Search found 694 matches

by selters
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on sector rotation - March 2024?
Replies: 20
Views: 1170

Re: Any thoughts on sector rotation - March 2024?

Freeman2025 wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:36 pm Curious as to what sectors people think we should be rotating into (or out of) at this phase of the cycle (March 2024). Thanks in advance for any thoughts.
There's little to no evidence you can systematically tactically allocate in and out of stock market sectors. Bogleheads sometimes debate which geographical regions or stock market factors to overweight or underweight, but not sectors.
by selters
Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:06 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂
Replies: 429
Views: 43315

Re: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂

Happy birthday, Mr. Larimore! :sharebeer
by selters
Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?
Replies: 245
Views: 24670

Re: S&P 500 concentration risk: Should we be worried?

Most likely you'll be fine just staying with a standard index fund. That being said, if you go back to the old Bogleheads forum at Morningstar from the tech bubble in 2000, all worries about sector concentration and high valuations back then were dismissed as noise. From March 2000 it took about 12 years to get back to even in nominal terms in an S&P 500 index fund.
by selters
Sat May 13, 2023 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loving the unloved mids...
Replies: 39
Views: 7914

Re: Loving the unloved mids...

If you guys had to pick a Midcap Fund - would you pick the S&P 400 (IJH) or CRSP Midcap (VO)? The CRSP Midcap Index has a much much larger avg Market-cap size. Based on M* metrics - the S&P 400 (Midcap) index is practically half Midcap & half Smallcap. Is there performance data for the CRSP Midcap index for say 20/25/30 years to be able to compare to the S&P 400 Midcap index? Despite their overlapping names, there's pretty much no overlap in terms of holdings between VO and IJH. VO holds about the 200th to the 600th largest public companies in the US. IJH holds 400 stocks from about the 600th larges to the 1200th largest public companies in the US. VO has small large caps. IJH has large small caps. The ETF scan tool at ETF ...
by selters
Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?
Replies: 134
Views: 13576

Re: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?

GreenLawn wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:38 am
selters wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:36 am In Boglehead terms you'll achieve the same if you rebalance (or maybe over-rebalance) out of bonds and into stocks when stocks fall.
As long as you call it rebalancing and not market timing, you'll receive the Boglehead blessing :wink:
Exactly!
by selters
Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?
Replies: 134
Views: 13576

Re: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?

In Boglehead terms you'll achieve the same if you rebalance (or maybe over-rebalance) out of bonds and into stocks when stocks fall.
by selters
Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Risks of owning Deutsche Bank Swap/Synthetic ETF
Replies: 5
Views: 1161

Risks of owning Deutsche Bank Swap/Synthetic ETF

If you live in Europe and you want to own the S&P 500 in the most tax efficient way, Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF and Xtrackers S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF 1C offer you superior performance to e.g. iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, since there is no dividend tax leakage in the swap/synthetic based ETFs. Just check out historical performance yourself. However, I hear there's some counterparty risk in these ETFs. What would happen if Deutsche Bank were to go under in a banking crisis? Would you as a shareholder in these ETFs lose everything?
by selters
Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: 🎊Happy 99th Birthday to Taylor Larimore🎉
Replies: 247
Views: 15932

Re: 🎊Happy 99th Birthday to Taylor Larimore🎉

Happy birthday from Norway! Thank you for your participation in freeing Europe during WW2 and thank you for your helpful posts on the Bogleheads forum.
by selters
Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why diversify past total stock market
Replies: 149
Views: 16754

Re: Why diversify past total stock market

ClassII wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:17 pmEx-US has lagged for as long as most people have been alive and I'm just not seeing much in the world that is going to change things.
No. Ex US has lagged since 2011. That's it. From 1945 to 2011 returns between US and ex US were identical.
by selters
Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total International Index fund dividends shrinking ? Am I wrong?
Replies: 42
Views: 15504

Re: Total International Index fund dividends shrinking ? Am I wrong?

Stronger dollar makes the total dividend from international stock shrink (in USD terms).
by selters
Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cheapest S&P 400 Index Fund for IRA?
Replies: 9
Views: 1381

Re: Cheapest S&P 400 Index Fund for IRA?

pkcrafter wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:22 pm Vanguard's mid cap index might be a good choice. Expense ratio is 0.05%, but minimum is $3,000.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... fees/vimax

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vimax/quote

Note: I hope you are not buying based on recent performance.


Paul
It's not intuitive, but there's virtually NO overlap between the Vanguard mid cap etf and the s&p 400 mid cap etf. Vanguard mid cap contains small large caps. S&p 400 mid cap contains large small caps.

Compare the portfolios of VO and IJH at ETF Research Center here: https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php
by selters
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you use a password manager?
Replies: 361
Views: 34462

Re: Do you use a password manager?

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:16 pm I just write the passwords down. No, not on the back of my hand (that’s for phone numbers and grocery lists), I use a sheet of paper called “Passwords.” It’s old school, but it works.
And unhackable.
by selters
Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio still relevant without adjustments?
Replies: 17
Views: 2779

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio still relevant without adjustments?

Yes, I believe a 60 40 portfolio will do just fine over the next ten or twenty years. With no adjustments.
by selters
Sat May 28, 2022 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Low Volatility the best factor?
Replies: 39
Views: 4969

Re: Is Low Volatility the best factor?

If I were to deviate from straight indexing and invest in one factor for the rest of my investing lifetime, it would have to be some kind of quality factor. MSCIs quality indexes have been steady outperformers in pretty much any region over pretty much any Five year time horizon.
by selters
Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: shocking Total Bond fund returns
Replies: 140
Views: 20242

Re: shocking total bond returns

Artful Dodger wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:51 am I buy into the efficient markets theory and am comfortable with the pure BH approach to equity markets, but on the bond side when you have increasing inflation and the Federal Reserve telling you they’re going to raise rates multiple times in the future, you can’t really say “Nobody knows nothing”.
Those hikes are already priced in.
by selters
Sat Mar 12, 2022 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Stock Allocation
Replies: 155
Views: 16708

Re: International Stock Allocation

6NDone wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:44 am Stick with 100% US, your future self will thank you. There’s a lot of literature out there hyping international and how “the next year or decade will be the year international shines.” Spoiler alert: it never has and never does.
That is a complete falsehood. Between 1945 and 2009 the performance of US and ex US stocks was identical. All of the outperformance of US stocks since WW2 has come after 2009.
by selters
Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What emerging markets funds hold Russian stocks?
Replies: 151
Views: 16643

Re: What emerging markets funds hold Russian stocks?

"not very happy about index or factor funds actively deciding to sell Russian stocks after a 50-80% drop. It seems like this may actually happen. I invest in rules based funds (market cap weighted index funds or factor funds) specifically to avoid these kinds of emotional decisions on part of the fund manager." Me too. What is the alternative that you are suggesting? The US sanctions effectively bar us funds from trading in Russian securities. I suggest the funds hold still; do nothing. The money is lost entirely at this time. Perhaps Russia withdraws- says "oops, sorry, my mistake, spasibo." The market could still recover somewhat at least. Index funds follow the index. The index is removing the stocks because they are...
by selters
Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What emerging markets funds hold Russian stocks?
Replies: 151
Views: 16643

Re: What emerging markets funds hold Russian stocks?

Most (or all) EM index funds hold Russian stocks.

My allocation to Russian stocks is less than half a percent of my portfolio, so I'm not that concerned anyway. In principle, however, I am not very happy about index or factor funds actively deciding to sell Russian stocks after a 50-80% drop. It seems like this may actually happen. I invest in rules based funds (market cap weighted index funds or factor funds) specifically to avoid these kinds of emotional decisions on part of the fund manager.

https://www.reuters.com/business/exclus ... 022-02-28/
by selters
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...
Replies: 601
Views: 72786

Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

CraigTester wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:50 pm Jeremy is definitely not a Boglehead.

But the interviewer almost sounds like he might be....

Interesting exchange..... Do any of Jeremy's thoughts cause anyone to rethink their IPS, or does everyone on this forum just dismiss him...?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlEGU2ypr1Q
I think it's totally possible (at least imaginable) that US stocks will deliver negative real returns over the next decade. But Grantham needs to be called out on his doomsday preaching and 90% crash predictions.
by selters
Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Reminder: Is the Value Premium Smaller Than Originally Thought?
Replies: 129
Views: 9251

Re: Rational Reminder: Is the Value Premium Smaller Than Originally Thought?

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:11 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:53 am Can it really be measured other than in hindsight? Can't we only say what the value premium was over a time period, not what it is?
Correct. One could possibly hope that SCV would continue outperforming the market, but fundamentally there's no reason why they must outperform.
It it has higher volatility ("risk"), it should also have higher returns. If the market is efficient, asset classes should have the same risk-adjusted returns).
by selters
Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VXUS why do you guys ever invest [Vanguard Total International Stock]
Replies: 304
Views: 29413

Re: VXUS why do you guys ever invest

Looking at VXUS graph last 10 years it has gone from 50 (~Jan'2011) to 65 as of today with highs and lows all over last 10 years. If I compare that with VTI its night and day difference in returns. So essentially last 10 years VXUS has been completely flat to ~20-25% returns, not even beating inflation over last 10 years. So my question is, I understand past is not guarantee for future but 10 years is a long long time for VXUS to show that exponential growth, it has not even doubled in last 10 years while VTI has gone places. Why invest in VXUS at all ? For the folks that are investing what returns you expect, remember mediocre returns is same as losing money to inflation, even US real estate over last 10 years have outperformed VXUS big t...
by selters
Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Individual stocks are you buying?
Replies: 222
Views: 28552

Re: What Individual stocks are you buying?

I don't memorize ticker symbols (especially not of single stocks), so I have no idea what you are talking about.
by selters
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the S&P 500 Still a Diversified Portfolio?
Replies: 84
Views: 12399

Re: Is the S&P 500 Still a Diversified Portfolio?

brybogle wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:48 am In 1990, the top S&P 500 holding was IBM. In 2000, it was GE. In 2010, it was Exxon. As these companies declined, it was balanced by the rise of Apple and Amazon, which were also in the S&P 500.

The winners balance out the losers. And so it will be as tech falls out of favor, you will own increasing percentages of the new hot sectors. So, it "naturally" rebalances and diversifies itself in a sense.
Just like the winners balanced out the losers from 2000 to 2010 (with an annualized return of minus one percent or so)?
by selters
Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Replies: 300
Views: 27222

Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds

MrCheapo wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am . But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.

Thoughts?
All US outperformance since WW2 has occurred in the last ten years.
by selters
Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Asko Dishwasher
Replies: 14
Views: 1842

Re: Asko Dishwasher

Asko is a Swedish electronics manufacturer. It is a subsidiary of Gorenje that manufactures dishwashers (primarily) for the professional market. They've been in business since the 1950s. I think they are a perfectly fine manufacturer.
by selters
Sat Jul 03, 2021 2:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how dangerous is margin
Replies: 36
Views: 5216

Re: how dangerous is margin

lexor wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:10 pm If you leverage 15%, is it really that dangerous to use a margin account? Especially if you use portfolio margin and only buy broad market index funds? How much of a drop in the market could you handle? (I think you'd be able to take 6x leverage) How often do you need to "rebalance" your margin? i.e. re-correct your leverage to 15%.
Your lender may call your loan for any reason at any point (although the risk is likely higher during a significant fall in the market).
by selters
Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is 0% bonds appropriate?
Replies: 320
Views: 29485

Re: When is 0% bonds appropriate?

When you are young AND your expected future contributions are far greater than the size of your current portfolio.
by selters
Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Bogleheads idea I have a hard time understanding...
Replies: 108
Views: 17212

Re: One Bogleheads idea I have a hard time understanding...

Stocks should have a higher expected return than risk free bonds. If you can get 1% with no risk, then the stock market should at least give you more than 1% per year. Otherwise, a rational investor would not want to invest in stocks.
by selters
Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock
Replies: 254
Views: 16459

Re: International Stock

:moneybag
Cipro wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:34 pm What do you really gain from exposure to international equities indices? Over the years, I’m not sure what it adds to my portfolio. Why bother?
What do you really gain from exposure to value stocks? Over the years, I’m not sure what it adds to my portfolio. Why bother?
by selters
Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do growth stocks have a higher weighting in the market now than before? How would you measure that?
Replies: 10
Views: 787

Do growth stocks have a higher weighting in the market now than before? How would you measure that?

Lately people many people (I guess i should have some references to back up this statement, but I don't) have said that growth stocks now have a higher weighting in the total stock market index than, say, five or ten years ago. Does statement make sense? By what measure(s) can one say that that is true?

If the upper half of the market (by market cap) with the highest valuations are growth stocks and the lower half of the market by valuation are value stocks, then by definition growth stocks can never get a higher weighting in the market than value stocks, so that can't be what these people are saying.

Could anyone enlighten me?

Thanks
by selters
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
Replies: 164
Views: 25117

Re: We are NOT in a bubble

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:12 pm Greenspan said there was "irrational exuberance" on 12/5/1996. If you'd have listened to him and sold out of the market on 12/5/1996 what would you have lost out on?
On the other hand, if you listened to Greenspan and went to one of the two investment grade Vanguard bond funds available at the time, you'd find yourself ahead of the Vanguard 500 fund for significant time periods. You'd be ahead with intermediate term bonds as late as 2013 and you'd be ahead with long term bonds as late as December 2016:

Image
by selters
Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy 97th Birthday, Taylor Larimore
Replies: 146
Views: 12448

Re: Happy 97th Birthday, Taylor Larimore

Happy birthday, Taylor! I don't offend you addressing you with your first name, only. Every once in a while, when we want to stray off into active management, you always have a bunch of wise quotes to keep us index investors on track :D
by selters
Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 235
Views: 35888

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

Hodor wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:02 pm The current bull market is less than a year old. Not a good sign that the very first sentence is wrong.
Why is the quantitative indicator "bull market" any more useful than other quantitative indicators? Bogleheads frown upon quantitative indicators used by technical analysts, but still use the term as if it has any degree of significance.
by selters
Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market-cap weight skewed inaccurate by stocks, like BRK, holding other stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1597

Re: Is market-cap weight skewed inaccurate by stocks, like BRK, holding other stocks?

Let's say there are 20 billion shares of AAPL outstanding, at a market price of $100 each for a total of $2,000 billion. Let's say that at first Berkshire Hathaway owns none of it, then it buys 1 billion of those shares. So Berkshire Hathaway buying it doesn't change the number of outstanding shares. Meanwhile, if Berkshire Hathaway owns it, then nobody else owns it. The share only has one owner. It doesn't get counted twice. Let me just use some round numbers. AAPL market cap i $2,000 billion and is 5% of the S&P 500. Berkshire market cap is $400 billion, so Berkshire is 1% of the S&P 500. But Berkshire holds $100 billion in cash. If Berkshire spends this $100 billion to buy AAPL stock, then Berkshire's weighting in the index will...
by selters
Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?
Replies: 54
Views: 4949

Re: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?

warner25 wrote: Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:24 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:19 pm
rockstar wrote: Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:43 pmThe lower PE has more to do with what industries make up international indexes than those companies being cheaper.
Preach brother.
But, by definition, they are cheaper, right? They are the industries that investors haven't bid up so high.
By that definition value stocks are cheaper than growth stocks. Not just now, but they always have been and always will be. And value traps (those that in hindsight will be known as value traps) are the cheapest stocks of all.
by selters
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 8113

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

So which parts of the market outperformed? Large cap, high volatility, low quality, negative momentum and high multiple (growth) stocks?
by selters
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4683569

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The market has no obligation to be priced based on this year's or next year's earnings. When the dust has settled from the pandemic, which we hope it will by a year or two, the rebuilding of the economy will begin. Earnings will hopefully be back to all time nominal highs within three to five years. That's probably what the market expects, too, if it doesn't fall to 2000 or 1500.
by selters
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3659

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

JoMoney wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:57 am 1.5% real over 40 years would be the worst 40 year period for the S&P 500 ever.
FWIW, I think 40 years from the 2000 bubble, or 20 years from now stands a reasonable chance of being the worst 40 years, but I don't think even that period will be that low.
You're forgetting the dividend yield of about 2%.

S&P 10 000 in 40 years sounds pretty reasonable. With a 2% dividend yield and 2% inflation that's a 3.5% annualized real return.
by selters
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 379
Views: 48729

Re: It's Not Different This Time

I think this is serious, but I don't the world economy will be in worse shape than say, Japan and Germany after WW2. These two countries came back and became the top two and three economies in the world after WW2.
by selters
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum
Replies: 99
Views: 11365

Re: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum

I think I remember that Jason Zweig once wrote something along the lines "You don't get to buy stocks at bargain prices in the absence of bad news." This drop in stocks illustrates that point perfectly.
by selters
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4683569

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I believe the market will move down until we either get a vaccine or the stats looks like we are on the downside of the crest. I think the development of a vaccine is probably the most important since some believe there may be multiple waves of infections. I believe an official recession is all but built in. I will be keeping an eye on China as the canary. There are questions about whether a vaccine can be made for a coronavirus any time soon. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready-human-trials-global-immunisation The consistent message I've been hearing is at least a year to 18 months until a vaccine can be in widespread production. Many have quoted Dr Fauci in various threads here as saying...
by selters
Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 135
Views: 23199

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

ivk5 wrote: Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:33 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:21 pm
Random Walker wrote: Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:16 amThe rise of the S&P 500 over the last decade has been historic.
Not really.
Aren’t past events historic by definition? :P
All events are historical, but only extraordinary events are historic.
by selters
Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 135
Views: 23199

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

ivk5 wrote: Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:33 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:21 pm
Random Walker wrote: Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:16 amThe rise of the S&P 500 over the last decade has been historic.
Not really.
Aren’t past events historic by definition? :P
All events are historical, but only extraordinary events are historic.
by selters
Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 44416

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Lot of posts in this thread parroting the "recency bias" fallacy. 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy, and even in the late 19th century was still behind Britain. It has absolutely outperformed in the past 1-2 centuries. Yes. The US also has significant cultural, demographic, and geographic advantages over most every other country that have greatly contributed to those returns. We all hope those advantages continue into the future. All those things were known a few decades ago when the consensus was that Japan was going to take over the world. What's deemed an advantage today has a way of becoming a disadvantage tomorrow. Despite whatever the latest news cycle says, and despite how corny it sounds, America has prov...
by selters
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 25686

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Any comments on today's wide spread in performance between value and growth stocks? VLUE (ishares enhanced value) was up 1.78%, while IWF (russell 1000 growth) was down 0.78%. MTUM was down 1.68%. Just noise, or anything worth commenting in?
by selters
Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3994

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

...with the SV fund winning by just about 2% annually over that 7 year time period. 2009-2016 VTSMX 14.69% DFSVX 16.65% The DFA fund was 45% more volatile than the total market fund. Total Market crushed the DFA fund on a Sharpe Ratio basis. That means that it would have been much better to simply lever up your total market holding: DVSVX: 16.65% VTSAX levered to 145%: 21.18% https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2009&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDevi...