Search found 7913 matches

by grok87
Fri May 25, 2018 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 116
Views: 8055

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

Adding European or Japanese stocks to U.S. stocks you add currency risk, but probably not much if any political risk. Adding South America, China, India, and other emerging markets drastically increases the exposure to black swans caused by war, violent political changes, and government confiscatio...
by grok87
Thu May 24, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do: TIAA traditional vs. TREA?
Replies: 7
Views: 420

Re: What would you do: TIAA traditional vs. TREA?

I am in my mid 20s and have a large portfolio for my age (>0.5 million, mostly in taxable accounts) due to an extremely generous relative. In my current job I have access to a 403(b) with TIAA. The most appealing options there are TIAA traditional (3% guaranteed) and TREA (TIAA real estate). I am c...
by grok87
Tue May 22, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 116
Views: 8055

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

This is a sort of a trick question and I do not want to hide the fact that it's a trick question... but I am going to be tricky enough not to state what I think the explanation is. According to the Credit Suisse Global Returns Yearbook, from 1900 through 2017 (i.e. over a century): The total real r...
by grok87
Tue May 22, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 116
Views: 8055

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

The total real return on a total world stock portfolio, including both US and ex-US stock markets, would have been 5.2%/year. The total real return on a US-only stock portfolio would have been 6.5%/year. If the Bogleheads forum had existed in 1900, why couldn't you have written exactly the same thi...
by grok87
Sat May 19, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3459

Re: TIAA Real Estate

It has been growing at close to the 4% level over the past year, but in the past few months, it has picked up to closer to 6% (0.5% per month). JUst did the math on this. as far as i can figure for 2018 (i.e. since year end) the fund is growing at an annualized rate of 4.5% Is that considered decen...
by grok87
Sat May 19, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3459

Re: TIAA Real Estate

The Wizard wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:58 am
It has been growing at close to the 4% level over the past year, but in the past few months, it has picked up to closer to 6% (0.5% per month).
JUst did the math on this. as far as i can figure for 2018 (i.e. since year end) the fund is growing at an annualized rate of 4.5%
by grok87
Fri May 18, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7011

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

My 5% allocation to VNQ has been the one aspect of my AA I'm least confident in and go back and forth on somewhat often. And my feelings on it are not correlated with the current performance, just a general skepticism that low correlations are a good enough reason to own a sector (since most indivi...
by grok87
Fri May 18, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial times: Wealthfront's experiment in risk parity has a rocky start
Replies: 14
Views: 1760

Re: Financial times: Wealthfront's experiment in risk parity has a rocky start

As a result, the risk budget of the portfolio is not concentrated in equities, but spread more evenly across other asset classes. Any time you hear the phrases "risk budget" and "volatility target" you should run far far away. Risk budget: risk is not something you can budget for. It is wild and fr...
by grok87
Thu May 17, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed rate reset?
Replies: 18
Views: 4193

Re: PenFed rate reset?

Thank you so much for the clarifications. They were very helpful! I just checked today and the reset rate is now 4.1875% :( My impression was that the index rate used is the LIBOR. Is this still the case or have they moved over to SOFR? i thought it was 5 year Constant maturity treasury (CMT) https...
by grok87
Thu May 17, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Very Unique Inflation Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1281

Re: A Very Unique Inflation Fund

Agree this is not unique. Just regular publicly traded assets

If it was some sort of private infrastructure fund then that would be unique.
by grok87
Wed May 16, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return
Replies: 11
Views: 934

Re: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return

I do RE for a living. As I have said before control is everything in real estate. I would never invest passively in a real estate deal ie one I did not control. Also I am sure they are not a benevolent society meaning high fees. I would steer clear. I think the “high fees” comment is the key. Here ...
by grok87
Tue May 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I tell Social Security I retired?
Replies: 32
Views: 3931

Re: Do I tell Social Security I retired?

Just got back today from about a month of travel and found a letter from the SS office alerting me to the fact that it makes no sense to delay SS beyond age 70 and that I should file my return so I can start collecting when I hit the magic age in September. I already had "file for SS" on my to-do l...
by grok87
Fri May 11, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance
Replies: 45
Views: 3403

Re: Long term care insurance

We've pretty much decided to insure ourselves for long term care. I will look into rates, but we are getting older, and have health flags, so it may not even be possible to get it. Then my fear would be they bump the rates and make it un-affordable just when one of us needs it. We'll have good medi...
by grok87
Fri May 11, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3459

Re: TIAA Real Estate

Note: annuitized TREA can also decrease monthly payouts if total return is less than 4% annualized, so one needs to keep on top of this slow moving ship... thanks. i'm a few years of annuitizing but interested to learn how it works. i just read the prospectus section on annuitizing. But i would be ...
by grok87
Thu May 10, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3459

Re: TIAA Real Estate

I have about 10% of my portfolio in TIAA real estate. I view it as a mix between fixed income and equity, and see it's main benefit as having a lower correlation with equities than a typical REIT. The ER is high, but as I understand it, this includes all costs of managing the properties while in a ...
by grok87
Thu May 10, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3459

Re: TIAA Real Estate

Note: annuitized TREA can also decrease monthly payouts if total return is less than 4% annualized, so one needs to keep on top of this slow moving ship... thanks. i'm a few years of annuitizing but interested to learn how it works. i just read the prospectus section on annuitizing. But i would be ...
by grok87
Thu May 10, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 67
Views: 3459

Re: TIAA Real Estate

You may be interested in this link provided by tiaa of faqs https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/performance/REA_FAQ.pdf The expense ratio is somewhat high at 0.85% It is up like 4% over the last year whereas reits have lost money. My aim is to divide my real estate exposure equally between the vanguard ...
by grok87
Tue May 08, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA survey by Forrester?
Replies: 10
Views: 766

Re: TIAA survey by Forrester?

To answer the OP's question, no, I have received no emails about a Forrester survey of TIAA. Every day I get more disapppointed in tiaa cref. My plan has always been to annuitize with them in my 80s but now I don’t know.. TIAA contracts vary by employer, but two things about mine -- it has: - a cut...
by grok87
Tue May 08, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you know anyone unhappy in a CCRC?
Replies: 41
Views: 4530

Re: Do you know anyone unhappy in a CCRC?

My mother lived in one for about 8 years after my father died. It was a good decision for her, as she wouldn't have been able to stay in her house, but there were definitely things she didn't like. The marketing materials are always very shiny and beautiful, but there may be some rot beneath the su...
by grok87
Tue May 08, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA survey by Forrester?
Replies: 10
Views: 766

Re: TIAA survey by Forrester?

We received an "invitation" to participate in a survey for TIAA, by Forrester Research. I'm familiar with Forrest, but there's no clue this is "really them"... just a "link in an email" (presumably from TIAA). Has anyone else received one of these. Yes, I'll contact our WMA guy, but if it's a known...
by grok87
Tue May 08, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 4159

Re: Retirement bonds

I find these bonds to be a very interesting assets for retirement. They are basically zero principal 20 year bonds . Another way to think of them is mini 20 year fixed term income annuities. Yes, sounds nice! (Including the inflation component of course.) I've always kinda wished for zero-coupon TI...
by grok87
Mon May 07, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 58
Views: 4748

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

i wonder why it is important to have an equal volatility weighted portfolio of commodities? It's not so much important as their baseline portfolio for evaluation. I suppose it would be diversified by risk, most so if correlations were equal (which is not true). How would you weight commodities? Som...
by grok87
Sun May 06, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 58
Views: 4748

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

Do you have good insights or studies on actually how predictive the term structure generally is of forward return for commodity futures? To some degree the curve can represent changing expectations of future spot prices, and it's not an indication of a risk premium on one side or the other. I recal...
by grok87
Sun May 06, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 58
Views: 4748

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

may report is out https://data.bloomberglp.com/promo/sites/12/184782_BCOM-May2018Outlook.pdf as per page 5 the index is still in contango at -2.3% energy however is in backwardation to paraphrase Aragorn in LOTR- "a day may come [when it is time to invest in a broad commodity index]..but it is not t...
by grok87
Fri May 04, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rebating buyer's agent for 1st time single-family home purchase
Replies: 40
Views: 2811

Re: Rebating buyer's agent for 1st time single-family home purchase

I haven't read all the responses. You don't pay for the agent, so you are not gaining much by not using one. Yes, some people think they are going to get that money back off the sales price, but it generally doesn't work that way. The seller's agent will just make more money. I would use a rebate a...
by grok87
Fri May 04, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old is too old for a vehicle, even for a well running one ?
Replies: 83
Views: 4931

Re: How old is too old for a vehicle, even for a well running one ?

I’m struggling with this at the moment. I have a 2001 odyssey with like 130k mikes on it that needs a catalytic converter. Dealer is quoting like $1500. What should I do? Take it to a muffler shop and get a non OEM part installed? Or is it time to junk the car? PM me if you are getting P0420 check ...
by grok87
Fri May 04, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old is too old for a vehicle, even for a well running one ?
Replies: 83
Views: 4931

Re: How old is too old for a vehicle, even for a well running one ?

My 3 current cars =============== 1999 Camry 1999 odsyssey 2000 maxima all with ovr 225K miles, one with 255K extended family:- 1990 Eagle Talon Turbo (don't know the mileage) Just slapped "antique" plate on it! There is no limit if you are willing to keep them and the metal is not corroded. I’m st...
by grok87
Fri May 04, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't leave your non-spouse heirs TIRAs with basis, unless you hate them!
Replies: 92
Views: 8279

Re: Don't leave your non-spouse heirs TIRAs with basis, unless you hate them!

House Blend wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 8:25 am
I would use a broader brush:

Don't make non-deductible contributions to an IRA unless a Roth conversion is on the horizon.
+1
by grok87
Fri May 04, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10074

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

Two things I see most people missing: fiber and protein. If you eat protein, and I mean like 1 gram per pound of bodyweight , you won't be hungry, for anything. Fiber is the next thing most people are missing that has wonderful benefits, lowers insulin levels, lowers cholesterol, all kinds of good ...
by grok87
Fri May 04, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old is too old for a vehicle, even for a well running one ?
Replies: 83
Views: 4931

Re: How old is too old for a vehicle, even for a well running one ?

My 3 current cars =============== 1999 Camry 1999 odsyssey 2000 maxima all with ovr 225K miles, one with 255K extended family:- 1990 Eagle Talon Turbo (don't know the mileage) Just slapped "antique" plate on it! There is no limit if you are willing to keep them and the metal is not corroded. I’m st...
by grok87
Thu May 03, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rebating buyer's agent for 1st time single-family home purchase
Replies: 40
Views: 2811

Re: Rebating buyer's agent for 1st time single-family home purchase

From my point of view, there's no downside to getting a buyer's agent. It's the seller who is paying the commission, not the buyer. And if you don't have a buyer's agent, the total commission (usually) isn't going to change, so it's not like you're likely to get a discount because you have no agent...
by grok87
Thu May 03, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Commissions - How Negotiable?
Replies: 31
Views: 1969

Re: Real Estate Commissions - How Negotiable?

My two cents. Standard commission these days is 5% split 50/50 between buyer/seller Agents. Don’t let anyone tell you different. I would try to negotiate seller agent down to 2% but leave the buyer agent at 2.5% or negotiate a fixed dollar fee for seller agent based on like a 2-2.25% rate. It’s a we...
by grok87
Wed May 02, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10074

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

I have been on Keto for a year. Under 20 net carbs per day, but good veggies, fat, protein etc. I have dropped 56 lb. First week sucked so bad due to keto flu and sugar withdrawal. 2nd week sucked 80% as bad. Third week I felt awesome. About a month in my sugar craving disappeared. It only comes ba...
by grok87
Wed May 02, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10074

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

Reubin wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:53 pm
Peanut butter, the natural kind like Smuckers, is about the only thing that stops my sugar cravings. It has plenty of protein in it too.
+1

Obviously the kind with no added sugar
by grok87
Wed May 02, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10074

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

After reading Dr. Jason Fung [Google him], I understood that the goal is not as much to reduce blood sugar as to reduce blood insulin. Protein-rich food does not raise sugar but raises insulin. Thus, the advantages of Low-Carb, High-Fat diets as opposed to protein diets. High-fat food is effective ...
by grok87
Wed May 02, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10074

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

I have been on Keto for a year. Under 20 net carbs per day, but good veggies, fat, protein etc. I have dropped 56 lb. First week sucked so bad due to keto flu and sugar withdrawal. 2nd week sucked 80% as bad. Third week I felt awesome. About a month in my sugar craving disappeared. It only comes ba...
by grok87
Wed May 02, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 10074

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

I have been on Keto for a year. Under 20 net carbs per day, but good veggies, fat, protein etc. I have dropped 56 lb. First week sucked so bad due to keto flu and sugar withdrawal. 2nd week sucked 80% as bad. Third week I felt awesome. About a month in my sugar craving disappeared. It only comes ba...
by grok87
Tue May 01, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7011

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

I read the article. Both papers seem carefully done. But there is something missing from research best practice i think- in sample vs out of sample. The idea is to divide your period into two halves. Do your regression on the first half (in sample). Then see if what you come up with holds for the s...
by grok87
Tue May 01, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7108

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

According to Bloomberg, 5 year TIPS have a yield of 0.72%. Why would I sign up for Ibonds at 0.3%. iBonds are tax-deferred. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/I_Bonds_vs_TIPS and also you can cash out at par at any time (after 1st year) and just lose 3 months of interest. with 5 year tips if you cash ...
by grok87
Tue May 01, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7011

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

A nitpick: REITs are not real estate. Real Estate may very well be special, we don't know. Real estate is definitely special, but it's the mortgage that matters, not the property. There's no better way to short long-term bonds, and long-term bonds are pretty terrible so it's a fantastic short. Inte...
by grok87
Tue May 01, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7011

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

I read the article. Both papers seem carefully done. But there is something missing from research best practice i think- in sample vs out of sample. The idea is to divide your period into two halves. Do your regression on the first half (in sample). Then see if what you come up with holds for the se...
by grok87
Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYt: having the retirement home conversation
Replies: 4
Views: 824

Re: NYt: having the retirement home conversation

I looked at the article, including the photographs (which seemed kind of overdone and "glossy") and then I googled the author "Peter Finch". It seems he writes regularly and consistently about retirement home situations. The article struck me as kind of a marketing effort. The article was too one-s...
by grok87
Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYt: having the retirement home conversation
Replies: 4
Views: 824

NYt: having the retirement home conversation

So i was pretty disappointed in this ny times article in the business section. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/business/retirement-home-move-talk.html Titled “having the retirement home conversation.” I found it very unbalanced- lots of discussion of the benefits of continuing care retirement ...
by grok87
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15895

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

MtnBiker wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:10 pm
grok87 wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:14 pm
Now at 0.85%
Now back up to 1.01%

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... =realyield
yep
by grok87
Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new tax law - does it change calculations for prepay mortgage or muni bonds in taxable?
Replies: 3
Views: 545

Re: new tax law - does it change calculations for prepay mortgage or muni bonds in taxable?

Hello all Want to see if anyone has any information to share and can't find any currently on the forum. With the new tax law - i was wondering if my calculations about my taxable account and prepaying my mortgage change. In 2017, I was in the 33% tax bracket (towards the top of the bracket) so I've...
by grok87
Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends
Replies: 19
Views: 3574

Re: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends

I've seen several sources recently that say that REIT dividends are eligible for the 20% tax break, but dividends from REIT-based mutual funds are NOT eligible--even if the mutual fund is 100% invested in REIT's. Can anyone confirm or deny? this article seems to suggest that the answer is not clear...
by grok87
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Alternative to a Pension (DB )
Replies: 12
Views: 1085

Re: Best Alternative to a Pension (DB )

The fear of insurance company failure and exceeding the state guarantee is overstated and discussed as if it would happen as an isolated event. If your SPIA from a large, well-rated insurance company fails (or more likely, simply delays or reduces payments), what do you think is happening in the re...
by grok87
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 9371

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

... but I will look at it with an open mind. My two favorite quotes about having an open mind are: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/33052-a-mind-is-like-a-parachute-it-doesn-t-work-if A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open. and https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2627-the-troubl...
by grok87
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 197
Views: 9371

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

and i like this one from Taleb Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic. So i think, especially as one gets older, it's prudent to be selective as to what and whose argume...