Search found 8289 matches

by grok87
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I allocate social security in retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1693

Re: How do I allocate social security in retirement?

some discussion here as to how to integrate social security into your retirement income/investing framework

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245377

"the three-legged stool approach to retirement planning"
by grok87
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I allocate social security in retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1693

Re: How do I allocate social security in retirement?

ryman554 wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:11 pm
As the poster above me said, SS is an income stream. Guaranteed. So count as income. Just like a pension.

Then figure out how much income you need from investments. sS is not an investment.
agree.
by grok87
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3692
Views: 1058080

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

the movie alpha.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/alpha_2018/

it was excellent. stunning cinematography and a gripping plot. it has subtitles though for those that care about that.

see it on the big screen if you can.
by grok87
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 1959

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

I think I get plenty of inflation protection from my portfolio: Stocks: As prices rise companies can charge more Bonds: I keep them short term so if rates rise I rapidly have new securities at higher yields and also use TIPS which are indexed to inflation Real Estate: Appreciates in value with infl...
by grok87
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1032

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Everything is survivorship bias. It is a really overused term in my opinion. Even the broad indexes exhibit survivorship bias. As far as I know, no one born in 1865 is still living. In the same way, a whole lot of companies that existed then don't exist today...
by grok87
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't trust Tripadvisor reviews
Replies: 64
Views: 6558

Re: Don't trust Tripadvisor reviews

I knew TripAdvisor was going bad once they started showing reviews that were not posted on TripAdvisor but were pulled in from hotels own websites. You can imagine how objective the latter must be. /s
by grok87
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1032

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Seems that's accounted for HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index: The HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index is a global, asset-weighted index comprised of over 1,500 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fee...
by grok87
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5179

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

Nate79 wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:27 pm
I guess they have to justify that 0.3%.
+1
by grok87
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6066

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I believe it is possible to discover valid statistical patterns in past data, and yet (the part people find really hard to believe) not be able to "employ" them for forecasting "with any assurance of consistent or large profits." yep article cites average momentum premium from 2010 to present at ar...
by grok87
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3201

Re: Pension alternatives

james22 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:49 pm
grok87 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
here it is
Thanks, grok.
my pleasure.
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3201

Re: Pension alternatives

Almost there wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:05 pm
Thank you.

Almost there
my pleasure.
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3201

Re: Pension alternatives

James22 wrote: BAC-L and WFC-L See the 14th post for an annuity comparison: http://boards.fool.com/a-value-opportun ... sort=whole I clicked on above and the discussion was about stock. How do I find the annuity comparison? Almost there here it is The kicker? For $298k this annuity would generate $...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1258

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

TIAA is arguably the best available provider of immediate annuities, both "fixed" (Trad) and variable (TREA and the CREF VAs). i would be interested in hearing more about this. i'm not doubting you but how did you arrive at this conclusion? cheers, grok Well there's no question that older Trad (10 ...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Assets Held In Street Name
Replies: 52
Views: 1396

Re: A Great Reason to Consider Vanguard's Brokerage Services

I assumed that if Fidelity went bankrupt that the Fidelity Funds I own would still be mine. I am mistaken? Whatever assets you hold at Fidelity are not yours now. They're held in street name. They're owned by Fidelity. They're just held in your favor. Fidelity can potentially run into various deals...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If you really like the CR-V, you should check out the [_____]
Replies: 89
Views: 9049

Re: If you really like the CR-V, you should check out the [_____]

Mazda CX-5, Toyota Rav4, Subaru Forrester, Hyundai Tucson & Santa Fe Sport (the Santa Fe Sport is smaller than the mid-size Santa Fe), Ford Escape, Nissan Rogue Toyota is offering 0% financing plus a cash incentive right now on the Rav4 if you're in the market for a new, as opposed to new to you, o...
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1258

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

The Wizard wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:20 am

TIAA is arguably the best available provider of immediate annuities, both "fixed" (Trad) and variable (TREA and the CREF VAs).
i would be interested in hearing more about this. i'm not doubting you but how did you arrive at this conclusion?
cheers,
grok
by grok87
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now
Replies: 22
Views: 1258

Re: TIAA near-retiree begins to consider retirement now

In my opinion, the only reason to stay with TIAA is if you wish to stay in their proprietary funds such as Traditional Annuity and Real Estate, and/or if you plan to annuitize. Personally I am still in accumulation. Any funds that would otherwise be normally invested, I will most certainly roll ove...
by grok87
Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3201

Re: Pension alternatives

In the beginning, you say: If I put $200K in another 4 rental properties, I bet I can get at least $15K a year from the additional properties If you buy a fixed annuity, you will get about $1,000 a month ($12K a year) which is not that far off from $15K without all the associated expenses. Seriousl...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4948

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Investors looking at U.S. stocks at current valuation levels and bonds with rising interest rates are asking: "can I buy anything else?" Maybe commodities or old yellow? T-Bills might not be a bad idea either. Those are at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, so they are not close substitutes. The B...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4948

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backw...
by grok87
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Jeff Albertson wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:54 pm
For a non-fringe view of what caused the housing crisis, see calculatedriskblog.com -
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017 ... using.html
Interesting
Here’s a direct link

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heres-what ... ng-crisis/
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

grok - I have looked at TIPS, REITS, and other "standard" asset classes. TIPS do not seem to do much (though we have not gone through an inflationary environment with the current products, and I am considering them), REITS have a nice CAGR kick but at big increase in volatility (and a bunch of taxe...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7394

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

Hope we all live long lives, but the Brookings Institution Hamilton Project calculated that if you've already made it to 65 (which is good, because nearly a fifth of Americans die before that age): Men have a 90 percent chance of living to 70, 62 percent of living to 80, and just 22 percent of livi...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7394

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

The following is copied from a post by an investor at the the Fidelity website. I assume I am not violating any rules by reproducing it here. The author makes an argument for taking social security benefits at age 66. It would be very interesting to hear what some of the sharp minds here have to sa...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

While I will probably get flack for being simple minded, here is how I benchmark ALT funds like QSPIX. I simply look at how the fund would have affected my current portfolio, as that is all I can test relative to what matters to me. Using PortfolioVisualizer, I look for what I would consider a comp...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA: Help with Payout Options
Replies: 24
Views: 1653

Re: TIAA: Help with Payout Options

I have a small annuity ($55k) split between Traditional and variable. I'm 66, still working as a consultant part-time, and married with 3 adult kids. My husband works full-time. ...I now need to decide how to take my TIAA payout--lifetime or 10 payments over 9 years... Why do you need to decide now...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4948

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Investors looking at U.S. stocks at current valuation levels and bonds with rising interest rates are asking: "can I buy anything else?" Maybe commodities or old yellow? T-Bills might not be a bad idea either. Those are at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, so they are not close substitutes. The B...
by grok87
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Grok Not really back, just posting on occasion to either correct misstatements or to provide answers to questions that others cannot, like the sources of returns to AQR funds this year. As to that leverage, so you would consider a market neutral fund that is 100% long and 100% short to be 100% leve...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Few thing to keep in mind. As noted AQR funds use limited amounts of leverage, maybe 3-4 times and they do so in relatively lower volatility factors. Larry, great to hAve you back posting again! As far as I can tell from qspix’s fact sheet they are 340% long and 310% short. I think of that as being...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

It would be interesting to look at a portfolio of say cash and us stocks that targets a certain level of volatility based on the vix and how that would have performed through say the 1987 crash and the global financial crisis. As opppsed to say a fixed 60/40 stocks/cash portfolio that is periodical...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIAA: Help with Payout Options
Replies: 24
Views: 1653

Re: TIAA: Help with Payout Options

Anybody taking variable payout annuity from the tiaa real estate annuity? I’m considering that
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

I think your last two sentences are key. It would be interesting to look at a portfolio of say cash and us stocks that targets a certain level of volatility based on the vix and how that would have performed through say the 1987 crash and the global financial crisis. As opppsed to say a fixed 60/40...
by grok87
Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

I think your last two sentences are key. It would be interesting to look at a portfolio of say cash and us stocks that targets a certain level of volatility based on the vix and how that would have performed through say the 1987 crash and the global financial crisis. As opppsed to say a fixed 60/40...
by grok87
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?
Replies: 33
Views: 2018

Re: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?

i like the short term corporates to short term treasuries idea. David Swensen advocates bonds being in treasuries and tips. Larry Swedroe likes CDs and treasuries (not the funds, so much), and believes investors are not adequately compensated for corporate bonds.. Agree. I seem to remember Larry al...
by grok87
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

well to state the obvious, then in low volatility times positions are larger. and then volatility spikes and one is forces to liquidate some of one's positions at the worst possible time. sounds like long term capital management to me. Frequently vol spikes prior to the large losses. But even if no...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5146

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

In the FAQ section at the end, Cliff does a great job of explaining some of the rationale behind volatility scaling. It doesn’t just help volatility, it also helps I think correlation to macro events. This is also related to the tracking error pain of “losing unconventionally” Why is this happening...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 27
Views: 1158

Re: Put Options

(Before everybody is telling me I shouldn't trade in options: The amount I'm speculating with represents a tiny portion of our net worth, much less than 1%. If I lose the whole amount, so be it. Call it financial curiosity or gambling, I know it's not investing.) So my question is this: I would lik...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4948

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

more discussion in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=243986&start=50

personally i am waiting for the broad commodity index, bcom, to move into backwardation
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 27
Views: 1158

Re: Put Options

(Before everybody is telling me I shouldn't trade in options: The amount I'm speculating with represents a tiny portion of our net worth, much less than 1%. If I lose the whole amount, so be it. Call it financial curiosity or gambling, I know it's not investing.) So my question is this: I would lik...
by grok87
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?
Replies: 33
Views: 2018

Re: Short Term Market Uncertainty - "Buy" Insurance?

Watching the news recently has caused me to be concerned that the probability of a stock market correction or bear market is currently higher than normal. Without starting a discussion of the news itself the areas of concern are upcoming elections, trade wars and yield curve inversion. Does it make...
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206322

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

For years Morningstar listed the figure without dividends on short sales for the expense ratio for funds like these, including Vanguard Market Neutral. As a matter of consistency, it doesn't make sense to me that this would be included in the expense ratio. It's more along the lines of brokerage ex...
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2623

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:47 pm
Auditionee: Therefore you should pay me lots and lots of money, potentially more than half your long-term return, to protect you from bad behavior I claim low expense ratios will encourage you to engage in.

Casting Director: Next!

PJW
+1
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2623

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

greg24 wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:43 am
Never underestimate the ability of the advisor industry to attempt to portray low costs as a bad thing for investors.
+1
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206322

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisi I was referring to QSPIX (which is the thread title after all and referred to in my post). There has been a long history about the ER on it. Lackey mentioned as well. Check footnotes for net. 1.5 or 1.6. I see footnote 4. That's not total expenses. It's a number AQR thinks is relevant and that...
by grok87
Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206322

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisi I was referring to QSPIX (which is the thread title after all and referred to in my post). There has been a long history about the ER on it. Lackey mentioned as well. Check footnotes for net. 1.5 or 1.6. I see footnote 4. That's not total expenses. It's a number AQR thinks is relevant and that...
by grok87
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2623

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

"Investors are more likely to churn their portfolios as costs drop to nothing" It makes no sense. Supposed ERs are mandated to be 1% among all funds. Churning or not churning doesn't make any difference in your cost. If you are going to churn you just churn from one 1% fund to another 1% fund. Now ...
by grok87
Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206322

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I am curious to hear thoughts on the recent performance of QSPIX. Both the 3-month and YTD performance as of 7/31/18 is -7.41%. Also, I'm not positive but I believe Morningstar downgraded the fund from 5 stars to 4 stars sometime in the past year. I'm thinking this is within the bounds of normal fo...
by grok87
Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ARM Mortgage resetting - what would you do?
Replies: 19
Views: 1178

Re: ARM Mortgage resetting - what would you do?

I too have the PenFed 5/5 and mine is resetting December 1. I wont be in my home longer than another few years so the 5/5 continues to make sense for me. Has anyone had any success negotiating this promo with PenFed? I'm on autopay, never had a late or missed payment, so I'm a good customer; though...