Search found 799 matches

by ryman554
Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging RSUs
Replies: 6
Views: 375

Re: Hedging RSUs

Why are you hedging assets that do not yet exist? The wife could quit her job and the RSUs would go poof. Please think of RSUs as a bonus in cash based on the performance of the company as a whole. Act genuinely surprised and delighted when RSUs vest, and for goodness sake, never *rely* on RSUs for ...
by ryman554
Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do I put 50k I don't need?
Replies: 21
Views: 1971

Re: Where do I put 50k I don't need?

This question seems to have a wrong premise. The OP has money that has no purpose today, but will sometime in the future. What other money might the OP have that shares similar characteristics? Money for retirement? There is only one correct strategy, and that is invest it alongside/in the same pool...
by ryman554
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After a 2- or 3-fund solution, the rest is withdrawals and world events
Replies: 17
Views: 1695

Re: After a 2- or 3-fund solution, the rest is withdrawals and world events

I will edit a lengthy reply/rant and say this: I strongly believe that any situation that arises that cause the 3.5-4% "rule" to go out the window will also mean that your 2% rule won't work, either. Hmm, I disagree. 4% rule failures may just be running out of money in year 28 (30 years without dep...
by ryman554
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Fidelity VISA 2% cashback contribution to a Roth IRA tax-free?
Replies: 15
Views: 2204

Re: Is a Fidelity VISA 2% cashback contribution to a Roth IRA tax-free?

I am looking to do a the same thing and after reading this tread I am still unsure of the answer. If I dump the cashback from all my cards into a Roth IRA do I need to pay taxes on it at any point? The Roth IRA will only contain money from the cards and no other contributions. As long as you have e...
by ryman554
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After a 2- or 3-fund solution, the rest is withdrawals and world events
Replies: 17
Views: 1695

Re: After a 2- or 3-fund solution, the rest is withdrawals and world events

I will edit a lengthy reply/rant and say this:

I strongly believe that any situation that arises that cause the 3.5-4% "rule" to go out the window will also mean that your 2% rule won't work, either.
by ryman554
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage Payoff Question in HCOL area
Replies: 12
Views: 1402

Re: Mortgage Payoff Question in HCOL area

Good point on % of net worth. If I paid off fully the house would be about half of total net worth. Would you rather have your house at half your net worth or pay a fee (let's call it mortgage interest) for the privilege to leverage your primary residence and "gamble" (let's call it invest) on a hi...
by ryman554
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?
Replies: 13
Views: 918

Re: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?

i think for bonds i'll go for a mix of gov bonds vs company bonds to get around 3% or 4% Don't chase yields with bonds. Understand the purpose of bonds in your portfolio. It's not for "interest", it's for an asset class which is not correlated strongly (for good or for bad) with equities. Corporate...
by ryman554
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?
Replies: 13
Views: 918

Re: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?

i think for bonds i'll go for a mix of gov bonds vs company bonds to get around 3% or 4% Don't chase yields with bonds. Understand the purpose of bonds in your portfolio. It's not for "interest", it's for an asset class which is not correlated strongly (for good or for bad) with equities. Corporate...
by ryman554
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5893

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

The chance is around 3-4%, according to Pfau's model of high valuations and low yields. Except that isn't actually true. Because people aren't stupid. When their portfolio drops to 50% of its starting value within 10 years of retiring, they will annuitise what is left and be totally fine. Plus peop...
by ryman554
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5893

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

I know there isn't enough data to accurately figure it out, but I doubt there is a 95+% success rate when CAPE 10 valuations are around 30 This is not the correct way to use the trinity studies. Success rate is 1 or 0, but you won't know it until you die. Now, what I think you are saying is that to...
by ryman554
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?
Replies: 13
Views: 918

Re: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?

The same to that you would do in US.

80% total world (50/50 us, intl) and 20% home (euro) bonds. You certainly don't want 50% euro stocks. That's way over weighted and could suffer Japan issue.

I have no idea mechanically how to do this, but that's the idea.
by ryman554
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?
Replies: 100
Views: 13579

Re: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?

If the OP is as frugal as indicated, 100k a year is way overkill. I can only assume it includes mortgage payments too. It's also alarming that the OP does not know the remaining balance on the mortgage. The OP does not have 4M. The OP should pay off (not down) the loan and keep on trucking. This tak...
by ryman554
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: May reach critical mass soon, how do I protect what I have?
Replies: 26
Views: 3168

Re: May reach critical mass soon, how do I protect what I have?

Thanks to all for their responses. This is a very important decision for me. If I hit my "critical mass" figure I will have 1.5 million in my account and for someone who grew up poor like me it is very important that I protect this money. I have 4.5 years to go before the 1st RMD so it is time to s...
by ryman554
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct and alternatives
Replies: 43
Views: 3495

Re: TaxAct and alternatives

I got this e-mail offer on Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend last year and it worked out pretty well; we'll see if anything shows up in my mailbox this coming Sunday. https://i.imgur.com/4g3Tc8i.jpg Got the same. took it and worked out great. Looking for this year too. Considering it say "Come back to...
by ryman554
Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Smoothing out a Property Tax bill
Replies: 13
Views: 812

Re: Smoothing out a Property Tax bill

I have a $1000 withdrawal to my saving account monthly for just this purpose (and other semi-yearly bills).

Works for me....
by ryman554
Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5050

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

Thank you for replies . Quentin and Ryman and others , Basically , the way I see it , the company should be able to guarantee 5% return for the participants ( cash balance plan is a type of pension plan with guaranteed benefit). My perspective is at present time ,the company can afford to guarantee...
by ryman554
Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sale of Home Proceeds - Net Loss & No plans to purchase for 2 years
Replies: 6
Views: 663

Re: Sale of Home Proceeds - Net Loss & No plans to purchase for 2 years

Thank you. And yes. But in all honesty, the horizon is likely 3-5 years. So thank you for asking me to clarify my thinking. Even at 3-5 years, CDs are likely the best choice. IF you are sure you are going to purchase another house. You really don't want to be timing buying a house with a potential ...
by ryman554
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invested more than $5500 in IRA - Help
Replies: 14
Views: 1207

Re: Invested more than $5500 in IRA - Help

Hi Ryman, You are right I am contributing via a workplace plan into a roth 401(k). I had read a few threads here where it was mentioned that its best to invest in the traditional 401(k) only upto the amount that your company matches (6%) and invest the rest in a post -tax Roth account. I believe gi...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invested more than $5500 in IRA - Help
Replies: 14
Views: 1207

Re: Invested more than $5500 in IRA - Help

I called Fidelity and they clarified that I had a ROTH account (and not an IRA account like I thought). So the contributions are under the $18,000 limit per year. Feel stupid not knowing this but wanted to clarify. Thanks ! ROTH 401(k) or ROTH IRA? The former combines with your traditional 401(k) a...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Understanding How to Handle Bonus
Replies: 51
Views: 4119

Re: Help with Understanding How to Handle Bonus

Thanks for the feedback. I guess my thought is that the bonus is so much more than I expected that I could use a part of it to help lower my tax bill while also still paying down a big chunk of the loans. The bonus should bump us into the 28% bracket, so I at least want to consider if I can get us ...
by ryman554
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5050

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

And I as the owner of the company take the risk No, you as the owner of the company most certainly do not take the risk unless you have a personal liability if the company goes under. The company takes the risk. When the liabilities for this little plan become too large because you either underfund...
by ryman554
Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5050

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

Kevin, Thanks for your reply . One strategy is to go with broad index funds . If I want to go with bond funds only or treasuries or cds (no stock funds ) , does anybody have Any input what combination of these conservative investments might come close to 3-4% return ( I know 5% would be difficult )...
by ryman554
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $23k credit card emergency
Replies: 76
Views: 8351

Re: $23k credit card emergency

I don't drive a lot during the week but on the weekends (like 2x a month) I'll visit my family and friends about 40 miles each way. I usually drive around a lot since I take my mom on errands (she doesn't drive). Especially with LA traffic, it can take a toll on your gas. I guess $150 is a bit on t...
by ryman554
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5050

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

Like dbr , I am not qualified to make any recommendations, so let me say this: There are no existing set of funds that guarantee 5% each and every year. Quit looking for them. I don't pretend to understand what the difficulty is in earning *more* than 5%, I don't pretend to understand what your with...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling ISOs and AMT
Replies: 23
Views: 1321

Re: Selling ISOs and AMT

Water under the bridge now, but, in AMT-land, ISO = NQO (to a very good approximation). It is therefore never a good idea to exercise ISO in AMT unless you can sell immediately due to single stock risk and the non-insignificant likelihood of the stock crashing below exercise price. It's great to ex...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Declaring Tutoring Income
Replies: 16
Views: 2478

Re: Declaring Tutoring Income

mattyfu1 wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:15 pm
I ask for cash...
Promoting tax evasion (and that's what it is) is not allowed on this board.
by ryman554
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling ISOs and AMT
Replies: 23
Views: 1321

Re: Selling ISOs and AMT

Thank you both for the discussion. I'm normally paying a small amount of AMT (looking at past returns), but I'm taking your thoughts into consideration. In terms of last years filing, which includes the ISO exercise, it pushed me significantly into AMT territory. I'm going to do a little research t...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life - Time to cancel?
Replies: 33
Views: 2807

Re: Term Life - Time to cancel?

How do you come to the $130,000 figure? The way I figured it, if $1M in coverage when I had nothing, was enough then all other things being equal one should not need the coverage when they have accumulated $1M. Of course it is in the market so it won’t always be worth $1M. And, I had no kids when I...
by ryman554
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling ISOs and AMT
Replies: 23
Views: 1321

Re: Selling ISOs and AMT

Thank you missingdonut. Is this why I'm reading that an qualifying ISO sale results in a negative adjustment on my AMT? Yes, that's correct. Also, you might also be able to claw back some of the AMT you paid when you sell the shares. I seem to recall that, as soon as you are out of the AMT, you can...
by ryman554
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who would pay the inherited IRA penalty?
Replies: 13
Views: 1078

Re: Who would pay the inherited IRA penalty?

Therefore, if you are a beneficiary and create your OWN separate inherited IRA by the deadline (end of year following year of death) and have taken your share of the year of death RMD by that time (filed 5329 if late), you can totally forget about what the other beneficiaries do or don't do. The IR...
by ryman554
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life - Time to cancel?
Replies: 33
Views: 2807

Re: Term Life - Time to cancel?

The policy is an annual renewable term policy at TIAA. With a dividend, there is no way is it term, although TIAA does not sell whole life, so I am perplexed at what you actually have. As a 50 year old, I cannot believe that an annual-renewable term is (significantly) MORE than the cost of a 50 yea...
by ryman554
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can take $15k out of my trad IRA with no taxes - should I?
Replies: 37
Views: 3327

Re: I can take $15k out of my trad IRA with no taxes - should I?

Yes. A conversion to a Roth IRA is like making a withdrawal from traditional and then a Roth contribution. It is only superficially like what you describe. Do note that the conversion locks up the funds for 5 years (at least it does pre-59.5, haven't checked post-59.5), so if you have to withdraw t...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today
Replies: 24
Views: 1874

Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Come on guys, lets give the OP a break. There is a reason that investment banks are spending so much on quants and research into chaos theory to predict future results. There has to be some there there in mathematical investing. <tinfoil hat> But the good stuff is not going to be revealed by a guy w...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 39
Views: 2859

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

To reap the rewards of diversification, one needs to be willing to feel like a fool for extended periods — and more importantly, have the patience and faith that the returns of various asset classes and factors will eventually mean-revert in time. I would go one step further -- you will feel like (...
by ryman554
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...
Replies: 73
Views: 9058

Re: Buffet "Key Indicator" near dangerous all-time high...

So 10% in bond won't help you in down market. You still draw RMD form 90% portion if market is down. When one is a flexible withdrawal rate of 3-4% having 10% in cash allows one to withdrawal solely from that for 2.5 year to 3.3 years. That should very much "help". Previous SWR discussion have show...
by ryman554
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA and Medical Expense Deduction in CA
Replies: 4
Views: 561

Re: HSA and Medical Expense Deduction in CA

You can't "double dip." If you're going to deduct medical expenses on Schedule A, you can't use those "same expenses" to be reimbursed from your HSA. But, on the flip-side, since there is no such thing as an HSA in CA, as far as the taxation is concerned, the OP *can* deduct against CA taxes regard...
by ryman554
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 401k is almost all cash now. 1/2 Mil
Replies: 89
Views: 8982

Re: My 401k is almost all cash now. 1/2 Mil

My strategy was, once market drops 20% I will start buying again. It worked in 2008. I moved 100% in sp500. Kept on selling till 2016 Feb. Now I am just waiting. I may start DCA into SPY a little bit and hope for a crash in next few years. This is why "mechanical investing" doesn't work. Or plans b...
by ryman554
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going to SF, Yosemite and Sacramento and NOW PORTLAND
Replies: 49
Views: 2407

Re: Going to SF, Yosemite and Sacramento

You're underestimating how long it takes to get from here to there. November may be rainy, it may be glorious. Generally, weather is fine. Getting to/from Santa Cruz is a trek. There is no good way to get there. Take it easy and ignore the idiot tailgaters over the 17. You will use up one day gettin...
by ryman554
Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Inheritance Late in Cycle
Replies: 27
Views: 3095

Re: Investing Inheritance Late in Cycle

Pay off the cars. I definitely prefer the liquidity and at 0% financing there is no incentive to pay off earlier. Even my bank pays me 1.3% on savings so the spread is free money. OK, pay off the mortgage instead. Especially if concerned about valuation. The OP prefers liquidity and you suggest to ...
by ryman554
Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free $20 if you have Google Fi
Replies: 7
Views: 1189

Re: Free $20 if you have Google Fi

YHPM.
by ryman554
Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big basket of stocks really more "diversified" than a smaller basket?
Replies: 22
Views: 1661

Re: Is a big basket of stocks really more "diversified" than a smaller basket?

by alex_686 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:14 am To extend this a bit it takes about 20 stocks to capture 80% of the return of the S&P 500. 40 stocks gets you 90%. The benefit of diversification falls as you add more stocks. It does not fall to zero. That is the rationale behind the belief that TSM is the op...
by ryman554
Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2896

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Ah. Yeah, that won't work. =) But in this case, *cash* is getting your 1.5% real and the argument holds. Given the inflation that the UK is experiencing (from those I know over there), I can't believe that the UK TIPS are what we think they are. I am very confused by what you write. Can you clarify...
by ryman554
Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3897

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

harvestbook wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Bulls experience long years of irrational exuberance and bears get fleeting moments of grim satisfaction.
Talk to the Japanese circa last 20 years....
by ryman554
Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2896

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Somewhere recently I heard that the 4% rule did not work in 6 of 8 developed countries looked at. Honestly I didn't get all the info and should have. But this brings to mind the obvious question: Is the 4% rule just a fluke of the USA in the 20th century? (I sincerely apologize for starting YET ANO...
by ryman554
Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoiding the Spiral
Replies: 21
Views: 3203

Re: Avoiding the Spiral

The 4% (3.6ish%, actually) is a empirical observation that worked in the worst cases in modern history in the USA for 70/30 (ish) portfolios. This includes things like the great depression and set by the low returns of the 1960's . IF past data is guide toward the future, you don't need to worry ( m...
by ryman554
Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HRA vs HSA - Simulation
Replies: 3
Views: 530

Re: HRA vs HSA - Simulation

The 'HDHP Analysis' tab in the Personal_finance_toolbox might be useful. Thanks but the spreadsheet didn't go thro' the scenarios I had in mind. Looks like I might have to build my own spreadsheet. There is never any substitute for running the numbers yourself. You gain in understanding and wisdom.
by ryman554
Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2896

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Somewhere recently I heard that the 4% rule did not work in 6 of 8 developed countries looked at. Honestly I didn't get all the info and should have. But this brings to mind the obvious question: Is the 4% rule just a fluke of the USA in the 20th century? (I sincerely apologize for starting YET ANO...
by ryman554
Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new 401(k) limits announced
Replies: 88
Views: 13097

Re: new 401(k) limits announced

^^^ Switching jobs mid-year may also result in over-withholding of your Social Security tax (FICA). See: Social Security and Medicare Withholding Rates , from the IRS, "Wage base limit". The tax software should catch that, though. Actually that's one of the easier refunds to get. It goes as a tax c...
by ryman554
Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new 401(k) limits announced
Replies: 88
Views: 13097

Re: new 401(k) limits announced

curious....lets say one automatically contributes $1800 a month from their paycheck which goes directly to their 401/403 custodian from the Payroll Dept at work. At your place of work does this 'automatically stop' at the 18k employee contribution point? (so one can't overcontribute) At my place of...
by ryman554
Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car fund in index fun or savings?
Replies: 19
Views: 1550

Re: Car fund in index fun or savings?

Wow, you really went off the deep end! :| OP is buying a car. But, I'm glad to see most people are on the same page as me :beer I have been known to partake in deep waters from time to time.... It isn't that the OP wants to get a car. It's that it sounds like there is something special about gettin...