Search found 583 matches

by goblue100
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The more I learn the less I know: general checkup, lots of questions.
Replies: 16
Views: 1806

Re: The more I learn the less I know: general checkup, lots of questions.

What's your one piece of advice you think most important on this crazy journey? Don't worry so much. Live your life, have fun. As long as you are saving a reasonable percentage of your income and not investing in orange juice futures, everything else will take care of itself. And just remember, nob...
by goblue100
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: File a claim for $750 worth of car damage?
Replies: 17
Views: 690

Re: File a claim for $750 worth of car damage?

Filing the claim is likely to cost Adam more than $250 over the next two or three years in increased premiums, so I would never file a claim for such a small amount. Beth is definitely on the hook for $500, IMHO. The remaining $250 is a little more problematic, for me. Since Adam could make the choi...
by goblue100
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Previous 10 year returns predicitions
Replies: 6
Views: 841

Re: Previous 10 year returns predicitions

Perhaps we should use this thread to track long term forecasts? As links sometimes die, a synopsis of the link would be helpful: https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2017/10/27/stock-market-forecast-2018-2043/#73891f077c75 "The past: a 7% real return. The future: 3%" "I’m not predicting a crash, or ...
by goblue100
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 107
Views: 7158

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

mbenoit116 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:04 am
I've been hearing index investors lambasting the Yale model recently.
Can you provide a specific example of this lambasting of which you speak?
mbenoit116 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:04 am
Where is this coming from?
Yes, where is this coming from?
by goblue100
Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?
Replies: 25
Views: 2176

Re: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?

corn18 wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:30 am
New contributions are all going to bonds, so that is keeping my 60/40 at 60/40.
I've been sliding this lever as well. I went 100% bonds for a few months, but now my new contributions are 40% stocks and 60% bonds. I'll see where I'm at September 30th. I check my allocation quarterly.
by goblue100
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15745

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

That which goes down, often goes back up again. Our two previous leaders, Tanelorn and goblue100 were up over 70% on their shorts. Both their short picks, OMNT and WINS respectively, however, have both tripled off their lows. This lead to a shakeup in the rankings in which Tanelorn is back in 1st a...
by goblue100
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Huge mortgage mistake
Replies: 58
Views: 8441

Re: Huge mortgage mistake

I believe if it is a conventional loan, PMI goes away when you have 20% equity: https://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/removing-private-mortgage-insurance.aspx To remove PMI, or private mortgage insurance, you must have at least 20 percent equity in the home. You may ask the lender to cancel PMI...
by goblue100
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4313

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

No I am not like most on this board. I am currently heavily overweight EM and heavily underweight US. I ask myself why I have any US at all sometimes. Even still, the US is the big dog and when it goes down, everything will follow. For that reason I am also overweight reinsurance. I don't think you...
by goblue100
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4313

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I appreciate the enthusiasm so many have for adherence to Buy-n-hold no matter the price, but its important to understand that it requires owning stocks during periods of time when the price paid, significantly exceeds intrinsic value. IMHO, we are currently at one of those times in history. And th...
by goblue100
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority
Replies: 32
Views: 2707

Re: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority

Indexing does not beat 100% of actively managed strategies. About 10% of active strategies will outperform over a 15 year period. But which 10%? They all sound so sophisticated and promising, yet no one has come up with a way to ensure they’re in that 10%. Maybe you can get it to a 30% probably if ...
by goblue100
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help to evaluate Job Offer
Replies: 27
Views: 1843

Re: Help to evaluate Job Offer

If you take the job at the small bank, how long would you plan to stay there? What is the likelihood you will get promoted to VP at the small bank before you decide to move on? I would think if you are planning to be there for >3 years and will be a VP before deciding to move on, the downgrade in po...
by goblue100
Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for a pep talk
Replies: 32
Views: 3331

Re: Looking for a pep talk

If you have $600,000 of assets, and $400,000 in debt your net worth is $200,000. If you use $400,000 of your assets to pay off the debt, your net worth is still $200,000.
by goblue100
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting the stink out of synthetic shirts
Replies: 37
Views: 2509

Re: Getting the stink out of synthetic shirts

Had the exact same issue few days ago. I tried to use Tide Original in the washing machine and it worked like magic. Before that I was using another generic brand. Also tried the white vinegar and baking soda thing but really didn't make much of a difference. Try Tide Original powder if you haven't...
by goblue100
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority
Replies: 32
Views: 2707

Re: HELP!!!!! Need to find documentation of index superiority

Find out what that advisor costs them. 1% AUM adds up quickly. Maybe this will help? https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/how-to-invest/impact-of-costs "Investment costs might not seem like a big deal, but they add up, compounding along with your investment returns. In other words, you don't just...
by goblue100
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: holding bonds-why or why not?
Replies: 19
Views: 2202

Re: holding bonds-why or why not?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:45 pm

I sleep like a baby.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Taylor, you wake up crying every two hours? :D
by goblue100
Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12878

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I set out to devise an approach that was significantly more accurate without being significantly hard to remember. Eventually I settled on the following: Age 40 and under, hold 10% in fixed income Age 45 to 60, hold "age minus 18" in fixed income Age 65 and over, hold 65% in fixed income/list] Obvi...
by goblue100
Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maui Hawaii Trip - How to save money?
Replies: 52
Views: 4758

Re: Maui Hawaii Trip - How to save money?

One thing we enjoyed doing was the drive up Haleakala volcano. Most people go for the sunrise, which means leaving your hotel at 4 or 4:30AM. We didn't want to get up that early, so we went up in the afternoon and watched the sunset. It was pretty spectacular in it's own right and we got to sleep in...
by goblue100
Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to lose $200 in taxable income?
Replies: 96
Views: 6869

Re: Best way to lose $200 in taxable income?

Lose $200 in investments. Then tax loss harvest. I think it might be easier to find ways to lose money than to make money. downside: you'll be out $200. But, you don't care about that right? What's a sure way to lose money? The only sure way I've found is to try to make money. I'm afraid if I try t...
by goblue100
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips for staying active / injury-free into older age
Replies: 130
Views: 9362

Re: Tips for staying active / injury-free into older age

Not sure what kind of stretching you presently do, but I would add some sort of formal stretching and balance program to your routine, e.g., yoga, pilates, tai chi, etc. Remaining flexible is key. Most orthopedists would tell you that to avoid injury you should run less and walk more, but I know ho...
by goblue100
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If History says.... would you change 4% rule ?
Replies: 27
Views: 2733

Re: If History says.... would you change 4% rule ?

I will certainly use the "GB100 common sense variable withdrawal rate", which means if the stock market has a good year, I'll look to spend a little more. If returns are negative, I'll spend less.
by goblue100
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4795

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

Can we at least make a rule the thread title should contain the source of the link? Actually, I think the OP violates the rule of posting naked links with no assessment of OP's opinion of the article, does it not? We also require that you be considerate of our readers and: use meaningful titles on n...
by goblue100
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best BBQ in San Antonio
Replies: 41
Views: 2846

Re: Best BBQ in San Antonio

Please don't insult Rudy's by calling it the McDonald's of barbecue. Dickey's is the McDonald's of barbecue. Rudy's is at least the Whataburger/In-N-Out/Five Guys (whatever your preference) of barbecue. It's still fast food, but at least it's good fast food. I think that's fair. I would agree I low...
by goblue100
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best BBQ in San Antonio
Replies: 41
Views: 2846

Re: Best BBQ in San Antonio

Rudy's is good for "fast food" bbq, but it's a loooongp way behind the ones in Lockhart mentioned above. I agree with this. Rudys is to BBQ what McDonalds is to a hamburger. I see people like them, but I guess I'm not one of them. I'm afraid I don't know of a better choice in San Antonio. Lockhart ...
by goblue100
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??
Replies: 47
Views: 4513

Re: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??

OP, I read it a bit differently than the others. The graph seems to suggest that you hit the high point (probability of success) once you reach roughly 65% equities (35% fixed income). So to me I'd question why you'd want to increase your equities above that level, as it is not meaningfully increas...
by goblue100
Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your age in bonds?
Replies: 57
Views: 6443

Re: Your age in bonds?

For similar reasons, I increased my stock allocation when I bought a home. The home doesn't pay me income directly, but it effectively provides an income stream which is enough to rent a place to live (less the maintenance costs). But I don't follow this. Can you expand a bit on your reasoning here...
by goblue100
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article on attributes of mentally strong people
Replies: 9
Views: 1297

Article on attributes of mentally strong people

I came across this article(13 Things Mentally strong people DON'T do) while searching for something else. I thought it was worth sharing. My favorite: 4. Waste Energy on Things They Can’t Control. Mentally strong people don’t complain (much) about bad traffic, lost luggage, or especially about other...
by goblue100
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest
Replies: 75
Views: 11002

Re: I may have understood why it's so hard to save and invest

I found it very discouraging actually because my effort seems too much for the slight increase of my net worth. It's not very rewarding and incentive to keep on investing. Have you already experienced such a situation ? Any thoughts ? I never looked at it that way. While I have saved chunks here an...
by goblue100
Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Funds - Other Financial Advice Requested
Replies: 23
Views: 1517

Re: Retirement Funds - Other Financial Advice Requested

fruitjacket wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:36 am
Updated the OP with my fund options for my 457b and their expense ratios.
I couldn't get the ticker symbols.
Those expense ratios are not nice. With no match I would do as much as possible outside of the 401k.
by goblue100
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monte Carlo simulator
Replies: 3
Views: 337

Re: Monte Carlo simulator

Does anyone know of a free Monte Carlo simulator where you can enter different portfolio allocations of various index funds or ETFs to see the probability of the portfolio lasting to various ages with varying withdrawal percentages? For what you are describing, I believe this is a better source: ht...
by goblue100
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3568

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

You can eliminate SRR by withdrawing a fixed constant percentage from your portfolio. You just have to be able to live on less money in bad years. I don't think that really eliminates SRR, it just changes the risk from running out of money to not having enough to pay for your needs/wants, maybe for...
by goblue100
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3568

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

You can eliminate SRR by withdrawing a fixed constant percentage from your portfolio. You just have to be able to live on less money in bad years.
by goblue100
Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone not have a Budget?
Replies: 115
Views: 7217

Re: Anyone not have a Budget?

Pay yourself first, then spend the rest as needed or wanted. That has been our budget for the last 30 years.
by goblue100
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5537

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

greg24 wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:48 am
Moderation in all things.
Including moderation.
by goblue100
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Funds - Other Financial Advice Requested
Replies: 23
Views: 1517

Re: Retirement Funds - Other Financial Advice Requested

:? Am I asking something I shouldn't be? Too many questions? Sometimes things are wordy and don't get the attention they deserve. We all prefer simple things, like endlessly discussing the merits of alternative investments, lol. :oops: On question 1, do you have an employer match if you divert mone...
by goblue100
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1380

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

Fear. Either FOMO(Fear of missing out) or the fear of too much of a good thing, depending on whether it is going up or down.
by goblue100
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoroughly cleaning grimy tile
Replies: 19
Views: 2224

Re: Thoroughly cleaning grimy tile

Get a stack of Magic Eraser cleaners from Costco. They usually sell them in bulk. They are.....magic. ^^^This REALLY works! Who knew? I do now (just used them to easily and completely clean a couple of ceramic tiles in the bathroom). It's off to Costco (or Walmart) tomorrow to get a gross of them. ...
by goblue100
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Switching to Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 2201

Re: Thoughts on Switching to Target Retirement Funds

What overall asset mix do you want? With TRF's you sort of get what they give you. Does that match what you want? If it doesn't, then one way to adjust it would be to hold only Total International Total Stock Market in taxable in percentages that help balance your desired AA vs. what you get from th...
by goblue100
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6135

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

This whole thing seems like a mental accounting tool, which is quite confusing to me. My whole portfolio is 65% stocks, and 35% bonds and cash. So for you to call a 60/40 fund "dry powder" just seems like a misuse of the term. It seems like money that is invested. I guess your plan is in the event o...
by goblue100
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target date funds....unsophisticated?
Replies: 64
Views: 4787

Re: Target date funds....unsophisticated?

Sophisticated is just another word for complex. Insurance firms love to wrap things up in expensive wrappers and market them as sophisticated, while they are just so complex you can't understand how bad they are. I'd say your simple target date fund is just the right amount of complexity.
by goblue100
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6135

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Yeah, money in equities is not "dry powder".
by goblue100
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 2765

Re: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks

What do you guys think?"" I think if you could go back to 2002 it would be great. Unfortunately, in 2018 interest rates are ~ 3% and expected to rise, while in 2002 they were something like 7% and destined to fall to near 0. Edit: looks like asif4008, dcabler and I are pretty much singing from the ...
by goblue100
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work slowly.”
Replies: 21
Views: 3965

Re: “We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work slowly.”

Seems like the quote would be better as:
“We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work carefully.”
by goblue100
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 12337

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Doesn't this help explain the lower demand? http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-plan-to-unwind-its-balance-sheet-didnt-skip-a-beat-2018-3 During QE, the Fed acquired Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. During the QE-Unwind, t...
by goblue100
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: STAR Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1237

Re: STAR Funds

Here is a similar recent thread that might be worth reading for the OP:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=251941
by goblue100
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4774

Re: bike helmets

I thought the article was good in getting one to think about risk. Ultimately I don’t think the author was against bike helmets. But he does point out the risk of head injuries in general and the higher risk of crossing the street / walking on the sidewalk / being in a car vs bike riding. People wh...
by goblue100
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baseball simulator games (e.g., Strat-o-Matic, etc)
Replies: 21
Views: 2227

Re: Baseball simulator games (e.g., Strat-o-Matic, etc)

Two buddies and I pooled our money and bought Strat-O-Matic in 1972. We played for several years using the 1971 card set. If I recall correctly, for one price you got the top 20 players per team. For a small upcharge you could get the other 5 players on the main roster. We went cheap. Our favorite t...
by goblue100
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5736

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

PS. Independent thoughts on this issue are also encouraged. I have to agree with Nate79. There are a lot of uninformed, uninterested(which is amazing to me, but true) 401k investors. One that I work with was talking about how little he knew about the different fund options. I offered to help set up...
by goblue100
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your equity is int’l?
Replies: 141
Views: 8176

Re: What % of your equity is int’l?

stevedc wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:48 pm
In doing our background research I’ve seen everything from 0-50% for intl as percentage of equity and just wanted to benchmark the group.
Pretty sure you will get answers ranging from 0 to 50. Not sure how that helps. I'm around 20% of equity.