Search found 8209 matches

by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 24
Views: 2352

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

Nonfiction- Ubiquity by Mark Buchanan

Fiction- the Lord of the rings - Tolkien

Financial- “Unconventional Success” David Swensen
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 782

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I’m suspicious of any bond fund or cef that doesn’t disclose the sec yield and many of these do not. It is very easy to make the distribution yield look good through leverage, inverse floaters, etc. all smoke and mirrors. One way to think about the discount is as a function of the expense ratio and...
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 782

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I use XMPT which is a muni bond ETF that follows the S-Network Municipal Bond Closed-End Fund Index. ... Anyway, I prefer the leverage to the higher credit risk I used to hold, and overall my fixed income is yielding similar to total bond (tax adjusted) so I don't feel like I am undertaking that mu...
by grok87
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?
Replies: 17
Views: 782

Re: Anyone see any benifit to CEFs (close end funds)?

I’m suspicious of any bond fund or cef that doesn’t disclose the sec yield and many of these do not. It is very easy to make the distribution yield look good through leverage, inverse floaters, etc. all smoke and mirrors. One way to think about the discount is as a function of the expense ratio and ...
by grok87
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1495

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

...As for me, I have annuity income from TIAA Traditional (approximately fixed from year to year), but also variable annuity income based on commercial real estate (TREA) and the broad stock market (CREF Stock). Both of the latter tend to increase over time, possibly beating inflation. But I take t...
by grok87
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1495

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Something like the Fidelity 2% annual increment or the TIAA graded payment avoids risk of...
by grok87
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1495

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by grok87
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1495

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by grok87
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 3718

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates ( but not corporations ) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly t...
by grok87
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 3718

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

for another simple example, mutual funds pass through realized capital gains but not realized capitals losses to fund shareholders (except in the sense that they offset the gains) Mutual funds are able to "pass through" long-term capital gains the fund realizes as distributions that shareholders pa...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cleaning gas grill
Replies: 40
Views: 3123

Re: Cleaning gas grill

I use copper mats. Put two on top of the grill racks, grill everything like usual then wash off the mats afterward. Nothing falls on the grill racks so no cleaning of the racks is needed. TravelforFun i recently tried the copper mats on a grill without a cover. i put one mat on the grill and one on...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plumbing emergency: Guillens for parts? Has anybody used?
Replies: 14
Views: 901

Re: Shower is fixed!

<snip> As a side note, when attempting home repairs myself I always think of this Schopenhauer quote All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. — Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860) 1...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 3718

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

Mutual funds are pretty explicitly pass through entities. I don’t understand how someone could look at these regulations and say REIT funds aren’t included, but I’m not an expert. i understand your perspective. but i think there is a technical tax meaning to "pass through" and mutual funds are not ...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plumbing emergency: Guillens for parts? Has anybody used?
Replies: 14
Views: 901

Shower is fixed!

Shower is fixed! Thanks for everyone who responded. the parts came as advertised. i over ordered as i wasn't sure what i needed. it turned out all i needed was a $5 part! I really had no idea what i was doing. i experimented and watched a bunch of youtube videos. if i add up all the costs for the st...
by grok87
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9427

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

Here's the updated version of this comparison. I believe Swensen moved from 20% REIT to 15%. Anyway, this link compares Swensen's portfolio to the 3 fund with the same AA. It's a tie, and the conclusion is.... Lesson learned: Portfolios do not need to be complicated to be successful. :happy https:/...
by grok87
Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3468

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

Whoever is lending is probably a lot more savvy than the NYT writer (certainly he has been financially way more successful because he has the money to lend) so I am dubious that the NYT has any more insight into whether there is a "bubble" than a random person in the street. The people "doing the l...
by grok87
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9427

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

just bumping this interesting thread from a few years ago. I guess if one follows Swensen and holds a separate allocation to EM it might be time to rebalance. Hi grok, My portfolio strongly resembles Swensen's model portfolio, and I do have a dedicated allocation to EM with a small tilt. But last t...
by grok87
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9684

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Wait 6 months till they are out of the news TUR was at 26.84 on july 24th. now at 21.49 You weren't wrong. I don't know if I am impatient or somehow [was] *expecting* the buying opportunity to go away. i've done the same thing myself. :) ... the old wall street adage "cut your losses but let your w...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9427

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

just bumping this interesting thread from a few years ago. I guess if one follows Swensen and holds a separate allocation to EM it might be time to rebalance. Hi grok, My portfolio strongly resembles Swensen's model portfolio, and I do have a dedicated allocation to EM with a small tilt. But last t...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!
Replies: 59
Views: 9427

Re: I had a meeting with David Swensen tonight!

just bumping this interesting thread from a few years ago. I guess if one follows Swensen and holds a separate allocation to EM it might be time to rebalance.
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9684

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Wait 6 months till they are out of the news TUR was at 26.84 on july 24th. now at 21.49 You weren't wrong. I don't know if I am impatient or somehow [was] *expecting* the buying opportunity to go away. i've done the same thing myself. :) whenever a stock or a country takes a nosedive, one often hea...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9684

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

grok87 wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:28 am
Wait 6 months till they are out of the news
TUR was at 26.84 on july 24th. now at 21.49
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: financial planning and the unknowability of the future
Replies: 15
Views: 1370

Re: financial planning and the unknowability of the future

2) contributing to tax deferred accounts though your tax bracket in retirement *might* be higher 2) if your tax bracket in retirement is higher then perhaps your future self is well off? if your tax bracket in retirement is lower, then perhaps your future self is poor. in this second case you'll pr...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 3718

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates (but not corporations) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly tra...
by grok87
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3468

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

As far as I know quantitative easing involved the fed purchasing treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities (which have no credit risk). You are correct that the Fed did not purchase any corporate debt via QE (the central banks of other countries have included corporate debt in their schemes,...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3468

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/corporate-debt-bubble-next-recession.html Thoughts? Can any fixed income bankers here confirm / deny this trend? Fits nicely with the other recent thread about how Treasury bonds are the only bonds you need. I think this quote is wrong? Mr. Bernanke had a ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: financial planning and the unknowability of the future
Replies: 15
Views: 1370

Re: financial planning and the unknowability of the future

Hi all, I am noticing in my thinking that I am trying more to abide by the principle of the future's unknowability, the future being more "unknowable" the farther out it gets. Therefore, I try to make decisions that benefit me most in the nearer term, say within 5 or 10 years. For example, I prefer...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 3718

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates (but not corporations) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly tra...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:50 am
Fun with numbers - total returns over the last 7 years:
Nasdaq 100: +289%
S&P 500: +193%
Bloomberg Commodity Index: -43%

:beer
thanks
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 39
Views: 3718

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

irs guidance is out. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-107892-18.pdf page 6 Section 199A also allows individuals and some trusts and estates (but not corporations) a deduction of up to 20 percent of their combined qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends and qualified publicly trad...
by grok87
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

I have a tiny bit of BCI and BCD. I think the big problem with BCI, BCD and CMDY is volume is so low. I wonder if anyone will offer them commission free. Also with low AUM if they don't grow I feel risk is they get closed out. I would be inclined to spread any purchase of commodity over multiple fu...
by grok87
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity announced 10-for-1 fund splits in certain mutual funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3753

Re: Fidelity announced 10-for-1 fund splits in certain mutual funds

for etfs higher nav is arguably better as spread is less as % of nav.
by grok87
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs Trading At A Discount to NAV?
Replies: 3
Views: 470

Re: Are REITs Trading At A Discount to NAV?

According to this link, reits are trading at a 2% discount to nav.

https://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/insights/avgpremnav
by grok87
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Theoretical wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:52 am
This one is the one you’re looking for. Index futures and active collateral. .29%

BCI
thanks, much appreciated. i think this fund was mentioned upthread as well...
by grok87
Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Dudley wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:52 am
what do you think of CMDY ? (iShares, new so currently low vol and AUM, er=0.28%, no K1)
i like the low expense ratio. it's hard to understand this fund's strategy. i think it is actively managed? on both the commodities side and the collateral? would prefer and index approach on the commodities
by grok87
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

DBC is actively managed, they adjust for contango? http://www.etf.com/DBC not sure i trust the idea of active management. and the e.r. is 0.88% The better one is PDBC which is actively managed on the collateral and uses a wholly owned Cayman sub to make it a ‘40 Act fund with no K-1. It’s .59 now. ...
by grok87
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are muni rates determined?
Replies: 25
Views: 1604

Re: how are muni rates determined?

good thread. just chiming in to warn against buying munis on the secondary market. you are going to get ripped off. the bid ask spreads are usually huge. like 5%. so if one does want to buy individual munisL 1) buy at issuance only 2) be prepared to hold to maturity 3) buy in size say $50 k a bond i...
by grok87
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

What is the idea behind waiting for backwardation? I haven't seen where this has any predictive power for returns. Some commodities that are cheap to store and have low consumption, such as gold, rarely trade in backwardation. Contango in the gold market arises from the cost of capital. The forward...
by grok87
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

boglerdude wrote:
Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:43 pm
DBC is actively managed, they adjust for contango?

http://www.etf.com/DBC
not sure i trust the idea of active management. and the e.r. is 0.88%
by grok87
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help with Mom’s Retirement Income
Replies: 34
Views: 3642

Re: Need Help with Mom’s Retirement Income

You should familiarize yourself with the concept of “safe withdrawal rates” as outlined in this section of the Bogleheads wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates In your mother’s case, her safe withdrawal rate is between 4% and 5% of her portfolio. She can’t restrict her withdra...
by grok87
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help with Mom’s Retirement Income
Replies: 34
Views: 3642

Re: Need Help with Mom’s Retirement Income

Someone else should weigh in on this, but I am thinking that it might make sense to roll over an amount to an IndividualRetirementAnnuity SPIA with your IRA money rather than selling and paying tax on the taxable account to buy a SPIA. The SPIA amount would be taken out of the RMD calculation and t...
by grok87
Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6910

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

still not time to invest in commodities. https://data.bloomberglp.com/promo/sites/12/242616_BCOM-August2018Outlook.pdf see page 15. broad commodities index is in contango of -3.6% which is 1.4% points worse than where it was last month. that being said i still think the situation is worth monitoring...
by grok87
Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco auto buying service is USELESS!
Replies: 43
Views: 26512

Re: Costco auto buying service is USELESS!

:confused I asked CostCo if this was just a referral service where the dealers kick back a fee to CostCo and the person I was talking to told me that they do not know how it works. I called the official dealer told me that they take $2,500 off of the official sticker price for CostCo members. But t...
by grok87
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2162

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

tell that to the japanese investors from 1990 Getting back to the subject of investment reutrns, Japanese who had a global portfolio did OK since 1989. The blog post that seemed to inspire the thread title was based on the idea of getting global exposure and not being overly-concentrated in one nat...
by grok87
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Payoff rental property or invest in the market
Replies: 15
Views: 1433

Re: Payoff rental property or invest in the market

for a lot of people though is suspect mortgage interest may not really be deductible anymore. with the standard mfj deduction at $24 k and state and local taxes capped at $10k, you need $14k of interest to get over the standard deduction. at a 4% interest rate that is a $350k mortgage. Not applicab...
by grok87
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Payoff rental property or invest in the market
Replies: 15
Views: 1433

Re: Payoff rental property or invest in the market

for a lot of people though is suspect mortgage interest may not really be deductible anymore. with the standard mfj deduction at $24 k and state and local taxes capped at $10k, you need $14k of interest to get over the standard deduction. at a 4% interest rate that is a $350k mortgage.
by grok87
Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2162

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

tell that to the japanese investors from 1990 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) The Lost Decade or the Lost 10 Years (失われた十年 Ushinawareta Jūnen) is a period of economic stagnation in Japan following the Japanese asset price bubble's collapse in late 1991 and early 1992. The term orig...
by grok87
Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 199
Views: 17802

Re: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free

stlutz wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:13 pm
In related news, Fidelity has dramatically expanded their list of free iShares ETFs to 240.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060 ... e-ETFs.pdf
i'm guessing many of the fidelity etfs and some of the ishares ones are actively managed.
by grok87
Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1362

Re: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?

well the inverted (real) yield curve is here. 5 year tips yield 0.84% and 10 year tips 0.83%

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates ... t-bonds/us