Search found 1926 matches

by visualguy
Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5543

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

After 9/11 many things were never the same, eg air travel. I don’t know how things will be changed by the pandemic, but it will imo be on a much larger scale than 9/11. For example, commercial real estate will be forever different. There have been worse pandemics (such as the Spanish Flu) without s...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5543

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

I wouldn't expect any significant changes. Like you said, it will remain highly-desirable. By the way, this pandemic will be over just like all others before it, and things will largely go back to the way they were. Sure, maybe WFH will become a bit more common for a while, but this won't make a mea...
by visualguy
Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 17333

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

rob wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:58 pm
Leaving the cult personality out of it.... No bonds... ok, let's say that I buy it... Sign me up....

So what exactly do I put $ in because I don't want to be 100% stock?
Not saying it's the right thing for you, but some here put it in direct real estate.
by visualguy
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15670

Re: Ditching International

What you're doing is called recency bias and performance chasing. There are other popular/prominent members here that do the same but they won't admit it. You'll most likely get approval and a pat on the back from them. Good luck. Does looking at the data from the entire history of the stock market...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15670

Re: Ditching International

Okay. Thanks. I'm a bit amazed they'd put out projections 10 years into the future again. I'm reminded of that joke about putting 10 economists into a room and asking where the economy will be in 1 year - and, then getting 11 predictions. But, I digress... I think someone here on BH found Vanguard'...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15670

Re: Ditching International

Well, I studied engineering - but, I have a very deep respect for history and, in particular, the perspective it can provide. I'm sure things CAN go south quickly - and, that's an alarming thought. I think my investing horizon is about 15-20 years out. I sometimes wonder if the 'certain advantages'...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15670

Re: Ditching International

It's been my limited experience that minds do not get changed over this topic I think some older people tend to distrust non-American humans. Younger people don't trust Americans, either. :wink: You may very well be correct. But, I'm old (early 60s) and I regularly marvel at the genius (across the ...
by visualguy
Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 446
Views: 24565

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

I do understand the appeal of an exotic car, but make sure you read about the ownership experience from people who own the specific car you want. Servicing exotic cars is a really unattractive prospect. Simple repairs can require a wait for parts and removing the engine from the car, from a limited...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16374

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

You're underestimating the impact of 40%... If I had been 40% ex-US during my accumulation period (which is almost over now), I'd be YEARS behind in my retirement savings. It's not some minor difference - we're talking multiple additional years of work to make up the difference. The impact of 40% i...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16374

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

If International earnings growth started to increase at a similar rate to U.S. (it's not necessary for it to be more than U.S.), you would see International out-performance as valuations would likely increase. U.S. valuations do not have to reverse for this to happen. What would cause international...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16374

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

If International earnings growth started to increase at a similar rate to U.S. (it's not necessary for it to be more than U.S.), you would see International out-performance as valuations would likely increase. U.S. valuations do not have to reverse for this to happen. What would cause international...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16374

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

If International earnings growth started to increase at a similar rate to U.S. (it's not necessary for it to be more than U.S.), you would see International out-performance as valuations would likely increase. U.S. valuations do not have to reverse for this to happen. What would cause international...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16374

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

But we don't know that the probability that continued outperformance of U.S. stock is low. Many were saying that a decade ago, and yet U.S. stock has absolutely crushed ex-U.S. over the last decade. Yes, part of the outperformance of U.S. stock is expanding valuations, but most of the outperformanc...
by visualguy
Sun May 24, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do people spend money on?
Replies: 52
Views: 5224

Re: What do people spend money on?

Let's say you had a net worth of $20M and didn't have to work, how would your life be different? That's what I would think about a lot. What net worth do you need to fufill your life goals and something to retire to. And then execute a plan to reach that number and retire. He said that he doesn't w...
by visualguy
Sun May 24, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 370
Views: 31311

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

At an older age, there is an appreciation that I may not have many years of healthy life left. And, as you get older, you may no longer able to see, hear, and taste finer things in your life. And, healthy life will be further shortened in a stressful job. Life is a compromise. But, you cannot buy t...
by visualguy
Sat May 16, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42033

Re: Why international?

In this globalized world the domicile does not matter. The return differences are entirely due to sector and currency differences. The domicile matters a lot. Leading companies in the same sectors perform differently in terms of stock returns across countries, and these differences cannot be explai...
by visualguy
Sat May 16, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42033

Re: Why international?

I think it's worth pointing out for accuracy that S. Africa beat the US in Rands, but lagged in USD. Source? Figure 13 in the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020 (Summary Edition), which shows real annualized equity returns in local currency and USD for 1900-2019. Only one country...
by visualguy
Sat May 16, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42033

Re: Why international?

I pick 6.5% over 4.5% anytime. 117 years means all modern market history. You're not answering the actual hypothetical. We're looking forward, not backward, and we're not comparing US and international, we're comparing US and a global portfolio that includes both US and international. If you won't ...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42033

Re: Why international?

There are only 3,530 companies worth buying, the other 7,425 are just an absolute joke. As negative as I am, I don't believe this, and I don't think you do either. Nestle, Unilever, Toyota, Daimler, Samsung, BP, Novartis, SAP, the list goes on and on. How is it that these companies can't hold a can...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

Honestly, having read dozens and dozens of these kind of threads (maybe over 100 by now?) something has stood out to me. Now there are exceptions here , but: I notice a lot of the U.S. vs International preference often comes down to age demographics. Much of the older ages kind of take on the "Amer...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

All valid points. Just don't consider yourself a passive investor is my point. I'm absolutely a passive investor in the US stock market. I do not invest in many other assets like foreign stock market indexes, foreign bonds, gold, foreign real estate, Bitcoin, peer-to-peer lending, etc., but not inv...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

US outperformance has mostly been after 2009 CAGR 1970-2009 INTL 9.55% US 9.87% The US out-performed significantly before 1970 as well as in more recent decades. You need to look at the Credit Suisse global investment yearbook for 2010, and see the returns for the century up to 2009 (5% ex-US, 6.2%...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

All valid points. Just don't consider yourself a passive investor is my point. I'm absolutely a passive investor in the US stock market. I do not invest in many other assets like foreign stock market indexes, foreign bonds, gold, foreign real estate, Bitcoin, peer-to-peer lending, etc., but not inv...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

to be clear, you’d have no issue with a boglehead approach where equities is comprised of 100% FAANG either right on the same premise? If you can show me historical data indicating FAANG outperformed VTSAX for the past 50 - 100 years, I'd certainly have to at least think about it. Of course, we kno...
by visualguy
Thu May 14, 2020 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

If you read Vanguard`s annual economic report you'll see they expect international to outperform U. S. over the next 10 years. I don't know if they will be right or wrong but they certainly seem more educated than the 100% U. S. crowd who seem to be operating on folk wisdom rather than data. I'd en...
by visualguy
Tue May 12, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

Personally it's not an issue of American exceptionalism in any manner. Rather it's that when I look at major overseas developed markets....I see tremendous economic headwinds. Aging populations, populist/ anti- capitalist movements, weak banks, and weak monetary policy solutions. These are also iss...
by visualguy
Tue May 12, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

Boglehead principles been wrong this whole time. Past performance obviously does predict future results. The Bogleheads approach is based on it working in the past. If it hadn't worked in the past, none of us would be following it. Moreover, if it had performed as ex-US indexing performed in the lo...
by visualguy
Tue May 12, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

International stocks are much cheaper than US stocks. Ok, but what's new there? You could have said the same thing in the past, and ex-US still performed miserably. Why would it be any different now going forward? If anything, I would think that Europe and Japan are in even more trouble and more st...
by visualguy
Tue May 12, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9695

Re: International market recovery

But what I'm hearing in this discussion is that US and International markets have historically behaved in a similar fashion and most (all?) reasonable assumptions about investing in the US market can be applied to the international one. Please correct me if I've misunderstood. If that's what you're...
by visualguy
Mon May 11, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement due to COVID 19 ?
Replies: 82
Views: 6314

Re: Retirement due to COVID 19 ?

Extremely lethal viruses are not as transmittable as a general rule - people get sick and fast and essentially die before giving it to others. So mostly if any widespread mutation will spread, it will likely be less dangerous. By the time any vaccine will be ready, most of the damage will already h...
by visualguy
Sun May 10, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: post covid 19 office work - was coronavirus a game changer for telecommunting?
Replies: 48
Views: 3835

Re: post covid 19 office work - was coronavirus a game changer for telecommunting?

Now, my biggest negative about having a job was actually driving to/from work, waste time in traffic, gas, etc. Working from home made my job very tolerable. Tolerable enough that i even started thinking if working from home will be the new norm, why i should retire, i can just keep working. I've b...
by visualguy
Sun May 10, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 254
Views: 20830

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

I bought a hair-cutting device that I saw on a Chicago-area public access show. The device is called the “Suck-Cut”. It certainly does suck. Top notch branding there! Sounds like the afore-mentioned Flowbee. I didn’t think I was going to have to point this out, but I was wrong. The Suck-Cut was in ...
by visualguy
Sun May 10, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42033

Re: Why international?

Yes. I believe non-USA equities will out perform over the next 10 years. China beats USA. Our equities tilt accordingly. On Mar 31 we over rebalanced our 35/65 to 45/55 after it fell from 40/60. We bought EM and Global SC. In January we will over-rebalance to 50/50. VT vs our equities. VT = 55% USA...
by visualguy
Fri May 08, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do Early Retirees Pay for Medical
Replies: 132
Views: 9982

Re: How Do Early Retirees Pay for Medical

That's the route we would very likely take. It's extremely important for those considering this option to be aware of the limitations and exclusions, but it can be far more cost effective. Yes, this is very true. Even other members often fail to take the time to really learn what it is and how to u...
by visualguy
Thu May 07, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31162

Re: My theory about FIRE

... I'm just pointing out that if you don't set yourself on the right path, or at least avoid the paths that you will will not take you there or will take forever to take you there... you're setting yourself up for failure. My issue is that people here still advocate for slower/inefficient paths. A...
by visualguy
Thu May 07, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31162

Re: My theory about FIRE

Lots of newly minted lawyers have a hard time finding law jobs. And the majority of them are absolutely buried in law school debt. Software development is a tough career. You can't stay on top forever, so severe burnout can be a problem as early as 40. The skills that pay the bills don't age well. ...
by visualguy
Thu May 07, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31162

Re: My theory about FIRE

I would like to see the data on skyrocketing salaries. There's a misconception all STEM majors get FAANG level compensation. According to this, the starting salary for engineering majors is about $70k, depending on the major. That's not terrible, but it's still peanuts compared to what a first year...
by visualguy
Thu May 07, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do Early Retirees Pay for Medical
Replies: 132
Views: 9982

Re: How Do Early Retirees Pay for Medical

The Supreme is slated to hear a case that will determine the future of Obamacare, in October 2020. The risk that it will be eliminated then or some other time in the future makes planning for early retirement very problematic, unfortunately. Yup, living is risky. That has not deterred many from doi...
by visualguy
Wed May 06, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do Early Retirees Pay for Medical
Replies: 132
Views: 9982

Re: How Do Early Retirees Pay for Medical

LilyFleur wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 7:18 pm
The Supreme is slated to hear a case that will determine the future of Obamacare, in October 2020.
The risk that it will be eliminated then or some other time in the future makes planning for early retirement very problematic, unfortunately.
by visualguy
Wed May 06, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1592

Re: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class

I opine that Class A office rental rates will drop dramatically as leases expire and will never return to current levels. One lesson learned from this is that businesses can carry on just fine with a stay-at-home workforce and that the prestige value of fancy offices is overrated. Not disagreeing, ...
by visualguy
Wed May 06, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1592

Re: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class

I believe there will be long term effects but it is hard to know the answer yet. HCOL cities like Silicon valley, Seattle, Denver, Austin have seen steady rise due to tech jobs. If there is one thing covid has proved, its WFH model can work for some industries quite well. I think more techies, acco...
by visualguy
Wed May 06, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16314

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Having made that point, the interview ends with a piece of advice for investors going forward. Don't expect this trend to continue forever. Instead consider rebalancing now from US winners into INTL losers. It's basically the same advice we've been hearing from multiple experts for most of the past...
by visualguy
Tue May 05, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31162

Re: My theory about FIRE

For the past 45 days or so I have had very [ very ] little work but still have been getting paid. Today I did some lawn work and made a sandwich and a fancy iced coffee. What I learned is that I'll be fine in retirement and FIRE certainly doesn't mean "retiring and doing something else", at least n...
by visualguy
Tue May 05, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [thinking about buying a house in LA, wait for RE crash?]
Replies: 66
Views: 4734

Re: do you expect there to be a housing market crash? If so, when?

Talking about the housing market without specifying location (many of the comments here) is meaningless... These are local markets.
by visualguy
Mon May 04, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 31162

Re: My theory about FIRE

For all the people that can not understand how anyone who likes their job/career might decide to actually voluntarily retire, This is interesting. Most days, I completely hate my job. However, this far into the lockdown, there's a part of me looking to get back to work. I miss the social interactio...
by visualguy
Mon May 04, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16314

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

For me, what is most difficult to ignore is policy risk. In part, this is just the possibility of error or bad judgement by policymakers in a given scenario. During the great recession, it was clear that the wrong kind of policy error could have had easily led to a meltdown of the financial system....
by visualguy
Mon May 04, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 42033

Re: Why international?

Yes. I believe non-USA equities will out perform over the next 10 years. China beats USA. Our equities tilt accordingly. On Mar 31 we over rebalanced our 35/65 to 45/55 after it fell from 40/60. We bought EM and Global SC. In January we will over-rebalance to 50/50. VT vs our equities. VT = 55% USA...
by visualguy
Sun May 03, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why doesn't Porsche have better resale value?
Replies: 50
Views: 5503

Re: Why doesn't Porsche have better resale value?

Unless you buy a fairly rare enthusiast model, depreciation from new prices is indeed a huge problem (assuming you care about the money). One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that fixing these things is a huge headache. I'm not talking just about cost, but mostly about finding someone who would g...
by visualguy
Sun May 03, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16314

Re: American exceptionalism

I know it's beside your point, but I think the next "batch" of companies will certainly be tech. Everything that isn't tech but for which there is a market is already done. The only new markets are for things which don't exist yet, which means they require invention and development, which means the...
by visualguy
Sun May 03, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16314

Re: American exceptionalism

So rather than American exceptionalism it's Silicon Valley and Seattle exceptionalism. So buy VGT? That would be the conclusion to draw for those who believe in American exceptionalism and not diversifying. Not really because the point is that major new companies and industries will continue to eme...