Search found 446 matches

by selters
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9641

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

I'm seeing the bitcoin crash coming.
by selters
Sun Dec 03, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggested reading for Norwegian coast trip
Replies: 18
Views: 1029

Re: Suggested reading for Norwegian coast trip

As a Norwegian myself, I can recommend this book, even if it is not a novel: https://www.amazon.com/Norwegian-Wood-Chopping-Stacking-Scandinavian/dp/B01MEE92O8 While the title of the book may give the impression that it is a how-to book, it is more of a popular scientific insight into the culture an...
by selters
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?
Replies: 100
Views: 13676

Re: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:26 am
W Buffet has 30 billion, he is 80s and still haw money on the table.
Yes, but he also says to keep enough cash to sleep well at night. Berkshire Hathaway has $60bn in cash or cash equivalents.
by selters
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?
Replies: 37
Views: 3142

Re: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?

I'm thinking that maybe a rational strategy for these bubble type asset classes is to jump on them if you see them forming (choose a definition beforehand) and then use a something like a 200 day moving average strategy to get out once they collapse. I don't have much data to support this strategy. ...
by selters
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?
Replies: 13
Views: 807

Re: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?

If you have 100% stocks and 0% bonds, you won't have any cash or bonds to rebalance with. With that being said, don't expect a periodically rebalanced 60/40 or 80/20 portfolio to outperform a 100/0 portfolio over the long term. Rebalancing is not magic. selters, The real world does not have to meet...
by selters
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?
Replies: 13
Views: 807

Re: if IRA 100% invested..where is cash for buying opporunities?

If you have 100% stocks and 0% bonds, you won't have any cash or bonds to rebalance with.

With that being said, don't expect a periodically rebalanced 60/40 or 80/20 portfolio to outperform a 100/0 portfolio over the long term. Rebalancing is not magic.
by selters
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4857

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad, Why should a balanced index fund investor accept that this is bad? If a hypothetical lack of shareholder activism served to discourage boards and executives from making shareholder-friendly pol...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4857

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

Selters: You wrote: Except for Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF (VSS), which there is no low cost option for, I don't use any Vanguard funds or ETFs. Why? Is it because you are Norwegian? Is it because of "Tragedy of the Commons?" What companies do you use? Your many posts have been very...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4857

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

The objections, which I believe you are misinterpreting, are never solely about Vanguard, but about indexing and passive ownership in general. I don't buy the most common argument against indexing, namely that the trend towards indexing will damage price discovery in the markets. I don't buy the ar...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4857

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad, then investors should choose another index fund provider than Vanguard when there are low cost alternatives. Even if it may cost them a basis point or so of performance every year. In response ...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4857

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad... I don't accept that there is a problem with Vanguard holding 10% of the equity of each SP 500 company. 10% isn't that bad. But Vanguard's market share is growing very rapidly. Depending on ho...
by selters
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4857

Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

I'm probably going to get some hate for saying this. But I think that so many people investing with Vanguard nowadays is a tragedy of the commons. Wikipedia says the tragedy of the commons is "an economic theory of a situation within a shared-resource system where individual users acting independent...
by selters
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 3670

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

Why does everbody use numbers from the late 90s to illustrate the fall in the number of publicly traded companies? Weren't the numbers back then artificially high for a few years?
by selters
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5244

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Chart comparing Vanguard S&P 500(VFINX) to Vanguard Midcap (VMCPX), Small Cap (VSCPX) and Vanguard Total Market (VTSAX) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShow...
by selters
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5244

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Because of S&P liquidity and profitability screens, over half of the companies whose stocks belong to a total US stock market index are smaller than any company in IJR. Not saying that's a bad thing, but this fund tracks an index (S&P600) that is in turn part of the S&P 1500 Composite index (roughl...
by selters
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1979

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

Nobody gets the gross return of the MSCI Emerging Markets index. Gross return means returns gross of any withholding taxes levied upon dividends from the companies in the index by the home country of the company. If the average dividend yield over the period was 2% and the withholding tax was 30%, t...
by selters
Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)
Replies: 33
Views: 5581

Re: Dave Ramsey sounded like a Boglehead today (Nov 2 2017)

(Shrug) A very common way to counter indexing is to give up on trying to convince people not to do it at all, and focus on convincing them only to do it with part of their money and invest the rest your way. Until you can show me that Ramsey is recommending balanced portfolios with nonzero bond all...
by selters
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Multi-year investment results by Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 900

Re: Question: Multi-year investment results by Vanguard

pkcrafter wrote:
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:47 am
I would not find that to be of much help,
I agree that it probably wouldn't be of much help in an absolute sense. But then again, are 3, 5 and 10 year returns very helpful? Just as 3 and 5 year returns are nice, 15 and 20 year returns would also be nice.
by selters
Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing is profitable?
Replies: 6
Views: 735

Re: Rebalancing is profitable?

Proftable if there is mean reversion between the asset classes or sub-asset classes you're rebalancing between. Unprofitable if not.
by selters
Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 686
Views: 31747

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I'm currently in 2nd place. Unfortunately the S&P 500 has to fall by 4 points for me to end up in 1st place :( But I could live with that. Maybe I could make a living out of giving interviews to the financial media just because a complete shot in the dark accidentally hit the target. 8-)
by selters
Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building very high net worth
Replies: 81
Views: 8497

Re: Building very high net worth

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:15 am
No, that is reality.
So you have to be in the top 1% to be considered quite wealthy?
by selters
Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual funds portfolio (Europe)
Replies: 4
Views: 364

Re: Mutual funds portfolio (Europe)

Hi, I don't have much experience investing and this is my first year trying to set up a retirement portfolio. Because I want to make monthly contributions, I choose to invest on mutual funds. I haven't invested that much money yet and my emergency funds almost equals my portfolio value, so I decide...
by selters
Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 7967

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

Interesting that their structure would return economies of scale to the investors but then back that out if the AUM dropped due to a market decline. Isn't that exactly what Vanguard does too? They run their funds at cost. AFAIK Vanguard ERs were higher in 2008 and 2009 than 2007, because of the mar...
by selters
Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intro Portfolio Advice
Replies: 6
Views: 531

Re: Intro Portfolio Advice

Looks good!

Take note that SCHF (Schwab International Equity ETF) does not contain any emerging markets. Consider adding some SCHE (Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF).
by selters
Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intriguing: S&P 1000 ETF (70% S&P 400/30% S&P 600)
Replies: 10
Views: 1678

Re: Intriguing: S&P 1000 ETF (70% S&P 400/30% S&P 600)

The expense ratio of this fund is now 0.05%. It also has a new ticker: SPMD (https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-portfolio-mid-cap-etf-SPMD) Some people prefer the S&P indexes for small and mid caps over indexes that include all small and mid caps, because financial viability screens in the S&P indexes...
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3684

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

David Scubadiver wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:06 pm
Besides having your terminology confused, your hypothetical makes no sense since there is no circumstance in which one could possibly be so limited.
We've seen worse 401k options many times on this very forum.
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3684

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

What if framed the question like this: If you could only hold Apple and the bottom 1000 stocks in TSM, would you hold them at market weight? If you could only hold the top five stocks in the US and the bottom 2000, would you hold them at market weight? If you could only hold the top 50 stocks in the...
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3684

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

The reason I'm asking is that every now and then the question comes up, is market cap weighting the best way to invest? Isn't it too concentrated in its top holdings? And then we get the usual string of replies, like market cap weighting is the most diversified, market cap weighting is on the effici...
by selters
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3684

Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

If you had to choose, which equity exposure would you rather have, 100% Apple stock or 100% S&P 600 small cap index? I'm wondering, since they have approximately the same market cap. Apple is worth $803 billion and the combined value of the constituents in the S&P 600 is $780 billion. Total stock ma...
by selters
Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 5024

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

my guess for the S&P 500 moved from 110th to 33rd in 6 days in the BH contest Darn, you beat me :( I'm at 42nd. Maybe stocks are going up because alternatives are lousy. But that was not the case in 2000. Intermediate term bonds yielded something like 7% back then, but still CAPE reached >40. If lo...
by selters
Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5128

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

Everywhere I look, share buybacks and dividends are viewed as roughly the same thing but I don't understand how that is. With share buybacks, the company buys its own shares and therefore there are less shares outstanding. The EPS rise and therefore the stock prices rise. With dividends, when the c...
by selters
Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which # by market cap is the smallest S&P 500 constituent?
Replies: 3
Views: 916

Which # by market cap is the smallest S&P 500 constituent?

Contrary to popular belief, the S&P 500 does not consist of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US. The S&P 500 (and many other S&P indices) have liquidity and profitability screens that need to be passed to make it into the S&P 500. Also, the index has constraints to make sure that eve...
by selters
Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in ETFs MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Market [Germany]
Replies: 18
Views: 1324

Re: Investing in ETFs MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Market [Germany]

If you live in Germany, surely you can buy any stock or ETF traded on the German stock market, right? Look for these tickers on Deutsche Börse EUNL: iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (ER 0.20%) IS3N: iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF (ER 0.25%) And the commission should be a lot lower than 1.50%, m...
by selters
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Current 401k Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1120

Re: My Current 401k Allocation

Moving out of the target date fund was probably a wise choice, since costs are higher in actively managed funds. But you moved into other actively managed funds with pretty high costs. You might want to reconsider those choices. The Bogleheads investment philosophy says that you should use index fun...
by selters
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are long-term market returns reliable?
Replies: 38
Views: 4271

Re: The myth about long-run stock returns

So when did the worst 30 year period end? And are these real or nominal returns?
by selters
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds added to 401k
Replies: 15
Views: 1289

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds added to 401k

2) I am wanting to get an AA of 80/20 (stock/bond) and with the stock breakdown being about 66/33 (domestic/international). Just be aware that the Target funds are 60/40 US/international. In my opinion this is close enough to your desired 66/33 that the difference is worth the simplicity and ER sav...
by selters
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off debt vs. max savings
Replies: 53
Views: 6038

Re: Paying off debt vs. max savings

What order you do things in is less important than how much you save, invest or pay down debt. $50,000 a year in the wrong order will always trump $40,000 in the right order.
by selters
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: adapt portfolios to european investor
Replies: 55
Views: 3449

Re: adapt portfolios to european investor

Another popular portfolio is: 10% iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF (TER:0,25%), EIMI 90% iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (TER:0,20%), IWDA +1 You are investing for a long time, 50+ years. We have no clue which economies will flourish and which will peter out; ditto for currencies....
by selters
Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing To Adjust 401k To Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1044

Re: Preparing To Adjust 401k To Three-Fund Portfolio

Just go 100% SSgA S&P 500 Index Ret Opt (TEIF), [ER=0.90]. Contribute up to the match in the 401k and then supplement with international (or bonds, if desired) in an IRA to get to your desired asset allocation. If there's money left over after that, max your 401k or save more for your house. When yo...
by selters
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1932

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

And there are plenty of index funds (non-total-market-index) that track groups of stocks that have certain kinds of higher risk and some think should have higher return. There are a lot of ideas about which risks, characteristics more broadly, or even mispricings, might lead to better returns over ...
by selters
Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: a list of major factor asset classes
Replies: 12
Views: 1159

Re: a list of major factor asset classes

selftalk wrote:
Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:40 pm
Where can I get a list of all factor etf major asset classes ? No multi-factors.
You mean low size, value, momentum, profitability/quality, and (arguably) minimum volatility?
by selters
Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does shorting negate the arithmetic of active management?
Replies: 5
Views: 592

Does shorting negate the arithmetic of active management?

I took part in an online discussion about active/passive management the other day. One of the participants claimed that once you allow short selling (or covered calls or other complex trading products) in a market, the arithmetic of active management argument breaks down. That is, the market is no l...
by selters
Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1117758

Re: Another point of view

True but it might take a very long time. After 1929 crash Dow didn't recover until 1950s ... zenon: According to "Outperforming the Market" by author John Merrill, if you had invested $1,000,000 in September 1929 at the top of the bull market, you would have $921,000 nominal and $1,142,000 real (af...
by selters
Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 6172

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

Simplegift wrote:
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:02 pm
It would be nice to see that chart currency adjusted. I think quite a bit of European and Emerging Markets earnings growth get buried under currency weakening against USD in that chart.
by selters
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put Tesla stock [Roth or another type of account]
Replies: 26
Views: 1173

Re: where to put Tesla stock [Roth or another type of account]

Am I wrong to think that as long as Tesla is a growth company that doesn't pay any dividends, you might as well put it in a taxable account and use your tax deferred space for more tax inefficient equities?
by selters
Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First article I've read against indexing that seems convincing
Replies: 40
Views: 6004

Re: First article I've read against indexing that seems convincing

Everyone who speaks of the decline in number of public stocks mentions the artificial high of 7500 in 1999-2000. What about some numbers from other times in history?
by selters
Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 6172

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:53 pm
lazyday wrote:
Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:49 pm

My favorite emerging value fund: FNDE
That fund overweights South Korea at about 20% of total. Just FYI.
That's not too bad. South Korea's weight in the MSCI EM index is something like 12-13% to begin with.
by selters
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Go 100% Into Stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 2272

Re: Should I Go 100% Into Stocks?

I started investing at the age of 40 (I am now 42) and plan on retiring at around 65. I currently do the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund for my portfolio via 401k and IRA. Lately, I have considered going 100% into stocks. Specifically, the Vanguard Total Stock market. I figure I'd count my Social Secu...