Search found 137 matches

by ANC
Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 10174

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

I would like to see a fund that has lower risk than its index for 30 years. One example is listed above: Capital Appreciation (PRWCX). Its objective is to achieve equity-like returns over a business cycle at lower risk. To measure performance, the fund benchmarks against the S&P 500 using multi-yea...
by ANC
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington Fund: where is the special sauce?
Replies: 36
Views: 7307

Re: Wellington Fund: where is the special sauce?

YTD 2018, bonds would not have saved you from stock losses. Total bond market (VBTLX) is down more than the S&P500 (-1.94% vs. -1.84%). Although Wellington is slightly worse at -2.38% while Capital Appreciation is moderately better at -1.20%, this is not a severe outlier, Besides its only 6 weeks an...
by ANC
Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 111
Views: 10424

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

Large.......15......22.......38
Medium.....3.......6.........8
Small...... .2.......3.........4

A tilt towards growth.
by ANC
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?
Replies: 266
Views: 25487

Re: Do you see a meaningful change in your income with new Tax Bill?

In the short run, it would lower taxes slightly. We are of moderate income and have taken the standard deduction about 2/3 of the time since the 1986 act. In the long run it's too soon to tell, noting that many provisions sunset around 2025 and the the last tax cut of this size (in 1981) was followe...
by ANC
Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 9464

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

MtnBiker wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:33 pm

Did anyone else buy in today's reopening of the 5 year? I tip-toed in with a purchase of my first one year rung. Yield came in at 0.370%.
I have a iadder at 6-9 right now, so added a 5.
by ANC
Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TRP Total Return Bond Fund PTTFX
Replies: 2
Views: 481

Re: TRP Total Return Bond Fund PTTFX

Your current mix closely resembles a typical TRP retirement or asset allocation fund. It is worth considering keeping. PRCIX is not a fund of funds but does put about 5% in intl and high yield. This is not major but can be annoying if you want precise tracking, like us CS folks tend to do, The main ...
by ANC
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 11608

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

1. Gold hitting $850 in early 1980 2. The tech bubble, while working in Silicon Valley I do not invest in gold or short positions, so the only thing I did was on 2, where I titled towards (active) funds light on tech (several years early in hindsight) and bought some long-term zero coupon Treasuries...
by ANC
Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody with substantial gains in FANG stocks ?
Replies: 22
Views: 2998

Re: Anybody with substantial gains in FANG stocks ?

The point is to understand the thought process that such folks have behind taking big risky positions initially and negotiating the regular big swings by holding on to big positions in one or two stocks If they grow that much and you hold them for a long time, then the initial position may not have...
by ANC
Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 10697

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

None are extraordinarily large, but as follows:
- Growth
- Large cap
- Europe (stocks)
by ANC
Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why
Replies: 101
Views: 12375

Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

This is what RCA looked like when I was growing up in the 50s and 60s--color TV, media, music, a world-leading research organization with inventions like CMOS guaranteed to last for 50 years. Even a symphony orchestra with a world-famous conductor from Europe. You can't buy their stock today. Potent...
by ANC
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 1205

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

TRP, a reputable financial firm by anyone's estimation, suggests that most investors are best served by owning both G and V, which may smooth out the ups and downs a bit as outperformance alternates from one to the other style. Value factor believers accept as fact that in the long run, however lon...
by ANC
Wed May 31, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 83
Views: 22883

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Another way to go is 1-year T-bills or 2-year T-notes. They have yields of 1.16 and 1.28 right now.

I don't have a Vanguard account, but others on this list say you can purchase them at auction for no fees, I believe.
by ANC
Fri May 19, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Information Technology - VGT or VITAX
Replies: 50
Views: 9004

Re: Vanguard Information Technology - VGT or VITAX

I still have stock from 2 IT companies I worked for 15-20 years ago and a house in the Bay Area, so I have no need to add more (or also to overweight EM at the expense of developed Europe). Some people tilt to small cap or small cap value, so why not sector tilt in things like Technology and Healthc...
by ANC
Tue May 16, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best argument you've heard against passive/for active?
Replies: 49
Views: 5819

Re: Best argument you've heard against passive/for active?

1. Asset allocation. Most of the argument I have seen about passive vs. active concern what I call "point funds" and do not address the entire portfolio. We are in the T Rowe Price advisory program and hold a portfolio resembling their retirement and personal strategy funds, but with fewer funds and...
by ANC
Fri May 05, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips From Older Bogleheads?
Replies: 52
Views: 6355

Re: Tips From Older Bogleheads?

Don't listen to older people who got it all wrong. This is fantastic advice. I've learned so much about what not to do by simply observing my older co-workers for the last several years. Their examples have saved me at least a million dollars over the course of my life; probably more. I would cite ...
by ANC
Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni or not Muni?
Replies: 4
Views: 1289

Re: Muni or not Muni?

You probably don't want do a simple yield comparison. To begin with, you need some extra yield to compensate for the call risk you are taking. It would also be good to make sure credit ratings and duration are similar. On duration, it would be good to look at unadjusted duration to gauge how much yo...
by ANC
Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you take these Core funds and Create a Three Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3919

Re: Can you take these Core funds and Create a Three Fund Portfolio?

On the international side, the Columbia and T Rowe Price funds are small-/mid-cap funds, which as I understand it are generally not the international component of a 3-fund portfolio.
by ANC
Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ article-Indexes Beat Stock Pickers Even Over 15 Years New data show that 82% of all U.S. funds trailed their respect
Replies: 19
Views: 4364

Re: WSJ article-Indexes Beat Stock Pickers Even Over 15 Years New data show that 82% of all U.S. funds trailed their res

Regarding the small-cap comparison, the S&P Small Cap 600 index has been a particularly well-performing small-cap index. I wonder if at least part of the underperformance is that S&P is using their very high-performing index. Also, I wonder whether there is data that provides some small correction ...
by ANC
Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best 2050 Target Date Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 2800

Re: Best 2050 Target Date Fund

Moreover, TRP holds slightly less international stock (which is okay), but way, way more unsafe bonds such as high yield bonds and emerging market bonds. If you look at the 2050 funds' allocations, Vanguard has just under 3% allocated to so-called "bond-diversifiers", all in its developed internati...
by ANC
Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Low-earners- What is your profession?
Replies: 306
Views: 40816

Re: Low-earners- What is your profession?

Translator and editor. Wife is not working right now.

$100K is the top I've made, but saved well and married someone who also did. The average salary in my HCOL area is about 4x my own.
by ANC
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are international and US stocks down today?
Replies: 53
Views: 4765

Re: Why are international and US stocks down today?

BTW *every* US Administration that I have ever observed, ..., has its moment of truth, when things go really, really wrong. The successful presidents manage to readjust themselves and carry on. A frequent mistake in my opinion--which is found in the press, the public at large, and many posters here...
by ANC
Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Party is Over: Andrews FCU drops rate on 7-year CD to 2.2%
Replies: 60
Views: 8492

Re: The Party is Over: Andrews FCU drops rate on 7-year CD to 2.2%

It may look like time for Treasuries again soon. The 7-year yield started the year around 2.2% and is now 2.43%.
by ANC
Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Private Client presentation; your thoughts?
Replies: 23
Views: 4945

Re: Chase Private Client presentation; your thoughts?

I was not under the impression that you need to hand over assets to their management at 1% AUM (although I am sure they prefer that). I think all you need is $250K at Chase in some form. When we met them they were pushing mutual funds with 12b1 fees and we got tired of them always trying to recruit ...
by ANC
Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Claims they consistently beat Indexing
Replies: 24
Views: 4533

Re: T. Rowe Price Claims they consistently beat Indexing

2) Its allocations in retirement and personal strategy funds are quite consistent over time, much better than Vanguard's . What are you referring to here? Do you mean (A) they haven't made changes to the underlying allocations since the funds' inception (like Vanguard has increased Int'l allocation...
by ANC
Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawn from TPP market ramifications
Replies: 6
Views: 1426

Re: Withdrawn from TPP market ramifications

I would not expect any noticeable effect.

It was expected and affects only a small part of foreign trade, which is only a part of the international economic picture.It does nothing to affect the free trade pacts the US has with 6, I believe, of the other 12 TPP countries.
by ANC
Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Claims they consistently beat Indexing
Replies: 24
Views: 4533

Re: T. Rowe Price Claims they consistently beat Indexing

If consistency is what you value, here are two things to think about: 1) TRP funds do what they say they do and generally avoid the zigs and zags that some other active funds are known for (or the frequent index changes that some passive funds do) and 2) Its allocations in retirement and personal st...
by ANC
Mon Jan 02, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 21237

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

Have you researched the P/E10s of Japanese stocks during that time? Currently it's about 25 and below its historical average -- so cheap. http://siblisresearch.com/data/japan-shiller-pe-cape/ But the US S&P is about 25 too and said to be very high. So Japanese stocks have been overvalued even after...
by ANC
Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds in taxable account
Replies: 19
Views: 4586

Re: Bond funds in taxable account

I could be in a position like this in a year or so, so I am starting to look at this. If you are a California resident, you will probably have to crunch the numbers. Someone in the upper part of the 15% federal bracket would face a 9.3% marginal tax rate, bringing the total to 24.3%. Moreover, this ...
by ANC
Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nisiprius Investments Unveils New MDF Factor-Based Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 4887

Re: Nisiprius Investments Unveils New MDF Factor-Based Fund

You can also tilt further and hedge your bets at the same time with the FFFF (Fifty Four Forty or Fight) fund, investing in all listed companies between the Russian River and Yukon River. It may not find many fans north of 49'00" however.
by ANC
Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs or funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 1086

Re: ETFs or funds?

ETFs have a low price per share, and it is kept low via stock splits if the ETF runs up too much. For example, iShares just did a stock split for one of the ETFs I own. I don't know of any ETFs over $250/share. That's interesting. I own VOO (VGD S&P 500) and it did a reverse split about 2 years ago...
by ANC
Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 6659

Re: Sometimes this time really is different

Many economists and economic historians attribute much of the erratic behavior before the mid 30s to the gold standard. Although there's always talk about returning to the gold standard on the one hand and the emergence of bitcoin, etc., on the other hand, I do not see a change in the currency regim...
by ANC
Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs Active Investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2059

Re: Passive vs Active Investing

Quick reality check. I don't know yet how it will turn out. I'm going to look up the total assets of Schwab's S&P 500 index fund, their total stock market fund, their "RAFI fundamental index" fund for large-caps, and whatever index-y thing they've got for small-caps or small-cap value. Here goes. S...
by ANC
Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 8438

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Once you have been through a downturn with an outperforming low volatility fund, it is easy to think you have the secret to investing. I thought so, until I joined this forum and read posts like those of Robert T and Larry S in this thread. We used to have several funds that invest in this area, but...
by ANC
Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund
Replies: 46
Views: 6588

Re: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund

Now why would a US investor buy an unhedged EM bond fund? I cannot think of one reason to take on currency risk of some of the most unstable regions in the world. You don't get paid enough to do that. Non-fund investors such as institutions often don't want this either, so a lot of them are issued ...
by ANC
Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 18202

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Few thoughts B) when comparing HY to stock mix, while for simplicity reason even I have used S&P 500 but HY stocks are typically not those stocks, but riskier smaller and valuey companies with higher expected returns. If you are not convinced this will persist, there is a common-sense counterargume...
by ANC
Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 18202

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Now, it's possible any given approach may provide more consistent or superior returns than another; you might think in terms of total return and come up with the same AA as some other approach. With a HY corp fund, all else equal over time the distributions will go down as a result of defaults, per...
by ANC
Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Practice Ethical Investing?
Replies: 47
Views: 3877

Re: Do You Practice Ethical Investing?

When I hear "ethical," I think of conforming to certain prescripts of right and wrong when carrying out one's affairs--as a member of society, a business, a profession, etc. From that point, I do practice ethical investing. For a long time, I have not invested in mutual fund providers that participa...
by ANC
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 18202

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Salty As Martin Fridson explained in his 1994 paper “Do High-yield Bonds Have an Equity Component?”: “In effect, a corporate bond is a combination of a pure interest rate instrument and a short position in a put on the issuer’s equity. The put is triggered by a decline in the value of the issuer’s ...
by ANC
Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy 10 year TIPS at auction in July?
Replies: 29
Views: 2736

Re: Should I buy 10 year TIPS at auction in July?

Also, I believe there are several other posters on this forum who are in the process of building TIPS ladders. Have current low rates caused you to halt ladder construction or are you "staying the course"? I have had some thoughts in the opposite direction right now. Treasuries rates are what they ...
by ANC
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium
Replies: 21
Views: 3146

Re: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium

I think you have to add to this that some countries, like Japan and Germany, just like the stock market less. Another fact I think worth looking at is the congruence between social development and institutional development, which Bernstein does discuss (perhaps a good topic for another post). I do f...
by ANC
Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (Japan) Domestic bonds: individual bonds or bond funds? And which?
Replies: 12
Views: 1625

Re: (Japan) Domestic bonds: individual bonds or bond funds? And which?

You might want to consider "going native" and keeping a significant allocation to cash. Cash is earning more than the 10-year JGBs for institutions right now by 11bp (+.01 vs -.10; the government seems to be giving individual investors a little bit of a subsidy with the +.05 rate you quote). If inte...
by ANC
Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any S&P 500 Lovers Out There?
Replies: 32
Views: 4317

Re: Any S&P 500 Lovers Out There?

It looks like where people actually put there money by weight did a little better than the average fund. Maybe the word is getting out that costs matter , and the smart money is being put in lower cost funds. It's good to see people are realizing the shortcomings of equal weigthing all funds in per...
by ANC
Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any S&P 500 Lovers Out There?
Replies: 32
Views: 4317

Re: Any S&P 500 Lovers Out There?

It is my second largest holding and largest passive one. Have held somebody's version of it since 1997.

There are so many indexes around, it's hard to keep track, so I might as well keep with the tried and true. For similar reasons, my international index fund uses the MSCI EAFE.
by ANC
Sun May 29, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth Taking?
Replies: 20
Views: 3426

Re: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth Taking?

All very good, but since credit spreads tend to widen when equities decline, it seems at the very least a comparison between credit spreads and forward returns on equities is necessary to determine if investing in junk has been the preferable option, or if investors would have been better off plowi...
by ANC
Tue May 24, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your first investment?
Replies: 117
Views: 8175

Re: What was your first investment?

Kemper Money Market Fund during the high inflation of the late 1970's. If I recall correctly, during its peak it was earning something like 1.2%-1.5% per month (not year).
by ANC
Tue May 10, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?
Replies: 11
Views: 3244

Re: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?

In other words most Americans prefer a gold mine, because they don't want to sit around and wait a few decades for the trees to grow. My way of looking at this is that most people use a payback-period analysis and not present value. This, however, does not reconcile with Bernstein's finding that pe...
by ANC
Tue May 10, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax
Replies: 47
Views: 7128

Re: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax

Sure, there may be some defaults, but that broad diversification means that I should not see great losses and the bond fund will act like a bond fund is supposed to act in preserving assets. I am kind of new here but one issue I see is that the problem may not stop at the defaults. It could also sp...
by ANC
Tue May 10, 2016 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?
Replies: 11
Views: 3244

Re: Classic Bernstein 5 — What’s a Thing Worth?

Simplegift, This one is based on manufactured data that is much cleaner than real-world data and the trade-offs seem obvious. At first glance, there is little to discuss. One factor to add is what if we're wrong on the interest rate projections. The answer depends on the amount and skewness which ma...
by ANC
Mon May 09, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax
Replies: 47
Views: 7128

Re: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax

Abuss368, Thanks for bringing up this topic. One thing this post assumes is that munis are the fund of first choice for those with a comparatively large taxable account. This is true for high income investors who exceed their maximums, but there are other routes to a large taxable account that do no...
by ANC
Fri May 06, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors
Replies: 43
Views: 7001

Re: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors

Larry,

Thanks for the comment. I have picked up snippets of this advice from you and others on this list. Together with bonds in taxable, it is the most useful advice I have found on this list.