Search found 99 matches

by Confuscious
Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate your retirement number
Replies: 95
Views: 13154

Re: How to calculate your retirement number

the 25x expenses should be in less volatile accounts such as CDs and bonds correct? For example, I'm 100% equity allocation and the market double and triples in a few years, and now have 25x expenses it would not warrant retirement because if something double or triples in value quickly it can also ...
by Confuscious
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing
Replies: 104
Views: 7171

Re: Risk, Return, and Rebalancing

I too find "risk" very vague mainly due to volatility proposes. For example, a 100% equity allocation that gains 100% over 10 years then drops by 50% in the 11th year has a larger remainder balance than a 50/50 portfolio that gains 55% for the bond allocation and same 100% for equity follo...
by Confuscious
Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 7598

Re: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio

Lots of replies here point out that fact that having 50% in cash while the equity market goes up 5-10% a year is clearly missing out on the market gains. However, if one does not sell the gains and therefore realize the gains I'm not sure how one is missing out? For example, if someone buys a fund a...
by Confuscious
Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying shares vs buying outright
Replies: 3
Views: 1091

Buying shares vs buying outright

Amazon recently purchased Whole Foods for more than the current share price. It makes me wonder why people prefer to buy a business outright vs buying shares of a business. Warren Buffet and John Bogle have always said owning shares of 500 index is owning 500 shares of companies. Is owning shares of...
by Confuscious
Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where should I invest the home downpayment money I need in 5 years time
Replies: 9
Views: 1802

Re: Where should I invest the home downpayment money I need in 5 years time

Not trying to hijack thread but ... Does this same logic apply to needing money for any purpose? For example, when retired and will need x amount for living expenses in 5 years then x amount should be in CDs or bonds? What if the money is needed in 7 years or 10 years?
by Confuscious
Tue Nov 22, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account
Replies: 6
Views: 1051

Re: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account

Thanks live livesoft. I like your idea. When I sold some of the 500 index an alert said something like " this fund is subject to frequent trader policy which limits buying more of the fund either online or by phone for 30 days". I don't mind writing letters to purchase but the timing of pu...
by Confuscious
Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account
Replies: 6
Views: 1051

Re: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account

UPDATE & follow up question: This strategy appears easier said than done. I logged into vanguard saw 5k of long term capital gain in my 500 index so I transferred 5k into my bank using first in first out. Now I check my online statement and see about that of the 5k sold only 400 represents a lon...
by Confuscious
Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it a good time to buy Total Bond Index (SCHZ) ?
Replies: 18
Views: 2624

Re: Is it a good time to buy Total Bond Index (SCHZ) ?

I have recommended 20% bonds to people who are not extremely rich and people who do not have unusual circumstances. It is a a very personal decison. It many situations a 20% bond allocation may be approprIte. If 20% in bonds can translate into 20 years of residual living expenses this may be a good ...
by Confuscious
Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Measuring bond risk
Replies: 2
Views: 575

Measuring bond risk

Is there a good reason as to why vanguard total bond market fund has a "risk potential" of 2 which is the same "risk potential" as the vanguard intermediate term corporate fund? Do we know how Vanguard measures risk? It seems that the total bond market which contains over 50% tre...
by Confuscious
Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account
Replies: 6
Views: 1051

Re: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account

This is a good deal. You will be paying tax on the gain anyway, so you might as well pay it now in order to get tax-free growth in the future. For example, if you have $10,000 in a fund with a $5000 basis, you will lose at least 7.5% of the fund's value to taxes no matter when you sell. If you sell...
by Confuscious
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 103
Views: 19892

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

If you need the money within 10 years have it in bonds/CDs. If you don't need the money have it in stocks. This determines my asset allocation. That would suggest 100% stocks until 10 years before retirement moving to 66:34 by retirement. (Assuming a 30yr retirement period). Sounds reasonable thoug...
by Confuscious
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account
Replies: 6
Views: 1051

Selling taxable LTCG to fund retirement account

Does anyone do this? Does it make any kind of financial sense? Any previous discussions or articles on this? On the cover, it appears to be logical if ones long-term capital gains tax rate is lower than tax they would be paying on other income. Pay the tax on LTC at 0-15% and contribute paycheck to ...
by Confuscious
Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The role of Gold as portfolio insurance
Replies: 52
Views: 5974

Re: The role of Gold as portfolio insurance

I'll agree with people who say that owning a little gold as a hedge against Armageddon may be a good idea. Personally, I rather own guns and ammo for that contingency. But that's my preference. Rick Ferri Even without Armageddon happening, how about the diversification benefits? You've said you sho...
by Confuscious
Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 103
Views: 19892

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

If you need the money within 10 years have it in bonds/CDs. If you don't need the money have it in stocks.

This determines my asset allocation.
by Confuscious
Wed Sep 14, 2016 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The role of Gold as portfolio insurance
Replies: 52
Views: 5974

Re: The role of Gold as portfolio insurance

I don't understand how gold would work as insurance unless it was a huge portion of your portfolio. Say you had a million dollar retirement portfolio. If you had 10% of it in gold you'd need to own over 60 ounces of gold, with all the concomitant issues of storage, security and insurance. Yet in an...
by Confuscious
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 6705

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

if the consensus is that average returns during th next 10 years will be about half historical average it would seem that the 4% might fail. We talk about expected returns but I haven't read about expected losses. If the next 10 years have lower expected returns does that mean the volatility will al...
by Confuscious
Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for safe ETFs for 200K cash sitting in brokerage accounts.
Replies: 40
Views: 8058

Re: Looking for safe ETFs for 200K cash sitting in brokerage accounts.

Bonds offer less than a CD, not more. I own vanguard total bond fund VBMFX and it has, over the last few years returned around 4%. With about 2% of total return being paid as a monthly dividend. I am not too familiar with the workings of bonds however it appears this is a pretty secure investment. ...
by Confuscious
Sat Aug 06, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expected Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 4681

Re: Future Market Expected Returns

Thanks I've learned some new things from this thread. I'd like some more info on how expected returns correlate with expected losses. I've read a recent article : http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/27/the-new-era-of-low-stock-returns/ , where expected returns of 2. 5 % comes from 10 years averag...
by Confuscious
Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..
Replies: 16
Views: 2363

Re: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..

Thank you for the replies and links! I just finished reading How to Make Your Money Last by Jane Bryant Quinn and there is a passage on pages 230-231 talking about risk. She says risk questionnaires are bunk! She says consider whether you can afford the risks. For example someone with a pension, soc...
by Confuscious
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 16144

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

I'm guessing one reason is because other areas go up too. For example, look at the national basketball league. In the early stages of the game top players would make maybe 100k a year. Today, many guys who are not top players get paid 20 -40 million a year (including endorsements). That money gets s...
by Confuscious
Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..
Replies: 16
Views: 2363

Re: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..

The tool has suggested 50/50 stocks to bonds for someone who plans to withdraw 2% as well as for someone who plans to withdraw 4%. It would seem for risk to be equal the individual who plans to withdraw 2% should be 75/25 stocks to bonds. I don't quite follow the logic here, maybe you could elabora...
by Confuscious
Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..
Replies: 16
Views: 2363

Easy question on bond allocation at retirement..

Hello All, I'm trying to figure out how to determine the bond allocation of a portfolio and part of helping to make that determination would be getting some ideas as to how others are currently positioned. I've used the tool at : https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/tools/recommendation , however ...
by Confuscious
Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bogle?
Replies: 36
Views: 4648

Why Bogle?

Im curious why we choose to follow the Bogle ideals and to what extent we follow those ideals. is the Bogle ideology ever expanding and changing? Do we follow because we feel that is the best way to make money? How long have we been following? Is it just a fad that we will look back on in x years an...
by Confuscious
Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: update on Mr. Bogle`s investment thoughts
Replies: 37
Views: 6080

Re: update on Mr. Bogle`s investment thoughts

Not to answer for fidelio, but if they think the way I do about it... For the typical International holder having 20 - 30% of their equities going that way, how protected are they really from the US going the way of Japan if 70 - 80% of their equities are in the US. They are hurting just slightly l...
by Confuscious
Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SP 500 Index Fund vs Total Stock Market index fund
Replies: 55
Views: 28508

Re: SP 500 Index Fund vs Total Stock Market index fund

Another thing to consider is what the landscape will look like in 10-20 years, for example. Many consider the DJIA to the outdated but there are also many who consider it a great representation. With time, the 500 index may become outdated and new financial gurus will be touting a new index. I'm gue...
by Confuscious
Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SP 500 Index Fund vs Total Stock Market index fund
Replies: 55
Views: 28508

Re: SP 500 Index Fund vs Total Stock Market index fund

Just guessing here but could it be that in major economic downturns the small and mid caps may have higher unlikelihood of survival compared to the 500? maybe this extra risk is not worth it for the average investor.
by Confuscious
Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2378

Re: What is risk?

There is a consensus on climate change. There is a consensus on evolution. There is a consensus on the meaning of risk. On each of these subjects there are deniers, but nonetheless there is consensus on all three of these topics. Here is the consensus on risk. You can disagree with the consensus me...
by Confuscious
Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2378

Re: What is risk?

Risk is different things to different people Risk is different things to the same person at different times in their life. For example. I think the notion of volatility to be risk is absurd... however I have 30+ years of investing to do before retirement. I think less than 5 years from retirement, ...
by Confuscious
Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2378

Re: What is risk?

Based on the wiki : “Risk is the uncertainty that an investment will earn its expected rate of return.” [1] [note 1] What is the expected rate of return of the 500 index over the next year, 5 years, 10 etc.? it seems that the uncertainty the 500 index will earn its expected rate of return is very u...
by Confuscious
Wed Oct 07, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2378

Re: What is risk?

Geopolitical, taxflation, costs and inflation are my risk factors combined with striving to avoid a permanent loss (concentration risk). I address those risks by diversifying widely/globally, mindful of cost and taxes in assets that collectively have the potential to exceed inflation. I feel that I...
by Confuscious
Wed Oct 07, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2378

Re: What is risk?

Based on the wiki : “Risk is the uncertainty that an investment will earn its expected rate of return.” [1] [note 1] What is the expected rate of return of the 500 index over the next year, 5 years, 10 etc.? it seems that the uncertainty the 500 index will earn its expected rate of return is very un...
by Confuscious
Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2378

What is risk?

We've all been asked how much risk can we take.. What does that mean and how can we decide? I assume meaning will very from person to person as will how we decide how much to take. I'm looking for some ideas how each one of you look at risk given your situation and how the decision to take risk was ...
by Confuscious
Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How the Superwealthy Plan to Make Sure Their Kids Stay That Way
Replies: 20
Views: 5228

Re: How the Superwealthy Plan to Make Sure Their Kids Stay That Way

May be way off base here but this is a major reason why I am skeptical of growth in the next 25-50 years. The 30 rock quote hit it perfectly in that the 1st gen works their fingernails off, second gen goes to university and 3rd gen snowboards. In hindsight I would love to be an investor in American ...
by Confuscious
Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being too stingy for a high-income household?
Replies: 223
Views: 25322

Re: Am I being too stingy for a high-income household?

Will keep it short and sweet. IMO. Read the thread earlier today when there were many less replies and apologize if this if off topic or been addressed. I'll read replies and edit later when available. If I had your bankroll, I would consider myself stingy assuming I was not happy with the current s...
by Confuscious
Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did a dumb thing [lump summed into market after sitting on cash for years]
Replies: 111
Views: 16664

Re: Did a dumb thing [lump summed into market after sitting on cash for years]

It's not a dumb thing or smart thing. No one, w/ any 100% certainty, knew what would happen yesterday or tomorrow. Many people write assumption models to predict the market behaviors. More are wrong then right. Short term investing is a more risky gamble than a long term investment. The market Price...
by Confuscious
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you start investing in the Market?
Replies: 60
Views: 5390

When did you start investing in the Market?

Hi. I am curious to see when most people on this board began putting $ into stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. For those of you who began investing in the 50s, 60s or 70s, how did you start? I'm interested in the process because it seems like today there are tv commercials, websites, etc that make it...
by Confuscious
Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a condo in earthquake-prone area?
Replies: 27
Views: 6274

Re: Buying a condo in earthquake-prone area?

So the takeaway for me is to continue renting if possible, but if I must buy, get a newest condo that is cheap enough to not cause a financial disaster if it's totalled, and don't pay all cash for it. It is true the newer buildings are built to withstand a quake however that is all they are built t...
by Confuscious
Wed May 13, 2015 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 92
Views: 7910

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

How many people on this forum bought stocks in 1929 let alone know someone who bought them? I imagine it was difficult to do when compared to today. In addition the market was relatively new and shiny. It was unknown. Imagine people in 2080 p saying 2008 was a great time to buy bitcoin. It's not the...
by Confuscious
Wed May 13, 2015 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for input on investing a windfall
Replies: 14
Views: 2814

Re: Looking for input on investing a windfall

Condolences. Just a few thoughts: 1. There is no rush. 2. If you decide, for example a 50/50 allocation is reasonable, you can lump sum 25% into equities & don' feel like your are on the sidelines. You will be happy in a bull and have cash to add in a bear -dollar cost the other 25% over a time ...
by Confuscious
Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amelia Island vacation
Replies: 11
Views: 2121

Re: Amelia Island vacation

The plantation has great golf course. Right on the ocean.
by Confuscious
Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: selective bias
Replies: 6
Views: 1099

Re: selective bias

If we'd had 100 years of cyclic bear/bull markets (which you could say is just as likely as anything else) it probably wouldn't be Buffetts and Bogles we were talking about now - all the "best investors in the world" might be hedge fund managers .. Agreed. Very well said. Selective bias i...
by Confuscious
Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: selective bias
Replies: 6
Views: 1099

selective bias

If this has previously been discussed please link and lock thread. :sharebeer Do investment firms practice selective bias techniques? For example, is it common practice for a firm to provide 100k to 10 advisors and then promote the advisors with the best results? Surely a few advisors would beat the...
by Confuscious
Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Incorrect W2 and electronic tax filing
Replies: 5
Views: 789

Re: Incorrect W2 and electronic tax filing

4852 substitute for w2 for the incorrect w2. If the w2 was issued in error, simply leave the w2 income off the return. There is no need to attach a statement. Respond if you are sent a notice for the under reporter dept once everything is finalized. Generally income docs are not finalized in IRS sys...
by Confuscious
Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put money for house purchase 10 years out?
Replies: 9
Views: 2313

Re: Where to put money for house purchase 10 years out?

How much are you wanting for a down payment? If I can just flat out buy the house, I wouldn't complain. :?: I have been saving for a down payment and other house purchase expenses for a couple of years or so and have around $70k. If I make the employment switch, I'll likely continue to save an addi...
by Confuscious
Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Index-Fund Investors Smarter?"
Replies: 29
Views: 7831

Re: "Are Index-Fund Investors Smarter?"

Just some thoughts. None of the following are facts: We may have selective bias. Indexing seems relatively new. I imagine that very few people used index funds in the 70s and 80s. They were uncommon. I imagine investing in the stock market was less common then as it is today and people took what the...
by Confuscious
Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor
Replies: 26
Views: 5834

Re: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor

He favors holding enough cash to feel secure and hold the rest in the Vanguard S&P Index Fund for life
How much is enough cash to feel secure?
by Confuscious
Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put money for house purchase 10 years out?
Replies: 9
Views: 2313

Re: Where to put money for house purchase 10 years out?

How much are you wanting for a down payment? If you think you want 370k then I would suggest placing the 70k vtsax or similar. The rest in high interest savings account or the suggested Ibonds. If the market does well, the 70k in equities will make up for the expected low interested in savings. If t...
by Confuscious
Tue Mar 31, 2015 1:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Minimizing income taxes in retirement
Replies: 54
Views: 8064

Re: Minimizing income taxes in retirement

Talk with a Tax Planner.
by Confuscious
Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There a Next Jack Bogle
Replies: 37
Views: 5352

Re: Is There a Next Jack Bogle

There will be. Just like there will be the next Michael Jordan.

I would not be surprised that if, in the next 25-50 years, Berkshire Hathaway is a fledgling Vanguard.
by Confuscious
Wed Mar 18, 2015 1:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how often do you check performance?
Replies: 70
Views: 8384

Re: how often do you check performance?

My gf reminds me of my performance once.. I mean :oops:

I follow the market and read financial news. I check account once a month or so. I figure I need to get used to the information and learn to live with it. The more acclimated I become now the easier it will be in the future to stay the course.