Search found 8441 matches

by grok87
Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interview with Fidelity's Abigail Johnson
Replies: 25
Views: 2831

Re: Interview with Fidelity's Abigail Johnson

wrote: AJ: I’d like to think that people will continue to pay for active management. That’s the core value proposition that we’ve been known for forever. If you look in the brokerage world, we charge very low commissions, but we give the best execution.
any evidence this is true?
by grok87
Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 92
Views: 8586

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

i wonder why it is important to have an equal volatility weighted portfolio of commodities? Cambell R. Harvey et al argue that: The bottom line is that in this sample, the average return of the average commodity futures contract is not statistically different from zero or, stated differently, the a...
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 92
Views: 8586

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

latest data out as of end of october. contango for the bcom index has gotten worse now at -3.4% or -0.3% points worse .
https://data.bloomberglp.com/profession ... r-2018.pdf
see page 16.

so not time to invest in commodities (i.e. CCFs) yet.
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve oddity
Replies: 22
Views: 1393

Re: TIPS yield curve oddity

tips use raw or not seasonally adjusted CPI which can be a little noisy. TIPS yields for maturites < 1 year often display this kind of behavior. Thanks. I found a thread that goes into the details of seasonal yield error: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=150300 thanks. that looks li...
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve oddity
Replies: 22
Views: 1393

Re: TIPS yield curve oddity

2019-Apr-15 has a much higher yield than others maturities. This bond showed up on Vanguard and Fidelity (after market close), and WSJ. Why would a TIPS with less accrued principal, with less than a year left (so short-term gain and interest are taxed the same), pay 2.5 times as much as 2019-Jul-15...
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3911

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

what do folks think of the vanguard liquidity factor etf And Vanguard says proudly "Vanguard U.S. Liquidity Factor ETF (VFLQ) is the first of its kind: No other ETF or mutual fund explicitly targets the liquidity factor." And as I write this Morningstar is showing only $15 m illion-with-an-m in the...
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3911

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

what do folks think of the vanguard liquidity factor etf
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 213966

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I agree the improvement is relatively small, but if it’s an Improvement why not do it? All improvements will individually be only incremental. Dave If we add taxes to inclusion considerations: Annualized returns since inception of QSPIX (according to M*): Before tax = 4.85% After tax = 2.34% Tax ha...
by grok87
Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chess news in interesting right now
Replies: 3
Views: 791

Re: Chess news in interesting right now

An American is in the World Championship Match, Fabiano Caruana. The match is tied. Yesterday, a supercomputer named Sesse found a 30-move checkmate opportunity for black during the Game 6 of the match. But Caruana missed it and even grandmasters were having trouble understanding it: https://www.ch...
by grok87
Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annuity with true COLA built in
Replies: 28
Views: 1963

Re: annuity with true COLA built in

Does anyone actually offer one with a true COLA? AIG The Principal I wouldn't be surprised if Northwesten Mutual has them, as my disability policy through them is indexed to CPI. But as far as I know you can't find anything online -- you need to talk to someone. thanks i didn't know aig offered one
by grok87
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annuity with true COLA built in
Replies: 28
Views: 1963

Re: annuity with true COLA built in

I've been pricing Immediate annuities through the Vanguard link and it looks like can get 1 or 2 or 3 percent increases. Does anyone actually offer one with a true COLA? Maybe for a huge up front payment? Not that I could afford it... :( But it seems like anything else, give it your best guess. I'd...
by grok87
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 213966

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Wow. 3 years, 1400+ posts of extensive discussion, not including other smaller threads. Never seen any active fund got this kind of attention any where. I want to add this to my portfolio of I still can. But is it closed to new investor completely? I checked Fidelity and Vanguard. Even the QSPNX sh...
by grok87
Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Swensen - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?
Replies: 22
Views: 3047

Re: Swensen - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?

Replying to an old topic because I have been reading up a lot on Swensen lately and considering moving to it for retirement because we are most vulnerable to inflation. People have been talking about whether Swensen did or didn’t advocate taking 5% out of his real estate allocation and move it over...
by grok87
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1915

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

New ETF launched about a month ago. Goal is to participate in 70% of the market (total US market) movement via use of leaps (10% of assets) and then have exposure to long treasuries (90% of dollars invested) for the balance of the portfolio. Ignoring the lack of international diversification, this ...
by grok87
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite "free stuff"?
Replies: 137
Views: 10519

Re: Favorite "free stuff"?

drk wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:11 am
I love the little coffee tasters at Trader Joe's.
second that.
by grok87
Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1915

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

New ETF launched about a month ago. Goal is to participate in 70% of the market (total US market) movement via use of leaps (10% of assets) and then have exposure to long treasuries (90% of dollars invested) for the balance of the portfolio. Ignoring the lack of international diversification, this ...
by grok87
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12
Replies: 75
Views: 7957

Re: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12

Just checking on Amazon I see that they say that TurboTax 2018 will be released on November 12. CDs are available for pre-order now. I imagine that the downloaded version will be available on or about November 12. thanks. this is very helpful to know. so many changes in the new tax law, nice to be ...
by grok87
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

I was chatting to an asset manager some time ago, and when I mentioned AQR he said that basically they can be compared to an Audi, which is just a Volkswagen as far as the engine and the essential parts are concerned, but it has leather seats and an embellished interior. My take is that what they d...
by grok87
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

If it is formulaic, where is the formula? Do you mean that literally? https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Datasets thanks. i appreciate the link. But i think my question stands. Not trying to be combative just looking for information. what is the formula that QSPIX uses to invest? Can someone point me to ...
by grok87
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

You do NOT want to compete with those guys. Maybe AQR is smart enough to compete with those guys, but maybe not. I don't want to bet on which shark is smarter. I'll stick to the simple 3-fund portfolio, and just take the average return. I agree! I don’t want to bet on who’s smarter, faster, etc. Bu...
by grok87
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...Go down the list. https://funds.aqr.com/total-returns They pretty much all underperform their benchmarks... I'd love to see that confirmed, but the web page you linked doesn't show the benchmarks. Furthermore, AQR makes it pretty easy on themselves with some of the benchmarks they choose; for ex...
by grok87
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Momentum is picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. Momemntum was down 83% in 2009. This is wrong, momentum is the opposite of that. Mom down in 2009 was mean reversion from 2008. The models are very slow moving. But people do the opposite. If you happen to have a good year in one of these at...
by grok87
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Momentum is picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. Momemntum was down 83% in 2009. This is wrong, momentum is the opposite of that. Mom down in 2009 was mean reversion from 2008. The models are very slow moving. But people do the opposite. If you happen to have a good year in one of these at...
by grok87
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Why should trend following or momentum be a long-term strategy? If a bet on a trend fails, the holding no longer has positive momentum, or it would not have failed, so the strategy moves on to another momentum bet. This means the strategy is unlikely to harvest any mean reversion from failed moment...
by grok87
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Pretty harsh criticism. I too am invested in one of the market neutral funds, QRPRX. From what I understand, the fund is steadfastly adhering to its strategy, which I view as quite passive and formulaic. I agree that there is substantial transparency. This Cliff Asness essay is an excellent read re...
by grok87
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12953

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Vanguards market neutral fund is up 3.3% ytd
by grok87
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cashless warrant exercise - tax consequences?
Replies: 10
Views: 1109

Re: Cashless warrant exercise - tax consequences?

grok - I'm not entirely confident in what brokers may show, for this situation. Do you have outside references for the tax treatment? (i.e. IRS publications, tax code references, or even information/articles from presumably reputable accountants...) Thanks psteinx. No I don’t. Was just relying on t...
by grok87
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cashless warrant exercise - tax consequences?
Replies: 10
Views: 1109

Re: Cashless warrant exercise - tax consequences?

Bumping this - hopefully someone can offer some thoughts, information, and/or references on the tax implications... So you read my post above right? Assuming you have a gain, Your capital gains remain deferrred, ie it carries over to the shares except for the cash you receive in lieu of fractional ...
by grok87
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips on alleviating caffeine withdrawal symptoms?
Replies: 18
Views: 1233

Re: Tips on alleviating caffeine withdrawal symptoms?

I switched to a black tea in the morning followed by a cup of matcha green tea. I react to matcha entirely differently than either black tea or coffee. It is much more of a "slow" release feeling where I don't get jittery, anxious feeling, etc. It gives me something "new" to drink but is helping me...
by grok87
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration matching with TIPS funds instead of buying individual TIPs
Replies: 16
Views: 1244

Re: Duration matching with TIPS funds instead of buying individual TIPs

My objective is to use TIPS in order to provide a given dollar amount in real (inflation adjusted) dollars in 10 years. I could simply purchase a TIP in that amount maturing in 10 years but the problem with that is that the return from TIP assumes that the interest thrown off is re-invested in the ...
by grok87
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8735

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

The book "Unconventional Success" by David Swensen was published in 2005. I would have thought that it would perhaps be updated by now. Very little content in the book is dated. Not sure what an update would need to look like. This is not a book touting the latest fashion. The first part is a prett...
by grok87
Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years
Replies: 31
Views: 2970

Re: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years

Commercial real estate properties like those held by REITs are funded in part by large-scale borrowing from banks and insurance companies. In the lead-up to the financial crisis, there was also an active market for commercial mortgage-backed securities, which largely dried up as a source of financi...
by grok87
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years
Replies: 31
Views: 2970

Re: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years

...Yes during 2008 the correlation went to 1, but that is to be expected as that crisis had its roots in real estate... REITs represent commercial real estate and crashed in late 2008. The crisis in "real estate" occurred in residential real estate in 2006. Please connect the dots for me. I always ...
by grok87
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years
Replies: 31
Views: 2970

Re: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years

You need to look at max drawdown. That's what is terrifying. Indeed, it is pretty gruesome, and is another facet of the higher volatility. I think I’ll pass. I don’t have the stomach for it. :beer Agree with gruesome and terrifying. 2007 was -16.5% 2008 -37.1 Q1 2009 -32.1 Total drawdown for the 9 ...
by grok87
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years
Replies: 31
Views: 2970

Re: REITS have beaten other stocks for 50 years

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/realestate/commercial/14sqft.html Good article thanks. Yeah they were hit with a double whammy. Falling asset prices (the real estate they owned) and surging debt costs- they borrowed short term and were faced with refinancing during the credit crisis. Down 21% in...
by grok87
Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Easy retirement income method.
Replies: 20
Views: 3789

Re: Easy retirement income method.

Relying on dividend income rather than share sales keeps cropping up. Relying on dividend income can work - mainly because that keeps the WR low. There are three main issues with relying on dividends for retirement income: 1. You know what income you need. Dividends are decided by company boards wh...
by grok87
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Easy retirement income method.
Replies: 20
Views: 3789

Re: Easy retirement income method.

It seems one of the biggest risks of a probability SWR strategy is sequence of return. The problem arises when you are forced to sell stocks or bonds at a loss (market crashed, interest rates are rising). My idea is to set up my accounts to sweep all dividends and interest into my cash account. If ...
by grok87
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Easy retirement income method.
Replies: 20
Views: 3789

Re: Easy retirement income method.

It seems one of the biggest risks of a probability SWR strategy is sequence of return. The problem arises when you are forced to sell stocks or bonds at a loss (market crashed, interest rates are rising). My idea is to set up my accounts to sweep all dividends and interest into my cash account. If ...
by grok87
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8735

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

(I have read every Swensen thread on Bogleheads and every single time his thinking on the Yale Endowment and Unconventional Success seem to get combined.) I read the book and really liked it. Swensen is a clear thinker and explained himself well. The purpose seems to be to protect in all environmen...
by grok87
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8735

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

(I have read every Swensen thread on Bogleheads and every single time his thinking on the Yale Endowment and Unconventional Success seem to get combined.) I read the book and really liked it. Swensen is a clear thinker and explained himself well. The purpose seems to be to protect in all environmen...
by grok87
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PhysicianOnFire blog: "Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard: A Step by Step Guide"
Replies: 82
Views: 9180

Re: PhysicianOnFire blog: "Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard: A Step by Step Guide"

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:00 pm
grok87 wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:47 pm
But the poster in the thread I linked said vanguard had flagged such an exchange as a potential wash sale.
I didn't see that. I think the upshot was that something else was the wash.
thanks
by grok87
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PhysicianOnFire blog: "Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard: A Step by Step Guide"
Replies: 82
Views: 9180

Re: PhysicianOnFire blog: "Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard: A Step by Step Guide"

I’m late to this thread. Any concerns about total international and all world ex us as tax loss harvesting partners? I thought vanguard was saying that was a wash sale? See this thread https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=262085 No. All World ex-US does not include small caps. Total...
by grok87
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PhysicianOnFire blog: "Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard: A Step by Step Guide"
Replies: 82
Views: 9180

Re: PhysicianOnFire blog: "Tax Loss Harvesting with Vanguard: A Step by Step Guide"

I’m late to this thread. Any concerns about total international and all world ex us as tax loss harvesting partners? I thought vanguard was saying that was a wash sale?

See this thread
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=262085
by grok87
Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6224

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

Sure, and it shows negative momentum when you include that factor. But that's FF 4 factor and now we have lost sight of profitability which you seemed to be comparing two different funds on. My point was it's so murky that I'm not sure we can really compare funds so accurately, and certainly should...
by grok87
Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who should I believe?
Replies: 48
Views: 7551

Re: Who should I believe?

Do you know the country percentages of the World fund you are considering? Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (GBP) VWRL is probably the best choice for me. It has 54% US stocks, which I like, and a nice mix of all the other areas such as emerging markets, Asia, etc. I had considered an S&P 500 fund, but ...
by grok87
Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6224

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

The loadings show RZV should have out performed IJS don't they? No, it shows RZV has more exposure to certain risk factors. There is never a guarantee that a risk factor will deliver its risk premium, or that factors outside the regression are not explanatory over the period. If not included in the...
by grok87
Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 140
Views: 14006

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

just bumping this cause of all the market volatility... I find the notion of having to bite my nails during retirement because of a volatile stock market to be appalling. My current thinking on retirement is two buckets: a) Money I need. b) Money I want. Category (a) should be funded in as iron-cla...
by grok87
Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6224

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

Yeah, I think you are correct. RZV loads negatively on the investment factor but that is not part of the SP600 screen. It actually has a higher loading on profitability than IJS: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y®ressionType=1&symbols=RZV+IJS&startDate=5%2F1%2F2006&endDate=...
by grok87
Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 168
Views: 18332

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

ah, i see