Search found 1290 matches

by ryman554
Sat May 02, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 162
Views: 10122

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

A couple of points regarding the 4% by Bengen / Trinity Study; (1) The 4% as Bengen defined it, is impractical to use in real life. No one in their right mind is going to year in and year out adjust previous year's withdrawal for inflation when the market is heading through the floor. Retirees will...
by ryman554
Sat May 02, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]
Replies: 35
Views: 3876

Re: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]

I watched my retirement investments drop precipitously in the Tech Crash, in the Real Estate Crash, and now again. There has to be a better way, lol. And you watched them soar between each, but you don't remember that. If you were happy in mid 2019, you should be happy now. Why aren't you? There is...
by ryman554
Sat May 02, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]
Replies: 35
Views: 3876

Re: [Cashed out in panic, how to get back in?]

I’d rather be 30/70 and keep dry power during the current volatility and that’s my current allocation 5 years from retirement. I just moved from 70/30. Depending on when you moved 70/30 to 30/70, that was a behavioral mistake. Moving 5% / year over 8 years? OK. I get the feeling to want more bonds ...
by ryman554
Fri May 01, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION?
Replies: 33
Views: 2822

Re: A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION?

RIMDBogle wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 1:16 pm

What do you think about this?

I agree. I also agree with the statement that a 40% GAIN could hit next year.

Wow, how can both be true? What is one to do?
by ryman554
Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31482

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The goal of insurance isn't to improve your net worth. The goal of insurance is to reduce the risk of really bad events, and that's what a SPIA does: it reduces both sequence of return risk and longevity risk for the retiree. Longevity risk, yes. Sequence of return? Perhaps, depends on how you look...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Frequent trading restriction and Auto investments
Replies: 8
Views: 426

Re: Frequent trading restriction and Auto investments

Look in the prospectus for your fund for details on frequent trading limitations. That's different than the frequent trading restriction that the OP is talking about. What you are talking about is a fee (1%?) for a specific fund for selling within 90 days or so. That is a short-term trading fee and...
by ryman554
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1975

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

1) 40% of my compensation is in RSUs, which are cashed on vesting. So in that sense, I'm vested in the company's stock performance as a portion of earnings. 4) ESPP holdings are <5% of my liquid portfolio, <2.5% of net worth. The risk is concentrated, but small. So "how much risk" I'm taking is neg...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1975

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

1) 40% of my compensation is in RSUs, which are cashed on vesting. So in that sense, I'm vested in the company's stock performance as a portion of earnings. 4) ESPP holdings are <5% of my liquid portfolio, <2.5% of net worth. The risk is concentrated, but small. So "how much risk" I'm taking is neg...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1975

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

Why is it limited to $3k profit per year ? Is it a IRS profit limit ? . A perpetual 60% return. Please back up the truck, too bad it's limited to ~$3k of profit per year, there is nothing else like it out there. IRS limit: the purchase of max. $25k before discount per year. Gain may be much more th...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1975

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

Why is it limited to $3k profit per year ? Is it a IRS profit limit ? . A perpetual 60% return. Please back up the truck, too bad it's limited to ~$3k of profit per year, there is nothing else like it out there. They're assuming you sell ASAP. (I don't sell ASAP, and my gains have been ~80% on aver...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1975

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

Why is it limited to $3k profit per year ? Is it a IRS profit limit ? . A perpetual 60% return. Please back up the truck, too bad it's limited to ~$3k of profit per year, there is nothing else like it out there. Contribution limit* of $25k a year. That limits your upside. (I believe the limit is mo...
by ryman554
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1975

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

So, I will take my ESPP benefits but it just don't sit well, given it is still an individual stock. It's not an individual stock. (other than for a couple of hours) It's much more like a supercharged EE bond. You put aside money (with no interest) for 6 months. At the end of six months, they give o...
by ryman554
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7648

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

https://i.redd.it/jl0mlnlnk0p41.jpg What do you think? That the numbers don't mean what you think they mean. Name me a previous recession that was so... sudden. In the end, you'll want to integrate the area under the curve to see the real effect. A delta function may look tall, but it's area is onl...
by ryman554
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why did some asserts with stand market drop?
Replies: 6
Views: 644

Re: Why did some asserts with stand market drop?

I''m gonna be kind of blunt here... This is very fundamental to investing. You need to know why treasuries are "safer" than equities. And, consequently, why treasuries don't make you (real) money in good times, and why you need your equities to grow you nest egg so you can retire (perhaps with a lot...
by ryman554
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, Where Are You *Back* To in Time? (And Were You Happy Then?)
Replies: 63
Views: 3810

Re: So, Where Are You *Back* To in Time? (And Were You Happy Then?)

Going back to the *first* time I achieve this, early-mid 2018. Saw it on the way down xmas of 2018. Saw it again Jan of 2019 or so. Saw it on the way down March 12 or so I'm sure I'll see it sometime in the future, too. I did withdraw some funds last August to get a new roof done. I like it that my ...
by ryman554
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of COVID19 on Real Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 6081

Re: Effect of COVID19 on Real Estate

Sounds like the landlord should have been a better landlord... Good landlords (you know, like the ones that are reasonable and have reasonable tenants) don't end up in situations like this. Well when people lose their jobs, struggle and are uncertain about the future, reasonable tenants priorities ...
by ryman554
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of COVID19 on Real Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 6081

Re: Effect of COVID19 on Real Estate

I realize this is extreme but I am so glad I didn't dip my toes into this. https://np.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/fotvwa/please_help_my_tenants_organized_and_are_saying/ PLEASE HELP. My tenants organized and are saying they won't pay rent this month. ALL OF THEM. What can I do? Sounds...
by ryman554
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Replies: 20
Views: 1121

Re: Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?

I rebalance every month as my new bolus of taxable money comes in. I buy what I am low on in taxable. Sometimes I rejigger a bit in my 401(k) where I hold all of my asset classes (as in buying bonds like hotcakes as stocks went up and up and up the past couple of years), but I have a spreadsheet all...
by ryman554
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments
Replies: 51
Views: 2532

Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

I think a lot of people have probably already caught it and recovered from it. The NYT ran an article about an epidemiologist in California who was so frustrated with the CDC she went ahead and tested for coronavirus on her own in a local population. She found, within a short period of time, that t...
by ryman554
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments
Replies: 51
Views: 2532

Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

I think a lot of people have probably already caught it and recovered from it. The NYT ran an article about an epidemiologist in California who was so frustrated with the CDC she went ahead and tested for coronavirus on her own in a local population. She found, within a short period of time, that t...
by ryman554
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments
Replies: 51
Views: 2532

Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Covid-19 is not Ebola. I'm more afraid of the panic than the virus. I'm not seeing exponential growth and it's been almost two months since the first case in the US. You're right, it is not. It's potentially more deadly to the group because it's less fatal to the one. I (almost) 100% agree with you...
by ryman554
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments
Replies: 51
Views: 2532

Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Also, the regular flu kills between 16,000 and 60,000 a year. And millions of people don’t bother getting a free vaccine for it.... While I agree with the sentiment that it's overblown, there are ~3million people in the US 80+. That's the average age of death so far due to this virus. At a lower es...
by ryman554
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments
Replies: 51
Views: 2532

Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

dunkmachine wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
The biggest eye opener for me was seeing that 30% of the population doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
And how does this statistic affect the transmission of this virus? Do we know it's transmitted via urine and/or feces? Or just via spittle droplets?
by ryman554
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10211

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

We've heard many say that early accumulators should be praying for a market downturn because this results in higher expected forward returns. That being said, I'm wondering how many early accumulators are actually rejoicing for the current downturn. A large stock crisis (e.g. 30% drop or more) last...
by ryman554
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10211

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Goodness gracious me, those that are "excited about this" really need to look back in history. Just not too long.... Here's my 80/20 investment profile: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1sg25Ny8AlAdO-Bng2UvWgiQITTHYanUl We're back to September. A whole 6 months ago... If we're backing...
by ryman554
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10211

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Goodness gracious me, those that are "excited about this" really need to look back in history. Just not too long.... Here's my 80/20 investment profile: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1sg25Ny8AlAdO-Bng2UvWgiQITTHYanUl We're back to September. A whole 6 months ago... If we're backing ...
by ryman554
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fidelity 401k brokerage link:Tracking Pre/Post tax
Replies: 7
Views: 378

Re: fidelity 401k brokerage link:Tracking Pre/Post tax

Ok, called and talked to the rep. So it's not possible in my account, but what he did say anytime you invest, money is taken in equal proportions. So 50-50 until you are down to one only... I think for me one option is to send pretax to one of the funds offered and only move post tax to brokerage l...
by ryman554
Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stocks... would you?
Replies: 125
Views: 8393

Re: Single stocks... would you?

Why? I am still getting the equivalent of 5% dividend on my cost basis. That's not a valid way to look at it. You must look at the return based on the present value, because the present value represents the amount you COULD be getting a return on elsewhere. If you buy for $5.00, and the stock appre...
by ryman554
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stocks... would you?
Replies: 125
Views: 8393

Re: Single stocks... would you?

I honestly want the single stock folks to give me a big hint without releasing their ip. INTC is the only stock position in my portfolio. When I bought it, it had a PE < 12 (the S&P was much higher) and dividend > 3%, low debt, and I knew a lot of folks working there and they all said good things a...
by ryman554
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stocks... would you?
Replies: 125
Views: 8393

Re: Single stocks... would you?

With the rise of bigger and bigger data, where can we honestly hope to find any alpha anymore? You buy single stocks because you believe they are mispriced. When there are literally armies of quants and computers with unlimited pocket books sitting milliseconds away from the stock exchange actively...
by ryman554
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stocks... would you?
Replies: 125
Views: 8393

Re: Single stocks... would you?

I honestly want the single stock folks to give me a big hint without releasing their ip. INTC is the only stock position in my portfolio. When I bought it, it had a PE < 12 (the S&P was much higher) and dividend > 3%, low debt, and I knew a lot of folks working there and they all said good things a...
by ryman554
Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).
Replies: 273
Views: 18841

Re: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).

With zero volatility, 1.22% real returns guarantee that the '4% rule' works (i.e. full capital depletion). It is 1.22% if one gets an interest free loan for up to 12 months (the withdrawal for a year is made at the end of the year). For those who cannot get an interest free loan for up to 12 months...
by ryman554
Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stocks... would you?
Replies: 125
Views: 8393

Re: Single stocks... would you?

I can and I do. The real question is, do you want (and have confidence in your ability) to manage your own portfolio (stocks) or do you want someone else to manage it for you (mutual funds). With the rise of bigger and bigger data, where can we honestly hope to find any alpha anymore? You buy singl...
by ryman554
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did (will) your accumulation phase end?
Replies: 36
Views: 3372

Re: When did (will) your accumulation phase end?

I am still contributing, maybe 5-6 years out from retirement, but it is true that at this point the contributions don’t really move the needle that much in terms of what sort of income stream i am likely to have when I quit working. I have even considered dialing back the workplace savings to gener...
by ryman554
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103716

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

What’s interesting (and good news if you ask me) is that if you bootstrap this you make it 40 years of retirement with money to spare. I.E.: 2000 - 2019 at 4% inflation adjusted, 60/40 leaves you with $1,080,000 at the end of 2019 withdrawing $61,000 Start this person over in 2000 with 1,080,000 bu...
by ryman554
Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth conversion 5 year rule when >59.5?
Replies: 4
Views: 636

Re: Roth conversion 5 year rule when >59.5?

The ordering rules say that distributions from a Roth come out contributions first, then conversions oldest first, then finally earnings the same way the table below is ordered. You can look at the >59.5 y.o. part of the table for when the first/oldest Roth is < 5 y.o. and see that everything but t...
by ryman554
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Tax Forms start to be available
Replies: 11
Views: 1234

Re: Fidelity Tax Forms start to be available

If you hold some types of mutual funds (especially REIT ETF/funds), it can take a while for the 1099 to be generated, since brokers have to wait to get info from the MFs. And in the case of REITs, I think it goes REIT -> ETF/Fund -> Brokerage. Yup. In my case, the delay is due to an international i...
by ryman554
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity HSA Investment
Replies: 27
Views: 2850

Re: Fidelity HSA Investment

Hello, I am looking into rolling over my HSA (through my employer) to Fidelity. I am currently 31 years old and have 15k (cash) saved in my HSA account currently. My plan is to leave the money there for 25 plus years. I was wondering if it best to invest in the Fidelity Freedom Fund Index 2055 (FFL...
by ryman554
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP - company giving a do-over option
Replies: 17
Views: 1325

Re: ESPP - company giving a do-over option

2-years seems like a long time. I would pass on this “opportunity”. It's still a guaranteed 15% ROI. (in this case, actually is 15%: 15% discount rate, average time cash is in plan = 1 year) Tough to turn that down if you can manage the cash. The $$ involved is pretty low due to IRS limits, so it's...
by ryman554
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP - company giving a do-over option
Replies: 17
Views: 1325

Re: ESPP - company giving a do-over option

2-years seems like a long time. I would pass on this “opportunity”. It's still a guaranteed 15% ROI. (in this case, actually is 15%: 15% discount rate, average time cash is in plan = 1 year) Tough to turn that down if you can manage the cash. The $$ involved is pretty low due to IRS limits, so it's...
by ryman554
Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP - company giving a do-over option
Replies: 17
Views: 1325

Re: ESPP - company giving a do-over option

I wouldn't go anywhere near this ESPP. The memories of Enron haven't faded. Regards, And how does that relate to the OP at hand? The OP asked for thoughts, so here are mine. From the OP. "For anyone that started their 2 year period in early 2019, you can literally get all your money back and start ...
by ryman554
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How best to finance renovation when home is paid off?
Replies: 18
Views: 1465

Re: How best to finance renovation when home is paid off?

We are looking at a fairly large (six figure) renovation in the next year or so. Our mortgage was recently paid off. I know there are several ways to finance a large project like this, but my question is: should the lack of a mortgage influence how we finance the renovation? What would be the best ...
by ryman554
Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP - company giving a do-over option
Replies: 17
Views: 1325

Re: ESPP - company giving a do-over option

I wouldn't go anywhere near this ESPP. The memories of Enron haven't faded. Regards, And how does that relate to the OP at hand? The OP doesn't actually purchase the stock until the 2-year mark. Until then, it's sitting.. well... somewhere, doing "nothing". Assuming the OP can sell at 2 years and a...
by ryman554
Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approaching Roth IRA Income Limit; When/How to Transition to Backdoor?
Replies: 31
Views: 1864

Re: Approaching Roth IRA Income Limit; When/How to Transition to Backdoor?

1. There is a small downside if you need to withdraw contributions without penalty before agree 59.5 (assuming you've already had a Roth acct > 5 years). You will not be able to withdraw contribution amounts from the conversion penalty free until 5 years after the conversion. See here for more deta...
by ryman554
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103716

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Interesting thread. I do find it interesting in all of the retirement talk (on this web site) about a 4% SWR that some people seem to obsess about withdrawing a fixed rate. Most of us have never had a consistent salary year to year. People get raises, get laid off, take higher or lower paying jobs,...
by ryman554
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approaching Roth IRA Income Limit; When/How to Transition to Backdoor?
Replies: 31
Views: 1864

Re: Approaching Roth IRA Income Limit; When/How to Transition to Backdoor?

1. There is a small downside if you need to withdraw contributions without penalty before agree 59.5 (assuming you've already had a Roth acct > 5 years). You will not be able to withdraw contribution amounts from the conversion penalty free until 5 years after the conversion. See here for more deta...
by ryman554
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103716

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

It's time for another update on our hypothetical year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule of thumb'. Another way of looking at this is to ask, after 20 years of withdrawals where do Year 2000 retirees fall compared to all other retirement cohorts at their 20th year ? https://miro.medium.com/max/807/1*...
by ryman554
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approaching Roth IRA Income Limit; When/How to Transition to Backdoor?
Replies: 31
Views: 1864

Re: Approaching Roth IRA Income Limit; When/How to Transition to Backdoor?

There is a lot of talk here about waiting to do or don't the backdoor. But isn't the right answer: contribute to a Roth when you're in the phaseout region, and make sure you have nothing in your tIRA. When you do your taxes, you know how much direct roth is available and how much isn't, so recharact...
by ryman554
Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct Discounts for 2019 version
Replies: 35
Views: 3466

Re: TaxAct Discounts for 2019 version

I see all the complaints about TaxAct increasing their prices, but I'm looking into using it for my mother's trust and estate tax returns. Two returns. Does anybody have any other suggestions for software that would be compatible with a MAC and can be used for trusts and estates? TurboTax HR Block ...
by ryman554
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA worth it given salary / income dynamics?
Replies: 18
Views: 1504

Re: IRA worth it given salary / income dynamics?

To tack on to summarize what the OP should do: 1. Roll the existing tIRA into the workplace 401(k). 1a: Make sure there is no non-deductible stuff currently in the tIRA. If there is, you need to leave the non-deductible contributions behind as part of the rollover. 2. Once the rollover has happened,...