Bogleheads.org

ERMD

nisiprius wrote: ↑
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:28 pm
Hoggamus, higgamus,
Men are polygamous;
Higgamus, hoggamus,
Women monogamous.

I doubt that investment ideas that come to you in a dozing state of altered consciousness are any better.

Maybe, but HOG is up 7.4% the past 90 days, and HIG is up 16.5% YTD!

ERMD

epictetus wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:21 am
the holistic healer episode of seinfeld has as one of its plot lines jerry trying to decipher a joke he wrote down in the middle of the night. it turned out to not be as funny as he thought it was in the middle of the night

I believe that was "flaming globes of Sigmund".

ERMD

My favorite line is: "..don't let that sudden gem of genius vanish into thin air!" Aside from encouraging buying stock on a whim, what an awkward turn of phrase -- "sudden gem of genius". Don't they pay people a lot of money to parse this stuff?

ERMD

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/wzYi/schwab-tra ... -good-idea

Ok, so maybe the title is a bit of an exaggeration, but see for yourself. I laughed. It's so antithetical to everything about this forum that I just couldn't resist.

ERMD

The literature on why simply remaining in the market staying the course is the best strategy is rather extensive. It has been shown on more than one occasion that if one had missed the top 45 days of gains since the 1960, one's market performance over the entire 50+ year period would actually be ne...

ERMD

With "all time highs" becoming the norm these days, it was pretty staggering to see that the Dow was at about 6600 in 2009, and is now at 2300+ a mere 8 years later, about 3.5x! :greedy I figured something like that would have been totally unprecedented.. And them, I realized that the Dow actually e...

ERMD

I don't remember anything about that day (I was quite young), but I remember my mother telling me a story about how my grandfather felt the market was accelerating at an unreasonable pace throughout that summer, and advised my family to move all of our assets into conservative things shortly before ...

ERMD

Random Walker wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:03 am
Excellent article by Larry. He shows that it is more wise to stay in the market than to try to time a correction when equities seem over valued or generously valued.

This is probably the least news-worthy thing to post in this particular forum.

ERMD

Very tangential but I noticed in the proxy vote that for shareholders of VGSIX, the Vanguard REIT Index Fund, there is "Proposal to reclassify the diversification status to nondiversified." just got the proxy in the mail today and noticed that, in addition to what you noted above, there is also a v...

ERMD

If I had more money to invest and the time to do it, I would consider an investment property like a vacation rental somewhere that we could also use for a few weeks a year, but right now we can't afford that kind of investing. Hawaii would be my choice though:) :sharebeer 8-) the rentable beach hou...

ERMD

i'm sure this has been covered before, but i couldn't find any threads on a forum search. i'm interested in hearing from people who have specifically eschewed REITs in favor of individual property ownership. i've heard the argument that because of the correlation between REITs and equities, it doesn...

ERMD

I agree that more information would probably be helpful, but even with all the information in the world, there's no objectively correct answer. Purely by the numbers, the return on the Roth (depending on your AA) will probably be greater than 3.5% long term.

ERMD

I'm pretty sure large numbers of Bogleheads wouldn't mind having all of their deferred compensation in the ever-popular and long-running Wellington fund. Could have been much worse!

ERMD

i daytrade the ES emini futures.....been studying/learning for 8 years....... have a system that just started generating me $....Fully expect this to make more than my salary in a year or so but am not counting on this. has anyone in the history of human civilization ever uttered the phrase "i have...

ERMD

Still, as Jefferson said in response to someone railing about the new colonial government in the US, "Democracy is the worst from of government...next to all the others." Did you mean Churchill? ..who also said that the best argument against democracy was a five minute discussion with the average v...

ERMD

He's always leaned towards the conservative side of neutrality. This is not a huge stretch. Also, as noted above, the mods of this forum might ask Mr. Bogle -- is this discussion actionable?

ERMD

If you visualize the typical portfolio growth chart, it's not the front end of the compound growth you are sacrificing, it's the back end, where each increment of time corresponds to much larger increments in portfolio balance. this has less impact abstractly, but you're right in that thinking abou...

ERMD

IPS calls for 6 months of emergent assets before any big ticket spending, but we've found ourselves sometimes dropping to 2 or 3 months in order to make big purchases. or, IPS calls to max out 2 Roths high on the list of budgetary priorities, but we've actually fallen under the cap some years. do p...

ERMD

You're using 99% vs. 100% to accuse us of suggesting something is worthless . Surely somebody with an MD-level education doesn't need to be told to avoid illogical leaps. was i using hyperbole? a bit. but you literally were suggesting there's no point in having an IPS if you ever deviate from it. Y...

ERMD

I won't repeat my history in retirement here except to say that real life retirement withdrawals follow no such rule. Let it be a guide. Watch your savings balance. Spend when your balance is up, watch it when your savings are lower. I can tell you that annual expenses don't follow any rules. +1. n...

ERMD

In essence, if you don't actually follow your IPS, why even bother spending time developing one? this is what i truly don't understand. people seem to view this issue in a very black/white way that makes no sense to me. if you follow your IPS 99% of the time, but not 100% of the time, that makes th...

ERMD

willthrill81 wrote:But for each person, there is no "failure rate"; you either succeed or you fail.

bingo

ERMD

IPS calls for 6 months of emergent assets before any big ticket spending, but we've found ourselves sometimes dropping to 2 or 3 months in order to make big purchases. or, IPS calls to max out 2 Roths high on the list of budgetary priorities, but we've actually fallen under the cap some years. do p...

ERMD

Greg in Idaho wrote:but I have a 0% failure rate on the current plan

does not exist

ERMD

i'll echo two things: 1) we live in a HCOL area, where our 1000 sqft, 100 year old house cost 500k. "just move" is not particularly helpful advice for people in this scenario. 2) vacations? credit card sign-up bonuses. look at blogs like million mile secrets, or the points guy. build your credit slo...

ERMD

congratulations! hopefully we'll be there too sometime before the rapture.

ERMD

450K for 4 years of a private college in 15 years is probably pretty accurate. Current costs are near 300K at some schools. I used a calculator when my children were just born and the estimate it gave me was extremely accurate. The issue as mentioned is what if they receive a scholarship or go to a...

ERMD

IPS calls for 6 months of emergent assets before any big ticket spending, but we've found ourselves sometimes dropping to 2 or 3 months in order to make big purchases. or, IPS calls to max out 2 Roths high on the list of budgetary priorities, but we've actually fallen under the cap some years. do pe...

ERMD

not familiar with cfiresim, but it seems to be an overly technical reflection of what happens in real life as people are drawing down retirement assets. except in real life, it's probably much more gestalt-y.

ERMD

450K for 4 years of a private college in 15 years is probably pretty accurate. Current costs are near 300K at some schools. I used a calculator when my children were just born and the estimate it gave me was extremely accurate. The issue as mentioned is what if they receive a scholarship or go to a...

ERMD

450K for 4 years of a private college in 15 years is probably pretty accurate. Current costs are near 300K at some schools. I used a calculator when my children were just born and the estimate it gave me was extremely accurate. The issue as mentioned is what if they receive a scholarship or go to a...

ERMD

That's why I think we'll see a 10-15% "correction" this year people seem to be looking for the mythical 10% correction every year for the past several years. it's turning into the loch ness monster. especially when it becomes clear that many of the things driving the market right now -- expectation...

ERMD

you have just about 900k invested at this point. your "magic number" for retirement is probably somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million dollars. assuming retirement at 59.5, you're doing just fine. you'll probably even be fine for early retirement if you keep this pace up. 450k is an insane target for a...

ERMD

I feel bad that I haven't hit any of my rebalancing bands even with this runup. I do have regular contributions to the 401k and my annual IRA contribution, so those have probably muted the need to tweak. i was thinking the same thing. i'm just over 2% off my targets and don't rebalance until 5%. i ...

ERMD

More broadly I would say standard Boglehead 3-fund portfolio kind of allocation can be said to be relatively high conviction on broad stock and bond performance (market beta, term risk, etc.), relatively low conviction or outright skepticism on relative stockpicking, discretionary active, maybe oth...

ERMD

Just saw an Invesco commercial which was essentially a subtle attack against passive indexing. They are advocating "high conviction investing" and ask (paraphrasing): "why be happy with average returns?" Am I correct in assuming that "high conviction investing" is a thinly veiled euphamism for activ...

ERMD

On gross of $800K, and AGI of $670K, we paid $215K in federal (fed + FICA + Medicare) plus $55K in state (CA). So based on a percent of gross, total was 34% (40% of AGI). Reductions from gross to AGI include 401K/KEOGH/Cash Balance Plan, medical/dental insurance, capital losses and 50% of SE tax. M...

ERMD

Ethelred wrote:Those state taxes.

Yes, that's a killer. Without the state taxes, we're down to 27%. We actually live quite frugally otherwise and have an infinitesimally small mortgage compared to our AGI.

ERMD

Deductions are pretty straightforward with some record keeping to get ALL one's charitable contributions. Foreign tax credit? You should probably always have a net $3,000 loss showing for your Schedule D result with a carryover to next year. No FTC, and all investment income is in tax-deferred or t...

ERMD

No, of course, we're not taking anything for granted. I was more interested in whether or not our total tax was a standard deviation (or two) above the mean for our AGI, even though I'm fairly certain we haven't missed any obvious deductions/deferments/contributions.

ERMD

Interesting poll. Using the "Adjusted Livesoft Income" instead of the AGI, we would be at ~29%. Still probably among the top 10% of all people taking that poll, and maybe higher. Not terribly reassuring, as perhaps was your intention.

ERMD

Just preliminarily crunched the numbers for 2016, and our total tax is 155k (125k Federal, 30k State) on 450k income, or 35% of our AGI. This is a massive jump for us, as our salary was significantly lower in 2015 (paid 60k total tax on 260k income, or 23% of AGI). We maximize contributions to 403b,...

ERMD

Thanks for the responses. It's primarily my settlement account, and I don't keep anything in here long term (I believe it was my default settlement account). I rarely have any money there at all -- was just curious about the change.

ERMD

Just noticed this when logging onto my Vanguard account today: As of 12/23/2016, the expense ratio on your Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund has changed from 0.00% to 0.11%. My money market settlement account will now have a higher expense ratio than any of my index funds. My question is.. what giv...

ERMD

You probably know most of this already, but just to clarify.. Your non-gov 457b is technically not a traditional investment account, but deferred compensation . You authorize the hospital to withhold it from you and invest it, with the agreement that you'll withdraw it at a later date (the "deferred...

ERMD

i'm not sure what the big deal is: (from Vanguard portfolio allocation models) 80% stocks Historical Risk/Return (1926–2015) Average annual return 9.5% Best year (1933) 45.4% Worst year (1931) –34.9% Years with a loss 23 of 90 100% stocks Historical Risk/Return (1926–2015) Average annual return 10.1...

ERMD

i was just graduating high school. the only tech bubble i knew about at the time involved a 14.4 baud modem.

ERMD

You are referring to, what would be called in Texas Hold'em, pot odds versus drawing odds. I believe you're right in many respects, save for the fact that with a jackpot this large (and publicity to match), the odds of a single winner now are quite small, so the winners will be splitting the pot. Th...

ERMD

i agree with RBS and JPM, and think that everyone should dump their equities immediately. i'll give you fifty cents on the dollar!

ERMD

1979.96

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