Search found 1288 matches

by visualguy
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 32
Views: 1913

Re: Excluding International All Together?

So, I'm curious, how many of you out there have chosen to exclude international holdings all together, and if so, why? 0% ex-US indexing for me. No compelling reason to hold it - it hasn't performed well in the past in the long run (especially when taking into account the high volatility for such m...
by visualguy
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 390
Views: 46374

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

Thank you, CyclingDuo, you're very welcome. With 377 posts to date, I'd say you have accomplished your objective very well. There were some remarkable reports in the thread and I'm sure more to come. Thanks for the topic. I wanted to add an excellent pertinent article to this thread from The Atlant...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 390
Views: 46374

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

Technical staff can work for a long time if they have the passion for it. Dream on. How many 50 or even 40 year olds do you think make it into interviews by a twentysomething let alone survive the interview. For generic hires, this can be a problem, but if there's something about your specific expe...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

My husband and I married when he was 36 and I was 27. I love kids and was an elementary school teacher for 30 years. We discussed having children before marriage and my position was if he wanted them, I would try but that I was fine not having them. I had seen too many female teachers talk their hu...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

We have kids, but don’t expect them to take care of us. We are doing a renovation on our house, and while we fully expect to be able to navigate the stairs for many years, and do our own cooking, shopping, etc., a thought in the renovation was to make the house easy to serve as an “aging in place” ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 749

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

So if the efficient market hypothesis is wrong, there may be a big potential benefit by my higher exposure to non-U.S. (in particular emerging), if it is right...well I hold at world cap, so I win either way. This has not been a win so far. We do have a pretty long history to look at, and it's not ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 749

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

So if the efficient market hypothesis is wrong, there may be a big potential benefit by my higher exposure to non-U.S. (in particular emerging), if it is right...well I hold at world cap, so I win either way. This has not been a win so far. We do have a pretty long history to look at, and it's not ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

Not assuming anything, but don't not have kids for financial reasons. If you want kids, you will be much happier having kids and less money than you will not having kids and having more money. I assume you're not having them for another reason (and no need to disclose the reason), but just wanted t...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

Not assuming anything, but don't not have kids for financial reasons. If you want kids, you will be much happier having kids and less money than you will not having kids and having more money. I assume you're not having them for another reason (and no need to disclose the reason), but just wanted t...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

Not assuming anything, but don't not have kids for financial reasons. If you want kids, you will be much happier having kids and less money than you will not having kids and having more money. I assume you're not having them for another reason (and no need to disclose the reason), but just wanted t...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

I have some relatives like that. They have siblings, but in general, they are going to die alone. Pretty easy to choose when you go now. As soon as my wife or I are incapable of independence it's time to pop over to Europe and get help with assisted suicide. Until then we have each other and the op...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 9824

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

I have some relatives like that. They have siblings, but in general, they are going to die alone. The problem is not really so much dying alone, but what happens when living with failed cognitive, mental, and/or physical health. Having no kids in most likelihood makes that stage of life extremely p...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Okay OP, so it's working out for you, and you've made your points as to why. Let readers take that information and do with it what they will, no convincing needed. FWIW, I'm in your camp, owning a couple of properties myself (nice enough that I would happily live in myself) with property management...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

tomtoms,

Many on this forum own rentals. It's a very common investment, and it is a smart thing to do if you have the resources. You are doing fine.
by visualguy
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire in 1 year at 53
Replies: 54
Views: 9080

Re: Can I retire in 1 year at 53

Once in a while I see comments on this forum where people accuse Bogleheads of being completely out of touch with reality. I usually think those people are being unfair. Then I read a thread like this, and I think maybe they have a point. The OP plans to have over 5.0M for retirement, another $600k...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 167
Views: 12199

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

I never fully understood the case for a significant bond holding in either large or small portfolios. I don't quite see the need in the case of retirement savings with the typical 3%-4% WR. Seems like 100% US stock with no bonds has been safe based on all the studies and tables that I've seen. I thi...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 9648

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I have a question for people on both sides of this issue. What would it take to change your mind? It would require significant changes for the better in Europe, Japan, and China, and/or significant changes for the worse in the US. For example, folks like Elon Musk doing their thing outside of the U...
by visualguy
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I've always assumed that housing prices in the bay area are closely tied to the tech economy. Yes, the tech sector had a crash around 2000, but it also rebounded - and then some. I mean, what's going on in bay area tech seems like a once in a generation thing to me. Which is probably leading to the...
by visualguy
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 9648

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

it's called recency bias. People keep repeating this, but it's not just a recent thing. Look back decades, or even a century. Sure, there were periods of out-performance here and there, but over the long run it has under-performed. Draw whatever conclusion you may, but it's not just a recent phenom...
by visualguy
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4419

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

I believe it's okay to align your portfolio to some degree with what you expect to occur in the market's future but it's important to keep in mind that your expectants have a very significant probability of being wrong. There are so many input variables that determine market action, both macro-econ...
by visualguy
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

What exact area are you speaking about then? Bay area for example, but I am sure there are plenty of others. Per your request.... https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby I see a graph going up almost continuously, and in very few years staying constant. Absolute...
by visualguy
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Is that because it can't happen or you don't want to believe it can happen? Isn't one of the big signs of a bubble is people thinking you can't lose money cause things always go up?:) If you look at regional real estate history in the US, drops like what I have describe have happened to numerous ma...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

1-2% isn't the worst case. The worst case is more like -3%/year for a decade or so to go along with falling rents as prices correct from the bubble they are in. That might not be such a great investment. Of course we may or may not be in a bubble. The thing with trends is that they can last a long ...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

BH folks hate single stock risk. Single property rental risk is far more concentrated risk. You can spend your effort trying to pick a single reit instead of vnq. Many single reits have had spectacular returns. How is it so concentrated? The bet is on the economy and supply/demand situation in an a...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I don’t really see how it works unless you assume reasonable appreciation. Hasn't pretty much every HCOL area had reasonable appreciation over the past 20 years? In LCOL areas it is all about making money on rents. In HCOL it is all about paying the mortgage with rents and making tons of money off ...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Engineering Discipline for the next 20+ years !!!
Replies: 155
Views: 16074

Re: Which Engineering Discipline for the next 20+ years !!!

I can tell you that in the specific field of Computer Science things are getting tougher and tougher because there are a lot of programmers out there and companies are making the interviews harder to be able to filter and find the good ones. Why? because they want the productive ones that can gener...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series
Replies: 56
Views: 4240

Re: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series

24k total one payment for 3 yr lease of new bmw is the deal I got. Makes me feel sorry for the money for 3 yrs. I’m torn. Part of me wants a luxury car like Tesla or bmw because I can afford it (Networth/income 98-99% for age) and it’s nice status symbol. While my boglehead side wants to get a prac...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios
Replies: 50
Views: 4907

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios

I entirely agree that 4% is a conservative starting point True for the US market based on its history, but not true for ex-US. What if the US starts performing like ex-US has performed? Is that really so unlikely that we can reasonably ignore it? Also, what about the people who have a large percent...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios
Replies: 50
Views: 4907

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios

I entirely agree that 4% is a conservative starting point True for the US market based on its history, but not true for ex-US. What if the US starts performing like ex-US has performed? Is that really so unlikely that we can reasonably ignore it? Also, what about the people who have a large percent...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series
Replies: 56
Views: 4240

Re: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series

BMW is so unreliable and expensive to maintain. They are ranked very high overall in reliability these days, actually. Some of their models are less reliable than others. Their 4 and 6 cylinder cars and SUVs of recent vintage are fine. The 8 cylinder ones are more challenging on that front, but the...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6548

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

It's definitely better diversification than just the stock market (or stocks/bonds), and it does relatively well with inflation. The single location isn't really equivalent to a single stock... Places like the current economic centers of the coasts will continue to do well even if some of the leadi...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Personally I would rather donate to charity. Just a waste of wealth to indulge in pure luxury when the money could do good to people in need. Anyway, 150K isn't close to a supercar. I would say 500k to 1M to get into supercar territory. These products are made, sold, and maintained by people who re...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

OP - You want to park a $200,000 car in a Denver neighborhood where your house is worth $550,000? Or did I read something wrong? $550K for a house in Denver isn't all that much and it might draw unnecessary attention. Presumably OP has a garage. Which reminds me of the other problem with getting su...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 173
Views: 17779

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

lostdog wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:01 pm
Sure it did, for 11 years....
You forgot to put a zero to the right of that number...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6548

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

Real estate is indeed about individual markets, so, yeah, you don't buy some random property somewhere or an index, but it's not rocket science. A couple of good properties in desirable and economically strong parts of the country give you good diversification from stocks-only or stocks with bonds ...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 173
Views: 17779

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

My personal view is that no one can convince the other wrt this topic since it is inherently political. You just can't convince the opposition no matter what data you throw at each other - it's more of an ideology conflict . While It's hard to argue against American Exceptionalism given its past pe...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6548

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

You still run into the problem that everything we talk about is the past and the past doesn't dictate the futures. Given past results 100% SV would be an easy choice. Win big a lot of times, and lose small the rest. But who knows what the future will bring. We could have had a lucky 100 year stock ...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 173
Views: 17779

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

My personal view is that no one can convince the other wrt this topic since it is inherently political. You just can't convince the opposition no matter what data you throw at each other - it's more of an ideology conflict . While It's hard to argue against American Exceptionalism given its past pe...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Why did you keep doing it? I did it 3 times. Two of those times I tried different types of cars. The third time I was (temporarily) retired, so thought it would make sense because I would actually have the time to enjoy it. As it turned out, none of those times made sense overall other than to get ...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6548

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

Absolutely, which illustrates that relying solely on stocks or a stock/bond combo is risky even in the long run.
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

So, here's an interesting one that I want to see if any Bogleheads have ever been in a similar scenario and have purchased a supercar and more importantly do you think it has provided any value/happiness/fun in your life , and would you or have you done it again ? I did it 3 times. The fun on publi...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6548

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

You still run into the problem that everything we talk about is the past and the past doesn't dictate the futures. Given past results 100% SV would be an easy choice. Win big a lot of times, and lose small the rest. But who knows what the future will bring. We could have had a lucky 100 year stock ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7582

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

While I think the U.S. economy currently has a better outlook than many other development markets, I don't equate that with it necessarily being a great time to buy U.S. stocks. The problem is that even if it's not "a great time to buy U.S. stocks", it doesn't follow that it makes sense to buy ex-U...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7582

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

True, and the talent flows to Silicon Valley from all over the world, which is a particularly amazing self-perpetuating success story of immigration. No other country has such a powerful talent magnet. The US in general has been the beneficiary of a global brain drain to a degree that no other coun...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7582

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Why has the US outperformed International specifically? One word: Tech. or FANG Let's look at one of the major factors in the FANG growth and outperformance story: Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley: high desirability weatherwise, lots of capital flowing, capable of commanding top tier engineering tale...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 37378

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

- Public company executives: you have to get lucky and more important be GREAT at office politics. No thanks. This seems to be the “conventional view” especially around here. Agree about the “luck” but I think that’s true of most success situations. As far as “politics” go,I have a different perspe...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7582

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Quantify “growth”. Plenty of data available showing that the US has merely pushed off/delayed the inevitable; stagnation thanks largely in part to accommodating policies and a select, high-flying equity sectors. America is not immune to the same issues being dealt around other areas of the world......
by visualguy
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 37378

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

Quite literally, all we try to do is what we think is best for the patient. I, and my colleagues, try to go by the golden principle, what is best for the patient. But it's a minority of patients who are appreciative of that. My primary care physician sometimes jokes that if you ask 3 non-surgeons f...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 12788

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I think people underestimate the difference between 3 and 4% because it is only 1%. I agree that many underestimate this difference. Historically, it would likely take an additional 5-10 years of saving to achieve 3% withdrawals (i.e. 33.3x annual expenses) after one reaches 25x. That's a lot of ti...
by visualguy
Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 12788

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I think people underestimate the difference between 3 and 4% because it is only 1%. I agree that many underestimate this difference. Historically, it would likely take an additional 5-10 years of saving to achieve 3% withdrawals (i.e. 33.3x annual expenses) after one reaches 25x. That's a lot of ti...