Search found 1009 matches

by packer16
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9443

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Larry, I agree with you on re-insurance & equity premiums being similar but IMO the biggest difference is fees. You can gain access to the equity market at 10bp while access to re-insurance markets is closer to 200bp. I agree that there is some illiquidity premium on quota share but how much is it w...
by packer16
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9443

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

You are correct about a spike & I do not how these will perform in a credit tightening event, we don't have the data. The one thing about a spike is the loans are amoritizing so you have a pretty good idea of when defaults are happening & the visibility into loss rates is pretty robust (i.e. the dat...
by packer16
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9443

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Larry has done a good job at communicating how the market price has reduced future returns for stock & bonds but has not provided similar data for some of the alternatives. IMO you need to look at these alternatives similarly. The data in some cases are hard to come by however for alternative lendin...
by packer16
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

How is this any different than active investing? You need manager skill & expertise to weight and time the factor exposure to generate these returns, no? How has this worked out with QSPIX? Not too good in generating equity like returns IMO because of the large amount of expertise & timing required...
by packer16
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

Although the article is interesting it is nothing but "click-bait" for more sophisticated investors IMO. The first big issue is believing expected return expectation can be estimated based upon valuation factors independent of interest rates. This is similar the GMO type analyses that have been done...
by packer16
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 2162

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

The biggest difference between stocks and commodities & EM currency is stock generate cash flows which can & will grow with economic development while commodities & EM currencies do not generate cash flows. The bet with stocks is productive asset growth & with commodities & EM currencies is a bet on...
by packer16
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6168

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I agree a shift to the left may have occurred but it is happened as inflation has shifted to the left also so the effects may be muted. The question IMO is what asset classes can you rely on to generate reliable above bond-like rates of return. I think you are left with equities which you can get ex...
by packer16
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6168

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I wish folks would give error bands around their expected return estimates then we would know when there is an issue.

Packer
by packer16
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4533

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

The correlation is dependent upon the asset class. IMO to say value, size and the market are uncorrelated is a stretch. To say they are weakly correlated I think is more appropriate. Also, the difference in volatility between Vanguard SCV & the S&P 500 is about 1% per my calcs since 1994 & almost th...
by packer16
Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors
Replies: 14
Views: 1190

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors

I like the idea of the idea of using the next best alternative & the effect of substituting the subject fund with other assets in your portfolio. You can test weather the fund adds value & the effect on volatility using this approach.

Packer
by packer16
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors
Replies: 14
Views: 1190

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors

Interesting article but I have a more fundamental question of using factors as an explanatory benchmark (which IMO it was intended to do) versus an active performance benchmark (that some use it for but IMO is Monday morning quarterbacking). The issue with using it for performance benchmarking is an...
by packer16
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 15
Views: 1468

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

I think BAM or BIP are good alternatives as they are investing in cash flowing assets using their company specific knowledge. BAM is the asset manager while BIP is the infrastructure fund. Here is a talk by Bruce Flatt the Brookfield CEO gave at Google recently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmt1L...
by packer16
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

IMO to say a fund is its own benchmark is marketing & self serving. The purpose of benchmarking in the first place is assess a funds performance. Its like saying I am so special I do not need grades trust me I am doing well. In any case, if worse comes to worse you can develop a benchmark of assets...
by packer16
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The big assumption on value vs. growth spreads is the future growth and risk is same over time. I would expect as the market becomes more efficient the more operationally and financially leveraged firms would migrate to the value bucket & thus eliminate a portion of the value premium caused by less ...
by packer16
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

IMO to say a fund is its own benchmark is marketing & self serving. The purpose of benchmarking in the first place is assess a funds performance. Its like saying I am so special I do not need grades trust me I am doing well. In any case, if worse comes to worse you can develop a benchmark of assets ...
by packer16
Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I think a better way to find non correlated returns is to find bond-like (income generating) assets that are modestly leveraged. Some examples are investment grade triple-net lease real estate (equivalent to first lean claims that are growing every year on underlying businesses), investment grade BD...
by packer16
Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Given its recent performance, is the current shortfall within the range of expectations? My original understanding was the fund was going to control volatility. The implication is that with lower volatility the probability for loss would be less. If that is the case then why such a large negative de...
by packer16
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

QSPIX does not need to short dividend paying stocks, it has chosen a strategy that uses this to generate its return. To get other alternative asset returns you do not need to do this, thus is this cost that AQR decides to use & paid to someone else an expense? I think it is as the investor does not ...
by packer16
Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books
Replies: 47
Views: 3450

Re: Investment Books

What do people think of Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety? I read it this summer. I thought there were some insights there. I thought it was pretty horrible. The beginning is a lot of the same "most traders lose money" stuff that you see in every investment book except with less of the rigor and cita...
by packer16
Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books
Replies: 47
Views: 3450

Re: Investment Books

I have a mix of some Bogleheadish type books worn from use, some alternative investment books, classic value investing books & financial history books. I typically find one investment book per year which is really interesting but occasionally I will find an older book with concepts repackaged at a l...
by packer16
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5768

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

One area I think this makes sense is in areas of the market institutions do not go (smaller stocks & some regions of the world) in a contrarian manner. The edge most here are discussing is an informational edge. I agree as an individual we are at huge disadvantage here & you correct to say if this w...
by packer16
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

One way to benchmark this fund is to replace equal amounts of bonds & equity in a portfolio with QSPIX under the rationale that the volatility impact on the portfolio is somewhere between bonds & stocks. The actual volatility is closer to stocks but the correlation effect reduces the volatility impa...
by packer16
Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...They attribute the recent poor performance to the value premium in equities. I posted a chart showing that neither large-cap value nor small-cap value funds had shown any similar decline, and questioned that attribution. With regard to the value funds you mention above, they are dominated by mar...
by packer16
Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?
Replies: 61
Views: 3687

Re: Can margin be beneficial for long-term investing?

One consideration here is your personal capital & how that can be used to finance the margin (or obtain a loan in advance to make a margin call if one occurs). However if you are talking about 20% leverage and investing in a diversified portfolio, then your portfolio has to decline by 78% before a m...
by packer16
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 65
Views: 9042

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Since the mid 2000's, in China, you have a leader who made himself leader for life, in Russia, Putin has invaded Ukraine & made himself leader for life & the same for Turkey (leader for life). All the trends are moving in the wrong directions in those countries. As these leaders gain power, the situ...
by packer16
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 65
Views: 9042

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

I sold all my emerging last year after holding them for 20+ years. In the last couple years I travelled to a lot of them and experienced first hand corruption, lack of transparency and lack of rules thats conducive to investing. And do you think the market is unaware there's more corruption in emer...
by packer16
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is The Right Strategy Only If The Investment Horizon Is Long?
Replies: 28
Views: 2218

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is The Right Strategy Only If The Investment Horizon Is Long?

The issue with diversification beyond bonds for the short term is every asset class except bonds has positive correlation with equities when they go down. There was very interesting article in the CFA Journal this month on this. They found that when a stock selloff hits, the correlation of otherwise...
by packer16
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14405

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

What evidence do you have? Most if not all small cap value funds are diversified & thus you have no test of the few good bargains hypothesis. I have experienced and seen others who have experienced just the opposite. IMO the reason SCV funds underperform is the diluting away of the value factor & fe...
by packer16
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14405

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I agree with Park here. You do see value at the individual security level (a cheap stock) more than you see in diversified groups of stocks. By definition this is the case. They key here is the idiosyncratic risk control. This risk control can be implemented by relative sizing based upon operational...
by packer16
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 66
Views: 14949

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

My question is more about the recession banter than the need to hire economists & more about focus versus cost. I agree they do need a few economist for some tasks but when they start putting out economic forecasts that everyone knows are wrong & can lead to poor behavior maybe they have too many or...
by packer16
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE
Replies: 66
Views: 14949

Re: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE - ASK YOUR QUESTIONS HERE

Why does Vanguard hire economists & get into the banter about the probability of a recession will be in the next few years? IMO this distracts away from the long-term philosophy of buy & hold with low cost. Does this add value to the average Vanguard investor or just add noise to an already over noi...
by packer16
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: True Risk-Adjuted Returns
Replies: 17
Views: 1230

Re: True Risk-Adjuted Returns

The issue with risk like expected returns is that it cannot be measured it only can be estimated. Another issue with risk is that it contains things that cannot be measured by past movements in prices. Things like expropriation risk, currency risk & capital flow risk. You can use volatility as a sta...
by packer16
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6168

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Stlutz, Thanks for that explanation. Like I said, limits of my knowledge. But seems to me dividend yield is pretty consistently solid roughly 2% and earnings growth usually in the range of 2-3%. Dividend yield + earnings growth + valuation changes= return Seems to me changes in the P/E ratio would ...
by packer16
Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6168

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Interesting point Park. It appears the plus or minus 5 years around retirement can be a danger window for sequence of returns risk. For the probabilistic folks out there, does it make sense to minimize the risk (i.e. smooth our returns by taking risk off the table) & thus return outside of the seque...
by packer16
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6168

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I think how much valuation matters is dependent upon your investment horizon and your distribution of your contributions. The longer your investment horizon the less valuations matter as long as you are investing in market where as a shareholder you can reap the rewards of your investment like the U...
by packer16
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 15785

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

Long term leverage is not straightforward. One can treat leverage as similar to lump sum investing. For example, one starts off with a leverage ratio of 1.3. One then adds no further leverage, and with time, the leverage ratio will decrease. The only exception is subsequent lump sums, for which the...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2047

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

The early 1800s were the Napoleonic Wars, similar to the world wars in the 19th century. Waterloo was 1815. The UK volatility comes almost 2 decades later in the 1830s. The Napoleonic War years of 1802-1815 actually appear to have no real volatility. The was a UK banking crisis in the mid to late 1...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2047

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

The early 1800s were the Napoleonic Wars, similar to the world wars in the 19th century.

Packer
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2047

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

This makes sense given the destruction of the US & worldwide banking system (which I only knew after reading accounts of the Great Depression). How could you be confident in equities when even money in many banks was no longer there. A large portion of folks life savings were gone in what was the sa...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 756

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

I calculated these myself from the filings (10-Ks) of the top 10 holdings of the Vanguard REIT using the S,G&A and the non-depreciation CoS for these REITs as a percentage of the REITs assets. An interesting observation is 7 of the top 10 REITs also have operating businesses (hosting, tower leasing ...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 756

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

Also REIT funds have 2 levels of fees versus a physical house. There is a fund fee for managing the fund of REITs and a fee for managing the underlying real estate by each REIT. This can add up. It is almost 4.5% for the low cost Vanguard REIT fund. Packer VGSLX has an expense ratio of 12 basis poi...
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 756

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

Also REIT funds have 2 levels of fees versus a physical house. There is a fund fee for managing the fund of REITs and a fee for managing the underlying real estate by each REIT. This can add up. It is almost 4.5% for the low cost Vanguard REIT fund.

Packer
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post
Replies: 15
Views: 1449

Re: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post

VIX is the volatility index a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index.
by packer16
Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post
Replies: 15
Views: 1449

Re: Robert Samuelson column -- Washington Post

If the indicies were getting more volatile, would not the VIX increase? It appears to have declined as indexing has increased in popularity.

Packer
by packer16
Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3353

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Inflation is caused by shortages & deflation by surpluses. War, famine & epidemic creates shortages of food, goods & people thus inflation. Technological advancement is very deflationary & since the entire world has now for the most part embraced a market based system these advances can be distribut...
by packer16
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5877

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

You also need to consider what happened in the years that created the low returns in the UK. The expropriation of private firms for public use after WWII surely had a large impact as well as the impact of WWII versus the US where some expropriation occurred during WWI but was reversed in the 1920s. ...
by packer16
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12757

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I know this is a different approach but I like the Kites upward ratchet approach. Where 4% is taken out every year then it is ratcheted upwards if the portfolio is greater than 50% of the inflation adjusted initial balance. The increases happen every 3 years as long as the portfolio is great than 50...
by packer16
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12757

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Thanks for your references to Kitces site. It is quite the resource.

Packer
by packer16
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12757

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I think the biggest value add of time segmentation & your ESP/DSP analysis is it determines your need to take risk (as it quantifies your needs) in a portfolio to meet your needs. You need to perform this analysis to determine your needed asset allocation. Once you do that it may be easier to have a...
by packer16
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 362
Views: 18428

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

How about Simply Bogleheads.