Search found 311 matches

by visualguy
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

Good choice - the BMW 5-series multi-contour seats are definitely among the best in terms of comfort. Not that great in terms of holding you well when taking corners fast, but comfort is more important in any car that isn't a track car, and this is not a track car. I don't like the aggressive bolste...
by visualguy
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

Good seats are expensive, so cost cutting is common there. The least expensive sedan that I know with comfortable seats is the Acura TLX.
by visualguy
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

In my view, the biggest international development is the rise of China as a major world power. The effects of that can be profound. Even just from an economy size perspective, China is expected to surpass the US by 2030. By 2050, the US is expected to be #3 behind China and India. It will most likel...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5515

Re: Help me understand what happen with the new law and ACA subsidies

The exact effects are hard to predict. I don't think anyone here can tell how the insurance companies will react exactly. If the subsidies are cut, the insurance companies will have to compensate for this somehow. The only actionable thing I can think of is to plan to allocate even more money for he...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I'll never understand this kind of argument. You don't use that logic for individual stocks or sectors, so why countries? We don't say 'well healthcare has done well and utilities poorly over the last 50 or 100 years so you should tilt toward one over the other.' Makes no sense for a passive invest...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Ex-US indexing hasn't worked well in the past - under-performance over long periods of time as mentioned above in this thread. It's possible to argue about the reasons and whether the next century will be like the last century, but the reality so far is what it is, and it's a huge red flag. So shou...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6219

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

Some may say "keep a low profile", hogwash, make yourself known to colleagues and management alike - some call that networking, others call it being a "team player". Sometimes you need to be careful with this... Getting on the radar screen with management can sometimes lead to extra scrutiny and be...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Always perplexed by how many Bogleheads insist on not picking single stocks to simply take what the market will bear. Yet have no issue holding a US only or US dominant portfolio that's so far out of line with global market proportions. Mr. Bogle himself (or even Warren Buffet for that matter) like...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

The Accord beats the Camry with infotainment: Apple Carplay and Android Auto. Probably no need to get Navi. Yes, but I wish Honda didn't omit the bird's view parking cameras. I use that pretty much every time I park - very useful. I don't know why they included pretty much everything you can think ...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Growing old without kids or younger caring relatives
Replies: 103
Views: 17872

Re: Growing old without kids or younger caring relatives

Truly depressing to think about this, and very easy to be in denial. If I remember correctly, about 15% of people never have children in the US, so this is a fairly common problem.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

The index is in theory the average, it is the total stock market. So if the average active fund beats the index, you are providing more than the entire stock-markets growth, in growth. Fees aside, the average active fund should match the indexes (but of course, there are winners and losers). With p...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4068

Re: Offensive Valuations

4. What is the alternative? 2% yielding bonds? But if not stocks then what? This is the $1000 question(s) When I ask friends and family about that, they say rental real estate for taxable investments... It does seem to work for them. I'm in both stock and real estate, and I'm certainly more worried...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

FIREchief wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:32 pm
visualguy wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:24 pm

Some say go active... Evidently, in Europe even the average active fund beats the index:
How is that possible mathematically?
Why wouldn't it be possible mathematically?
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Not sure about that... Historically, when the markets in the US catch a cold, international markets catch pneumonia... The US did worse than international markets in 1907, 1929, 1958, 1969, 1973 and 1987. I guess you could restate your claim to "sometimes when the US catches a cold, international c...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

inittowinit wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:22 pm
I market weight so am already 50/50 and will stay the course.

Int'l exposure helps me weather all this angst about US valuations.

Cheers to diversification :sharebeer
Not sure about that... Historically, when the markets in the US catch a cold, international markets catch pneumonia...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I haven't completely given up on international. I own shares in VIGI, the international dividend appreciation fund by Vanguard released last year. It should weed out the low quality companies. I saw it mentioned when it was released. Looked interesting, but the international index has beaten it so ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6219

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

visualguy, But, all those strategies assume that your employer and/or industry is surviving. Which may or may not be true by the time that you reach 50. The whole industry could be on the downward trend. It is not safe to be overly invested in an employer and/or industry either. The bottom line is ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

To be fair to international stocks that 100 years includes world wars. But yeah all the data I saw showed broad international indexes failing to perform as well as the US over whatever long term period chosen, war or not. International stocks were cheap in the past too, I really think something str...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

kosomoto wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:43 pm
International underperformed in most 20 year periods I could find before 2008 as well.
Correct. Actually, international has under-performed even if you look at much longer periods. I need to look up that study that was quoted here a couple of months ago. It went back something like 100 years.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6219

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

The key to survival in private industry after 50 is not to be easily replaceable by someone younger. In general, the reality is that companies don't want to hire or keep older workers unless they bring some value that can't be easily obtained from younger people. There are strategies for improving y...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6796

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

The problem is that international (ex-US) has done poorly over very long periods of time, so the track record is frightening. I would have to look it up, but there was a thread here a couple of months ago showing performance over very long time frames (starting at 100 years ago or so), and it didn't...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?
Replies: 25
Views: 2019

Re: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?

How much does your stable value fund pay?

I use stable value funds and CDs instead of bond index funds. I've been trying to understand the rationale for going with bond index funds, but so far I don't see how that makes sense if you have access to a good stable value fund and/or CDs.
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2085

Re: Very confused by Bonds

OP, The Alan Roth article mentioned in this post is somewhat relevant. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3568320#p3568320 Even from that article, it's not clear why you would pick a bond index fund (such as BND) vs CDs. If interest rates go up or something else happens that hurts bon...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3193

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

I wouldn't listen to the CNBC noise. I would take time to learn about the mathematics of a bond fund, instead. Here's an exercise I did a while back to convince myself that a total-market bond index fund is nothing like a total-market stock index fund. I simply simulated what would happen if histor...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3193

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

There's definitely a lot of concern about bonds: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/wealth-manager-warns-on-bond-markets-creating-the-biggest-financial-crisis-of-our-lifetime.html I mostly stay away from bond index funds. I don't want to take risk with the non-stock part of my portfolio. Stable value f...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

The Accord beats the Camry with infotainment: Apple Carplay and Android Auto. Probably no need to get Navi. Yes, but I wish Honda didn't omit the bird's view parking cameras. I use that pretty much every time I park - very useful. I don't know why they included pretty much everything you can think ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

All-electric is fine - definitely looking forward to that! Turbo 4-cyl has nothing to do with that, and I would definitely go with a V6 instead of the turbo 4-cyl for the driving experience and reliability. The Camry V6 is proven to be highly reliable, and the fuel consumption is great at 22/32/26. ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

kjvmartin wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:25 pm
Agree that these turbos are not a welcome change to the driving experience for most cars.
There's also an impact on reliability with turbos.
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

yukonjack wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:06 pm
The 2.0 liter engine puts out 252 hp so I’m not sure why one would miss the 6 cylinder.
The Camry V6 is 301 HP. Also, I love the linear smooth response of naturally aspirated V6 engines. The driving experience of a 2L 4-cyl turbo isn't even close...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

....... In general, it's hard to find cars under $40K with really good seats... Why? (This is a serious question. I really don't know.) Cost, I would guess. Good seats aren't cheap, and manufacturers can't install expensive seats on cars at that price level. You start getting the really good seats ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2018 Honda Accord
Replies: 53
Views: 4986

Re: 2018 Honda Accord

No bird's eye parking cameras on the 2018 Accord. The 2018 Camry has them. I find this to be a very useful feature. Also, the Camry has a naturally aspirated V6 rather than a turbo 4-cylinder. I would take the V6. In terms of seats, reviewers have complained that the seats in the 2018 Camry are too ...
by visualguy
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 139
Views: 14341

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Agreed about real estate... Much better investment than stock and bond index funds, particularly when looking at the expected returns of a Boglehead portfolio going forward based on current market conditions. One issue, however, is location, location, location... What if you live in a location where...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 139
Views: 14341

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Over that 58 year period, 27 of the periods have been at or below 3% real returns for the S&P 500. That's nearly a 50/50 split. So, if I'm retired and I get 3%/yr real over the next decade for the stock market, and 0% real for bonds, and I'm at 50/50, then my real return is 1.5% before tax (assumin...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 139
Views: 14341

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Sorry, but 3% is [absolutely unacceptable --admin LadyGeek] . Nobody gets rich with 3% annual. There must be alternatives. I dunno, buying condos, renovating them and renting them out will get you more than 3%. Investing that money in some business venture will get you more than 3%. 5% would have b...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 139
Views: 14341

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

What would be the driver for good returns? Ultimately, it would have to be economic growth. The stock market valuations are already very high, so earnings will have to grow significantly, which means economic growth is needed. Unfortunately, US and Europe have been stuck at around 2%, and it's not ...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 139
Views: 14341

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Asking where growth will come from in the future is similar to someone in 1950 asking about when will the microchip or integrated circuit be invented. All it takes is a few scientific breakthroughs and growth is limitless. My barely educated opinion is that major breakthroughs in energy and energy ...
by visualguy
Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 139
Views: 14341

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

What would be the driver for good returns? Ultimately, it would have to be economic growth. The stock market valuations are already very high, so earnings will have to grow significantly, which means economic growth is needed. Unfortunately, US and Europe have been stuck at around 2%, and it's not c...
by visualguy
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Where would a very good programmer work in KC? How many such employers are there? What happens if you want to start a company? Venture capital? Talent? You are missing the RSUs and bonuses which double the income (or more) of many strong engineers in the Bay Area these days. Also, a fast appreciatin...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

The spread of really high prices and the disappearance of anything dilapidated has continued to spread out from Palo Alto, roughly the epicentre of all this. At one time, maybe 15-20 years ago, Mountain View, the town over, was the place to buy because Palo Alto was too expensive. Then it was Sunny...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

I mean, San Jose used to be a small city until the 1970s and in 50 years, explodes to the technological center of the world. Who's to say it can't happen to Galveston, TX if the creators of the next big tech leap wanted to build there? To be accurate, San Jose isn't really where it happened. It was...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

HomerJ, Regular "programmers" get paid enough to rent, not buy. Rental complexes are growing very fast in the Bay Area. The vast majority of residential construction in the area now is nice apartment complexes. Many old commercial buildings and strip malls are getting torn down, and replaced by apar...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

There are not enough high income people to support that. I think that's where you're wrong. Why wouldn't the income and wealth (such as stock holdings and RSUs and foreign money) of enough people in the area keep up with the rate of growth of the stock market? A more likely scenario, in my opinion,...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

This is where Prop 60 is a huge incentive for Bay Area retirees. My parents bought their home in Morgan Hill in 1993 for the low $200s. Due to Prop 13, their property tax increased only slightly even though their house was worth $800,000. They sold their house in January and moved closer to me, in ...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

+1. I've been reading BH for years and have seen many Bay Area real estate posts over the years. In them, you will find sound and sage advice from many well-meaning BHers recommending you to NOT buy a home here. And yet, considering the appreciation over the last few years, I would think that almos...
by visualguy
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14130

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

There will be a recession someday. And things have a way of changing during recessions. Not so much in the Bay Area. During the last recession (2008), home prices in the core areas of the Bay Area dropped only 15%. Since then, there have been IPOs (such as Facebook), a big influx of money from Chin...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Well, I'm not a proponent of large bond allocations for long term (30-40 year) portfolios either. But from your earlier post(s) I got the feeling that you thought real estate essentially dominates bonds, for wealthy investors (i.e. superior in basically all cases), whereas I think there are uses fo...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

I didn't claim any were one-trick ponies. I said they "disproportionately thrived" on certain industries. As for what is "most desirable for the educated, creative, entrepreneurial and wealthy...", that too, can change, over time. I live in St. Louis County. In 1904 St. Louis vied with Chicago for ...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

There are other examples of this. This article had a big impact on how I thought about wealth/money: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/04/secret-fears-of-the-super-rich/308419/ I don't think that there are any surprising revelations in these articles... The cliche that money can't b...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Which is a good reason to own bonds, right? :) You own stock, and instead of bonds, housing in "hot areas". Well, if there's a tech crash, both stocks and housing in SF could go down at the same time (and if you're IN tech, you could lose your job at the same time). So that's why we hold bonds. It'...
by visualguy
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:38 pm
It's amazing to me that these people have put themselves in a position (by spending too much) where they still have to worry about money.
To be fair though, it does take a lot of money to live and raise a family in those areas.