Search found 9131 matches

by grok87
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability matching in a low interest rate world
Replies: 12
Views: 1028

Re: Liability matching in a low interest rate world

How do various organizations invest long term to guarantee their liabilities ? I read a user post here that Endowments invest 60/40 but is that true and what return are they counting on and what are they buying ? Then there are pensions. What do they invest in to guarantee that they meet their need...
by grok87
Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2836

Re: Current state of TIPS market

Is the 3.6% 30 day SEC yield on Ishares Tips ETF STIP accurate? thank you It is not an accurate indication of the current yield. See the disclaimer Blackrock provides about 30-day yield: "An exceptionally high 30-Day SEC yield may be attributable to a rise in the inflation rate, which might not be ...
by grok87
Fri Aug 21, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term Treasury -0.2%
Replies: 10
Views: 1389

Re: Vanguard Short Term Treasury -0.2%

Vanguard short term treasury now has 30 day sec yield -0.20%. Is Vanguard going to start charging for me holding this fund? If so, are there still any benefits of holding this over just buying a 3 months CD yield 0.10% or just holding cash for free? the vanguard short term treasury admiral index fu...
by grok87
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matching Bond Duration to Retirement Timeline Question
Replies: 125
Views: 6313

Re: Matching Bond Duration to Retirement Timeline Question

Grok probably has the best idea with planning early and buying individual long term TIPS to match anticipated spending. I don't really see how a bond portfolio accomplishes the same thing. Approximates it perhaps... What I've seen grok describe is very sensible-- a bucketing approach where assets a...
by grok87
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matching Bond Duration to Retirement Timeline Question
Replies: 125
Views: 6313

Re: Matching Bond Duration to Retirement Timeline Question

Grok probably has the best idea with planning early and buying individual long term TIPS to match anticipated spending. I don't really see how a bond portfolio accomplishes the same thing. Approximates it perhaps... What I've seen grok describe is very sensible-- a bucketing approach where assets a...
by grok87
Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors
Replies: 52
Views: 5010

Re: Press Release 4/16/20– Vanguard Closes Treasury Money Market Fund to New Investors

I got into VUSXX a few weeks before it closed. However, given where its yield is relative to online savings accounts, my balance is a bit below the initial minimum and headed much lower as I move cash to Ally. I know I'm at risk of being forced out of the fund with a low balance, and I know the fun...
by grok87
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 94
Views: 15960

Re: REITS no longer cheap

now at 6.9% premium to NAV
by grok87
Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)
Replies: 9
Views: 1071

Re: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)

Reviving an older post … I’m using EMMA to check a certain bond’s trade history, to try to see if I’m getting a decent bid on a bond I’d like to sell. But the bond is thinly traded; the last trade was in October 2019, and of course interest rates are down significantly since then. Is there some sit...
by grok87
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)
Replies: 9
Views: 1071

Re: How to Liquidate Individual Municipal Bonds (and get the best price)

Reviving an older post … I’m using EMMA to check a certain bond’s trade history, to try to see if I’m getting a decent bid on a bond I’d like to sell. But the bond is thinly traded; the last trade was in October 2019, and of course interest rates are down significantly since then. Is there some sit...
by grok87
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5959

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

This article gives the pros for buying TIPs now (you can scroll down to the "TIPS" section.) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retirees-should-consider-todays-most-unpopular-investment-heres-why-2020-07-20 the article claims you can buy an inflation adjusted annuity. i think that is false but i wou...
by grok87
Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5959

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

From morningstar, comparing VIPSX (Vanguard tips fund) and VSIGX (vanguard intermediate treasury index fund) which have roughly similar durations: fund ... 10 yr [extracting only 10-year comparison from Grok's table] vsigx ... 3.26 vipsx ... 3.56 ... Why have tips outperformed? Because inflation EX...
by grok87
Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5959

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

So Grok, what should an investor do now? Should we buying TIPS? I am reluctant when I see negative real rates for both TIPS and nominal treasuries. If inflation stays very low, TIPS purchased now will produce negative real returns. Pretty much, TIPS are a bet on a resurgence of inflation. I have 12...
by grok87
Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5959

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

just chiming in to say that TIPS have now outperformed nominal treasuries over almost all recent time periods. from morningstar, comparing VIPSX (Vanguard tips fund) and VSIGX (vanguard intermediate treasury index fund) which have roughly similar durations: fund.........3mo...........ytd..............
by grok87
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5959

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

just chiming in to say that TIPS have now outperformed nominal treasuries over almost all recent time periods. from morningstar, comparing VIPSX (Vanguard tips fund) and VSIGX (vanguard intermediate treasury index fund) which have roughly similar durations: fund.........3mo...........ytd...........1...
by grok87
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen
Replies: 64
Views: 3997

Re: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen

I am early retired, living off dividends. I like the simplicity of a fund like LTPZ. Where should I put the TIPS fund. In my Roth, traditional IRA, or taxable? The traditional advice would probably be to put something like LTPZ in a traditional IRA if you've got the space there for it, preserving t...
by grok87
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a (mortgage) lender do this? [prepayment question]
Replies: 10
Views: 1235

Re: Can a (mortgage) lender do this?

So, I refinanced. Got a good rate and all was good. My mortgage was transferred to another lender (Mr. Cooper), and I noticed that there was a note regarding prepayment policy that effectively stated the equivalence of this: partial payment will be accepted, but the lender will place those in a sid...
by grok87
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen
Replies: 64
Views: 3997

Re: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen

Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen In the previous post in this series, https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245377 I argued for a “3-legged stool” approach to retirement investing consisting of: a) Social Security, b) Pension/Long-term TIPS, c) Risk Portfolio of Sto...
by grok87
Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5781

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

My current allocation is 60% equities (40% US / 20% INTL) 35% Bonds (MUNI / BND) 5% REIT My rebalance "band" is telling me to add more to REIT. However looking at the Covid impact on commercial real estate, I'm wondering if I should shrink my current REIT allocation smaller. I'm not asking to specu...
by grok87
Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.
Replies: 87
Views: 4602

Re: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.

Gold’s appeal is all in the mind. Historically it has proven a poor hedge against inflation as well as showing poor price appreciation. It and all other commodities are poor investments for anyone who isn’t either extracting from the earth or putting them to industrial use. I would rather put every...
by grok87
Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5781

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

re the YTD return, the vanguard reit fund VGLSX is down 15% ytd. the CPPI index for commercial real estate that Greenstreet calculates is down 11.3% one might suspect stock valuations account for the difference. but again per greenstreet reits are trading at a similar premium to NAV now as compared...
by grok87
Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS up today
Replies: 5
Views: 817

Re: REITS up today

HappyJack wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:36 pm Thanks grok
Yes, I have been following that one. I still have a ways to go until I can get my nose above water with my REIT. Hoping for some more good days.
best of luck HappyJack.
there is also this thread
viewtopic.php?t=281875
cheers,
by grok87
Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS up today
Replies: 5
Views: 817

Re: REITS up today

this thread may be of interest
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=319815
by grok87
Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5781

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

grok 87 wrote regarding Vanguard's REIT Fund yield: thanks. interesting article. only quibble is that the yield is not really 4%ish. per vanguard's website the true yield is 2.8% from Vanguard REIT SEC Yield: The current unadjusted effective yield is 3.73% as of 06/30/2020, which is based on the fu...
by grok87
Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5781

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

Here's an interesting perspective on Vanguard's domestic REIT index... https://moneyandmarkets.com/reits-not-your-grandfathers-real-estate/ The author is Charles Sizemore, CFA, who runs an investment advisory firm in Dallas. Here's an excerpt from the article... Here’s a breakdown of VNQ’s portfoli...
by grok87
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5781

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

I do not think REITs are required or necessary. They are included in Total Stock and the International REIT/RE (big difference from US) is included in Total International. Own the haystack rather than look for the needle in the haystack. it's a reasonable point of view. The argument for including c...
by grok87
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this SPIA a bad idea?
Replies: 68
Views: 5368

Re: Why is this SPIA a bad idea?

We have around $400k that we would like to buy a lump sum SPIA with or without COLA 2%. ( we have other savings) We would like to use that to supplement our Social Security. We are in our late 50's . Why is this a bad idea? do you have a pension? and any flexibility as to when to take it? when were...
by grok87
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7002

Re: Possible Move from CDs to TIPS in 2024

The simplest and most flexible approach is probably just an old-fashioned stock/bond portfolio (e.g. 50% stock fund and 50% duration-matched TIPS fund(s)). I like this plan the best. MAYBE just get the duration matched funds...VAIPX and LTPZ and call it a day? Buying individual TIPS is probably opt...
by grok87
Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding short term TIPS in 50:50 three fund Portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 801

Re: Adding short term TIPS in 50:50 three fund Portfolio?

I'm seeing the 2020 target date fund at Vanguard has 8% short term TIPS. I'm considering adding short term TIPS to a three fund bogleheads portolio (actually four fund with international bonds similar to target date fund) for a family member given concerns for inflation. Not sure if I should even d...
by grok87
Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 1843

Re: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

Caution: Past correlation is not a guarantee of future correlation. agree. lately treasuries have been the "zag" to stocks zig. but back in the 70s/80s they weren't- it was a stagflationary environment with rising inflation and rising rates (treaasuries were losers) and poor real stock returns. per...
by grok87
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bond funds: LQD versus VTC
Replies: 2
Views: 316

Re: Corporate bond funds: LQD versus VTC

I wouldn't trust that 3.05% yield for VTC. Vanguard's Long Term Corporate ETF (VCLT) has a much longer average maturity, and its current SEC yield is only 2.94%. Yield to maturity for VTC is listed as 2.2%, compared to 3.2% for VCLT. I think the actual expected return for VCT is going to be very cl...
by grok87
Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7002

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

Thanks, vineviz - super helpful. Just for my understanding, if there is a prolonged downturn would we expect the March intraday or intraweek anomalies to persist for a longer period of time, or is it purely a blip after the initial selling and liquidity issues. In March, the downturn was quite shor...
by grok87
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7002

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

I'm starting to think about my bonds as a safety component but I'm wondering if TIPs should have a large part in the portfolio if this is the expected behavior. Two things were going on in March that you're seeing in these charts. One was a liquidity shock that manifested across virtually all class...
by grok87
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant

... my delay which will result in 132% of my PIA at age 70 two years from now, ... In my case at age 82, once the law took effect in 2034, my benefit with a 24% reduction would be 108% of PIA. If I had filed at FRA my benefit would be reduced to 76% of PIA. You seem to assume, vested1, that any red...
by grok87
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My office job in NYC has just gone remote for the rest of the year. Can I reduce my tax burden by moving to Florida?
Replies: 92
Views: 8702

Re: My office job in NYC has just gone remote for the rest of the year. Can I reduce my tax burden by moving to Florida?

See NY’s Telecommuting Tax Penalty – Biglaw Investor and https://www.tax.ny.gov/pdf/memos/income/m06_5i.pdf, and consider how that applies to your situation. This is the only response to OP that is actually helpful. While most states apply a “physical presence” test, New York applies a “convenience...
by grok87
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity SMA (Separately Managed Account)
Replies: 15
Views: 5702

Re: Fidelity SMA (Separately Managed Account)

Others may disagree. I posted this on a different thread (a bit edited here): Approximately 15% of our assets are in Fidelity’s “tax advantaged” SMA. This account mirrors the S&P 500 in return but is Managed to harvest tax losses. We’ve been in it for over 2 years and love it. Even with the roughly...
by grok87
Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

according to the latest trustees report (will try to link later), social security retirement benefits are forecasted, under current law, to be cut 24% starting in 2034. i.e. you will only get 76% of your check. this may be something for some people to factor in. for example if you are turning 62 in...
by grok87
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5781

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

I gave up on investing in REIT's after learning that the results can be replicated with a combination of small value and corporate bonds. I also didn't like the idea that I was making a specific sector bet. See: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-real-estate-isnt-special?nop...
by grok87
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Observations from this year's tax preparation (related to investments)
Replies: 33
Views: 2439

Re: Observations from this year's tax preparation (related to investments)

2) Treasury bonds / bond funds have 2 distributions: 1) Interest (state-tax-exempt, federal-taxed), 2) Dividends (taxed as ordinary income). Therefore, avoid them in taxable accounts. I also think this doesn't sound right. Treasury bond funds in taxable accounts have distributions which are subject...
by grok87
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

my base case is that the law as it exists now will remain the same- i.e. no legislative changes to social security are made. the forecast of the 24% is done by the Social Security actuaries and is the base case. if i remember correctly there is a high and low scenario as well. I too noticed that wh...
by grok87
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Observations from this year's tax preparation (related to investments)
Replies: 33
Views: 2439

Re: Observations from this year's tax preparation (related to investments)

ThisJustIn wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:06 pm

2) Treasury bonds / bond funds have 2 distributions: 1) Interest (state-tax-exempt, federal-taxed), 2) Dividends (taxed as ordinary income). Therefore, avoid them in taxable accounts.

not sure about this one
by grok87
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

according to the latest trustees report (will try to link later), social security retirement benefits are forecasted, under current law, to be cut 24% starting in 2034. i.e. you will only get 76% of your check. this may be something for some people to factor in. for example if you are turning 62 in...
by grok87
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

according to the latest trustees report (will try to link later), social security retirement benefits are forecasted, under current law, to be cut 24% starting in 2034. i.e. you will only get 76% of your check. this may be something for some people to factor in. for example if you are turning 62 in...
by grok87
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

according to the latest trustees report (will try to link later), social security retirement benefits are forecasted, under current law, to be cut 24% starting in 2034. i.e. you will only get 76% of your check. this may be something for some people to factor in. Investors should realize that there ...
by grok87
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 13069

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

according to the latest trustees report (will try to link later), social security retirement benefits are forecasted, under current law, to be cut 24% starting in 2034. i.e. you will only get 76% of your check. this may be something for some people to factor in. for example if you are turning 62 in ...
by grok87
Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value @ 100%
Replies: 14
Views: 1569

Re: Small Cap Value @ 100%

Even if there are long term problems in the US it won't be "like Japan" and I wouldn't use what happened in Japan over the last 30 years to predict the future. Among other key differences are US demographics (positive population growth) and ability of US treasury to borrow substantial sums of money...
by grok87
Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Alternatives in the time of Zero rates
Replies: 151
Views: 13568

Re: Brighthouse Shield Annuities.

I'm considering using these products in my traditional IRA to replace a portion, not all, of my bond mutual funds. These got a bad rap on our forum when comparing them to no load index stock mutual funds mostly because they don't pay dividends. But the commenters did not discuss them as an alternat...
by grok87
Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 145
Views: 15725

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

OK.....the chapter entitled "Regression to the mean"....either he doesn't get the concept or I don't, or maybe I read the text wrong, but I don't think so. (I would hope it is me since I didn't write a best selling book about it.) He starts with two anecdotes about two fighter pilot cadets and two ...
by grok87
Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Bogleheads soured on TIPS due to performance or structure?
Replies: 41
Views: 2565

Re: Have Bogleheads soured on TIPS due to performance or structure?

William Bernstein said on Bogleheads on Apr 4: "Finally, TIPS are usually a fine holding for defeasing years and decades of upcoming consumption needs, though their current prices and yields are atrocious." https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5160087#p5160087 Agree with Bernstein's quo...
by grok87
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?
Replies: 86
Views: 7924

Re: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?

I always thought muni bonds were "safe" now we know they aren't. I have used this fund for years. I always knew there was risk because it was "high yield" but the risk finally showed up. Larry Swedroe in his bond book recommended only AAA/AA munis. He also liked intermediate or shorter. I was alway...
by grok87
Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Must Listen! Dr. Burton Malkiel is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast.
Replies: 112
Views: 9562

Re: A Must Listen! Dr. Burton Malkiel is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast.

Just finished listening, thank you for creating and sharing this excellent podcast. I'm curious to hear what others think about the EMQQ fund mentioned by Malkiel at the end. A quick search on the forums turns up a couple threads from years ago where the opinions voiced were not too favorable. The ...