Search found 1220 matches

by visualguy
Thu May 23, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1033

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

The Boglehead investment philosophy of buying and holding index funds for decades would have worked well at any time in the past, but how do we know it will work in the future? We don't. The future is always unknown. There is an assumption that the US stock markets and global stocks will, on averag...
by visualguy
Thu May 23, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1033

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

50 years is a long time in the context of a person's investment lifetime. I sometimes wonder about the "average time in the market" for the money I have in the market from the time it's invested until it's liquidated. I would estimate it at significantly less than 20 years.
by visualguy
Tue May 21, 2019 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

There are no guarantees - but a strong FI foundation in old age at least gives everyone some options - kids or not. I admire and wish the FIRE group the best, but when they hit their '70s and '80s, I hope those prior 30-40 years of freedom won't cost them more than they realize. I don't understand ...
by visualguy
Tue May 21, 2019 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

Regardless, relatives are family last I checked. Siblings especially can be very close. Yes, but they also tend to be close in age. My mom had one brother and he already passed away, so he wouldn't have been able to help. My dad has no siblings. My wife has a sister, but she is older, not as health...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

Sure, kids may abandon you completely, but that is not actually all that likely. Even looking at it from the perspective of their selfish interest and ignoring love, it's rarely in their best interest to do something like that, particularly if you have assets that they want to inherit some day. The...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

Not having kids when you lose your health, require surgeries, lose cognitive abilities, etc. is horrible and very hard to navigate. I honestly don't know what people do in that situation, particularly if the spouse is also in bad shape or passed away. This is a commonly-held belief and it's so misl...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

"no kids" is hardly a routine choice or sacrifice, though... That's a seriously life-altering one. I don't think you'll find many people who can relate to missing that part of life as a positive thing to enable retiring earlier. 100% agree. Having my son was easily the best thing I’ve ever done. It...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: remodeling costs in san francisco
Replies: 27
Views: 2536

Re: remodeling costs in san francisco

Good contractors are in huge demand in the Bay Area for 3 reasons. The first is that there simply aren't nearly enough of them in the area because it's hard for people to move there and start these businesses - high cost of living, shortage of workers. The second is that there are a lot of people wh...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

If people want to incorrectly take retirement to imply total retirement, then that's on them. If I still work for money, that's not retirement from my perspective. Most people never retire then. My father no longer does surgery, but he does mow the lawn at a building he rents to the hospital. I gue...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

This was my point in some earlier posts. Even though I kinda hit a lottery by cashing out $300k from company stock, my short answer of "no kids, no debts" quickly bored most people I told about my early retirement. Exactly. No one wants to hear about the routine choices and sacrifices you made that...
by visualguy
Mon May 20, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I off my rocker? Shift some assets to real estate?
Replies: 23
Views: 1972

Re: Am I off my rocker? Shift some assets to real estate?

Diversifying into rental properties in good locations is a smart thing to do if you don't mind being a landlord. Go for it.
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

drk wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 6:13 pm
If people want to incorrectly take retirement to imply total retirement, then that's on them.
If I still work for money, that's not retirement from my perspective.
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

Yes, but people can simply move . We live in a VHCOL area. As we near retirement we recognize moving would greatly reduce our annual living expenses and taxes. But we don’t find it simple to move due to a variety of factors: - Two sets of aging parents that need (physical) help on a weekly basis - ...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

Yes, but a third don't live in very high cost of living areas like San Francisco, Manhattan, or Seattle. Not sure about the exact proportion, but it's significant. You have to add up the Seattle area, SF Bay Area, LA area, San Diego, Boston, much of CT, NYC area, DC area, Hawaii, etc. It's a large ...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

My .02 if they have under $3m they are just delusional that their money will last. It sounds like you and Suze Orman would get along great. Most American households survive just fine for many years on incomes of far less than $90k annually ($3 million x 3% perpetual withdrawal rate). Millions do it...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

My .02 if they have under $3m they are just delusional that their money will last. It sounds like you and Suze Orman would get along great. Most American households survive just fine for many years on incomes of far less than $90k annually ($3 million x 3% perpetual withdrawal rate). Millions do it...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Guidance to Parents With Kids Majoring Computer Science
Replies: 25
Views: 2296

Re: Guidance to Parents With Kids Majoring Computer Science

I am dubious about the claim that an individual contributor at Google with 8 years experience makes $500k a year while the same individual contributor at Intel only makes $150-200k a year. It is pretty much the case, actually. It gets even more surprising because you can see this sometimes even in ...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14111

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

I guess they think there isn't any stress in low paying jobs but I would argue quite the reverse. Oddly, it seems low paying jobs frequently have lots of stress. It seems they need a class in stress management not a new job bagging groceries. I am confused. :shock: :shock: Low paying jobs are stres...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 137
Views: 10700

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

My opinion is that it doesn't matter. Staying the course, saving enough, and generally indexing matters. It has made a significant difference so far. Also, there is no virtue in staying on a bad course. It's better to change course in that case. In other words throwing the boglehead principals out ...
by visualguy
Sun May 19, 2019 1:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 137
Views: 10700

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

NotTooDeepLearning wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 11:21 pm
My opinion is that it doesn't matter. Staying the course, saving enough, and generally indexing matters.
It has made a significant difference so far. Also, there is no virtue in staying on a bad course. It's better to change course in that case.
by visualguy
Sat May 18, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 137
Views: 10700

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

VTSAX plus rental properties.
by visualguy
Thu May 16, 2019 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 95
Views: 9470

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

Transitioning from a mostly increasing or stable net worth to a mostly decreasing net worth can be traumatic even if you can afford it. There's a lot of difficulty in making this transition voluntarily, and avoiding it is at least somewhat motivating. In many cases, motivating-enough unless you real...
by visualguy
Tue May 14, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

Totally agree. IMHO once you have "enough" you should consider making the transition from a Return Maximizer to a Risk Manager. "Enough" is unknown, though. I can't say with any precision how much my wife and I will need/want for the rest of our lives without having knowledge of the future. I can c...
by visualguy
Mon May 13, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30% Equity, Does that mean US or Foreign
Replies: 6
Views: 495

Re: 30% Equity, Does that mean US or Foreign

I don't think saying"" 30 percent equities is probably enough for a 30 yr retirement" provides much guidance without also having some general idea of what is the maximum percentage should be in international ( or US) . Most such numbers are based on US-only studies. There are some tools that let yo...
by visualguy
Mon May 13, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 200
Views: 9770

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

All the big banks were expecting Europe and EM's to outperform in 2019, so far - nothing. I tend to agree with you, they must be just looking at PE metrics. Right, and even that isn't well-argued. It's true that the current US P/E is significantly higher than its historical average, but that is als...
by visualguy
Mon May 13, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 200
Views: 9770

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

In my taxable account, I mirror the Target Date Fund in my IRA to determine my mix of US/international. I figure the experts at Vanguard know more than I do, so I'll just follow along with them. The problem is that they don't disclose how they invest their own money, just how they invest other peop...
by visualguy
Mon May 13, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

This could happen (as in Japan) without the world as we know it ending, or the economy collapsing.

There are only two things that I can see for mitigating that. Own direct real estate in addition to stocks/bonds, and work longer.
by visualguy
Mon May 13, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 200
Views: 9770

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

Got an email today from Vanguard regarding international/domestic asset allocation. Here's the PDF: https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAWHYINT.pdf Summary: Vanguard reports US equity annualized returns of 10.1% for past 30 years and projects 5.1% for the next 10 years. International non-US equi...
by visualguy
Thu May 09, 2019 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 6468

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

Without a doubt, the number one driver of my investment success today is not the percentage of domestic (US) v international, be it bonds or equities. My number one driver is the amount of money I invest monthly into my account. And with that in mind, if I lived and worked in the USA, why would I w...
by visualguy
Thu May 09, 2019 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5344

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

I need some numbers for the next powerball ticket I buy. Can you check your crystal ball for me? Thanks.... Can't help you with that one, sorry, because it's random. Europe, Japan, China, etc. stock index performance isn't random, and there isn't enough time for things to change sufficiently there ...
by visualguy
Tue May 07, 2019 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5344

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

... I refuse to hold index funds because I've recently learned that many US firms actually do business in non-USA countries... You should have listened to Mr.Bogle , that's among his arguments for why buying an international fund isn't necessary for U.S. investors JACK BOGLE: If you own the S&P 500...
by visualguy
Tue May 07, 2019 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5344

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 1:48 pm
So in fact Buffett and Bogle have been right for a long time. In spite of that, I hold INTL in cap weight because I believe that it offers diversification and also that going forward due to its much better valuations it is likely to outperform US.
Hope springs eternal.
by visualguy
Tue May 07, 2019 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5344

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

Will it be more of the same in the future or will the tide reverse? The following is an article that argues that we are near the point of maximal pessimism for international equity and that those like me who have held on to underperforming INTL for many years should take heart after the beating we'...
by visualguy
Fri May 03, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

I'm not disagreeing with the rate. I'm illustrating scenarios where the average person (who the 45 is tailored to) would experience extreme distress and how having more wealth makes it easier to deal with. Agreed, but this is going back to the psychology part. It's true indeed that the smaller the ...
by visualguy
Fri May 03, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

If someone had only 100k in retirement and it was all in stocks and it was 2008, they'd be in serious trouble. That said, they're in serious trouble regardless of the drawdown. Increase it to 500k and it's only slightly better with such a large drawdown, but taking withdrawals out at this point is ...
by visualguy
Fri May 03, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

So, really, the question is whether you can stomach the drawdown risk. If it did happen, would it be the end of your retirement? Based on SWR studies with 100% (US) stock, it shouldn't be a problem with the same well-known SWRs (4% for 30 years, 3.5% for 40 years, etc.) The future could be differen...
by visualguy
Thu May 02, 2019 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?
Replies: 92
Views: 12999

Re: Do you invest in Real Estate ? Why ?

Folks, 1. Do you invest in Real Estate ? 2. If yes, Why do you invest ? Cash Flow vs 3-Fund-Portfolio ? 3. If not, Why not ? I'll appreciate if you please share any real experiences; My Financial Advisor advised me to consider Real Estate investments for Cash Flow diversification. 1. Yes 2. Diversi...
by visualguy
Thu May 02, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Empty nester downsizing - success!!!
Replies: 102
Views: 13307

Re: Empty nester downsizing - any advice?

You seem to be equating less space with less nice. In our case we transitioned from a decades old house (with decades old bathrooms and kitchen) to a recent construction "luxury" apartment with all that stuff they show on TV (quartz counter tops, backsplash, nickel finishes, stainless appliances, e...
by visualguy
Thu May 02, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

So, really, the question is whether you can stomach the drawdown risk. If it did happen, would it be the end of your retirement? Based on SWR studies with 100% (US) stock, it shouldn't be a problem with the same well-known SWRs (4% for 30 years, 3.5% for 40 years, etc.) The future could be differen...
by visualguy
Thu May 02, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Also, I think how much you have socked away in bonds matters quite a bit. Once you have something like 10 years expenses socked away... your AA probably starts to matter a lot less IMO. You have won the game by such a large margin, 50% corrections aren’t exactly a problem. When are 50% corrections ...
by visualguy
Thu May 02, 2019 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The goal of achieving FI
Replies: 41
Views: 3387

Re: The goal of achieving FI

FI doesn't really mean what you said... It just means having enough assets to live for the rest of your life at a reasonable standard of living without working. It's freedom from the financial need to work, that's all.
by visualguy
Thu May 02, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Empty nester downsizing - success!!!
Replies: 102
Views: 13307

Re: Empty nester downsizing - any advice?

It's not so much the stuff that creates the space, it's more the need for space and a buffer zone for a couple who are suddenly together all day. It's very personal and depends on your relationship and the kind of personalities you have and your level of tolerance. +1 I know for sure that I would g...
by visualguy
Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 7031

Re: "The market is overvalued"

Looking back over the years, whenever I had money to invest, it always seemed to me that the market was overvalued. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. All I know for sure is that over the long term it has gone up. True in the US so far, but not universally true (e.g. Japan), and not guaranteed to conti...
by visualguy
Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 7031

Re: "The market is overvalued"

Looking back over the years, whenever I had money to invest, it always seemed to me that the market was overvalued. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. All I know for sure is that over the long term it has gone up. True in the US so far, but not universally true (e.g. Japan), and not guaranteed to conti...
by visualguy
Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I don't think I should get long term care insurance right now
Replies: 87
Views: 4560

Re: Why I don't think I should get long term care insurance right now

"It's those in the middle for whom LTCi seems to be potentially most appealing." I Would propose the thought that is also makes sense fore those that have more than the $2 million but have relatively low premiums that are also a tax deduction making the OOP expenses very attractive for the coverage...
by visualguy
Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I don't think I should get long term care insurance right now
Replies: 87
Views: 4560

Re: Why I don't think I should get long term care insurance right now

Subscribed, but only because I am making myself read another thread on LTCI. I keep waffling on the decision not to get it, but I keep coming back to what beyou and the OP describe. I'm only interested in insuring against potentially catastrophic events and requiring nursing home care for 1-3 years...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If FIRECalc shows 100% success rate, what holds you back from retiring?
Replies: 126
Views: 11578

Re: If FIRECalc shows 100% success rate, what holds you back from retiring?

what we are struggling with (52 for both of us - no kids). We would like to develop a plan where we spend more for 12 years (while we are not young - still not very old) to do some adventures. Then we would ramp down in our mid 60's I am just having a hard time modelling this. The best approach for...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: I'm not going to run out
Replies: 62
Views: 8514

Re: Retirees: I'm not going to run out

Many of us know that financial experts recommend having a portfolio of 25 X annual spending, withdrawing no more than 4 percent per year starting at age 65 and adjusting future annual withdrawals for inflation. My opinion is that the vast majority of retirees who dogmatically follow those rules wil...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justifying Home Bias in your Portfolio
Replies: 97
Views: 6190

Re: Justifying Home Bias in your Portfolio

100% US. Not home bias - I would do the same if I lived in another country. My money goes where folks like Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Jensen Huang, etc. emigrate. Once they start going to Europe, Japan, etc. instead, I will start reconsidering. I don't expect it to happen in my limited remaining lifet...
by visualguy
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justifying Home Bias in your Portfolio
Replies: 97
Views: 6190

Re: Justifying Home Bias in your Portfolio

100% US. Not home bias - I would do the same if I lived in another country. My money goes where folks like Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Jensen Huang, etc. emigrate. Once they start going to Europe, Japan, etc. instead, I will start reconsidering. I don't expect it to happen in my limited remaining lifeti...