Search found 7609 matches

by grok87
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Income in retirement questions
Replies: 15
Views: 2007

Re: Income in retirement questions

I am nearing retirement and would like some advice. I am 61, my wife 60. No debts. Investing through Vanguard, how would be the best way to withdraw money from my account in retirement. Taking the dividends from my portfolio and my Social Security will leave me around $24,000 short per year. Any su...
by grok87
Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2093

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

As per the posted chart it is a price only index. So ignores dividends. Also really unclear how they are defining EM. As pointed out above the term was only coined recently. Lot's of hindsight bias here perhaps. Ie pick the economies that were weak over the past 100 years and guess what there stock ...
by grok87
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New TIPS vs Old TIPS
Replies: 4
Views: 534

Re: New TIPS vs Old TIPS

Although one buys TIPS to hedge against unexpected higher inflation, we can never predict whether deflation will ever reappear. It doesn't seem like TIPS pricing accounts for this, else the older TIPS with the higher principal balance would always have a higher YTM to offset for the deflation risk....
by grok87
Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VUSXX vs. TreasuryDirect
Replies: 10
Views: 1026

Re: VUSXX vs. TreasuryDirect

you can get some info on VUSXX's risk from vanguard website https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0011&FundIntExt=INT&ps_disable_redirect=true#tab=2 the average maturity of the tbills it holds is 55 days https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0011&FundIntExt=INT&ps_d...
by grok87
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33651

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

There is always discussion regarding withdrawal rates and what is safe. Those who retired in the year 2000 have probably had the roughest road of any retirees in terms of market returns since the early 1970s. Let's take a look to see where they would be today, 18 years later, if they had used a 4% ...
by grok87
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33651

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Assuming a retirement age of 65, about 7% of retirees will survive longer than 30 years. If the retirement age is 60 we are talking of survival in excess of 30 years for around 20%. the 7% is for male retirees https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html for women retiring at age 65, 14% are expect...
by grok87
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed rate reset?
Replies: 9
Views: 2334

Re: PenFed rate reset?

Typical ARM would increase/decrease a max +2 or -2 from the 'your current' rate at the time of rate-change/reset. (be careful when choosing ARM's which have rate-reset upto 5% or 6% upwards, at the time of its "first rate-reset". Stay AWAY from such ARMs, time to do ReFi those now!) Now, if you 'cu...
by grok87
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed rate reset?
Replies: 9
Views: 2334

Re: PenFed rate reset?

So i am now facing the penfed 5/5 arm reset decision myself. my Current rate is 2.75% and the offered reset is 3.3125% for the next 66 months. So the downside is that i would be increasing my interest rate for the next 6 months to get a lower interest rate of 3.3125% (vs. say 4.3%) for the followin...
by grok87
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed rate reset?
Replies: 9
Views: 2334

Re: PenFed rate reset?

very helpful thread... So i am now facing the penfed 5/5 arm reset decision myself. my Current rate is 2.75% and the offered reset is 3.3125% for the next 66 months. So the downside is that i would be increasing my interest rate for the next 6 months to get a lower interest rate of 3.3125% (vs. say ...
by grok87
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

Here is what the NY Fed makes of the Yield Curve (Updated 03-Jan-2018) https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf Thanks So based on 3mo-10 yr spread their model suggests a 12% chance of recesssion which is basically the same level it reached just before the...
by grok87
Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 118
Views: 7036

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

consternatio partners

longs
tnet
cnc
xpo

shorts
CIM
NLY
MFA
by grok87
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 25
Views: 2795

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

He said his bonds were short term, and he favored Treasuries to corporate bonds. Do that mean he does not agree with the Boglehead approach of buying Total Bond Fund? correct he does not. in unconventional success he views bonds not as sources of good long term returns but as diversifiers. i person...
by grok87
Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 25
Views: 2795

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

Stick5vw -- Swensen's book for individual investors is Unconventional Success . The preface says: When I began my work on Unconventional Success , I contemplated writing a diferent book... Pioneering Portfolio Management [his book for institutional investors] describes an equity-oriented, broadly d...
by grok87
Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

default risk? https://events.barcelonagse.eu/live/files/897-icf15-rancierepdf No. At least not really for the US yield curve or other developed markets with low market-perceived risk of default. Check CDS rates and flows, investor sentiment and opinions, etc. during these times. But more generally,...
by grok87
Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

default risk? https://events.barcelonagse.eu/live/files/897-icf15-rancierepdf We present novel evidence that, in present value terms, creditors with short maturity securities suffer significantly more than creditors with long maturity securities during recent sovereign debt restructuring episodes. ...
by grok87
Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

default risk? https://events.barcelonagse.eu/live/files/897-icf15-rancierepdf We present novel evidence that, in present value terms, creditors with short maturity securities suffer significantly more than creditors with long maturity securities during recent sovereign debt restructuring episodes. W...
by grok87
Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

grok87 wrote: not to be pedantic, but for the benefit of clarity for others who may be reading, you are saying "Duration risk is something that was rewarded for 35 years SINCE 1982..." right? Right, grok87, thanks for the correction. I'm old and sometimes there's a disconnect between when I mean an...
by grok87
Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

if you don't mind my asking what were the bid/ask spreads like on the 3 year tips you sold? About 6 bps for qty 150, 9 bps for qty 25 and 12 bps for qty 1 this morning. Not enough to care about the cost over the auction prices. The hassel with bond premium is another matter if you worry about selli...
by grok87
Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

grok87 wrote: For the past 5 days: Long tips= ltpz: down 1.3% Long nominal treasuries= edv down 3.3% That 2% differential is modest relative to what is expected if increasing inflation actually becomes a long term secular trend. Few even consider such a situation, but that doesn't rule it out as a ...
by grok87
Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Did anyone else buy in today's reopening of the 5 year? I tip-toed in with a purchase of my first one year rung. Yield came in at 0.370%. I have a iadder at 6-9 right now, so added a 5. I had a 3-8 ladder so I sold all my 3 yr TIPS yesterday and bought a 6 yr nominal. All my Treasuries under ten ye...
by grok87
Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is TIAA-CREF one of the "good guys"?
Replies: 62
Views: 12911

Re: Is TIAA-CREF one of the "good guys"?

My parents had a perfectly reasonable CREF Stock and Traditional portfolio, and were convinced by the TIAA CREF financial advisor to move into a complex mixture of 10 different funds with high expense ratios (around 1%, so could definitely be worse.) Whther you consider that to be “exploited” is a ...
by grok87
Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

It's certainly been an interesting time in the bond markets and tips are no exception. Breakeven rates have been increasing which means that tips have generally been outperforming. For example at the long end of the curve: For the past 5 days: Long tips= ltpz: down 1.3% Long nominal treasuries= edv ...
by grok87
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 1558

Re: Question About TIPs and TIP Funds

OP here: That was my concern. However, I feel as though I am missing something in that most recommended asset allocations for retirees and near retirees recommend a percentage of TIPs funds. One problem is the time horizon. Vipsx, the regulAr vanguard tips fund has a real duration of 8 years. 5 yea...
by grok87
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation
Replies: 157
Views: 43414

Re: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation

Always passive wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:07 pm
Is 0.76% real yield supposed to be good?
Right now 30 year tips yields have been grinding lower since spiking over 1% earlier in the year.

Over the past 5 years the yields have been in a 0.5% to 1.5% range.

It's hard to know...
by grok87
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation
Replies: 157
Views: 43414

Re: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation

Grok & Doc: Thank you for your insights and advice. I'll probably start by buying some at auction in the coming months. Meanwhile I will continue my education and will begin monitoring interest rates. Looking at the history of interest rates over the past five years I have an observation. Real (and...
by grok87
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your big-picture ‘rules of life’ —financial or otherwise?
Replies: 123
Views: 12852

Re: What are your big-picture ‘rules of life’ —financial or otherwise?

Lostinjersey, all the pratices you mentioned are typically mentioned in "how to be happier" type articles. They're not bad things to do. But doing them as a formula for "happiness" won't work without also having a bigger purpose in life. I suggest reading "man's search for meaning" by Viktor Franke...
by grok87
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

With bonds, the inverse relationship between price and yield, means it doesn't matter whether you consider a risk premium to be a discounted price or higher yield. If, at some point in time, the expected value of the liquidity risk premium of a TIP is higher than the expected value of the inflation...
by grok87
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 87
Views: 7706

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

"I have a strong psychic belief that [bitcoin will crash] on New Years Eve..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kiiuc0M4L40
by grok87
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

With bonds, the inverse relationship between price and yield, means it doesn't matter whether you consider a risk premium to be a discounted price or higher yield. If, at some point in time, the expected value of the liquidity risk premium of a TIP is higher than the expected value of the inflation...
by grok87
Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation
Replies: 157
Views: 43414

Re: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation

I understand your point but it still sounds like market timing. You say "TIPS are expensive now". What does that really mean? Do TIPS have some instrinsic value that you expect them to revert to? I didn't know bonds had intrinsic value different from their market value. They're not like equities. T...
by grok87
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Doc wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:23 pm
If I am doing this right the nominal curve (red line) is also flattening.

Image

Long data range, sorry. Just look at the right inch.
thanks. yield curve certainly looking pretty flat these days...
by grok87
Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

The TIPS yield curve has been flattening over the past 8 months as shown by the green line of the difference between the 30-year and 5-year constant maturity rates : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=gr1E From 4/20/2017 to 12/6/2017 the 30-year yield fell 0.15% points while the 5-ye...
by grok87
Sat Nov 25, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15774

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Many thanks to ArtsDoctor for this: In order to answer your own questions, you'll need to understand the 1994 study on which the 4% SWR was originally calculated. Once you've actually looked into that study and subsequent studies, you'll see that there are many caveats. You can start with a variety...
by grok87
Sat Nov 25, 2017 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15774

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Here is what I came up with: 1) The 4% rule is not a rule but a guideline. 2) Some people are insecure with the 4% guideline and are willing to decrease their guideline to something lower through working longer. 3) No one is a robot and therefor spending will vary over the years. 4) Anyone who has ...
by grok87
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15774

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Your example essentially uses social security as a safety cushion, which is what I am going to do. But I do have serious concern about the survivalbility of the socail security, the impact of huge national debt, possible change of medicare. Nothing should be taken for granted, if you don't have to....
by grok87
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?
Replies: 48
Views: 4611

Re: Have TIPS truly been tested yet?

If you are trying to protect against unexpected inflation TIPS are likely to meet your needs (as well or better than anything else). I was surprised that they dropped in the 2008 stock crisis. They did not provide the protection that standard treasuries did. Once they recovered I exchanged what I h...
by grok87
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 25
Views: 2795

Re: David Swensen Comments (Nov 2017)

[merged this post into the existing thread - moderator prudent] In a recent interview, David Swensen discussed his thoughts on investing internationally, and his thoughts on the US. I found them interesting: https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-david-swensen SWENSEN: The types of questions that y...
by grok87
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Short answer: it's a follow up to a Board analysis of the Vanguard Quantitative Group: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=206890 Investment factors considered: All stocks are ranked according to five characteristics: High quality - healthy balance sheets, steady cash flow Effective us...
by grok87
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 5429

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

This is one of the advantages of the Vanguard Market Neutral fund. It's even more tax efficient than TSM or IJS. It's also levered far less and plays its QVM approach in the small caps. Thanks for the interesting comment. Agree about the recent tax-efficiency and i also like the fact that they are ...
by grok87
Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15774

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Here is what I came up with: 1) The 4% rule is not a rule but a guideline. 2) Some people are insecure with the 4% guideline and are willing to decrease their guideline to something lower through working longer. 3) No one is a robot and therefor spending will vary over the years. 4) Anyone who has ...
by grok87
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 195
Views: 15774

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Here is what I came up with: 1) The 4% rule is not a rule but a guideline. 2) Some people are insecure with the 4% guideline and are willing to decrease their guideline to something lower through working longer. 3) No one is a robot and therefor spending will vary over the years. 4) Anyone who has ...
by grok87
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8368

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Now at 0.82%.

One theory is that corporate pension plans are buying long dated treasuries as they see to de-risk and more fully fund their plans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ve-flatter
by grok87
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 104
Views: 16871

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

There is no such thing as a more or less "safe" asset in the longer term. Thus, the perception that it is possible to "quit the game" is a dangerous illusion. TIPS? Not for high income/high net worth investors with large taxable accounts. If we ever get the rip-roaring inflation that TIPS are bough...