Search found 7452 matches

by grok87
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Upcoming 2017 changes to Vanguard REIT fund(s)
Replies: 7
Views: 1408

Re: Upcoming 2017 changes to Vanguard REIT fund(s)

thanks for the heads up.

not a fan of this change...
by grok87
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 53
Views: 4516

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

no they are not corporates. they would be pools of mortgages that are without any sort of backing- be it federal (GNMA) or government-sponsored-enterprise (GSE = Fannie/Freddie) My understanding or maybe misunderstanding. GNMAs are motgage pools guaranteed by US. GSE mortgage pools do not have a US...
by grok87
Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 53
Views: 4516

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

non-agency MBS would not be government I didn't pose the question well. Actually I messed it up completely. Let me try again. Are non-agency MBS corporates? The reason I get confused is that agency MBS is government but not agency MBS is securitized which is a different category from corporate. Or ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 53
Views: 4516

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

Good point, but the investment grade funds are only about half corporates VFIDX Intermediate IG Guv 14.5% Corp 69.6% Securitized 13.9% Source Morningstar. thanks. i was looking at the short term one... The short fund is only 22% guv (17% Treasuries) Part of the difference is in the securitized. Are...
by grok87
Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 53
Views: 4516

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

Doc wrote:
grok87 wrote:Good point, but the investment grade funds are only about half corporates
VFIDX Intermediate IG

Guv 14.5%
Corp 69.6%
Securitized 13.9%

Source Morningstar.
thanks. i was looking at the short term one...
by grok87
Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 53
Views: 4516

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

I think the end game here is they merge the active treasury funds into the new index treasury funds They may keep them seperate like they do with their investment grade and corp bond fund? They still have vfsux and vficx on the active side vs vcsh and vcit which are passive fund. Only time will tel...
by grok87
Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)
Replies: 53
Views: 4516

Re: Vanguard Government Bond Index Funds changing names and indices (dropping agency bonds)

I think the end game here is they merge the active treasury funds into the new index treasury funds
by grok87
Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1714

Re: 40 / 30 / 30. Any good ?

How do you know that gold's real valuation is $500 or below? One way is to look at gold miners production cost per ounce. While it varies, this link supports the idea that the lowest cost miners are in the 500-800 range https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/17/worlds-lowest-cost-gold-producer-eyes-even-more...
by grok87
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4588

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

What would you be holding if you were 35 had an 8 year old. Had $85k for her education and had 10 years to make sure it got to $200? Bonds aren't going to do it. jbolden1517" First, I would recognize the fact that NO 85K investment will "make sure it got to $200 in ten years." Second, I would not p...
by grok87
Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Vanguard Flagship Free Trades
Replies: 4
Views: 588

Re: Question about Vanguard Flagship Free Trades

I have been Flagship for many years. I have always invested with funds and never used any of the free trades. I am considering regularly investing into a non-Vanguard ETF; if I do this, I could use the free trades. The Vanguard site lists 25 free trades for Flagship. Question is whether this is 25 ...
by grok87
Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Piñata
Replies: 27
Views: 2968

Re: Bond Fund Piñata

Foreign bonds also don't help that much. Dollar-hedging them is cheap enough that they're basically exposed to the same risks as US bonds. If you don't dollar hedge them, you're taking on exchange-rate risk, which has zero expected return. The vanguard international bond fund uses "spot" ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4588

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

"The authors based their volatility returns primarily on two instruments: variance swaps and options. Their data series has an earliest start date of 1995, with starting dates varying depending on data availability."

Yep. Nicely missing the 1987 crash
by grok87
Tue Aug 01, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4224

Re: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]

Once one gets down to "a few basis points" things like securities lending (SL) policies start to matter. As this article points out, vanguard gives 100% of SL income to its funds. Most others only do the legal minimum of 50%. That's a few basis points right there. m It also rubs me the wro...
by grok87
Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 2026

Re: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?

Another thing that has not been mentioned yet is state taxes. With cds you pay it with treasuries you don't. Obviously only relevant for investments in a taxable account Let's say someone pays 10% state tax and assume the OP's cd is a brokerage one. Then the 2.8% nets to 2.52% or 26 bps more than th...
by grok87
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 2026

Re: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?

On a slightly different track, I think of CDs as bonds with a put feature. this is sort of true with regular CDs. Even then i think this put feature "ain't what it used to be" as early withdrawal penalties have become more punitive. Also there is no guarantee in general of being able to w...
by grok87
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 2026

Re: CD Rates so much higher than bonds?

agree with both badger and dandan
by grok87
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 887

Re: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield

I think all those figures are gross buybacks. A lot of the time companies appear to be buying back a lot of stock but they are just offsetting the dilution that comes from all the stock options they issue to their execs. this is a little dated but still makes the point m are_buybacks_an_oasis_or_a_...
by grok87
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 887

Re: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield

I think all those figures are gross buybacks.

A lot of the time companies appear to be buying back a lot of stock but they are just offsetting the dilution that comes from all the stock options they issue to their execs.
by grok87
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson on Commodities
Replies: 12
Views: 1117

Re: Ben Carlson on Commodities

Does anyone know if there is a commodity fund or etf that is "backwardation" focused?

There used to be an etn by credit suisse ticker CSCR but it got called early due to lack of interest.
by grok87
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Way to Sharpen Tools
Replies: 11
Views: 1129

Re: Best Way to Sharpen Tools

I have a push mower with curved blades i think- what would woRk for that?
by grok87
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3332

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

The article is silent on the big one to me, calls. Almost all munis are callable, treasuries never. So the buyer of a muni takes almost all the risk of rising interest rates and gets almost no benefit from falling interest rates. it's a great point.... Of course, those who hold munis in a rising ra...
by grok87
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8348

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

All of the big finance guys like Larry make a ton of money.If they did not keep coming up with reasons for this and reasons for that and all of the technical mumbo jumbo,they would not be big rich financial guys.The truth is that a simple diversified portfolio is all anyone needs and all of the til...
by grok87
Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 97
Views: 6960

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

As others have pointed out, if you hold to maturity there is no risk, assuming you are using it to fund "real" future spending needs. But personally i'm not expecting to necessarily hold my tips ladder to maturity. I plan to keep buying 30 year tips till i am say 65. Sometime in my 80s i p...
by grok87
Sun Jul 23, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3332

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

The article is silent on the big one to me, calls. Almost all munis are callable, treasuries never. So the buyer of a muni takes almost all the risk of rising interest rates and gets almost no benefit from falling interest rates. it's a great point. take the vanguard long term tax exempt bond fund ...
by grok87
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3332

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

grabiner wrote: your expected return is still the SEC yield.

+1
by grok87
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8348

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Some folks seem to feel reits are overvalued. One metric thrown out is their dividend yield compared to the total stock market.
I'd be curious anout any others?

Here is a link arguing that reits are NOT overvalued

https://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/insights/avgpremnav
by grok87
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1178

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

Yesterday the 3-month was higher than the 6-month: 1.15 and 1.12, respectively. Today, a little wider with a 6 bps difference, 1.16 and 1.10. Seem inconsequential but a little odd. This inversion is being attributed to concern that the 3-month payment could be delayed due to a debt ceiling impasse:...
by grok87
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8348

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

It is true that REITs provide exposure to the Size, Value, Term, and Credit factors and can be historically (mostly) replicated via a combination of small/mid-cap value + Corporate Bonds: thanks. 3 quick thoughts: 1) I wonder if there is a tax angle that is being ignored here. some of reits return ...
by grok87
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4001

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

[Snip...] 5) so arguably one could take 2 different roads: a) treasuries and small cap value or b) tips and total stock market. With a) the treasuries should hedge the deflationary scenaRios when scv does poorly. But i prefer b) as the inflation hedge is more guaranteed and tips offer some protecti...
by grok87
Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4001

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

A few thoughts. 1) fama and french have a new model that incorporates two new factors, profitability and "low investment" as well as their original small and value factors. In this model they found that value actually drops out, ie is no longer statistically significant. So f&f have no...
by grok87
Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

To bring it back to the thread topic, are you aware of any alternative funds focused on long short "profitability/investment". I'm aware that some of the AQR alternatives may use these factors but they don't seem focused on them. They seem more focused on momentum and value. cheers, grok ...
by grok87
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

I guess the question is (at least for me), is it better to invest in a Large Cap Value fund or a Large Cap "High Profitability/Low Investment" Fund (assuming you could find one). I don't know the answer to this but I suspect that the latter might better avoid value traps. Would be interes...
by grok87
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Maybe to move onto something actionable... I guess the question is (at least for me), is it better to invest in a Large Cap Value fund or a Large Cap "High Profitability/Low Investment" Fund (assuming you could find one). I don't know the answer to this but I suspect that the latter might...
by grok87
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

This is a very valuable thread topic, but I am surprised by a couple of key omissions. 1) Expenses. They matter in this universe too. 2) VMNFX. I saw just a couple of mentions in passing, but Vanguard's own low cost retail hedge fund did not make the top 5 summary list? Yes, at one point I bought t...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

2) Fama and French don't believe in the value premium any more either. This is not at all what they say. The paper (linked from your Forbes link) was first published in 2013 (final revision in 2014), so it's not exactly new: m The last sentence of the abstract reads "With the addition of profi...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

2) Fama and French don't believe in the value premium any more either. m "In practical terms, since there is indeed a value premium, it is still quite legitimate for investors to target it in portfolio decisions. The expected benefits from doing so have not changed." . Thanks Robert that ...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The one thing about a belief, like value vs. growth, is that you have to determine if the parameter you are talking about (value in this case) has a positive excess return or is more cyclical. With long and not regular cycles, the apparent excess return could be nothing more than the upside of a cy...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly
Replies: 14
Views: 1641

Re: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly

2) Let's say we go with the second of the approaches above. Then I would make the following comments: a) You are less equity oriented than Swensen having 62.5% in Stocks/Real-Estate vs his 70% b) But in a sense this is fine as you are putting 25% in SCV Multifactor which has higher risk (and hopefu...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Comprehension
Replies: 7
Views: 740

Re: Financial Comprehension

Thanks grok, someone else told me that as well. I didn't have a problem and I'm not a member or logged in, etc. What do you think of the difference between literacy and comprehension. Is the distinction important? From the interview You write that “the main job” of an advisor is to “manage a client...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Comprehension
Replies: 7
Views: 740

Re: Financial Comprehension

Meir Statman, finance professor at Stanford, and author of a new book, Finance for Normal People, makes a distinction between financial literacy and financial comprehension. Here's what he said in an interview with Think Advisor (11/16) Financial literacy is understanding [concepts like] compound i...
by grok87
Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly
Replies: 14
Views: 1641

Re: The Modified (Golden) Butterfly

Hello everyone, I came across Tyler's excellent website a year ago and could not help to be drawn to the pratical representations of asset and portfolio performance he offers there. Naturally, while browsing his website, I came across his Golden Butterfly portfolio and was instantly sold, more so b...
by grok87
Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road vehicle, 4 adults, one car seat, must it be a minivan?
Replies: 43
Views: 2430

Re: Road vehicle, 4 adults, one car seat, must it be a minivan?

I'm a man and I drive a Honda Odyssey. You know, I can fit a 4x8 piece of drywall laying flat in the back. It has leather, heated seats. It can also fit 8 passengers. [Hangs head in shame. Toe-ing the floor.] In fact, I bought it last week. It's 10 years old, which means I bought it where the depre...
by grok87
Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you 'get paid' when currency hedging?
Replies: 11
Views: 957

Re: Can you 'get paid' when currency hedging?

Uncovered interest parity - it turned out that, empirically, if you invested in high interest rate currencies and borrowed in low interest rate ones ("the Carry trade") the depreciation of the former ( due to higher inflation) did not fully offset the higher yield you got (ie no purchase ...
by grok87
Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

There's plenty of risk but the probable downside is not nearly as large as you always seem to imply. Thanks lack_ey. There is actually one risk i forgot to mention. The fund is actively managed. ... m "The Fund is actively managed and the Fund’s exposures to Styles and Asset Groups will vary b...
by grok87
Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

There's plenty of risk but the probable downside is not nearly as large as you always seem to imply. Thanks lack_ey. There is actually one risk i forgot to mention. The fund is actively managed. ... m "The Fund is actively managed and the Fund’s exposures to Styles and Asset Groups will vary b...
by grok87
Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The correlations are not stable. certainly not stable enough to make a leveraged bet on it like QSPIX does- the idea of making a leveraged bet on something that (unleveraged) can lose 82% in a year is insane IMHO. QSPIX is about 1/3 CS MOM and it is scaled for volatility and it has MOM outside of e...
by grok87
Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Grok, I believe you are making a mistake. I agree strongly that for a portfolio what matters is the CAGR. Nobody believes this more than me! See my post on volatility drag. But in evaluating an individual investment as a potential addition to a portfolio, I think the investor is best served looking...
by grok87
Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 9481

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

thanks Dave. i guess i would be cautious about any analysis on momentum out of AQR. Tough to separate the true research from the marketing spin. As Buffet would say, don't ask the barber if you need a haircut. Lot's of backtesting and clever period-selection stuff in their papers. For example they ...
by grok87
Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone read Carlo Rovelli's books on physics?
Replies: 9
Views: 1145

Re: Anyone read Carlo Rovelli's books on physics?

I read the seven lessons book and liked it