Search found 963 matches

by packer16
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 108
Views: 6017

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I know this is a different approach but I like the Kites upward ratchet approach. Where 4% is taken out every year then it is ratcheted upwards if the portfolio is greater than 50% of the inflation adjusted initial balance. The increases happen every 3 years as long as the portfolio is great than 50...
by packer16
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 108
Views: 6017

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Thanks for your references to Kitces site. It is quite the resource.

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by packer16
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 108
Views: 6017

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I think the biggest value add of time segmentation & your ESP/DSP analysis is it determines your need to take risk (as it quantifies your needs) in a portfolio to meet your needs. You need to perform this analysis to determine your needed asset allocation. Once you do that it may be easier to have a...
by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10304

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

How about Simply Bogleheads.
by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10304

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Rick,

What is going to be the scope of your interviews/podcasts? Just indexing, investing, financial planning, expense management? The forum has a pretty wide breadth of topics under Bogleheads. Thanks.

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by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10304

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The 21st Century Intelligent Investor - Podcasts by Bogleheads

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by packer16
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3344

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

I agree with the concept but the IMO the cost of using the suggested implementation was too high for my opinion of the expected performance. We had a thread about a year ago about alternatives with a number of suggested alternative funds held by some folks here (QSPIX, LENDX & SRRIX) and some I have...
by packer16
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18046

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

What all the doom & gloomers forget is that the valuation adjustment they make is based upon reversion to some mean P/E over time. The mean P/E is based upon an average interest rate over the time of measurement. Therefore, for the valuation adjustment to be valid interest rates will have to mean re...
by packer16
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18046

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The one big difference between historical & forward looking numbers this year is tax reform. The historical numbers do not capture this known positive for earnings in 2018.

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by packer16
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5467

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

How about access to bond-like asset classes that can be used to add value to the fixed income portion of the portfolios. Access to some these alternatives via Stoneridge is one way (an expensive one IMO). Other alternatives include: NNN leased real estate (portfolio of bonds associated with tenants ...
by packer16
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3078

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

The 2 and 20 is more of a aspirational fee structure. IIRC the average is closer to 1.2 and 15. And that 20 or 15 or whatever is the amount over the hurdle rate. i.e., if the benchmark is the S&P 500, the managers get the 20% that the fund over-preforms. It it doesn't they get zip. In Warren Buffet...
by packer16
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 49
Views: 10726

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

Given the relatively high price of equities these days and the low yields of bonds what are your thoughts on other income generating assets like NNN real estate, BDCs with good underwriting, infrastructure providers (toll roads, bridges, electricity transmission, railroads) or hard asset leasers (li...
by packer16
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 4702

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

The main problem IMO with using P/E or CAPE is your result depends upon interest rates. If you are using a reversion to the mean with P/E or CAPE the implicit assumption is that the interest rate going forward are going to revert to the period over which your P/E or CAPE is calculated. However, inte...
by packer16
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2361

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

This is why IMO it is important to look at the ERP (incremental return above bonds to take on equity risk). Damodaran has found that the ERP can be accurately estimated with a some forwarding looking data he complies on his web site. He has a real interesting chart on his site which shows the expect...
by packer16
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors
Replies: 27
Views: 2112

Re: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors

We all keep talking about the need to take a long term view with regard to factors. But I think it’s important for many to realize that if their time frame is short, say immediately preceding retirement or early retirement where sequence of returns is big issue, then diversifying across factors may...
by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9074

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

As to stock pickers using factors, it is not true. The processes of selecting stocks is fundamentally different. Factors do not take into account fundamentals they just use what has driven stock prices in the past for selection versus understanding businesses (which is what most stock pickers do) a...
by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks Letter - Investing without people
Replies: 1
Views: 527

Howard Marks Letter - Investing without people

Below is a link to an interesting letter by Marks about passive/quant investing:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... ff74a256e4

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by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9074

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

How do you know value is not expensive? Typically it is by comparing the P/BV or P/Earnings metric of groups of stocks (value vs. growth for instance). The only problem with this it assumes the quality (including expected growth) of each group remains constant over time. I am not sure this is true &...
by packer16
Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9074

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

One key point here & why the controversies exists is the differences between past and expected returns. Everyone can agree that factors explain 90%+ of past returns but not necessarily expected or future returns. The same is true for correlation. Factors have not been correlated with stocks in the p...
by packer16
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9074

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

To give those how think they may be missing some returns I ran a back of the envelope comparison of an equivalent 75% equity/25% bond Vanguard Life Strategy (75% LS growth/25% LS moderate growth), a 60%/15%/25% Taylor 3-Fund Portfolio (Vanguard TSM, Vangaurd TIS & Vanguard Total Bond) & RobertT's Fa...
by packer16
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2633

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

The issue with the risk based argument is that is based upon empirical observation of the firms that come out of the value screen. It is not based upon screening for the operational and financially risky firms. It would be interesting to see if the performance of SCV is more from the financially & o...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2633

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

IMO the loser are supposedly the non-factor investors. I think factor investing, like any other active strategy (based upon other than market derived weights or values), is subject to the same factors that eroded active investing, more people doing it.

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by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3611

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

What about all the things that are included in factors the influence value, like future growth, moatiness of the business, the governance of the business and the governance of the country and security specific factors, like voting/non-voting stocks, holding company discounts and the implied cost of ...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3611

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

What active investors are doing is valuing companies & securities. They are understanding businesses and what drives value. I did this a business for the past 20 years primarily for private business. It much more involved that running factor screens and developing portfolios with the output of these...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3611

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

IMO your narrative includes a myth that factor investing is the same as the investing value investors have been following for years. This is not true. Value investing is not factor investing. Value investing is based upon having a deep understanding of businesses & valuation of those businesses. Fac...
by packer16
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3611

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

IMO factors have only been put to the test since the mid 2000s with real money when they were first invested in any real scale. To think that with more money invested this way that they will not go the way of active investing due to the same factors that reduced the value of active investing is naiv...
by packer16
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy LEAPS vs stocks
Replies: 7
Views: 827

Re: Buy LEAPS vs stocks

LEAPs appear to be easier than they are. You need to get 2 thing right the mispricing & the timing when the market will correct this. If you are good you may be able to get the mispricing right more than 50% or 55% of the time but in my experience the timing aspect of LEAPs lowers the odds of succes...
by packer16
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re: Re-insurance risk

Dave,

Do you know if there has been any issues with repurchases not being filled since SRRIX started? I know they limit redemptions to 5% of total shares per quarter but if they have patient capital then this should not be a material issue. Thanks.

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by packer16
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3357

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Just to correct a few misconceptions First, there have been claims that Stone Ridge is a bunch of people who have only derivatives experience not "real" experience working with real reinsurers. Amazing to me that there are people on this site who often make claims as facts when they have no clue wh...
by packer16
Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re: Re-insurance risk

Thanks nedsaid. In response, to Larry's last comment, this critic does understand that to get re-insurance and credit exposure you have to buy it as a part of a larger business. But the real question is it worth the cost to get pure exposure to these risks. The alternative for re-insurance is to get...
by packer16
Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re: Re-insurance risk

For your information, Larry did respond to some of the questions. Here is his response: "You also I believe are incorrect in your understanding of SRRIX. Since they basically only buy quota shares, meaning entire slices of the books of the reinsurers, no cherry picking, they are getting the same und...
by packer16
Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3357

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

The problem with the products recommended is they do not time when to get & out when premiums are expensive or cheap they are in re-insurance all the time. The guys running the portfolios are not underwriters & do not have underwriting backgrounds, only insurance derivative backgrounds. They worked ...
by packer16
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the specific "risks not reflected in volatility" of factor investing?
Replies: 10
Views: 729

Re: What are the specific "risks not reflected in volatility" of factor investing?

What is interesting about SCV since 2000, is in big stock market down years, 2000 to 2002 & 2008, SCV outperformed the S&P 500. So while the logic of SCV being more risky in a downturn may be correct, the data says something else. One risk is liquidity. Long-term investors are uniquely positioned to...
by packer16
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 2951

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets

Larry, Thanks for the background here. Since the portfolio was started at an earlier time with real funds not back tested data then I stand corrected. If we use 1998 as starting point (about the low point since 1995 in relative SCV/S&P 500 relative performance) the outperformance of SCV is about 4.6...
by packer16
Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 2951

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets

Some speak of a free lunch but I have yet to see it play out in real better returns in the future for a given set of pre-defined allocations. Larry when he laid out his LP with a SCV portfolio in 2011, set up a testable hypothesis with various levels of bond & SCV versus bonds & S&P 500 & it failed ...
by packer16
Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 2951

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets

IMO for most BHs & thinking investors this is click bait. The studies conclusion & the articles for that matter is active is less than passive on average. What additional insight does this bring that most BHs do not already know. The question you need to ask about active is where would you expect to...
by packer16
Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2570

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

I think one thing folks need to keep in mind is what mean are folks talking about & what factors effect that mean. If you are talking about world stock market returns, then you are talking about an combination of individual country returns. Each countries returns are going to vary depending upon how...
by packer16
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re: Re-insurance risk

IMO the insurance risk managers like Buffet, Markel & Watsa know more about re-insurance risk than some relatively inexperienced folks running SRRIX. One clue is the masters focus in area they have an edge versus trying to diworsify into areas to reduce volatility. IMO the market is becoming more e...
by packer16
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 6458

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

IMO the quality of Larry's decision is dependent upon the quality of his model. He is treating financial data & processes like scientific data which is an interesting approach but may be wrong if financial markets do not act like natural processes. If he has the correct model of markets then he is c...
by packer16
Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re: Re-insurance risk

IMO the insurance risk managers like Buffet, Markel & Watsa know more about re-insurance risk than some relatively inexperienced folks running SRRIX. One clue is the masters focus in area they have an edge versus trying to diworsify into areas to reduce volatility. IMO the market is becoming more ef...
by packer16
Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re: Re-insurance risk

The difference between the miners & the commodity is the miners have costs (so there is operational leverage) & financial leverage. So buying miners is buying leveraged exposure to a commodity with all the lenders ahead of you taking most of the return most of the time, similar to shipping companies...
by packer16
Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factor Investing Alive & Well
Replies: 11
Views: 1791

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factor Investing Alive & Well

Interesting article but I think he missed an option in the overgrazing narrative. We did see a one-time large gain in value vs. growth stocks from 1999 to 2006 and a flat or oscillating gain and loss since then. You can see this in the differences in returns between DFSVX/VSIIX and VFINX from 1999 t...
by packer16
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 6458

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

Dave, Thanks for your narrative. I am similarly interested in the market but try to use a micro edge (focus on specifically mispriced securities) versus trying to invest where I think I have macro/asset class edge. I read the article & found it defensive & the arguments about CCF weak. If CCF is too...
by packer16
Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures
Replies: 5
Views: 677

Re: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures

I am not sure that the stock market risk would overwhelm the reinsurance, credit card or farm risk (which comes from the same underlying assets) over a longer period of time. I never understood the stock market risk related to these assets. I do not think just because these assets (re-insurance, cre...
by packer16
Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures
Replies: 5
Views: 677

Cheap & More Liquid Ways to Get Alt Exposures

I agree with the alternatives in concept but the high cost and lack of liquidity in the current fund offerings discussed here create some real issues in attempting to getting the market returns from these funds. First, the cost is high which on a portfolio % basis may be small on an absolute $ basis...
by packer16
Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1970

Re-insurance risk

I like the idea of re-insurance risk as diversifier. Therefore, I think it may make sense to holds a group of good re-insurers as diversification and return enhancing investment. I have heard some talk about SRRIX but IMO this is an expensive option that has had poor historical performance versus sk...
by packer16
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060
Replies: 22
Views: 3352

Re: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060

One way to examine the chart is in regards to capital destroying events (war, famine & epidemics) or capital retarding events (collective/auotcratic economic systems). In the late 19th century to the mid 20th century, all three of the destroyers & retarders were present. However, as the first three ...
by packer16
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Article On Conversion Of Human Capital To Investment Capital And Sequence Of Return Risk
Replies: 4
Views: 878

Re: Excellent Article On Conversion Of Human Capital To Investment Capital And Sequence Of Return Risk

Great article. The CFA paper linked to in the article (https://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2470/rf.v2007.n1.458) has some interesting ideas about quantifying human capital & putting it into an asset allocation and deals with issues such as discount rate to discount human capital dependent upon how ri...
by packer16
Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Paradigm for Long-term Inflation Risk?
Replies: 29
Views: 1945

Re: Your Paradigm for Long-term Inflation Risk?

The best paradigm I have seen is based upon shortages. What causes prolonged inflation is labor shortages. These are typically caused by war, famine or epidemic or in the 20th century not participating in the world economy in a productive way (communist command economies). There is great book called...