Search found 8110 matches

by grok87
Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 77
Views: 11187

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Well the QSPIX q2 performance attribution report is out and the reason for the decline is the Value factor. The fund lost 12.6% through loading on the value factor. Carry was the most positive factor with a gain of 3.4% thanks. the value factor for stocks, HML, was about -3.5% for the quarter i thi...
by grok87
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand Morningstar ratings please!
Replies: 14
Views: 706

Re: Help me understand Morningstar ratings please!

probably worth mentioning that morningstar in some cases receives compensation from the funds to use their ratings

https://www.forbes.com/2009/01/29/mutua ... 936f3cb94e
by grok87
Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 Year Tips auction
Replies: 11
Views: 782

Re: 10 Year Tips auction

Do you think the coupon with be .75%? Yes coupon is 0.75%. As it was a reopening auction this was known in advance. No grok, this was a new auction. 10 yr TIPS currently auction as new issues in Jan and July and have auction reopenings on the subsequent odd-numbered months. The 0.75% (3/4%) interes...
by grok87
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 Year Tips auction
Replies: 11
Views: 782

Re: 10 Year Tips auction

drenaud wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:51 pm
Do you think the coupon with be .75%?
Yes coupon is 0.75%. As it was a reopening auction this was known in advance.
by grok87
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 Year Tips auction
Replies: 11
Views: 782

Re: 10 Year Tips auction

Demand was weak. So congrats to those who bought at today’s auction. You got a good deal compared to the secondary market. “Treasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS auction was poorly subscribed Treasury's $13 B 10-year TIPS auction was poorly subscribed and weaker than expected. The offering stopped at 0.762%...
by grok87
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I don't think using leverage is a bad thing for stocks as long as it's done so prudently. It is worth noting though that those stocks you are buying are already levered at the company level. So there is already leverage at play which is amplifying those equity returns up or down for each stock you ...
by grok87
Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard funds for LMP and RP
Replies: 1
Views: 195

Re: Vanguard funds for LMP and RP

I am setting up a Liability Matching Portfolio (LMP) and Risk Portfolio (RP) using Vanguard. Ideally I would like to use one Vanguard fund for the LMP and one Vanguard fund for the RP. Any recommendations? Thanks! Well for your Risk portfolio you could use the life strategy growth fund which is 80/...
by grok87
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Steve Dubner interviews Richard Thaler
Replies: 3
Views: 665

Re: Steve Dubner interviews Richard Thaler

Thanks. I liked Thalers book “misbehaving” and am looking forward to the podcast.
by grok87
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 44
Views: 4538

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

Thanks. I’m going to listen to it.
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

This question tends to get asked when P/E ratios are stretched and risk premiums are low. That alone should give you some pause. As others have noted, margin calls are the biggest difference. But those can be avoided if you maintain relatively low leverage and have cash inflows. For new investors w...
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The other way to think about how much leverage to use, assuming you have a choice, is how much do you believe in the underlying investment that you are leveraging up? there is a leveraged fund that gets talked about here a lot, QSPIX, the aqr style premia fund. That thing is levered 6.3x. https://fu...
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 77
Views: 11187

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Anyone know what the momentum factor returns for q1 and q2 of this year were.
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need help pls
Replies: 19
Views: 1045

Re: need help pls

Hello, I just discovered this website yesterday via google heres my situation: i am 40 y/o with 45k/year income, no debts as in nothing but i do not have any savings/retirement/investments etc.. I messed up my life but right now im back on track and I just realized that its kinda late for me to sav...
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Credit Card Song (1974)
Replies: 2
Views: 457

Re: The Credit Card Song (1974)

runner3081 wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:10 am
This was a great Saturday Night Live Skit about debt:

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live ... uff/n12020
Thanks

I love that snl skit
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Markettimer has a brilliant mind but he started with poor liquidity and shot for the moon, and he dug in deeper on the way down into the worst broadly downtrending market most of us experienced with significant skin in the game. Read the whole story. He was lucid, analytical, and developed self awa...
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Some other thoughts. 1) think in general you want to reduce your mortgage, your home property leverage over time. You start out at 5x leveraged as you say-ie 20% down payment or 20% equity. Arguably by the time you retire you should be 100% equity or 0x leveraged. 2) that does not necessarily mean ...
by grok87
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Right. If you don’t want to risk the hassle of a reverse mortgage then don’t pay off your original mortgage but defease it, ie hold duration matched treasuries or other low risk bonds instead. That was point 2) of my first post on this thread.. If you do a different strategy instead with this house...
by grok87
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

If your retirement savings fail, either due to bad returns or unexpected expenses or a combination of the two, the paid off house provides an alternate source of funds. You can always get a reverse mortgage to help out. I disagree with that line of thinking. If you take the pay-off amount of the ho...
by grok87
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Some other thoughts. 1) think in general you want to reduce your mortgage, your home property leverage over time. You start out at 5x leveraged as you say-ie 20% down payment or 20% equity. Arguably by the time you retire you should be 100% equity or 0x leveraged. Why? Well the way I think about it...
by grok87
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Some other thoughts. 1) think in general you want to reduce your mortgage, your home property leverage over time. You start out at 5x leveraged as you say-ie 20% down payment or 20% equity. Arguably by the time you retire you should be 100% equity or 0x leveraged. 2) that does not necessarily mean ...
by grok87
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11247

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Some other thoughts. 1) think in general you want to reduce your mortgage, your home property leverage over time. You start out at 5x leveraged as you say-ie 20% down payment or 20% equity. Arguably by the time you retire you should be 100% equity or 0x leveraged. 2) that does not necessarily mean y...
by grok87
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2618

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

While it may seem counter intuitive, the more I have, the more conservative have been investing because I have more to lose. I have been very aware of this change occurring over the past 5 years. Many people think this is why the equity risk premium exists and will persists. I would add “and may ev...
by grok87
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed rate reset?
Replies: 30
Views: 5776

Re: PenFed rate reset?

Also you can’t be paid ahead or something like that. Can you clarify? I'd do something that was suggested earlier. Make a principal payment prior to the rate adjustment in order to reduce the total amount of interest paid and adjust based on the recent tax law changes. Are you suggesting I can't pa...
by grok87
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

Thanks. Very interesting. The fed’s focus on the increased RISK of recession feels right to me. Ie there is no certainty. They don’t know MUCH more than the rest of us about what is going on... Just to repost some of the numbers I posted up thread, According to the ny fed model if the 10 yr - 3 mont...
by grok87
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed rate reset?
Replies: 30
Views: 5776

Re: PenFed rate reset?

Thank you so much for the clarifications. They were very helpful! I just checked today and the reset rate is now 4.1875% :( My impression was that the index rate used is the LIBOR. Is this still the case or have they moved over to SOFR? i thought it was 5 year Constant maturity treasury (CMT) https...
by grok87
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

Inverted yield curve and the CAPE at 30? THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. Ever heard that before? Im just talking smack, but any time there is a big bear market, everyone says that it was obvious. I believe in staying the course, but it is prudent as ever to make sure that your risk level matches your asset...
by grok87
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 77
Views: 11187

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Although not as good as a report from Larry Swedroe, this probably includes much of the info that is relevant. Value has struggled but then so has Momentum recently. Gonna have a bad time when that happens at the same time. Stocks Quants Are Reeling From the Worst Run in 8 Years One reason: factors...
by grok87
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

Going back to this question I raised last week: A question partially raised by another thread that's going on now as well. Is there any suggestion that inverting the curve *causes* a recession to occur? Or would the claim simply be that long-term rates tend to be a little "smarter" in economic fore...
by grok87
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dad asked for my help on pension decision that I do not understand
Replies: 43
Views: 3305

Re: Dad asked for my help on pension decision that I do not understand

Not disputing the numbers above but a question: What is the tax impact of taking the lump sum and then buying the annuity? If the 63,021 is "taxed down", then the comparison might not quite be apples to apples A work pension/annuity is an employee benefit, so one would hope it is better than could ...
by grok87
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dad asked for my help on pension decision that I do not understand
Replies: 43
Views: 3305

Re: Dad asked for my help on pension decision that I do not understand

Haven’t looked at the numbers in detail yet. But just want to say the lump sum is almost always a TERRIBLE deal. See this thread for example https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=218067 Unless there is very strong evidence otherwise I would go with the annuity/pension option. Cheers,...
by grok87
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Treasuries before maturity
Replies: 11
Views: 1139

Re: Selling Treasuries before maturity

Fidelity usually has worse spreads than vanguard
by grok87
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?
Replies: 31
Views: 2257

Re: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?

Personally i’m Going with vanguard, fidelity and tiaa. They each do something different for me. Vanguard: mutual funds not brokerage. I hope to be their last customer on their mutual fund platform. Fidelity: brokerage acct, individual treasuries for example. Tiaa: real estate annuity and eventually...
by grok87
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Avocado oil --recommendations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1526

Re: Avocado oil --recommendations?

Can you share the mayonnaise recipe please I use one egg yolk and about 3/4 cup of oil with a couple of tablespoons of vinegar and/or lemon juice and a heaping teaspoon of Dijon mustard and usually add some extra flavoring (chili lime seasoning is a favorite). If you have never made mayo, find a re...
by grok87
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penn Fed 3% 5 year CD's 30% penalty if early withdraw
Replies: 5
Views: 791

Re: Penn Fed 3% 5 year CD's 30% penalty if early withdraw

Hi Got an email today from Penfed.. searched and did not find anyone else talking about this. Minimum investment 1000, could not easily locate maximum allowed. The penalty for early withdraw is 30% of the total amount that would have been earned if you left all funds in for full period. They do ind...
by grok87
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Avocado oil --recommendations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1526

Re: Avocado oil --recommendations?

I bought some at Trader Joe's/ It has very little flavor. I assumed that is normal for avocado oil. Not like olive oil. Am I wrong? The same thing happened to me. I was excited when Trader Joe's started carrying avocado oil and grabbed a bottle but was completely disappointed when I opened it as it...
by grok87
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?
Replies: 31
Views: 2257

Re: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?

Personally i’m Going with vanguard, fidelity and tiaa. They each do something different for me. Vanguard: mutual funds not brokerage. I hope to be their last customer on their mutual fund platform. Fidelity: brokerage acct, individual treasuries for example. Tiaa: real estate annuity and eventually ...
by grok87
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]
Replies: 13
Views: 2389

Re: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]

looks like the wiki is out of date as it fails to mention the funds' international bond holdings I am not quite sure why you say that. The International bonds holdings are made clear in the Funds Allocation section, under the '2015 changes' heading. Their introduction in 2013 is also well documente...
by grok87
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]
Replies: 13
Views: 2389

Re: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]

Based on posts at mutual fund observers the funds only differ in stock bond allocation. In particular the share of us equities to foreign equities is the same for all funds so if you want fewer foreign stocks (or more) than Vanguard thinks you should have you will need to own at least on additional...
by grok87
Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Graphs, like statistics, if tortured sufficiently will confess to the desired conclusion. Few things are as certain as advertised where investing is involved. Whether bonds are safer than stocks varies during a given time frame. Sometimes they are safer (1929 - 1941): sometimes they are riskier (19...
by grok87
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 77
Views: 11187

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

i"m also interested in this. maybe someone can do a factor attribution analysis.
main point is that the fund is very leveraged. check out qslix for a less leveraged version or vasfx for an even less leveraged option.
cheers,
grok
by grok87
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Graphs, like statistics, if tortured sufficiently will confess to the desired conclusion. Few things are as certain as advertised where investing is involved. Whether bonds are safer than stocks varies during a given time frame. Sometimes they are safer (1929 - 1941): sometimes they are riskier (19...
by grok87
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone hear of or invest in Rich Uncles?
Replies: 18
Views: 3447

Re: Anyone hear of or invest in Rich Uncles?

I have listened to their radio advertisements on KFI which is probably the #1 talk radio station in SoCal. The long time trusted DJ's go on and on about how they to are investors and what a great deal Rich Uncles is. I haven't heard much lately as Online Trading Academy seems to have taken Rich Unc...
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

Looking at this chart, it seems like almost every recession since 1954 was proceeded by the Fed Funds Rate increasing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=kmLO FRED: Effective Federal Funds Rate Recession of: 1957-58: Tight monetary policy 1960-61: Another monetary recession 1969-70: ...
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

Looking at this chart, it seems like almost every recession since 1954 was proceeded by the Fed Funds Rate increasing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=kmLO FRED: Effective Federal Funds Rate Recession of: 1957-58: Tight monetary policy 1960-61: Another monetary recession 1969-70: ...
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

This makes a great argument for why 100% stocks has never made sense for me at least - although in 1973 there was really no good place to hide in the U.S. Short-term Treasuries and T-bills looked better than about anything else I've seen, but positive real returns were pretty scarce in that period....
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

For what it's worth the NY Fed apparently uses the 10 yr treasury - 3 month tbill as a recession predictor https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf here is the backup https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html currently model says 12.5%...
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

so probably very difficult to do, but in case you are up for a challenge i'd be interested in seeing the same for Japan starting in say late 1991 for the next two decades, sometimes referred to as the Japanese lost decade or Japan lost "score" (as in four score and 7 years ago...) I believe Forum m...
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5562

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

this was really useful thanks! so probably very difficult to do, but in case you are up for a challenge i'd be interested in seeing the same for Japan starting in say late 1991 for the next two decades, sometimes referred to as the Japanese lost decade or Japan lost "score" (as in four score and 7 y...
by grok87
Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4479

Re: yield curve inversion

For what it's worth the NY Fed apparently uses the 10 yr treasury - 3 month tbill as a recession predictor https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf here is the backup https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html currently model says 12.5% ...