Search found 8546 matches

by grok87
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 22
Views: 1067

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

A 50/50 mix of stocks to bonds has not had a losing 5 year period since the great depression. so i'm not trying to talk you into staying with QSPIX. the above statement may be true in nominal terms. But arguably it is real returns that matter. put another way, there were probably years in the 70s/8...
by grok87
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 22
Views: 1067

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

nisiprius wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:06 pm
grok87 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:55 pm
...in unconventional success swensen argues for tips and real estate as assets worth adding to the conventional stock/bond mix in part because of the risk of periods like the stagflationary 70s/80s...
Neither of which is contained in QSPIX. Just saying.
agree.
by grok87
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 22
Views: 1067

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

A 50/50 mix of stocks to bonds has not had a losing 5 year period since the great depression. so i'm not trying to talk you into staying with QSPIX. the above statement may be true in nominal terms. But arguably it is real returns that matter. put another way, there were probably years in the 70s/8...
by grok87
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 22
Views: 1067

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

Please advise regarding QSPIX. I purchased this several years ago based on advice on this forum from Larry Swedroe. This is a liquid alternative fund designed to be part of an overall portfolio. It's beta is very low and it is designed to reduce the fat tail risk at either end of the returns curve....
by grok87
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction
Replies: 40
Views: 4556

Re: REITs - 20% Qualified Income Deduction

great news! just read in the nytimes that the final regs will let reit mutual fund shareholders who hold in taxable accounts get the deduction. awesome news! see page 6 of this link https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/reg-134652-18.pdf i think RIC = mutual fund and here https://home.treasury.gov/news/p...
by grok87
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Section 199A Tax Benefits Of REITs Over Direct Real Estate Investments at Kitces.com by Jeffrey Levine
Replies: 14
Views: 1829

Re: The Section 199A Tax Benefits Of REITs Over Direct Real Estate Investments at Kitces.com by Jeffrey Levine

Is the analysis still the same for the lack of tax law change benefits for REIT funds and ETFs vs individual REITs in taxable? Edit: I’ve been reading some of the Nareit materials on the treatment of mutual funds under 199A. https://www.reit.com/nareit/advocacy/policy/internal-revenue-service-issue...
by grok87
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTEAX Tax Exempt Bond Index Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 687

Re: VTEAX Tax Exempt Bond Index Fund

Going to play devils advocate here. Vteax and vteb the etf May be two share classes of the same fund. That means that vteax May be less at risk of capital gains distributions due to vanguards unique and patented etf structure which lets it wash out capital gains through etf magic. This is not parti...
by grok87
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTEAX Tax Exempt Bond Index Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 687

Re: VTEAX Tax Exempt Bond Index Fund

Going to play devils advocate here. Vteax and vteb the etf May be two share classes of the same fund. That means that vteax May be less at risk of capital gains distributions due to vanguards unique and patented etf structure which lets it wash out capital gains through etf magic. Also I wouldn’t wo...
by grok87
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Section 199A Tax Benefits Of REITs Over Direct Real Estate Investments at Kitces.com by Jeffrey Levine
Replies: 14
Views: 1829

Re: The Section 199A Tax Benefits Of REITs Over Direct Real Estate Investments at Kitces.com by Jeffrey Levine

Is the analysis still the same for the lack of tax law change benefits for REIT funds and ETFs vs individual REITs in taxable? Edit: I’ve been reading some of the Nareit materials on the treatment of mutual funds under 199A. https://www.reit.com/nareit/advocacy/policy/internal-revenue-service-issue...
by grok87
Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: United, American Airlines, Delta--about the same?
Replies: 144
Views: 7773

Re: United, American Airlines, Delta--about the same?

I'm a former management consultant, so flew 2x weekly for a few years. Delta is definitely the best of the 3. Full stop. United and American is a more nuanced comparison, but I would exhaust other options (Southwest, Alaska, etc) before taking a flight from either. Sounds like this isn't going to w...
by grok87
Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2193

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

- Index Linked gilts (TIPS) have yields right now of c. -1.6 to -1.7% (yes, negative real yields). Again that's because pension funds hedge their liabilities using ILGs (final salary pensions here (DB) are indexed to inflation to 5% pa) The UK govt debt market is over £ 1 trillion in size, ILGs are...
by grok87
Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: United, American Airlines, Delta--about the same?
Replies: 144
Views: 7773

Re: United, American, Delta--about the same?

I don't fly too often, but I have flown all the airlines, and I can corroborate the 'Delta > United > American' assessment. I usually try to fly Delta because from my location it connects through DTW, which is a very good airport for connections in multiple ways (nice airport, lower probability of ...
by grok87
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2193

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

If you plan to hold a 30-year bond to maturity, duration risk is irrelevant. Many institutional investors do just that, and buy long bonds to match long-term liabilities. That keeps demand for those bonds high and yields lower than they might otherwise be. There are institutional investors, such as...
by grok87
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 141
Views: 6532

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

So here's my entry:

Consternatio Partners:

Long
Medpace Holdings (MEDP)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Crocs, Inc. (CROX)

Short
CIM (Chimera Investment Corp.)
NLY (Annaly Capital Mgmt.)
MFA (MFA Financial)

cheers,
grok
by grok87
Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 75
Views: 4937

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

To amplify my line of reasoning. I don’t have much insight about near term inflation- say in the next 5-10 years. But longer term, which is why I look at the 20x10 period or 2028-2048, i’m Betting that the fed will deliver on its 2% target for pce. And again CPI tends to run about 25 bps higher tha...
by grok87
Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 75
Views: 4937

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

Just updating in view of market movements Nominal treasuries; 5 yr: 2.64 10 yr: 2.77 30 year: 2.98 Tips 5 yr: 1.10 10 yr: 0.99 30 yr: 1.10 Breakeven inflation 5 year: 1.54 10 yr: 1.78 30 yr: 1.88 5x5: 2.02 20x10: 1.93 Again for long term CPI I think 2.25% is reasonable. So that puts the net Il-liqu...
by grok87
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Can’t speak for grok but if he’s saying that Bogleheads should guard against complacency, or any idea that we have the “magic sauce” that guarantees we’ll be definitely OK “if we Stay the Course,” then that’s worth reflecting on. We like to say that “we don’t know nuthin,” can’t predict the future ...
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

I think looking at Japan market bubble is not being honest at all regarding the current stock market. Back in 1990 Japan stock market was worth something like 55% of the global stock market and the PE of that index was 70 or so while the current US PE is more reasonable 20 or so. Home real estate p...
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

I like the Nikkei examples as what they worst could be. The Nikkei is now 20,000. I like the approach of here is what I am doing in case of a worst case scenario (and I like that the OP says what they are doing). 1. All personal debt paid off (only business rental real estate loans). 2. Minimize ex...
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

How many threads, posts, comments do we need about the legend of the Nikkei? if you prefer looking at the US market, then according to Shiller's data the S&P peaked at 31.3 in September of 1929. 10 years later it was at 12.8- i.e. still down 60% after 10 years. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/dat...
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

oldzey wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:45 pm
Image

Stay the Course! :beer
nice poster!
:sharebeer
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Can’t speak for grok but if he’s saying that Bogleheads should guard against complacency, or any idea that we have the “magic sauce” that guarantees we’ll be definitely OK “if we Stay the Course,” then that’s worth reflecting on. We like to say that “we don’t know nuthin,” can’t predict the future ...
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Can’t speak for grok but if he’s saying that Bogleheads should guard against complacency, or any idea that we have the “magic sauce” that guarantees we’ll be definitely OK “if we Stay the Course,” then that’s worth reflecting on. We like to say that “we don’t know nuthin,” can’t predict the future ...
by grok87
Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Where can I find these magical employer pensions you speak of? They seem to have gone extinct outside the public sector before I entered the labor force. it's a good point. i only have a small pension from a previous employer. so my plan is to build a long term tips ladder to help supplement things...
by grok87
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

How many threads, posts, comments do we need about the legend of the Nikkei? if you prefer looking at the US market, then according to Shiller's data the S&P peaked at 31.3 in September of 1929. 10 years later it was at 12.8- i.e. still down 60% after 10 years. Agree. What is the probability that s...
by grok87
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Keep Calm and Boglehead On! So this is not one of those posts saying “don’t worry the stock market will snap back, buy on the dips.” The market may not come back, or it may not come back for a very long time. Look at the example of Japan. The Nikkei average peaked at 38,000 in 1990. It bottomed out...
by grok87
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

How many threads, posts, comments do we need about the legend of the Nikkei? if you prefer looking at the US market, then according to Shiller's data the S&P peaked at 31.3 in September of 1929. 10 years later it was at 12.8- i.e. still down 60% after 10 years. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/dat...
by grok87
Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

The market may not come back, or it may not come back for a very long time. Look at the example of Japan. The Nikkei average peaked at 38,000 in 1990. It bottomed out 13 years later in 2003 at 7,600, i.e. an 80% drop. And in 2010, 20 years after the peak it was still below $10,000. Thanks for keepi...
by grok87
Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Re: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

I'm personally an advocate for LMP. I'm curious, what was your rational for using LMP to replace 1/3 of your salary? More detail here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245377 "Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning" the idea is to have a balanced approa...
by grok87
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep Calm and Boglehead On!
Replies: 36
Views: 5480

Keep Calm and Boglehead On!

Keep Calm and Boglehead On! So this is not one of those posts saying “don’t worry the stock market will snap back, buy on the dips.” The market may not come back, or it may not come back for a very long time. Look at the example of Japan. The Nikkei average peaked at 38,000 in 1990. It bottomed out ...
by grok87
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 75
Views: 4937

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

Just updating in view of market movements Nominal treasuries; 5 yr: 2.64 10 yr: 2.77 30 year: 2.98 Tips 5 yr: 1.10 10 yr: 0.99 30 yr: 1.10 Breakeven inflation 5 year: 1.54 10 yr: 1.78 30 yr: 1.88 5x5: 2.02 20x10: 1.93 Again for long term CPI I think 2.25% is reasonable. So that puts the net Il-liqu...
by grok87
Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique

just be aware you need to call to cancel. I have found that it is just easier to sell the T-bill than to call in advance and cancel. Of course what you do can depend on how rates have changed since you purchased it but T-bills are bought/sold easily. Settlement on T-bills is T+1 so cash is availabl...
by grok87
Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique

Why not use Vanguard Treasury money market? good point. i started out rolling tbils that fidelity and ended up in Vanguard treasury money market. I appreciate the input on having to call to cancel. I am leaning towards Vanguard treasury money market at this point. A couple factors of potential acco...
by grok87
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique

stlutz wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:45 am
Why not use Vanguard Treasury money market?
good point. i started out rolling tbils that fidelity and ended up in Vanguard treasury money market.
by grok87
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Fidelity T Bill Auto-roll,please critique

I have just sold a primary residence and have 500k in cash in 2 bank accounts. I am not sure if the timing of using this money for either private investments or even housing (but disliked the experience of selling real estate and enjoy renting). I am thinking of putting the money largely into Fidel...
by grok87
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA RE Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 476

Re: TIAA RE Fund

It hold some REITs (stocks). So if it were 10% REITs and they drop 10% then TREA would drop 1% due to that. Seeing such a drop in TREA wouldn't necessarily imply the appraisals of the real buildings were dropping. I don't know the actual numbers inside, but that's my guess as to why it's dropped so...
by grok87
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 148
Views: 15130

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

i personally try to keep my long term tips in tax advantaged space. if high inflation comes, the real return of tips held in a taxable account is not going to be pretty and the possibility of long term high inflation scenarios are pretty much why i hold long term tips.
by grok87
Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 148
Views: 15130

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

Early 30s here. The 3-legged stool is what my grandparents and parents get to rest on. I don't expect to get SS or a pension, so the final leg of personal savings needs to be a stump big enough to sit on by itself. Hopefully it won't get ground into sawdust before I need it. Hi runner540, So the po...
by grok87
Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 148
Views: 15130

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

Thought this might be worTh a bump after the day, week, year that we have had. You only get one retirement. Don’t screw it up.
by grok87
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1608
Views: 223570

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Thanks matjen and thanks for the nice chart. I’m not seeing the 20% drawdown for Vmnfx that you refer to for 15/16. Were you looking at a different line in the chart perhaps? Pleasure was all mine ;-). Confusion probably my fault. What I was trying to point out was how well QSPIX (and now that I lo...
by grok87
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1608
Views: 223570

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

agree. I think the case against QSPIX is simpler if one just follows the money, so to speak. they want management fees of 1.5% to 2%. to acheive this they need to promise high expected returns- say 8% how do they claim to get this from a low beta strategy- leverage! QSPIX is leveraged something lik...
by grok87
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 75
Views: 4937

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

Just updating in view of market movements Nominal treasuries; 5 yr: 2.64 10 yr: 2.77 30 year: 2.98 Tips 5 yr: 1.10 10 yr: 0.99 30 yr: 1.10 Breakeven inflation 5 year: 1.54 10 yr: 1.78 30 yr: 1.88 5x5: 2.02 20x10: 1.93 Again for long term CPI I think 2.25% is reasonable. So that puts the net Il-liqui...
by grok87
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1608
Views: 223570

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I have not analyzed Taylor's post, nor do I know if his numbers take into account management fees, which would be even more disparaging for QSPIX. The criticism of data mining (selective historical period from 2013 through 2018) is a valid one. Personally I think 1926-2018 is also "data mining" for...
by grok87
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Principle Fin Gp Fixed Inc Guaranteed Option
Replies: 6
Views: 1247

Re: Principle Fin Gp Fixed Inc Guaranteed Option

what is it yielding right now? as of 6 months about the annual yield was 1%. that's crazy IMHO when 3 month tbills are yielding like 2.35% https://www.principal.com/allweb/docs/ris/investments/factsheet/01065.pdf cheers grok According to the factsheet they're giving me looks like 2.65% - "net credi...
by grok87
Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Principle Fin Gp Fixed Inc Guaranteed Option
Replies: 6
Views: 1247

Re: Principle Fin Gp Fixed Inc Guaranteed Option

My 401K is administered by The Principal Financial Group. One of my fund choices is called Principal Fixed Income Guaranteed Option. The profile info states the following: "No transfer charges will apply to participants - no redemption fees, early withdrawal charges, or market value adjustments are...
by grok87
Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Finance for normal people
Replies: 6
Views: 1154

Re: Behavioral Finance for normal people

thanks for posting looks interesting What normal investors really want: utilitarian, expressive, and emotional benefits Ask investors what benefits they want from their investments and they are likely to say: high returns with low risk. What more is there to want? In truth, we want more benefits fro...
by grok87
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Annoyingly Expensive HP Ink Cartridges
Replies: 34
Views: 2603

Re: Annoyingly Expensive HP Ink Cartridges

I am going to agree with those saying "graduate to a laser printer," with one caveat. I bought a Brother laser printer four or five years ago--not made any more so I won't give the model--cost something like $250. Color laser printing and two-sided copying . Oh, lovely. A real "office printing" exp...
by grok87
Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Annoyingly Expensive HP Ink Cartridges
Replies: 34
Views: 2603

Re: Annoyingly Expensive HP Ink Cartridges

We gave up on ink cartridges years ago due to some of the same frustrations. Have been really happy with our Brother laser printer. Initial cost is about the same as most inkjet printers, the toner lasts a long time, and have been able to use 3rd party replacement toner. We just go to Walgreens or ...