Search found 656 matches

by selters
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6261

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

So which parts of the market outperformed? Large cap, high volatility, low quality, negative momentum and high multiple (growth) stocks?
by selters
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628716

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The market has no obligation to be priced based on this year's or next year's earnings. When the dust has settled from the pandemic, which we hope it will by a year or two, the rebuilding of the economy will begin. Earnings will hopefully be back to all time nominal highs within three to five years....
by selters
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3095

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

1.5% real over 40 years would be the worst 40 year period for the S&P 500 ever. FWIW, I think 40 years from the 2000 bubble, or 20 years from now stands a reasonable chance of being the worst 40 years, but I don't think even that period will be that low. You're forgetting the dividend yield of abou...
by selters
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 348
Views: 31206

Re: It's Not Different This Time

I think this is serious, but I don't the world economy will be in worse shape than say, Japan and Germany after WW2. These two countries came back and became the top two and three economies in the world after WW2.
by selters
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum
Replies: 30
Views: 1874

Re: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum

I think I remember that Jason Zweig once wrote something along the lines "You don't get to buy stocks at bargain prices in the absence of bad news." This drop in stocks illistrates that point perfectly.
by selters
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628716

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I believe the market will move down until we either get a vaccine or the stats looks like we are on the downside of the crest. I think the development of a vaccine is probably the most important since some believe there may be multiple waves of infections. I believe an official recession is all but...
by selters
Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 135
Views: 21160

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

ivk5 wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:33 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:21 pm
Random Walker wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:16 am
The rise of the S&P 500 over the last decade has been historic.
Not really.
Aren’t past events historic by definition? :P
All events are historical, but only extraordinary events are historic.
by selters
Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 135
Views: 21160

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

ivk5 wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:33 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:21 pm
Random Walker wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:16 am
The rise of the S&P 500 over the last decade has been historic.
Not really.
Aren’t past events historic by definition? :P
All events are historical, but only extraordinary events are historic.
by selters
Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 32373

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Lot of posts in this thread parroting the "recency bias" fallacy. 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy, and even in the late 19th century was still behind Britain. It has absolutely outperformed in the past 1-2 centuries. Yes. The US also has significant cultural, demographic, and geo...
by selters
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 19793

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Any comments on today's wide spread in performance between value and growth stocks? VLUE (ishares enhanced value) was up 1.78%, while IWF (russell 1000 growth) was down 0.78%. MTUM was down 1.68%. Just noise, or anything worth commenting in?
by selters
Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3552

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

...with the SV fund winning by just about 2% annually over that 7 year time period. 2009-2016 VTSMX 14.69% DFSVX 16.65% The DFA fund was 45% more volatile than the total market fund. Total Market crushed the DFA fund on a Sharpe Ratio basis. That means that it would have been much better to simply ...
by selters
Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads was right, I was wrong
Replies: 163
Views: 18694

Re: Bogleheads was right, I was wrong

Why place anything in bonds when the mortgage interest rate is 4.25%? Because of the mortgage interest tax deduction? And because you can defer taxes (and maybe pay a lower rate on it when it's taken out of the retirement account in the future, which is probably the strongest argument in favor of pl...
by selters
Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sudden infusion of cash “problems”
Replies: 26
Views: 2547

Re: Sudden infusion of cash “problems”

Double post
by selters
Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sudden infusion of cash “problems”
Replies: 26
Views: 2547

Re: Sudden infusion of cash “problems”

The higher stock allocation you have, the more money you are likely to have 10, 20, 30, 40 years down the line. But the more money you have, the less useful every new dollar is to you. This is known as the marginal utility of money (or marginal utility of wealth): Mr. Money Moustache writes "Margina...
by selters
Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forced to market time, on the wrong day... how to fix?
Replies: 53
Views: 4208

Re: Forced to market time, on the wrong day... how to fix?

That 's sometimes the risk of transferring funds between accounts. A solution is to use some spare cash (or borrow the funds somewhere) to place the buy order in the account you're moving to on the same day as you place the sell order in the account you're moving from. That way, you buy and sell on ...
by selters
Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [CZ] ETF investment plan check & questions
Replies: 18
Views: 2045

Re: [CZ] ETF investment plan check & questions

[...] Even though it's easy to go two big stocks, I've recently encountered an idea where the people that don't mind the hassle of having multiple ETFs go for the All World allocation manually, which is about 6-7 ETFs altogether, but the total TER goes from around 0,20 to 0,12, but at the cost of a...
by selters
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors, tilting, and efficient markets
Replies: 55
Views: 3887

Re: Factors, tilting, and efficient markets

If factors outperform because they just make you take on more risk, then they are not in violation of the EMH, but if they provide you with higher risk-adjusted returns, then they are in violation of the EMH.
by selters
Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Choosing between EU and US domiciled ETFs
Replies: 11
Views: 825

Re: Choosing between EU and US domiciled ETFs

Because EU residents can't invest in US ETFs that doesn't have KIID file, Is there even one US ETF that has a KIID? You are right, but isn't there euro domiciled ETFs that mimics US ETFs? They are pretty close, but as long as you live in a country where you can deduct US withholding taxes on divide...
by selters
Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Choosing between EU and US domiciled ETFs
Replies: 11
Views: 825

Re: Choosing between EU and US domiciled ETFs

gingy wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:10 pm
Because EU residents can't invest in US ETFs that doesn't have KIID file,
Is there even one US ETF that has a KIID?
by selters
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8570

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

US have still outperformed ex-US since 2008. From 1945 to 2008, ex-US stocks outperformed US stocks, although not by much. The future is uncertain.
by selters
Wed May 15, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: For how long will the forum be around?
Replies: 94
Views: 10069

Re: For how long will the forum be around?

As long as the evil of active management is around, the good Bogleheads of this forum will be here to fight it tooth and nail! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :wink: Something that does worry me a little is that the Vanguard DieHards Forum at morningstar.com will be taken down one day. There's some r...
by selters
Wed May 15, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: For how long will the forum be around?
Replies: 94
Views: 10069

Re: For how long will the forum be around?

As long as the evil of active management is around, the good Bogleheads of this forum will be here to fight it tooth and nail! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :wink: Something that does worry me a little is that the Vanguard DieHards Forum at morningstar.com will be taken down one day. There's some r...
by selters
Wed May 01, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative/Subtractive Indexes?
Replies: 23
Views: 960

Re: Negative/Subtractive Indexes?

It's odd to me that there is no Large cap minus top 10 stocks ETF or something similar. Seems like there's a demand for it. Of course there's funds like the Vanguard Mid Cap Fund, but that's more like Large cap minus top 200, which isn't really the samw thing. I think the most cost effective strateg...
by selters
Wed May 01, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative/Subtractive Indexes?
Replies: 23
Views: 960

Re: Negative/Subtractive Indexes?

Thesaints wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 10:06 am
Buy VTSAX and short a number of AAPL shares equivalent to your holdings.
Can that be done at virtually no cost, like owning an index fund can?
by selters
Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: understanding Swedroe on total mkt fund having "no net exposure"?
Replies: 35
Views: 3111

Re: understanding Swedroe on total mkt fund having "no net exposure"?

Factor exposure is by definition neutral in the the total stock market. Factor exposure is a relative measure, not an absolute one.
by selters
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5638
Views: 482782

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

Unless you sold your stocks today I'm not sure how the S&P Index closing at a record high is anything to cheer about :| It's really in many ways just pretend money until you sell. Is it? What if you extend the logic to cash in the bank? "That's just cash sitting in the bank. It may be hyperinflated...
by selters
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 5529

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

If markets are reasonably efficient, then stocks should have a higher expected return than risk free investments. Stocks are suppsed to be priced low enough that they are expected to outperform safe investments. Because why would anyone own a stock if they could get the same return with lower or vir...
by selters
Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 159
Views: 24346

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

I think the theory is sound (use global market cap - I am 55/45 US/Intl), but I'm not sure "now" is the perfect time. However, I'm not sure "now" is not the perfect time, either. I just set my asset allocation and let it do its thing. My logic of "now" is that the US market cap as a percentage of w...
by selters
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3812

Re: When to add bonds?

I think asset allocation should be based on portfolio size, not age. You can add bonds when your portfolio reaches a not completely insignificant amount. Define that however you like, 10k, 20k, 50k or something. If you want some bonds, if only to learn about them, maybe you can start out with a smal...
by selters
Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why borrow money in RE but not Stocks?
Replies: 39
Views: 4546

Re: Why borrow money in RE but not Stocks?

Callable vs non-callable debt.
by selters
Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 62
Views: 7323

Re: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager

snackdog wrote:
Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:19 pm
The long term (20 year) return of the fund has been 4 points better than inflation.
Not four basis point better than inflation, I think. Four basis points better than a market cap weighted global all cap index.
by selters
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 5081

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Edit: I don't want to go into an argument over when the third millennium started. The explanation given above on timeanddate.com makes sense.
by selters
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else in frontier markets?
Replies: 31
Views: 2083

Re: Anyone else in frontier markets?

I purchased a few shares of FM in 2014 that I still own. I'm not terribly excited about owning them based on five years of performance, but I don't sell an investment based on five years of performance oŕ how I feel about it. Frontier Markets are part of the global investable stock market, so I own ...
by selters
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying dips not recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4621

Re: Buying dips not recommended?

Yes, many of us do. We usually call it rebalancing. If you are young and have small portfolio to annual savings ratio, then you should probably not be afraid to sell bonds to purchase stocks. Many older investors—which, of course, you can define however you like—only rebalance from stocks to bonds, ...
by selters
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the real contrarians please stand up?
Replies: 58
Views: 4379

Re: Will the real contrarians please stand up?

I thought US was 48% of world GDP. What's your source? I'm 50% US equities, with the rest split evenly between DM/EM. US was 48% of global market cap a few years ago. Now it's more like 53%. But US GDP is only about 25% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://www.in...
by selters
Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get greedy when others are fearful?
Replies: 14
Views: 2151

Re: Get greedy when others are fearful?

masonstone wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:46 pm
Market timing doesn’t work
Well, for what it's worth, historical evidence suggests that disciplined rebalancing from bonds to stocks when stocks fall provides you with a higher risk-adjusted return (compared to just letting it ride, I would expect).
by selters
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 16757

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

0.5% real return for US large cap the coming decade? That can’t be right. People said that in 2000, too. As if the 20% annual returns from 1995-2000 weren't likely to cannibalize much of the returns of the 2000s. But valuations aren't close now to what they were in 2000. So unless earnings don't co...
by selters
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter
Replies: 12
Views: 3252

Re: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter

I think these stats are meaningless. The Twitter account @OddStats has grown very rapidly in the last six months. They say they started the account to spew out meaningless data mined statistics just to illustrate how much worthless data there is out there. But the financial media don't seem to care ...
by selters
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 16757

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Many "international" companies (Nestle, BP, Alibaba, just to name a few) are listed on US stock exchanges or have US ADRs and therefore are included in US indices like the S&P 500, which makes them part and parcel of portfolios containing "US stocks". That ceased to be the case in something like 19...
by selters
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another newbie investor who's feeling the pain and would like advice
Replies: 46
Views: 6123

Re: Another newbie investor who's feeling the pain and would like advice

Sell the Apple stock, take the loss and buy an index fund. Luckily the whole market is also down, not just AAPL.
by selters
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 8885

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

This market drawdown feels different now than other corrections that I’ve experienced since I started investing in 2012. But that’s probably because this is the first time a few months of contributions for me will not cover my losses. Logically I know very well that the market may turn at any point....
by selters
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 6548

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

Hasn't he been saying this since 1996? Or at least 2011? The same with Schiller and Sharpe?

But then again, Greenspan may be right. We might see 10 years of flat to negative returns also.
by selters
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2628716

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

cnbc is reporting that this is the worst December for the market since the great depression. As I have posted in the past, the reporting is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Who cares about worst December? If it wasn’t the worst December, the media would report on something else, such as worst D...
by selters
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)
Replies: 2
Views: 257

Re: Total return uk index (i.e. including dividends reinvested)

MSCI UK Index Gross Return USD: Google msci UK index. The first link will be a pdf with a fact sheet about the msci UK index. It has annual returns for every year since 2003, but says that the annualized return since 1994 has been about 6.2%. If you want to go even further back you can use the chart...
by selters
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 174
Views: 16552

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I will not use VMVFX as a "core" equity holding in my portfolio. I'm just going to keep it simple with equity funds (with not much tilt), bond funds, TIPs and CD's. I don't believe there are any magic elixirs out there when in comes to investing, perhaps a few high frequency trading groups that tak...
by selters
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Company 401K Investment Choices
Replies: 3
Views: 264

Re: New Company 401K Investment Choices

Looks great! Very Boglehead-esque.
by selters
Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT $60, VTI $134 [iShares Total US vs. Vanguard Total Market]
Replies: 16
Views: 3108

Re: ITOT $60, VTI $134

... I haven't dug deep but ITOT is the S&P1500 while VTI is the CRSP Total Market, so these look to be not substantially identical to me; could be a 4th fund to harvest into... ITOT is no longer the S&P 1500, they changed the index the fund tracks to the "S&P Total Market Index" Thanks. Still diffe...
by selters
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 135
Views: 21160

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Why do you care about whether or not this is a correction or bear market? Do you care whether we are below or above the 200 day moving average? Do you care whether we are above or below the Bollinger bands? Bear market and correction are arbitrary quantitative measures. If you don't care about techn...