Search found 510 matches

by countmein
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 109
Views: 4894

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

The problem with X living expenses in fixed income is that it requires more decisions to maintain the portfolio. For example: If you have 10X in fixed income, and stocks decline, you must withdraw from your fixed income pile. Now you are down to, let’s say, 9X in fixed income. When do you replenish...
by countmein
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultrashort bond as substitute for Total Bond?
Replies: 13
Views: 877

Vanguard Ultrashort bond as substitute for Total Bond?

Currently, VUSFX-- Vanguard Ultrashort is yielding more than VBTLX with about 8x less volatility. Seems like a good alternative to VBTLX while credit spreads are blown out? VUSFX duration: 1 year SEC yield: 2.11 standard deviation: 0.4% ave credit: A VBTLX duration: 6 years SEC yield: 1.91 standard ...
by countmein
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Profit Interest Units (PIUs) Granted by Employer
Replies: 6
Views: 381

Re: Profit Interest Units (PIUs) Granted by Employer

Hopefully your operating agreement mandates tax distributions otherwise things could get rough. I suggest not trying to do your own taxes from here on out, my return ballooned with complexity. I have not yet received the operating agreement. What specifically should I be looking for there to avoid ...
by countmein
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Profit Interest Units (PIUs) Granted by Employer
Replies: 6
Views: 381

Re: Profit Interest Units (PIUs) Granted by Employer

I have PIUs and have been simultaneously a W2 employee for the same company. I had read that you're not supposed to do that, you should take your salary as guaranteed payments. But my CPA wasn't worried about it. Pay quarterly taxes. Probably file an extension using a preliminary k-1 then a real k-1...
by countmein
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Replies: 129
Views: 8894

Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Anybody greed-selling? That is, you sell now to generate "dry powder" (hate that phrase) so you can buy lower. I look at my bond money and I wish I had more to deploy, so perhaps there's still time to "raise cash" (hate that one too). Markets going lower is a pretty easy call... economies that haven...
by countmein
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16133

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

Here’s something for you. I know that stocks are going to get pummeled this week. Absolutely know it. There is so much delusion right now about market impacts and it has been building pressure all weekend. I think the Dow will be down over a thousand points again on Monday again. I don’t just think...
by countmein
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16133

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

I totally relate to this thread. I too was scratching my head every day for two weeks wondering why the market was not reacting. There were journal articles telling us, with decent degrees of certainty, the near-future course of the epidemic. It was, first of all, strange to feel like the future was...
by countmein
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

the majority of opinions on the 'house scenario' (including in this thread) are that most side with 'rental property = real estate part of an AA' (and is also part of net worth) and 'non-rental property is not part of the real estate part of an AA' (but is part of net worth). And that is a fallacio...
by countmein
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

my thought is that we ask ourselves what are the 'generally recognized' limits/boundaries/components of an 'AA'. (not net worth, but an AA). is it stocks/bonds/cash? ex: 50/45/5 most would agree that is part of an AA. sure. is it stocks/bonds/cash/gold? ex: 50/40/5/5 most would agree that is part o...
by countmein
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement: Filling the time?
Replies: 96
Views: 10181

Re: Retirement: Filling the time?

wildlife rehabilitation. intense and rewarding (if you like animals).
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

But it is a fact that your capital is allocated to your list of assets, in various amounts.

You can decide not to think about certain assets but if the purpose is risk/return management and these are risky, return-producing assets, it would be counterproductive to do so.
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I always get a kick out of someone who thinks of their house as an investment. Very few people actually do a good job of tracking property taxes, homeowners assn dues, insurance, upkeep costs, mortgage interest etc and including them in the cost of ownership. Thought experiment. What's the expense ...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

In ours, the front-end load was about .13%, the expense ratio is 2% (i.e. maintenance, taxes, and insurance), and the back-end load would be very low, maybe .5% (we'd do a FSBO as we've done before). The value of imputed rent vis a vis nearly identical homes results in a gross yield of 6.9% and a n...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

My opinion: Again, we are confusing Assets (net worth) with Asset Allocation which is used to manage one's risk. So you have a racehorse, so what, what does having a race horse having anything to do with how much VTI I own and what I should do with my VTI if it goes up or goes down? What should I d...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I always get a kick out of someone who thinks of their house as an investment. Very few people actually do a good job of tracking property taxes, homeowners assn dues, insurance, upkeep costs, mortgage interest etc and including them in the cost of ownership. Thought experiment. What's the expense ...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

My life as a whole dictates how much risk I am willing, able, and need to take. As my life changes so does my AA. By having a paid off house, my expenses decrease and therefor I do not need to take on as much risk with my portfolio and therefor I may want to adjust my AA. I am adjusting it because ...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Keep things simple. Keep the asset allocation as a method of managing risk and nothing more. Keep it separate from a discussion on net worth. I think you nailed it. Keeping net worth separate from my asset allocation needlessly complicates things. To keep things simple, I should include equity in m...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Basically, many here are arguing that because the OP doesn't get a check as a result of buying a house, the house should not be part of his AA. But if he did get a check (i.e. a rental property) and then spent that check on renting his own property, then the house he bought would be part of his AA....
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Just because something is expensive and adds to my networth does not mean it should belong in my AA. Someone’s collection of vintage toys for example. Just because something provides an income stream does not mean it belongs in my AA. My job for example provides me income. The purpose of an AA is t...
by countmein
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Just because something is expensive and adds to my networth does not mean it should belong in my AA. Someone’s collection of vintage toys for example. Just because something provides an income stream does not mean it belongs in my AA. My job for example provides me income. The purpose of an AA is t...
by countmein
Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I don't think there's a right answer to this but I'm trying to sort out the following (assume capital gains are a non-issue): Mid forties. My AA and plan has been 50/50 for life. Bonds on the shorter end, in aggregate. Always a renter until very recently-- bought a house using bonds/cash, no mortga...
by countmein
Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

1130Super wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:53 pm
You could certainly argue that your AA could be a little more aggressive Considering you don’t have a mortgage or rent. Perhaps go to 60:40
that's exactly what I did (see upstream). thank you for the validation :wink:
by countmein
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Real estate, like other productive assets, has a market value and a yield. The yield of real estate is shelter, and is consumable. Whomever occupies the property consumes the shelter/yield. Wherever I live, whether I own it or not, I consume shelter. OP, in trying to look at it another way i came u...
by countmein
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

This thread exists because too many people call a mortgage a negative bond. 🤦🏻‍♂️ A house is not a bond. A house you live in is a consumable expense that you live in. OP, I like you plan of splitting the difference. Your expenses went down and so has your risk by owning your own home. Increase your...
by countmein
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

If you don't live in it, and you bought in order to collect rent and make a profit when you sell, then it is part of your asset allocation. If I were to sell my stocks and buy a farm that grows corn, I would count that farm as an asset in my portfolio. My asset, like other productive assets, would ...
by countmein
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I've never understood thinking of a house as an asset. Sure, you can sell it, but then you have to pay to live somewhere else (which also makes it odd to think of it as "renting to yourself," because if you rented out your house to someone else, you'd STILL need a place to live, either by buying or...
by countmein
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Thanks for the input. I've decided to split the difference between holding on to all equities (ie 77/23 AA) vs rebalancing to keep the 50/50 AA by using a 60/40 AA going forward (or 35/40/25 if you include the RE). This means selling down 20% of current equity holdings which feels like a fair risk o...
by countmein
Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

Yikes! I thought one of the major lessons from 07-09 was to NOT treat your house like an investable asset because it is very illiquid and that is never more true than when everyone tries to sell at once. I guess you just need to ask yourself. "Would I be willing to sell my house at a huge loss due ...
by countmein
Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

countmein, << the straightforward logic of it being an investment. >> There is nothing straightforward about this. The house reduces your expenses by imputed rents. But, it is not something that you can rebalance with. So, it cannot be part of your AA. If you can explain to us how you can rebalance...
by countmein
Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I always get a kick out of someone who thinks of their house as an investment. Very few people actually do a good job of tracking property taxes, homeowners assn dues, insurance, upkeep costs, mortgage interest etc and including them in the cost of ownership. I'm guessing that few people who DO tra...
by countmein
Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7864

I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I don't think there's a right answer to this but I'm trying to sort out the following (assume capital gains are a non-issue): Mid forties. My AA and plan has been 50/50 for life. Bonds on the shorter end, in aggregate. Always a renter until very recently-- bought a house using bonds/cash, no mortgag...
by countmein
Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 70
Views: 7834

Re: What is cheap now to buy? - Ideas for the risk averse BH

JoMoney wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:22 pm
Cash is cheap. 30 year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.5%
Unfortunately, housing prices are not :(
-3.5% guaranteed loss is expensive in my book, especially when bonds yield a mere 2%. Doesn't matter that it used to be even worse in the past.
by countmein
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Want to pay cash for home; does my liquidity hold up?
Replies: 14
Views: 1409

Re: Want to pay cash for home; does my liquidity hold up?

In 2007 DW and I were faced with a similar decision. I have never regretted this for an instant, even though we did it at the height of the RE market right before the crash in 2008. At this point our net worth is about double wha we would have done without this move. The RE is worth just a little m...
by countmein
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Want to pay cash for home; does my liquidity hold up?
Replies: 14
Views: 1409

Re: Want to pay cash for home; does my liquidity hold up?

You have the liquidity. The other question is the cost; would you have to sell stock for a capital gain? If so, add the tax on that capital gain as if it were extra points on the mortgage. (This is why I took out a mortgage. I bought a home in 2013, and could have paid cash but would have had a cap...
by countmein
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Want to pay cash for home; does my liquidity hold up?
Replies: 14
Views: 1409

Want to pay cash for home; does my liquidity hold up?

About to buy a home: about 700K purchase price and 50K anticipated renovation work. I am leaning towards skipping the mortgage and paying cash. If I were to do the mortgage it would likely be 3.125% 15YR on 400k loan with 3-4K total fees. Of course I "should" be able to beat the 3% mortgage with inv...
by countmein
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?
Replies: 55
Views: 2424

Re: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?

OP, ETFs (in general) avoid cap gains distributions and MFs do not. The trouble with taxable investing before you have a plan you can really stick with is that you get tax-trapped (via cap gains) into funds you wish you didn't have. I bet it's really common for BHer's to have a handful of zombies in...
by countmein
Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked
Replies: 48
Views: 7131

Re: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked

Cool thread. Permanent Portfolio is where this exercise ends up, right? (if we set aside the vanguard requirement)
by countmein
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 249
Views: 28320

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I don't see anything in the int'l fund's summaries that specifically says developed only. The MSCI World ex-USA indexes track only developed markets: A free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. I thought ...
by countmein
Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 8738

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

I did not intend any unfairness and was just replicating the 'classic' LP referred to in the linked thread from Taylor's post. Thank you for running through a few different versions to add better context. I know that the LP has evolved over time with the bond component (short vs intermediate vs TBM...
by countmein
Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22755

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

I looked at the math for solar panels and think it is a decent retirement investment. Just using average numbers, many people state it takes anywhere from 8-12 years for the system to pay for itself. Let us use 10 years as an average. What that means to me is that the system will provide 1/10th of ...
by countmein
Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 22755

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

I looked at the math for solar panels and think it is a decent retirement investment. Just using average numbers, many people state it takes anywhere from 8-12 years for the system to pay for itself. Let us use 10 years as an average. What that means to me is that the system will provide 1/10th of ...
by countmein
Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

We have this discussion every few months. I don't think a single mind has been changed. But, it is illuminating. My only goal is to keep a random 65-year old from dying at her desk at age 70, because she was new here, and read some silly 2% thread that got her scared and thinking she needed to work...
by countmein
Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures
Replies: 96
Views: 11769

Re: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures

Can you test this with pre-1980 data (real or synthetic)? This model is long treasuries in a period with falling rates. How would it perform with rising interest rates? This. And also: - stress test risk of prolonged inverted yield curve - stress test risk of prolonged positive correlation - compar...
by countmein
Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

No, do not try to take refuge by deflecting your poor inputs into a model by trying to pass it off as Damodaran’s or anybody else’s predictions for the future. As far as I know, Damodaran has made no claims like you have regarding very poor returns couple with high volatility for the NEXT 50 YEARS....
by countmein
Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

No, do not try to take refuge by deflecting your poor inputs into a model by trying to pass it off as Damodaran’s or anybody else’s predictions for the future. As far as I know, Damodaran has made no claims like you have regarding very poor returns couple with high volatility for the NEXT 50 YEARS....
by countmein
Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

TheEleven wrote:
Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:31 pm
"avoiding risky asses is good advice"

Argue all you want but he's not all wrong.
I meant it literally : )
by countmein
Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

countmein is stating that his model is showing less than 2% SWR... Somehow, 50 years of expenses may not last 30 years. It's possible, but something is seriously broken in that world. Nothing will be safe at that point. A random Monte-Carlo system (those are notoriously bad at overstating sequence ...
by countmein
Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

countmein is stating that his model is showing less than 2% SWR... Somehow, 50 years of expenses may not last 30 years. It's possible, but something is seriously broken in that world. Nothing will be safe at that point. A random Monte-Carlo system (those are notoriously bad at overstating sequence ...
by countmein
Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 12597

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

countmein is stating that his model is showing less than 2% SWR... Somehow, 50 years of expenses may not last 30 years. It's possible, but something is seriously broken in that world. Nothing will be safe at that point. A random Monte-Carlo system (those are notoriously bad at overstating sequence ...