Search found 51 matches

by supaflix
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5676

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

I agree with you that bitcoin today has been highly volatile and certainly does not meet that definition *today* but as long as the network survives(HUGE IF) and the 1% scenario plays out it will approach that definition better than any other money in human history. I should have said 'if the exper...
by supaflix
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5676

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

If bitcoin was dead, we would not see Goldman Sachs starting trading desks.. Sure you would. They're the same geniuses that bet on subprime mortgages. They're willing to play as long as they think there are suckers out there willing to take it off their hands. This. If Goldman Sachs was buying and ...
by supaflix
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5676

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

...Bitcoin is hard money... Please tell me your definition of "hard money" and cite a source for that definition. Brushing aside the unrelated term "hard money lending," I will assume that by "hard money" you mean the same thing "hard currency." Some definitions of "hard currency" include: Oxford E...
by supaflix
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5676

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

Bitcoin is many things... And one of those things is a bubble. That's all I need to know about bitcoin. No thanks. What is your definition of bubble? If you avoided things that were ever bubbles you would not invest in any tech stocks. If something is a bubble, will it always be a bubble? What happ...
by supaflix
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5676

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

There is certainly a market for secure, purely digital payment methods, and Bitcoin was developed with that in mind from the beginning. Who can say if Bitcoin ever ends up fulfilling that role. The odds are probably against it, but if it happens, every household in the world is going to need to hav...
by supaflix
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5676

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

There is certainly a market for secure, purely digital payment methods, and Bitcoin was developed with that in mind from the beginning. Who can say if Bitcoin ever ends up fulfilling that role. The odds are probably against it, but if it happens, every household in the world is going to need to hav...
by supaflix
Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

I believe the price action of bitcoin is purely based on technology adoption. As more people adopt, the price goes up. As more people leave, the price goes down. The question is whether or not bitcoin adoption will continue to increase in the future and at what rate that adoption is. The recent pric...
by supaflix
Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Bill Miller's hedge fund now has half its money in bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin still has legs. $50,000. TravelforFun For a guy who built his career on value investing, that is just incredible. This is Gambler's Remorse-- double or quits. He must basically be telling his investors "you will make the ...
by supaflix
Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Here is Peter Brandt showing it in a chart. https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/935698728639328256 Maybe I didn't use correct terminology if so I apologize. What I was trying to convey is there was an upwards logarithmic channel BTC was trading in for majority of 2017. It had obeyed the support ...
by supaflix
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a b...
by supaflix
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a b...
by supaflix
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a b...
by supaflix
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

One last comment. The biggest misinterpretation regarding BTC price movement is trying to apply regular rules of finance to a technology network. Outsider looking in will say 'Nothing can appreciate that fast!!' But what if you are witnessing monetization of technology adoption curve instead of a bu...
by supaflix
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

75,000 sometime in 2018. I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before Jan...
by supaflix
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

75,000 sometime in 2018. I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before Jan...
by supaflix
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 20574

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

75,000 sometime in 2018. I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reached speculation mania which is outstripping the true adoption rate..this has lead to price outstripping underlying network utility value. Because of this parabola, we will hit 24K before Janu...
by supaflix
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24776

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

BTW, I have no idea whether bitcoin blockchain can scale or not. It's far too complex for a layman to fully understand. Even the experts can't agree. There's another faction that disagrees with the Core Developers and says that bitcoin has no problem scaling. They have hard forked another version c...
by supaflix
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency marketplace hacked, pilfered for +- 60 million
Replies: 10
Views: 2205

Re: Cryptocurrency marketplace hacked, pilfered for +- 60 million

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/06/nicehash_diced_up_by_hackers_thousands_of_bitcoin_pilfered/ Cryptocurrency mining market NiceHash says it has fallen victim to a hacking attack that may have resulted in the loss of its entire Bitcoin wallet. "Unfortunately, there has been a security breach ...
by supaflix
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24776

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Looking through this tread where are 95% negative comments about bitcoin, how it has little or no value, and/or is a bubble that will surely pop soon. Is this the sentiment to expect when we are near a bubble top? Many academics have stated that bubbles cannot reliably be identified while the bubbl...
by supaflix
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24776

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Looking through this tread where are 95% negative comments about bitcoin, how it has little or no value, and/or is a bubble that will surely pop soon. Is this the sentiment to expect when we are near a bubble top? Many academics have stated that bubbles cannot reliably be identified while the bubbl...
by supaflix
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24776

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Looking through this tread where are 95% negative comments about bitcoin, how it has little or no value, and/or is a bubble that will surely pop soon. Is this the sentiment to expect when we are near a bubble top? Many academics have stated that bubbles cannot reliably be identified while the bubble...
by supaflix
Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 13966

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I'm reading about low income folks buying in now to get rich. That's a big red flag for me. I don’t think many on here believe it’s not a bubble. You can still make money in a bubble but you gotta know when to sell. As we all know, that’s impossible. Sentiment regarding bitcoin on this forum and ot...
by supaflix
Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 20220

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

While I think your end portfolio(70/20/10 equity/bnd/btc) is a very reasonable portfolio % I disagree with how you go there. Bitcoin has not shown price correlation with equity or bonds or even gold(to this stage). I believe the lack of correlation is that it is still in price discovery stage. Once ...
by supaflix
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 20220

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

I have 90% of my portfolio in a 80/20 mix with combo of domestic equity, international equity, and BND. The other 10% is in bitcoin. I've had to avg down the bitcoin component twice now due to rapid growth otherwise it would be 30% of my portfolio. After watching the bitcoin market this year, it cer...
by supaflix
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 43252

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Does anyone have the bad feeling that people are joining this site and others simply to pump up Bitcoin similar to penny stocks? The level of not only troll activity but extreme fanboyism is so far out there it remind me of the dot com run up. I think thats an unfair statement. The appeal of Bitcoi...
by supaflix
Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 20220

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Another thought I had. I've been following the price of Bitcoin over the past few weeks, and I got a first hand look at the volatility. However, on this thread we discussed that the price could quickly go to zero. Now that I think about it, I don't think that's realistically possible. If the price ...
by supaflix
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

Imagine paying in bitcoin and waiting an hour for your transaction to complete. Exactly.... Anyone who is promoting bitcoin NOW is a shill. They may be there someday.... but there are not there NOW, and may never be. Transaction fees and time to settle has gone UP over the past few years not down. ...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

The reason stores process credit cards is because they're convenient consumers want to use them not because they have the lowest transaction fees. Otherwise stores would only accept debit cards or cash. Pretty much all solutions I've seen to make Bitcoin payments more convenient have some sort of p...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

Burger King Russia has just released a new crypto-currency called WhopperCoin This is not a joke. But man, I feel like laughing (or maybe crying). The Tulip Bulb bubble of our age. Trouble is, if it crashes, will it be a trouble to the rest of us? Why do you think it is a tulip bubble? Is it becaus...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

It is cheaper to transact with cryptos than the current merchant fees charged by credit card companies. This is false for bitcoin right now. The transaction fees are very high. Nope, transaction fees are low and variable Probably avg of a couple dollars to move anywhere from 1 cent to $5million dol...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

This is an interesting question. Neither makes its own value, unlike like companies working to generate profits (i.e., stocks). Both Bitcoin and gold just sit there, hoping that the next person is willing to pay more for them than the previous person. That's why I invest in neither. However, if I h...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

Also, do you see the inefficiencies of going to the store, buying a disc, and placing in your Blu-ray player? You lose time, money, and now you have to store the disc and bring it with you to have access. If instead you had purchased a 'digital' copy you can take it access it at work, home, vacation...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

We live in a digital world. What Netflix did to Blockbuster. What Amazon is doing to retail. What Uber did to the taxi industry. We are witnessing legacy systems disrupted by more efficient digital systems. Bitcoin will disrupt the banking/financial industry. Ethereum will be internet 2.0. Your lis...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

This is an interesting question. Neither makes its own value, unlike like companies working to generate profits (i.e., stocks). Both Bitcoin and gold just sit there, hoping that the next person is willing to pay more for them than the previous person. That's why I invest in neither. However, if I h...
by supaflix
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

This is an interesting question. Neither makes its own value, unlike like companies working to generate profits (i.e., stocks). Both Bitcoin and gold just sit there, hoping that the next person is willing to pay more for them than the previous person. That's why I invest in neither. However, if I h...
by supaflix
Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8538

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Glad there is more bitcoin discussion on Bogleheads. I am a young Boglehead with a strong desire to squeeze all alpha out of my risk-adjusted portfolio. In my mind, Bitcoin and other cryptos provide the best risk adjusted return available for me to invest in right now. I see other Bogleheads using ...
by supaflix
Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8538

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Over the next few months we will see a US based bitcoin ETF, approval of options trading with CBOE, and yes..much more Bitcoin volatility. I generally see Bitcoin hitting 6K before end of 2017. 10K before end of year 2018. It may have another downturn as low as $2800-$2600 if this current bounce do...
by supaflix
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 8883

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

Easy answer : Crypto. Best risk:return ratio vehicle available to any investor on this board right now. Use a 1-5% crypto tilt with increased bond exposure to create a portfolio with less risk and more return than your current portfolio. By this boards reaction to crypto reassures me that we are not...
by supaflix
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8538

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Glad there is more bitcoin discussion on Bogleheads. I am a young Boglehead with a strong desire to squeeze all alpha out of my risk-adjusted portfolio. In my mind, Bitcoin and other cryptos provide the best risk adjusted return available for me to invest in right now. I see other Bogleheads using a...
by supaflix
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?
Replies: 25
Views: 6720

Re: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?

There is much talk within Bogleheads camp of using a small cap value tilt to squeeze alpha out of their portfolio with reasoning being the small cap provides a better risk:return ratio aka a better Sharpe ratio. The Boglehead would then take risk off the table in another asset class, possibly by inc...
by supaflix
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?
Replies: 25
Views: 6720

Re: Anyone following the latest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news?

Bitcoin with new all time high last night of $3240 breaking through resistance. Market cap $52 billion. $1.6 billion USD worth of BTC traded in past 24 hours. Recent approval for US based option trading expected by year end 2017. Soon after that, expected US based ETF trading. Gaining worldwide adop...
by supaflix
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Purchase
Replies: 99
Views: 14652

Re: Bitcoin Purchase

I think the problem is Bogleheads(I am a boglehead) are trying to apply efficient market theory to bitcoin. At this point, I don't think all the variables are there for that. 1. Barriers to buying bitcoin are high. Mutual funds and other managers etc cannot purchase it. GBTC Bitcoin investment trust...
by supaflix
Sat Oct 08, 2016 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sorry, but tell [me] what to do with my mortgage
Replies: 62
Views: 6395

Re: Sorry, but tell [me] what to do with my mortgage

My two cents: If viewing this as a net worth issue and removing human emotion: Filling pre-tax retirement 401k's nearly 100% of time should go before paying down mortgage. Tax-advantaged retirement accounts are the biggest tax saver for the majority of us. Mortgage interest deduction being the 2nd b...
by supaflix
Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take mortgage loan of under 3% and invest the money?
Replies: 39
Views: 5907

Re: Should I take mortgage loan of under 3% and invest the money?

No one needs to leverage themselves to win the game. If you're worried you need more money invested to retire simply cut back your spending and invest more of your income. When everything is boiled down isn't it just risk versus return? If tax advantaged investing via mortgage interest deduction le...
by supaflix
Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off Mortgage or invest in VWIUX
Replies: 34
Views: 3263

Re: Pay off Mortgage or invest in VWIUX

Last year the mortgage interest saved me about 2,700 in federal taxes, if that makes a difference. Feller comes up to you, says pay me 5,000 and I will save you 2,700 in your taxes. Sound like a good deal? What are you saving? Not only do you get the $2700, but you also get $5000 in the market work...
by supaflix
Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off Mortgage or invest in VWIUX
Replies: 34
Views: 3263

Re: Pay off Mortgage or invest in VWIUX

Last year the mortgage interest saved me about 2,700 in federal taxes, if that makes a difference. Feller comes up to you, says pay me 5,000 and I will save you 2,700 in your taxes. Sound like a good deal? What are you saving? Not only do you get the $2700, but you also get $5000 in the market work...
by supaflix
Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable or tax deferred?
Replies: 7
Views: 960

Re: Bonds in taxable or tax deferred?

Add on question to initial question. Assumes maxing all tax advantaged accounts and significant savings into taxable account. What about for an investor currently in top tax bracket that planned to retire at age 55 or so and slowly perform tax deferred conversion to Roth over many years to take adva...
by supaflix
Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Mortgage - Help Needed
Replies: 42
Views: 3569

Re: New Mortgage - Help Needed

I just refinanced my home. I did a lot of interest rate shopping online. I ended up going with Aimloan.com and got a 2.75% 15 year fixed loan for 20% down. Closing costs were approximately 4.5k all inclusive. Penfed.com has good rates as well if you want a more established name. I was happy with my ...