Search found 624 matches

by visualguy
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 94
Views: 6303

Re: Early retirement

I have advised a close friend that saying "I'm taking a break right now" draws sympathy more than jealously so I would use it instead of saying retired. No reason for anyone to know that the break is permanent. Sometimes it really isn't permanent - I retired early, but later decided to go back to w...
by visualguy
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 64
Views: 3234

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Beyond the returns, there's another aspect that makes direct real estate attractive. It typically holds up relatively well at times of high inflation. Real assets are where you want to be invested at those times. Real estate is an investment that has a good combination of attributes. However, it doe...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?
Replies: 63
Views: 3550

Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Have higher prices hit yet? What actions would result in a higher price on the minivan I'm interested in? Is this something that happens overnight or will there be a small window for me to beat the tariff with an early purchase? Higher prices haven't hit yet, so if you buy now you'll beat any tarif...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?
Replies: 63
Views: 3550

Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Without getting into politics, I don't think tariffs on autos are likely to both be imposed and stay imposed long term. Buying on this speculation is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog. It's impossible to say one way or the other... The high tariffs on light trucks ("chicken tax") were impo...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?
Replies: 63
Views: 3550

Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

A look at US employment numbers clears all of the noise. Final assembly is small portion of the overall company make up. It's not just about where the profits go. Personally, I value the high skilled, high paying white collar jobs over the unskilled blue collar jobs. Supply chains have been globali...
by visualguy
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?
Replies: 63
Views: 3550

Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Fake news. Are you implying that Toyota and Honda are as American as GM, Ford, and Chrysler? What's your definition of "made" - simply where final assembly is done? Great - that covers some of the blue collar workers, none of the white collar or where all of the R&D, execs and HQ are - not to menti...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Continuing Care Community versus 55 + (no LTC and modest assets)
Replies: 61
Views: 3844

Re: Continuing Care Community versus 55 + (no LTC and modest assets)

But the opposite is that 50% will need nursing care, and if the person lives alone and does not have any daughters to look after them, then you have a different viewpoint on this. Not everyone has the support that your family has, so we have to look at some type of CCRC facility. Dan999 7 figure en...
by visualguy
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your equity is int’l?
Replies: 141
Views: 7477

Re: What % of your equity is int’l?

0% in the ex-US index because of its lousy long-term performance, and the fact that it's not an effective way to benefit from economic growth in China and India.
by visualguy
Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [100% stock, uncomfortable with international]
Replies: 65
Views: 5565

Re: [100% stock, uncomfortable with international]

Ex-US has lagged US significantly over the long run, while suffering from more volatility. Unless by “long run” you are referring only to the last 15 years, this isn’t true. Over the past 100 years, global stocks have had similar returns to U.S. stocks with lower volatility. The studies I read (whi...
by visualguy
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [100% stock, uncomfortable with international]
Replies: 65
Views: 5565

Re: [100% stock, uncomfortable with international]

Ex-US has lagged US significantly over the long run, while suffering from more volatility. Not sure why I should expect that to change after such a history of being a lousy long-term investment. Unfortunately, the economic growth in China and India isn't captured by their stock markets because of th...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1793

Re: Keeping up with inflation

Direct real estate typically keeps up with inflation nicely after taxes. Also, stock most likely in the long run. Fixed income loses to inflation post tax.
by visualguy
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 12147

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

The concern about changes for the worse in the ACA or its elimination is definitely a big issue for early retirees. One thing that I never see mentioned, however, is that this concern shouldn't be specific to retirees or people who don't have employer insurance... Yes, it's worse for them than for p...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 10701

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

I dont own any international. Used to years ago and got rid of it all. Same here. I had it years ago, but then got rid of it all after researching it. Realized the long-term returns had been relatively lousy, and with too much volatility for the returns. I was still keeping it for a while hoping to...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Market Volatility? (Foreign stocks in freefall?)
Replies: 12
Views: 1598

Re: International Market Volatility? (Foreign stocks in freefall?)

The relatively low long-term returns of ex-US is a bigger problem with that investment than volatility...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Life in retirement - what did you do today?
Replies: 194
Views: 17414

Re: Life in retirement - what did you do today?

I was retired for a couple of years, but then went back to work. It's not difficult to fill time. No issue with finding things to do while retired, although a few of them cost money. The problem for me was a sense of waste of skills and education. I kept in touch with colleagues from my age group wh...
by visualguy
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 13896

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

$10M is ridiculous. If we use the traditional 4% rule, $10M results in $400k/year. Bogleheads tend to be a financially conservative group, CAPE10 is relatively high, and real interest rates are near historic lows, so let's say 3% is the new 4%. That's still $300k/year. Anyone who thinks $300k/year ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I am STUNNED over how much help my friends recieved with house purchase!
Replies: 47
Views: 3936

Re: I am STUNNED over how much help my friends recieved with house purchase!

It's almost a necessary thing in VHCOL areas... I covered about half the house cost for my son and his wife, which enabled them to start a family sooner than they would have been able to otherwise. That financial help makes a huge difference in life when received as a young adult. If you want to hav...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement
Replies: 74
Views: 7248

Re: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement

The drops in birth rates (2%-3%) aren't that huge, and immigration needs to be factored in as well as births. The article cites the study, but doesn't mention the percentage drops, instead making exaggerated statements like "Millennials just aren’t having kids".
by visualguy
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New or used Genesis reviews
Replies: 14
Views: 1817

Re: New or used Genesis reviews

I test drove the Genesis G80 Sport. Definitely good value for the money, and a good luxury car. However, it's not a bargain BMW or anything like that. The differences between that car and, say, the BMW 540i are clear - interior quality, electronics, handling, weight. I find the Germans (5-series, E-...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 22496

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I'm not sure why either. I've been trying to understand for nearly a year on this forum. The minds on this forum are very bright, much smarter than me. I have learned a ton in a short time. But people on here will insist to invest in inferior assets by nearly every single metric except liquidity. T...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 22496

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Real estate. Banks give you the money to buy the property (trying asking a bank to write you a $400K check to buy $500K of Apple or Amazon stock), tenants provide the money to build your equity, and you legally don't pay any taxes on your income. Things just cannot get sweeter than U.S. real estate...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 22496

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

You sound like the person who picks one or two individual stocks and gets a good return, and declares stock picking is a good low-effort activity that doesn't take much effort to get right. Of course some people do that and feel that way. But you live in an extremely atypical world where "most" of ...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 22496

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

So what should we invest in besides stocks? Direct real estate - rental properties. No easy money here. Rental properties take time and effort. They often return a lot less than their proponents state. If you know this business, perhaps. If you don't - look elsewhere I strongly disagree. Owning ren...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103228

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

AFAIK, the only situation where you or any other driver using EAP wouldn't be able to save themselves is if they weren't paying attention and/or weren't conscious. EAP is extremely easy to override with a relatively small amount of force, which can drop the car down to TACC, or completely into manu...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103228

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Your comments are interesting. That is what is known as accident reconstruction. This case may eventually be tried before judge and jury so we may be wasting our time here. Key point is when should driver have become aware that car was heading for barrier? Probably when it started to accelerate. An...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103228

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Don’t understand your small fraction of a second comment. There were a full six seconds that the drivers hands not detected on wheel, which implies he had at least six seconds to disengage autopilot and move car back to correct lane. No, it doesn't imply that at all. You are assuming that the car w...
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103228

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

jdb - at 70MPH you are going 34 yards per second - that's well over half the length of an olympic-size swimming pool. You are going to crash into the barrier in a small fraction of a second. Good luck.
by visualguy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1326
Views: 103228

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

I am reading comments but not understanding. The Tesla autopilot is in beta mode as manual explicates. Eyes on road and hands on steering wheel at all times. That should not be so difficult for drivers to understand. All the so called autopilot crashes seemingly could have been easily avoided if dr...
by visualguy
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Rate Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 4186

Re: Rising Interest Rate Strategy

No point in taking the risk with bond funds - it's extremely unlikely that there's anything to be gained. There's the double whammy of the Fed raising interest rates and also ramping up quantitative tightening at the same time. Sleep well with CDs and stable value funds (or individual bonds) instead.
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 51808

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

The average property tax in NYC is not the number your cited. That's the property tax on a median-priced home in NY State. Good luck with that in NYC... That is correct. I made a mistake and quoted NY STATE instead of NY City... I edited my post above but not fast enough :) Anyway it's $5000-$7500 ...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 51808

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

No I'm correct... Huge swathes of the coast are not HCOL. The average ANNUAL property tax in America is $2,197. You might think the 8 million people in New York City all pay high property taxes, but you'd be wrong. The average property tax in New York City is $4,738. My $1000/month was ridiculously...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 51808

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

One nice thing about living on 6k a month is your income taxes are low. :) $1k month for property taxes is too high for 95% of areas.... If you must live in the 5% HCOL areas then yes you'll need more. Look, you live in San Fran or somewhere. Your costs are higher. That's fine, you can legitimately...
by visualguy
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 51808

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Have you actually tracked your current "regular expenses"? Because in my experience, they don't add up very quickly. Utilities and food and car/home insurance don't cost that much... let's say $2000 a month, which is high for most people. Now, property taxes are hugely variable, as is health-care. ...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3239

Re: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

Means testing is firmly resisted by many politicians because they fully understand that the test level will have to be set quite low for it to make any difference in the economics. Not sure how many would be for or against it, but I wouldn't bet against it because a case could be made for it, and t...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 433
Views: 51808

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

It seems like no one is ever really content with what they have - as soon as they reach a huge amount of net worth for retirement, I see people moving the goalpost further out. Right, but there are good reasons for that. There is a lot of uncertainty around health care and long-term care. The older...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3239

Re: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

Burying the lead... The Social Security Wage Base isn't rising high enough/fast enough. Too many are maxing out. In order to remain solvent, high earners (and their employers that pay the other half) need to pitch in more. ...Or add a surtax like they do with Medicare wages above $200k. Furthermore...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3239

Re: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year

That's not a surprise... SS has been expected to start dipping into reserves this year, and continue doing so until they are depleted around 2034 at which time it will start being able to pay only 75% of obligations unless some changes are made before then. I don't rely on SS in my retirement planni...
by visualguy
Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?
Replies: 276
Views: 13947

Re: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?

But instead I'm seeing a very tired cardiologist imagining the endpoint of the road not taken I think that describes many of us in middle age or later, which is the reason this thread generated so much activity... Imagining the endpoints of roads not taken, rethinking major past decisions, wonderin...
by visualguy
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?
Replies: 276
Views: 13947

Re: Can a Retired 60 yo MD, MBA Start a Law Career?

You want to switch to an academic career as a law professor in your 60s coming from a different career in a different field? Are you serious? :shock:
by visualguy
Thu May 31, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12679

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

This kind of situation is an exception, but it isn't extremely rare. I call it the "too rich for a regular job, too poor and/or young to retire" situation. There's no general solution - people handle it in different ways. One important thing is to avoid blowing the money away on failing businesses. ...
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8375

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

No it doesn't. I need $100k purchasing power pretax as retirement income. Average tax 20%, so I need $80k purchasing power for retirement. Rampant inflation, my $100k is only worth $50k in purchasing power (inflation reduced my purchasing power by half)...lucky me, I invested all that $100k on TIPS...
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8375

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

TIPS, pretty much allows me to put my money under the mattress (safety) and not worry about inflation - magic mattress. But TIPS don't really keep up with inflation post-tax, so you still lose to inflation, right? TIPS keep up with CPI definition of inflation, so it keeps up with inflation. If you ...
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8375

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

gilgamesh wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 4:55 am
TIPS, pretty much allows me to put my money under the mattress (safety) and not worry about inflation - magic mattress.
But TIPS don't really keep up with inflation post-tax, so you still lose to inflation, right?
by visualguy
Wed May 30, 2018 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8375

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

The best way to hedge (actually, profit) from inflation is to hold fixed, low interest debt on buy and hold real estate. Every year, you continue to pay the lender in dollars that are worth less and less by the year. Don't make this more difficult than it needs to be ! :wink: Direct real-estate ass...
by visualguy
Tue May 29, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8375

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Direct real estate holds up nicely with inflation. I like 35% stock, 50% direct RE, and 15% fixed income.
by visualguy
Sat May 26, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 118
Views: 10832

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

Ex-coworkers may help, or they may see you as competition, hence a threat. Things are rarely simple with people.
by visualguy
Thu May 24, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10648

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

Because the interest earned on the bonds keeps going up also. I like getting a raise, even though I am not working. How are you getting a raise? The yield goes up on the bond funds, but the NAV goes down, so you earn a larger percentage of a smaller amount. Isn't it a wash, and you get pretty much ...
by visualguy
Thu May 24, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12623

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

I am very curious about where those who are doing regular jobs live in Bay Area if a two tech/physician family can't afford an entry level home. Even big tech companies have a lot of administrative and supportive positions. Good question... I wonder about that myself. I think it's a combination of ...
by visualguy
Thu May 24, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing
Replies: 150
Views: 12623

Re: New(ish) attending physicians in the Bay Area: Housing

This. Also, Death by suicide is 1.7x general population, over 2x for women physicians = ~400 deaths a year. Right, but not sure it has much to do with money pressures. It is one of the most depressing professions around, unfortunately... I'm glad some people are able to do it - I wouldn't last a da...
by visualguy
Wed May 23, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances
Replies: 83
Views: 8064

Re: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances

Here's my long term care plan: https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/10/health/david-goodall-australian-scientist-dies-intl/index.html I have no intention of enduring Alzheimer's in any form or fashion, and would be gone long before LTC would be required. I don't personally consider such a minimal existence ...