Search found 42 matches

by sjwoo
Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

So bitcoin definitely is not like any country-backed currency since it has no country. It seems like it is more like gold in the way it acts, since gold itself really has very little applicable value; it is just a thing that lots of people have given worth to (personally, gold means nothing to me e...
by sjwoo
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

jalbert wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:28 am
BTC cannot simultaneously be a growth investment and a currency.
Just curious, why are these mutually exclusive for you? If one were to buy a currency of an emerging country, betting that they'll grow into a powerhouse, wouldn't that meet both criteria?
by sjwoo
Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned how fiat currency is all about the stability/guarantee of the government issuing the bills. Ergo, the reason why the US dollar retains good value is because those Franklins and Washingtons will get you goods and services. Which got me thinking. Right now, the...
by sjwoo
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Here you have something created out of thin air that is going straight up and that anyone and everyone can buy into and become rich. This literally sounds like etoys.com, CMGI, Rambus, etc. Some innate value, sure, but nowhere near the valuations they achieved. If bitcoin is going up, it's simply b...
by sjwoo
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

There is a lot of mania around bitcoin right now, and a lot of "pump and dump" going on. Be aware and watch for systemic risks. After reading this continuing thread, I now think you may have a point with this idea of contagion. On another thread about seeing market crashes ahead, lots of folks here...
by sjwoo
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

- when it crashes, it will cause a large drop in the s&p 500 I'm not sure I agree. So many people, in fact, I'd think the majority of investors, expect this currency to drop big time. If I were to hear tomorrow that bitcoin's are now worth $10, in just say, "Yup, we all knew where this was headed."...
by sjwoo
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19495

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

- when it crashes, it will cause a large drop in the s&p 500 I'm not sure I agree. So many people, in fact, I'd think the majority of investors, expect this currency to drop big time. If I were to hear tomorrow that bitcoin's are now worth $10, in just say, "Yup, we all knew where this was headed."...
by sjwoo
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 12007

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

If your withdrawal rate is 2% and your five-year laddered CDs are producing 2.5%, then I think it's more than reasonable to categorize the CDs as a positive income producing instrument, no? Of course, if inflation keeps rising and your CDs stay locked at 2.5%, you'll be in trouble, but don't CD rate...
by sjwoo
Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No CD Ladder ETFs?
Replies: 6
Views: 721

Re: Why No CD Ladder ETFs?

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies, folks. I'll look into Fidelity's brokered CD offerings since that's my broker and they actually have fairly competitive rates.
by sjwoo
Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No CD Ladder ETFs?
Replies: 6
Views: 721

Why No CD Ladder ETFs?

Apologies in advance if this is a spectacularly stupid question, but I just have to ask: Right now, you can find 5-year CDs that pay in the ballpark of 2.40%. If someone were to start a 5-year CD ladder, he could buy it and then do it again next year, at which point the rate might be a bit higher (t...
by sjwoo
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14014

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Thank you, Google (and Ben Carlson!): http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/11/how-bad-could-bond-market-losses-get/ the worst 12 month loss ever in bonds was -13.9% in 1974 In fact, if you look at the returns on 10 year treasuries from the time yields bottomed in the early-1940s until they peaked in...
by sjwoo
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14014

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

My question wasn't if bonds are dangerous IN GENERAL but if they are dangerous NOW. This sounds like TINA talk - there is no alternative. Both stocks and bonds are overvalued, so we have no choice but cash. If the purpose of buying bonds is to provide stability to a portfolio, i.e., it'll go down 1...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 5217

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

I knew nothing about investing or the stock market until around 1998. The first stock ever bought was Covad, which was a DSL service provider. When it went up by 25%, I sold it all and was extremely happy that I made money. Things were great for the next year...until they weren't! It's taken me almo...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 946

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Why does your chart compare SPY to AGG? It's a little like comparing a race car to a go cart. AGG returns NAV return Market Benchmark YTD +3.17% +3.17 +3.14% 5 Day -0.16% -0.22% -0.10% 4 Week -0.13% -0.18% -0.30% 13 Week -0.07% -0.13% +0.85% 6 Month +1.47% +1.42% +2.29% 52 Week +2.90% +2.59% +0.07%...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 946

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

I wouldn't say it's a bubble. I think most investors like me are a worried that the interest rates are historically low. If the federal reserve raises the discount rate interest, bond yields will increase and result with lower bond prices. The federal reserve has been slowly raising the discount ra...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 946

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Oh jeez, this is what I get for not using the search feature. Thanks.
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 946

Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Here's a 5-year chart courtesy Yahoo: https://image.ibb.co/drkfCm/spy.png Looks like since 2013, AGG has returned -2.47%. The dividend is probably around that, so break-even, unless you include inflation, in which case it's lost money. So why is there talk of a bond bubble? Or am I missing something?
by sjwoo
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 69
Views: 5067

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

I still see Evergreen Solar in my Roth account. It has a value of zero as the company went bankrupt. It wasn't much, like $120 of it when I bought it years ago, from the proceeds of some leftover dividend payment. "Why not just buy something that might really take off?" I told myself. Had I bought S...
by sjwoo
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8587

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

If I had $5 million, and all I needed on a yearly basis was $50K, and had no heirs to think about, then I wouldn't be in the stock market at all. What would be the point? Put it into a high-yield savings account and be happy. Unless, of course, yields fall less than 1%... I guess we gotta account fo...
by sjwoo
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 6440

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

This is why it's always worth it to have allocation in bonds, isn't it? Even if they are overvalued, when the proverbial you-know-what hits the fan, people will switch into bonds in droves. Even if their rates go down to 0.5%, because 0.5% is way, way better than -30% in stocks...
by sjwoo
Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I think it's a bad idea. Bonds are as "overvalued" as stocks are. You have this double whammy of very low yields and upward pressure on yields. Bonds could get a thumping that we haven't seen in a while. I'm not going to tactically put 70% of my portfolio in that. I'm well aware that someone is con...
by sjwoo
Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

My horizon is shorter than yours -- about 13 years. Unless you know the date of your death, you can't say this. If you are eyeing retirement in 13 years, your horizon is quite a bit longer than that. I suppose what I was saying was that in 13 years, I'll start withdrawing from the 401k, so at that ...
by sjwoo
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I just want to say how much I love you guys. Seriously. The conversation here has been so insightful. Sometimes I think it helps just to talk about what I might want to do -- akin to shooting blanks out of a gun. Sometimes I feel like I need to pull the trigger, and chatting about it with you folks ...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Are you saying you currently have 70/30? If so, the only way you'd suffer a 30% loss is if stocks declined by 45% (or more). Not to say we couldn't suffer a 50% decline at some point in the future, but look at what it took for those kinds of declines to occur in the past: 1. Great Depression 2. 197...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

The question is, do I wait until the CAPE hits 35? Let it ride? More than ever, investing feels like the casino, which is never a good thing... This quote from "Nisiprius" comes to mind: d) The stock market is risky for everybody else, but not for me, because I can do something clever and get the r...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

It feels like a casino to you because you are market timing. It does not feel like a casino to me because I choose not to market time. I'm not concerned with what the market does tomorrow, next week, month, year or decade. My time horizon is at least 20-25 years away (and even then I'll still have ...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 11429

Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Reading the Collaborative Fund Bubble article (from https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=221821) and also the latest Irrelevant Investor article (from http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/06/24/this-is-your-nightmare-scenario/) has me thinking. Here's where the CAPE looks like righ...
by sjwoo
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Markets as Banks
Replies: 3
Views: 367

Asset Markets as Banks

I have a feeling more than a few smart people here read this blog already, but if you don't, it's totally worth your time: m This writer doesn't post that frequently, but when he/she does, it's always interesting. Like this one yesterday: m If we’re living in a low-rate world, and our only option ot...
by sjwoo
Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Phyisical Stock Certificate [how to turn it in]
Replies: 1
Views: 307

Re: Phyisical Stock Certificate [how to turn it in]

I'd start out with Vanguard, since they are the ones who are holding it. Word of caution -- if you have moved since 2001 to a new address, your stocks may be "lost". After a few undelivered dividend checks, my transfer agent turned the shares over to New Jersey. I recover them, but it was ...
by sjwoo
Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?
Replies: 28
Views: 1958

Re: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?

I appreciate all the responses here -- yes, holding onto KO and PEP has been a challenge! The dividends help, and actually, PEP hasn't been too terrible. In fact, I think PEP has outperformed SPY in the time I've had it (since 12/2011). I believe PerfCharts include reinvested dividends. http://i.img...
by sjwoo
Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?
Replies: 28
Views: 1958

Re: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?

"in your brokerage account" What happens to the dividend income? Can you use it to buy,say,shares of a Vanguard index fund? Any other fund that appeals to you? If so,doing that will very slowly transform your portfolio so as less likely to be smashed by single stock failure. Is the broker...
by sjwoo
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?
Replies: 28
Views: 1958

Re: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?

I had a similar situation. Immediately sell the losers and harvest the losses. Eventually the market will crash and the cost of unloading the ones that are winners will be much lower. That might be a good opportunity. I dumped some in 2009. The rest I have been donating to our Donor Advised Fund wh...
by sjwoo
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?
Replies: 28
Views: 1958

Re: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?

David Jay wrote:Just to confirm, none of these are held in retirement accounts?


Confirmed, all brokerage, no tax shelter of any kind. :(
by sjwoo
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?
Replies: 28
Views: 1958

How to Go from Buy-and-Holder of Individual Stocks to a Boglehead?

As the kids say nowadays, "asking for a friend"... Let's say you have a portfolio full of blue-chip stocks in your brokerage account. Like AXP, JNJ, KO, PEP, etc. Some losers, too, of course, non-blue chip bets like M and KMI that haven't panned out. But if this person were to sell everyth...
by sjwoo
Tue Dec 29, 2015 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Eaton Vance's ETV -- downsides?
Replies: 5
Views: 641

Re: Eaton Vance's ETV -- downsides?

Thanks, lack_ey. ETV, at least at the moment, is skewered toward big, popular tech (Amazon, Google, Apple, etc.). They tend to be more volatile, so in a flat market, the covered calls can return higher. You are absolutely right -- I could do what ETV does, but not to their degree of diversification....
by sjwoo
Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Eaton Vance's ETV -- downsides?
Replies: 5
Views: 641

Re: Eaton Vance's ETV -- downsides?

Thanks for the reply, folks. That Morningstar link is totally awesome -- ETV is actually higher for the 10-year return but not for the 3 and 5. So it's a comparable strategy. The majority of my holdings are index funds, but this seems like not a bad one to have as a portion.
by sjwoo
Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Eaton Vance's ETV -- downsides?
Replies: 5
Views: 641

Eaton Vance's ETV -- downsides?

I've recently come across something that seems too good to be true: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund m m{%22range%22:%22max%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true} Looking at this Yahoo chart, if one were to have bought into this closed-end fund at its inception, about $20 a share back...
by sjwoo
Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3756

Re: What would you do with cash right now?

While I completely agree with the long term buy and hold strategy... for those of you who are chastising the OP as a "market timer"... if you had a significant amount of new cash recently inherited or whatever... would you be a buyer of the TSM today and jump all in? Thanks, arcticman -- ...
by sjwoo
Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3756

Re: What would you do with cash right now?

Hi sjwoo! Welcome to the boards. I'm sorry that you were immediately attacked by an angry school of anti-market timing piranhas. I'm glad they haven't scared you off. I think you have a very legitimate question. Like it or not, we humans react differently to starting with 100,000 and losing 20,000 ...
by sjwoo
Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3756

Re: What would you do with cash right now?

The last paragraph of your second post indicates you already have a plan. I'm a little puzzled as to why you are asking people who practice the boglehead philosophy for advice, since that clearly is not your investment philosophy. Perhaps you thought it would be entertaining to stir things up? I ge...
by sjwoo
Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3756

Re: What would you do with cash right now?

Folks, I really appreciate all of your comments -- snarky as they be in some cases! But yes, you are absolutely correct, by saying that I'm not a market timer AND saying that I'm waiting for the right moment (in the very same post, no less) -- yeah, I sort of walked into that one, didn't I? And I re...
by sjwoo
Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3756

What would you do with cash right now?

I've been in the market for the last fifteen years, and whatever new money I'm bringing into my own account is already in the form of a stock (company stock plan). So basically, I'm always in the market. So here's my current conundrum: I'm trying to help some members of my family invest some money. ...