Search found 158 matches

by sabtastic
Tue May 19, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold vs Mining Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1257

Re: Gold vs Mining Stocks?

It depends on why you are buying, and what your investment horizon is. If you are looking to replace currency as a source of stable, long term wealth preservation gold bullion is a good bet. IAU/GLD etc do this quite well. Yes, it costs something to hold. Think of it as the world's original negative...
by sabtastic
Sat May 16, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529: Your favorite low cost one?
Replies: 77
Views: 4585

Re: 529: Your favorite low cost one?

Another vote for vanguard nevada. I have it 50/50 in Total Stock Market Portfolio and Total International Stock Index Portfolio. Couldn't be happier.
by sabtastic
Fri May 15, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 47
Views: 3368

Re: The Mighty USD

Been expecting it to tank since 71. It really is amazing how irrational things can be for so long.
by sabtastic
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 934

Re: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds

It looks like it did fairly well until about 2013 when faith in the dollar strengthened again. As you said nisiprius, this is essentially a bet with/against the dollar i.e. currency speculation, which I assume is exactly what OP is trying to do. If I had to do it, I would use something like igov. No...
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Crisis Hedging Ideas?
Replies: 14
Views: 948

Re: Muni Crisis Hedging Ideas?

puts are probably your only "option" no pun intended. The other items are for hedge funds. CDS is basically the best money making option here. Trouble is, do you really think the fed is going to let these munis go belly up?
by sabtastic
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED purchasing corporate bonds? Delegating to BlackRock?
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Re: FED purchasing corporate bonds? Delegating to BlackRock?

This punishes those of us who bought prudently knowing these were junk. This punishes those of us who maintain a healthy cash balance in order to prepare for the unknown. This punishes those of us who depend on the long term financial stability of the country. It is illegal, but that has never stopp...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18195

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Because when the dollar finally busts emerging markets will go to the moon!! :twisted:

In reality, it is exactly the same reason vanguard recommends it. More diversification, costs to do so have dropped significantly recently and the cheaper it is now the more I want to buy it.
by sabtastic
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shortage of Dollars, big asset inflation coming?
Replies: 4
Views: 577

Re: Shortage of Dollars, big asset inflation coming?

Yes. Very hard to say when, but you can tell interest rates want to be much higher and this has been going on for years. Essentially that is what the fed is fighting by buying all of these distressed assets. If demand for cash is very high and no one is willing to loan long term, rates should go up ...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking about moving Investments to Cash, Need Help
Replies: 25
Views: 1926

Re: Thinking about moving Investments to Cash, Need Help

Every central bank in the world is throwing every ounce of fuel they have at this. Once the fire starts, you want to be strapped in for the ride. Also, at your age you really shouldn't be looking at your retirement account more than twice a year. I could understand if this was your down payment or s...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9605

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

So hard to guess on this. Smaller businesses are hit hard. I know more than a few local businesses probably won't make it. Margins were already thin, too much debt, etc. Some of these places couldn't handle even a few days closure, let alone no business for weeks. One could say this is culling the w...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20327

Re: Federal Reserve just cuts rates to zero. Do you think the worst is over?

My guess is in the short run, deflation. In the long run, inflation. Best to be as diversified as you can. Absolutely no one has any idea what is coming.
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5.5 million hits from 91,000 visitors" !!!
Replies: 25
Views: 2910

Re: "5.5 million hits from 91,000 visitors" !!!

Congrats and props to the mods!
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I thought SLV & Gold Mining stocks are a Safety Hedge??
Replies: 23
Views: 1251

Re: I thought SLV & Gold Mining stocks are a Safety Hedge??

Bill Bernstein has written a bit on this topic if you search, and Bogleheads also has a wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Precious_metals_equity Generally precious metal equity gets clobbered during selloffs just like small cap, as was said already. The "safety hedge" that these stocks provide i...
by sabtastic
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 2392

Re: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:13 am
Or lack of faith in Central Banks, although they are the biggest buyers, apparently.
Exactly. What is it that they know that we don't? :twisted:
by sabtastic
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 2392

Re: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?

While I personally view Bitcoin as a store of wealth and a medium of exchange it does not technically meet the defined criteria, at least from an Austrian perspective. To sum up the article, the biggest issue many have with Bitcoin is the direct-use value. Mises’s regression theorem for the origin o...
by sabtastic
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 2392

Re: In the future will Bitcoin end up replacing Gold?

I view it essentialy as a anti-trust asset. If you have faith in central banking and fiat currencies do not invest in this at all. If like me you are skeptical about central banking and fiat currencies invest in it but limit total exposure to 2% of your money with the rest of the exposure being 23%...
by sabtastic
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 4030

Re: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates

Maybe another way to look at it is that treasuries are close to 0% interest BECAUSE they are a safe haven asset. This is a good way to look at it. The interest rates are low because demand is high. German sovereign debt has negative yields because they are one of the few countries in the EU that wi...
by sabtastic
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631341

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

GeraniumLover wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:55 am
When a circuit breaker is triggered, does that mean all trading in all stocks (even bond ETFs) is halted? Will I be able to sell a bond ETF and but an equity ETF?
If it trades on a US stock exchange it counts. Trading curbs are mandated by the SEC.
by sabtastic
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631341

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm wondering why the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ futures are all down 4.8-4.9% and the price chart line is nearly flat. Was a circuit breaker tripped? Yes, they don't let futures go past 5%, and there will be a temporary halt if we go below 13%. I believe they also will close if we go below 20% for ...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving away from VTIAX to 100% VTSAX?
Replies: 24
Views: 2018

Re: Moving away from VTIAX to 100% VTSAX?

It's not just fund performance. Consider exchange rates too. The dollar weakens, VTIAX goes up regardless of underlying performance. How confident are we that the dollar will continue to be propped up? In fact, with the latest federal tax cut, that ship might have already sailed. Or not. None of us...
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's Asset Mix Pie Chart
Replies: 19
Views: 1660

Re: Vanguard's Asset Mix Pie Chart

I have had an identical experience.

I use a spreadsheet anyway as I have a lot of accounts and pursue simplicity where possible.
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8581

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

While it might be tempting to move $$ to chase short term yields like CDs or MM (my local credit union is offering 2.25 for 14 months!) you have to remember that yields may be going lower, and possibly negative. This means the bonds you are holding will be rising in price. Also take a few minutes to...
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor Roth Or Rental Properties
Replies: 23
Views: 1230

Re: Young Investor Roth Or Rental Properties

Roth!! For someone with your discipline, your heirs will thank you
by sabtastic
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the money come from?
Replies: 54
Views: 7238

Re: Where does the money come from?

I guess I don't understand this. Are you saying that the valuation of assets increases but they secretly aren't really? That "the market" doesn't know that it is overvaluing assets because it is unaware of the effects of QE? Wouldn't increased asset "price" without real appreciation in "value" be d...
by sabtastic
Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disturbing experience with Ally Bank
Replies: 92
Views: 12525

Re: Disturbing experience with Ally Bank

This is just ridiculous. Within an online bank, one cannot even go to the branch and be in their face. what I am confused about is the local branch is better mentality here - how is being "in their face" would help you if this is local Chase or something? You will hear, back office is looking , onc...
by sabtastic
Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the money come from?
Replies: 54
Views: 7238

Re: Where does the money come from?

.In order to drive up the price of all these financial and real estate assets, where is the money coming from? The Fed. +1 Assets increase in value because of: 1. Intrinsic increases: i.e. more wealth is produced. Workers are more productive, companies are more efficient, innovations drive addition...
by sabtastic
Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Loss harvesting between gold ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 363

Re: Loss harvesting between gold ETFs

The IRS has not told us their answer. In the case of different S&P 500 index funds they've had over 40 years to let us know and have not done so. How long do we need to wait for them to say it is not OK? I would do what you propose, others would not. I have tax loss harvested between two different ...
by sabtastic
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disturbing experience with Ally Bank
Replies: 92
Views: 12525

Re: Disturbing experience with Ally Bank

I have had this happen multiple times over the years myself, much more so since title III of the patriot act as US bank account holders are subject to seizure any time for any reason and banks are forced to do it. This is why I only use brokerage and local banks for personal demand deposit accounts,...
by sabtastic
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 31659

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

In his most recent podcast episode , David Stein of the Money for the Rest Us quoted someone who basically said what you have: gold's price is largely inversely related to faith in the central banks. I believe that this is the primary driver of gold's short-term volatility. Over the long-term, infl...
by sabtastic
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should Bonds be removed from Asset Allocation
Replies: 49
Views: 3864

Re: Should Bonds be removed from Asset Allocation

Stay the course. Stay the course. Stay the course. The storm is just brewing, so it is OK to be nervous, but if you start changing things now you won't be prepared for the real thing and you will panic. I am curious though, given where things appear to be going, why are you nervous holding bonds, as...
by sabtastic
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 31659

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

We should not be thinking about "returns" for gold. Gold is a way to preserve wealth, not grow wealth over time. Gold just sits there, it is the dollar losing value that gives gold a "return". As I said earlier in the thread, ideally a currency would standardize on gold in order to limit the artific...
by sabtastic
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation killing my Money Market Account?
Replies: 30
Views: 3874

Re: Is Inflation killing my Money Market Account?

It is relative. If you are talking about real estate or equities, inflation is already here. That horse left the barn years ago.

Fear of inflation is not a productive way to decide on asset allocation, and could lead to panic. You need to decide on an investment plan and stick to it.
by sabtastic
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 12382

Re: A note on spending for kids

A lot of this depends heavily on the child. I am in full agreement that parents spend way too much time and money on things that do not matter in the long run - just like investing. Have you all read this: https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/Vanguard-Research-Megatrends-Series-Future-of-Work-O...
by sabtastic
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2965

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

I don't think civilization is going to end or any of that mad max stuff. I just want to hedge/insure against if the global central banks fail to rescue the economy with zero/negative rates and more quantitative easing (conjuring money out of thin air). I think what we have seen with monetary policy...
by sabtastic
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2965

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

I did look briefly at Gold Money. This is just a one stop shop to own gold right? Where they procure, store and insure the physical gold for you? And you can buy and sell at a click of the mouse. Is Bullion Vault similar to this? I think both may also give you a "ATM" like card too where you can sp...
by sabtastic
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2965

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

I also feel the gold redemption feature is a gimmick. The counter party risk is real, and can't be avoided. It depends on what your goals are. If you just want to time the market the ETFs are your best bet as the fees are low, and liquidity is high. It makes even more sense if your broker has commis...
by sabtastic
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused with the markets
Replies: 47
Views: 4837

Re: Confused with the markets

The only sane choice is to evaluate your risk tolerance, pick an asset allocation, diversify heavily, and stay the course. Doing anything else is letting fear and emotion rule your investment strategy which is always a losing hand in the long run. Given that so much power is now concentrated in so f...
by sabtastic
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference between Bank Savings Account vs. Money Market
Replies: 13
Views: 2216

Re: Difference between Bank Savings Account vs. Money Market

wow, great post. I will also add: 1. Money markets are not all created equal, unlike savings accounts. This is especially true with fees. Money markets at one institution can have much higher fees than another. The easiest way to compare MM fund fees is to compare the 7 day SEC yield. This is the da...
by sabtastic
Sat May 25, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The hidden risk of ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 1383

Re: The hidden risk of ETFs

The only real risk that ETFs bring vs mutual funds is the potential to get hit by the spread, and possibly psychological (i.e. ETFs tend to be more frequently traded which could encourage poor behavior). You can solve the first one with limit orders. We don't own ETFs only because we have been inves...
by sabtastic
Sat May 11, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are intermediate term bonds (VWITX) often recommended on these forums over short term bonds (VWSTX)?
Replies: 24
Views: 2746

Re: Why are intermediate term bonds (VWITX) often recommended on these forums over short term bonds (VWSTX)?

That’s not how it works, though. Unless your crystal ball is notably superior to that of every other investor, you should assume that the risks you face are symmetrical. Not only can rates definitely decrease from here, but they can stay low virtually indefinitely. Focus on matching your duration t...
by sabtastic
Fri May 10, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX [Vanguard Prime Money Market] as cash
Replies: 43
Views: 7096

Re: VMMXX as cash

If I was nervous about any Vanguard money market fund, I would be too nervous to invest in anything at all. I don't mean to imply that there is any chance of loss. Just a reminder that redemption gates and liquidity fees are real and they apply to retail funds. If you intend to keep the cash around...
by sabtastic
Thu May 09, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX [Vanguard Prime Money Market] as cash
Replies: 43
Views: 7096

Re: VMMXX as cash

VMMXX is a great fund and extremely safe. I prefer VUSXX as theoretically even safer. One of those “doesn’t matter till it matters” things, but as to money market funds, between “very safe” and “even safer,” I choose the latter—despite the yield differential. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/VGMMR...
by sabtastic
Mon May 06, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks
Replies: 10
Views: 1292

Re: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks

Thanks everyone for your help. If DW decides to relocate both of us will be working downtown. I am using the neighborhood definitions supplied by the housing sites like trulia. Seems they call the area north west of downtown bound by the Mccarran loop "Old Northwest" WhyNotUs: Yes that area has the ...
by sabtastic
Sun May 05, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks
Replies: 10
Views: 1292

Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks

How is it? Anything to watch out for?

DW obviously likes south reno but those prices are way out of line and a long commute to boot.
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 42902

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

wow, loving this thread. While I think something like bitcoin will be a currency of the future I don't think bitcoin will be "the one". While it checks a lot of the boxes (divisibility, independent control from government and banks, store of value) it has serious problems with scalability and theref...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 18446

Re: Dump international?

Just dump everything. The US Bond Index returned 0.1% in 2018. Don't need no stinking bonds. International stocks have trailed US Stocks for a decade. Don't need no stinking International. Much of the gain in the S&P 500 and the US Total Stock Market Index has been in the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Ap...
by sabtastic
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?
Replies: 177
Views: 11923

Re: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?

For those of you that like Reno/Sparks can you point out the good and bad sides of the city? DW keeps getting job offers in this area, and we might take a day trip out there at some point