Search found 675 matches

by visualguy
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 87
Views: 6218

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

Why not just buy what you want (work the deal) then take it to Carmax 3 years later and sell in 45 minutes, repeat process? Write the depreciation and overall cost off as a lease payments. Either way you end up with a new car every three years. Leasing would most likely cost you less than doing thi...
by visualguy
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy-Out BMW Lease / Buy More Practical New Model / Buy Practical Used Model? Help
Replies: 82
Views: 3306

Re: Buy-Out BMW Lease / Buy More Practical New Model / Buy Practical Used Model? Help

If you drive that few miles a year I might consider getting a higher mileage version and/or forgo the extended warranty. The majority of expensive repairs usually correlates with mileage and/or wear and tear drive train components. I wouldn't bother with the extended warranty either, but I think ti...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you really have something to retire to?
Replies: 127
Views: 10197

Re: Did you really have something to retire to?

My point is based on my personal situation or experience. I am single living alone, so I go to work for mostly social reasons. When I don't work, I never get bored, but eventually I get lonely. I have so much freedom that I don't know what to do. I am reclusive too and have enjoyed my own company m...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 87
Views: 6218

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

More false information here. First of all, the dealer determines the residual value of the lease, not the manufacturer. Second, you don't "get the sales tax back" when you trade-in. A traded-in vehicle simply reduces the taxable amount of the new vehicle sale. Why anyone would trade-in and get thou...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 87
Views: 6218

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

Not true at all, unless you trade it in and allow the dealer to rip you off. I disagree. Manufacturers "subsidize" leases by providing residuals which are higher than what you would be able to sell the car for. This applies even if you're willing to take on the considerable hassle of selling the ca...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 87
Views: 6218

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

You do realize a money factor of 5% equates to an interest rate of 120%, right? I do accounting for multi-million dollar businesses of all kinds. I've never once recommended leasing a vehicle, nor has any business owner came up to me and said "you know, I love owning this truck, but I wish we lease...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you really have something to retire to?
Replies: 127
Views: 10197

Re: Did you really have something to retire to?

In my view, ideally you enjoy what you do for a living enough not to want to retire... If that doesn't work out then, yes, finding occupation is important and a challenge. Having not much to do is a huge problem on many fronts in my experience... I tried to retire early in the past and went back to ...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 142
Views: 10155

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

Will a 20-40% allocation to bonds be adequate to thwart the effects of this? 60/40 will reduce the effects when compared to 100/0 in many cases... However, there are also all the gains that you potentially missed before the market fell 50%, so who knows. I don't like having all or most savings in t...
by visualguy
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to Retire
Replies: 48
Views: 6659

Re:

..i retired at 50 when offered an early out with finances and medical to make it work....soon the relationship between my wife and i began to encounter a new stress...she didn't work and we were spending too much time around each other even though we had hobbies apart from each other. Common proble...
by visualguy
Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 87
Views: 6218

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

DW and I retired three years ago. Have always bought our cars. We have begun leasing now for the following reasons: 1. Driving cars with new/current technology 2. Car under warranty for entire term of lease 3. Tired of selling cars (can be a real PITA) 4. Very hard to keep cars in mint condition - ...
by visualguy
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing Cars in Retirement
Replies: 87
Views: 6218

Re: Leasing Cars in Retirement

One distinct downside to leasing is that it forces you to make a decision on your car at the end of 2-3 years (or whatever the term is). If you own the car, you can make a car choice when you are ready to- not when a lease term is up. Correct, and I don't see this mentioned often enough in lease vs...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6557

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

The answer is save enough and retire with enough so you are not dependent on returns for your life style. Bingo. Why count on investment growth above inflation to sleep at night during your retirement? Because working an extra decade to get enough money (and shorter retirement) in order to not coun...
by visualguy
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6557

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

Also, a lower return decade could mean different things... For example, a drop of 50% and then a multi-year recovery, or just a decade of stagnation without much volatility, or a decade of constant high volatility without going anywhere much. These scenarios aren't quite the same in terms of their f...
by visualguy
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 17784

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

The only thing that will truly change the trajectory of Bay Area RE is if (1) tech loses steam as the growth engine of the global economy, or (2) tech talent and companies truly diversify into other geographies (not just opening up regional sales and support offices). I don't think it's productive ...
by visualguy
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 17784

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

It very well could be, but 3.5% housing returns is also optimistic considering where Bay Area housing is right now. :) Diversifying into RE isn't a bad idea - but I see a broad-area REIT (at least in a tax-advantaged account) beating Bay Area RE and certainly being better diversified. Real estate i...
by visualguy
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 17784

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

As the tables on my post note, you should be looking at stock market investing returns of 9+%; at that point as the calculator shows renting at $4500 is cheaper than buying at $1.5M by about $1000/month. 9%+ for the stock market seems optimistic considering where it is right now. Regardless, it's b...
by visualguy
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 17784

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

2015 wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:04 am
I'm finally out of this place never to return to California's gridlocked and stiflingly overpopulated coastal cities.
Where are you headed?
by visualguy
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling
Replies: 120
Views: 17784

Re: Bay Area housing frenzy cooling

TigerNest wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:04 pm
Inventory is so low in the Bay Area and the local economy is doing so well that I doubt there'll be much actual downward prices over the next few years, just slower appreciation. But what do I know!
+1

I wouldn't expect anything worse than slower appreciation.
by visualguy
Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

FlyingMoose wrote:
Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:41 pm
If international was cheap before, it must be really really cheap now.
Unfortunately, it's not... Abysmal growth in some areas like Europe, inability to capture growth using the stock market in high-growth areas (China, India), etc. Same old.
by visualguy
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does leasing car leave me more freedom to invest?
Replies: 39
Views: 3020

Re: Does leasing car leave me more freedom to invest?

Car model replacement cycles are about 7 years. For example, if you buy a second-year BMW 5-series (to avoid first-year issues) with all the latest tech, it will be 7 years before the replacement model is at its second year. Not sure there's much reason to replace the car earlier, but I can see want...
by visualguy
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 21640

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

Which of the FAANG companies have you worked for and what's your personal experience with this? Cause there have been more than a couple of posters, myself included, who have worked or do work for such companies and have disputed that claim. I've had a problem with long hours at a company in Silico...
by visualguy
Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 278
Views: 29240

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

500 people/year are struck by lightning in the US, but we dont worry about that. We're still searching for an example where a 1M settlement was rejected and then the jury issued a larger judgement, against an individual who was driving responsibly, like a Boglehead would (ie not texting or DUI) If ...
by visualguy
Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lexus vs. Mercedes
Replies: 86
Views: 6418

Re: Lexus vs. Mercedes

Some people are missing the point that it's not can you afford it, it's should you really buy it? The majority of millionaires still drive humble Fords, Hondas, and Toyotas. They're smart and realize that luxury vehicles are for gullible people (mostly men) that want to project an image of wealth w...
by visualguy
Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 278
Views: 29240

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

I don't really buy umbrella insurance to protect my assets. It is more to protect me and my family. Most of my assets are in retirement accounts and can't be touched by creditors. However, without umbrella insurance, an uninsured driver hit us, cripple the entire family for the rest of our lives, a...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have an umbrella policy?
Replies: 278
Views: 29240

Re: Umbrella insurance..who has it? Is it recommended?

I think in many cases it's very reasonable to skip it... For example, if you and your spouse don't drive all that much, and have no driving kids, the probability of ever needing this insurance is extremely low. You can just max the liability on your auto insurance, and be done with it in my opinion....
by visualguy
Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lexus vs. Mercedes
Replies: 86
Views: 6418

Re: Lexus vs. Mercedes

It's only a mistake if you can't afford it...what's the point of having money if you're not going to use it for things that improve the quality of your life? Whatever psychological study shows this probably tested people with no soul...I have too much life in me to drive something as bland as a Toy...
by visualguy
Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

gvsucavie03 wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:27 pm
Recency bias is strong with this thread...

-Yoda
I guess the last 117 years can be considered "recency" if you are a paleontologist, but the dinosaurs didn't have a stock market as far as we know.
by visualguy
Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Comments welcome. Thanks !! I think you are right - these are all good points. The most powerful argument in my opinion is #2 (performance). When you look at long-term periods of a couple of decades or more in the past, investing in ex-US hurt, not helped. That pretty much kills it for me. It didn'...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring. 28 y.o. $5M in cash. Asking for advice for portfolio.
Replies: 80
Views: 13569

Re: Retiring. 28 y.o. $5M in cash. Asking for advice for portfolio.

There's also the risk of escalating spending. You may be frugal now as a 28 y.o., but that can change over the next 60 years... I was also very frugal at that age, but became less and less so with the years. You may develop a passion for cars, or boats, or travel, or some other expensive stuff. It d...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lexus vs. Mercedes
Replies: 86
Views: 6418

Re: Lexus vs. Mercedes

An important factor that is often ignored is service. The quality of the service departments can vary between dealerships and between brands. This is location-specific - it varies by area. Similarly, there could be good independent mechanics for one brand, but not another. For example, in my area I ...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?
Replies: 290
Views: 21640

Re: Decent compensation to move to Bay Area CA?

+1 Could not agree more about the lack of culture in Silicon Valley. Doesn't begin to compare to Paris or London. Or Berlin, Munich, Lisbon or any other of a number of cities. The SF Bay Area has the SF Symphony, Ballet, and Opera. Great theater in Berkeley. Two of the very best major universities ...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Today I retired [should I invest in rental properties?]
Replies: 25
Views: 2937

Re: Today I retired [should I invest in rental properties?]

What do we think about putting a portion of our nest egg into rental properties? I'm looking for an alternative to the stock/bond market for at least 1/3 of my portfolio. The devil is in the details, but in principle it's a good approach. Gives you good diversification, and more inflation protectio...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Where I would disagree with Nisiprius, and am more sympathetic to the OP, is in the interpretation. "[A]n average 4-5% per year" (I'm assuming that's nominal, not real return) is hardly commensurate with a multi-decade equity expectation. Ignoring the bugaboo of comparison to US equity, I'd say tha...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Exactly, Just like vast majority of the the gains in the US stock market over the last 10 years have been driven by a handful of companies.. Basically Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google and Microsoft (AKA FAMANG!). You take those guys out and the S&P 500 probably performed quite in line with ...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: eBay seller issue
Replies: 13
Views: 1330

Re: eBay seller issue

No, its the reason I no longer sell items on Ebay. There is virtually no way for the seller to fight it it and win. The buyer is always right in ebay's world. Right, same with PayPal, so even if you sell not on eBay, but you just accept payment through PayPal, you can be in trouble. The buyer effec...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International market funds just as US market funds are based on market cap and most are dominated by Large Global companies with huge export businesses. A good portion of US earnings come from outside the country and vice versa for other Global companies. To limit your investment to just a select f...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using ACA for early retirement years
Replies: 103
Views: 7195

Re: Using ACA for early retirement years

2. Be fully "in control" of your medical "stuff" and records - to reduce duplicate tests, exposure to X-Rays, etc. 3. Try to avoid unnecessary tests and treatments. +1 Do your best to avoid damage inflicted on your body by the medical system itself. There's a huge problem with unnecessary invasive ...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

vineviz wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:40 pm
Except for all the times when ex-US stocks consistently provided good returns and US stocks didn't, of course. Let's ignore THOSE time periods.
What is an example of a 30-year period when US indexing provided a poor return, but ex-US provided a good return?
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If international investing truly has been disaster then that's all the more reason to stay invested in it. Reversion to the mean rings loudly here. In addition, why would you want to divest from international and move into domestic if domestic has done well? (i.e. the price level of domestic has mo...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

This! Performance has nothing to do with the Bogleheads strategy. It says, buy and hold your asset allocation and dont mess with it. Be content that you are going to get the market returns. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to beat the market in the long run, so diversify , keep your cost...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International stocks having 20 or 30 year underperformance compared to the US means nothing at all for the future. They are both diversified set of stocks and International more so than US because it's a basket of countries and a greater percentage. The US is only about 35-40% of world cap. Just be...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Yet the people holding non-Australian stocks don't seem to be working hard to find reasons ... it's almost as if they think that no reason is even needed to invest in worse-performing countries like the US. Indexing the US market did not violate the basic principle of the Boglehead strategy which i...
by visualguy
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So now one of the arguments for international is that the US dollar might collapse, while the rest of the world hums along....surely no one actually believes that. Folks are working hard to find some reason to hold ex-US... The normal Boglehead argument that it does well if you keep it for the long...
by visualguy
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Of course the 30 year period I referred to is somewhat cherry picked; I said it was. But that doesn't mean that it isn't deemed to be relevant to many investors, as evidenced by the OP's statement. And for the record, the U.S. has outperformed international over the last 20 and 10 years as well. At...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Let's talk VGTSX. Straight from Vanguard's own website, growth rate, 4.84% compounded since inception, 4/29/1996. The year is 2018. 22 years. I've said it before and I'll say it again. That is too long a period for such a low growth rate. If you made the same case at 5 or even 10 years, I would not...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Lots of risk in international - Brexit in March, potential Euro collapse, China finally going the way of the rest of the Asian economies... Luckily as an investor you are compensated for risk (usually). That's what makes it investing. :D I will say fundamentally I don't believe in most other countr...
by visualguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Oldzey - exactly, this is not just a 10 year phenomenon. I think many here don't realize the degree of underperformance of ex-US, even in the long term.

If past (including long-term) performance doesn't justify investing in ex-US, then what does?
by visualguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82276

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

OP - you are correct. You can look back 20 years as well, not just 10. Ex-US indexing has not shown itself to be a good investment when looking at the returns and volatility. I think an interesting question is why the US has been so much better. Part of it is US dominance in certain tech areas (FAAN...
by visualguy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 151
Views: 19907

Re: International stocks in free fall

oldzey wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:29 pm
0% International works for me!

TGIF!

:sharebeer
+1

Ex-US performance has been hard to stomach for so many years now. Glad to be 0%.
by visualguy
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Net worth of $3.7M at age 47 - can I retire?
Replies: 126
Views: 14663

Re: Net worth of $3.7M at age 47 - can we retire?

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:13 am
People here focus way too much on the risk of running out of money, and completely ignore the risk of running out of time.
Running out of time to do what? I think we all know how running out of money is bad, but it's a lot less clear with "running out of time"...