Search found 899 matches

by visualguy
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4385

Re: Long term care insurance policy

WoW2012 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:17 pm
Wouldn't it have made more sense to just buy a half-way decent LTCi policy?
Possibly, but the devil is in the details.

I plan to look at these details when I reach 60 or so...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

PEs are all above average, but they are similarly valued relative to their 15 year histories. Each sector PE falls between 65% and 78% of that sector’s 15 year high. Right, but that's highly disturbing because even though these stock markets have gone almost nowhere over the last couple of decades,...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

I am not an economist, but are there any widely accepted theories of economics that support a significant US-overweight? I don't expect the "bet on historical winners" theory to get anyone a Nobel Prize anytime soon. You have to look at what's in the ex-US index. It's mostly Europe and Japan. We kn...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:48 pm
Typ997S wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:49 pm
At the other extreme, some argue that an international allocation is unnecessary.
Mr. Bogle was very frank in his reasoning to avoid foreign stocks.
He certainly knew what he was talking about on this one among many other things. Smart man.
by visualguy
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance policy
Replies: 140
Views: 4385

Re: Long term care insurance policy

Based on previous threads on this topic, it seems like if you have the assets to self-insure then that's a good way to go. If not, LTC insurance makes sense, but you need to do the research to find a good policy. Not that easy to find without a good agent who specializes in this area.
by visualguy
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 4572

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

Ex-US is mostly Europe and Japan. I don't hear Vanguard saying that they expect those to do well, or that China or India are going to suddenly have American-style economies and public markets, or anything like that.
by visualguy
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?
Replies: 81
Views: 5575

Re: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?

Voluntary early retirement basically means voluntarily rolling the dice on health care expenses, unless you are truly wealthy. You can't really plan safely for something which is so uncertain and can change so radically, which is what we're dealing with in the US, unfortunately. You just decide to t...
by visualguy
Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 4572

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

^ 20% would seem to be a happy middle-road between the 0% and 40% contenders It's middle ground, but I wouldn't call it "happy" because I can't imagine anyone being happy with this 20%, just not as unhappy as with 40%... Anyway, I think that 20% is neither here nor there. It's enough to piss you of...
by visualguy
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 5722

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

Yep I've been driving a boring little used Camry for just over a decade with nothing more than oil/tires/1 battery/1 hose replacements. One thing I admire about them is that they are still sticking to naturally-aspirated engines which tend to be more durable/reliable, while Honda and most others we...
by visualguy
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 5722

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

Vanguard investment experts presently recommend 40% of stock to international and 30% of bonds to international for a global strategy. I would not be surprised if the stocks move to a 50% U.S and 50% International at some point. I'd be more interested in learning how they invest their own money, no...
by visualguy
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?
Replies: 81
Views: 5575

Re: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?

Is there a description somewhere of these income management techniques that people keep talking about? Roughly speaking, if you're single and have $1M+ in taxable, or married with $1.3M+ in taxable, you already exceed the max income just with dividends/interest. Are we talking about people who are ...
by visualguy
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?
Replies: 81
Views: 5575

Re: How did you solve the pre-medicare healthcare riddle?

Is there a description somewhere of these income management techniques that people keep talking about? Roughly speaking, if you're single and have $1M+ in taxable, or married with $1.3M+ in taxable, you already exceed the max income just with dividends/interest. Are we talking about people who are b...
by visualguy
Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate at 38 years old
Replies: 95
Views: 7375

Re: Safe withdrawal rate at 38 years old

I’m looking at the possibility of selling my company for a large amount of money. My wife and I both own/operate it, so we would both be unemployed in this scenario. We would both find some other form of work, but likely at a much lower income level. For purposes of this question, I want to ignore ...
by visualguy
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we at "Peak FI"?
Replies: 93
Views: 9847

Re: Are we at "Peak FI"?

A couple of my observations: -Seems like the majority FIRE proponents/candidates I read about on the internet seem to be California tech types with monster salaries and stock grants. Take away these people and I think the amount of today's 20-30somethings who have a chance at FIRE before age 40-45 ...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 5722

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

In Europe, every capital city in NATO minus Istanbul and Riga as well as many other major cities, such as Barcelona, Manchester, Munich and about 20 others. In Asia, about a dozen or so geographically from Seoul to Singapore. Less travel in Asia as I was in Europe from 2007-2016 and only came to Ha...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14249

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

I have no international anything beyond the exposure that my US stocks provide. I am persuaded by Mr. Bogle's arguments in Common Sense on Mutual Funds. Also I recall Mohamed El-Erian remarking not long ago that the only economy with legs is the US economy. Every check that I have performed has sho...
by visualguy
Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?
Replies: 81
Views: 6237

Re: What do you think are (some of) the best states to live in?

Your "favorable climate" requirement pretty much limits you to California.
by visualguy
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15555

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Tamalak wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:34 am
International has now gone nowhere for two decades. What on earth are they even doing over there? :oops:
Maybe they have other achievements? Stock market returns aren't the only metric of progress...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15555

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I have total,return data for the three Vanguard regional international equity funds only for the last 28 years (1991-2018) and it doesn’t bolster your case. For that 28 year period the S&P 500 had an annualized return of 9.8% with an SD of 17.2. The Vanguard European Fund returned 7.0% with an SD o...
by visualguy
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4360

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

...In any event we are often told that in the long-run US stock returns will average about 7% per year real. In the long-run of the last 20 years stock returns have been about half that. Stock market investing is inherently risky whether for the short-term or the long-term. That risk can show up an...
by visualguy
Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 714
Views: 92054

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

base on 3% withdraw rule, or 3% dividend i expected. My budget is 100k/year I would need 3.3 mil for safe retire. What happens with long-term care? Would you rely on some kind of insurance for that? For example, say your spouse needs to go into a facility, and you still live independently. Suddenly...
by visualguy
Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1781856

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:28 pm
I think this is just Apple problem. My husband and I have iPhone for nearly 5 years. No upgrade necessary. It might last us another 5 years. Who knows?
It seems pretty common for people to replace their phone when the battery stops holding charge well.
by visualguy
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-Term “Buy & Hold” Crushed Stockholders in Largest Markets Except US & India (article)
Replies: 7
Views: 570

Re: Long-Term “Buy & Hold” Crushed Stockholders in Largest Markets Except US & India (article)

I am naturally a buy and hold investor, and my question/observation is: if one cannot rely on buy and hold to work in the long haul even when extended to the entire world market cap for entire decades, what can a typical investor do? Just succumb to the idea that they’ll eventually lose all their m...
by visualguy
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone allocating more into International funds this year?
Replies: 28
Views: 1644

Re: Anyone allocating more into International funds this year?

Sticking with 0% international. Not an investable asset class based on long-term performance over the last few decades.
by visualguy
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?
Replies: 12
Views: 1123

Re: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?

Kenkat wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:40 pm
International is kind of like a town that’s been bombed; maybe it’s safer because there’s not so much left to bomb, but you’re still living in a bombed out town.
That is an excellent analogy, unfortunately...
by visualguy
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?
Replies: 16
Views: 2126

Re: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?

I have yet to find any investor who lost money in a total stock market index fund or S&P 500 index fund if they held onto it long-term, and I doubt the future will be any different than the past. It did happen in other countries, and could happen in the US as well in the future. Both things are tru...
by visualguy
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?
Replies: 16
Views: 2126

Re: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?

Dude2 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:32 pm
Queue all the threads telling us that stocks are no safer longer term than they are shorter term.
"Safer" isn't the same as "safe". They may be safer long term than short term, but they aren't safe.
by visualguy
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?
Replies: 16
Views: 2126

Re: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?

Rick Ferri wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:23 pm
I have yet to find any investor who lost money in a total stock market index fund or S&P 500 index fund if they held onto it long-term, and I doubt the future will be any different than the past.
It did happen in other countries, and could happen in the US as well in the future.
by visualguy
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run
Replies: 27
Views: 3045

Re: What are some non-doomsday scenarios where buy and hold index fund equities fails in the long run

All Seasons wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:43 pm
Japan.
Indeed, this strategy failed in a few countries, and it's not impossible that it would fail in the US (or the global stock index for that matter) as well. This is one of the motivations for diversifying into other things such as rental properties.
by visualguy
Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 190
Views: 14488

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

More of a generic you as I wouldn't want to guess at your specific knowledge:). The issue with health insurance is at a high level nobody really wants to be the ones doing the subsidizing until they develop health problems. And none of this has anything to do with health insurance companies being e...
by visualguy
Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 190
Views: 14488

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

The advent of electronic medical records has made it almost impossible to escape the dragnet of “preexisting conditions.” EMR came in widespread use in the mid 2000s during the last few years of the Bush administration. Prior to this, paper charts were what we used. Paper charts were easily lost or...
by visualguy
Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 190
Views: 14488

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

The advantage of Employer health plans to the insurer is that the pool is not* selected based on desire and need for access to insurance. Affiliated plans that are not selective in who can join (and not join) or that allow the affiliates to opt in or out of insurance will find that people who sign ...
by visualguy
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 190
Views: 14488

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

good, hope my state goes back to a low risk pool where premiums were much lower. ACA did away with that and premiums skyrocketed. That works only until you get seriously sick, so it pretty much defeats the main reason for the insurance. Once you have to be moved from a "low-risk" pool to a "high-ri...
by visualguy
Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 190
Views: 14488

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

good, hope my state goes back to a low risk pool where premiums were much lower. ACA did away with that and premiums skyrocketed. That works only until you get seriously sick, so it pretty much defeats the main reason for the insurance. Once you have to be moved from a "low-risk" pool to a "high-ri...
by visualguy
Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court
Replies: 190
Views: 14488

Re: Obamacare (ACA) Ruled Unconstitutional by Texas Federal Court

If you are responsible and are continuously covered by health insurance, as you should be, what is the concern about preexisting conditions? Can someone please explain? This is a good question. My guess is that confusion would ensue as this gets answered. . . perhaps 50 times. But plans are renewed...
by visualguy
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

interesting how some bogleheads are incapable of selecting stocks while capable of selecting stock markets. And how many are capable of predicting future returns of equity markets and overweighting them for "juiced up returns" while reducing global market weight balances of bonds, cash, commodities...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

International stocks have provided double the returns of US stocks over periods as short as three years in the past, multiple times. Yeah, but those temporary blips didn't add up to much in the longer run. Ex-US out-performed quite a bit during the decade after I bailed out on it, but it still woul...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Everything is priced in. Say it together with me now, everything is priced in. The Communist party controls the operations of the largest Chinese companies? Sure, but guess what, that’s priced in. Also there is a difference between control rights and cash flow rights. And if your shares only repres...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Everything is priced in. Say it together with me now, everything is priced in. The Communist party controls the operations of the largest Chinese companies? Sure, but guess what, that’s priced in. Also there is a difference between control rights and cash flow rights. And if your shares only repres...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Still, nobody--not one person here on this board--is truly, purely diversified across all investable assets worldwide. Not one. So each and every person must choose which asset classes, and which asset subclasses, in which to invest. All we have is past performance on which to base some decisions, ...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 25, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14249

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

0% international. It was around 25% in the mid-to-late 90s, but then I bailed out on it. Haven't touched it since, but I keep monitoring it. Somewhat surprised by how poorly it has done - didn't think it would do quite so badly in the long run. Definitely made me listen to Bogle more...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 25, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I held 50% international (EAFE, large value, small company, FTSE all-cap) for 23 years and consider it almost totally useless for any purpose other than reducing portfolio returns. With the same rearview mirror, I look at Total US market the same way. I should have held US Micro Cap or US Small Cap...
by visualguy
Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I've had between 45% and 51% foreign stocks since 1995. That ended today. I've come to agree with some others that foreign, considering various arguments, is unnecessary if not harmful. Well, it has been very harmful to my portfolio performance, compared to US. So, I've exchanged all of my foreign ...
by visualguy
Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... I wonder how "uncorrelated" international equities are compared to domestic equities? From what I can gather, "highly correlated" would be an apt description. Perhaps, if diversification is the goal, another type of truly uncorrelated asset should be added to a portfolio of domestic equities be...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

It is not tone when it's explicitly stated, repeatedly and with religious fervor. I seriously don't understand why the "must own international" crowd is so adamant that they are right and hold the only "truth" in this discussion. Those of us on the other side are honest enough to admit we don't kno...
by visualguy
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I read these discussions and wonder why some seem to be so...religious ;) about the issue. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing: it’s pretty darn easy tobput half your equities in TSM and the other half in a global cap fund like VT. That puts one at about 25% international. That’s the Goldilocks zo...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 100612

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

What percentage were Vanguard putting in ex-US before they switched to 40%, and when did they make the change?
by visualguy
Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15555

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

This argument makes no sense because the ex US index out performed the 20 years prior to 30 years ago. Clearly things can change over these periods because they already did. Back then you had Japan. The growth in Japan and the huge stock market bubble they had made that happen. Now we have China an...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 222
Views: 29613

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

It's even more than that, the station in life you are at in your 50s holds you from taking the same risks. That may vary. It really depends on your specific situation. You may actually have a lot of freedom in your 50s. The issue is that you aren't the same person you were in your 20s in so many wa...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15555

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

It's a bet either way. You're either betting that things will remain the same as the last few decades over the time period that's relevant to you (in which case US-only makes more sense), or you're betting that things will change (world market cap will be better). Such change will be slow if it hap...