Search found 1590 matches

by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

In regards to the post, just above: you can make a case against travel if you live anywhere in the USA, really. Warren Buffett points out that most upper middle class Americans live better than Kong’s of 120 years ago. Central heat and A/C, electricity, running water and sewerage, internet, big scr...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

While I take your statements as your genuine beliefs, my first reaction was that you were trolling. I accept that it's just that our views on this are very, very different. I have lived in an area of notable natural beauty for almost a decade, and still don't tire of it. Almost daily I am tickled b...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

We see traveling a little differently. We have no problem going to the same location multiple times and even be thrilled to just rent a place for a few weeks and live there more like a local as opposed to a tourist. For us it is not just about showing up to a place and checking it off our list (not...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

We see traveling a little differently. We have no problem going to the same location multiple times and even be thrilled to just rent a place for a few weeks and live there more like a local as opposed to a tourist. For us it is not just about showing up to a place and checking it off our list (not...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

I do enjoy my career, but it is only a means to an end. My work, while giving me significant time off, greatly limits our ability to travel during much of the year. Considering that our desired spending is only around half of our current income, an early retirement (age 53-55) is very much within o...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Indeed, I don't consider costs associated with living in a particular location to be discretionary, and something that I would be willing to cut if my portfolio performs poorly. I'd much rather work longer, save more, and use a lower WR to avoid potentially having to do this. Moving is seriously li...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Indeed, I don't consider costs associated with living in a particular location to be discretionary, and something that I would be willing to cut if my portfolio performs poorly. I'd much rather work longer, save more, and use a lower WR to avoid potentially having to do this. Moving is seriously li...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

There’s a thing going on here that someone touched upon, that I think for a large number of Bogleheads is the case: many of us don’t like the idea of a long grind down in nest egg value. The hypothesis is that 4% will SURVIVE a 30 year retirement. But the concern is to not merely survive. Lower wit...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

There’s a thing going on here that someone touched upon, that I think for a large number of Bogleheads is the case: many of us don’t like the idea of a long grind down in nest egg value. The hypothesis is that 4% will SURVIVE a 30 year retirement. But the concern is to not merely survive. Lower wit...
by visualguy
Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Indeed, I don't consider costs associated with living in a particular location to be discretionary, and something that I would be willing to cut if my portfolio performs poorly. I'd much rather work longer, save more, and use a lower WR to avoid potentially having to do this. Moving is seriously lif...
by visualguy
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire or work again?
Replies: 23
Views: 2828

Re: Retire or work again?

My dentist has been independently wealthy for years now thanks to a large inheritance. He still has a practice that he owns, and he still practices, but only part time. He does things at a leisurely pace, and always seems mellow, relaxed, and not pressed for time. Doesn't push overly aggressive and ...
by visualguy
Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

For whatever it's worth - my wife and I will retire in our mid 50s and plan on a 4% withdrawal rate ***BUT*** we plan on using not the Trinity study method of withdrawals but a constant % of current portfolio. 4% will allow us to upgrade our lifestyle with discretionary spending that will be approx...
by visualguy
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Keeping your expenses as low as possible will help you fluctuate your withdrawal rate between a range that you feel comfortable with. Where you might run into some trouble is if your expenses dictate what your withdrawal rate needs to be. During a market correction, it is best to be in a place wher...
by visualguy
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Perhaps, but the original problem is "What is the maximum constant withdrawal I can make for N years, given an initial portfolio ?". That question is a rather natural and relevant one. You shifting the goalposts again, but I would argue that the question is largely irrelevant because virtually no o...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

There have been numerous studies of SWR in various countries as well as globally invested, as well as numerous discussion on this forum about them. US results are near the top. Almost all the countries with low SWR are limited by years where the country was bombed to near oblivion. To elaborate on ...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

It strikes me as perfectly reasonable to plan for a legacy while planning one's retirement. Even independent and resourceful children (and adults) can make mistakes or encounter bad luck and need help (financial or otherwise). How much one plans to leave us ultimately up to the individual but just ...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

marcopolo wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:10 pm
I agree that it is difficult to know what your expenses will be in the future. Build in a nice buffer.
Absolutely, but that's largely the same as planning for a lower WR.
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

World wars don't explain the last 50 years, for example. I would be concerned about potential future policy changes in the US that would make stock market performance more similar to what we've seen elsewhere. Not saying it's a high probability necessarily, but definitely not something that can be ...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

If you aren’t okay looking at a constantly declining balance, a % WR of any rate will not be a good thing for you. I know it wouldn’t be for me or most rational beings. You should also look at passive income sources to add to your portfolio as well so as not to be hammered by the draw down. -TheDDC...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 265
Views: 17117

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

If you aren’t okay looking at a constantly declining balance, a % WR of any rate will not be a good thing for you. I know it wouldn’t be for me or most rational beings. You should also look at passive income sources to add to your portfolio as well so as not to be hammered by the draw down. -TheDDC...
by visualguy
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs In State municipal bond fund
Replies: 8
Views: 769

Re: Total Bond vs In State municipal bond fund

The yields you are talking about are so low it should be the least of your concerns. What is more important is how the value of your invested money is going to fare? The risk here is that interest rates inch higher and the price of your fund heads lower - possibly significantly lower. Long term rat...
by visualguy
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Working from home vs in the office
Replies: 22
Views: 1831

Re: Working from home vs in the office

One thing to keep in mind is that after working largely from home for a long time, it's extremely hard to adjust to working from an office again. Working from home is particularly good for pre-retirement jobs where you aren't looking to be promoted, and are more likely to retire as a next step rathe...
by visualguy
Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 153
Views: 12443

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

pennywise,

The view and approach you present make sense for someone in, say, their 60s, but not really at 42/40 when more than half their life, and most of their adult life, is still (most likely) ahead of them.
by visualguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can one own a Porsche 911 that is not a money pit?
Replies: 78
Views: 10034

Re: Can one own a Porsche 911 that is not a money pit?

Scotty Kilmer's suggestion (youtube guy with 51 or 52 years of experience fixing cars) was if you really must do this - buy this money pit - then to lease a new one to "get it out of your system" and then you can give it away back to the dealer before the warranty runs out. And then hopefully by th...
by visualguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 153
Views: 12443

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

The real risk to your financial health, and I’m completely serious, is that your wife will get tired of living like a pauper in a one bedroom rental while you have 4 million in assets, and decide to divorce you and live a carefree life with 2 or more million to spend while she’s young. That could h...
by visualguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 153
Views: 12443

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

The only things that make little sense to me in OP's post are the concern about not being able to save the extra $135K-$175K with a portfolio of well over $4M, and the fatalism about dropping out of his career so early. Not feeling comfortable with retiring at 42/40 with this nest egg is not all tha...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can one own a Porsche 911 that is not a money pit?
Replies: 78
Views: 10034

Re: Can one own a Porsche 911 that is not a money pit?

I have one word for you: Miata. Fun to drive, reasonably inexpensive, and you can park it in public without having to go back to check on it every five minutes. I can't remember the last time I saw a 911 parked in public. There are many 911s in my area, but they tend to be point A-to-point A cars o...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 153
Views: 12443

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

Why do you think you have to leave the working life at 42? Layoffs are common, and people bounce back typically. We aren't in a depression or even a recession... If in reality the problem is that you don't want to keep working, that's a different story, but if you do, not sure what would prevent yo...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 153
Views: 12443

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

So, what is really driving this question? Not long ago you started a thread ( https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=292873&p=4798664#p4798664 ) about your fear of quitting, maybe the layoff is really a blessing so you don't have to fret over quitting. I'm scared. I'm afraid of failur...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 153
Views: 12443

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

At your age, just focus on finding another job if you lose your current job. Don't obsess about whether you have enough to last you for the rest of your life and your wife's life (which could be 50+ years). You should be able to find another job. You definitely have enough not to stress too much abo...
by visualguy
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 690
Views: 69763

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Many here own rental properties in addition to their Boglehead portfolio, as can be seen when people post about their assets and income streams for retirement. It's good diversification. However, it's not the focus of the forum, so this isn't really the place to look for good discussions on this top...
by visualguy
Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11731

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

It seems silly to not invest in a country that provides so much of the World goods. Sure, if their stock market was an effective way to invest in their economy, but it isn't, unfortunately. Their average annual GDP growth rate over the last decade has been over 7% (slowing a bit now to 6%), while t...
by visualguy
Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring and Getting Over The Fear of Quitting?
Replies: 84
Views: 9771

Re: Retiring and Getting Over The Fear of Quitting?

You really have to be honest with yourself when calculating your expected expenses (healthcare included). It won't be 100% accurate but with most things in life, you prepare the best you can and then pull the trigger. The problem is that you can't be anywhere near accurate, particularly for a long ...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment
Replies: 44
Views: 4046

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment

“Right, but that wouldn't keep up with inflation.“ There is little or no inflation. That is why interest rates are minimal to non existent. There could well be deflation in which case you make money by not investing. If inflation comes back, interest rates will rise and you can just put your money ...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment
Replies: 44
Views: 4046

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment

RAchip wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:41 pm
“My guess - and that's all it is - is that in 20 or 30 years Bogleheads will have settled somewhere in the 2-3% range.“

2%? If you put your money in a safe and take out 2% of the initial balance per year your money will last 50 years.
Right, but that wouldn't keep up with inflation.
by visualguy
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring and Getting Over The Fear of Quitting?
Replies: 84
Views: 9771

Re: Retiring and Getting Over The Fear of Quitting?

I still remember the day in 2006 when I decided to retire. I came to the realization that I did not know how many days I had left, and that I was selling them to the company for less than they were worth to me. .... This x 10 . As you get older your time becomes far more valuable than money. Someti...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Whatever factors you think make it “special” now have made it equally “special” for the past 50 or 60 years, a period of time over which US equity returns have been effectively identical to ex-US returns and the diversification benefits of a globally diversified portfolio have been unambiguous. US ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

[Comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] The American economic system is indeed exceptional, despite its flaws. However it doesn't stop me from investing 25% of my equity portfolio in ex-US. I don't know enough to entirely contradict the prevailing wisdom. So I split the difference (a little m...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Every empire has had it's day in the sun. The Greeks, the Romans, the Mongols, the Moghuls, the British, and now the US. Do we really believe this will continue forever? "Forever" is irrelevant. Even the sun won't last forever. The question is what will happen during our investment time horizon, wh...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

New companies might enrich venture investors, but I doubt they help stock index investors much. Huh? Amazon, Facebook, Google, Salesforce, Netflix, Nvidia, etc. didn't help stock index investors much? These are all companies that went public over the last 20 years or so. Meanwhile, what has been go...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Of course I expected these comments from some people who thinks US no more exceptional than Somalia. Okay, go ahead and invest half of your equities in South Africa or Denmark. I will bet along with Buffett and Bogle who knew the value of American exceptionalism. Which are better, US companies or G...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Most countries have their own stories about how they're exceptional and wonderful and just the best country in the world--but in most cases that story ran into reality somehow or another and they stopped talking about it so much. There's no reason to suppose that the United States is special in thi...
by visualguy
Sat Oct 12, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12187

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

DaufuskieNate wrote:
Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:28 am
David Althaus wrote:
Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:18 am
No value in making a 100 year wager but mine would be the US will outperform the rest of the world.
I wouldn’t bet against China.
Right, but China isn't sharing its bounty much with us stock market index investors, and ex-US is mostly Europe and Japan.
by visualguy
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19734

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Whenever people look at future return scenarios, the consensus seems to be that future returns will be lower. I have yet to see lots of predictions that it will be higher. My question is, why? have a look at that picture I posted up above. People are expecting future returns to be lower because of ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19734

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

What you are describing is a rational reaction to a zombie market (a term I just read today). I think that we are really discussing a sideways decade, not a sideways lifetime. To a certain extent, I can believe that the long slide of interest rates will cast a longer pall on things. For those that ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3566

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

This is the correct answer. For myself, my international allocation of equities is also 0% - in full alignment with both John Bogle and Warren Buffett. 0% for me too - both of equities and the total portfolio :happy The only person in my family (or even extended family) who has ex-US is my dad who ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3566

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

I’m 25% equity. I am 20% of stocks. That works out to 12% of my overall 60/40 portfolio. I find the international to be a drag on my portfolio, so I don't want to increase it. That's how you know it is working. If everything performs the same, or if everything is up at once, that is when you don't ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3566

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

False comments above. Bogle recommend 0% international...... but was ok with someone going up to 20%. Watch https://youtu.be/P54trh0Rre8 This is the correct answer. For myself, my international allocation of equities is also 0% - in full alignment with both John Bogle and Warren Buffett. 0% for me ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19734

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Why risk your life savings for 1%? In many cases, people have no choice and are hoping for something better than 1%. And 1% real is better than 0% or negative real returns. If I knew it was going to be just 1% real for the stock market, I would invest more in rental real estate. None of us really k...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3566

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

False comments above. Bogle recommend 0% international...... but was ok with someone going up to 20%. Watch https://youtu.be/P54trh0Rre8 This is the correct answer. For myself, my international allocation of equities is also 0% - in full alignment with both John Bogle and Warren Buffett. 0% for me ...