Search found 116 matches

by sabtastic
Sat May 11, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are intermediate term bonds (VWITX) often recommended on these forums over short term bonds (VWSTX)?
Replies: 24
Views: 2439

Re: Why are intermediate term bonds (VWITX) often recommended on these forums over short term bonds (VWSTX)?

That’s not how it works, though. Unless your crystal ball is notably superior to that of every other investor, you should assume that the risks you face are symmetrical. Not only can rates definitely decrease from here, but they can stay low virtually indefinitely. Focus on matching your duration t...
by sabtastic
Fri May 10, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX as cash
Replies: 38
Views: 5291

Re: VMMXX as cash

If I was nervous about any Vanguard money market fund, I would be too nervous to invest in anything at all. I don't mean to imply that there is any chance of loss. Just a reminder that redemption gates and liquidity fees are real and they apply to retail funds. If you intend to keep the cash around...
by sabtastic
Thu May 09, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX as cash
Replies: 38
Views: 5291

Re: VMMXX as cash

VMMXX is a great fund and extremely safe. I prefer VUSXX as theoretically even safer. One of those “doesn’t matter till it matters” things, but as to money market funds, between “very safe” and “even safer,” I choose the latter—despite the yield differential. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/VGMMR...
by sabtastic
Mon May 06, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Re: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks

Thanks everyone for your help. If DW decides to relocate both of us will be working downtown. I am using the neighborhood definitions supplied by the housing sites like trulia. Seems they call the area north west of downtown bound by the Mccarran loop "Old Northwest" WhyNotUs: Yes that area has the ...
by sabtastic
Sun May 05, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Anyone lived in Old Northwest Reno or Sparks

How is it? Anything to watch out for?

DW obviously likes south reno but those prices are way out of line and a long commute to boot.
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 321
Views: 38494

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

wow, loving this thread. While I think something like bitcoin will be a currency of the future I don't think bitcoin will be "the one". While it checks a lot of the boxes (divisibility, independent control from government and banks, store of value) it has serious problems with scalability and theref...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 14793

Re: Dump international?

Just dump everything. The US Bond Index returned 0.1% in 2018. Don't need no stinking bonds. International stocks have trailed US Stocks for a decade. Don't need no stinking International. Much of the gain in the S&P 500 and the US Total Stock Market Index has been in the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Ap...
by sabtastic
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?
Replies: 177
Views: 9982

Re: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?

For those of you that like Reno/Sparks can you point out the good and bad sides of the city? DW keeps getting job offers in this area, and we might take a day trip out there at some point
by sabtastic
Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 7059

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

It is a psychological reason. For example, our equity position was accrued over the last decade, yet it is in just as much danger of a haircut as someone who invested the exact same amount in its entirety yesterday. For whatever reason, the mind regards a 50% drop of the latter as more painful than ...
by sabtastic
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 335
Views: 57837

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

You need to read more books. Stop everything you are doing and read these. When you are done come back and start over with a clean slate. Maybe in the interim there will be a crash :D https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_recommendations_and_reviews The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing The Bogleheads...
by sabtastic
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 139
Views: 15824

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

You can confirm with portfolio visualizer - international was flat from 87 to 94, and from 94 to 2004, whereas from 86 to 2000 the US is a nice, steady upward slope with a few gut wrenching drops along the way. Why we are extrapolating the future based off of 40 year old data I do not understand. Th...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leave out the bond fund of the 3 fund portfolio??
Replies: 40
Views: 3528

Re: Leave out the bond fund of the 3 fund portfolio??

I’ll vote for bonds - just for fun Picture these scenarios and how you would feel in each: 1. Stocks $50k, drops to $25k in value (30 years to retirement) 2. Stocks $100k, drops to $50k in value (25 years to retirement) 3. Stocks $500k, drops to $250k in value (20 years to retirement) 4. Stocks $1 ...
by sabtastic
Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC funds approximation of the total stock market
Replies: 8
Views: 737

Re: UC funds approximation of the total stock market

UC Domestic Equity Index Fund tracks the Russell 3000 Tobacco Free (TF) Index and the UC Domestic Small Cap Equity Fund tracks the Russell 2000 Tobacco Free Index, which is essentially the 2000 smallest (tobacco free!!) companies in the Russell 3000 index. So you are just overweighting the 2000 smal...
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Primer on Paying Taxes With a Credit Card
Replies: 51
Views: 5860

Re: Primer on Paying Taxes With a Credit Card

Just ran into this by accident and wanted to say thank you.
by sabtastic
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests
Replies: 85
Views: 17261

Re: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests

So let's walk through the specifics: 1. Structurally, BNDW is an ETF of ETFs, so the ER is higher than the individual pieces. That alone is a strike against it. 2. In addition to sovereign bonds, it holds corporate bonds, foreign and domestic. This makes it less risk-free than holding US Treasuries...
by sabtastic
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Percent of International bonds in portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 446

Re: Percent of International bonds in portfolio

Vanguard has about 30% of fixed income in international bonds for their target retirement funds, so that is a good place to start. You can get a good summary of the logic behind diversifying fixed income in their commentary: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGLBD.pdf the basic idea is if you hedg...
by sabtastic
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: April "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with special guest Allan Roth!
Replies: 18
Views: 2656

Re: April "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with special guest Allan Roth!

Thank you for doing this!

I have had success recommending these to the younger crew. I still lend out my Boglehead's guide but the podcast is much more "hip". Everyone is too busy to read a book these days, but they all spend a lot of time sitting in traffic
by sabtastic
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bay Area housing prices as a function of tech stock appreciation
Replies: 41
Views: 3470

Re: Bay Area housing prices as a function of tech stock appreciation

I like this, mostly because it calls attention to the wealth inequality caused by inflation of the currency. The flaw with charts like this is the volatility of the underlying asset. If they put a few recessions in there you would see what I mean. Two volatile assets compared to each other can lead ...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term treasuries as stock insurance
Replies: 65
Views: 4223

Re: Long term treasuries as stock insurance

Should the Fed lose their heads and jack up interest rates 1%, what do you think would happen to LT treasuries and S&P 500 ? The Fed doesn’t set long-term rates, and the buyers of LT Treasurys are not the same as buyers of T bills. But if the Fed threw the short end out of whack, it could trigger a...
by sabtastic
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 1802

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

columbia wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am
Which would fare better under deflation (which is really the subject at hand): cash or TIPS?
Definitely cash. Although, there is absolutely no chance of deflation (at least in dollars).
by sabtastic
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 1802

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

The FED showed its cards during the downturn last year, so yes, it seems likely 0% interest rates are in our future. I don't know about negative though, and even if the treasury did offer negative rates, checking and savings accounts wouldn't yield negative as no one would deposit their money. Car l...
by sabtastic
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Better to Donate Time or Money To Charity?
Replies: 37
Views: 1345

Re: Better to Donate Time or Money To Charity?

For those of us with unique skills, it often makes sense to donate time. Many of us on this board have unique skills that took a lifetime to acquire. In my case, donating time to advise clinical research at the local nonprofit is much more rewarding than cutting a check to a charity or lading soup a...
by sabtastic
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overbalancing, interested please explain it to me
Replies: 44
Views: 1995

Re: Overbalancing, interested please explain it to me

I have never seen anything this specific. However, I can tell you the performance of such a system will likely have similar to results to any other market timing system, i.e. you are going to have to make the correct decision twice in order for this to work (when to get in, and when to get out). The...
by sabtastic
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 200
Views: 9740

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

50/50 although if I could do it over today we would likely purchase VTWAX instead.
by sabtastic
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71862

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Interest rate cuts by the fed. I suppose that could happen. I suspect if it did, stock and bond returns would also likely go down. Bond prices would go up (especially longer term bonds). But yes, the funny thing about this thread is that if stocks went down (which is precisely what he is predicting...
by sabtastic
Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71862

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

For those interested in Market Timer's past calls: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=60549 Shorted gold at $1,290 in September 2010. Gold peaked almost exactly a year later at nearly $2,000/oz. He exited the trade, closed his brokerage account, and put his money in savings bonds...
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71862

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

With US valuations being what they are I can't blame you, but I couldn't stand being 100% cash, or even US bonds. The FED showed its cards last year, and they have nowhere left to go. DW and I have changed our equity allocations substantially over the last few years and we are nearly 50% US 50% inte...
by sabtastic
Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman's Best in Class Portfolio vs SP500 Index ?
Replies: 9
Views: 1313

Re: Paul Merriman's Best in Class Portfolio vs SP500 Index ?

Merriman believes strongly in diversification, so I think he is roughly 50/50 on domestic/international. Even more fun, check out Merriman's vs VTWSX.
by sabtastic
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 613
Views: 50611

Re: Schwab vs. CapitalOne vs. Fido Online Banking

Is the billpay function available directly in the brokerage account? Yes, as is check writing/cashing. I have been using it exclusively since december for all monthly bills and ATM transactions. No problems at all. SPRXX is a great place to get a decent rate for cash that would otherwise be inflate...
by sabtastic
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcasts [Financial]
Replies: 49
Views: 3573

Re: Podcasts [Financial]

Bogleheads on Investing (thank you Rick)

The Peter Schiff Show :twisted:
by sabtastic
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 613
Views: 50611

Re: Schwab vs. CapitalOne vs. Fido Online Banking

The Fido brokerage account, I was told by their rep, can own a “core” government MMF which has a decent rate, around 2.11%, as its only holding, no CMA needed, and can directly handle unlimited banking transactions. This seems too good to be true. Has anyone been able to set up the above described ...
by sabtastic
Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120363

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

For those that are upset or concerned, is this any different than leveraging real estate? Although it is not exactly the same, if I were to buy a rental property with a traditional loan, that would be roughly 5x leverage, with arguably MORE risk. How would this be any different than OP purchasing a ...
by sabtastic
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership
Replies: 63
Views: 6814

Re: "House Rules," Clements on the finances of homeownership

I was always told to separate the two: 1. Buying a house as a RENTAL is an investment. 2. Buying a house as a RESIDENCE is for psychological value in owning a home (i.e. a luxury) When people combine the two, it gets confusing. I don't understand why there is a requirement for a primary residence to...
by sabtastic
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 29
Views: 3903

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

Love this. Thank you, Taylor!
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you ever feel overpaid?
Replies: 72
Views: 4500

Re: Do you ever feel overpaid?

Are you HR in disguise? This feels like a trap....
by sabtastic
Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2623

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

> Right now there’s just not enough gold to account for all the value that changes hands in our global economy. Not sure about this, the gold/bitcoin just goes up in value. With a deflationary currency you get a risk free return by burying it in your basement, so banks have to offer you high rates,...
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2623

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

... why should the central banks seek for 2% inflation? Wouldn't 0% inflation be better for everyone, except possibly except from a debt perspective? My supposition is that they seek to target inflation because they're so afraid of deflation. That's the reason they give https://www.federalreserve.g...
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2623

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

...This is why a commodity based currency is so important instead of a fiat based currency. There would be no need for speculation if you were confident your cash would hold value over time. There should be no need to have faith in the polices of a central bank. Not having a commodity based currenc...
by sabtastic
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2623

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

So many gold threads lately. The gold trusts are different than most investments and can vary wildly so as always it is a good idea to read your prospectus carefully. Remember it is called a TRUST for a reason. There seems to be two groups of people here, those that are preparing for generalized pol...
by sabtastic
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 181
Views: 20548

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

wow, this is exciting. Two things that have always bothered me about the existing VTWSX: 1. It is more expensive than holding VTIAX and VTSAX (not very much but hard to justify the move if I already own these in a 45/55 proportion) 2. It has fewer stocks than the above combo 3. Its performance over ...
by sabtastic
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a house in the Bay area or give up?
Replies: 94
Views: 7721

Re: Should I buy a house in the Bay area or give up?

We are in a similar situation and the numbers just don't make sense. It is still much cheaper to rent. It has been a very frustrating 5 years or so as prices continue to outpace our savings. Some of the homes around us are appreciating at 10-15k a month which means we would need to be saving roughly...
by sabtastic
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6018

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

I find this post interesting. I bolded part of the second-to-last sentence, which indicates that those who rely solely on stocks/bonds may be engaging in a faith-based action. My view of history and the capability of humans to be terrible, not to mention the possibility of natural catastrophes (e.g...
by sabtastic
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6018

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

The only problem I have with putting a large sum like $50,000 in physical gold is that I would be foregoing the income that $50,000 could produce. Right now, 5-year CDs at Pen Fed are yielding 3.44%. That's $1,720 per year ($143 per month) in interest that I could either spend or let compound. Not ...
by sabtastic
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 237
Views: 20729

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

because I live in the PDRC people's democratic republic of california :mrgreen:
by sabtastic
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 50842

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

Thank you, John

You will be remembered fondly.
by sabtastic
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6018

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

To fully answer the OP, the catastrophe gold buyers are preparing for is the possibility of the federal reserve dropping interest rates to 0 again if the US has another big recession like 2008. This is why gold prices are often a indirect measure of faith in central banks. If the fed does another bi...
by sabtastic
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6018

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

We seem to have a thread on this every week or so. Generally, gold is not a good investment, as it produces no wealth. It will hold value, but over long periods of time, gold has not produced a higher return than a diversified group of stocks or bonds. It is, however, the most preferred commodity fo...
by sabtastic
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Cash Management Account - Investments
Replies: 20
Views: 2327

Re: Fidelity Cash Management Account - Investments

I have (and have contributed to it). Apparently I missed it. Let me read it now. I tried changing my core position, but a popup said that no other options were available for my core position. I thought I had read somewhere on here that people have changed their core positions to Treasuries money ma...
by sabtastic
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?
Replies: 94
Views: 6319

Re: Building Wealth Through Home Equity--Myth or Reality?

yousha wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:06 pm
Purchased my home in 1971 and sold it in 2004 . Purchased it for $27,750 and sold it for $1,665,000.
This is an average of about $4k a month!! My parents house sold about 15 years ago appreciated at about $10k a month over nearly the same time period. Absolutely incredible.
by sabtastic
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International debate again!!
Replies: 16
Views: 1194

Re: International debate again!!

There's no point in rehashing the sterile debate. In my opinion, the reason why it gets so much debate is because based on actual past history using the oldest international (MSCI EAFE, which goes back to 1970), it never would have made much difference either way . As far as I can tell, you are the...