Search found 457 matches

by selters
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best home exercise equipment?
Replies: 96
Views: 7548

Re: What is the best home exercise equipment?

Never buy any budget or even mid-range treadmills, rowers, spin bikes or ellipticals, especially not if you are over 200 lbs. Concept 2 is the only game in town for rowers. Premium treadmills or ellipticals from Cybex or Precor are generally only meant for commercial gyms, but anything else is usele...
by selters
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2359

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

The iShares MSCI Diversified Multiple Factor ETFs outperformed cap weighted ETFs in developed markets ex US and in emerging markets in the last 1 and 3 years. This applies both to small caps and large caps. In the US, small caps have outperformed in the last 3 years, but not in the last 1 years. For...
by selters
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17585

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

OP seems to be mixing together two separate concepts: — Market timing ("With CAPE at the second highest level in history and the U.S. stock market acting bubblicious these days") — An older investor's AA as determined by his or her IPS I think a responsible older investor would already be reducing ...
by selters
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25 Year Old - Need help with picking 401k funds
Replies: 15
Views: 936

Re: 25 Year Old - Need help with picking 401k funds

I'm reading about the allocations on the wiki and its honestly is just hard to understand. I will try to read it a couple of times. Thanks! You could do a lot worse than the target retirement date fund that's been chosen for you. You don't really need to change anything in the near future. You can ...
by selters
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 3027

Re: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?

The "equal-weighted" ETF actually weights some stocks more than 15 times as much as others. How come? It is not unthinkable that the worst performing small cap stocks will have fallen 80% and the best performing stocks will have risen 200% over the course of, say, one year. If the fund is rebalance...
by selters
Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge difference in holdings between Vanguard Mid Cap ETF and iShares S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF
Replies: 3
Views: 304

Huge difference in holdings between Vanguard Mid Cap ETF and iShares S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF

Since I live in Europe and the new Mifid 2 rules may prohibit European investors from purchasing (but not holding) US listed ETFs in the future I wanted to buy some iShares S&P 400 ETF (IJH) yesterday, before the doors close for European investors, but because of some problems with my broker, the or...
by selters
Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 141
Views: 7951

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

3551.09 (I've used the link as well)

A wild guess, but late stage bull markets tend to provide the highest gains.
by selters
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?
Replies: 7
Views: 1183

Quarter end last minute sell-off again! How to leverage as much as possible next time?

I was actually considering putting some play money into a 15x leveraged s&p 500 bear product 10 minutes before the close of today's trading day. But I didn't... On the last day of each quarter in the last couple of years, there's been a sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 in the last few minutes of the tr...
by selters
Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine
Replies: 41
Views: 6218

Re: Jack Bogle and Vanguard’s $5,000,000,000,000 Question - Philadelphia Magazine

I've raised the same question before, but not many Bogleheads agree when I say that there is a limit to how big Vanguard can become before some systemic problems might arise. If Vanguard continues to grow like they have in since the financial crisis, Vanguard will own 20-30% of all shares in all US ...
by selters
Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Samsung J3 or J7
Replies: 21
Views: 1421

Re: Samsung J3 or J7

iPhone SE has the iPhone 6 hardware in an iPhone 5 shell. Even if you only do simple stuff on your phone, the phone still has to run the operating system. The iPhone SE is probably a better buy than an iPhone 5/5S.
by selters
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9955

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

I'm seeing the bitcoin crash coming.
by selters
Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggested reading for Norwegian coast trip
Replies: 18
Views: 1042

Re: Suggested reading for Norwegian coast trip

As a Norwegian myself, I can recommend this book, even if it is not a novel: https://www.amazon.com/Norwegian-Wood-Chopping-Stacking-Scandinavian/dp/B01MEE92O8 While the title of the book may give the impression that it is a how-to book, it is more of a popular scientific insight into the culture an...
by selters
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?
Replies: 100
Views: 14033

Re: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 am
W Buffet has 30 billion, he is 80s and still haw money on the table.
Yes, but he also says to keep enough cash to sleep well at night. Berkshire Hathaway has $60bn in cash or cash equivalents.
by selters
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?
Replies: 37
Views: 3244

Re: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?

I'm thinking that maybe a rational strategy for these bubble type asset classes is to jump on them if you see them forming (choose a definition beforehand) and then use a something like a 200 day moving average strategy to get out once they collapse. I don't have much data to support this strategy. ...
by selters
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?
Replies: 13
Views: 856

Re: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?

If you have 100% stocks and 0% bonds, you won't have any cash or bonds to rebalance with. With that being said, don't expect a periodically rebalanced 60/40 or 80/20 portfolio to outperform a 100/0 portfolio over the long term. Rebalancing is not magic. selters, The real world does not have to meet...
by selters
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?
Replies: 13
Views: 856

Re: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?

If you have 100% stocks and 0% bonds, you won't have any cash or bonds to rebalance with.

With that being said, don't expect a periodically rebalanced 60/40 or 80/20 portfolio to outperform a 100/0 portfolio over the long term. Rebalancing is not magic.
by selters
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4938

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad, Why should a balanced index fund investor accept that this is bad? If a hypothetical lack of shareholder activism served to discourage boards and executives from making shareholder-friendly pol...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4938

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

Selters: You wrote: Except for Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF (VSS), which there is no low cost option for, I don't use any Vanguard funds or ETFs. Why? Is it because you are Norwegian? Is it because of "Tragedy of the Commons?" What companies do you use? Your many posts have been very...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4938

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

The objections, which I believe you are misinterpreting, are never solely about Vanguard, but about indexing and passive ownership in general. I don't buy the most common argument against indexing, namely that the trend towards indexing will damage price discovery in the markets. I don't buy the ar...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4938

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad, then investors should choose another index fund provider than Vanguard when there are low cost alternatives. Even if it may cost them a basis point or so of performance every year. In response ...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4938

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad... I don't accept that there is a problem with Vanguard holding 10% of the equity of each SP 500 company. 10% isn't that bad. But Vanguard's market share is growing very rapidly. Depending on ho...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4938

Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

I'm probably going to get some hate for saying this. But I think that so many people investing with Vanguard nowadays is a tragedy of the commons. Wikipedia says the tragedy of the commons is "an economic theory of a situation within a shared-resource system where individual users acting independent...
by selters
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 3706

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

Why does everbody use numbers from the late 90s to illustrate the fall in the number of publicly traded companies? Weren't the numbers back then artificially high for a few years?
by selters
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5520

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Chart comparing Vanguard S&P 500(VFINX) to Vanguard Midcap (VMCPX), Small Cap (VSCPX) and Vanguard Total Market (VTSAX) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShow...
by selters
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5520

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Because of S&P liquidity and profitability screens, over half of the companies whose stocks belong to a total US stock market index are smaller than any company in IJR. Not saying that's a bad thing, but this fund tracks an index (S&P600) that is in turn part of the S&P 1500 Composite index (roughl...
by selters
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 2055

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

Nobody gets the gross return of the MSCI Emerging Markets index. Gross return means returns gross of any withholding taxes levied upon dividends from the companies in the index by the home country of the company. If the average dividend yield over the period was 2% and the withholding tax was 30%, t...
by selters
Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5799

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

(Shrug) A very common way to counter indexing is to give up on trying to convince people not to do it at all, and focus on convincing them only to do it with part of their money and invest the rest your way. Until you can show me that Ramsey is recommending balanced portfolios with nonzero bond all...
by selters
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Multi-year investment results by Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 961

Re: Question: Multi-year investment results by Vanguard

pkcrafter wrote:
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:47 am
I would not find that to be of much help,
I agree that it probably wouldn't be of much help in an absolute sense. But then again, are 3, 5 and 10 year returns very helpful? Just as 3 and 5 year returns are nice, 15 and 20 year returns would also be nice.
by selters
Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing is profitable?
Replies: 6
Views: 887

Re: Rebalancing is profitable?

Proftable if there is mean reversion between the asset classes or sub-asset classes you're rebalancing between. Unprofitable if not.
by selters
Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 710
Views: 35158

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I'm currently in 2nd place. Unfortunately the S&P 500 has to fall by 4 points for me to end up in 1st place :( But I could live with that. Maybe I could make a living out of giving interviews to the financial media just because a complete shot in the dark accidentally hit the target. 8-)
by selters
Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building very high net worth
Replies: 81
Views: 8826

Re: Building very high net worth

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:15 am
No, that is reality.
So you have to be in the top 1% to be considered quite wealthy?
by selters
Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual funds portfolio (Europe)
Replies: 4
Views: 382

Re: Mutual funds portfolio (Europe)

Hi, I don't have much experience investing and this is my first year trying to set up a retirement portfolio. Because I want to make monthly contributions, I choose to invest on mutual funds. I haven't invested that much money yet and my emergency funds almost equals my portfolio value, so I decide...
by selters
Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 8502

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

Interesting that their structure would return economies of scale to the investors but then back that out if the AUM dropped due to a market decline. Isn't that exactly what Vanguard does too? They run their funds at cost. AFAIK Vanguard ERs were higher in 2008 and 2009 than 2007, because of the mar...
by selters
Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intro Portfolio Advice
Replies: 6
Views: 551

Re: Intro Portfolio Advice

Looks good!

Take note that SCHF (Schwab International Equity ETF) does not contain any emerging markets. Consider adding some SCHE (Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF).
by selters
Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intriguing: S&P 1000 ETF (70% S&P 400/30% S&P 600)
Replies: 10
Views: 1701

Re: Intriguing: S&P 1000 ETF (70% S&P 400/30% S&P 600)

The expense ratio of this fund is now 0.05%. It also has a new ticker: SPMD (https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-portfolio-mid-cap-etf-SPMD) Some people prefer the S&P indexes for small and mid caps over indexes that include all small and mid caps, because financial viability screens in the S&P indexes...
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3857

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

David Scubadiver wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:06 pm
Besides having your terminology confused, your hypothetical makes no sense since there is no circumstance in which one could possibly be so limited.
We've seen worse 401k options many times on this very forum.
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3857

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

What if framed the question like this: If you could only hold Apple and the bottom 1000 stocks in TSM, would you hold them at market weight? If you could only hold the top five stocks in the US and the bottom 2000, would you hold them at market weight? If you could only hold the top 50 stocks in the...
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3857

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

The reason I'm asking is that every now and then the question comes up, is market cap weighting the best way to invest? Isn't it too concentrated in its top holdings? And then we get the usual string of replies, like market cap weighting is the most diversified, market cap weighting is on the effici...
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3857

Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

If you had to choose, which equity exposure would you rather have, 100% Apple stock or 100% S&P 600 small cap index? I'm wondering, since they have approximately the same market cap. Apple is worth $803 billion and the combined value of the constituents in the S&P 600 is $780 billion. Total stock ma...
by selters
Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 5156

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

my guess for the S&P 500 moved from 110th to 33rd in 6 days in the BH contest Darn, you beat me :( I'm at 42nd. Maybe stocks are going up because alternatives are lousy. But that was not the case in 2000. Intermediate term bonds yielded something like 7% back then, but still CAPE reached >40. If lo...
by selters
Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5303

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

Everywhere I look, share buybacks and dividends are viewed as roughly the same thing but I don't understand how that is. With share buybacks, the company buys its own shares and therefore there are less shares outstanding. The EPS rise and therefore the stock prices rise. With dividends, when the c...
by selters
Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which # by market cap is the smallest S&P 500 constituent?
Replies: 3
Views: 1150

Which # by market cap is the smallest S&P 500 constituent?

Contrary to popular belief, the S&P 500 does not consist of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US. The S&P 500 (and many other S&P indices) have liquidity and profitability screens that need to be passed to make it into the S&P 500. Also, the index has constraints to make sure that eve...
by selters
Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in ETFs MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Market [Germany]
Replies: 18
Views: 1408

Re: Investing in ETFs MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Market [Germany]

If you live in Germany, surely you can buy any stock or ETF traded on the German stock market, right? Look for these tickers on Deutsche Börse EUNL: iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (ER 0.20%) IS3N: iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF (ER 0.25%) And the commission should be a lot lower than 1.50%, m...
by selters
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Current 401k Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1216

Re: My Current 401k Allocation

Moving out of the target date fund was probably a wise choice, since costs are higher in actively managed funds. But you moved into other actively managed funds with pretty high costs. You might want to reconsider those choices. The Bogleheads investment philosophy says that you should use index fun...
by selters
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are long-term market returns reliable?
Replies: 38
Views: 4438

Re: The myth about long-run stock returns

So when did the worst 30 year period end? And are these real or nominal returns?
by selters
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds added to 401k
Replies: 15
Views: 1325

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds added to 401k

2) I am wanting to get an AA of 80/20 (stock/bond) and with the stock breakdown being about 66/33 (domestic/international). Just be aware that the Target funds are 60/40 US/international. In my opinion this is close enough to your desired 66/33 that the difference is worth the simplicity and ER sav...
by selters
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off debt vs. max savings
Replies: 53
Views: 6107

Re: Paying off debt vs. max savings

What order you do things in is less important than how much you save, invest or pay down debt. $50,000 a year in the wrong order will always trump $40,000 in the right order.