Search found 7869 matches

by grok87
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

MtnBiker wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:10 pm
grok87 wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:14 pm
Now at 0.85%
Now back up to 1.01%

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... =realyield
yep
by grok87
Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new tax law - does it change calculations for prepay mortgage or muni bonds in taxable?
Replies: 1
Views: 216

Re: new tax law - does it change calculations for prepay mortgage or muni bonds in taxable?

Hello all Want to see if anyone has any information to share and can't find any currently on the forum. With the new tax law - i was wondering if my calculations about my taxable account and prepaying my mortgage change. In 2017, I was in the 33% tax bracket (towards the top of the bracket) so I've...
by grok87
Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends
Replies: 19
Views: 3483

Re: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends

I've seen several sources recently that say that REIT dividends are eligible for the 20% tax break, but dividends from REIT-based mutual funds are NOT eligible--even if the mutual fund is 100% invested in REIT's. Can anyone confirm or deny? this article seems to suggest that the answer is not clear...
by grok87
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Alternative to a Pension (DB )
Replies: 12
Views: 956

Re: Best Alternative to a Pension (DB )

The fear of insurance company failure and exceeding the state guarantee is overstated and discussed as if it would happen as an isolated event. If your SPIA from a large, well-rated insurance company fails (or more likely, simply delays or reduces payments), what do you think is happening in the re...
by grok87
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8296

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

... but I will look at it with an open mind. My two favorite quotes about having an open mind are: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/33052-a-mind-is-like-a-parachute-it-doesn-t-work-if A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open. and https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2627-the-troubl...
by grok87
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8296

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

and i like this one from Taleb Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic. So i think, especially as one gets older, it's prudent to be selective as to what and whose argume...
by grok87
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8296

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

To me, the Boglehead philosophy is investing in low cost, passive funds with exposure to the entire market. This method exposes the investor only to systematic risk, not idiosyncratic risk. That is, our fortunes are tied to the overall economies of the world, not any singular firm or sector. In my ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8296

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

Sure, philosophies can change over time and hopefully the Boglehead philosophy will continue to improve over time. That said, Bogleheads have principled reasons for. Not chasing popular investing trends and so reports that “many people” prefer this or that trend is not, by itself, much of a reason ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 8296

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

... but I will look at it with an open mind. My two favorite quotes about having an open mind are: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/33052-a-mind-is-like-a-parachute-it-doesn-t-work-if A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open. and https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2627-the-troubl...
by grok87
Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Upper Tax Bracket Folks...where to park cash?
Replies: 11
Views: 1792

Re: Upper Tax Bracket Folks...where to park cash?

i like the Vanguard treasury money market as it is exempt from state income tax and currently has a 1.56% sec yield. or you could buy 3 month tbills yielding 1.80%
by grok87
Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 8185

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

harvestbook wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:03 am

After escaping Edward Jones I've tried a couple of times to find a fee-only adviser for a checkup/overview but end up annoyed that they're trying to rope me into AUM crap. Now I just try to keep it simple, learn as I go, and avoid any big mistakes.
that would be my concern as well
by grok87
Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Yes I agree with this approach, save normally but use TIP's for the majority of your bond component, I think that is the only way for someone to get there unless you have tons of income you don't know what to do with. Saving your TIP's run each year for 30 years in retirement is pretty inefficient ...
by grok87
Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 8185

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

The author also writes that planners can "help" clarify the process and "help streamline the nuances of financial planning," although this seems to come from the planners quoted in the article rather than independent reporting of the other side. Yep. As Warren Buffet likes to say, "Don't ask the ba...
by grok87
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 8185

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

In my opinion the real issue is not the damage you might suffer if you don't seek professional advice. The real issue is the all too great likelihood you will suffer severe financial damage because you sought advice. There are very few areas of life where asking for help is more likely to hurt you ...
by grok87
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income
Replies: 21
Views: 2050

Re: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income

+1, about half of my fixed income allocation is in TIAA Traditional, but note that it yields about 4%. If it was only 2.5%, I would probably stick with bonds. One point of comparison is EE savings bonds. While you have to hold them 20 years, they are guaranteed to return 3.5% with no risk of princi...
by grok87
Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 8185

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/20/smarter-living/why-you-should-hire-a-financial-planner.html?action=click&module=Smarter%20Living&pgtype=Homepage Apparently everyone needs to hire a financial planner. Even financial planners should hire other financial planners. “I liken it to WebMD. You can look...
by grok87
Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working care...
by grok87
Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My apologies. When I read this quote “Another thing these ridiculously low long term real yields show is that there is a great deal of very risk averse wealth in the investing world chasing after a limited supply of long term inflation-adjusted safety even if its real yield is laughably low.” I tho...
by grok87
Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

gmaynardkrebs » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:05 am A real yield of less than 1% on the 30Y suggests something quite ominous to me about equities. The 30 year real yield stands as the market's best estimate about about future growth over the next 30 years. I can't see how one can square that with the high rat...
by grok87
Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income
Replies: 21
Views: 2050

Re: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income

Just a data point, almost all my fixed income portion are in TIAA Traditional, a stable value fund. +1, about half of my fixed income allocation is in TIAA Traditional, but note that it yields about 4%. If it was only 2.5%, I would probably stick with bonds. One point of comparison is EE savings bo...
by grok87
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

gmaynardkrebs » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:05 am A real yield of less than 1% on the 30Y suggests something quite ominous to me about equities. The 30 year real yield stands as the market's best estimate about about future growth over the next 30 years. I can't see how one can square that with the high rat...
by grok87
Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees In Search For Portfolio Diversifiers
Replies: 9
Views: 918

Re: Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees In Search For Portfolio Diversifiers

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/04/09/capital-efficiency-trumps-fees-in-the-search-for-portfolio-diversifiers I ran across this article while looking around AdvisorPerspectives.com. The point of the article is that cost is not what matters, it is cost per unit value added. When on...
by grok87
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income
Replies: 21
Views: 2050

Re: Bonds vs. Fixed/Guaranteed Income

Hi everyone, How do you decide whether a fixed rate of income is high enough to avoid risk in the bond market? I have these options available in an employer tax deferred plan: PIMCO Foreign Bond Fund (US-Dollar Hedged, Institutional Class) PIMCO Total Return Fund (Institutional Shares) Vanguard Inf...
by grok87
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

A real yield of less than 1% on the 30Y suggests something quite ominous to me about equities. The 30 year real yield stands as the market's best estimate about about future growth over the next 30 years. I can't see how one can square that with the high rate of real growth in earnings upon which t...
by grok87
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15319

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

i think it's a tail risk issue, as the entire edifice of Wall St is built on pushing products that hide tail risk, as opposed to bearing it themselves. Inflation adjusted annuities simply don't meet their needs, as opposed that of their customers. Agree. They are always pushing people to look at sh...
by grok87
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11098

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

https://www.markovprocesses.com/blog/endowments/yale-endowment-a-levered-60-40/ I didn't see anyone posting this link, so I'll. In summary, it shows Yale's performance was similar to a 60/40 with 50% leverage. That said, I think it's difficult to implement in practice -- not that Yale doesn't have ...
by grok87
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11098

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Okay I am too lazy to read the link, but does it matter? I am sure they hail Mr. Swensen, but he himself CLEARLY states the individual investor should stick with indexes. He himself states the advantage of active is more in private equity, real estate, alternatives, etc... Even if the article is co...
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income
Replies: 7
Views: 879

Re: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income

I believe it can be individual REITs that you would buy in the 1031 exchange not necessarily a REIT fund. For instance one could buy American Tower who own cell towers. The Delaware statutory trusts may be a stumbling block for us. Possibly we won't have as much in capital gains as I first thought....
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income
Replies: 7
Views: 879

Re: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income

A recent article in US News and World Report by Rebecca Lake discusses a 20% tax deduction on REIT dividends. She states that someone in the 39.6% bracket would have pass-through entity dividends taxed at 29.6%. She also discusses using REITs for 1031 exchanges which would delay capital gain taxes ...
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11098

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Recent post at markovprocesses.com suggests that the Yale Portfolio returns could have been achieved with a 60/40 portfolio leveraged at 40%... for less risk than Yale took on. I had trouble copying in the link, but it is also at Abnormalreturns.com, Friday's post (4/13/18). For the last 10 years 6...
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11098

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Recent post at markovprocesses.com suggests that the Yale Portfolio returns could have been achieved with a 60/40 portfolio leveraged at 40%... for less risk than Yale took on. I had trouble copying in the link, but it is also at Abnormalreturns.com, Friday's post (4/13/18). For the last 10 years 6...
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Yale Endowment Report
Replies: 13
Views: 977

Re: 2017 Yale Endowment Report

There is a separate thread on this.

The 10 year average return (cagr) for the Yale endowment was 6.6%. This is the same as the vanguard balanced index for this period.

Pretty funny...
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income
Replies: 7
Views: 879

Re: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income

Taking a stab at answering my own question. First of all a slight correction on OP. The top tax bracket is now 37% and the corresponding 29.6% top REIT dividend tax rate is arrived at by applying (1-20%) to THAT number which gives the 29.6% rate the article mentions. Don’t mean to nit-pick, just try...
by grok87
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income
Replies: 7
Views: 879

Re: Tax reform effect on REIT shareholders income

A recent article in US News and World Report by Rebecca Lake discusses a 20% tax deduction on REIT dividends. She states that someone in the 39.6% bracket would have pass-through entity dividends taxed at 29.6%. She also discusses using REITs for 1031 exchanges which would delay capital gain taxes ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11098

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Yale should use past tense for the claim. They've only generated an annual return of around 8% in the last 10 years, vs 9.7% for US stocks. Not taking sides, but are you asserting that short term returns provide better data than long term returns? There are lots of active funds that have outperform...
by grok87
Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9930

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

thanks.
i'm partial to the 3.5% safe withdrawal rate which some other study suggested is what would have worked historically over the last century or so for a 30 year horizon for a GLOBAL portfolio (i.e. not just US).

if i find it i'll post the link...

cheers,
grok
by grok87
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New York State income tax bracket is not a marginal rate?
Replies: 30
Views: 1890

Re: New York State income tax bracket is not a marginal rate?

Thanks. Good to know,
Are ny state and ct the only ones?
by grok87
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tarp warrants: any owners?
Replies: 6
Views: 460

Re: Tarp warrants: any owners?

I think my options are: 1) sell the warrants 2) exercise and hold the stocks for capital gain reasons till i’m In a lower tax bracket 3) exercise and sell the stocks. I think either 1 or 2 are reasonable, depending on your tax situation, gains on the warrants from purchase, etc. if you bought recen...
by grok87
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tarp warrants: any owners?
Replies: 6
Views: 460

Re: Tarp warrants: any owners?

Are these stocks you would actually want to hold? How big is the tax burden? My inclination is to do #1 if you can take the tax hit, and #2 if you can’t. In a similar situation last year, I split things 50/50, and sold the stock this past January. So half of the gains were in 2017, 1/2 in 2018. tha...
by grok87
Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tarp warrants: any owners?
Replies: 6
Views: 460

Tarp warrants: any owners?

So I wrote about the idea of buying tarp warrants here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=60361 As part of trying the to implement bodie’s Tips/leaps strategy. I did end up buying a few. They start expiring later this year and since they are in the money I need to figure out what to d...
by grok87
Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard notice - retiring our old investment platform
Replies: 50
Views: 6163

Re: vanguard notice - retiring our old investment platform

TravelGeek wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:47 pm
HueyLD wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:08 pm
I told my rep that I would be the last client to convert and she chuckled.
We may have to coordinate that, because I have no plan to convert at this time ;)
+1
by grok87
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard dominating first quarter
Replies: 16
Views: 2522

Re: Vanguard dominating first quarter

1st Qtr Inflows The 10 largest mutual fund providers took in about $74 billion during a volatile first quarter. Vanguard assumed the bulk of those inflows, with $39 billion in net new money. Vanguard is continuing to dominate. There needs to be consolidation soon. What are they dominating? Is it go...
by grok87
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.
Replies: 62
Views: 8346

Re: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.

3funder wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:27 am
Remember -- your portfolio isn't diversified if everything is always going up.
This is the key point.
by grok87
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard dominating first quarter
Replies: 16
Views: 2522

Re: Vanguard dominating first quarter

1st Qtr Inflows The 10 largest mutual fund providers took in about $74 billion during a volatile first quarter. Vanguard assumed the bulk of those inflows, with $39 billion in net new money. Vanguard is continuing to dominate. There needs to be consolidation soon. What are they dominating? Is it go...
by grok87
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4667

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

I think the presentation missed what I consider to be the best use for TIPS--that is for liability matching. As retirees withdrawing from our portfolio for living expenses, we are more concerned about predictable, real cash flow than income. As has been discussed on this board many times, nothing d...
by grok87
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fisher Investments hard sell
Replies: 40
Views: 37775

Re: Fisher Investments hard sell

Those that are inexperienced and in the process of growing are likely consistently underperforming the market with their choices so on option like Fisher is still a positive choice versus self-management. Hmm...getting a certain vibe here... Welcome to the forum ifrisbie. Will look forward to readi...
by grok87
Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fisher Investments hard sell
Replies: 40
Views: 37775

Re: Fisher Investments hard sell

Those that are inexperienced and in the process of growing are likely consistently underperforming the market with their choices so on option like Fisher is still a positive choice versus self-management. Hmm...getting a certain vibe here... Welcome to the forum ifrisbie. Will look forward to readi...
by grok87
Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 137
Views: 11637

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Consternatio partners just broke into the top quartile (17th out of 68). Memo to self- alert CP’s marketing department in case this is short lived...
:)
by grok87
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4667

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

I think the presentation missed what I consider to be the best use for TIPS--that is for liability matching. As retirees withdrawing from our portfolio for living expenses, we are more concerned about predictable, real cash flow than income. As has been discussed on this board many times, nothing d...