Search found 7500 matches

by grok87
Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

I would be buying tens or even sevens with the intention of rolling them when they mature to build my 30 year LMP. Taking 30 years of term risk for less than 1% is iffy. In a LMP for real liabilities, you would be matching the duration of TIPs holdings to the duration of real liabilities, and you w...
by grok87
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Here is some color on the auction " Tsy solid $5B 30Y TIPS reopen: 0.908% rate, good 76.4% indirects, 0.50% directs, leaving only a small 23.1% portion for dealers. " To translate "Indirects" = foreign central banks and large us institutional investors (endowments, pension plans, etc) Directs= you a...
by grok87
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Doc wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:39 pm
Grok, are you buying several times a year. That would be an accounting nightmare in a taxable account. Trusting our brokers to get the OID correct is scary.
Thanks

No these are in my tax sheltered retirement accounts.
by grok87
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Last chance to place orders before tomorrow's auction.
Current secondary yield is 0.91% so I'm predicting 0.90% at auction.
by grok87
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Secondary yield now at 0.88% Up by 2 bps. :shock: I would like to see the thirty at 2% minimum. Up by at least 100 + bps. Repeating question. With current real yields way below historical levels why would you commit for 30 years. Why not by a ten now and roll it into a twenty when it matures. Locki...
by grok87
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Please do the same chart but include the yields from 1997-1998. The early TIPS data is problematic because of their newness and low float. That's why I used only ten years. Here's my attempt to calculate "TIPS" yields back before TIPS actually existed. I subtracted the annualized "Personalized Cons...
by grok87
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation for the "Risk" part of your portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 646

Re: Allocation for the "Risk" part of your portfolio

For those of you in or near retirement and set with the "safety" portion of your nest egg (20x annual expenses in stable savings/investments), how are you allocating the growth (i.e., at risk) portion? I am currently at 90:10, but wondering if this might be too aggressive per "conventional" wisdom....
by grok87
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

TIPS- get them while they're hot! We have a different definition of "hot". https://s1.postimg.org/6j5u44vt5r/TIPS_Then_and_Now_Capture.jpg Please do the same chart but include the yields from 1997-1998. Then, imagine it's 2007, and you're trying to decide whether to buy LT TIPS when yields were rou...
by grok87
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Secondary yield now at 0.88% Up by 2 bps. :shock: I would like to see the thirty at 2% minimum. Up by at least 100 + bps. Repeating question. With current real yields way below historical levels why would you commit for 30 years. Why not by a ten now and roll it into a twenty when it matures. Locki...
by grok87
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

I am very much attracted to both TIPS (inside a retirement account, especially Roth IRA, to avoid the "tax on phantom interest" aspect) and I Bonds (outside retirement accounts). But I must count myself among those who cannot muster enthusiasm for long-term TIPS at such low real rates. I Bonds are ...
by grok87
Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 175
Views: 18538

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

High yield is correlated with equities, so it doesn't provide the same diversification benefit. My favorite remains QSPIX with its zero beta exposure (equal long and short), positive factor exposure, multi-asset classes and daily liquidity. The interval nature of LENDX and SRRIX along with difficul...
by grok87
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 39
Views: 3460

30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Just a heads up that the next 30 year TIPS auction is this thursday. Current yield on the secondary market is 0.87% and I am expecting the auction yield to be slightly lower at 0.86%. For reference, on average TIPs auction yields have tended to come in a bit *higher* than where the secondary market ...
by grok87
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6915

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

US stocks command a higher P/E ratio partly because US law on contracts and securities is stronger and more solid than in emerging market economies. This doesn't take into account the discrepancy between the US and Europe/Japan. One can argue that Europe and Japan are experiencing secular stagnatio...
by grok87
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

The size of tips markets is $1.7 Trillion ... At $4 Trillion in assets Vanguard is, IMHO, increasingly being forced in both its investing actions and its general investing guidance toward the broadest possible of world assets ... if they told everyone that they should have 10% in TIPs, that is pote...
by grok87
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

TIPS are too expensive in the sense that the yield is too low and you have to invest too much for the income provided. Actually the point is arguable. If all your TIPS yield 0.00% real, then you get a withdrawal rate of 3.33%. At 1.00% real you get 3.8%. All this being a 30 year LMP. It is not nece...
by grok87
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAII Article: Target Wealth A Better Bet For Achieving Wealth Goals
Replies: 13
Views: 2092

Re: AAII Article: Target Wealth A Better Bet For Achieving Wealth Goals

Here's my simple glide path formula: Current Portfolio Value/Target Portfolio Value = % of Target % of Target * Desired Bond Allocation % at Retirement = Current % Bonds Thanks. I think that's a good rule of thumb. So trying to make this concrete with an example: Target retirement income = $100 k T...
by grok87
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

A few thoughts on Vanguard's view of TIPS: 1) TIPS Market size: The size of tips markets is $1.7 Trillion =about 1/20th of the Aggregate Bond Market (i.e. Vanguard Bond Market index which does not include TIPs). See here for a reference- page 7. https://www.nuveen.com/Home/Documents/Default.aspx?fi...
by grok87
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

1) TIPS Market size: The size of tips markets is $1.7 Trillion =about 1/20th of the Aggregate Bond Market (i.e. Vanguard Bond Market index which does not include TIPs). See here for a reference- page 7. https://www.nuveen.com/Home/Documents/Default.aspx?fileId=56370 At $4 Trillion in assets Vanguar...
by grok87
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

The size of tips markets is $1.7 Trillion ... At $4 Trillion in assets Vanguard is, IMHO, increasingly being forced in both its investing actions and its general investing guidance toward the broadest possible of world assets ... if they told everyone that they should have 10% in TIPs, that is pote...
by grok87
Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

I have half of my bond holdings in TIPS (as suggested by David Swensen.) However, I have read many articles questioning the usefulness and capabilities of TIPS. And I have been concerned about having such a large stake in my portfolio. Furthermore, Vanguard just sent out an email that concludes: "W...
by grok87
Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:02 pm

With respect to my portfolio and beyond, I view my role as being a risk manager, not a return maximizer.

PJW
Amen to that.
by grok87
Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

TIPS are less risky than nominal Treasuries of the same duration: specifically, they avoid inflation risk. So according to MPT, the market should price them to have a lower expected return in the long run. So investing in TIPS, all else being equal, is likely to decrease your portfolio value down t...
by grok87
Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

I got the impression from talking with a Vanguard Personal advisory rep awhile back that they are suggesting more corporate, intermediate, and total bond funds in an allocation appropriate for you and not to include TIPS, but to let your stock portfolio be the inflation hedge. Right. Are TIPS no lo...
by grok87
Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7019

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

I have half of my bond holdings in TIPS (as suggested by David Swensen.) However, I have read many articles questioning the usefulness and capabilities of TIPS. And I have been concerned about having such a large stake in my portfolio. Furthermore, Vanguard just sent out an email that concludes: "W...
by grok87
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAII Article: Target Wealth A Better Bet For Achieving Wealth Goals
Replies: 13
Views: 2092

Re: AAII Article: Target Wealth A Better Bet For Achieving Wealth Goals

Here's my simple glide path formula: Current Portfolio Value/Target Portfolio Value = % of Target % of Target * Desired Bond Allocation % at Retirement = Current % Bonds Thanks. I think that's a good rule of thumb. So trying to make this concrete with an example: Target retirement income = $100 k T...
by grok87
Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving from Northern California to New Ipswich New Hampshire.
Replies: 10
Views: 1427

Re: Moving from Northern California to New Ipswich New Hampshire.

I would second the advice to rent first

Nh has been hit pretty hard by the opiod epidemic

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews ... ontext=amp
by grok87
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension: Lumpsum or leave it for retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1873

Re: Pension: Lumpsum or leave it for retirement

How much is $750 /mo. likely to mean to you in 20 years? I'm guessing not much. I would take the lump sum and invest per my IPS. Ralph Well i also have a small deferred pension from a former employer so let me give another perspective. I don't have a pension coming to me from my current employer wh...
by grok87
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension: Lumpsum or leave it for retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1873

Re: Pension: Lumpsum or leave it for retirement

Another evaluation method would be to compare the $750 monthly amount to that of a commercial deferred annuity. For example, ImmediateAnnuities.com shows $40,000 buying a $463 monthly annuity beginning in 20 years for a 45-year old male. The pension option is clearly better. #Cruncher has a spreads...
by grok87
Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension: Lumpsum or leave it for retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1873

Re: Pension: Lumpsum or leave it for retirement

I left a company about 5 years ago, but I had enough service that I got vested into pension plan when I left. Based on their calculation, I am to get about $750 every month when I turn 65 - which is 20 years from now. Recently I got a mail from the pension plan stating I now have few options. 1. Op...
by grok87
Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Founder of world's largest hedge fund manager shares his ideas about success
Replies: 2
Views: 601

Re: Founder of world's largest hedge fund manager shares his ideas about success

Here is a more recent article that makes Taylor's point https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/09/19/hedge-fund-titan-ray-dalio-says-to-succeed-in-markets-you-need-to-bet-against-the-consensus--and-be-right.html Both the pure alpha fund and the all weather fund are underperforming the ma...
by grok87
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)
Replies: 4
Views: 394

Re: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)

That's a tough one. With an average of 10k per bond i don't think you are going to get as good pricing as if you had say 50k or 100k per bond. Couldn't hurt to try online first. Here is some advice: 1) see if the bonds have traded recently on emma. 2) be prepared to sell at a discount to prices on ...
by grok87
Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)
Replies: 4
Views: 394

Re: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)

My mom (executor) has asked me to help her liquidate over 20 individual municipal bonds (all in one state) worth ~$200K. These bonds are in an estate account, due to passing of her husband recently, and the proceeds will be split between my mom and other family members. All of the individual munici...
by grok87
Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1435
Views: 570827

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

market timer wrote:
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:16 pm
Net worth: $1.2mn, not counting wife's assets
Equity exposure: $0
Children: 2
congrats!
by grok87
Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.
Replies: 14
Views: 1206

Re: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.

remember Vanguard gives all of the securities lending income to its funds. DFA like other fund shops only gives its funds the legally required 50% of the lending income. First of all, a number of fund companies return 100% to the funds. Vanguard is hardly the only one. DFA does as well. These days ...
by grok87
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Ford Escape drivers in Boglehead-land?
Replies: 23
Views: 2369

Re: Any Ford Escape drivers in Boglehead-land?

jadedfalcons wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:58 am
Just keep this in mind if you get the Escape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxFp7atlOwI
that's pretty funny
http://arresteddevelopment.wikia.com/wiki/Ford_Escape
by grok87
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.
Replies: 14
Views: 1206

Re: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.

remember Vanguard gives all of the securities lending income to its funds. DFA like other fund shops only gives its funds the legally required 50% of the lending income.
[edit: corrected my error]
by grok87
Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: first time CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?
Replies: 9
Views: 1229

Re: first time secondary CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?

1) if you pay a premium over par, then that premium is not FDIC insured. This is just what I needed, thanks. So this is why they have higher yields. sure. there is another reason for the higher yields of brokered CDs vs say regular CDs. Regular CDs often have an early withdrawal feature. This lets ...
by grok87
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: first time CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?
Replies: 9
Views: 1229

Re: first time CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?

I've always bought retails CDs but since I'm not considering redeeming before maturity I am considering getting non-callable 7 year CDs on the secondary market through Vanguard. It looks very straightforward but I have little experience with brokerage accounts or secondary markets. Is there anythin...
by grok87
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Waterproof container for documents-pending Florida hurricane
Replies: 29
Views: 2377

Re: Waterproof container for documents-pending Florida hurricane

Scan / photograph them, and store it in some cloud storage (iCloud, Box, Dropbox, etc., etc.). If you want, put the originals in your dishwasher (it is, after all, water-tight). dishwasher is a great idea I've read that but then I've also read concerns about the drain connection. Dishwashers do hav...
by grok87
Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flaunt Your High-Mileage Car
Replies: 350
Views: 39579

Re: Flaunt Your High-Mileage Car

2001 honda odyssey with 140 k miles.
I nearly threw in the towel a couple of years ago when i had to replace the transmission. So far so good.
by grok87
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Waterproof container for documents-pending Florida hurricane
Replies: 29
Views: 2377

Re: Waterproof container for documents-pending Florida hurricane

billthecat wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:17 am
Scan / photograph them, and store it in some cloud storage (iCloud, Box, Dropbox, etc., etc.). If you want, put the originals in your dishwasher (it is, after all, water-tight).
dishwasher is a great idea
by grok87
Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dual Citizenship (USA/Portugal); Obtaining a Portuguese Passport
Replies: 10
Views: 1197

Re: Dual Citizenship (USA/Portugal); Obtaining a Portuguese Passport

not trying to discourage your wife from getting the dual citizenship, but she will need to do this carefully so as not to jeopardize her US citizenship

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... ality.html
by grok87
Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 7 Reasons Why Advisors Should Use Bond Ladders
Replies: 7
Views: 1954

Re: Larry Swedroe: 7 Reasons Why Advisors Should Use Bond Ladders

Interesting article. Re the credit risk point, ie the argument that there have been basically zero losses from AA/AAA GO bonds in the last x number of years... 1) it is worth thinking about the Near misses etc. orange county was AA when it defaulted in 1994. The train wreck that is the state of Illi...
by grok87
Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism
Replies: 44
Views: 4295

Re: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism

The fault with all of these articles (that bash index funds) is that they fail to recognize that you need only a very small proportion of investors to be active in order to have reasonable price discovery. In other words, there is no problem unless almost everyone in an indexer, which will never ha...
by grok87
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy
Replies: 23
Views: 3122

Re: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy

Anyone else amused by the comment that they are now putting more effort into choosing the best active managers? Now I get it. Until now no one really tried to pick good active managers. Surely anyone.who sets out to pick managers who can beat the market will succeed. All they have to do is try. goo...
by grok87
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy
Replies: 23
Views: 3122

Re: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy

An interesting article in the WSJ (title: "World’s Biggest Pension Fund Wants to Stop Index Trackers Eating the Economy") https://goo.gl/8WRV2r Pay-walled. This is a non-walled version: https://goo.gl/nWRQP2 I realize the gut-response of boggleheads is to dismiss this thinking. Disclosure: I am mos...
by grok87
Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 11916

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

If interested in more about this research, covering 17 advanced countries from 1870-2015, one can access for free some of the original data sets in Excel format (including housing prices, stock prices, interest rates, inflation rates, real GDP growth and more) — plus read similar papers that have b...
by grok87
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Upcoming 2017 changes to Vanguard REIT fund(s)
Replies: 23
Views: 4448

Re: Upcoming 2017 changes to Vanguard REIT fund(s)

thanks for the heads up.

not a fan of this change...
by grok87
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 56
Views: 5790

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

no they are not corporates. they would be pools of mortgages that are without any sort of backing- be it federal (GNMA) or government-sponsored-enterprise (GSE = Fannie/Freddie) My understanding or maybe misunderstanding. GNMAs are motgage pools guaranteed by US. GSE mortgage pools do not have a US...