Search found 1361 matches

by visualguy
Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of buying a Bay Area home with 4-year time horizon?
Replies: 7
Views: 477

Re: Risks of buying a Bay Area home with 4-year time horizon?

Depreciating prices over the next 4 years may be possible, but very unlikely. Unless there's serious economic trouble, it's hard to imagine prices being lower in 4 years than they are now in San Jose. Still, I personally would probably not bother with buying/selling for just 4 years since prices don...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)
Replies: 188
Views: 38858

Re: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)

once you start de-cumulating then sequence is a huge piece of the story Historically, sequence of returns has been a problem for high withdrawal rates, but not for the normal SWRs that people talk about here... Maybe the future will be different, but the big concern with sequence of returns has alw...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 143
Views: 29441

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

Ok so in your case it doesn’t seem like this money has helped you. You seem restless, unhappy and constantly focused on what you should be doing. The challenges you’re facing seem more emotional than about personal finances or investing. I’d suggest you see a therapist. Personally I think you need ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

As I ponder these issues, I've been seeking out books at the library on the subject of solo aging. I ended up buying this one: "Essential Retirement Planning for Solo Agers: A Retirement and Aging Roadmap for Single and Childless Adults." One point the author makes right up front is that singles ar...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think i can spend 30k on this vacation, but wife not sure
Replies: 77
Views: 6863

Re: I think i can spend 30k on this vacation, but wife not sure

I don’t think I have ever spent more than $5000 on a trip and I have a higher income. It may be a psychological barrier. I also would only want to fly there business class though. It's typically at least $7K per ticket for business class to go there, so at least $14K for a couple just for the fligh...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

I know plenty of cases in which "trusted relatives" were not so trustworthy. There are relatives that use this granted power to do selfish things that are not in the person's best interests. There are some that outright steal from their relatives. I know someone who did this to his father. We've al...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with bank or other corporate Trust Department?
Replies: 45
Views: 3150

Re: Experience with bank or other corporate Trust Department?

Still, the POA/TP has ultimate power. Have you figured out who that would be? Is it a relative, or did you find someone you can hire to do this? Sorry, I don't have a suggestion on how to do this well without close family. Yes, the POA/TP has ultimate power, but there is at least some check/balance...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think i can spend 30k on this vacation, but wife not sure
Replies: 77
Views: 6863

Re: I think i can spend 30k on this vacation, but wife not sure

Thanks to all. I suppose expenses for college could be 300-400k for kids, and that means less net worth. I plan on paying that no matter what. It seems like most say I can afford this trip, but some are skeptical. I guess my expenses could be 150k in retirement, so I would need 6-7.5 M. Seems like ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with bank or other corporate Trust Department?
Replies: 45
Views: 3150

Re: Experience with bank or other corporate Trust Department?

Never had experience with Schwab as trustee but plenty of experience with many other trust institutions. In general a corporate trustee offers what no individual can including perpetual existence, collective experience and judgment, financial responsibility, accessibility because doesn’t die or go ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with bank or other corporate Trust Department?
Replies: 45
Views: 3150

Re: Experience with bank or other corporate Trust Department?

Never had experience with Schwab as trustee but plenty of experience with many other trust institutions. In general a corporate trustee offers what no individual can including perpetual existence, collective experience and judgment, financial responsibility, accessibility because doesn’t die or go ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

Sounds like could be an opening for some entrepeneur to start such a service. How many people are out there like that with this need? I don't know the statistics, but it doesn't seem to be a common problem to have no one because you don't hear much about it. Anecdotally, I haven't encountered anyon...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

The very notion that any American household needs a minimum of $5 million to retire before age 65 is beyond ludicrous, even for those with a low risk tolerance. $5M lets you put aside $1M for LTC and other disasters, and spend $120K/yr at 3% from the other $4M. Doesn't seem all that ludicrous in an...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

If you are the sort of person whose ego is married to their corporate identity, then maybe there is some psychological benefit. If you are the type of person who started your own business and it is your baby, I can also understand that. Many small-business owners I know simply don't stop working - ...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Retiring earlier doesn't mean living longer, so not sure why you're making the comparison to getting more years of life. I think the best scenario is reaching a balance where you work (doing something that you're ok with overall), continue to make money, and have a decent amount of time for leisure...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Hmm, I just read about Arne Sorensen, CEO of Marriott, who got diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Reminded me of Steve Jobs. We are dying every day. I think it's silly to want/need an insanely huge amount of money before you are ready to enjoy life. My goals are very simple. I value my time much mor...
by visualguy
Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

The very notion that any American household needs a minimum of $5 million to retire before age 65 is beyond ludicrous, even for those with a low risk tolerance. $5M lets you put aside $1M for LTC and other disasters, and spend $120K/yr at 3% from the other $4M. Doesn't seem all that ludicrous in an...
by visualguy
Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total US vs. Total International
Replies: 9
Views: 1187

Re: Total US vs. Total International

How to explain this kind performance disparity? Currency fluctuations make it hard to see the exact picture. The effects of currency valuations are one of the problems that I and others have with this asset class. Ex-US out-performance (when valued in USD) tends to appear during periods of weakness...
by visualguy
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

Maybe "Blissful Ignorance" is the answer! ;) It truly is... If I can't do anything much about something, I find that it's best to distract myself with other things, and not think about it or study it much. This is one of the reasons I'm afraid of retirement - too much time to obsess about these thi...
by visualguy
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

I am getting depressed just reading all this! :oops: :? Yeah, that's the problem with digging into these things... Blissful ignorance or being in denial truly is a better way with some things unless there's something you can actually do to put your future on a different path. The younger you are, t...
by visualguy
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

Charon, To be fair, people were giving that advice because OP said they had relatives, just preferred not to move close to them because of climate concerns. Regardless of whether it becomes more common or not to end up with no caring relatives, it's an intractable situation for those who are in bad ...
by visualguy
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirees, did your level of luxury increase faster than you anticipated?
Replies: 47
Views: 4849

Re: Retirees, did your level of luxury increase faster than you anticipated?

There's something desirable about gradually ramping up. What was fine for the younger years resulted in a usually-not-so-bad-but-usually-different experience. There's not anything favorable to say about coach other than it gets one "there", is cheapest, and it makes one appreciate premium economy e...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 184
Views: 17916

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

The problem is that the US economy has grown only an average of 2.3% a year since the current expansion began in 6/2009. The average growth rate of the 10 previous economic expansions since WWII was 4.3%, which is almost double. In other words, we don't have the economic growth needed to justify goo...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

While I don't have any hard facts to back this up, I'm operating under the assumption that there are a lot more childless adults now than there were in previous generations, so therefore this is a relatively new problem. Yes and no... There is a higher percentage of childless women today than a few...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

This is a very difficult subject. I think it's one of those facts of life that just as you need to prepare yourself financially for old age when you're young, you also need to navigate your life in a way where you would have someone close and trusted who will be able and willing to help later on if...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

This is a very difficult subject. I think it's one of those facts of life that just as you need to prepare yourself financially for old age when you're young, you also need to navigate your life in a way where you would have someone close and trusted who will be able and willing to help later on if...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

If someone has no trusted relatives or friends and declining mental capacity, what can they do about medical care, other important decisions and making sure finances are handled honestly? Assume that such person has substantial assets. If there was a clear answer in this thread, I've missed it. The...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

I'm assuming university supervision of the community, enough so unethical behavior would be prevented, or at least noticed and corrected very quickly. I would assume that all large ALFs hire people they believe to be honest. Screening processes and accounting controls don't always work. There's a d...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

Yes, taking care of the person is the most difficult. Presumably the agent under the power of attorney, the guardian, or the trustee if a bank, would hire people to do this. I'm a little confused about your last statement regarding a trustee. I wouldn't have imagined that a trustee for someone's as...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

There are professional guardians and/or conservators that can either be hired by an individual or appointed by the Court to manage the financial and life affairs of someone. Your local or state Senior Services agency may be able to direct you to them. Dangerous territory - the kind of thing you wan...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

SSI is not going to go broke, at the most there will be some tweaking around the edges to make it sustainable when the ruling class is forced to make the changes. Regarding this point, I believe that a lot of folks have talked past each other regarding the future state of SS. Those that say that SS...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Thoughts of divorce by me (ohai): 1) How can 50% of marriages end in divorce? Are 50% of people you know divorced? I bet the number is driven higher by some serial divorcers. Trump is on marriage 3, for instance. 2) Where finances are concerned, there is probably an optimal wealth point that makes ...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 1928

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Also, when this discussion comes up I always do have to point out that overall US productivity is not growing that fast right now. Everybody talks about automation, but it actually isn't progressing near as fast as it has historically. Is that because low interest rates (cheap capital) is keeping u...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

It was an online survey of 401k participants (does not appear that it was limited to Schwab account holders). Thanks for the links. The four points I thought interesting when linked together were (i) "on average, participants think they need $1.7 million saved for retirement", (ii) that 58% said th...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)
Replies: 22
Views: 1928

Re: Demographics are Not Destiny (due to Automation)

Or you can have the caregiver operate the robot remotely until the AI is advanced-enough (to let you know you're dying in this example :oops:):

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47510038
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16275

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

keep posting stuff like that and you might actually explode someone's brain. i feel like its taken as a given these days that US outperforms because it just does. As I pointed out in another thread, this study is misleading because it ignores the fact that these 3 portfolios would have a different ...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]
Replies: 72
Views: 5299

Re: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]

The problem with this study is that it starts with the same initial withdrawal balance ($100K) for all portfolios, thus ignoring what happened during the accumulation period where the different portfolios would have resulted in different final accumulation balances/initial withdrawal balances. That...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]
Replies: 72
Views: 5299

Re: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]

The problem with this study is that it starts with the same initial withdrawal balance ($100K) for all portfolios, thus ignoring what happened during the accumulation period where the different portfolios would have resulted in different final accumulation balances/initial withdrawal balances.
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

Depending on state laws, you may find yourselves being taken care of by a Senior/Professional Guardian . Florida and Nevada have recently put some restraints on their guardian systems, but unfortunately Senior Guardians can be very lucrative for local governments. Original 2017 New Yorker story . "...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.
Replies: 139
Views: 10181

Re: If there are no close or trusted relatives close by, who will care for you, pay your bills, etc.

Nursing homes and Ccrcs can be s great answer. It still requires a loved one to manage the caregivers and the CCRV management as well as Doctors , etc. There is no substitute for a loving relative to oversee your care, in my simple opinion. Yes, it's critical to have a loving relative who is health...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

What's the magic number for retirement savings? $1.7 million, according to a survey from Charles Schwab. How many of here are retired, or thinking of retiring, near this #? Assuming no pension and excluding paid for main residences in the numbers. My target is significantly much higher than $1.7 mi...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 26901

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

$1.7M per individual or per couple? Includes home value? With or without pension? Yes and also are we talking 65+ (Medicare eligible) or earlier and having to worry about other health insurance? These numbers are essentially meaningless because the details of the particular circumstances make such ...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16275

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

Many have a hard time investing in markets where (1) they don't know what many of the risks are, (2) they have a hard time estimating whether those risks will manifest themselves, (3) many of the nations have poor reporting standards, (4) currency risk exists and is completely uncompensated, (5) th...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Million Dollar Car
Replies: 25
Views: 2632

Re: The Three Million Dollar Car

Where can I get 8.5% before inflation over 40 years? Yeah, that's what I want to know too! The last time the SP 500/US Stock Market didn’t earn 8.5% over a 40 year period was the 40 years ending 1951 where it earned 8.47%. Although in fairness the 40 year periods ending in 1950 and before rarely ea...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Million Dollar Car
Replies: 25
Views: 2632

Re: The Three Million Dollar Car

snackdog wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:36 pm
Where can I get 8.5% before inflation over 40 years?
Yeah, that's what I want to know too!
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Elderly grandparents moving in with parents; what should they plan for?
Replies: 63
Views: 4806

Re: Elderly grandparents moving in with parents; what should they plan for?

Wiki material potentially,some heavy stuff this is. Heavy indeed. One of those facts of life that that you don't want to think about because you get so depressed. I was able not to let it get to me with grandparents, but when it happened to my parents, it hit me pretty hard. We decided to put mom (...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Million Dollar Car
Replies: 25
Views: 2632

Re: The Three Million Dollar Car

I find such analogies are of little value - we could always say a steak costs a whole bunch compared to ramen noodles, or any car is more expensive than a motorcycle or the city bus. Certainly the ROI on a newspaper is very low, as news is free on the internet. We could go on and on. Yes, it's all ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16275

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

I would love ex-US if China and India had US-style economies where I could actually participate as an index investor, but they don't. Don't forget that domestic companies in emerging markets are not the only ones generating revenues in those countries, including China and India. Index companies in ...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16275

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

since China only represents 3.1% of VTWAX, it's probably not worth sweating over anyway. That's exactly the problem. You have the second largest economy in the world (already the largest at purchasing power parity), but it's only a tiny percentage of the index, so what are you actually investing in...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16275

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

True, but the rising economic powers (China, India) have economic systems where you can't really tap effectively into their success by indexing their stock markets, so I don't know how indexing ex-US helps in reality. I agree, this has largely been the state of affairs, when it comes to emerging ma...
by visualguy
Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16275

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

This is not to say the United States will not still be a world power for decades to come, but just that global hegemony and economic dominance is not a permanent state of affairs in the world — and never has been. True, but the rising economic powers (China, India) have economic systems where you c...