Search found 666 matches

by goblue100
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3031

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Yes, I guess I need to fess up on "misremembering " history. I guess using 9/11 as a proxy for the unknowable tides of history that can affect generations wasn't the best example. Still, I suspect it deepened that which was already in progress. Sounds like we are starting to expect unexpected inflat...
by goblue100
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3031

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Nice read by Valuethinker. I've always been interested in WW II history, but couldn't have summed up the war as nicely as he did. I thought the reasons we are Bogleheads is we don't have to worry about that which is unknowable? I don't believe anyone here knows what the next disaster is going to be,...
by goblue100
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: What if your risk tolerance is lower than what's best for your portfolio?

Hi, Bogleheads. My AA is 37/63 now, after this slight correction. I lost more than a year's expenses in one week. I just hate losing money, even if it's only paper losses, especially now that I'm semi-retired. (I've lived through bears and recessions and don't panic sell. But my mood goes south.) H...
by goblue100
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?
Replies: 82
Views: 6411

Re: Paying off the mortgage early - Isn't this the opposite of "putting more money into your house"?

My .02. There are two topics that are endlessly debated on this forum, when to take social security and if one should pay off a house. I suspect in most cases the decision is so close that there is no right or wrong answer. If you would like the security of no house payment, pay it off. If you want ...
by goblue100
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross-country trip via Amtrak
Replies: 48
Views: 3733

Re: Cross-country trip via Amtrak

We took the train from Seattle to Portland, Oregon and back and loved it. It seemed both old fashioned and more sophisticated then being herded into an airplane and strapped into a seat with 12 inches of leg room. No TSA, no baggage fees. I would never fly between those two places. Having said that,...
by goblue100
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9471

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

So after this 10 year bull (and 10 years aging for all of us too), what sorts of steps, if any, have some people taken to prepare for a potential bear? 10 years is a substantial portion of both one’s accumulation phase and of one’s investing lifetime. Dave This is the real question, what can / shou...
by goblue100
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jury duty - already booked vacation
Replies: 51
Views: 5293

Re: Jury duty - already booked vacation

When I requested deferral for valid reason the request was always granted without quibble. This has been my experience in the large metropolitan area where I live. I had a conflict once, and they were more than happy to have me come back on a better week. I had the sense they were grateful I didn't...
by goblue100
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kids not interested in money / allowance
Replies: 50
Views: 4794

Re: Kids not interested in money / allowance

Lots of good suggestions in the thread. I will be honest, our story with our daughter is similar to yours. We never had much luck with motivating her with an allowance. Probably mostly our fault, lack of follow through, etc. Long story short, she is a pretty responsible 24 year old now. She is about...
by goblue100
Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio, Investments, Spending Feedback - What would you tweak?
Replies: 9
Views: 591

Re: Portfolio, Investments, Spending Feedback - What would you tweak?

What size portfolio are you expecting to have at 50 to 53? It looks to me like you will want 3 to 4 million to sustain your life style. With you current portfolio at 1.5M it seems like you are on track to get there. It looks to me like the house and remodel debt equal the bonuses you will be getting...
by goblue100
Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance to bonds in 401k (timing)
Replies: 3
Views: 278

Re: Rebalance to bonds in 401k (timing)

I don't know about most people, but I don't sweat 2% difference in my target AA. I check quarterly, and if it is off by a lot I'll adjust. Even when I adjust, I don't worry about getting it perfect, because I know after the next market day. it won't be perfect anymore.
by goblue100
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morse Code Glide Path
Replies: 32
Views: 1716

Re: Morse Code Glide Path

Interesting, I am doing something in a similar fashion, though I don't have a formula. For a $1.5 million portfolio, my max equity balance would be $750K. I check balances quarterly. Anything over $750K goes to bonds. If its under do nothing. Once bond balance gets to $750K allow both to grow equall...
by goblue100
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8266

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck. Best answer in the thread. I don't think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009. Really? I mean you are saying like this thread here ht...
by goblue100
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 95
Views: 8266

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Kenkat wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:44 pm
When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck.
Best answer in the thread. I don't think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009.
by goblue100
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Black Friday is coming.. what's on your list?
Replies: 70
Views: 5873

Re: Black Friday is coming.. what's on your list?

bob60014 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:00 pm
Leftover Turkey sandwiches!
You are so 2000's. :happy
In the 20 teens Black Friday starts before the Turkey is even cooked!
by goblue100
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 229
Views: 20959

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

No problem, hopefully some people will wake up and you will get some other opinions soon. :happy I wonder if the solution might not be to include a "Retroactive" or "Back Dated" row, and lump the backdated payments there? I'm thinking of a case where I'm filing in March, and 2017 has 3 months of bac...
by goblue100
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 229
Views: 20959

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

ObliviousInvestor wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:35 am

Or the table could begin with 2018, and the amount from 2017 could be lumped into the 2018 row.
Hmm, I may change my answer, and say it should just be lumped in the 2018 row. I assume it will be obvious to the user that year included backdated payments?
by goblue100
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6466

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two? Everyone wants the baby but no one wants the labor pains. You can't have o...
by goblue100
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 229
Views: 20959

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

I want to join the others in thanking you for your efforts on this calculator. As to the question, it's a little hard for me to picture the difference between the two displays, but I believe I would prefer to see 2017 in its own row based on the description you gave.
by goblue100
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552535

Re: Stocks tumbling?

Anyone know what could potentially be causing this drop? There does not appear to be any significant recent events that could cause investors to be concerned. Trying to mutter to myself "stay the course stay the course." I guess we just need to be patient and wait to see what happens...Trying to bl...
by goblue100
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A strategy to pay off home at retirement?
Replies: 57
Views: 4180

Re: A strategy to pay off home at retirement?

The OP probably has a lot more than $150k in bonds in his portfolio. Selling off enough of those, which likely have a yield well below 3.85%, to pay off the mortgage is likely mathematically superior. For those opining about this reducing liquidity, keep in mind that eliminating a mortgage reduces ...
by goblue100
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concerns of buying a home...what would you do?
Replies: 23
Views: 2084

Re: Concerns of buying a home...what would you do?

My opinion, don't buy. If you know the market that well then you KNOW there is nothing special about Orlando. It will come down to earth like any other city. Just keep the money on ice and wait for the prices to come down. A year or two. Hmm, I'm far from a real estate expert, but my experience in ...
by goblue100
Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 158
Views: 13368

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

I going to start the RIP movement. Retire In Place. Keep your job, keep your insurance, and take as much time off as possible and travel the world. Who is with me?
by goblue100
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552535

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see the US stocks in freefall thread and the bonds in freefall thread. Where is the everything is in freefall thread? :oops:
by goblue100
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sold Home - 2 days after buyer claims they found an issue with A/C
Replies: 119
Views: 11746

Re: Sold Home - 2 days after buyer claims they found an issue with A/C

I would tell them to go pound sand, so to speak. Nice scam to get a new AC unit. They should have bought a one year home owners warranty if they wanted stuff covered after they moved in.
by goblue100
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need personal investment and estate planning help
Replies: 13
Views: 1003

Re: Need personal investment and estate planning help

I'll say one thing, you take advice well. :happy Changing the thread title and adding details to your holdings based on suggestions from other posters in the thread bodes well for this thread. Another thing that bodes well for your future is your income.
by goblue100
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need personal investment and estate planning help
Replies: 13
Views: 1003

Re: What to do now

You have what sounds like a fairly typical situation for non Bogleheads, but not very typical in the context of other posts on this board. Hopefully more knowledgeable people will come along soon. The first thing to do is to change the title of the thread. "What to do now" is too generic. Change it ...
by goblue100
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97977

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

JL Collins also doesn't hold specific international equities: https://jlcollinsnh.com/2018/09/25/what-we-own-and-why-we-own-it-2018/ Who is JL Collins? https://www.amazon.com/Simple-Path-Wealth-financial-independence/dp/1533667926 “In the dark, bewildering, trap-infested jungle of misinformation an...
by goblue100
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]
Replies: 98
Views: 6704

Re: Why is Home Part of NW

1) I do not count net worth. It is a meaningless number. A home with positive equity can be sold to generate liquid assets. That is very far from meaningless. 2) I only count my investment value aka the portfolio that can feed me when I am retired/FI. A home owned free and clear should reduce one's...
by goblue100
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14754

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

U.S. stocks are nuts. Shiller CAPE now stands at 33.36 and the only time in history it was higher was Feb, 1998 to Mar 2001 which would have been a wild ride. If you had gotten out of stocks in Feb 1998 you could have stayed out for 12 years and gotten back in at the price you sold, meanwhile makin...
by goblue100
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When the $2000 deductible bites you in the rear end!
Replies: 30
Views: 4147

Re: When the $2000 deductible bites you in the rear end!

Don't know what QT means I didn't either, and at first Googling didn't offer any insights. Then I realized that they may have meant a store and figured out that it was probably QuikTrip. We don't have those here, so it wasn't obvious to me. In Cincinnati, it would be a UDF or maybe a Speedway. We s...
by goblue100
Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using precious metals to stay on Efficient Frontier
Replies: 4
Views: 457

Re: Using precious metals to stay on Efficient Frontier

I'm no expert, but its hard for me to imagine 2% of anything being enough to move the needle. If you have a $100 portfolio, and $98 is in stocks and $2 is in gold. Stocks drop 20% and gold goes up 50%. You now have $78.40 in stocks and $3 in gold. Do you feel any better with $81.40 in your portfolio...
by goblue100
Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How and When to Tell a Prospective New Employer about a Needed Disability Accommodation
Replies: 14
Views: 1596

Re: How and When to Tell a Prospective New Employer about a Needed Disability Accommodation

Just buy your own Veridesk. There's certainly a lot of knashing of teeth over a $300 expense. I would certainly be prepared to do this. After everything else is agreed to, I'd say something like "I have a bad back. I have to stand up a good portion of the day. Can you provide a Veridesk, or should ...
by goblue100
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8010

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Here's a picture of the bond "bear" market we've had since mid-2016: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=BIL®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22na...
by goblue100
Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emotional Investor - I'm a mess and need help!
Replies: 83
Views: 6361

Re: Emotional Investor - I'm a mess and need help!

From your OP, it sounds like you want to "beat" something, either the market or other investors. My results improved a ton once I decided that: 1. I'm not a trader scalping eighths and quarter points from small market moves, I'm a long term investor. 2. There is no way to miss market declines. If yo...
by goblue100
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving to Dallas, how to establish residency
Replies: 47
Views: 2966

Re: Moving to Dallas, how to establish residency

123 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:40 am
Trade in your car for a truck and license it in Texas.

Isn't it a law in Texas that you have to have a rifle rack mounted in front of your vehicle rear window?
No, but you have to put up with stupid stereotypical comments from people.
by goblue100
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 283
Views: 243307

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Just saw that this 2011 post is about a 500 point drop in the Dow Jones... In February the Dow plunged 1175, more than double. I am still here, things are looking up (for now) Pretty much the same percentage. 500 points with a 12,000 DJI, and 1175 with a 25,000 DJI. Just a pimple on the the butt of...
by goblue100
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K - Portfolio Plan Picks
Replies: 6
Views: 447

Re: 401K - Portfolio Plan Picks

Sure. Here is a post with some guidelines on how to format the OP in order to help the forum help you.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212
by goblue100
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K - Portfolio Plan Picks
Replies: 6
Views: 447

Re: 401K - Portfolio Plan Picks

You would get more responses if you listed the expense ratio for each fund, but these two are the only ones you need based on the criteria in your OP. Vanguard Inst Tot Intl St Mt Ix Tr Vanguard Instl Tot Stk Mkt Idx Tr The mix is up to you, but anywhere from 20 to 40% international is in the realm ...
by goblue100
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11732

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

What is your need and ability to take risk? I think that is better measure of your asset allocation than an arbitrary rule of thumb. Take a look at the link below, there is a nice table that shows returns of various equity / bond mixes. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Financial_planning#Step_5:_Impl...
by goblue100
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money - alternative viewpoint]
Replies: 45
Views: 4770

Re: [A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money - alternative viewpoint]

I have to say, my own portfolio resembles Earls portfolio more than a 3 fund. With after tax, two 401ks, rollover IRA, Roth IRA and I used the Scott Burns 10 speed portfolio as my initial model before I ever heard about the Boglehead way. Could I simplify? Yes, but I'm staying the course. It takes m...
by goblue100
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another high expense-ratio 401(k), Help!
Replies: 22
Views: 1287

Re: Another high expense-ratio 401(k), Help!

You mention this is a small company. Any chance you have enough influence to get them to change to a new plan if you help them set it up? Or at least add some low ER index funds? I will say that when I started investing in "low load" mutual funds the ER's you listed above were considered normal, an...
by goblue100
Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Break and Reinvest Options Perspectives
Replies: 18
Views: 1357

Re: CD Break and Reinvest Options Perspectives

Good to keep in mind that the penalty is different depending on the term, but it is the original term that determines the EWP. The discussion was about a CD with an original term of five years, so the 5-month (150 day) penalty applies. Kevin :oops: Thanks for pointing that out. My brain was reading...
by goblue100
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Break and Reinvest Options Perspectives
Replies: 18
Views: 1357

Re: CD Break and Reinvest Options Perspectives

If two years remaining, I'd compare to a 2-year Treasury or CD. In a taxable account, a 2-year Treasury is preferable to a 2-year brokered CD at my marginal tax rates of 27% and 8%. Two-year Treasury yield is about 2.7%, which is 3.03% TEY for me. This is quite nice, considering I don't have to ope...
by goblue100
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 2498

Re: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing

If my target date is that far out does it really matter if I got in today (right before a crash) or got in 1-2 years down the road near the bottom? FWIW, I do think the market is going to take a pretty big hit in the next year or 2. That's why I'm hesitant to get in now. People on this board have b...
by goblue100
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toilet Makes A Flushing Sound Occasionally
Replies: 37
Views: 2905

Re: Toilet Makes A Flushing Sound Occasionally

As everyone has stated, the flapper is most likely cause. I did have one toilet that made my scratch my head when I replaced the flapper and it did not fix it. In that case it turned out to be the tank to bowl gasket. It had deteriorated and even with the flapper closed water was getting by it. I wa...
by goblue100
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18921

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

2.4 millions -1.2 million is 1.2 million
1.9 million - 665,000 is 1.235 million

So 35,000 is the reason for all this discussion?
by goblue100
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to make the best decision possible (critical thinking process)?
Replies: 1
Views: 279

Re: How to make the best decision possible (critical thinking process)?

I'm certainly no expert in this area, but here is what I would consider. 1. How much would it cost to remodel my house to get what I want? 2. If I don't want to remodel, can I find a house that meets my criteria in an area I want to live? 3. If I sell my house and buy another, how much would that co...
by goblue100
Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What performance to expect from central AC?
Replies: 35
Views: 2393

Re: What performance to expect from central AC?

It's 20 degrees between intake and output. The intake is not the outside temperature, it's the intake vent inside your house... which should not be too hot (i.e, 110) in the first place if the a/c is working properly. Ok, my misunderstanding. OP, I still suggest you measure the air temp from the ve...
by goblue100
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Successful techniques to helping parents be less risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1228

Re: Successful techniques to helping parents be less risky?

I doubt if you will be able to convince him of anything, but you might try suggesting selling some of the stock to pay of the mortgage. That should help his cash flow. You might try using some of the arguments we see here from people that are not sure of the Boglehead way. "Since the market is at al...
by goblue100
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What performance to expect from central AC?
Replies: 35
Views: 2393

Re: What performance to expect from central AC?

We say the unit has never been able to pull the temperature below 73F even when the outside temperature peaks at 80F. I ask what's going to happen when it's 95? It is very helpful to have some of you confirm that an AC should cool 20F from ambient. That's all I ask of this unit. Thanks, You really ...