Search found 1212 matches

by ryman554
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area budget for $350k family income
Replies: 94
Views: 6599

Re: Bay Area budget for $350k family income

HSA for people with 2 small kids? Seriously? Why is 401k quoted everywhere? Is not that common to have a large 401k match. Backdoor Roth is not some kind of additional income. Of course FS exaggerates, he always does, that is his thing. But the idea remains: BA is very expensive and what if seems l...
by ryman554
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Baseline income options for early retirees?
Replies: 18
Views: 2062

Re: Baseline income options for early retirees?

A lot of you are suggesting a lower SWR / higher savings. What you don't realize is just *how much* higher one's savings has to be in order to use a variable percentage withdrawal. If you want to cover all your expenses this way, you have to salt away 50 times your annual expenses to handle somethi...
by ryman554
Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax breach settlement update?
Replies: 45
Views: 3226

Re: Equifax breach settlement update?

I wonder if they will accept the free creditkarma monitoring I've had for years and still have. It's credit monitoring, isn't it? I also have creditWise via capital one 360, and they irritate me monthly with "updates". And there is the credit monitoring via Chase (My Credit Journey)... I tried to l...
by ryman554
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Yet Another] How much house can I afford ?
Replies: 28
Views: 2917

Re: [Yet Another] How much house can I afford ?

What about kids and how do they play with your income assumptions? Can you do the 2.6MM? Sure. But you also lock yourself in longer to the hamster wheel of silicon valley. The 1.7M house will spring you free much sooner. Kids don't bring in any income so they have nothing to do with income assumpti...
by ryman554
Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 199
Views: 13533

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/rick-ferri%E2%80%99s-30-year-market-forecast?nopaging=1 Well, you were right. My respect for Rick has gone down another notch. I don't see how you were getting 2.5% real returns expected from a 60/40 portfolio. Rick is forecasting 1.9% real for 10 ...
by ryman554
Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Yet Another] How much house can I afford ?
Replies: 28
Views: 2917

Re: [Yet Another] How much house can I afford ?

Bogleheads, I'm about to embark on the most significant financial decision of my life. Will really appreciate your opinion. Location: SF Bay Area. Age : 42/36 . Total income 380k . Stable jobs. NW $2.6M (even split between taxable and retirement) . Options * $1.7M house - very basic, not very desir...
by ryman554
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 662
Views: 47866

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

So with these 3% or 4% and we leave money on the table, and we go underground, what is the use ???? I'm sure your heirs/charities can find a use. Also does the 3 % or 4 % or even 10% depends on the pot, how much one has in their portfolio ? To first order, no. Time left to live, as life gets short,...
by ryman554
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I purchase a $30k car?
Replies: 112
Views: 7349

Re: Should I purchase a $30k car?

You really aren't buying a 30K car. You are buying a 30K + Prior Lease Payments car. This is not relevant in any way. The lease decision was already made. To buy it or not is a completely new decision. I disagree. You already paid for part of the car (that is now worthless), and are essentially pay...
by ryman554
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity 401k rebalance to Brokeragelink?
Replies: 5
Views: 438

Re: Fidelity 401k rebalance to Brokeragelink?

Thank you to everyone for your time. I had been trying to perform the transfer using the "rebalance" tab. It would pull up a list of all account funds which you would add desired individual percentages to. Though while shown, it would not allow the BrokerageLink percentage to be changed. Following ...
by ryman554
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4547

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I do know that chart, but also thought I saw something similar with leverage showing about a 140% sweet spot. I can't be certain. Still,.I have wondered what "risk adjusted return" really means... Clearly 100/0 will give you a larger expected return than 80/20 (or 0/100)! Over the long run. So, how...
by ryman554
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4547

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I'm speechless in return. Please provide your definition of "too much risk" using data. Just because it's too risky for you (and me, by the way!) shouldn't invalidate someone else's risk profile. You can search for the best risk-adjusted return of a potential portfolio using historical return figur...
by ryman554
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4547

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates are very low. That makes bonds less attractive to buy (although the ones I've held for a while have obviously made me a ton of money). It also makes it cheaper to borrow money to buy stocks. I have around 30 years until retirement, so am thinking of following market timer, hedgefundi...
by ryman554
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4547

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

What does leverage have anything to do with being a Boglehead? ... More risk does not a non-boglehead make. It actually does. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy More than 100% of your assets in stocks is "too much risk" by any Boglehead definition. OP is also try...
by ryman554
Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4547

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates are very low. That makes bonds less attractive to buy (although the ones I've held for a while have obviously made me a ton of money). It also makes it cheaper to borrow money to buy stocks. I have around 30 years until retirement, so am thinking of following market timer, hedgefundi...
by ryman554
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads have higher IQs!
Replies: 21
Views: 1384

Re: Bogleheads have higher IQs!

I have a high IQ and I'm still really stupid most of the time.

That's a roundabout way of saying that IQ doesn't measure what you think it measures, nor is it a particularly meaningful metric worth highlighting.

Let's just focus on doing the right thing without trying to feel smug about it.
by ryman554
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paying mortgage vs bonds for a medium term (5-7 year) duration
Replies: 9
Views: 668

Re: Paying mortgage vs bonds for a medium term (5-7 year) duration

Thanks for the comments so far. I don't deduct mortgage interest. I haven't been able to find a way to beat the standard deduction yet, although i need to explore that more. I didn't realize my current mortgage terms were so sub par. I will need explore refinance options and costs. Guyfromgeorgia, ...
by ryman554
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"
Replies: 45
Views: 10802

Re: Is anyone here allocated 30/70 a la Rick Ferri's "new center of gravity?"

Hola Bogleheads! I believe the center of gravity shifts when a person stops accumulating assets and starts taking income from their assets. The corrected ideal asset allocation for beginning a discussion on asset allocation with a pre-retiree or retiree is 30% stocks and 70% bonds. https://seekinga...
by ryman554
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fired my advisor today so I created AUMM [Assets Under My Management]
Replies: 22
Views: 2346

Re: Fired my advisor today so I created AUMM

student wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:24 pm
Maybe you can charge yourself 0.5% fee so that you can use it to pay for a vacation. :happy
That's actually not a horrible idea....
by ryman554
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 59053

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

As was stated by someone else in this thread, that is "backward looking". There is no way to know what will happen in the future. For the ability to buy low and sell high two uncorrelated asset classes, I'll take my chances and take my bonus. You can do as you wish, of course. When you pull the tri...
by ryman554
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 59053

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Having accumulated with 100% stocks in the longest bull market in history, I would consider being able to take those returns and going to 80/20 a bonus. The reason why is that those past returns are already captured and no longer carry any risk, and that the 20% bonds may provide more of what the i...
by ryman554
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 59053

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I don't know why I had to explain it, then, if it's portfolio 101, but there you go. I don't view bonds as having 0% real rate of return, and as a counterpart with equities they play a good role in many portfolios. You can assess all day long. I am not trying to convince you or anyone else to manag...
by ryman554
Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 59053

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

fortyofforty wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:28 pm
I'll take my chances at 80/20 and enjoy my bonus, thank you very much.
You keep saying this.

Please specifically define the "bonus" you are "enjoying".
by ryman554
Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 12130

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

The yield is already too low for me. I might invest in bonds if yields ever get above 4%. That is a strange threshold. If yields are 4% and inflation 5%, you would invest, but when yields are 2.5-3% (today ish) and inflation 2% ish, you would not? There must be a different underlying reason....
by ryman554
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From ex-dividend to distrubution where is my money?
Replies: 101
Views: 5645

Re: From ex-dividend to distrubution where is my money?

On a total side note, my megacorp used to pay their dividend to us stockholders in the 401K on the ex-dividend date. We were getting our dividend in the form of company stock at the price at the end of the day on the ex-dividend date. Now that our 401K is managed by Fido, we get it on the pay date....
by ryman554
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Responding to a CP2000 Notice
Replies: 56
Views: 4592

Re: Responding to a CP2000 Notice

If you have a tax preparer why isn't he dealing with all of this? He prepared the documents, we met in person, and I brought them home. While reviewing them at home, I found one error and pointed this out to him. He modified the documents and sent them by email. I want him to review the whole packa...
by ryman554
Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discrepancy between Matketwatch and Fidelity
Replies: 21
Views: 1341

Re: Discrepancy between Matketwatch and Fidelity

Chart VTIAX from 5/31/2018 to 6/23/2019. Here you go . Look at the start and end dollar amounts for 5/31/2018 to 5/31/2019. Then look at what the start and end amounts are for 6/23/2018 to 6/23/2019 to see the difference in growth between the two overlapping 1 year periods. #blessed [edited to make...
by ryman554
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: mechanics of backdoor roth conversion for MFJ couple
Replies: 7
Views: 541

Re: mechanics of backdoor roth conversion for MFJ couple

I believe I can contribute up to $12,000 to an IRA account for subsequent conversion to a roth IRA (backdoor), as the limit entails $6k each for me and my spouse. Can I do a single transaction with $12k? or do I need to do two separate transactions for $6k each, since the limits are for individuals...
by ryman554
Wed May 08, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I will inherit 2Mil What to do with it?
Replies: 54
Views: 8409

Re: I will inherit 2Mil What to do with it?

It is mine now, but I promised my dad I would not touch it until he passes. He is in Hospice now. This worries me. How do you have it without actually inheriting it? If it was a gift -- that's fine, but realize you do not get a step-up in basis, so there may be significant taxes due when you sell. ...
by ryman554
Tue May 07, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I tried to fire my financial advisor of 12 years today...
Replies: 127
Views: 14245

Re: I tried to fire my financial advisor of 12 years today...

Great job. I also fired my investing guy, who charged me 1.4% to own funds that sometimes charged me 1% or more. He tried to put me in load funds but caught the fire in my eye when he suggested it. I realized I could make as many mistakes as he made, and for free. Most angering of all, I was ready ...
by ryman554
Fri May 03, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Company IPO'd. What's Next?
Replies: 37
Views: 4193

Re: Company IPO'd. What's Next?

If OP's $4m is still in company stock, it is not $4m. It's nothing. If so, getting the tax CPA on this ASAP is critical. And selling. I have (sort of) been there, and seen it go down 90%. I was never worth £1m, except on paper. Exactly. The OP has got to get out of the single stock as soon as possi...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2547

Re: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds

I do my planning using planned spending in today's $ instead of WR. Now that translates into a withdrawal rate but is really a different thought process. Not a different thought process at all. It's what I do. You presumably have a yearly budget. Divide by 0.04. There's your number. If you have tha...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best use of Chase Sapphire Preferred points?
Replies: 27
Views: 2883

Re: Best use of Chase Sapphire Preferred points?

How easy to get first class flights on ANA, I logged on to United to check on the flight from LAX to Tokyo, but I saw none, about a year out. Granted this is from LAX to NRT, more popular route(I assume) than Chicago to Tokyo. Go check out flyertalk about the best timings to get these good awards. ...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2547

Re: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds

The advice I like is to never go higher than 70 percent bonds. I also have read of some saying that 3 percent is the new 4 percent. I am working towards using a 3 percent rule given today's situation vs the past. The baseline AA should be (30/30/40 or 40/20/40 US/Intl/Bond). Even if you are retied,...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2547

Re: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds

At the bleeding edge... Notice that this table is really best applied in the situation where one isn't oversaving so one can cut back in rough times. If you can cut back your spending, this table greatly underestimates the success rate. I agree. Which is why I don't consider 50/50 to be bleeding ed...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2547

Re: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds

The "4% rule" is not a rule, and is not a withdrawal strategy. It is a planning tool, which helps estimate the size of nest egg which might be needed to start retirement ( e.g. 25 times initial retirement living expenses). Table 3 in the Trinity study shows hypothetical initial withdrawal rates, fo...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best use of Chase Sapphire Preferred points?
Replies: 27
Views: 2883

Re: Best use of Chase Sapphire Preferred points?

How easy to get first class flights on ANA, I logged on to United to check on the flight from LAX to Tokyo, but I saw none, about a year out. Granted this is from LAX to NRT, more popular route(I assume) than Chicago to Tokyo. Go check out flyertalk about the best timings to get these good awards. ...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 5/5 ARM or 30yr-fixed?
Replies: 25
Views: 1997

Re: 5/5 ARM or 30yr-fixed?

Be aware that with TCJA, the interest in your proposed mortgage amount of $320k is very likely non-deductible. The SALT cap of $10k + mortgage interest of around $9k to $10k is less than standard deduction. So the taxable equivalent for you in California for the 3.25% rate is more like 5% taxable, ...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Options
Replies: 23
Views: 2535

Re: Job Options

Option 2 is financially better, no question about it other than size of pension. Balance state tax on increased property taxes, however. That is but half the question. Moving away from family has pluses and minuses. Only you can answer the quality of life (including commute!) effect. Having a friday...
by ryman554
Wed May 01, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2547

Re: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds

The "4% rule" is not a rule, and is not a withdrawal strategy. It is a planning tool, which helps estimate the size of nest egg which might be needed to start retirement ( e.g. 25 times initial retirement living expenses). Table 3 in the Trinity study shows hypothetical initial withdrawal rates, fo...
by ryman554
Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2547

Re: 4% Rule Challenges Bonds

The advice I like is to never go higher than 70 percent bonds. I also have read of some saying that 3 percent is the new 4 percent. I am working towards using a 3 percent rule given today's situation vs the past. Or you could just look up the historical data and not guess based on feelings. Make an...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 16067

Re: Dump international?

No. https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/1/11/US-International.png https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/1/11/US-International.png The risk-return curve has probably changed a bit over the past 10 years, but "international always stinks" is patently not true from a risk-adjusted or total return perspec...
by ryman554
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 16067

Re: Dump international?

Total World Index (VTWAX) should be strongly considered the default equities holding unless you are supremely confident you could have predicted the outcome of any significant timeframe in the graph below and are sure you can extrapolate it for the future. 1900-2017 via Credit Suisse https://i.imgu...
by ryman554
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inheritance With Zero Income, Zero Expenses
Replies: 35
Views: 4293

Re: Inheritance With Zero Income, Zero Expenses

If you had read the replies, you would have noticed that my original train of thought was wrong and I have a better understanding of what I can and cannot decide now. ... So the updated plan is to split the inheritance up front and consider the other half a loss. You have not internalized it if you...
by ryman554
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 14043

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

I guess the point is if there's a high likelihood that the next decade is going to be 4% returns or less should you look at alternatives such as real estate etc. or pay off mortgage instead? Also lower returns are fine if you are going to be working for the next 30 years, but what about newly retir...
by ryman554
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy a house or wait in bay area
Replies: 48
Views: 10141

Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

I don't know anything about the current Bay area market but being priced out of the market is a consideration Do you work in the real estate industry? Sounds like something an aggressive agent would say. “Buy now or be priced out forever!” I think it’s irresponsible to make this tired comment in th...
by ryman554
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to contribute in Employee Stock Purchase Plan?
Replies: 6
Views: 767

Re: How much to contribute in Employee Stock Purchase Plan?

What percentage of your income is available to contribute after tax to the ESPP and still be comfortable able to meet your household expenses? I would base it on that. If the number ends up being 5%, 10%, 15% or some number between - so be it. You already have 11% pre-tax going to the 401k. What pe...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 145
Views: 18397

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

From 1980s to now, lot of US companies have become global. Also reverse is true. By owning stock in large US companies, you are already being exposed to global markets. From the 1900s to today, a lot of companies based in California become nationwide, so the folks in NYC are being exposed to the na...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity 401K Small Cap/Mid Cap/500 Index Fund Allocations
Replies: 6
Views: 685

Re: Fidelity 401K Small Cap/Mid Cap/500 Index Fund Allocations

Our company recently changed their 401K company to Fidelity. As an avid indexer, I quickly searched for the index funds and found three: Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund Fidelity Medium Cap Index Fund Fidelity 500 Index Fund I'm confused about how I should allocate between these three. The only thing ...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recharacterization impact on pro rata rule
Replies: 6
Views: 316

Re: Recharacterization impact on pro rata rule

Hello, as married filing jointly, we cannot deduct TIRA contributions due to income so I plan to do nondeductible contributions then convert to ROTH after a week or so. I have rollover IRA from previous employer’s 401k (some in Vanguard, Some moved to Betterment). I plan to roll all of this to my c...
by ryman554
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Home Sale-where to park proceeds?
Replies: 8
Views: 755

Re: Home Sale-where to park proceeds?

They don’t need the money in the short term at all. Their current practice is to sell shares intermittently from their target fund to refill their bank account. Is this the best practice for them? In that case, yes, they should simply reinvest these funds in their existing Target Date fund, and wit...