Apropos having bought the house decades ago... Chances are it needs renovation. Almost everything degrades or goes bad in a house with time. A whole house renovation in coastal California is very expensive. In the Bay Area, it's in the $600K+ ballpark these days for a 4bd/2.5ba if you go down to the studs on the interior (but not exterior, which would be more costly). This is without landscaping work.
Search found 2959 matches
- Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
- Replies: 180
- Views: 15197
Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
- Fri Mar 15, 2024 9:28 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
- Replies: 74
- Views: 11769
Re: moving from ~600k to ~1.5M income
What DonIce is describing is indeed not uncommon in tech. Such people typically worked hard at some stages of their careers to get to where they are in terms of achievements, skills, and connections, but then find themselves in positions where they can coast at high income for quite a long time.
- Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: FIRE vs Loving your work
- Replies: 101
- Views: 8369
Re: FIRE vs Loving your work
Working in tech. Late 50s. No intention to retire as long as my job is mostly enjoyable and fulfilling. It's not about making money anymore for me, but that's an added bonus.
If I wanted not to work, I would have preferred not to work when young actually. Now that I'm on the older side, my (non-physical) work is better than not working I believe. In some sense, we live our lives backwards, unfortunately. When young, healthy, and energetic, we don't have much free time or money. When old, the situation flips, but that's not good either.
If I wanted not to work, I would have preferred not to work when young actually. Now that I'm on the older side, my (non-physical) work is better than not working I believe. In some sense, we live our lives backwards, unfortunately. When young, healthy, and energetic, we don't have much free time or money. When old, the situation flips, but that's not good either.
- Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:30 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
I believe in the strength of the American economy, that's why I'm all in on US equities. I also believe the long-term strength of our economy trumps the long-term strength of the international economy. America is THE world super power, that has to be factored into decisions such as market allocations. I'm not sure that being the world superpower guarantees outperformance or prevents financial collapse. I also don't know if being the world superpower is guaranteed to be a permanent state. "Guaranteed" and "likely" are different. If what you're factoring in is the assumption that the above are guaranteed, that's great if you're sure, but I'm not. The US market has returned 11.2%/yr. since 1945...That's a horse worth betti...
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:28 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What's your allocation for International Stocks?
- Replies: 101
- Views: 6960
Re: What's your allocation for International Stocks?
Thankfully, 0% throughout my 30 years of investment.
- Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:49 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Future companies aren't priced in. Major new highly successful companies appear much more in the US.ParlayBogle wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:57 am Why do you believe that this isn't correctly priced into US vs ex-US discounted rates of future earnings?
- Sun Jan 28, 2024 5:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
If no one has posted this yet, here is the new Goldman Sachs january 'Outlook' from the 'Investment Strategy Group' they make each year. I find these to be very thoughtful and so far very good at predictions and giving advice. https://privatewealth.goldmansachs.com/outlook/2024-isg-outlook.pdf My respect for Goldman Sachs increased after reading their outlook. It would be so easy for them to follow groupthink like Vanguard and almost everyone else, but they resisted that easy temptation. Good for them. Of course I agree with their conclusion: America Powers On. I also agree with their two primary investment themes: US Preeminence and Staying Invested. I enjoyed seeing this chart on R&D. It helps explain why so many innovations happen i...
- Sun Jan 28, 2024 6:46 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
... Again, why can’t we manufacture as much compared to the rest of the world? Why don’t we have the greatest technology when it comes to fabricating chips or the assembly of electronics? Why is BYD selling more EVs than Tesla? Why is Airbus eating into Boeing’s market share? And why, even if everything you says was true, would the market have not priced this in? Multiples for US stocks are nearly double the international counterparts. US would need to be able to grow significantly faster to counteract this high hurdle rate of cost If we agree with Marc Andreessen, that "software will eat the world", then US stock market big-tech leadership is the result of deliberate value-added decisions. Manufacturing and hardware of whatever ...
- Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:19 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
USD/EUR is the same now as it was 25 years ago...Beensabu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:30 pmThe dollar.Charles Joseph wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:23 pmI feel really dumb for asking, but what is it?Beensabu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:39 pmThere is one big giant one, that everyone knows about, that nobody seems to believe will change as quickly as it definitely can under certain circumstances, and which kind of sort of looks like might actually be on a pivot point right now (vs the gradual half a century thing most seem to be assuming). But you know, whatever.unwitting_gulag wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:43 pm what are the fundamentals, ripe for change, that could plausibly alter the status quo?
- Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
The article's authors note multiple periods, where the US market had narrow leadership of one or another kind, followed by reversal. Starting with the Nifty Fifty, now with the Mag-7. Taking a broader view, this leadership has actually been quite consistent, even if punctuated by occasional periods of reversal: big US Tech. Big US Tech has been the dominant story since the 1960s. Sure, we have the 1970s and the dot.com bust. I regard these as mere blips. I see a more or less straight path from Xerox in 1964 to Nvidia in 2024. Consider a buy-and-hold investor who went all-in, into a US tech mega-cap index fund in the 1960s (if one existed!), never sold and never rebalanced. Over 60 years, how would this investor have done, compared to the 3...
- Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:12 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How do you retire when you love your work?
- Replies: 163
- Views: 12996
Re: How do you retire when you love your work?
Someone I met recently who is in his 60s said to me: "if I retire, I expire". He was in big tech, retired from that, but then took a government IT job even though he could retire.
- Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not just VOO and chill?
- Replies: 78
- Views: 8136
Re: Why not just VOO and chill?
Doubtful. Ex-US is so hopelessly behind that even if it outperforms for a while at some point, who cares.ksualum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:33 amExactly! I feel like we could probably use this forum as a predictor of a change in outperformance. Recency bias at its best. If international starts outperforming you will start seeing post like "what percentage of your portfolio should one allocate to international and emerging markets"
- Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not just VOO and chill?
- Replies: 78
- Views: 8136
- Tue Jan 23, 2024 1:09 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What happened in 2012 that US stocks took off?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 3143
Re: What happened in 2012 that US stocks took off?
Tech company dominance. The 2010s was the decade that the big tech companies ate the world. Although parts of the value chain were overseas, the highest margin parts were all in the US... Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft. This had nothing to do with rates since these companies for the most part are pretty low in capital intensivity compared to other kinds of companies that need a lot more capex to run their businesses. Right, but other parts of the US stock market outperformed as well (just not as much). I think a deeper question in the context of these top companies is why other countries haven't been able to produce an Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Google, Facebook, or Tesla (with the exception is China which isn't really a...
- Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:08 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
- Replies: 203
- Views: 26150
Re: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
Not really - no good reason to believe that such things will be more impactful in the future than they've been in the past in terms of making the S&P 500 underperform in the long run.Johm221122 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:22 pmHow about high valuations? Reversion to the mean? Something in the US's immediate future?visualguy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:54 pmUnknown, but not random. The action isn't going to shift to other stock asset classes because of some flip of a coin.Johm221122 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:17 pm The S&P 500 HAS kept powering along. The future is unknown
- Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
- Replies: 203
- Views: 26150
Re: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
Unknown, but not random. The action isn't going to shift to other stock asset classes because of some flip of a coin.Johm221122 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:17 pm The S&P 500 HAS kept powering along. The future is unknown
- Mon Jan 22, 2024 3:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
- Replies: 203
- Views: 26150
Re: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
Shiller CAPE 32 and gains concentrated in 7 mega caps. Doesn't feel like a real victory for the portfolio going forward even though logically buy and hold is the most efficient method of investing. I just wish the rest of the market would follow suit in some way - feels like a bubble (not that I would do anything about it). Well if the US market is currently being pushed by 7 mega cap stocks doesn't that seem like maybe international, small cap,mid cap and value may carry the returns in near future. Not saying anyone should time the market but they should always be diversfied. I could never be 100% Large cap US or technology The question is at what point diversification becomes diworsification. I never felt comfortable with 100% large cap ...
- Sun Jan 21, 2024 1:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
- Replies: 203
- Views: 26150
Re: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
Mere patience wouldn't be enough for that. Maybe immortality is the requirementAvidswimmer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 9:11 pmHigher highs, lower lows. But waiting for international to outperform… that takes patience. Almost all the big firms predicted international would outperform the S&P in 2023. Ooopsie!Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 9:04 pmHistorically, the S&P 500 has been more prone to longer durations of negative real returnsAvidswimmer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 9:00 pmFor exUS, even longer.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:37 pmTrue, but sometimes patience requires 2 years, sometimes it requires 10-15+
So that remark isn’t accurate
- Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Why does VTIAX international fund have half the ROE as VTSAX US fund?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1022
Re: Why does VTIAX international fund have half the ROE as VTSAX US fund?
That's why you don't want all your investments to be in the stock markets.livesoft wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:59 amI think so. Namely: Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Brexit, Argentina, Africa are just some reasons.starlight2019 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:06 amIs there a clear reason why the international fund has an ROE equal to only about half of the US fund? Should this be a concern?
I don't think International will catch up to the US, but I do think the US will catch down to the International.
- Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
- Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:54 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Is the thesis that the US was the only country doing QE in isolation? Seems many, many countries have been doing QE as well during those same time periods, some to even greater extents. Also, QE did not “end,” it simply restarted under a different name (the BTFP). They telegraphed an end to QE to appear strong on the inflation fight, but QE is necessary for the entire jenga tower to not come crashing down, so they simply rebranded it and now it is “stealth QE” under a different name. It is less about the term QE and more about overall liquidity injection, however that ends up being accomplished seems less important. If you look at financial conditions, they have actually been loosening since BTFP, resulting in the same outcome that QE caus...
- Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Congrats on making the right call on this Billy C, and Happy New Year.
Staying away from investing in the ex-US index has been by far the best investment decision that I made during my 30-year accumulation period. I have to say, though, that I have been continuously surprised by how lousy this investment turned out to be over these years and decades. I never liked it, but didn't really expect it to do this poorly. I feel bad for people who put a significant chunk of their life's savings into this.
Staying away from investing in the ex-US index has been by far the best investment decision that I made during my 30-year accumulation period. I have to say, though, that I have been continuously surprised by how lousy this investment turned out to be over these years and decades. I never liked it, but didn't really expect it to do this poorly. I feel bad for people who put a significant chunk of their life's savings into this.
- Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
There is a fundamental cognitive error in using valuations to determine your allocation. Valuations don't tell you where things are going. They tell you where things have been. Thats why "valuations are not actionable". No one knows if or when valuations will change to benefit ex-US holdings. No one knows if or when currency flows will reverse. If foreigners are increasing their overall holdings despite rising valuations in US during a time of dropping valuations in foreign markets perhaps we should try to find out why? perhaps the insiders know something :D Therefore I feel that allocating to ex-US is as much a bet as not allocating to ex-US. That's also the problem with the "everything is already priced in" argument. ...
- Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
There is a fundamental cognitive error in using valuations to determine your allocation. Valuations don't tell you where things are going. They tell you where things have been. Thats why "valuations are not actionable". No one knows if or when valuations will change to benefit ex-US holdings. No one knows if or when currency flows will reverse. If foreigners are increasing their overall holdings despite rising valuations in US during a time of dropping valuations in foreign markets perhaps we should try to find out why? perhaps the insiders know something :D Therefore I feel that allocating to ex-US is as much a bet as not allocating to ex-US. That's also the problem with the "everything is already priced in" argument. ...
- Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Right, cause Europe and Japan (most of ex-US) are about to start killing it - you just wait and see, any day now. Great things are afoot there. They are just really good at keeping all that action secret, but they'll start kicking US butt any day now.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 12:21 am This recent rational reminder podcast should be required listening for anything interested in this thread topic.
https://youtu.be/y3UK1kc0ako
Conclusion: 100% equities, 0% bonds, 50% US, 50% exUS optimal for retirement outcomes
Investing in single countries alone doubles your chance of failure
- Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Nah, you did the right thing, although I would have sold all of it. I bet you will do that eventually because it will keep being a thorn in your side, so might as well do it now.Flashes1 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 18, 2023 6:42 pm I've sold about 50% of my International equities in the past two days. I couldn't take the underperformance anymore and see no real drivers that would cause it to outperform the US in the near term.
Maybe this marks a good time to buy Intl for the contrarians on the board.
- Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: CCRC's are out. Tips for "aging in place"?
- Replies: 45
- Views: 8983
Re: CCRC's are out. Tips for "aging in place"?
Tough subject with no clear answer. Family members in their nineties have had a person live in, and stay at their house for 3-4 nights. Still not ideal as all nights are not covered. Cost around $3000/ month. Helper cooked, cleaned etc. First helper was stealing, second has been great. Note: this is in a European country. I don’t think you could get this kind of care for this price in hcol US. Sigh, I need a plan B outside of the US. Right, some other countries have much better solutions for this problem in terms of both cost and quality of care. For example, Israel offers a special work visa for caregivers, and there's a service there that matches caregivers with people who need them. Many of their old people who are aging at home have su...
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 7:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
They've already done a lot of that, and grown their companies and economy tremendously, but this hasn't translated to stock market returns for many reasons (share dilution, etc.) The connection between how well the companies do and how well you and I do as shareholders isn't nearly as solid there (and some other countries) as it is in the US. There are many things that we hold as gospel in the US which don't really hold universally.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2023 6:38 pm If China ends up doing all the scary things proclaimed by many people, than a 10X PE will be seen as too high. If they end up not doing those scary things, and manage to create massively global businesses with a huge manufacturing advantage, a 10X PE will look like the steal of the century.
- Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
You were quoting me, but I actually don't understand the underlined point. Sorry, the nested quotes were very similar, and I confused authorship. My point was (and is): what if a tilted approach keeps giving superior results , year after year? We - and that includes me, to a large extent - cling to a more diversified approach, because... well, because of the various reasons that Craig has been diligently collecting. Meanwhile, our approach results in attenuated performance, year after year. Well then, setting aside the arguments for why we do, what we do... I ask a psychological question: how does one abide this perennial underperformance? I'm not advocating for a different approach in how to invest. I am advocating for - or at least askin...
- Wed Sep 27, 2023 4:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
Investing in direct real estate is not about diversification, and it's not about exploiting inefficiencies in the market. I think many professional real estate investors would disagree with you. The timing and choice of property purchases is an important piece of successful real estate investing. Varying prospects by location of a property form one example of an inefficiency. An efficient market would arbitrage that away. But there are a number of other examples, some locally specific. Buying and holding for a long time a small number of properties at locations with the right characteristics (which is not rocket science to figure out) works very well. No need at all for a diversified portfolio, exploiting inefficiencies, or whatever else. ...
- Wed Sep 27, 2023 2:41 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
This is the wrong forum to discuss direct real estate investment, so not much point in getting further into it here. Someone asked about an alternative investment for protecting against inflation, so I raised it. Investing in direct real estate is not about diversification, and it's not about exploiting inefficiencies in the market.
- Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
And if you have to go to 1700s Amsterdam to try and prove a point, your viewpoint has some serious weaknesses. We use stock exchange data back to the 1700s. Government bonds back to the 1200s-1300s. There is housing price data in Paris back to the 1300s. On stocks our confidence in their quality is much lower for the 1800s - whereas government bonds it's pretty good all the way back. Bottom line, in financial research we tend to use long time series, if they are valid. That series of Amsterdam data, being on one particular set of properties and houses, is a sort of Gold Standard. Shiller takes you through why houses have not returned what people thought they returned. Easy to undervalue the cost of repairs & maintenance, in the long ru...
- Wed Sep 27, 2023 6:13 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
What is alternative for long term? Real estate. Don't count on it. Real estate can crash horribly. If you can't pay the taxes, you may not be able to hold said real estate long enough to benefit from any purported benefit. Also, don't forget that real estate especially developed real estate is a depreciating asset if you don't continually invest in its upkeep. Even raw land requires some level of ongoing investment. My family has been able to count on it for 3 generations. I'm much less worried about my properties than my stock market investments. Seeing as you have the benefit of generational wealth and hindsight, would you be so quick to offer the same response if you were starting out in 2005 with zero experience as a first generation i...
- Tue Sep 26, 2023 4:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
What is alternative for long term? Real estate. Don't count on it. Real estate can crash horribly. If you can't pay the taxes, you may not be able to hold said real estate long enough to benefit from any purported benefit. Also, don't forget that real estate especially developed real estate is a depreciating asset if you don't continually invest in its upkeep. Even raw land requires some level of ongoing investment. My family has been able to count on it for 3 generations. I'm much less worried about my properties than my stock market investments. In my 40+ years of adult life the one thing I wished I would have done differently is real estate. Land in the long run is an exceptional value unless it ends up in a really bad location. Often p...
- Tue Sep 26, 2023 12:18 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
My family has been able to count on it for 3 generations. I'm much less worried about my properties than my stock market investments.Grt2bOutdoors wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 11:29 pmDon't count on it. Real estate can crash horribly. If you can't pay the taxes, you may not be able to hold said real estate long enough to benefit from any purported benefit. Also, don't forget that real estate especially developed real estate is a depreciating asset if you don't continually invest in its upkeep. Even raw land requires some level of ongoing investment.
- Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:17 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks Have Been a Poor Inflation Hedge
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10910
- Sun Sep 24, 2023 11:38 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Health Insurance Basic Question
- Replies: 29
- Views: 3163
Re: Health Insurance Basic Question
I suppose for out of network cost, the thing to worry about is a higher deductible for out of pocket? But the principle still applies here, i.e. as long as you can afford the premium and out-of-pocket cost, you're safe? Or is it some policy out there which don't cover out of network at all, or have no cap on out-of-pocket cost if it arises due to out-of-network? Two separate tiers of pricing. Typically the out of network deductible is higher (percentage co-pays assessed) and the maximum out of pocket is much higher. You're "safe" if you can afford these much higher costs than in network. You are not safe because you are subject to balance billing where the provider bills you for the difference between what they charge and what th...
- Sun Sep 24, 2023 2:35 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Health Insurance Basic Question
- Replies: 29
- Views: 3163
Re: Health Insurance Basic Question
I suppose for out of network cost, the thing to worry about is a higher deductible for out of pocket? But the principle still applies here, i.e. as long as you can afford the premium and out-of-pocket cost, you're safe? Or is it some policy out there which don't cover out of network at all, or have no cap on out-of-pocket cost if it arises due to out-of-network? What you're missing is that the out-of-network provider can bill you for the difference between what they charge and what the insurance covered, and this doesn't count toward the out-of-pocket max. Also, there are indeed ACA policies that don't cover out-of-network providers at all, and it's not uncommon in parts of the country to have only policies with pathetic networks. Another ...
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
I agree that you get the market return, but that's just a tautology if you define it as the return on investing regularly in the market-cap weighted index. It's a performance chasing investment strategy - it's inherent in it. Yes, it's a tautology. It's not a "performance chasing investment strategy". You're basically discounting the meaning of words. I don't know how else to say it. In this thread, we've now had people say "everything is market-timing", and now you are saying "everything is performance chasing", so there's nothing left. There is no passive investing possible, under your and other people's definitions. I don't why this makes you happy. We seriously are in "The Incredibles" where Synd...
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
What's the difference between chasing momentum and chasing performance? I don't see the difference, and what you mean by "calibrated to zero for the total market" is not clear. Equity factors attempt to explain what return is not explained by market return. That is, explain the return laden in alpha in CAPM, the Capital Assets Pricing Model. When you hold the market portfolio, all alpha and all factors other than the market factor are diversified away. So a momentum factor has a zero weight for the market portfolio. The market portfolio gives you the market return from the point at which a purchase is made. When you deploy new contributions some of it will buy stocks with positive momentum and some will buy stocks with negative m...
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
For me, performance chasing means selling current investments to buy newer investments that have recently gone up. since passive indexing does not entail selling existing investments, but rather maintaining existing investments. it is not performance chasing in my eyes. You can't accuse me of performance chasing. I am just trying to be average/mediocre. :D Perhaps you need to properly define what you mean by performance chasing. then the discussion can be productive. Buying a higher percentage of what has gone up more, and a lower percentage of what has done worse is performance chasing. hmm. so what would you be doing if you were NOT performance chasing. Equal weight investing would be an example of not performance chasing, but many other...
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
It's just strange when people are so averse to performance chasing while being big fans of passive indexing which is a type of performance chasing strategy. For me, performance chasing means selling current investments to buy newer investments that have recently gone up. since passive indexing does not entail selling existing investments, but rather maintaining existing investments. it is not performance chasing in my eyes. You can't accuse me of performance chasing. I am just trying to be average/mediocre. :D Perhaps you need to properly define what you mean by performance chasing. then the discussion can be productive. Buying a higher percentage of what has gone up more, and a lower percentage of what has done worse is performance chasin...
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:54 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
It's just strange when people are so averse to performance chasing while being big fans of passive indexing which is a type of performance chasing strategy. For me, performance chasing means selling current investments to buy newer investments that have recently gone up. since passive indexing does not entail selling existing investments, but rather maintaining existing investments. it is not performance chasing in my eyes. You can't accuse me of performance chasing. I am just trying to be average/mediocre. :D Perhaps you need to properly define what you mean by performance chasing. then the discussion can be productive. Buying a higher percentage of what has gone up more, and a lower percentage of what has done worse is performance chasing.
- Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:24 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
No. Performance chasing is buying what has been hot recently. It means you already missed that hot run-up, so it is not uncommon for subsequent returns to be muted. Passive indexing is also "performance chasing", but it does well... When I buy more VTI, for example, I buy a larger and larger percentage of the stocks that gained. The more a stock gains, the larger the bump on my next purchase, and vice versa. That is a momentum effect that is calibrated to zero for the total market. If new investments were allocated according to some past market weight, the portfolio likely would load negatively on momentum. What's the difference between chasing momentum and chasing performance? I don't see the difference, and what you mean by &qu...
- Mon Sep 18, 2023 4:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Passive indexing is also "performance chasing", but it does well... When I buy more VTI, for example, I buy a larger and larger percentage of the stocks that gained. The more a stock gains, the larger the bump on my next purchase, and vice versa.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:57 pm No. Performance chasing is buying what has been hot recently. It means you already missed that hot run-up, so it is not uncommon for subsequent returns to be muted.
- Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
If these allocation changes are slight and rare, I don't see how they can move the needle meaningfully. It seems contradictory to me.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:13 pm1. It doesn’t happen regularly. Only at extremes
2. I do expect it to move the needle meaningfully over a long horizon, but am accepting of the risk that it won’t
- Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
It’s a bit naive to think you’ll be able to know when to be allocated to exUS Investment returns don’t work that way. You’ll never know the extent, magnitude, or duration of whatever momentum signal you’re chasing This is correct, although a bit funny coming from you. I mean, it's EXACTLY what I've been saying this whole time. If one wants the diversification benefit of International, one should always be diversified, not trying to time when it's the right time to get into International. But that also applies to trying to time when to tilt more (or less) into International as well, which is why it's very weird to me that Nathan just said it. I think the thread can be closed now. When Nathan and I agree on something, I think we've achieved ...
- Wed Sep 13, 2023 2:41 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Owning real estate does diversify the risk, of course. Also, outcome is what ultimately matters, not the level of adherence to some fabricated theology with a harmful track record.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Wed Sep 13, 2023 1:47 pmA successful outcome has nothing to do with the topic of diversifying risk
- Wed Sep 13, 2023 12:49 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
- Replies: 5216
- Views: 833605
Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
But I find it surprising you think it's easy (or even possible) to accurately estimate one's personal risk exposure and calculate the tradeoff of inflation risk vs currency risk. That's what we expect people to do when selecting their stock:bond allocations... There's no formula/calculation, and even the "anticipate a 50% drop in your equity allocation" guideline is based on historical drawdown. So what's so wrong with something like "anticipate a 10-year 0% real return in your home equity allocation" as a guideline based on history? Because those two approximations aren't equal. "50% drop, multiple years to recover" is indeed a very rough approximation of equity risk. But it works fairly well to allow people ...