Search found 114 matches

by deanmoriarty
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10743

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead. I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of ...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

Thanks everyone. After thinking more about it, I decided to refuse the investor offer, I am too bullish on the company and taking 600k right now would not make a single difference at all in my life. I personally know people in SV who went this route before and ended up cashing 5M, which was life cha...
by deanmoriarty
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

I have been reading with interest as I am in an eerily similar situation as OP. Also 30 in CA, $750k investable, $350k annual earnings. Was an early employee in a startup, and shares are now worth ~$1M. Am still at startup, it has been 4 years since I joined. Have not been offered a buyout but am s...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

Reframing might add perspective. If you had the $650K in hand, and were given the one-time opportunity to invest it in the company, would you do so? If yes, how do you rationalize holding 50% of your AA in this private stock? I'm not saying you cannot rationalize it, but what does that rationale lo...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

dbr wrote:
Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:17 pm
How does a 30 year old come up with a handle of deanmoriarity?
Care to elaborate? I’m not sure if it’s a positive or a derogatory comment, so I’m curious :) I just happen to be a fan of Kerouac.
by deanmoriarty
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

So the base is $1.0M, the upside is $5.0M, and is the realistic downside $0 (or higher)? I would look at the potential upside and potential downside as a matter of percentage. If upside is 50% and downside is 10%, I would hold onto it. If upside is 10% and downside is 50%, I would take the $1.0M. O...
by deanmoriarty
Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

So you're making $350K now, have $600K aside from these shares, and the shares are currently worth perhaps $1.6M (at a $250M valuation, with perhaps a very slight markdown for less favorable liquidation preferences), but VC has offered $1.0M. And your expenses are low. The good news is, you're in q...
by deanmoriarty
Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

Thanks everyone for the replies so far, it's always interesting to hear the different opinions of this forum. Admittedly I think I have a high tolerance for risk when I think I have some sort of "advantage", especially in my career. For example, a few years ago, while all my coworkers (including me)...
by deanmoriarty
Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

If I had an opportunity to more than double the total value of my investments at such a young age I would do it in a heartbeat. You are trading something worth "nothing" with the potential to be worth "something" for a concrete and meaningful amount of money. My opinion is do it. Thanks for your op...
by deanmoriarty
Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Sell or keep shares of a private company?

Hello, I worked for a few years (left about a year ago) at a startup which is now valued $250M. I was an early employee with a significant share of common options, that I exercised upon leaving. The company is overall on an upwards trajectory, and I think the business and the market opportunity they...
by deanmoriarty
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evaluating new job offer
Replies: 40
Views: 3302

Re: Evaluating new job offer

I humbly think the advice given in this thread by some is extremely dangerous , it feels as if people are recommending the OP to stick all his savings 100% cash so that the nominal value will never go down. As a fellow Silicon Valley tech worker (early 30s), none of the people I know in the area wou...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

By the way, the average S&P return for the last 30 years is over 12%. https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/sp_500_returns/indicators The problem with 12% is that is not CAGR, but average return (unless again, I am missing something, in which case I apologize and I'd like to be corrected). If one ...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

I posed this question to myself and on bogleheads 2 years ago and this is what I found: 1. My mathematical models overwhelmingly favor stocks over real estate. I assumed: a) Investment of a 20% downpayment in a 100% stock portfolio. b) annual returns of 10% a year compounded. c) investment of each ...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

On the Internet (and in real life) there seems to be an overly amount of bias in both directions, to the point where it's difficult to trust any calculation done by any third party. Oh, I forgot to add, John T Reed has some good books and article on real estate. And he did an excellent job of demol...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

I've been doing landlord for quite a long time. I do not like BiggerPockets at all. I do not think it's the Boglehead-equivalent for real estate investing. I don't think such a forum exists. Thank you for your reply. I understand your opinion on Bigger Pockets. There is certainly more background no...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

Based on data from this site: https://www.reit.com/investing/index-data/annual-index-values-returns In the 20 years from 1997-2016, Residential REITs had a CAGR of 11.7%. Assuming all dividends were reinvested, a $100,000 investment in 1997 would've grown to ~$913,000 by the end of 2016 (not accoun...
by deanmoriarty
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

The actual return on a 70/30 portfolio have been over 8%. Using that number means a final value of over $1.1 million, double your result. My point is primarily that anytime you compound over 30 years, even very tiny differences in assumptions matter a lot. Your observation makes sense, although I s...
by deanmoriarty
Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

First, good original post and work. I do have some questions or holes though: 1. Are you assuming the property is always rented? 2. Property taxes, insurance, and larger repairs (roof, furnace, etc.) not to mention painting and updating to keep the property at market value? Still, good food for tho...
by deanmoriarty
Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5545

Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

Hello bogleheads I constantly keep reading on this forum that in the long term the stock market beats real estate ownership. I do not own any real estate but am thinking into buying some rental property in the future (a minor portion of my net worth, say 20%). On the Internet (and in real life) ther...
by deanmoriarty
Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Startup vs big company (financial equity at stake)
Replies: 57
Views: 3852

Re: Startup vs big company (financial equity at stake)

Update!!! The founders arranged for me a meeting with one investor of the company today. The investor offered (still just informal discussion so far) me the possibility of buying from me some portion (or all) of my 0.7% vested and exercised shares at a discount of the current market value. In other...
by deanmoriarty
Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 10145

Re: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

Once again thank you all for these high quality replies, it's so nice to hear other people's perspectives, especially when most folks in this forum embrace my same financial values. I admit if I relocated outside this area I would very likely meet people and potential partners who share my values, h...
by deanmoriarty
Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 10145

Re: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

One of these days, I need to learn from you how to milk my accent properly. Even though I've now been in the USA for a "majority" of my life, I "own" my accent, and it has not really helped. Today is the day! Take comedy classes where you live. I started out by taking improv comedy mostly for fun, ...
by deanmoriarty
Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 10145

Re: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

Thanks everyone for the overwhelming responses, wow! I really appreciate each comment I received, good food for thoughts! With respect to a few points raised: - Online Dating: yes, most of my dates are actually from online dating, this area is very dating-unfriendly (for men, at least), so online ca...
by deanmoriarty
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 10145

Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

Dear bogleheads, This might be a bit off topic but I thought I'd give it a shot, so moderators feel free to drop this message, no hard feelings :-) I am a single 31yo male living in the SF bay area (software engineer, relatively good income), and honestly I am having some trouble advancing in my per...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Taxes, Safe Harbor and AMT
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Re: Estimated Taxes, Safe Harbor and AMT

CA is very similar https://www.ftb.ca.gov/individuals/faq/ivr/208.shtml I assume you are withholding as opposed to paying estimated taxes? Thank you for the reference, in times of financial distress such as this one, kind bogleheads members helping out really make a difference! And yes, I am lettin...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Taxes, Safe Harbor and AMT
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Re: Estimated Taxes, Safe Harbor and AMT

amphora wrote:1.) You're following the IRS safe harbor ruled correctly. Don't worry. Just keep a flush savings account for the tax bill in April 2018.
Thank you for confirming the first point, appreciated!
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Taxes, Safe Harbor and AMT
Replies: 4
Views: 501

Estimated Taxes, Safe Harbor and AMT

Hello dear Bogleheads! I am facing a dilemma related to estimated taxes. This is some relevant data: - 2016 AGI: $193k - 2016 federal taxes (form 1040, line 63): $40k - 2016 CA taxes: $14k - Expected 2017 AGI: ~$240k - 2017 total taxes paid (through w2 withholding) as of 3/31/17: Federal $18k, CA $7...
by deanmoriarty
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Just wanted to thank once more everyone who took the time to read and reply to this thread, as usual it changed my perspective completely, in that I don't see it as a profitable investment at all anymore :-) If I find myself too bored, I might actually consider trying it at some point while treating...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

runner540 wrote: Glad it's been a good resource. Also, "motherly" advice - women know about this stuff too!
Totally! I'm not a native English speaker and in my country we use "fatherly advice" in a gender-neutral way, as opposed to "parental advice", so I apologize!
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Not opposed to an investor getting his hands dirty in a rental property, but what you are proposing is a much more passive investment, with much greater (undiversified) risk, and I don't see the reason to do this over a diversified portfolio including the REITs you already own. Thank you! As usual,...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

If I offended, which judging from the abrupt reply I may have, you have my apologies. I did not mean to. Your dilemma is real, but your proposed action in investing in a distant property market and managing by remote control is not a wise one. I truly didn't mean to reply abruptly as a way to show ...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

I think a previous poster put it brilliantly about you having a real estate itch to scratch. If you must scratch it, about the only non-local market I think you might consider is a ski condo within reasonable travel distance. A well located ski in/ski out condo managed for cash flow by a property m...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

First find a property manager. Work backwards from there. Thanks for your reply. As I said in my last response, after a few more days of studying I came to realize that's exactly accurate, you need to assemble your own team by finding a trusted property manager who will heavily screen tenants and t...
by deanmoriarty
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Would love to learn more about these meet ups offline and maybe bump into you. In my experience, you invest for appreciation or for cash flow. I have been successful with the former and would like to learn more about the latter. My concern about Memphis or Kansas is that a 30k investment is too lit...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

I know it's tough to buy rental property in California, but no way would I own another rental property in another state directly, no matter how "turnkey" it was. Thanks for your opinion! I'm a big follower of your blog and read many times about your preference for passive investments, although I do...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

I bought a $37K 3 bedroom/1 bath house ($700/month rent). The "deals" can be had, but you can't fall in love with any potential deal. The competition is fierce now. Not as much as it was 5+ years ago. Now every property that goes on the MLS that is $75K or below has a bidding war and everybody is s...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Most everyone with rental property should include an umbrella policy as "standard" insurance. $1M or net worth, minimum, whichever is greater. Though one could certainly argue differently depending upon what assets are protected, among other reasonings. Liability insurance is dirt cheap, I'd splurg...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

As a fellow happy renter, I totally understand not buying in your city. However, you may want to think through your reasoning: if property taxes would be a "drag" on an SFO property, wouldn't they also be a drag on a rental property? Well I was reasoning more in absolute terms. A 900k condo in Palo...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Not to discourage you but you asked about outlier downsides: A renter cooking meth in your home, this happened to a friend and was quite a mess Some other illegal activity takes place that create occupancy issues You get a professional tenant- ask at biggerpockets folks about those and consider sta...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Howdy Pardon the amateur analysis, but you may have what many of my colleagues and friends in the Bay Area admit to - an undiagnosed case of real estate fever. Thanks for your opinion. So are all your colleagues and friends in the bay area investing all their savings in the stock market or primary ...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

If it were so easy and lucrative, why would the management company help you buy something instead of buying it themselves? Like I said before, I thought that these management companies, knowing the local market, can put their capital to a much more profitable use by rehabbing those properties and s...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Going back to first principles, what is your goal? You have a good start of investment, great income, and a dynamic field of work. What drove you to look at investment properties in another state? So far, I cannot see what is attracting you to this field, seems like a mismatch. In a few years, if y...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

I wouldn't do it either. I know too many people who were CA based property investors who lost their shirts (I mean down to foreclosure of the personal residence and filing personal BK). The reasons were different but essentially the investors didn't know the area very well, costs were far more than...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

I live in the south, where rental property in my town is a feasible investment and own 4 rental properties. I don't bank on appreciation. In my area, you can buy a $40K house and in 10 years it be worth $45K. I do bank on cash flowing properties. Cash flow is king. :) Are you looking for investors ...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

It sounds like you want exposure to real estate, and a primary residence won't work for that. Why not a REIT? Why not buy something you can live in and take on a roommate for cash flow? I have 10% of my equity allocation already in Vanguard REITs indexes, but was looking to experiment with some dir...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Research it thoroughly. Do so with the intent to learn everything you can, not the intent to show it is a good idea. Acquire hard, real numbers. Enter investment property with knowledge and the right mindset and expectations. All that is more difficult to do from afar. Thank you for these final rec...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

My 4% return number was quick math assuming a 5% mortgage rate. With rates at 3.875% for owner occ you're not getting 4% on rental mortgage. It was also based on 25k initial. 20k down plus closing, etc. Those two simple differences change the returns significantly from your 10% to my generous 4. Ah...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

This second statement of yours suggests you're buying investment property because you cannot buy a home in CA. You are correct, I think things got mixed up. My original question is largely unrelated from the primary residence issue, and the issue with CA is just that it's impossible to have a cashf...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

this wouldn't happen to be home union would it? No. I am not at a point where I picked one, I just realized that there are many people on bigger pockets asking for honest turnkey providers recommendations in several stable markets, so, assuming most of the replies are genuine, I would be using that...
by deanmoriarty
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property
Replies: 76
Views: 6824

Re: Please talk me out of a turnkey rental property

Yes, buying one property is fundamentally different than buying one fund share of everything. However, buying one property in a nation where the individual failure rate is incredibly small is somewhat similar to buying an index and ensuring you buy an incredibly small portion of failed companies. T...