Search found 128 matches

by sabtastic
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 245
Views: 26484

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

In his most recent podcast episode , David Stein of the Money for the Rest Us quoted someone who basically said what you have: gold's price is largely inversely related to faith in the central banks. I believe that this is the primary driver of gold's short-term volatility. Over the long-term, infl...
by sabtastic
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should Bonds be removed from Asset Allocation
Replies: 49
Views: 3470

Re: Should Bonds be removed from Asset Allocation

Stay the course. Stay the course. Stay the course. The storm is just brewing, so it is OK to be nervous, but if you start changing things now you won't be prepared for the real thing and you will panic. I am curious though, given where things appear to be going, why are you nervous holding bonds, as...
by sabtastic
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 245
Views: 26484

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

We should not be thinking about "returns" for gold. Gold is a way to preserve wealth, not grow wealth over time. Gold just sits there, it is the dollar losing value that gives gold a "return". As I said earlier in the thread, ideally a currency would standardize on gold in order to limit the artific...
by sabtastic
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation killing my Money Market Account?
Replies: 30
Views: 3439

Re: Is Inflation killing my Money Market Account?

It is relative. If you are talking about real estate or equities, inflation is already here. That horse left the barn years ago.

Fear of inflation is not a productive way to decide on asset allocation, and could lead to panic. You need to decide on an investment plan and stick to it.
by sabtastic
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 10796

Re: A note on spending for kids

A lot of this depends heavily on the child. I am in full agreement that parents spend way too much time and money on things that do not matter in the long run - just like investing. Have you all read this: https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/Vanguard-Research-Megatrends-Series-Future-of-Work-O...
by sabtastic
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2342

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

I don't think civilization is going to end or any of that mad max stuff. I just want to hedge/insure against if the global central banks fail to rescue the economy with zero/negative rates and more quantitative easing (conjuring money out of thin air). I think what we have seen with monetary policy...
by sabtastic
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2342

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

I did look briefly at Gold Money. This is just a one stop shop to own gold right? Where they procure, store and insure the physical gold for you? And you can buy and sell at a click of the mouse. Is Bullion Vault similar to this? I think both may also give you a "ATM" like card too where you can sp...
by sabtastic
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: paper gold or physical gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 2342

Re: paper gold or physical gold?

I also feel the gold redemption feature is a gimmick. The counter party risk is real, and can't be avoided. It depends on what your goals are. If you just want to time the market the ETFs are your best bet as the fees are low, and liquidity is high. It makes even more sense if your broker has commis...
by sabtastic
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused with the markets
Replies: 47
Views: 4463

Re: Confused with the markets

The only sane choice is to evaluate your risk tolerance, pick an asset allocation, diversify heavily, and stay the course. Doing anything else is letting fear and emotion rule your investment strategy which is always a losing hand in the long run. Given that so much power is now concentrated in so f...
by sabtastic
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference between Bank Savings Account vs. Money Market
Replies: 13
Views: 1580

Re: Difference between Bank Savings Account vs. Money Market

wow, great post. I will also add: 1. Money markets are not all created equal, unlike savings accounts. This is especially true with fees. Money markets at one institution can have much higher fees than another. The easiest way to compare MM fund fees is to compare the 7 day SEC yield. This is the da...
by sabtastic
Sat May 25, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The hidden risk of ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 1335

Re: The hidden risk of ETFs

The only real risk that ETFs bring vs mutual funds is the potential to get hit by the spread, and possibly psychological (i.e. ETFs tend to be more frequently traded which could encourage poor behavior). You can solve the first one with limit orders. We don't own ETFs only because we have been inves...
by sabtastic
Sat May 11, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are intermediate term bonds (VWITX) often recommended on these forums over short term bonds (VWSTX)?
Replies: 24
Views: 2544

Re: Why are intermediate term bonds (VWITX) often recommended on these forums over short term bonds (VWSTX)?

That’s not how it works, though. Unless your crystal ball is notably superior to that of every other investor, you should assume that the risks you face are symmetrical. Not only can rates definitely decrease from here, but they can stay low virtually indefinitely. Focus on matching your duration t...
by sabtastic
Fri May 10, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX as cash
Replies: 38
Views: 5728

Re: VMMXX as cash

If I was nervous about any Vanguard money market fund, I would be too nervous to invest in anything at all. I don't mean to imply that there is any chance of loss. Just a reminder that redemption gates and liquidity fees are real and they apply to retail funds. If you intend to keep the cash around...
by sabtastic
Thu May 09, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX as cash
Replies: 38
Views: 5728

Re: VMMXX as cash

VMMXX is a great fund and extremely safe. I prefer VUSXX as theoretically even safer. One of those “doesn’t matter till it matters” things, but as to money market funds, between “very safe” and “even safer,” I choose the latter—despite the yield differential. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/VGMMR...
by sabtastic
Mon May 06, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks
Replies: 10
Views: 1193

Re: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks

Thanks everyone for your help. If DW decides to relocate both of us will be working downtown. I am using the neighborhood definitions supplied by the housing sites like trulia. Seems they call the area north west of downtown bound by the Mccarran loop "Old Northwest" WhyNotUs: Yes that area has the ...
by sabtastic
Sun May 05, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks
Replies: 10
Views: 1193

Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks

How is it? Anything to watch out for?

DW obviously likes south reno but those prices are way out of line and a long commute to boot.
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41053

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

wow, loving this thread. While I think something like bitcoin will be a currency of the future I don't think bitcoin will be "the one". While it checks a lot of the boxes (divisibility, independent control from government and banks, store of value) it has serious problems with scalability and theref...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 15861

Re: Dump international?

Just dump everything. The US Bond Index returned 0.1% in 2018. Don't need no stinking bonds. International stocks have trailed US Stocks for a decade. Don't need no stinking International. Much of the gain in the S&P 500 and the US Total Stock Market Index has been in the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Ap...
by sabtastic
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?
Replies: 177
Views: 10656

Re: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?

For those of you that like Reno/Sparks can you point out the good and bad sides of the city? DW keeps getting job offers in this area, and we might take a day trip out there at some point
by sabtastic
Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 7469

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

It is a psychological reason. For example, our equity position was accrued over the last decade, yet it is in just as much danger of a haircut as someone who invested the exact same amount in its entirety yesterday. For whatever reason, the mind regards a 50% drop of the latter as more painful than ...
by sabtastic
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 335
Views: 59319

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

You need to read more books. Stop everything you are doing and read these. When you are done come back and start over with a clean slate. Maybe in the interim there will be a crash :D https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_recommendations_and_reviews The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing The Bogleheads...
by sabtastic
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 145
Views: 18218

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

You can confirm with portfolio visualizer - international was flat from 87 to 94, and from 94 to 2004, whereas from 86 to 2000 the US is a nice, steady upward slope with a few gut wrenching drops along the way. Why we are extrapolating the future based off of 40 year old data I do not understand. Th...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leave out the bond fund of the 3 fund portfolio??
Replies: 40
Views: 3662

Re: Leave out the bond fund of the 3 fund portfolio??

I’ll vote for bonds - just for fun Picture these scenarios and how you would feel in each: 1. Stocks $50k, drops to $25k in value (30 years to retirement) 2. Stocks $100k, drops to $50k in value (25 years to retirement) 3. Stocks $500k, drops to $250k in value (20 years to retirement) 4. Stocks $1 ...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC funds approximation of the total stock market
Replies: 8
Views: 839

Re: UC funds approximation of the total stock market

UC Domestic Equity Index Fund tracks the Russell 3000 Tobacco Free (TF) Index and the UC Domestic Small Cap Equity Fund tracks the Russell 2000 Tobacco Free Index, which is essentially the 2000 smallest (tobacco free!!) companies in the Russell 3000 index. So you are just overweighting the 2000 smal...
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Primer on Paying Taxes With a Credit Card
Replies: 51
Views: 6092

Re: Primer on Paying Taxes With a Credit Card

Just ran into this by accident and wanted to say thank you.
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests
Replies: 85
Views: 17812

Re: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests

So let's walk through the specifics: 1. Structurally, BNDW is an ETF of ETFs, so the ER is higher than the individual pieces. That alone is a strike against it. 2. In addition to sovereign bonds, it holds corporate bonds, foreign and domestic. This makes it less risk-free than holding US Treasuries...
by sabtastic
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Percent of International bonds in portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 551

Re: Percent of International bonds in portfolio

Vanguard has about 30% of fixed income in international bonds for their target retirement funds, so that is a good place to start. You can get a good summary of the logic behind diversifying fixed income in their commentary: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGLBD.pdf the basic idea is if you hedg...
by sabtastic
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: April "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with special guest Allan Roth!
Replies: 18
Views: 2773

Re: April "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with special guest Allan Roth!

Thank you for doing this!

I have had success recommending these to the younger crew. I still lend out my Boglehead's guide but the podcast is much more "hip". Everyone is too busy to read a book these days, but they all spend a lot of time sitting in traffic
by sabtastic
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bay Area housing prices as a function of tech stock appreciation
Replies: 41
Views: 3607

Re: Bay Area housing prices as a function of tech stock appreciation

I like this, mostly because it calls attention to the wealth inequality caused by inflation of the currency. The flaw with charts like this is the volatility of the underlying asset. If they put a few recessions in there you would see what I mean. Two volatile assets compared to each other can lead ...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term treasuries as stock insurance
Replies: 65
Views: 4433

Re: Long term treasuries as stock insurance

Should the Fed lose their heads and jack up interest rates 1%, what do you think would happen to LT treasuries and S&P 500 ? The Fed doesn’t set long-term rates, and the buyers of LT Treasurys are not the same as buyers of T bills. But if the Fed threw the short end out of whack, it could trigger a...
by sabtastic
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2006

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

columbia wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am
Which would fare better under deflation (which is really the subject at hand): cash or TIPS?
Definitely cash. Although, there is absolutely no chance of deflation (at least in dollars).
by sabtastic
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2006

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

The FED showed its cards during the downturn last year, so yes, it seems likely 0% interest rates are in our future. I don't know about negative though, and even if the treasury did offer negative rates, checking and savings accounts wouldn't yield negative as no one would deposit their money. Car l...
by sabtastic
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Better to Donate Time or Money To Charity?
Replies: 37
Views: 1513

Re: Better to Donate Time or Money To Charity?

For those of us with unique skills, it often makes sense to donate time. Many of us on this board have unique skills that took a lifetime to acquire. In my case, donating time to advise clinical research at the local nonprofit is much more rewarding than cutting a check to a charity or lading soup a...
by sabtastic
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overbalancing, interested please explain it to me
Replies: 44
Views: 2102

Re: Overbalancing, interested please explain it to me

I have never seen anything this specific. However, I can tell you the performance of such a system will likely have similar to results to any other market timing system, i.e. you are going to have to make the correct decision twice in order for this to work (when to get in, and when to get out). The...
by sabtastic
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 11590

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

50/50 although if I could do it over today we would likely purchase VTWAX instead.
by sabtastic
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 810
Views: 89445

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Interest rate cuts by the fed. I suppose that could happen. I suspect if it did, stock and bond returns would also likely go down. Bond prices would go up (especially longer term bonds). But yes, the funny thing about this thread is that if stocks went down (which is precisely what he is predicting...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 810
Views: 89445

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

For those interested in Market Timer's past calls: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=60549 Shorted gold at $1,290 in September 2010. Gold peaked almost exactly a year later at nearly $2,000/oz. He exited the trade, closed his brokerage account, and put his money in savings bonds...
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 810
Views: 89445

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

With US valuations being what they are I can't blame you, but I couldn't stand being 100% cash, or even US bonds. The FED showed its cards last year, and they have nowhere left to go. DW and I have changed our equity allocations substantially over the last few years and we are nearly 50% US 50% inte...
by sabtastic
Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman's Best in Class Portfolio vs SP500 Index ?
Replies: 9
Views: 1395

Re: Paul Merriman's Best in Class Portfolio vs SP500 Index ?

Merriman believes strongly in diversification, so I think he is roughly 50/50 on domestic/international. Even more fun, check out Merriman's vs VTWSX.
by sabtastic
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 59176

Re: Schwab vs. CapitalOne vs. Fido Online Banking

Is the billpay function available directly in the brokerage account? Yes, as is check writing/cashing. I have been using it exclusively since december for all monthly bills and ATM transactions. No problems at all. SPRXX is a great place to get a decent rate for cash that would otherwise be inflate...
by sabtastic
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcasts [Financial]
Replies: 49
Views: 4065

Re: Podcasts [Financial]

Bogleheads on Investing (thank you Rick)

The Peter Schiff Show :twisted:
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 59176

Re: Schwab vs. CapitalOne vs. Fido Online Banking

The Fido brokerage account, I was told by their rep, can own a “core” government MMF which has a decent rate, around 2.11%, as its only holding, no CMA needed, and can directly handle unlimited banking transactions. This seems too good to be true. Has anyone been able to set up the above described ...
by sabtastic
Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 262705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

For those that are upset or concerned, is this any different than leveraging real estate? Although it is not exactly the same, if I were to buy a rental property with a traditional loan, that would be roughly 5x leverage, with arguably MORE risk. How would this be any different than OP purchasing a ...
by sabtastic
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 6925

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

I was always told to separate the two: 1. Buying a house as a RENTAL is an investment. 2. Buying a house as a RESIDENCE is for psychological value in owning a home (i.e. a luxury) When people combine the two, it gets confusing. I don't understand why there is a requirement for a primary residence to...
by sabtastic
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 8561

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

Love this. Thank you, Taylor!
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you ever feel overpaid?
Replies: 72
Views: 4652

Re: Do you ever feel overpaid?

Are you HR in disguise? This feels like a trap....
by sabtastic
Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2692

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

> Right now there’s just not enough gold to account for all the value that changes hands in our global economy. Not sure about this, the gold/bitcoin just goes up in value. With a deflationary currency you get a risk free return by burying it in your basement, so banks have to offer you high rates,...
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2692

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

... why should the central banks seek for 2% inflation? Wouldn't 0% inflation be better for everyone, except possibly except from a debt perspective? My supposition is that they seek to target inflation because they're so afraid of deflation. That's the reason they give https://www.federalreserve.g...
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2692

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

...This is why a commodity based currency is so important instead of a fiat based currency. There would be no need for speculation if you were confident your cash would hold value over time. There should be no need to have faith in the polices of a central bank. Not having a commodity based currenc...