Search found 2889 matches

by 2015
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is back-testing exactly...
Replies: 11
Views: 714

Re: What is back-testing exactly...

Backtesting is good at weeding out BAD strategies. If you have a strategy and it failed in the past, then you know it could fail going forward too. Backtesting is NOT as good at validating GOOD strategies. Just because a strategy didn't fail in the past, that doesn't guarantee it won't fail going f...
by 2015
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is back-testing exactly...
Replies: 11
Views: 714

Re: What is back-testing exactly...

Something that comes attached with too much opportunity cost for me.
by 2015
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 6229

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Personally, I think it's shameful when people actively choose to not engage in second stage thinking. Yet another benefit of choosing simplicity is one gets to cease worshiping at the alter of false gods (while falling into the trap of appeal to authority) That's all in your imagination. Okay, mayb...
by 2015
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 8248

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

Markets "Tank" Then head North again, Don't sweat the small stuff. Retire, Enjoy Day by Day. Control What You Can. :happy Unfortunately, some of us weren't blessed with the nerves (and other things) of steel that you have, Toons. This is why I engaged in liability matching so that market correction...
by 2015
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility of spending
Replies: 27
Views: 1702

Re: Volatility of spending

And I'm just returned from a 7600-mile roadtrip spanning the month of March in which I stayed in motels and ate meals out every day except one. So my spending was higher for March than February most likely. I guess I'm not really sure what the point of the OP's question is... Sounds like the point ...
by 2015
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 6229

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Personally, I think it's shameful when people actively choose to not engage in second stage thinking. Yet another benefit of choosing simplicity is one gets to cease worshiping at the alter of false gods (while falling into the trap of appeal to authority) It's wise to remember that in open systems ...
by 2015
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best thing to prepare for care for parents
Replies: 17
Views: 1663

Re: Best thing to prepare for care for parents

One of the most important things you can do for yourself is to study well in advance on what a caregiver is, what the totality of caregiving entails, and the many pitfalls of doing so when one is unprepared.

https://www.caregiver.org/work-and-eldercare
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 6229

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Always interesting how much click bait comes with its own Opportunity Costs warning...such as those with the word "ultimate" in the title. If anyone found the "ultimate" anything they wouldn't have to write about it in order to monetize it. I'm beginning to believe those who write in the fields of ...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good resources for liability matching
Replies: 21
Views: 1666

Re: Good resources for liability matching

TIPS bonds, as well as duration matched combinations of TIPS bond funds, and I-bonds are good ways to match consumption liabilities in retirement. But even better methods are Social Security and real life annuities including longevity annuities, and real pensions. Other liability matching methods w...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 6229

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold...thoughts?

Always interesting how much click bait comes with its own Opportunity Costs warning...such as those with the word "ultimate" in the title. If anyone found the "ultimate" anything they wouldn't have to write about it in order to monetize it. I'm beginning to believe those who write in the fields of i...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?
Replies: 80
Views: 4895

Re: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?

My idea was and still is: When you no longer need to work and can maintain the same lifestyle as you did when working . Also, it will not matter what the market does. You may want to work full or part time but you don't have to. So, working will be for fun. Not about the money. I cant' understand t...
by 2015
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website - News & Blog
Replies: 9
Views: 1190

Re: Vanguard website - News & Blog

Howard wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:27 am
That is not an efficient way to try and stay current.
...
Agreed. I believe it's a totally inefficient way to improve one's decision making, which will have more of an impact on outcomes than supporting those who regularly publish marketing veiled as information.
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When income stream covers all expenses in retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 1574

Re: When income stream covers all expenses in retirement

Ask them how much they are willing to see disappear during a bad market. 50%? 30%? 10%? That will determine how much risk they should take. Agreed. I would also ask what has been their historical relationship with risk of all kinds. Risk considered in terms of emotional response in a broad historic...
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What? No Income?
Replies: 62
Views: 7150

Re: What? No Income?

... What's it like for those of you who voluntarily quit a good job (you like the job OK, wouldn't do it for free though) and retire? Did you dwell on the fact that you could have a bunch more money if you'd just keep going a bit more? I left a very good job and very good career options because the...
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Adjusting to lower compensation from a retirement job
Replies: 42
Views: 1802

Re: Adjusting to lower compensation from a retirement job

Do benefits jobs really exist? If they do, can't hurt to try one. Not really sure, Starbucks and HomeDepot were once famous for this but that really isn't likely something I could deal with very long. It may be for me that retirement is a binary decision but I thought the option was worth exploring...
by 2015
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?
Replies: 80
Views: 4895

Re: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?

My idea was and still is: When you no longer need to work and can maintain the same lifestyle as you did when working . Also, it will not matter what the market does. You may want to work full or part time but you don't have to. So, working will be for fun. Not about the money. I cant' understand t...
by 2015
Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hate bonds
Replies: 116
Views: 13339

Re: I hate bonds

I have no problem reprimanding (more like admonishing) those who stop at first stage thinking. The opportunity cost in chasing performance or yield is staggering if you really understand that you could be doing literally anything at this moment. We humans are great at building cages of our own maki...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hate bonds
Replies: 116
Views: 13339

Re: I hate bonds

I have no problem reprimanding (more like admonishing) those who stop at first stage thinking. The opportunity cost in chasing performance or yield is staggering if you really understand that you could be doing literally anything at this moment. We humans are great at building cages of our own makin...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good resources for liability matching
Replies: 21
Views: 1666

Re: Good resources for liability matching

I have entirely too much living to do in retirement and not enough time to do it in to be chasing yield or performance, so my liability matching consists entirely of CD's. The simplicity is unsurpassed and I get to spend my time at my favorite bakery drinking coffee, reading, pausing occasionally to...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Valuing retirement years
Replies: 35
Views: 3656

Re: Valuing retirement years

Sample size of 1: My decade of early retirement, 55-65, was the best years of my life. Now near 70 and dear wife has a slow, terminal medical condition, while I have all of the earliest symptoms of future dementia. Dang. But we are grateful for those extra years of good times together. Yes. This is...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Valuing retirement years
Replies: 35
Views: 3656

Re: Valuing retirement years

Sample size of 1: My decade of early retirement, 55-65, was the best years of my life. Now near 70 and dear wife has a slow, terminal medical condition, while I have all of the earliest symptoms of future dementia. Dang. But we are grateful for those extra years of good times together. Yes! This is...
by 2015
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 70
Views: 6656

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

Opines that focus on matters such as these comes at the expense of more impactful matters (such as attention to diet, substances ingested, and exercise).
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I will never stop repeating that agility, flexibility, resilience and a platter full of options are far more valuable than any obsession with certainty or "The Answer." I largely agree with this point and would add fiscal conservatism to that list. Yes! You know what? I'd have to say fiscal conserv...
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Valuing retirement years
Replies: 35
Views: 3656

Re: Valuing retirement years

I don't personally believe there is more value in the early phase of retirement. A wise person once told me you should have dreams at every age, and as part of my High Performance Aging project, my phrase is "the best is yet to come." For me, age is a mental disease, socially contagious, and one tha...
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

What I've done is to eschewed arrogance and overconfidence . . . . I'm looking for words with which to address this particular assertion. Perhaps I'll just say that believing that common sense (which is unique to the person holding the belief) always trumps intellectual rigor is, itself, just anoth...
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 278
Views: 27664

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

Sometimes places are affordable for a reason. Can't imagine living in retirement in some of the places in the top ten. Like CO :) https://i.imgur.com/FK896bS.jpg That's akin to the view outside my windows (though I am in CA, not CO). I read tons of books and articles like this before retirement. No...
by 2015
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)
Replies: 36
Views: 2229

Re: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)

I love my ASUS Vivobook, which I got as a result of reading threads here. It's perfect for my needs.
by 2015
Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I think if these threads resembled something more akin to informed debate about the accuracy and precision of forecasts they'd be more productive. Instead, we get a lot of "nobody nows nothing" type arguments. Rather than trying to draw a binary distinction between "past data" and "timeless data" (...
by 2015
Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shut off water before a vacation
Replies: 78
Views: 6008

Re: Shut off water before a vacation

Only during the winter. I turn off the furnace humidifier. I don't shut off the hot water heater because its gas and I'd rather not mess with it . If it was electric I would at least dial it down to the lowest setting or maybe turn it off. I also have gas. Wouldn't the benefit of turning off the ga...
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Q to ppl who use spreadsheet for personal finance
Replies: 64
Views: 5325

Re: Q to ppl who use spreadsheet for personal finance

1-3 Yes with Excel, 4-6, No.

I'm at a point where I want to spend the absolute minimum amount of time on my investing and personal finance.
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My Life in Retirement - Thank You !!
Replies: 30
Views: 4141

Re: My Life in Retirement - Thank You !!

The Outsider wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:46 pm
Congrats

Hard work, and good judgment. Enjoy, you earned it

Respect
I second the above.
Welcome to what can be the most fulfilling time of your life.
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $480K, no job, special needs kids, what to do?
Replies: 52
Views: 5549

Re: $480K, no job, special needs kids, what to do?

... Like you we have spent tens of thousands on therapies. Perhaps approaching 6 figures all total. Many of them out of network. It is a difficult decision. You always want the best for your kids so money is no object. But it is really hard to evaluate how much good these therapies do. You may spen...
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shut off water before a vacation
Replies: 78
Views: 6008

Re: Shut off water before a vacation

Only during the winter. I turn off the furnace humidifier. I don't shut off the hot water heater because its gas and I'd rather not mess with it . If it was electric I would at least dial it down to the lowest setting or maybe turn it off. I also have gas. Wouldn't the benefit of turning off the ga...
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I think the distinction people are trying to make without quite having the words isn't between "past data" and "future data" but between "past data" and "timeless data". You are being commendably charitable, I'd say. I think if these threads resembled something more akin to informed debate about th...
by 2015
Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement: What expenses did you reduce?
Replies: 63
Views: 4264

Re: Retirement: What expenses did you reduce?

Saved a lots of money losing the daily cafe mocha habit as a result of no longer having to anesthesize myself from working.
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When Will the Momentum Kick In?
Replies: 18
Views: 1455

Re: When Will the Momentum Kick In?

Momentum kicks in when one has finally learned to turn one's attention to the many more important areas in life than investing, personal finance, and microeconomics. You will have learned that the solid satisfaction and fulfillment humans seek is built on qualities that can never be found focusing s...
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Change international % in equities over time?
Replies: 11
Views: 937

Re: Change international % in equities over time?

It's not a question I consider worthy of my consideration. I've been at 80/20 US/Int'l and don't pay enough attention to my portfolio as it is without thinking whether I should change any allocation. My 3 fund portfolio has freed me to focus on what I consider to be much more important things in lif...
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Today I turned 30, and I woke up wanting to better my financial future!
Replies: 46
Views: 4760

Re: Today I turned 30, and I woke up wanting to better my financial future!

Congratulations on turning 30 and being vastly smarter than I was at your age. My theory is that because in the never ending historical battle between labor and capital labor is currently losing, many are turning to the markets to secure their future. I liken this to the new gold rush and the only t...
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

So far, nobody has presented a non-statistical method for arriving at their investment decisions (whether implemented by them or using the work of others), except the method of randomness, which is arguably not a method. It does seem many of the posters railing against statistics have a large enoug...
by 2015
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise
Replies: 162
Views: 10982

Re: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise

There are different kind of folks with different mindsets. There is no one size fits all. ... Precisely. I haven't had a mortgage in decades. It's worked for the purposes and within the confines of my own complex adaptive system. I don't care what others have done, are doing, or will do. I never lo...
by 2015
Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal information management: Zettelkasten / The Brain / Scrivener
Replies: 17
Views: 2199

Re: Personal information management: Zettelkasten / The Brain / Scrivener

Interesting. Since retiring, I've been actively engaged in what I refer to as a Mental Software Update project. As part of that, upon retirement I threw away tons of notes, books, artifacts, and scores of things that were important to who I'd been in the past. In moving last year, I threw out all of...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

If someone has a strategy that amounts to following the people who are using maps, is it not a little disingenuous for them to say that maps play no role in their movement? +1 Why is selecting an AA because it "looks pretty" not a meaningfully worse approach than one that at least takes the history...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11421

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

So far, nobody has presented a non-statistical method for arriving at their investment decisions (whether implemented by them or using the work of others), except the method of randomness, which is arguably not a method. It does seem many of the posters railing against statistics have a large enoug...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanics of Flight to quality
Replies: 11
Views: 1497

Re: Mechanics of Flight to quality

By "Flight to Quality" I was thinking The Three Fund Portfolio while looking for the mechanics of fleeing there and away from all the noise. My bad.
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ASUS' live update software hacked, signed with ASUS digital certificate
Replies: 6
Views: 906

Re: ASUS' live update software hacked, signed with ASUS digital certificate

On this page ASUS provides a link to a diagnostic tool to check if your computer has been compromised: https://www.asus.com/News/hqfgVUyZ6uyAyJe1 Also, from Reddit: This only affects ASUS machines running Live Update that was downloaded between June and November of 2018. That puts approximately 3-4 ...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 3216

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

Gym equipment such as barbells, dumbbells, and almost-never-used treadmills and bowflexes regularly shows up on my local Craigslist for low prices compared to new, because lots of people buy the stuff then quickly lose interest . ... Yea. Every time Isomeone says they're going to create a home gym ...
by 2015
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Q: Family Responsibility for Deceased Brother Auto Accident Prior to Death
Replies: 57
Views: 4514

Re: Q: Family Responsibility for Deceased Brother Auto Accident Prior to Death

I am not a lawyer, and am looking at this thread a "financial perspective' based on my training which may be exactly the VERY WRONG. But please hear me out: From a cost benefit standpoint on a fairly insignicant amount of $2000: I know the insurer does not have a copy of the death certificate which...
by 2015
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Baby Boglehead - Investing after "winning the game"
Replies: 42
Views: 7785

Re: Baby Boglehead - Investing after "winning the game"

I've never really thought about re-adjusting AA once turning Social Security on. If I'm 67 or 70 when that happens and returns stay on track with historical data, do I want to go back to say 60/40 from 50/50 to try and gain 4/10s of one percent (8.8 versus 8.4) ? In my case, absolutely not. I shudd...
by 2015
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to juggle Roth conversions with staying under ACA cliff?
Replies: 22
Views: 1540

Re: How to juggle Roth conversions with staying under ACA cliff?

Don't forget to take into account in your analysis that even under the cliff, there is a somewhat linear loos of subsidy with increasing income. So, if you are converting in what is the 22% bracket, the conversion will actually cost you about 32% when you include the lowered subsidy amount due to t...
by 2015
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two factor authentication loophole?
Replies: 32
Views: 3285

Re: Two factor authentication loophole?

How is the app more secure if any stranger can install Bank XYZ's app on their phone and access my account with just the username and password, while the site requires 2FA to a phone number or device that I've registered? Think of it this way: the MFA is necessary to make the website as secure as t...