Search found 501 matches

by ThereAreNoGurus
Wed May 27, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5688
Views: 485804

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

oldzey wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 3:54 pm
Keep on soaring, U.S. stocks! :beer

"Ad Astra per Aspera"

Image
Has the dead cat morphed into a rocket? :D
by ThereAreNoGurus
Wed May 20, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Covid impact: CA license renewal and REAL ID
Replies: 13
Views: 1006

Re: Covid impact: CA license renewal and REAL ID

When I went in person to get my Real ID, the teller informed me it would be better to wait until my license had to be renewed. Since I had gone to all the trouble to make the appointment and sit in the waiting area for 30 minutes, I just went ahead and got it anyway. Glad I did, but I'm not traveli...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Wed May 20, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Covid impact: CA license renewal and REAL ID
Replies: 13
Views: 1006

Re: Covid impact: CA license renewal and REAL ID

When I went in person to get my Real ID, the teller informed me it would be better to wait until my license had to be renewed. Since I had gone to all the trouble to make the appointment and sit in the waiting area for 30 minutes, I just went ahead and got it anyway. Glad I did, but I'm not traveli...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun May 10, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296781

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I can definitely imagine that the institutional investors are gaming the stock market. In the sense that retail investors can’t really compete. The risk of getting duped is likely. Think about the tech and man (PhDs) power behind each trade. These people live and breathe each waking second making t...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri May 08, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: COVID-19 has revealed the stark deficiencies in long-term care facilities regardless of ratings.
Replies: 80
Views: 5325

Re: COVID-19 has revealed the stark deficiencies in long-term care facilities regardless of ratings.

There's so little information available to the public. States are burying this under so-called "medical privacy laws" which are designed to protect the privacy of individuals and not facilities. We only hear about the worst outbreaks probably because a private citizen or a staff member in the facil...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue May 05, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11144

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

many years ago I was offering advice/information to a friend about her investments. This fairholme fund was in her 401k and it was one of her favs. I asked her how she came upon that and she said her brother recommended it. i of course recommended simplicity (she had like 14 funds, lots of overlap,...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue May 05, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11144

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

I keep trying to convince my friends about the value of low-cost index investing. For the most part they are not really financially savvy and rarely even invest at all. But what little investing they have done the past 3 months has outperformed the market. This from people who know almost nothing a...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China to buy America's planes
Replies: 11
Views: 1226

Re: China to buy America's planes

Someone locked my China thread so I'm posting here. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3561886-united-airlines-sells-22-planes-to-to-bank-of-china-aviation Did you even read the article before you posted? This is a Singapore-based bank , not a Chinese bank . LOL... as another poster asked, what the heck...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China to buy America's planes
Replies: 11
Views: 1226

Re: China to buy America's planes

Someone locked my China thread so I'm posting here. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3561886-united-airlines-sells-22-planes-to-to-bank-of-china-aviation Did you even read the article before you posted? This is a Singapore-based bank, not a Chinese bank. LOL... as another poster asked, what the heck w...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31461

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

It doesn't mean eating Alpo under a bridge. Alpo is waaaaay too expensive to eat under a bridge: Purina ALPO Chop House in Savory Juices Adult Wet Dog Food - (12) 13.2 oz. Can = $9.60 20 years from now, that Alpo can will be $14-15 Even rich Bogleheads shouldn't eat Alpo. Tuna is cheaper. Maybe les...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72376

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

All the internet experts were so sure that CV19 was 30-40 times more lethal than the flu. More transmittable and more lethal! Antibody testing in Santa Clara county in CA - Stanford study: COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethalit...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advise what to do after receiving email from Hacker trying to extort money
Replies: 57
Views: 4487

Re: Advise what to do after receiving email from Hacker trying to extort money

This site has been posted on BH before: https://haveibeenpwned.com/ You can use it to see whether your email has been unintentionally exposed to the public. This is an example of a result returned from a breach: MGM Resorts: In July 2019, MGM Resorts discovered a data breach of one of their cloud se...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32135

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:00 pm
epicahab wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:55 pm
It's definitely interesting to watch what's going on. One plan of action would be to sit in cash and wait to see what happens, but I know that's verboten here.
What are you looking to see when you wait?
Funny.... seems like many cannot discern whether the cat is dead or alive.
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Growth (VWIGX) Outperformance
Replies: 28
Views: 1352

Re: International Growth (VWIGX) Outperformance

What makes this fund outperform since inception nearly 40 years ago and recently as well? Average return since inception is over 10%. I noticed yesterday, which is not atypical, it was up nearly 1% whereas all other VG international funds (except one) were down!? Like many people here, for internat...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296781

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The most up-to-date estimate by the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine suspects the death rate is a flu-like 0.1% to 0.39%. I couldn't find that claim on the website of the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine. I can't either actually. I did read something from them last week that said ...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296781

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The most up-to-date estimate by the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine suspects the death rate is a flu-like 0.1% to 0.39%. I couldn't find that claim on the website of the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine. Here's what I found. Whether it's valid or not is a different story. And the...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296781

Re: Coronavirus and the market

What happens to the market in an environment where a contagious disease that seems to have a 10% mortality rate left unchecked .... Source? 10% is what you’re seeing in Italy, France, Spain and other countries that didn’t see this coming. Countries that implemented social distancing much earlier ar...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying in September, think it will be safe?
Replies: 73
Views: 4165

Re: Flying in September, think it will be safe?

Morgan Stanley believes the second wave will hit sometime in November. Source? And since when was Morgan Stanley an expert in epidemiology? It's far too early to make any predictions about September. Haha... good point. Even epidemiologists can't accurately predict let alone Stanley. Their predicti...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ponzi Scheme?
Replies: 215
Views: 17348

Re: Ponzi Scheme?

SansaStark, I did a bit of research on the company that was previously mentioned in this thread. If this information is correct and this is the particular company being referred to, the owner/managing agent has been active for 20+ years and has 13 companies affiliated with his namesake, 9 of which ...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success
Replies: 55
Views: 3360

Re: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success

Does the book discuss immigration? Seems like it would have the affect of increasing output as immigration increases. Yes, the book has a section in it that concludes simply: As a tool for offsetting the drag on growth caused by population aging, a modest amount of additional immigration is the bes...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success
Replies: 55
Views: 3360

Re: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success

Does the book discuss immigration? Seems like it would have the affect of increasing output as immigration increases.
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success
Replies: 55
Views: 3360

Re: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success

For those who likely won't want to read the book, it's worth including in this thread all the factors the author concluded had negligible or zero impact on the U.S. growth slowdown in recent decades. These are his chapter headings and subheadings: Did the Government Cause the Slowdown? Did Inequali...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 92
Views: 6070

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

I realized the power of compounding, long before I had enough money to invest.

Seems strange to me that one wouldn't think about such things before investing.

Just thinking about it made me happy and gave me hope. :D
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Where I think that Ray's static asset model will thrive in the near future is on the reflation trade where we are close to now. The massive printing of money should lead to price appreciation of certain tangible assets. Wow.... thx! Sorry you did that on a cell phone... ouch! One last question... i...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Where I think that Ray's static asset model will thrive in the near future is on the reflation trade where we are close to now. The massive printing of money should lead to price appreciation of certain tangible assets. Wow.... thx! Sorry you did that on a cell phone... ouch! One last question... i...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Very sensationalist. Thanks. Just what the doctor ordered. Ray Dalio might be right. But his understanding of economics is terrible and I wouldn’t put any stock in his predictions. JT Can you explain what part of Dalio's understanding of economics is "terrible"? Whether I agree with his prescriptio...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Here is quote from Tony Robbins book (that I referred to above) regarding Dalio’s Pure Alpha strategy fund, “Launched in 1991, the strategy now has $80 billion and has produced a mind boggling 21% annualized return (before fees were taken out), and with relatively low risk.” It does say before fees...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Here is quote from Tony Robbins book (that I referred to above) regarding Dalio’s Pure Alpha strategy fund, “Launched in 1991, the strategy now has $80 billion and has produced a mind boggling 21% annualized return (before fees were taken out), and with relatively low risk.” It does say before fees...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

...1. Check out his track record (20% CAGR including 2008)... Where, exactly, would I look that up? Bridgewater runs (at least?) three hedge funds: Pure Alpha, All Weather, and Pure Alpha Major Markets. What is your 20% number? An equal-weight rebalanced portfolio of the three? Just one of them (an...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Little Book of Investing 10th ed Figure 7.1
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Re: Little Book of Investing 10th ed Figure 7.1

I don't have the 10th ed. version, but from your description, maybe it's the same as this figure 6.1 from the older book? https://i.postimg.cc/VsDMFnrv/lb61.png If so, the term "Real Return" implies it was adjusted for inflation. He takes the return of the raw index "gross return", then subtracts t...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone use Goldmoney?
Replies: 33
Views: 2739

Re: Does anyone use Goldmoney?

I have recently stumbled upon Goldmoney and have been intrigued by it's premise. Essentially allowing one to use gold as money instead of fiat currency. Of course one has to buy/sell (USD to gold/gold to USD) for a small fee at 0.5% but I find it a very interesting concept. So you have to pay half-...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone use Goldmoney?
Replies: 33
Views: 2739

Re: Does anyone use Goldmoney?

I have recently stumbled upon Goldmoney and have been intrigued by it's premise. Essentially allowing one to use gold as money instead of fiat currency. Of course one has to buy/sell (USD to gold/gold to USD) for a small fee at 0.5% but I find it a very interesting concept. So you have to pay half-...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiyosaki, Mr Rich Dad, Poor Dad: Buy Bitcoin, Silver, Gold
Replies: 7
Views: 1281

Re: Kiyosaki, Mr Rich Dad, Poor Dad: Buy Bitcoin, Silver, Gold

John T. Reed's analysis of Robert T. Kiyosaki's book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Part 1: https://johntreed.com/blogs/john-t-reed-s-real-estate-investment-blog/61651011-john-t-reeds-analysis-of-robert-t-kiyosakis-book-rich-dad-poor-dad-part-1 Rich Dad, Poor Dad is one of the dumbest financial advice books I ...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18803
Views: 2629012

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

He has kinda given up on it, but he is still a true believer (to this day) that aliens built the pyramids and Stonehenge, among other things, and that the two guys in England who admitted to making the first crop circles are liars; etc. etc. It's all the same mindset, apparently. :confused Well you...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 81
Views: 10720

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

Toons wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:07 pm
I Am Retired
70/30
Equity /Bond
:mrgreen:
Clearly then you are not logical. :mrgreen:
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5688
Views: 485804

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

more upsides are coming because of FOMO money. Or maybe just because everyone is seeing this for what it is: a short term aberration in the market due to the economy being "paused". Start preparing for new headlines along the lines of "This isn't going to be as bad as we thought", and cue the outra...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed could buy stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 1186

Re: Fed could buy stocks

Interesting article. I had no idea the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had intervened so heavily in the Jpnz equity market... yikes! The BOJ has been an aggressive buyer of equity funds, with its total holdings around $256 billion in U.S. dollar terms at the end of the fourth quarter in 2019. That represented a...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5688
Views: 485804

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

S&P futures up .6% at this point in time. That darn cat keeps bouncing. :greedy Maybe the reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated. :D Poor creature has definitely taken a lot of abuse. Last seen in a crater, I believe. Maybe it's a zombie cat. S&P futures up 1.3%, small cap over 2%.
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190818

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Interesting to call back all the terrible "it's like the seasonal flu" / "how many people die of the flu each year" takes now that Dr. Fauci is estimating 100-200K deaths. I'll take the bait. Asian Flu, 1957: Equivalent to 230,000 American deaths in 2020. Sadly, we've been there and done that. 1968...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296781

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If legit, this looks like it could bolster optimism (and the market): https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/ Coronavirus cure: French resea...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296781

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If legit, this looks like it could bolster optimism (and the market): https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/ Coronavirus cure: French resear...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190818

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

perspective. What is your source for this data? You can view per capita figures here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I did not look too closely at the graphs, but those figures appear to jive with the link above. What conclusions, if any, one wishes to derive from those graphs, is anoth...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 4945

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

Makes me wonder how he found it... haha... I'll take a closer look at Vanguard's site. Perhaps there is a "Research" or some such menu option available. I find stats on investor behavior occasionally interesting. It is probably from their website for advisors. There's a form on it to submit your em...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190818

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I've previously read that Taiwan are doing extraordinarily well at fighting the spread.) But Taiwan learned from the earlier SARS outbreak and was quite prepared. There's more to the story, of course, but I won't get into it here. However, yes, Taiwan is doing great... so far. Luck is also on their...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190818

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

We have officially breached the 100k marker. USA USA USA Awful. That being said, isn't the per capita number really what's needed for comparison? And is even that an accurate number given the fact that generally only symptomatic people get tested? And can we believe the numbers elsewhere? I am NOT ...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190818

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I've previously read that Taiwan are doing extraordinarily well at fighting the spread.) They most certainly are. I was there in February thru early March. I was debating whether to postpone my return to the U.S. In hindsight, I probably should have stayed. Most everybody wears masks. Many building...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190818

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:02 am
“and the masks would scare the patients off.”>>
Wow... what a punch line.

In Taiwan, long before this outbreak, doctors and nurses have been wearing masks.
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 4945

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

Thanks for posting that. Very interesting to me. How did you happen to run across it? Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) tweeted it this morning: https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1243592535588691972 His two books are on Taylor's list of recommended reading: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_Lari...
by ThereAreNoGurus
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 4945

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

Thanks for posting that. Very interesting to me.

How did you happen to run across it?
by ThereAreNoGurus
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63093

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

dead cat bounce Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D All depends on how high you drop it :D And it happens to land on a trampoline... sheesh... :o yeah or if the Fed and US Government catches the dead cat, quickly puts it into an oversized T-shirt cannon...