Search found 66 matches

by sjwoo
Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Here are some scenarios where trend following is difficult: 1) You are on vacation in a foreign country and the end of month sell/buy signal hits. To be consistent you must act even from a different time zone. 2) You have 3 accounts (Roth IRA, traditional IRA, taxable) with multiple funds in each, ...
by sjwoo
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

It would probably help you visualize this better if we lopped off the last 19 years of results in your link. Like so. This model began trading in 1988. At the end of the first 12 years, you had nothing to show for it. It had underperformed buying and holding an S&P index fund for those 12 years by ...
by sjwoo
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I mean how would you have handled from 1988-2000 when everyone was making a ton more money than you did. You would have ~50k and they would have 80k. This is a fair point, but I must also say, as someone who did go through this ridiculous euphoric period (eToys! CMGI! JDSU!), during the runup of 19...
by sjwoo
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Actually, I think this is the PV link I should be using: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=5&startYear=1988&endYear=2018&initialAmount=10000&singleAbsoluteMomentum=false&volatilityTarget=9.0&downsideVolatility=false&outOfMarketAssetType=...
by sjwoo
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I don't understand something here...several people have mentioned "selling at a loss" with this strategy. If I have a buy and hold port at 60/40, and stocks tank -35% while bonds go down -15%, am I not "selling at a loss" when I rebalance (i.e., I'm selling bonds at a loss to buy stocks)? Keep in m...
by sjwoo
Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

I don't know, but one hopeful behavioral explanation would be that the strategy often mandates selling at a loss, which is painful and is normally advised against. Similarly, it advocates remaining invested in long bull markets that many think are "overdue for a correction" until they actually do s...
by sjwoo
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

sjwoo, << What's a safer way of making your money last for the next 40 years, 60/40 or trend/momentum following? >> I think you are asking the wrong question. The most relevant and important question is the size of your portfolio in relation to your required expense. If it is 50 times aka 2% withdr...
by sjwoo
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

This one compares buy-and-hold of VFINX (Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund) from 1985 through last month. A 10 month moving average is used (basically a ~210 day moving average with no more than one trade per month). https://i.imgur.com/LXkRUvU.jpg You can see that timing underperformed buy-and-hold fo...
by sjwoo
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

That said, I still agree with The hard part is developing a strategy that will work in the future. There is no strategy that is guaranteed to work in the future. Even if we have decent evidence that it really was a thing in the past (not just data mining), it's well possible that the market simply ...
by sjwoo
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

This site gives an excellent and very detailed overview of trend following. From that site, here's an excellent explanation of why many trend following proponents have had poor performance: Looking at (2) specifically, why do the most vocal practitioners of market timing tend to perform poorly as i...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3230

"Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

One of my favorite investment bloggers is Michael Batnick. He wrote this today: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/11/09/learning-the-wrong-lessons/ Here's one part of it: "This chart shows a very simple strategy of buying the Nikkei when it has a monthly close above a moving average and selling...
by sjwoo
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Both Stocks and Bonds Fall, Where Does the Money Go?
Replies: 12
Views: 1827

When Both Stocks and Bonds Fall, Where Does the Money Go?

One thing I can't quite understand on a day like yesterday is that when there's a significant amount of stock selling, the 10-year bond yield also rose. Which means there were more people selling 10-year bonds than buying, right? Or do bond yields work in a different way than my simple-minded supply...
by sjwoo
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14774

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

I just recently heard a story about Sears houses on the 99% Invisible podcast:

https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/ ... -the-mail/

They even sold houses at one point! How crazy is that. And now the company is almost ready to be a memory.
by sjwoo
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pacer Wealthshield ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 959

Re: Pacer Wealthshield ETF

For example, maybe we should address more the prospects of acting as "a possible method of reducing volatility while providing reasonable growth" as was actually asked. Though actually, I would want to know how "reasonable growth" might be defined. edit: on second thought, if that signal is unknown...
by sjwoo
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pacer Wealthshield ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 959

Pacer Wealthshield ETF

I was reading up about trend following as a possible method of reducing volatility while providing reasonable growth when I came across this ETF: https://www.paceretfs.com/products/pws PACER WEALTHSHIELD ETF The Pacer WealthShield ETF is an exchange traded fund that seeks to track the total return p...
by sjwoo
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1749

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Yes, but what would ever make you think that bonds have the magnitude of downside that stocks have when such an idea is absurd. It is not the timing but the fact that stocks can fall by tens of percents when bonds can fall by percents. I didn't think I was suggesting that bonds have similar downsid...
by sjwoo
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1749

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

They couldn't have prevented a crushing loss unless you were holding five times as much Treasuries as stocks, i.e. your stock allocation was lower than 17/83 . Holy crap -- this I did not know. 17/83...that's a ratio I can't imagine many people have. OK -- I'll just buckle my seatbelt and turn off ...
by sjwoo
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1749

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Seems like what we have now (and perhaps for the near future, say, a couple of years) with bonds is lower downside than stocks This presumption is absurd. Where did you get it? Ummm...okay, you got me, no excuses, you caught me red handed in the "timing" jar. :wink: I don't think it's unreasonable ...
by sjwoo
Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1749

When Stocks and Bonds Fall

From http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/02/22/when-stocks-and-bonds-fall/: It’s true, bonds might not help you in the short run when stocks fall. Now what do we do with this information? Investors have a few options. First and foremost, you can add assets outside the United States to your portfol...
by sjwoo
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7841
Views: 1609880

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will. I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week. EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like...
by sjwoo
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7841
Views: 1609880

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Goodbye, unrealized gains, it was nice knowing you!

Now I don't feel too stupid for holding those bond funds. Asset allocation, I love you. ;-)
by sjwoo
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Household Assets 1972-1982
Replies: 10
Views: 1976

Re: Household Assets 1972-1982

Just read this: http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm So during the 1970s, the real return for the SP500 was -1.4%. Wow. During the 2000s, it was -3.4%. Not surprising since that encompasses both humongous bubble bursts. Now looking at this: http://www.businessi...
by sjwoo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 2080

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

The 2nd figure shows that pension fund allocation to equities has been high since 1998, yet we had two great crashes after 1998. These are not incongruous in the context of the post, from my reading. There is not an attempt to explain pension fund asset allocation as the driver of multiple expansio...
by sjwoo
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 2080

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

I love this guy's writing -- I wish he would write more frequently, but then again, usually the pieces are really long, so they're well thought-out and researched than most blog posts. They're more like academic works. Looking at that first graph, it looks like pension funds have held about 70% equi...
by sjwoo
Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

So bitcoin definitely is not like any country-backed currency since it has no country. It seems like it is more like gold in the way it acts, since gold itself really has very little applicable value; it is just a thing that lots of people have given worth to (personally, gold means nothing to me e...
by sjwoo
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

jalbert wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:28 am
BTC cannot simultaneously be a growth investment and a currency.
Just curious, why are these mutually exclusive for you? If one were to buy a currency of an emerging country, betting that they'll grow into a powerhouse, wouldn't that meet both criteria?
by sjwoo
Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned how fiat currency is all about the stability/guarantee of the government issuing the bills. Ergo, the reason why the US dollar retains good value is because those Franklins and Washingtons will get you goods and services. Which got me thinking. Right now, the...
by sjwoo
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Here you have something created out of thin air that is going straight up and that anyone and everyone can buy into and become rich. This literally sounds like etoys.com, CMGI, Rambus, etc. Some innate value, sure, but nowhere near the valuations they achieved. If bitcoin is going up, it's simply b...
by sjwoo
Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

There is a lot of mania around bitcoin right now, and a lot of "pump and dump" going on. Be aware and watch for systemic risks. After reading this continuing thread, I now think you may have a point with this idea of contagion. On another thread about seeing market crashes ahead, lots of folks here...
by sjwoo
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

- when it crashes, it will cause a large drop in the s&p 500 I'm not sure I agree. So many people, in fact, I'd think the majority of investors, expect this currency to drop big time. If I were to hear tomorrow that bitcoin's are now worth $10, in just say, "Yup, we all knew where this was headed."...
by sjwoo
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24810

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

- when it crashes, it will cause a large drop in the s&p 500 I'm not sure I agree. So many people, in fact, I'd think the majority of investors, expect this currency to drop big time. If I were to hear tomorrow that bitcoin's are now worth $10, in just say, "Yup, we all knew where this was headed."...
by sjwoo
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 142
Views: 15601

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

If your withdrawal rate is 2% and your five-year laddered CDs are producing 2.5%, then I think it's more than reasonable to categorize the CDs as a positive income producing instrument, no? Of course, if inflation keeps rising and your CDs stay locked at 2.5%, you'll be in trouble, but don't CD rate...
by sjwoo
Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No CD Ladder ETFs?
Replies: 6
Views: 1465

Re: Why No CD Ladder ETFs?

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies, folks. I'll look into Fidelity's brokered CD offerings since that's my broker and they actually have fairly competitive rates.
by sjwoo
Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No CD Ladder ETFs?
Replies: 6
Views: 1465

Why No CD Ladder ETFs?

Apologies in advance if this is a spectacularly stupid question, but I just have to ask: Right now, you can find 5-year CDs that pay in the ballpark of 2.40%. If someone were to start a 5-year CD ladder, he could buy it and then do it again next year, at which point the rate might be a bit higher (t...
by sjwoo
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 22072

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Thank you, Google (and Ben Carlson!): http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/11/how-bad-could-bond-market-losses-get/ the worst 12 month loss ever in bonds was -13.9% in 1974 In fact, if you look at the returns on 10 year treasuries from the time yields bottomed in the early-1940s until they peaked in...
by sjwoo
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 22072

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

My question wasn't if bonds are dangerous IN GENERAL but if they are dangerous NOW. This sounds like TINA talk - there is no alternative. Both stocks and bonds are overvalued, so we have no choice but cash. If the purpose of buying bonds is to provide stability to a portfolio, i.e., it'll go down 1...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 7108

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

I knew nothing about investing or the stock market until around 1998. The first stock ever bought was Covad, which was a DSL service provider. When it went up by 25%, I sold it all and was extremely happy that I made money. Things were great for the next year...until they weren't! It's taken me almo...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 1142

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Why does your chart compare SPY to AGG? It's a little like comparing a race car to a go cart. AGG returns NAV return Market Benchmark YTD +3.17% +3.17 +3.14% 5 Day -0.16% -0.22% -0.10% 4 Week -0.13% -0.18% -0.30% 13 Week -0.07% -0.13% +0.85% 6 Month +1.47% +1.42% +2.29% 52 Week +2.90% +2.59% +0.07%...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 1142

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

I wouldn't say it's a bubble. I think most investors like me are a worried that the interest rates are historically low. If the federal reserve raises the discount rate interest, bond yields will increase and result with lower bond prices. The federal reserve has been slowly raising the discount ra...
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 1142

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Oh jeez, this is what I get for not using the search feature. Thanks.
by sjwoo
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 1142

Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Here's a 5-year chart courtesy Yahoo: https://image.ibb.co/drkfCm/spy.png Looks like since 2013, AGG has returned -2.47%. The dividend is probably around that, so break-even, unless you include inflation, in which case it's lost money. So why is there talk of a bond bubble? Or am I missing something?
by sjwoo
Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 69
Views: 6143

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

I still see Evergreen Solar in my Roth account. It has a value of zero as the company went bankrupt. It wasn't much, like $120 of it when I bought it years ago, from the proceeds of some leftover dividend payment. "Why not just buy something that might really take off?" I told myself. Had I bought S...
by sjwoo
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 10109

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

If I had $5 million, and all I needed on a yearly basis was $50K, and had no heirs to think about, then I wouldn't be in the stock market at all. What would be the point? Put it into a high-yield savings account and be happy. Unless, of course, yields fall less than 1%... I guess we gotta account fo...
by sjwoo
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 7268

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

This is why it's always worth it to have allocation in bonds, isn't it? Even if they are overvalued, when the proverbial you-know-what hits the fan, people will switch into bonds in droves. Even if their rates go down to 0.5%, because 0.5% is way, way better than -30% in stocks...
by sjwoo
Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 14252

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I think it's a bad idea. Bonds are as "overvalued" as stocks are. You have this double whammy of very low yields and upward pressure on yields. Bonds could get a thumping that we haven't seen in a while. I'm not going to tactically put 70% of my portfolio in that. I'm well aware that someone is con...
by sjwoo
Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 14252

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

My horizon is shorter than yours -- about 13 years. Unless you know the date of your death, you can't say this. If you are eyeing retirement in 13 years, your horizon is quite a bit longer than that. I suppose what I was saying was that in 13 years, I'll start withdrawing from the 401k, so at that ...
by sjwoo
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 14252

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I just want to say how much I love you guys. Seriously. The conversation here has been so insightful. Sometimes I think it helps just to talk about what I might want to do -- akin to shooting blanks out of a gun. Sometimes I feel like I need to pull the trigger, and chatting about it with you folks ...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 14252

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Are you saying you currently have 70/30? If so, the only way you'd suffer a 30% loss is if stocks declined by 45% (or more). Not to say we couldn't suffer a 50% decline at some point in the future, but look at what it took for those kinds of declines to occur in the past: 1. Great Depression 2. 197...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 14252

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

The question is, do I wait until the CAPE hits 35? Let it ride? More than ever, investing feels like the casino, which is never a good thing... This quote from "Nisiprius" comes to mind: d) The stock market is risky for everybody else, but not for me, because I can do something clever and get the r...
by sjwoo
Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 14252

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

It feels like a casino to you because you are market timing. It does not feel like a casino to me because I choose not to market time. I'm not concerned with what the market does tomorrow, next week, month, year or decade. My time horizon is at least 20-25 years away (and even then I'll still have ...