Search found 2888 matches

by 2015
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is back-testing exactly...
Replies: 11
Views: 1184

Re: What is back-testing exactly...

Backtesting is good at weeding out BAD strategies. If you have a strategy and it failed in the past, then you know it could fail going forward too. Backtesting is NOT as good at validating GOOD strategies. Just because a strategy didn't fail in the past, that doesn't guarantee it won't fail going forward. Unfortunately, a LOT of people use backtesting in the second scenario. They run a backtest, see that it worked in the past, and put far too much faith in it going forward. Here's the thing. EVERY financial strategy that failed, at one point, backtested well. But then something different from the past happened, and the strategy failed. Backtesting is useful, but you can't put too much faith in it. There's not enough data points, and too ma...
by 2015
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is back-testing exactly...
Replies: 11
Views: 1184

Re: What is back-testing exactly...

Something that comes attached with too much opportunity cost for me.
by 2015
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 9685

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Personally, I think it's shameful when people actively choose to not engage in second stage thinking. Yet another benefit of choosing simplicity is one gets to cease worshiping at the alter of false gods (while falling into the trap of appeal to authority) That's all in your imagination. Okay, maybe some people don't choose to engage in second order thinking. Maybe they just don't do it (which is quite human, after all). One of the most dangerous areas for the human propensity for narratives and appeal to authority is in investing. It's never wise to fail to look at the writings of any financial pundit from more than a single angle. It is wise to remember that our minds are programmed to automatically accept as true anything we read which ...
by 2015
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 9692

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

Toons wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:43 am Markets "Tank"
Then head North again,
Don't sweat the small stuff.
Retire,
Enjoy
Day by Day.
Control What You Can.

:happy
Unfortunately, some of us weren't blessed with the nerves (and other things) of steel that you have, Toons. This is why I engaged in liability matching so that market corrections of any kind in the future will be small stuff. Bonus is I'll also be saving a lot on deodorant. :wink:
by 2015
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility of spending
Replies: 27
Views: 2266

Re: Volatility of spending

And I'm just returned from a 7600-mile roadtrip spanning the month of March in which I stayed in motels and ate meals out every day except one. So my spending was higher for March than February most likely. I guess I'm not really sure what the point of the OP's question is... Sounds like the point was the OP perhaps is wondering what they should plan on in retirement for the fluctuations in their annual spend. I think we can all look at the pre-retirement years as guide in terms of home maintenance/repair, auto maintenance/repair, vacations/trips, food (groceries and eating out) to ascertain what the annual fluctuations may be on our spending habits. The big items such as painting the interior/exterior of the house, redoing the floors (car...
by 2015
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 9685

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Personally, I think it's shameful when people actively choose to not engage in second stage thinking. Yet another benefit of choosing simplicity is one gets to cease worshiping at the alter of false gods (while falling into the trap of appeal to authority) It's wise to remember that in open systems such as investing behavior always trumps strategy, because "strategy" is unreliable in a chaotic system. In investing, the more one chases information, the more damage one does, sooner or later. In choosing something like a 3 fund portfolio (and most importantly sticking with it), one is insulated from one's worst enemy, the psychically, cognitively, and perceptually "blind" and overconfident individual staring back in the mir...
by 2015
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best thing to prepare for care for parents
Replies: 17
Views: 2231

Re: Best thing to prepare for care for parents

One of the most important things you can do for yourself is to study well in advance on what a caregiver is, what the totality of caregiving entails, and the many pitfalls of doing so when one is unprepared.

https://www.caregiver.org/work-and-eldercare
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 9685

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Always interesting how much click bait comes with its own Opportunity Costs warning...such as those with the word "ultimate" in the title. If anyone found the "ultimate" anything they wouldn't have to write about it in order to monetize it. I'm beginning to believe those who write in the fields of investing, personal finance, and microeconomics all take the same financial writing course 101. Either that, or they're like lemons on a tray: tilt the tray and they all roll the same way. Admittedly the title of the Merriman piece is intended to draw attention. But if you actually read the article (listen to the podcast), it is really about a demonstration of how diversification can work to improve return at essentially the s...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good resources for liability matching
Replies: 21
Views: 3021

Re: Good resources for liability matching

TIPS bonds, as well as duration matched combinations of TIPS bond funds, and I-bonds are good ways to match consumption liabilities in retirement. But even better methods are Social Security and real life annuities including longevity annuities, and real pensions. Other liability matching methods would include Medicare and Medigap insurance, LTCi, and a reverse mortgage with payouts structured similarly to life annuities. IMO an optimal retirement matching strategy of income to consumption would be mainly annuitization using some combination of the following products - SS, pension, traditional life annuity and/or longevity life annuity, reverse mortgage structured payouts - and TIPS and I-bonds. The annuity type products protect against lo...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 9685

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Always interesting how much click bait comes with its own Opportunity Costs warning...such as those with the word "ultimate" in the title. If anyone found the "ultimate" anything they wouldn't have to write about it in order to monetize it.

I'm beginning to believe those who write in the fields of investing, personal finance, and microeconomics all take the same financial writing course 101. Either that, or they're like lemons on a tray: tilt the tray and they all roll the same way.
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?
Replies: 80
Views: 7509

Re: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?

My idea was and still is: When you no longer need to work and can maintain the same lifestyle as you did when working . Also, it will not matter what the market does. You may want to work full or part time but you don't have to. So, working will be for fun. Not about the money. I cant' understand the idea of FI when you income went from 100k to 25k. Beacuse you retired to early. Then health care eat you up. Don't be fooled by the people on line that state they are FI with a low income. Most are making money from the blogs they have. They are the few successful lucky ones. What about those of us who have a (much) better lifestyle than when working (more as a result of luck than anything else)? Work? In retirement? Fun?? Having to be anywher...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website - News & Blog
Replies: 9
Views: 1540

Re: Vanguard website - News & Blog

Howard wrote: Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:27 am That is not an efficient way to try and stay current.
...
Agreed. I believe it's a totally inefficient way to improve one's decision making, which will have more of an impact on outcomes than supporting those who regularly publish marketing veiled as information.
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When income stream covers all expenses in retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 2031

Re: When income stream covers all expenses in retirement

retiredjg wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:57 pm Ask them how much they are willing to see disappear during a bad market. 50%? 30%? 10%?

That will determine how much risk they should take.
Agreed. I would also ask what has been their historical relationship with risk of all kinds. Risk considered in terms of emotional response in a broad historical behavioral context trumps any cerebral yet sterile evaluation of one's risk tolerance. We saw the drawbacks of cerebral risk evaluation in 2008.
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What? No Income?
Replies: 62
Views: 8641

Re: What? No Income?

ad2007 wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:47 am ...

What's it like for those of you who voluntarily quit a good job (you like the job OK, wouldn't do it for free though) and retire? Did you dwell on the fact that you could have a bunch more money if you'd just keep going a bit more?
I left a very good job and very good career options because the call of freedom was just to great. Retirement has been the absolute best time of my life. Indescribably fantastic. It's never been about the money and I have more money than I'll ever need.
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Adjusting to lower compensation from a retirement job
Replies: 42
Views: 2466

Re: Adjusting to lower compensation from a retirement job

Do benefits jobs really exist? If they do, can't hurt to try one. Not really sure, Starbucks and HomeDepot were once famous for this but that really isn't likely something I could deal with very long. It may be for me that retirement is a binary decision but I thought the option was worth exploring. Starbucks, Chipotle, Home Depot, Lowes, REI, Costco, and many more rank high for part-time benefits. I only can speak for myself, but I worked pretty hard in school and at my career so I wouldn’t need o take a service job as described above. I get the need for a routine and for contact with other people, but making lattes isn’t going to hack it. Taking one of those types of jobs out of financial necessity, no matter what your age, is perfectly ...
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?
Replies: 80
Views: 7509

Re: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?

My idea was and still is: When you no longer need to work and can maintain the same lifestyle as you did when working . Also, it will not matter what the market does. You may want to work full or part time but you don't have to. So, working will be for fun. Not about the money. I cant' understand the idea of FI when you income went from 100k to 25k. Beacuse you retired to early. Then health care eat you up. Don't be fooled by the people on line that state they are FI with a low income. Most are making money from the blogs they have. They are the few successful lucky ones. What about those of us who have a (much) better lifestyle than when working (more as a result of luck than anything else)? Work? In retirement? Fun?? Having to be anywher...
by 2015
Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hate bonds
Replies: 116
Views: 17683

Re: I hate bonds

I have no problem reprimanding (more like admonishing) those who stop at first stage thinking. The opportunity cost in chasing performance or yield is staggering if you really understand that you could be doing literally anything at this moment. We humans are great at building cages of our own making regardless our actual state of freedom. This is why I won't own anything other than Total Bond. On the way to Dublin, it's at the intersection of Simplicity Street and Freedom Road. I think it is safe to say that those who choose to spend time on this board and mull over bond fund choices implicitly consider this activity an end in itself, not merely a means to a safe retirement. I agree with you, though it's wise to remember one's time is one...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hate bonds
Replies: 116
Views: 17683

Re: I hate bonds

I have no problem reprimanding (more like admonishing) those who stop at first stage thinking. The opportunity cost in chasing performance or yield is staggering if you really understand that you could be doing literally anything at this moment. We humans are great at building cages of our own making regardless our actual state of freedom.

This is why I won't own anything other than Total Bond. On the way to Dublin, it's at the intersection of Simplicity Street and Freedom Road.
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good resources for liability matching
Replies: 21
Views: 3021

Re: Good resources for liability matching

I have entirely too much living to do in retirement and not enough time to do it in to be chasing yield or performance, so my liability matching consists entirely of CD's. The simplicity is unsurpassed and I get to spend my time at my favorite bakery drinking coffee, reading, pausing occasionally to gaze at the crazy gorgeous mountains.
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Valuing retirement years
Replies: 35
Views: 4557

Re: Valuing retirement years

Sample size of 1: My decade of early retirement, 55-65, was the best years of my life. Now near 70 and dear wife has a slow, terminal medical condition, while I have all of the earliest symptoms of future dementia. Dang. But we are grateful for those extra years of good times together. Yes. This is exactly why I'm placing so much emphasis on finding the juice in the present moment while attempting to treasuring it as much as possible, because I have no idea what will come later. My life has been such that despite having taken extraordinary measures to preserve my health the gods will once again have the last laugh and throw something like cognitive impairment my way. It's for this reason I'm actively engaging in what I refer to as Lifespan...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Valuing retirement years
Replies: 35
Views: 4557

Re: Valuing retirement years

Sample size of 1: My decade of early retirement, 55-65, was the best years of my life. Now near 70 and dear wife has a slow, terminal medical condition, while I have all of the earliest symptoms of future dementia. Dang. But we are grateful for those extra years of good times together. Yes! This is exactly why I'm placing so much emphasis on finding the juice in the present moment while attempting to treasuring it as much as possible, because I have no idea what will come later. My life has been such that despite having taken extraordinary measures to preserve my health the gods will once again have the last laugh and throw something like cognitive impairment my way. It's for this reason I'm actively engaging in what I refer to as Lifespan...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 79
Views: 10990

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

Opines that focus on matters such as these comes at the expense of more impactful matters (such as attention to diet, substances ingested, and exercise).
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:15 pm
2015 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:09 pmI will never stop repeating that agility, flexibility, resilience and a platter full of options are far more valuable than any obsession with certainty or "The Answer."
I largely agree with this point and would add fiscal conservatism to that list.
Yes! You know what? I'd have to say fiscal conservatism has contributed to more of my financial success than just about anything else I've ever done (besides saving, of course). I'd even go so far as to say fiscal conservatism is what invited good (financial) luck into my life.
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Valuing retirement years
Replies: 35
Views: 4557

Re: Valuing retirement years

I don't personally believe there is more value in the early phase of retirement. A wise person once told me you should have dreams at every age, and as part of my High Performance Aging project, my phrase is "the best is yet to come." For me, age is a mental disease, socially contagious, and one that must be inoculated against. Aging is about becoming more of one who really is, replacing lifelong external influences for more solid, grounded, internal influences.

To me, there is no comparison of retirement value to any time spent working. Retirement has been one of the highlights of my entire life, and it keeps on getting better every year.
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

What I've done is to eschewed arrogance and overconfidence . . . . I'm looking for words with which to address this particular assertion. Perhaps I'll just say that believing that common sense (which is unique to the person holding the belief) always trumps intellectual rigor is, itself, just another form of "arrogance and overconfidence". What intellectual rigor? Misinterpretation of statistical data and calling untestable hypotheses "science"? Making cause-and-effect assumptions a posteriori ? Please quote me one "intellectually rigorous" study that predicts where the US or world economy, or the stock market, is headed in the next century with better than 50-50 odds. I couldn't possibly have said it better. ...
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 303
Views: 43689

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

fortfun wrote: Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:16 pm
Tdubs wrote: Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:06 pm Sometimes places are affordable for a reason. Can't imagine living in retirement in some of the places in the top ten.
Like CO :)
Image
That's akin to the view outside my windows (though I am in CA, not CO). I read tons of books and articles like this before retirement. Not a single one of them added value when it came time to choose.

One of the best statements I've ever read was "no retirement location is perfect." One must resist the Addiction To Certainty when it comes to these things.
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)
Replies: 36
Views: 3118

Re: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)

I love my ASUS Vivobook, which I got as a result of reading threads here. It's perfect for my needs.
by 2015
Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I think if these threads resembled something more akin to informed debate about the accuracy and precision of forecasts they'd be more productive. Instead, we get a lot of "nobody nows nothing" type arguments. Rather than trying to draw a binary distinction between "past data" and "timeless data" (though I get your drift), I think it's a lot more valuable to place our models on a continuum of predictive power. Obviously some models are orders of magnitude more predictive than others, in part because some models operate in spheres of knowledge where the signal-to-noise ration is relatively high (e.g physics) whereas other operate in spheres of knowledge where the signal-to-noise ratio is lower (e.g.finance). Ph...
by 2015
Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shut off water before a vacation
Replies: 111
Views: 15631

Re: Shut off water before a vacation

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:09 pm
2015 wrote: Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:20 pm
rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:52 am Only during the winter. I turn off the furnace humidifier. I don't shut off the hot water heater because its gas and I'd rather not mess with it. If it was electric I would at least dial it down to the lowest setting or maybe turn it off.
I also have gas. Wouldn't the benefit of turning off the gas valve at the HWH be to mitigate explosion/fire during, say, an EQ? I don't know which is why I'm asking.
Might be if that’s a concern where you are. I worry more about losing power and burst pipes in the winter.
Yes. Earthquake is the monster worry in CA even though they're unpredictable.
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Q to ppl who use spreadsheet for personal finance
Replies: 64
Views: 8612

Re: Q to ppl who use spreadsheet for personal finance

1-3 Yes with Excel, 4-6, No.

I'm at a point where I want to spend the absolute minimum amount of time on my investing and personal finance.
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My Life in Retirement - Thank You !!
Replies: 30
Views: 4849

Re: My Life in Retirement - Thank You !!

The Outsider wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:46 pm Congrats

Hard work, and good judgment. Enjoy, you earned it

Respect
I second the above.
Welcome to what can be the most fulfilling time of your life.
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $480K, no job, special needs kids, what to do?
Replies: 52
Views: 7096

Re: $480K, no job, special needs kids, what to do?

... Like you we have spent tens of thousands on therapies. Perhaps approaching 6 figures all total. Many of them out of network. It is a difficult decision. You always want the best for your kids so money is no object. But it is really hard to evaluate how much good these therapies do. You may spend tens of thousands that brings a level of change that isn't noticeable to most people. As our kids got older we started cutting back, as much about inconvenient logistics as therapy cost. My suggestion is really look hard at whether the cost benefit is there for some of these, especially the out of network ones. It is OK to sometimes say no. You may be able to find cheaper options in network, or maybe through a nearby college. They won't be as g...
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shut off water before a vacation
Replies: 111
Views: 15631

Re: Shut off water before a vacation

rkhusky wrote: Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:52 am Only during the winter. I turn off the furnace humidifier. I don't shut off the hot water heater because its gas and I'd rather not mess with it. If it was electric I would at least dial it down to the lowest setting or maybe turn it off.
I also have gas. Wouldn't the benefit of turning off the gas valve at the HWH be to mitigate explosion/fire during, say, an EQ? I don't know which is why I'm asking.
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I think the distinction people are trying to make without quite having the words isn't between "past data" and "future data" but between "past data" and "timeless data". You are being commendably charitable, I'd say. I think if these threads resembled something more akin to informed debate about the accuracy and precision of forecasts they'd be more productive. Instead, we get a lot of "nobody nows nothing" type arguments. Rather than trying to draw a binary distinction between "past data" and "timeless data" (though I get your drift), I think it's a lot more valuable to place our models on a continuum of predictive power. Obviously some models are orders of magnitude mo...
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement: What expenses did you reduce?
Replies: 63
Views: 5831

Re: Retirement: What expenses did you reduce?

Saved a lots of money losing the daily cafe mocha habit as a result of no longer having to anesthesize myself from working.
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When Will the Momentum Kick In?
Replies: 18
Views: 2073

Re: When Will the Momentum Kick In?

Momentum kicks in when one has finally learned to turn one's attention to the many more important areas in life than investing, personal finance, and microeconomics. You will have learned that the solid satisfaction and fulfillment humans seek is built on qualities that can never be found focusing solely on investing, personal finance, and microeconomics. It takes time and living to learn that, but at that point, the momentum in all areas of your life will almost overwhelm you.
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Change international % in equities over time?
Replies: 11
Views: 1368

Re: Change international % in equities over time?

It's not a question I consider worthy of my consideration. I've been at 80/20 US/Int'l and don't pay enough attention to my portfolio as it is without thinking whether I should change any allocation.

My 3 fund portfolio has freed me to focus on what I consider to be much more important things in life than investing, personal finance, and microeconomics (like reading broadly beyond these fields).
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Today I turned 30, and I woke up wanting to better my financial future!
Replies: 46
Views: 5821

Re: Today I turned 30, and I woke up wanting to better my financial future!

Congratulations on turning 30 and being vastly smarter than I was at your age. My theory is that because in the never ending historical battle between labor and capital labor is currently losing, many are turning to the markets to secure their future. I liken this to the new gold rush and the only thing that is missing are the posters telling people to go west. I would caution to not fall into the trap of getting almost fanatically religious about investing and finding the "right", "best", "better", "answer" in investing because in my mind it pulls one away from the best method in which to create personal wealth--that is, to add value to someone or something. Focusing on continually upgrading your thi...
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

So far, nobody has presented a non-statistical method for arriving at their investment decisions (whether implemented by them or using the work of others), except the method of randomness, which is arguably not a method. It does seem many of the posters railing against statistics have a large enough portfolio to have a "risk portion" and "non-risk portion", in which case randomness in the risk portion might work for them. Although, they have still used statistics to arrive at their conclusion of the make-up of each portion . They just let others do the heavy lifting for them before labeling the data relied upon as "noise." I suppose that's not untrue, since they themselves are not concerned about the data dire...
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise
Replies: 298
Views: 33217

Re: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise

There are different kind of folks with different mindsets. There is no one size fits all. ... Precisely. I haven't had a mortgage in decades. It's worked for the purposes and within the confines of my own complex adaptive system. I don't care what others have done, are doing, or will do. I never look for what's "best", what's considered THE answer. I look for what works within that system otherwise known as my life. No one who writes in the areas of investing, personal finance, and microeconomics will ever be able to answer that for me. I've found it far more valuable to focus on risk mitigation, expanding effective decision making capabilities and creating options of all kinds than to be obsessed with The Most Clever Strategy (w...
by 2015
Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal information management: Zettelkasten / The Brain / Scrivener
Replies: 17
Views: 9356

Re: Personal information management: Zettelkasten / The Brain / Scrivener

Interesting. Since retiring, I've been actively engaged in what I refer to as a Mental Software Update project. As part of that, upon retirement I threw away tons of notes, books, artifacts, and scores of things that were important to who I'd been in the past. In moving last year, I threw out all of the rest. I've evolved so dramatically over the years that anything I studied that I wanted perpetuated became almost part of my DNA as an ongoing heuristic (e.g., "successful, effective, high performing individuals do what they have to do in advance of when they have to do it"). Incredibly, in my lifetime, massively more possibility exists now than when I was born. In our new After Digital Age all systems are changing so rapidly (some...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

If someone has a strategy that amounts to following the people who are using maps, is it not a little disingenuous for them to say that maps play no role in their movement? +1 Why is selecting an AA because it "looks pretty" not a meaningfully worse approach than one that at least takes the history of the markets into account on some level? Prof. Walter Kotschnig told Holyoke College students to keep their minds open—“but not so open that your brains fall out.” https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/04/13/open-mind/ Because some us are not looking for what's "worse", "better", "best", or the "Answer". Some of us feel it's that very search that serves to fool us and causes the most harm . And ye...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 14568

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

So far, nobody has presented a non-statistical method for arriving at their investment decisions (whether implemented by them or using the work of others), except the method of randomness, which is arguably not a method. It does seem many of the posters railing against statistics have a large enough portfolio to have a "risk portion" and "non-risk portion", in which case randomness in the risk portion might work for them. Although, they have still used statistics to arrive at their conclusion of the make-up of each portion . They just let others do the heavy lifting for them before labeling the data relied upon as "noise." I suppose that's not untrue, since they themselves are not concerned about the data dire...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanics of Flight to quality
Replies: 11
Views: 1868

Re: Mechanics of Flight to quality

By "Flight to Quality" I was thinking The Three Fund Portfolio while looking for the mechanics of fleeing there and away from all the noise. My bad.
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ASUS' live update software hacked, signed with ASUS digital certificate
Replies: 6
Views: 1191

Re: ASUS' live update software hacked, signed with ASUS digital certificate

On this page ASUS provides a link to a diagnostic tool to check if your computer has been compromised:

https://www.asus.com/News/hqfgVUyZ6uyAyJe1

Also, from Reddit:
This only affects ASUS machines running Live Update that was downloaded between June and November of 2018. That puts approximately 3-4 million machines sold by ASUS in that time frame, in addition to downloads from the web. It's likely that this malware is on your machine, but is dormant because only 600 specific MAC addresses would trigger the next stage of the malware. As of now, even if you have the malware it's likely not doing anything. Instead, this exposes a huge security oversight and example of attacking at the vendor/source level.
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 5974

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

Gym equipment such as barbells, dumbbells, and almost-never-used treadmills and bowflexes regularly shows up on my local Craigslist for low prices compared to new, because lots of people buy the stuff then quickly lose interest . ... Yea. Every time Isomeone says they're going to create a home gym I wonder how long it will take before it's converted back into a game/television room of some kind. This kind of equipment is always showing up at garage sales or worse set out on the curb on garbage day. Working out is mental if it is anything, and what I've seen over decades of seeing people starting a new gym membership every January only to disappear by February is that the majority of people do not stick with it. Were this not so, almost 40%...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Q: Family Responsibility for Deceased Brother Auto Accident Prior to Death
Replies: 57
Views: 5920

Re: Q: Family Responsibility for Deceased Brother Auto Accident Prior to Death

I am not a lawyer, and am looking at this thread a "financial perspective' based on my training which may be exactly the VERY WRONG. But please hear me out: From a cost benefit standpoint on a fairly insignicant amount of $2000: I know the insurer does not have a copy of the death certificate which I assume would be a necessary document, probably in accordance with company policy, to justify "writing-off" this immaterial amount on their books. Combine this with the fact that brother died at early age (verifyable) and drives an old clunker and is an alcoholic (which could be verbally offered up to the insurance agent). Logically, I would think if a family member that didn't return a call to the insurer, the insurer would be m...
by 2015
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Baby Boglehead - Investing after "winning the game"
Replies: 42
Views: 8931

Re: Baby Boglehead - Investing after "winning the game"

I've never really thought about re-adjusting AA once turning Social Security on. If I'm 67 or 70 when that happens and returns stay on track with historical data, do I want to go back to say 60/40 from 50/50 to try and gain 4/10s of one percent (8.8 versus 8.4) ? In my case, absolutely not. I shudder to think I would be 67 or 70 and have nothing better to do with the precious moments of my life than chase performance, yield, and safety. There is just too much possibility in the world for me to be staring at a screen, chart, or graph as a result of my own greed. My AA has been at 50/50 for no other reason than I've won the game and my chicken bones said a 50/50 AA aligned with Jupiter's orbit. That's a much better reason than spending my ti...
by 2015
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to juggle Roth conversions with staying under ACA cliff?
Replies: 22
Views: 2187

Re: How to juggle Roth conversions with staying under ACA cliff?

Don't forget to take into account in your analysis that even under the cliff, there is a somewhat linear loos of subsidy with increasing income. So, if you are converting in what is the 22% bracket, the conversion will actually cost you about 32% when you include the lowered subsidy amount due to the conversion. That makes Roth conversion a tougher call when balancing ACA subsidies. From what I've learned from you in the past, it seems most people should do one or the other (conversions or subsidies), not both. That doing both in the same year might actually be counter-productive a fair amount of the time. Is that a fair summary? I think, unfortunately, there probably is not a blanket recommendation that can be applied. It really is not mu...
by 2015
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two factor authentication loophole?
Replies: 32
Views: 4641

Re: Two factor authentication loophole?

How is the app more secure if any stranger can install Bank XYZ's app on their phone and access my account with just the username and password, while the site requires 2FA to a phone number or device that I've registered? Think of it this way: the MFA is necessary to make the website as secure as the app is without it. Phones and tablets with an up-to-date OS are generally MUCH more secure than the typical extant PC. The apps are generally required to connect over https, ensure the SSL is correct, are fully sandboxed etc. If you login using an app, the incidence of having your username and password compromised drops dramatically. Furthermore, for the vast majority of customers the second factor in MFA IS the phone: you're often getting one...