Search found 9025 matches

by grok87
Mon May 25, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Re: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

I have their 5/5 currently at 2.75% and haven't seen this offer. Is there a link? Mine resets next February and at this point I plan to ride it out and let it adjust, because the refinance rates I'm being offered aren't good (3%+ for a 15-year, 3.5%+ for 30-year) and I'm likely to get that or lower...
by grok87
Sun May 24, 2020 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4772

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Vanguard MM fund yields never dropped below 0.01% for the years that the federal funds rate lower target was 0%, and short-term Treasury yields were barely above 0%. Again, this lasted for multiple years --anyone can verify by using the Vanguard price history search tool. If anyone cares, I can run...
by grok87
Sun May 24, 2020 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4772

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

As noted in a previous thread , this applies to fixed income funds in general right now, not just money market funds. The general concern is that portfolio managers will ratchet up risk to earn enough yield to cover the ER. Investors take the risk, but the risk premium may flow to the fund company ...
by grok87
Sat May 23, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4772

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Vanguard MM fund yields never dropped below 0.01% for the years that the federal funds rate lower target was 0%, and short-term Treasury yields were barely above 0%. Again, this lasted for multiple years --anyone can verify by using the Vanguard price history search tool. If anyone cares, I can run...
by grok87
Sat May 23, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4772

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

TIAA needs to put a warning on their TIAA Real Estate Account as well. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946155/000162828020007192/tiaa-realestate03312020x10q.htm See pp. 69-70. John page 46 COVID-19 Risks. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governmental authorities throughout the world, i...
by grok87
Sat May 23, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4772

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

livesoft wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 10:22 am
TIAA needs to put a warning on their TIAA Real Estate Account as well.
why?
by grok87
Sat May 23, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4772

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Wonder what Vanguard is going to do? I'm not waiting to find out. I believe in 2008-09, Vanguard also had a fee waiver in place for their money market funds. true. but based on current yield curves, we may be in this period of low interest rates for longer. and its possible rates will go negative.
by grok87
Fri May 22, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio

I'm ready to take your feedback to the next level. I'm asking for a recommendation on which book(s) to buy on Amazon by Dr William Bernstein and David Swensen. Both men have authored more than one book. Our public library has zero copies by either author. Thanks. for Swensen I would recommend Uncon...
by grok87
Fri May 22, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio

I'm a long way from retirement but I've thought about this for a while. I think it makes sense to have a year or two's worth of expenses in cash. Ten or more years worth of expenses in something like Target Retirement Income. And the rest primarily in stocks or a fund like LifeStrategy Growth. Some...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Re: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

thanks, are you thinking that in 2 years when the reset would have happened the rate would have been 3.25%? I don't think that's how these loans generally work. i think the rate is the 5 year Constant maturity treasury plus a spread. for my loan the spread is 200 bps. so in 3ish years, if rates are...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Re: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

Just curious if anyone else has received this special "Covid-19 crisis" reset offer? They are not calling it that but i am in order to distinguish it from the standard Penfed 5/5 ARM reset offers that start coming about 6 months before your reset date. As far as i can tell, this offer: 1) Could app...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Re: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

I have a 5/5 ARM and called the other day to ask if they're offering any sort of loan modification to existing customers and they told me no, there is nothing like that. This might be a targeted offer based on how long you have before the reset. Mine just reset last August so there's more than 4 ye...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Re: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

I have a 5/5 ARM and called the other day to ask if they're offering any sort of loan modification to existing customers and they told me no, there is nothing like that. This might be a targeted offer based on how long you have before the reset. Mine just reset last August so there's more than 4 ye...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Re: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

I have their 5/5 currently at 2.75% and haven't seen this offer. Is there a link? Mine resets next February and at this point I plan to ride it out and let it adjust, because the refinance rates I'm being offered aren't good (3%+ for a 15-year, 3.5%+ for 30-year) and I'm likely to get that or lower...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio

Feel free to direct me to the appropriate thread on this site regarding my question, or respond accordingly..... I have a pretty sophisticated spreadsheet to manage and track my assets, investment, and expenses. I use a two year month-to-month projection to drive withdrawals from traditional IRA (I...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?
Replies: 11
Views: 879

Penfed 5/5 ARM Covid-19 Reset Offer?

Just curious if anyone else has received this special "Covid-19 crisis" reset offer? They are not calling it that but i am in order to distinguish it from the standard Penfed 5/5 ARM reset offers that start coming about 6 months before your reset date. As far as i can tell, this offer: 1) Could appl...
by grok87
Thu May 21, 2020 4:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?
Replies: 62
Views: 3750

Re: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?

Or listen to randos on the internet pontificating on vehicles they've never even driven. Wasn't the internet invented for us all to share our convictions about topics for which we have no relevant personal experience? i thought about a ridgeline, but it has no clearance On a positive note, they got...
by grok87
Wed May 20, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?
Replies: 62
Views: 3750

Re: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?

How are you going to use the truck? Significant towing or other heavy use? It’s a want not a need. It would rarely be for truck purposes - ie - buy stuff from home depot for diy projects. Toss bikes in bed to go ride w kids (already have a hitch bike carrier for the subaru). No towing (unless one d...
by grok87
Wed May 20, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 55
Views: 3081

Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

i think this is a bad idea. possibly a sticky FAQ might be helpful
by grok87
Wed May 20, 2020 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no love for REITs?
Replies: 102
Views: 8719

Re: Why no love for REITs?

I'm very on the fence about them. I like the idea that REITs might have relatively low correlations to the general stock market, and I like that they should provide inflation protection. However, I have read that REITs don't provide anything that can't be explained by the Fama-French equity model p...
by grok87
Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5696

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

personally i am assuming an 88% payout- i.e. instead of a 24% haircut i am assuming half of that or a 12% haircut. It depends on your way of thinking. Under current law, and assuming reality comes in as per projections, the payout will be 76% starting in 2034. It could be better, but it also could ...
by grok87
Tue May 19, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no love for REITs?
Replies: 102
Views: 8719

Re: Why no love for REITs?

I'm very on the fence about them. I like the idea that REITs might have relatively low correlations to the general stock market, and I like that they should provide inflation protection. However, I have read that REITs don't provide anything that can't be explained by the Fama-French equity model p...
by grok87
Tue May 19, 2020 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5696

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

Maybe I didn't notice but did the author include the 20%+ reduction in benefits that will occur in the early 2030s? Is this the currently projected shortfall or something specific that is already slated to change?? Just started looking a bit further out at retirement issues so this is of interest.....
by grok87
Mon May 18, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5696

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

Maybe I didn't notice but did the author include the 20%+ reduction in benefits that will occur in the early 2030s? Is this the currently projected shortfall or something specific that is already slated to change?? Just started looking a bit further out at retirement issues so this is of interest.....
by grok87
Sun May 17, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate Movement
Replies: 76
Views: 4692

Re: TIAA Real Estate Movement

i'm holding on to my TIAA Re position. will be interesting to see in a year from now how that compares to the vanguard reit index (which i also own).
cheers,
grok
by grok87
Sun May 17, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds - concerns?
Replies: 31
Views: 2473

Re: Municipal bonds - concerns?

Yes, I would be concerned. Exactly how concerned would depend on the credit rating and state. Very concerned. I have friends that held individual bonds in the financial crisis of 2007/8 and experienced defaults and bankruptcies. Your bonds are your "safe" money and credit quality is extremely impor...
by grok87
Sun May 17, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds - concerns?
Replies: 31
Views: 2473

Re: Municipal bonds - concerns?

My father has several individual municipal bonds in his Ed Jones portfolio. Is there reason for concerns with these given the current economic situation? thanks... tamara I'm more concerned about the "Ed Jones portfolio" part. :shock: Regards, +1. EJ aside too little details to make assessment. In ...
by grok87
Fri May 15, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP now offering annuities
Replies: 11
Views: 1238

Re: AARP now offering annuities

grok87 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:39 am
Stinky wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:29 am
It looks like AARP is pretty much sticking with the types of annuities that Bogleheads find acceptable - SPIA, DIA, MYGA.

Doesn’t look like they’re offering variable annuities or indexed annuities. That’s a good thing.
any inflation protected annuities?
thanks
by grok87
Fri May 15, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP now offering annuities
Replies: 11
Views: 1238

Re: AARP now offering annuities

Stinky wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:29 am
It looks like AARP is pretty much sticking with the types of annuities that Bogleheads find acceptable - SPIA, DIA, MYGA.

Doesn’t look like they’re offering variable annuities or indexed annuities. That’s a good thing.
any inflation protected annuities?
by grok87
Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no love for REITs?
Replies: 102
Views: 8719

Re: Why no love for REITs?

Highly tax inefficient, for one. Dividends from REITs are taxed as ordinary income. Total stock market index has the REITs market-weighted already. No reason to overweight this used to be true but under the new tax law REIT dividends get a bit of a tax break. also the headline yield of reits has re...
by grok87
Fri May 08, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 85
Views: 14006

Re: REITS no longer cheap

REET -28% YTD https://www.ishares.com/us/products/268752/ishares-global-reit-etf thanks. REET is a global reit etf. for purposes of thinking about the valuation of US REITS, it may be useful to think about the YTD returns of the vanguard reit index fund as of 4/30/2020 which is -17.4% https://inves...
by grok87
Fri May 08, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 133
Views: 15843

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

latest report shows contango essentially unchanged from last month at -13.3%
https://data.bloomberglp.com/promo/site ... utlook.pdf
by grok87
Fri May 08, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 85
Views: 14006

Re: REITS no longer cheap

as of may 1 the original link shows a -2.1% discount to NAV
https://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/insights/avgpremnav
by grok87
Thu May 07, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"
Replies: 152
Views: 10369

Re: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"

this thread may be relevant
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=311560
it suggests, roughly, at retirement (say age 65 for example) to be say 42% in bonds/cash.

10 years before retirement one would be 30% in bonds.
by grok87
Wed May 06, 2020 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Inflation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1117

Re: Understanding Impending Inflation?

i think 1 year breakeven inflation in the TIPS market is -1% right now. so market is pricing in deflation in the near term not inflation.
by grok87
Sat May 02, 2020 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculation of yield to maturity for TIPS
Replies: 9
Views: 671

Re: Calculation of yield to maturity for TIPS

Thanks for the reply. I'm surprised to see real interest rates so high at this point, especially since five year real interest rates have been negative this year except for a brief period in the middle of March. This is because the yield curve is steeply inverted at the short end. Here is a chart o...
by grok87
Fri May 01, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculation of yield to maturity for TIPS
Replies: 9
Views: 671

Re: Calculation of yield to maturity for TIPS

The Vanguard site currently offers a TIPS maturing on 4/15/2021 with a yield to maturity of 1.457%. Does that mean that the yield to maturity measured in nominal dollars will be higher than 1.457% if inflation is positive over the next year, or is it possible for TIPS to pay less than their quoted ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT fund in taxable?
Replies: 11
Views: 640

Re: REIT fund in taxable?

there have been some threads on this. i think it is not entirely clear but it is close. i personally divide my reits between taxable and tax deferred.
by grok87
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Five Year TIPS auction next week.
Replies: 6
Views: 1066

Re: Five Year TIPS auction next week.

here is the fly's take https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3078152&headline=-Treasurys--B-year-TIPS-auction-was-was-solid Treasury's $17 B 5-year TIPS auction was was solid Treasury's $17 B 5-year TIPS auction was was solid. The offering priced very well and garnered record participation from ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan
Replies: 22
Views: 1413

Re: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan

adamthesmythe wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 1:28 pm
muddlehead wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:11 pm
Wouldn't the fact interest rates that are tied to the annuities are at the lowest point in history be like, umm, a major factor here.
And one reason to not buy an annuity is fear of inflation.
agree, it is a shame that inflation adjusted annuities are not available for purchase.
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan
Replies: 22
Views: 1413

Re: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan

...Just look at AIG during the last crisis... My wife was not too happy with me for having purchased an annuity from the AIG Life Insurance Company when the screaming headlines about AIG hit in 2008. The AIG Life Insurance Company's financial strength rating dropped to the lowest it could be in and...
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors
Replies: 46
Views: 4094

Re: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors

is SPAXX basically the same thing as VUSXX? Fidelity’s SPAXX is more similar to Vanguard’s VMFXX. Vanguard’s VUSXX is more similar to Fidelity’s FDLXX (which also recently closed to new investors). didn't fdlxx used to have a very high minimum? No idea as the minimum has been $0 for the last couple...
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors
Replies: 46
Views: 4094

Re: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors

I recently (literally this week) moved $200k into VUSXX. Could someone explain what this closure means? Does Vanguard expect more people to hold MMFs and are trying to prevent that? Why? Who is benefitting here? Or: how can I benefit here? TIA vanguard is protecting existing fund holders like you, ...
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors
Replies: 46
Views: 4094

Re: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors

HomeStretch wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:13 am
bugleheadd wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:42 pm
is SPAXX basically the same thing as VUSXX?
Fidelity’s SPAXX is more similar to Vanguard’s VMFXX. Vanguard’s VUSXX is more similar to Fidelity’s FDLXX (which also recently closed to new investors).
didn't fdlxx used to have a very high minimum?
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors
Replies: 46
Views: 4094

Re: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors

printer86 wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:36 pm
It’s my fault. I parked $200k in there on Monday. Now they’re pissed.
this is why we can't have nice things...
:)
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan
Replies: 22
Views: 1413

Re: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan

I would be worried about taking a concentrated risk with an insurer. Just look at AIG during the last crisis. Also you are locking in low rates for the rest of your life, whereas with individual bonds in a ladder you'll get the market rate as you go along. What you give up is the longevity risk poo...
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Combining Investments with Actuarial Science
Replies: 26
Views: 1735

Re: Combining Investments with Actuarial Science

I'm just a regular person in the process of creating a retirement plan. I stumbled upon the bogleheads approach and it looks to be everything I was hoping for. Clear, concise, and do-able. However, it's not clear to me how to ensure I won't run out of retirement income during market ups and downs. ...
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan
Replies: 22
Views: 1413

squaredaway: fewer choosing annuties in TIAA plan

... https://squaredawayblog.bc.edu/squared-away/fewer-choosing-annuities-in-tiaa-plan/ ... "he authors suggested two main reasons for annuities’ waning popularity. First, declining interest rates have reduced the monthly annuity payouts to retirees, meaning that a given amount of savings buys less r...
by grok87
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 85
Views: 14006

Re: REITS no longer cheap

I don't get it. REITs appear to just not be what they used to be! As an alternative the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund is yielding 3.27% with mostly qualified dividends. That beats the REIT funds adjusted yield of 2.28%. agree, i keep my reits mostly in taxable as they get some benefits un...