Search found 7553 matches

by grok87
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 138
Views: 8335

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

I agree. I would not be in the least concerned about the insurance companies making my annuity payments and my state's guarantor association all failing. But it's obvious that some people are. My point was merely that if that were to occur, it's very possible that a total economic collapse could be...
by grok87
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Modernization Act Signed Into Law
Replies: 9
Views: 980

Re: TSP Modernization Act Signed Into Law

daveydoo wrote:
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:57 am
Read this thread with a sense of relief -- from the title, I just assumed that "modernization" would mean privatization and conversion to a high-fee model!
+1
by grok87
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1859

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by grok87
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 138
Views: 8335

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

If retirees truly feared running out of money more than death, then why aren't more buying guaranteed income through vehicles such as SPIAs? They might not guarantee a certain standard of living, but they do guarantee that you'll never run out of money. Why should I believe in the guarantee given b...
by grok87
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 12
Views: 827

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

Great interview- thanks for posting. Just a heads up that the transcript is not perfect. Pretty sure he said "absolute return portfolio" in this quote "SWENSEN: No. Well, within the absence of return portfolio, a lot of the long/short managers or a lot of the other strategies have residual equity ex...
by grok87
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 138
Views: 8335

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

There was no need to cut spending in 1972 despite the market crash. You could have taken out 4.5% and been fine. VPW cutting spending was an over reaction.That is the whole flaw in the system. It is easy to go conservative and never run out of money. But that isn't a free choice. You give up spendi...
by grok87
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1859

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

In general shouldn't the underperformance of value for the last decade or so intuitively make one much more not less excited to invest in a value strategy? Or have there been a lot of people making the argument that growth outperforming value is the new normal (as opposed to value continuing to out...
by grok87
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1859

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

An interesting article from from GS explaining the reasons why value has underperformed for a long spell: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-08/goldman-sachs-mulls-death-of-value-investing-after-losing-decade . GS believes a conjunction of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy are ...
by grok87
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 138
Views: 8335

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

I'm curious what folks think about this article. https://www.manning-napier.com/Corporate/Insights/ResearchLibrary/Article/tabid/308/Article/97/Endowments-and-Foundations-A-Closer-Look-at-Spending-Rules.aspx It's more geared to endowments. But it shows that the standard 4% rule (the article uses 5%)...
by grok87
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking I-bonds vs Tax Advantaged TIPS fund
Replies: 5
Views: 624

Re: Rethinking I-bonds vs Tax Advantaged TIPS fund

I think you have a valid point. But ibonds, as mel, pointed out have certain state tax advantages compared to tips in a regular ira/401k. Another one is better deflation protection. Ibonds can only go up. Another one is real interest rate protection. If real rates rise then tips will take a hit wher...
by grok87
Sat Nov 11, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2558

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

i like the emphasis on treasuries and tips. same approach as swensen. but i'm not sure how he is running his backtest starting in 1970 as he claims. tips didn't exist then. my own view is that it is hard to be too scientific about this. in certain periods like recently, long term treasuries have bee...
by grok87
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Seasonal wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:11 pm
As of the moment, 30 yr tips yield is 0.91%, making back about half of the lost yield over the last 2 weeks.
thanks- yes i saw that. makes my decision easier...
by grok87
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 11 month no pnealty CD 1.55% 1K Minnimum
Replies: 11
Views: 1936

Re: 11 month no pnealty CD 1.55% 1K Minnimum

Sure its no penalty if the bank agrees to give you your money back early. They reserve the right not to. From depositaccounts.com I have a No-Penalty CD. How do I access my funds? You can make a request to access the total balance and interest earned on your No-Penalty CD as long as it is 7 days af...
by grok87
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 11 month no pnealty CD 1.55% 1K Minnimum
Replies: 11
Views: 1936

Re: 11 month no pnealty CD 1.55% 1K Minnimum

Sure its no penalty if the bank agrees to give you your money back early. They reserve the right not to. From depositaccounts.com I have a No-Penalty CD. How do I access my funds? You can make a request to access the total balance and interest earned on your No-Penalty CD as long as it is 7 days aft...
by grok87
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Put another way, I think that TIPS "insurance" is currently free, because a significant number of buyers are offsetting it with an emotional aversion to facing up to what real rates currently are paying. Agree. I haven't read the Larry Swedroe source Doc cites. But there are a bunch of federal rese...
by grok87
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

The ft article had a pay wall but I read the pimco one. It was from early 2016 when 5x5 year bei was plunging, down to like 1.5% level. I think it's around 1.8% now. The paragraph I quoted was the key to the FT article. FWIW, I found the article through a Google search and clicking the Google link ...
by grok87
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Here's a random sample: https://blog.pimco.com/en/2016/03/is-the-fed-ignoring-an-important-signal-in-market-data/ Also see https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/02/26/2120296/why-isnt-the-fed-worried-about-collapsing-breakevens/ "The problem with this explanation of the recent decline in breakevens is t...
by grok87
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

I cannot commit to 30 years at current yield levels, but maybe I'll regret that if we experience ILG-like negative real yields in the future. To me, TIPS look attractive vs. nominal Treasuries, but not to CDs. On the secondary market, CD NOMINAL less TIPS REAL rate... 1/15/2023 - 2.36 1/15/2024 - 2...
by grok87
Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Expected inflation = BEI + "tips il-liquidity premium" - "inflation insurance premium" While the model may seem overly complicated, i like it. It starts with the observation that tips are less liquid than regular treasuries, less trading, higher bid-ask spreads, nasty tax rules. I think 30 year BEI...
by grok87
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Put another way, I think that TIPS "insurance" is currently free, because a significant number of buyers are offsetting it with an emotional aversion to facing up to what real rates currently are paying. Agree. I haven't read the Larry Swedroe source Doc cites. But there are a bunch of federal rese...
by grok87
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

1% vs. 0.83% seems tiny. Well it's a 5% price move. If my maths is right (1+0.0017)^30 then it is a 5% difference in terminal wealth, assuming the coupons can be reinvested at the same real rate. That's significant in my books. Thanks Valuethinker. Agree with your analysis. I would be curious re yo...
by grok87
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

If inflation is 1-2%, they'll clearly underperform other fixed income. If inflation is 2%, TIPS will absolutely not underperform nominal treasuries (at any term from 5 years to 30 years currently). If you're introducing agency/corporate/etc. bonds, then we're comparing apples to oranges. Agree
by grok87
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF listing announced
Replies: 8
Views: 1136

Re: Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF listing announced

How is it truly a "Total" Corporate Bond ETF if it is only investment-grade bonds? Would you need high-yield exposure, or at the very least an ETF like iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF (FALN) ? I don't know the answer myself, but it seems strange to call it a "Total" bond fund. Is it simply becau...
by grok87
Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

It's always worth remembering that whether to buy now and whether to buy at auction are two different questions. I personally don't see the appeal of buying at auction simply because you don't find out until afterward what the price/yield are. I prefer to buy bonds in the secondary market where I k...
by grok87
Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

1% vs. 0.83% seems tiny. Well it's a 5% price move. I hear you. But I guess my point is that 5% of bupkes is bupkes...unless you have $500k in TIPS or something. Well let's just say my aim is to source 1/3 of my retirement Income from long term tips. It's the 3-legged stool approach with 1/3 from s...
by grok87
Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

1% vs. 0.83% seems tiny. Well it's a 5% price move. If my maths is right (1+0.0017)^30 then it is a 5% difference in terminal wealth, assuming the coupons can be reinvested at the same real rate. That's significant in my books. Thanks Valuethinker. Agree with your analysis. I would be curious re yo...
by grok87
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Pravin Lol wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:35 pm
1% vs. 0.83% seems tiny.
Well it's a 5% price move.
by grok87
Tue Nov 07, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Just curious what others think about this drop.

I have some new funds available soon to deploy into 30 year tips. I'm on the fence between buying on the secondary market this year or waiting for the next february auction.

Cheers,
Grok
by grok87
Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1946

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

pkcrafter wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:41 pm

I think much of this depends on how you define risk. I define it this way: Not having the money for something important when you need it.
nice definition.
by grok87
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1946

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

One has to be careful. A classic hedge fund strategy is to be relatively hedged in normal times, so low volatility, but stuff the risk into the tails. Then they blow up, the hedge fund managers move on and start another hedge fund. I think its best to assess the risk of an investment not by its curr...
by grok87
Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1094

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

Stock market crashes begin with little dips, but a little dip doesn't predict a stock market crash. The same is true here. I am just using my eyeball here, but there is nothing special at the end of the chart that didn't happen several times before, without anything too bad happening most of the pr...
by grok87
Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 48
Views: 3448

Re: Should one use REITs

The paper from Vanguard was https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icreecr.pdf I note that the original poster initially referred to a "large cap" fund and my reply was to his later mention of total stock market. I worried that as the REITs live mostly in the mid and small cap he might not have a full m...
by grok87
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 48
Views: 3448

Re: Should one use REITs

1) In Unconventional Success, David Swensen recommends the following long-term portfolio (I.e. for horizon's > 10 years): 30% US Stocks 20% International Stocks 20% Real Estate 15% Treasuries 15% TIPs cheers, grok Hi grok - I considered myself fortunate to have attended a lecture of David Swensen a...
by grok87
Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 48
Views: 3448

Re: Should one use REITs

Should one use REITs as a part of diverse portfolio or that would be narrow sector investing and not advised. Charles Swab offers REITs in my 401k plan and was wondering I should stick to large cap, international and bonds. A few thoughts: 1) In Unconventional Success, David Swensen recommends the ...
by grok87
Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 48
Views: 3448

Re: Should one use REITs

Total stock market includes REITs up to their market weight, so you have REITs in the 3 fund portfolio. Vanguard has a paper (I believe) that notes that since most real estate is privately held, the index funds actually underweight REITs; thus direct ownership of REIT funds might bring you closer t...
by grok87
Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on Blackrock Lifepath Index funds (2035 as example)
Replies: 7
Views: 462

Re: Opinions on Blackrock Lifepath Index funds (2035 as example)

Hello Bogleheads, I was hoping to get opinions on the composition of Blackrock's Lifepath Index funds (2035 as an example). They are the target date funds offered in my 401K with an ER of .01. Here is the composition: Name Weight (%) BLACKROCK RUSSELL 1000 INDEX FUND 43.23 ISHARES MSCI TOTAL INTL S...
by grok87
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on Blackrock Lifepath Index funds (2035 as example)
Replies: 7
Views: 462

Re: Opinions on Blackrock Lifepath Index funds (2035 as example)

Hello Bogleheads, I was hoping to get opinions on the composition of Blackrock's Lifepath Index funds (2035 as an example). They are the target date funds offered in my 401K with an ER of .01. Here is the composition: Name Weight (%) BLACKROCK RUSSELL 1000 INDEX FUND 43.23 ISHARES MSCI TOTAL INTL S...
by grok87
Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs Investment
Replies: 14
Views: 983

Re: TIPs Investment

for long term tips there is also an etf LTPZ.

i'm not recommending it, and i don't own it, but maybe worth a look?
by grok87
Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1094

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

I was comparing this chart to actual GDP growth and I'm not sure where the "leading" aspect of these indicators is: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fCzh Perhaps they are leading only in the sense that they get tabulated more quickly than GDP numbers do, so you know you're in a recession or rec...
by grok87
Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading indicators [published] from the FED
Replies: 17
Views: 1094

Re: Leading indicators [published] from the FED

thanks for posting. i was skeptical as well but actually it looks like there may be something there. two indicators that are sometimes mentioned as being predictive of downturns are: 1) The stock market 2) the yield curve the fed indicator uses the yield curve along with other non-market info like p...
by grok87
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Allocation Critique
Replies: 4
Views: 515

Re: Retirement Allocation Critique

20% Total Bond 20% Total International Bond 20% CD Ladder 10% Total Stock 10% Total International 10% Small Value 10% Small International Just looking for some rough ideas. I know it's a significant small tilt and CD's are pretty pathetic but at least they're guaranteed. 1. Are CD's preferable to s...
by grok87
Sun Oct 29, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Replies: 18
Views: 2168

Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Here's the table again, but this time with type=1 in the formula so it exactly matches whitecoatinvestor's result. setting type=1 indicates that the payment is made at the end of the period rather than at the beginning. I'm actually surprised this makes so much of a difference. For the return colum...
by grok87
Sun Oct 29, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Replies: 18
Views: 2168

Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

As it turned out, the annuity payments along with a substantial cash bucket allowed me to go through the 2007-08 downturn without even breathing hard. Thanks for sharing your experience. Your story, and others like it, have convinced me that i don't want the bulk of my retirement income to be depen...
by grok87
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Replies: 18
Views: 2168

Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

it seems to suggest that annuities become a worse deal the older one is. I wasn't at the conference, but imo there are two things to consider. The first is what you're trying to optimize. If you're trying to protect against living too long, it probably makes more sense to compare using the LE+5 col...
by grok87
Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Replies: 18
Views: 2168

Re: 2017 Bogleheads Conference - Annuities: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

thanks i looked through the slides- great detail, very informative. i was interested by white coat investor's last slide. it seems to suggest that annuities become a worse deal the older one is. for example the (expected?) return is 4% for a 60 year old, 3% for 70 year old and -2% for an 80 year old...
by grok87
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New member-hello [Where to get high safe return on new home money]
Replies: 6
Views: 718

Re: New member-hello

Hi, New member but have been a visitor for a while. I will have more detailed financial investing questions eventually as I can compose them in a concise and meaningful manor. I belong to many forums as I have a lot of interests but the professionalism and etiquette on this forum are the best. We j...
by grok87
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Well Do You Know About Retirement Income?
Replies: 40
Views: 4526

Re: How Well Do You Know About Retirement Income?

I got 35/38. Missed some medicare and long term care questions. I was interested to learn that the chances of the 4% safe withdrawal rate not failing in 30 years are maximized (95% confidence level) when one's stock allocation is between 25% and 60%. i didn't realise it coukd be as low as 25%. I'm p...
by grok87
Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]
Replies: 50
Views: 4538

Re: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]

As Ferguson points out, TIAA supported the fiduciary rule. "Contrary to the false assertion in the New York Times article, we were one of the few financial firms to support the fiduciary rule. This support included testimony to the Department of Labor and seven letters of support to the department....
by grok87
Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]
Replies: 50
Views: 4538

Re: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]

This quote is interesting "We aren't concerned with public shareholders, because we don't have any. Any earnings we make are returned to our participants or reinvested in the business, which helps us remain strong to meet our future promises." Yes earnings are returned. But as should be obvious earn...