Couple Doesn't Agree On Financial Priorities. How Can They Resolve Their Differences."
Replies: 64
Views: 7372

Re: "A Couple Doesn't Agree On Financial Priorities. How Can They Resolve Their Differences."

I also found it interesting that the article was written by a woman and she was person in the family used in the article who seemed to have the overview of the family finances was also a women. Sadly, it seems that a majority of the voices on this forum seem to be male. Why is that? Its just the wa...
by asif408
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: past performance
Replies: 39
Views: 1764

Re: past performance

I think the warning about past performance not being an indicator of the future is more of a warning against overconfidence in future expectations based on more recent positive past performance, which is the most common way past performance is incorrectly used and can hurt an investor. To use two ex...
by asif408
Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best online high yield savings suggestions
Replies: 34
Views: 3706

Re: Best online high yield savings suggestions

I'm going to piggy back on this post because I'm in a similar situation. I'm rebuilding my wife and I's emergency fund after some costly home repairs we just went through. I was looking at Marcus Online Savings Account till I read in this post about the Vanguard VMFXX. I have a Vanguard Roth IRA Br...
by asif408
Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uncorrelated Asset Classes
Replies: 89
Views: 5218

Re: Uncorrelated Asset Classes

I don't get why people say diversification is dead. Perhaps from a US-only perspective, and ignoring everything before 2008/9 ? March 2009 to today, US up about 400%, non-US 260% Diversification has worked, just not in a good way. Most people don't like diversification when it drags down returns, o...
by asif408
Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Decide When to Do Certain Car Maintenance and Repairs?
Replies: 11
Views: 705

Re: How Do You Decide When to Do Certain Car Maintenance and Repairs?

For safety items (e.g., anything related to brakes), I tend to make those repairs or bring them somewhere for repair once I am aware of them pretty quickly. Things that, if they failed, could cause me to get in an accident, strand me somewhere, or destroy the engine. Others things, like TPMS sensors...
by asif408
Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard use a 40% allocation to International in their Balanced Funds?
Replies: 60
Views: 6517

Re: Why does Vanguard use a 40% allocation to International in their Balanced Funds?

Research conclusions have been “fluid”. Initially the international allocation was only 20%. Vanguard moved it to 30% for a few years before moving to the current 40% - so far. Reasonable minds can disagree on the reasons for these changes. FWIW Blackrock and Fidelity have done the same thing as Va...
by asif408
Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 8685

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Perhaps my question then is best asked as: how can we be confident that we haven’t already overbought the Total Stock fund? Is it because that if that were so, we’d expect much smarter and bigger investors to have sold it off and we are riding their coattails? Is that really a reasonable presumptio...
by asif408
Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI EAFE: A stock market that time, and the internet, forgot
Replies: 10
Views: 1136

Re: MSCI EAFE: A stock market that time, and the internet, forgot

What does it mean that such a large market has so little tech? First, EAFE consists of 20+ markets, not one market. Second, it means EAFE has more of other sectors, which have obviously lagged, and at some point down the road, are poised to outperform the beloved US tech darlings. Anyone who believ...
by asif408
Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Backdoor Roths so popular are this forum?
Replies: 47
Views: 5051

Re: Why are Backdoor Roths so popular are this forum?

Many on this forum earn high enough salaries that they are already maxing out all available employer plans (401ks, 403s, 457s, HSAs, etc) pretax, and are prohibited from direct Roth contributions... But they still have a lot of post tax dollars available to save due to that high income. In that cas...
by asif408
Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio for a 4% plus return
Replies: 35
Views: 3233

Re: portfolio for a 4% plus return

Something like a 20% Equities/80% Investment Grade Bonds portfolio probably has an expected return of 4%, and to me, that is a "conservative" asset allocation. +1. Since it's only 20% equities, I'd be swinging for the fences in that portion and use something with pretty high risk/high reward potent...
by asif408
Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uncorrelated Asset Classes
Replies: 89
Views: 5218

Re: Uncorrelated Asset Classes

1) Equities - Looking at correlations, it seems that there isn't that much diversification benefit from US vs international vs emerging markets equities. They are all highly correlated to each other. One can hold a worldwide basket of stocks including US, other developed markets, and emerging marke...
by asif408
Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard research paper on global diversification
Replies: 21
Views: 2031

Re: Vanguard research paper on global diversification

I think the thing is most people are for diversification between assets when it has helped in the somewhat recent past and hasn't been a significant drag in recent memory. I think that is why you see people here open to diversification with Small Cap Value and REITs, but much less interested in dive...
by asif408
Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anything "cheap" right now?
Replies: 49
Views: 4692

Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

Sure. Russia and Turkey are cheap, they are down 50%+ from their 2008 highs. Gold miners are down almost 70% from their 2011 highs. Energy is down a lot since 2014. Even plain old EAFE and EM are still below or right around their 2011 highs. Pretty much anything outside the US looks decent. IMO this...
by asif408
Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return based on J.Bogle's book
Replies: 5
Views: 539

Re: Expected return based on J.Bogle's book

Hi Piero, To save you some effort, Mr. Bogle does the work for you in one of his last interviews: https://www.morningstar.com/videos/885733/what-jack-bogle-expects-from-the-market.html If you are estimating to a decimal place you are trying too hard. The confidence interval around any expected stock...
by asif408
Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What investing strategy do you consider most ideal (two scenarios)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1638

Re: What investing strategy do you consider most ideal (two scenarios)?

Hello everyone, The reason I am writing to you is because I have money I am interested in transferring to my trading/ROTH IRA accounts. I have two strategies of investing the money I have; however, I am torn between the two. Now, I have considered the following strategies. As an example I am going ...