Search found 24050 matches

by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement/Life Strategy vs 4 Fund DIY balancing
Replies: 5
Views: 572

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement/Life Strategy vs 4 Fund DIY balancing

danceswithhammer: In my opinion, the decision whether to use a Vanguard Target Retirement vs. a 4-Fund Portfolio is usually very easy: If you have both taxable and retirement accounts, chose individual funds. This allows you to place tax-efficient stock funds into taxable accounts and tax- in effici...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1511
Views: 213663

"Past Performance"

Bogleheads:

It is time for a word of caution because this has become a very long thread full of past performance figures that are unlikely to repeat.

"What Experts Say About Past Performance."

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State Municipal Bonds verse Total Bond Index
Replies: 10
Views: 626

Re: State Municipal Bonds verse Total Bond Index

Thank you very much Taylor. I recently read your book, The Bogleheads Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio, and really enjoyed it. Which particular tax exempt bond fund do you hold in your taxable account? Highlandbeach: I do not hold bonds in my taxable account--only a tax-efficient stock fund. If I ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State Municipal Bonds verse Total Bond Index
Replies: 10
Views: 626

Re: State Municipal Bonds verse Total Bond Index

How does the risk of Vanguard State Tax Exempt Municipal bond fund compare to Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund? Highlandbeach: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! I like the analysis by stlutz. This is Vanguard's analysis: Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Bond Fund (VNJVX) has a "Risk Potential"...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 34
Views: 2100

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/11/15/factor-investing-fact-check-are-value-and-momentum-dead/ Interesting paper with nice graphics. Very humbling for a factor head like me. S&P 500 is effectively a bet on the mega cap growth corner of the market: a bet that has paid off very well the last 5 years!...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Stay The Course" by John Bogle
Replies: 5
Views: 1187

"Stay The Course" by John Bogle

Bogleheads: Jack Bogle's new book is now on sale at Amazon. It is the story of John Bogle's desire "to give ordinary investors a fair shake" It is also the amazing story of how Jack's inventive genius, perseverance, caring, commitment, integrity and fairness built Vanguard and transformed the lives ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interesting call with my 80yr old mothers Fidelity advisor
Replies: 30
Views: 4524

Re: interesting call with my 80yr old mothers Fidelity advisor

lomarica01:

It is often better for an elderly person NOT to sell securities in a taxable account. This is because selling profitable securities usually triggers a tax on any profit. At death all capital gains are eliminated and a new cost basis begins.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comment from Bogleheads book about future market gains
Replies: 8
Views: 937

Re: Comment from Bogleheads book about future market gains

Greetings, Bogleheads, my name is Casey and this is officially my first post/question. I am an Air Force colonel stationed overseas with my family. I just finished reading The Bogleheads Guide to Investing, and a few times in the book (I wish I could find where) it mentions that we probably won't e...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve oddity
Replies: 22
Views: 1354

Dropping TIPS?

TIPS tend to be more volatile than nominal Treasuries. This caught many Bogleheads members by surprise in 2008, even though the volatility was normal given the average duration. If I understand correctly, this caused some prominent members, including one of our leaders Taylor Larimore, to drop TIPS...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 2338

Re: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-7-investing-rules?nopaging=1 Very Bogleheadish advice for all of us: references to Buffett and Graham, stomach and mind, Santayana, non normal distribution of returns, current valuations and future expected returns, Jonathan Clements, Napol...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cremation seminar – with complimentary lunch
Replies: 68
Views: 4481

Re: Cremation seminar – A better way.

Bogleheads: I have made arrangements with the University of Miami Medical Department to receive my remains from a funeral home to improve medical science. The U of M reimburses the funeral home and pays for eventual cremation of my remains. My dad showed me the benefits when he died. I appreciate ha...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Emergency Fund; How Much to Keep Very Liquid?
Replies: 17
Views: 1420

Re: Retirement Emergency Fund; How Much to Keep Very Liquid?

I’m curious how retirees allocate their emergency funds based on liquidity. How do you structure your emergency fund? 3504PIR: I have never felt the need for separate, low-yielding emergency fund that may never be used. I am confident that my bank account, Vanguard portfolio, and/or my credit card ...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 220
Views: 38166

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

In the foreword, Bogle states the following: For U.S. investors, Taylor suggests that 20% of the equity allocation should be placed in a Total International Stock Index Fund. That suggested 20% is essentially a compromise between my suggested maximum of 20% and the minimum 20% recommended by a Vang...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 13849

Re: "Yes, you can supercharge your portfolio"

Bogleheads:

Stein and DeMuth wrote an earler book in 2008, I added it to my Investment Gems:

Yes, you can supercharge your portfolio

Best wishes
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1511
Views: 213663

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

There are trade offs between expenses and improved portfolio efficiency. Random Walker: There is no "trade off." Low-cost funds (on average) beat high-cost funds: "If there's anything in the whole world of mutual funds that you can take to the bank, it's that expense ratios help you make a better d...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brand New to Boggleheads, Thoughts on my stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 685

What experts say about buying individual stocks

Cheesoro: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! Hey all, I'm a 21 year old college student. I work as a part-time student assistant so my income is hardly anything. I was speaking with an older coworker about stocks as I just got into the market and I'm trying to learn. So far, I've invested around $800....
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1511
Views: 213663

TSP (government mutual funds)

Once I separate from the Military, I will likely move a great deal of money from my TSP account and will use a portion of it to invest in some other liquid alternatives. whitegold: Be in no hurry to move "a great deal of money from my TSP account." The TSP funds are among the best and lowest cost f...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8094

Asset Allocation

Bogleheads:

Our stock/bond allocation is more important than any single mutual fund.

It is this allocation, more than anything else, that determines our expected return and expected risk.

Best wishes

Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question
Replies: 25
Views: 2836

"Little Book of Common Sense Investing"

I bought Mr. Bogle's Common Sense investing book and hope to start reading it soon. esmac: I can think of no better way to learn successful investing than reading Jack's Bogle's, "Little Book of Common Sense Investing." Read the book by Mr. Bogle, ( who knows more than any of us about investing ), ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Swensen - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?
Replies: 22
Views: 3046

Re: Swensen - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?

I've been looking at Swenson's Lazy Portfolio. For international stock he recommends Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund and Developed Markets Fund instead of just Total International Stock Index Fund. Does anyone know why? GaryA505: Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund holds both Emerging M...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question
Replies: 25
Views: 2836

Re: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question

Hello! This is my first post. Someone gives you $1,000,000 and you have to invest all of the money in either one of the two Vanguard index funds for twenty (20) years. 1. VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VFIAX 2. VTSAX Vanguard Total St...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 451
Views: 79991

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I’m not saying Bogle is stupid or malicious: just that’s he’s wrong in this subject and his arguments are illogical. vineviz: Mr. Bogle has been right as clearly shown on the graph above. Give the man his due. You may not agree with Jack, but is arguments are not "illogical." If you read his 26 pag...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12884

5-year records

nedsaid wrote: But again, the 5 year record (QSPIX 5.05%) looks pretty good.
Nedsaid:

You should love the 5 year record of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX 11.32%).

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12884

Complexity vs. Simplicity

Bogleheads: I spent most of my life working in finance. I understand less than half of the academic theories being thrown about in this thread. We can take solace knowing what experts say: Scott Adams, author of Dilbert: "I once tried to write a book about personal investing. After extensive researc...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 451
Views: 79991

Words of wisdom

Bogleheads:

When I look at oldzey's graph (above), I am reminded of this statement by author Bill Bernstein:
"When I disagree with Jack Bogle – I am usually wrong."
Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets not at all time highs
Replies: 19
Views: 2465

Re: Stock markets not at all time highs

For those that have been posting about being scared about investing at all time highs, I have some great news for you. Most of the markets, including the US, are not trading at all time highs right now: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1060163604689838080. In fact, a number are down 20-30%...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12884

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Bogleheads: It is interesting to learn that "AQR is one of the few Wall Street firms to mint three billionaires." AQR investors should ask AQR, "Where did their money come from?" Two years ago I made a post about "Factor Investing." In the post was this statement: AQR is noted for its factor funds. ...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX VS FSKAX [Vanguard vs. Fidelity Total Stock Market]
Replies: 7
Views: 999

Re: VTSAX VS FSKAX [Vanguard vs. Fidelity Total Stock Market]

Newbie here. I need some help comparing funds. Fidelity now has an expense ratio of 0.015% on FSKAX. Vanguard is at 0.04% on VTSAX. Both are total market funds. How can U decide which is the better deal? On $500k, the Fidelity fund costs $75 per year while the Vanguard costs $200. What is the best ...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2308
Views: 1456855

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I’m a strong proponent of the 3 bond fund and currently have my 403b mostly invested this way. I am currently in FXNAX for bonds, FSKAX for total market and FTIEX for total international. I do have a smaller percentage in a medical and technology index fund. My main question is about FTIEX. I’m not...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6193

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

Taylor—are those real returns or nominal returns? And do they include any assumptions about taxes on interest coupons? These are nominal returns. You can figure the real (after inflation) returns by subtracting inflation from the nominal returns. Taxes, which are different for everyone, are not inc...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6193

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

I've yet to read through a quality explanation of why bond funds don't get hammered in a rising rate environment? The lazy analysis you hear a lot is that bonds are a terrible place to be in such an environment. Can someone provide a thorough explanation of how bond funds that many of you invest in...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8094

Re: What's everyone currently in?

Hi everyone I'm just curious with all the volatility in the market right now what's everyone currently invested in? I have my Roth IRA with VTI, BND, VXUS which is very basic I haven't touched it in years but with all this volatility I'm thinking I may want to. Zeusy Zeus: You are invested in The T...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1619

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

Azinon: I wrote: Bonds are for safety. Stocks are for higher returns. You wrote: Well, the statement is just wrong (anything other than T-bills aren't just for safety), so if that's what he intended to imply he should clarify it . This earlier post should clarify it. In my opinion, ANY good quality ...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What To Do When An Investment Strategy Performs Poorly
Replies: 11
Views: 1722

Factor Funds?

Bogleheads:

My thoughts about "factor investing" are here.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1619

Bogle's Brilliance

alec wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:05 pm
Here are Bogle's speeches. The one on bonds I was thinking of is:

Bond Funds: Treadmill to Oblivion?
alec:

In my opinion, Mr. Bogle's speech, "Bond Funds: Treadmill to Oblivion" demonstrates the depth and brilliance of Jack's mind more than any other.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10543

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Contrary to Fama's postulate that bubbles do not exist because of EMH, Didier Sornette shows that they do, and he apparently can predict when they burst (in this video he says he predicted the time the stock market crashed in China): https://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 19
Views: 2713

90-year study: Large-caps vs. Small-caps.

Bogleheads: I wonder how many small-cap advocates will read this: According to a 90-year study by Bessembinder, when buy-and-hold portfolios of stocks are sorted by beginning market cap and held for a decade, large-cap portfolio returns are higher (153 percent) than the mean returns for small-cap po...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1619

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

And in 2008 a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX) outperformed Pimco Total Return PTTRX by a whopping $33. PTTRX has been a great fund. However it requires a one-million dollar minimum investment. In my opinion, ANY good quality safe investment (cash, CDs, Treasuries...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1619

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

There are some actively managed bond funds that have outperformed TBM over a long period of time in total returns. Some have decent ER too. An example: USAIX income fund (intermediate bonds) ER = 0.49 vs. VBMFX. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Plug them into l...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13163

Re: Diversification Regret

Bogleheads: The Three Fund Portfolio contains over 15,000, non-overlapping, worldwide securities at extremely low cost. This amount of diversification was unthinkable until the introduction by Jack Bogle of total market index funds. " More diversification " is a term often used by brokers and adviso...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 80 year old wants to invest $100k to get ~$10k annually. Options?
Replies: 22
Views: 3865

Re: 80 year old wants to invest $100k to get ~$10k annually. Options?

bargainhuntingking A Single Premium Immediate Annuity (SPIA), mentioned by JoMoney, will provide the highest guaranteed lifetime income of any investment. I own two SPIAs purchased near age 80 (I'm now 94). They have proven to be excellent investments. Best of all, they provide insurance that I will...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Edward Jones IRA is out performing my Vanguard 401K
Replies: 76
Views: 9892

Re: My Edward Jones IRA is out performing my Vanguard 401K

CashedOut:

Thank you for posting the time you held your portfolio. It was too short to prove "churning."

You will find this article informative:

Edward Jones Saga

Best wishes

Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13163

Re: Diversification Regret

Even Taylor Larimore has dropped International Stocks and TIPS from his portfolio. A word of explanation may be in order: International stocks: Up until a few years ago I had both the S&P 500 Index Fund and Total International in my taxable account. I had been withdrawing from my international fund...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9394

How Much International Stock? A Suggestion.

Bogleheads:

"How much international stock" is one of the controversial subjects in investing. I wrote this post two years ago to help answer the question:

How Much International Stock?

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6947

Market-Weight in U.S. Stocks

Diversifying across Value and Growth, Small and Large should give you a less volatile portfolio. You can't get this with a Total Market Index, you need to tilt to get factor diversification. Bogleheads: Sorry, I disagree. Total Stock Market Index Funds ALREADY hold the U.S. market weight in Value, ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Grandmother has 80% stocks
Replies: 55
Views: 5356

A wise grandmother.

I asked why she is still invested so aggressively. She said the reason is because she has held these Vanguard funds for so many years, and if she sold, the tax bill would be enormous. simplesauce: Your wise old grandmother is tax-savvy. If she does not need to sell, she shouldn't. At death, all tho...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 220
Views: 38166

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

Don't forget to post your positive reviews on Amazon since that helps other readers decide if Taylor's book is right for them. I posted a positive review! Thanks again for the great book Taylor. Abuss: I thank you and others for your "Reviews." A good review means more sales and therefore more roya...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2577

Re: What is an "advanced" investor?

Ron Scott asked: "What is an advanced investor?" Anyone who believes in The Bogleheads Investment Philosophy: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Mini...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6947

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Taylor, Mr. Bogle's "Telltale Chart" speech has been pretty effectively debunked. Indeed our own Siamond has done work on this and it contradicts Bogle's assertions. nedsed: I am not smart enough to know whether Mr. Bogle or Siamond is correct. I DO know it probably doesn't matter: "Using past perf...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 2
Views: 623

Re: 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Xanadu wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:15 pm
Hi Taylor. I believe that link is to the 2017 contest.
Zanadu:

I believe you are right. I'll edit it immediately.

Thank you and best wishes
Taylor