Search found 624 matches

by selters
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4355

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Edit: I don't want to go into an argument over when the third millennium started. The explanation given above on timeanddate.com makes sense.
by selters
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else in frontier markets?
Replies: 31
Views: 1537

Re: Anyone else in frontier markets?

I purchased a few shares of FM in 2014 that I still own. I'm not terribly excited about owning them based on five years of performance, but I don't sell an investment based on five years of performance oŕ how I feel about it. Frontier Markets are part of the global investable stock market, so I own ...
by selters
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying dips not recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 3755

Re: Buying dips not recommended?

Yes, many of us do. We usually call it rebalancing. If you are young and have small portfolio to annual savings ratio, then you should probably not be afraid to sell bonds to purchase stocks. Many older investors—which, of course, you can define however you like—only rebalance from stocks to bonds, ...
by selters
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the real contrarians please stand up?
Replies: 58
Views: 3954

Re: Will the real contrarians please stand up?

I thought US was 48% of world GDP. What's your source? I'm 50% US equities, with the rest split evenly between DM/EM. US was 48% of global market cap a few years ago. Now it's more like 53%. But US GDP is only about 25% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://www.in...
by selters
Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Get greedy when others are fearful?
Replies: 14
Views: 1965

Re: Get greedy when others are fearful?

masonstone wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:46 pm
Market timing doesn’t work
Well, for what it's worth, historical evidence suggests that disciplined rebalancing from bonds to stocks when stocks fall provides you with a higher risk-adjusted return (compared to just letting it ride, I would expect).
by selters
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14703

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

0.5% real return for US large cap the coming decade? That can’t be right. People said that in 2000, too. As if the 20% annual returns from 1995-2000 weren't likely to cannibalize much of the returns of the 2000s. But valuations aren't close now to what they were in 2000. So unless earnings don't co...
by selters
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter
Replies: 12
Views: 3088

Re: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter

I think these stats are meaningless. The Twitter account @OddStats has grown very rapidly in the last six months. They say they started the account to spew out meaningless data mined statistics just to illustrate how much worthless data there is out there. But the financial media don't seem to care ...
by selters
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14703

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Many "international" companies (Nestle, BP, Alibaba, just to name a few) are listed on US stock exchanges or have US ADRs and therefore are included in US indices like the S&P 500, which makes them part and parcel of portfolios containing "US stocks". That ceased to be the case in something like 19...
by selters
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another newbie investor who's feeling the pain and would like advice
Replies: 46
Views: 5134

Re: Another newbie investor who's feeling the pain and would like advice

Sell the Apple stock, take the loss and buy an index fund. Luckily the whole market is also down, not just AAPL.
by selters
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 7920

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

This market drawdown feels different now than other corrections that I’ve experienced since I started investing in 2012. But that’s probably because this is the first time a few months of contributions for me will not cover my losses. Logically I know very well that the market may turn at any point....
by selters
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 6103

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

Hasn't he been saying this since 1996? Or at least 2011? The same with Schiller and Sharpe?

But then again, Greenspan may be right. We might see 10 years of flat to negative returns also.
by selters
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1781700

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

cnbc is reporting that this is the worst December for the market since the great depression. As I have posted in the past, the reporting is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Who cares about worst December? If it wasn’t the worst December, the media would report on something else, such as worst D...
by selters
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)
Replies: 2
Views: 178

Re: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)

MSCI UK Index Gross Return USD: Google msci UK index. The first link will be a pdf with a fact sheet about the msci UK index. It has annual returns for every year since 2003, but says that the annualized return since 1994 has been about 6.2%. If you want to go even further back you can use the chart...
by selters
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 128
Views: 7327

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I will not use VMVFX as a "core" equity holding in my portfolio. I'm just going to keep it simple with equity funds (with not much tilt), bond funds, TIPs and CD's. I don't believe there are any magic elixirs out there when in comes to investing, perhaps a few high frequency trading groups that tak...
by selters
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Company 401K Investment Choices
Replies: 3
Views: 208

Re: New Company 401K Investment Choices

Looks great! Very Boglehead-esque.
by selters
Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT $60, VTI $134 [iShares Total US vs. Vanguard Total Market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1348

Re: ITOT $60, VTI $134

... I haven't dug deep but ITOT is the S&P1500 while VTI is the CRSP Total Market, so these look to be not substantially identical to me; could be a 4th fund to harvest into... ITOT is no longer the S&P 1500, they changed the index the fund tracks to the "S&P Total Market Index" Thanks. Still diffe...
by selters
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 92
Views: 14231

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Why do you care about whether or not this is a correction or bear market? Do you care whether we are below or above the 200 day moving average? Do you care whether we are above or below the Bollinger bands? Bear market and correction are arbitrary quantitative measures. If you don't care about techn...
by selters
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stuck with Wells Fargo 401k: What to do?
Replies: 23
Views: 1492

Re: Stuck with Wells Fargo 401k: What to do?

Hi everyone, I recently changed jobs, moving from a megacorp with excellent 401k options, to a much smaller company. The new company uses Wells Fargo as 401k admin and I'm stuck with fund options which I think are terrible . Did you mean terrific? The options look excellent to me. Use the Blackrock...
by selters
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds
Replies: 103
Views: 18507

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

I have been suggesting active/passive portfolios for those worried that markets might become inefficient if indexing gets too popular. Maybe 20% active and 80% passive, using lower cost active funds like what Vanguard offers. It might be that indexers might have to make a contribution to keep the m...
by selters
Wed Nov 28, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation—no bonds at all for a young(ish) and broke(ish) investor?
Replies: 49
Views: 2824

Re: Asset allocation—no bonds at all for a young(ish) and broke(ish) investor?

A ratio that is often overlooked is the total portfolio value to annual contributions ratio. If you have only one to two years worth of contributions in your portfolio, it is fine have a five to ten percent allocation to bonds, only to learn about them. As your portfolio grows and you grow older, yo...
by selters
Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for $5,500
Replies: 8
Views: 1082

Re: Asset allocation for $5,500

The OP's suggestion is certainly Bogleheads approved. One of very many Bogleheads approved portfolios. All other suggestions in this thread are also some very fine portfolios.
by selters
Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 143
Views: 11658

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

Vanguard small cap value index is much more midcap than small cap value Whenever the VG SCV is accused of not being small and value enough, IJS is mentioned. It also underperformed SCG: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2003&firstMonth=11&endYear=2018...
by selters
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1781700

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Paying attention to whether the market is in a pullback, correction, bear market or crash is no more helpful than paying attention to whether the market is below/above its 200 day moving average, within a Bollinger band, overbought/oversold or any other quantitative measure from technical analysis, ...
by selters
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mid and Small Caps?
Replies: 38
Views: 3268

Re: Mid and Small Caps?

Interestingly, there are only about five stocks that overlap if you compare the ~300 stocks in the CRSP US Mid Cap Index with the 400 stocks on the S&P Mid Cap 400 Index. The companies in the CRSP index have a much higher market cap than the companies in the S&P index. If you compare the holdings of...
by selters
Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE
Replies: 34
Views: 3148

Re: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE

I am not certain if Vanguard or ishares can do anything about that, since the funds have to follow the index; i.e. they must have the same shares as the index. What's the expense ratio of the European index fund domiciled in your home country? Is it following a broad European index or maybe somethi...
by selters
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE
Replies: 34
Views: 3148

Re: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE

0.18% sounds high for Europe. But I may be wrong. I calculated the the percentage for a European index fund domiciled in my home country for 2017 and its tax costs was in the 0.07-0.08% range. The same asset manager runs an MSCI USA fund and an MSCI Emerging Markets fund. Gross of their expense rati...
by selters
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE
Replies: 34
Views: 3148

Re: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE

Really? A European would overweight Europe because of the low dividend tax leakage? I think that makes sense. Not by a lot. But 5%, maybe. It's the same kind of reasoning for US investors. US stocks make up 52% of world market cap, but even if you are an efficient markets absolutist, it makes sense...
by selters
Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE
Replies: 34
Views: 3148

Re: 32 yo - Investment Plan/Retirement Portfolio - CZECH & EUROPE

I posted a similar topic basically at the same time, just living in Finland :D The plan seems well-thought and reasonable. I'm doing your option B for my equities, just have EM and SC both with weight 12.5%. I too have found these to be the best choices for a balanced portfolio. Also the Europe ETF...
by selters
Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107926

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

You're both wrong. Global ex-US has returned 91% since the beginning of 2000 (not 191%), or an annualized 3.51% compounded return. I'm pretty sure you're using returns from a net return index or returns from an actual fund, which subtracts foreign withholding taxes and the expense ratio from the fu...
by selters
Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107926

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It's just that comparing current price of VGTSX to the price in 2000 doesn't tell you much about compounded returns with dividends reinvested, which turns out to have been 91% which is not really "going nowhere" since 2000. Besides, it's misleading because VGTSX delivered similar returns to U.S. st...
by selters
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107926

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Then it's REALLY good news the entire world outside the USA has gone nowhere in 10 years. Absolute garbage :oops: Kind of like how the U.S. market went nowhere for the 10 years comprising the 2000s. Was that absolute garbage too? Actually, the ex-US index is only a little above what it reached in 2...
by selters
Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107926

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Europe + Japan make up about 60% of ex-US. What’s the basis for expecting any kind of significant economic expansion in those areas over the next decade? The US very well may be headed for a dark period, but I wouldn’t look to those areas to save the day. Waiting around mean reversion (which might ...
by selters
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy car cash or take low rate loan
Replies: 33
Views: 1928

Re: Buy car cash or take low rate loan

Remember also to finance your next sofa, bed, kitchen remodel, AC, solar panels, whatever, if you can get 0% financing. It's a free loan, right, so why not invest the money now and pay monthly payments on your consumption items?
by selters
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: For real liquid cod liver oil.........?
Replies: 16
Views: 1224

Re: For real liquid cod liver oil.........?

The brand (Peter Möller's) that's marketed as Carlson's cod liver oil in the US has been produced for 100+ years. Look for the green translucent bottle with "Peter Möller" engraved on it. I'm sure there are other good products on the market, but this one's the original. Disclaimer: I'm from the prod...
by selters
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 127
Views: 15684

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

If markets are efficient, is the expected risk adjusted return of Sears and Amazon stock the same?
by selters
Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?
Replies: 77
Views: 8864

Re: Why do we expect TSM to keep growing?

Does TSM have to grow for investors to make money? As long as dividends and buybacks continue, you as an investor can own a growing slice of the no longer growing TSM pie if you reinvest your dividends. Does a brewery have to produce more and more beer every year for its owners to make a profit? It ...
by selters
Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 2070

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Small cap minus junk seems pretty consistent, even for short time periods.
by selters
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off 3.125% 152k mortgage early?
Replies: 37
Views: 3258

Re: Pay off 3.125% 152k mortgage early?

If keeping the mortgage for as long as possible and investing in the stock market instead is a good idea, why not refinance the mortgage up to 80% loan to value ratio every five years or so? That must be an even better idea? The more leverage you use, the higher the returns, right?
by selters
Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are equivalents of VTI and VXUS in Europe?
Replies: 8
Views: 869

Re: What are equivalents of VTI and VXUS in Europe?

SPY S&P 500 SPDW Ex-US Developed Also VT is Total World Fidelity and Schwab have similar offerings. Anything that is low fee, passive, with high volume is generally good. If you list all of them, we can help you more. I need VTI and VXUS equivelents. VTI - total US VXUS - total non-US There are no ...
by selters
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4878

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Absolutely. The fwd p/e of the S&P 500, which is abou 17.5. Stocks are only expensive now if earnings are at a cyclical high. They may not revert back down as much as tvey have in the past.
by selters
Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please look at my portfolio and give me advice [Norway]
Replies: 18
Views: 1552

Re: Please look at my portfolio and give me advice [Norway]

, Norway is probably the second best country in the world for index fund investors, after the USA. And why is that? I've just been in the investing game for around a year so I'm curious. Seems like most other countries skipped the traditional index mutual fund step and jumped straight to ETFs. Yes,...
by selters
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please look at my portfolio and give me advice [Norway]
Replies: 18
Views: 1552

Re: Please look at my portfolio and give me advice [Norway]

It's fine as it is. If you for tax reasons have to keep KLP Aksjeverden and KLP Aksjeglobal V, then that's fine, but be aware that there's a lot of overlap between these two funds and the S&P 500 fund, the Europe fund and the EM fund. So consider dropping these two KLP funds. There is no optimal sol...
by selters
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US small cap ETF: MSCI US small, S&P600 or Russell 2000? (UK based investor)
Replies: 10
Views: 887

Re: US small cap ETF: MSCI US small, S&P600 or Russell 2000? (UK based investor)

Out of all active decisions a passive investor can make, choosing a "small cap minus junk" fund rather than a total small cap market fund seems to be the best documented. The tendency of stocks of profitable companies to outperform stocks of unprofitable companies among small caps seems to be very p...
by selters
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time for new phone, Buy or Lease?
Replies: 30
Views: 2185

Re: Time for new phone, Buy or Lease?

What's the major difference between a $300 phone and an $700/800 phone? Battery life? Optical or sound quality? The camera, first and foremost. If you want to buy Samsung, but still want decent performance and a good camera, the S7 is probably the best value. It costs a third of a new S9, but still...
by selters
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Fund Investing in Sweden, for Swede's
Replies: 12
Views: 841

Re: Index Fund Investing in Sweden, for Swede's

Use an Internet broker, such as Nordnet, to buy index funds: https://www.nordnet.se/mux/web/fonder/sok.html?nn_kategori=104%7Cglobal&kategori=&forvaltare=&sokord=&sok=1&ppm=0&nobuy=&flik=&nm=nn_kategori%2Bglobal&typ=1 For minimum costs, but some extra work, use Ireland listed ETFs from iShares liste...
by selters
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107926

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Although at times it's felt like eg. European stocks have been hopeless over the last few years, in local currency terms, the MSCI Europe index have these returns since 2012: 18%, 20%, 7%, 8%, 3% 11% and 4% YTD. This is in line with, or even slightly above what one can reasonably expect from the sto...
by selters
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in international?
Replies: 40
Views: 9793

Re: Why invest in international?

If foreign and US markets are reasonably efficient, then not only do American companies need to continue to do better than international companies for American stocks to continue to outperform, but they need to do even better than markets are currently expecting. Said in other words,the higher earni...
by selters
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 106
Views: 12309

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Turkey's stock market had a P/E of 7 (and a forward P/E of 6) on 31 July. TUR (iShares Turkey ETF) is down 35% since then. It may be a candidate for some play money. But have an entry/exit strategy, because this may be going to 0. I don't think so, but I wouldn't be absolutely shocked to see Turkey'...