Search found 982 matches

by packer16
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 200
Views: 10332

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

What evidence do you have? Most if not all small cap value funds are diversified & thus you have no test of the few good bargains hypothesis. I have experienced and seen others who have experienced just the opposite. IMO the reason SCV funds underperform is the diluting away of the value factor & fe...
by packer16
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 200
Views: 10332

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I agree with Park here. You do see value at the individual security level (a cheap stock) more than you see in diversified groups of stocks. By definition this is the case. They key here is the idiosyncratic risk control. This risk control can be implemented by relative sizing based upon operational...
by packer16
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 57
Views: 12597

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

My question is more about the recession banter than the need to hire economists & more about focus versus cost. I agree they do need a few economist for some tasks but when they start putting out economic forecasts that everyone knows are wrong & can lead to poor behavior maybe they have too many or...
by packer16
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 57
Views: 12597

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

Why does Vanguard hire economists & get into the banter about the probability of a recession will be in the next few years? IMO this distracts away from the long-term philosophy of buy & hold with low cost. Does this add value to the average Vanguard investor or just add noise to an already over noi...
by packer16
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: True Risk-Adjuted Returns
Replies: 17
Views: 1103

Re: True Risk-Adjuted Returns

The issue with risk like expected returns is that it cannot be measured it only can be estimated. Another issue with risk is that it contains things that cannot be measured by past movements in prices. Things like expropriation risk, currency risk & capital flow risk. You can use volatility as a sta...
by packer16
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 27
Views: 2897

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Stlutz, Thanks for that explanation. Like I said, limits of my knowledge. But seems to me dividend yield is pretty consistently solid roughly 2% and earnings growth usually in the range of 2-3%. Dividend yield + earnings growth + valuation changes= return Seems to me changes in the P/E ratio would ...
by packer16
Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 27
Views: 2897

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Interesting point Park. It appears the plus or minus 5 years around retirement can be a danger window for sequence of returns risk. For the probabilistic folks out there, does it make sense to minimize the risk (i.e. smooth our returns by taking risk off the table) & thus return outside of the seque...
by packer16
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 27
Views: 2897

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I think how much valuation matters is dependent upon your investment horizon and your distribution of your contributions. The longer your investment horizon the less valuations matter as long as you are investing in market where as a shareholder you can reap the rewards of your investment like the U...
by packer16
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 15462

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

Long term leverage is not straightforward. One can treat leverage as similar to lump sum investing. For example, one starts off with a leverage ratio of 1.3. One then adds no further leverage, and with time, the leverage ratio will decrease. The only exception is subsequent lump sums, for which the...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 1916

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

The early 1800s were the Napoleonic Wars, similar to the world wars in the 19th century. Waterloo was 1815. The UK volatility comes almost 2 decades later in the 1830s. The Napoleonic War years of 1802-1815 actually appear to have no real volatility. The was a UK banking crisis in the mid to late 1...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 1916

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

The early 1800s were the Napoleonic Wars, similar to the world wars in the 19th century.

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by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 1916

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

This makes sense given the destruction of the US & worldwide banking system (which I only knew after reading accounts of the Great Depression). How could you be confident in equities when even money in many banks was no longer there. A large portion of folks life savings were gone in what was the sa...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 671

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

I calculated these myself from the filings (10-Ks) of the top 10 holdings of the Vanguard REIT using the S,G&A and the non-depreciation CoS for these REITs as a percentage of the REITs assets. An interesting observation is 7 of the top 10 REITs also have operating businesses (hosting, tower leasing ...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 671

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

Also REIT funds have 2 levels of fees versus a physical house. There is a fund fee for managing the fund of REITs and a fee for managing the underlying real estate by each REIT. This can add up. It is almost 4.5% for the low cost Vanguard REIT fund. Packer VGSLX has an expense ratio of 12 basis poi...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 671

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

Also REIT funds have 2 levels of fees versus a physical house. There is a fund fee for managing the fund of REITs and a fee for managing the underlying real estate by each REIT. This can add up. It is almost 4.5% for the low cost Vanguard REIT fund.

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by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post
Replies: 15
Views: 1377

Re: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post

VIX is the volatility index a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index.
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post
Replies: 15
Views: 1377

Re: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post

If the indicies were getting more volatile, would not the VIX increase? It appears to have declined as indexing has increased in popularity.

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by packer16
Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3113

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Inflation is caused by shortages & deflation by surpluses. War, famine & epidemic creates shortages of food, goods & people thus inflation. Technological advancement is very deflationary & since the entire world has now for the most part embraced a market based system these advances can be distribut...
by packer16
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5653

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

You also need to consider what happened in the years that created the low returns in the UK. The expropriation of private firms for public use after WWII surely had a large impact as well as the impact of WWII versus the US where some expropriation occurred during WWI but was reversed in the 1920s. ...
by packer16
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12114

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I know this is a different approach but I like the Kites upward ratchet approach. Where 4% is taken out every year then it is ratcheted upwards if the portfolio is greater than 50% of the inflation adjusted initial balance. The increases happen every 3 years as long as the portfolio is great than 50...
by packer16
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12114

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Thanks for your references to Kitces site. It is quite the resource.

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by packer16
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12114

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I think the biggest value add of time segmentation & your ESP/DSP analysis is it determines your need to take risk (as it quantifies your needs) in a portfolio to meet your needs. You need to perform this analysis to determine your needed asset allocation. Once you do that it may be easier to have a...
by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 359
Views: 14913

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

How about Simply Bogleheads.
by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 359
Views: 14913

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Rick,

What is going to be the scope of your interviews/podcasts? Just indexing, investing, financial planning, expense management? The forum has a pretty wide breadth of topics under Bogleheads. Thanks.

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by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 359
Views: 14913

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The 21st Century Intelligent Investor - Podcasts by Bogleheads

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by packer16
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

I agree with the concept but the IMO the cost of using the suggested implementation was too high for my opinion of the expected performance. We had a thread about a year ago about alternatives with a number of suggested alternative funds held by some folks here (QSPIX, LENDX & SRRIX) and some I have...
by packer16
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18867

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

What all the doom & gloomers forget is that the valuation adjustment they make is based upon reversion to some mean P/E over time. The mean P/E is based upon an average interest rate over the time of measurement. Therefore, for the valuation adjustment to be valid interest rates will have to mean re...
by packer16
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18867

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The one big difference between historical & forward looking numbers this year is tax reform. The historical numbers do not capture this known positive for earnings in 2018.

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by packer16
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5640

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

How about access to bond-like asset classes that can be used to add value to the fixed income portion of the portfolios. Access to some these alternatives via Stoneridge is one way (an expensive one IMO). Other alternatives include: NNN leased real estate (portfolio of bonds associated with tenants ...
by packer16
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3165

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

The 2 and 20 is more of a aspirational fee structure. IIRC the average is closer to 1.2 and 15. And that 20 or 15 or whatever is the amount over the hurdle rate. i.e., if the benchmark is the S&P 500, the managers get the 20% that the fund over-preforms. It it doesn't they get zip. In Warren Buffet...
by packer16
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 57
Views: 12597

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

Given the relatively high price of equities these days and the low yields of bonds what are your thoughts on other income generating assets like NNN real estate, BDCs with good underwriting, infrastructure providers (toll roads, bridges, electricity transmission, railroads) or hard asset leasers (li...
by packer16
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 4747

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

The main problem IMO with using P/E or CAPE is your result depends upon interest rates. If you are using a reversion to the mean with P/E or CAPE the implicit assumption is that the interest rate going forward are going to revert to the period over which your P/E or CAPE is calculated. However, inte...
by packer16
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2447

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

This is why IMO it is important to look at the ERP (incremental return above bonds to take on equity risk). Damodaran has found that the ERP can be accurately estimated with a some forwarding looking data he complies on his web site. He has a real interesting chart on his site which shows the expect...
by packer16
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors
Replies: 27
Views: 2156

Re: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors

We all keep talking about the need to take a long term view with regard to factors. But I think it’s important for many to realize that if their time frame is short, say immediately preceding retirement or early retirement where sequence of returns is big issue, then diversifying across factors may...
by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9260

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

As to stock pickers using factors, it is not true. The processes of selecting stocks is fundamentally different. Factors do not take into account fundamentals they just use what has driven stock prices in the past for selection versus understanding businesses (which is what most stock pickers do) a...
by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks Letter - Investing without people
Replies: 1
Views: 541

Howard Marks Letter - Investing without people

Below is a link to an interesting letter by Marks about passive/quant investing:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... ff74a256e4

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by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9260

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

How do you know value is not expensive? Typically it is by comparing the P/BV or P/Earnings metric of groups of stocks (value vs. growth for instance). The only problem with this it assumes the quality (including expected growth) of each group remains constant over time. I am not sure this is true &...
by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9260

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

One key point here & why the controversies exists is the differences between past and expected returns. Everyone can agree that factors explain 90%+ of past returns but not necessarily expected or future returns. The same is true for correlation. Factors have not been correlated with stocks in the p...
by packer16
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9260

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

To give those how think they may be missing some returns I ran a back of the envelope comparison of an equivalent 75% equity/25% bond Vanguard Life Strategy (75% LS growth/25% LS moderate growth), a 60%/15%/25% Taylor 3-Fund Portfolio (Vanguard TSM, Vangaurd TIS & Vanguard Total Bond) & RobertT's Fa...
by packer16
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2700

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

The issue with the risk based argument is that is based upon empirical observation of the firms that come out of the value screen. It is not based upon screening for the operational and financially risky firms. It would be interesting to see if the performance of SCV is more from the financially & o...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2700

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

IMO the loser are supposedly the non-factor investors. I think factor investing, like any other active strategy (based upon other than market derived weights or values), is subject to the same factors that eroded active investing, more people doing it.

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by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4230

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

What about all the things that are included in factors the influence value, like future growth, moatiness of the business, the governance of the business and the governance of the country and security specific factors, like voting/non-voting stocks, holding company discounts and the implied cost of ...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4230

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

What active investors are doing is valuing companies & securities. They are understanding businesses and what drives value. I did this a business for the past 20 years primarily for private business. It much more involved that running factor screens and developing portfolios with the output of these...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4230

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

IMO your narrative includes a myth that factor investing is the same as the investing value investors have been following for years. This is not true. Value investing is not factor investing. Value investing is based upon having a deep understanding of businesses & valuation of those businesses. Fac...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4230

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

IMO factors have only been put to the test since the mid 2000s with real money when they were first invested in any real scale. To think that with more money invested this way that they will not go the way of active investing due to the same factors that reduced the value of active investing is naiv...
by packer16
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy LEAPS vs stocks
Replies: 7
Views: 844

Re: Buy LEAPS vs stocks

LEAPs appear to be easier than they are. You need to get 2 thing right the mispricing & the timing when the market will correct this. If you are good you may be able to get the mispricing right more than 50% or 55% of the time but in my experience the timing aspect of LEAPs lowers the odds of succes...
by packer16
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1995

Re: Re-insurance risk

Dave,

Do you know if there has been any issues with repurchases not being filled since SRRIX started? I know they limit redemptions to 5% of total shares per quarter but if they have patient capital then this should not be a material issue. Thanks.

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by packer16
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3423

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Just to correct a few misconceptions First, there have been claims that Stone Ridge is a bunch of people who have only derivatives experience not "real" experience working with real reinsurers. Amazing to me that there are people on this site who often make claims as facts when they have no clue wh...
by packer16
Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1995

Re: Re-insurance risk

Thanks nedsaid. In response, to Larry's last comment, this critic does understand that to get re-insurance and credit exposure you have to buy it as a part of a larger business. But the real question is it worth the cost to get pure exposure to these risks. The alternative for re-insurance is to get...