Search found 125 matches

by mjb
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.
Replies: 41
Views: 2457

Re: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.

There is also a difference between using cash versus 30 year treasuries. A fair amount of the time, a 90/10 equity/very long treasury would outperform or be the same if rebalanced. But that was also on a special falling rate environment that may not last.
by mjb
Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 25
Views: 1232

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

I'm with the last few posters. It isn't a huge portion of your portfolio. The interest rate is good. One forms due in a year and a half anyway. Fees and spreads will probably cut into any gain. Unless interest rates significantly drop like to near zero and unless there were lreally low rated bonds, ...
by mjb
Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have often wondered how long a person would last in retirement taking dividends and capital gain from the Wellington?
Replies: 18
Views: 3491

Re: I have often wondered how long a person would last in retirement taking dividends and capital gain from the Wellingt

So, if you only took dividends and reinvented the capital gains and budgeted to live on only about 60% of the dividends in the event of a crash, theoretically forever. With capital gains reinvested, the fund should meet or beat inflation. Using dristributed capital gains is basically the same as dra...
by mjb
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is YOUR formula in determining whether you're FI? And what did you do after you reach FI?
Replies: 25
Views: 2719

Re: What is YOUR formula in determining whether you're FI? And what did you do after you reach FI?

My wife and I have tiers of FI Tier 1 is only the higher earning spouse's income is necessary for expenses and savings goals Tier 2 is only the lower earning spouse's income is necessary for expenses and savings goals. Tier 3 is ability for top earning spouse to be half time and lower earning spouse...
by mjb
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 is very top heavy right now
Replies: 134
Views: 11263

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

The reason we hold the index is to preserve value when a company crashes. Usually, when a company goes under, it is due to competition. Holding the market let's you capitalize on the gains of the competitors.
by mjb
Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global PE10 and PS summary: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 73
Views: 9672

Re: Global PE10 and PS summary: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

I would suggest checking out ://www.philosophicaleconomics.com before making any allocation changes. The author has pointed out some issues with PE10 and has also suggested some fixes. The three big issues he identifies is how earnings are reported via GAAP, the shift to stock buybacks, and PE 10 co...
by mjb
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 1953

Re: The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?

Let's think about this like we do our investments Bogleheads style. If you could only invest in one organization, most here would probably pick the U.S. government and its treasuries. Why? Very safe with high likelihood for low to moderate growth. If you could invest in ten organizations? Probably t...
by mjb
Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage payoff
Replies: 55
Views: 4011

Re: Mortgage payoff

If you can refinance, consider that. I got a great rate before interest rates ticket up and then used the money I would have spent on extra payments to buy long duration munis that were paying a higher rate. That was going great, until bond yields collapsed. Nice capital gains, but new buys now yiel...
by mjb
Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this new to engineering job hunting?
Replies: 33
Views: 4262

Re: Is this new to engineering job hunting?

So as a relatively early career engineer that is at my 3rd company in 10 years, I would not call your son's situation typical. Hiring interns outright is very typical and hiring new employees with a 1 year "easy to fire" clause pending their first performance review is also common. For the most part...
by mjb
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?
Replies: 135
Views: 27034

Re: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?

So, it isn't that index funds are better, the actual fact is after fees, ~80% of active funds lag the market. Wellington and Wellesley have very low fees for an active fund. Index funds have very low turnover and a common trait of all funds that out perform is low turnover. This is an indication of ...
by mjb
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SodaStream: a good replacement for Costco Kirkland sparkling water?
Replies: 25
Views: 2774

Re: SodaStream: a good replacement for Costco Kirkland sparkling water?

I like my soda stream. I like that I only have to make the amount of soda that I want. I also like that I. Can control the flavor, flavor intensity, and fizz at will
by mjb
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Preferred Stock Index Fund
Replies: 49
Views: 5632

Re: Preferred Stock Index Fund

Ideally, one that broadly invested in fixed income and equities would include high yield bond, convertible bonds, preferred stock, senior loans, municipal bonds, etc. in a portfolio in proportion to their share of the market. However, taxes and other factors affect the relative weightings. Example: ...
by mjb
Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Munis in Taxable or Bonds in the 401K?
Replies: 41
Views: 2951

Re: Munis in Taxable or Bonds in the 401K?

Something to consider is to start stock heavy in all tax advantaged and liability match in taxable. For the tax advantaged portion, you start 80 to 100% in stocks and do rebalancing to bonds as you age only in tax deferred. In taxable, fill up emergency fund (not likely a problem for the OP), then s...
by mjb
Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turkish Airlines ?
Replies: 49
Views: 4004

Re: Turkish Airlines ?

I haven't used them for a flight, but their lounges are nice and we'll staffed
by mjb
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 14352

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

Considering a lot of people only save later in life, the 50/50 split makes sense. Considering that equities tend to average a 4% premium over the 10 year treasury, if you are 50/50 stocks and tbm, you are looking at a go forward return of 4-5%. To put that in perspective, your principal would need t...
by mjb
Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Constant High Yield Savings
Replies: 6
Views: 1131

Re: Thoughts on Constant High Yield Savings

Why would you invest in this when an arguably less risky municipal cef yields 4 to 5%?
by mjb
Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ideal income bracket target?
Replies: 49
Views: 5044

Re: Ideal income bracket target?

I am dealing with this for my parents. Mu suggestion is to Max out the bracket you are in. For most here they will be in the 12% bracket once they retire but before SS and RMDs. With my parents, we are Roth converting each year from the older parent up to the max of the bracket and will continue thi...
by mjb
Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Threw me a curve [unexpected layoff]
Replies: 36
Views: 5927

Re: Threw me a curve [unexpected layoff]

Pause for a second. This has happened to plenty of my friends and family. As was already said, you are in good financial shape. Don't make any hasty decisions, especially without a plan. Take things one at a time. First, look into unemployment. Then assess living expenses and start looking for a job...
by mjb
Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private Equity is ready for Vanguard type disruption
Replies: 23
Views: 2031

Re: Private Equity is ready for Vanguard type distruption

The original disruption for private equity was publically traded shares.
by mjb
Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds reaching negative
Replies: 36
Views: 4822

Re: US Bonds reaching negative

Ok, just wanted to add some background that gets lost. GDP is based on the number of workers and productivity. A large portion of U.S. growth from the 70s to the 90s was women entering the workforce. That was mostly a one time event. Now on the size of the workforce is set to follow natural populati...
by mjb
Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: eFund: CD Ladder vs High-Yield Savings vs Money Market Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 909

Re: eFund: CD Ladder vs High-Yield Savings vs Money Market Fund

I tier my e fund by liquidity. X amount in a high yield I can get to quickly. X amount in a CD ladder.if rates are better
The remainder in a tax free bond fund
by mjb
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Internet security and vpn
Replies: 35
Views: 3036

Re: Internet security and vpn

My suggestion for security when home a well encrypted wifi router or wired connection is the best bet. When on an untrusted or open network, use a VPN. I use Nordvpn.

I do use a VPN when I travel outside the country to look like I am in the U.S. so I can access my netflix account while on travel.
by mjb
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on P2P Lending
Replies: 37
Views: 2784

Re: Thoughts on P2P Lending

I used lending club for several years. My net annualized return was barely 3% while my average coupon rate was 11% and my expected return should have been 7%. Why the discrepancy you might ask? Defaults and charge offs. Lending club's numbers report notes held to maturity. Many notes are traded onc...
by mjb
Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on P2P Lending
Replies: 37
Views: 2784

Re: Thoughts on P2P Lending

I used lending club for several years. My net annualized return was barely 3% while my average coupon rate was 11% and my expected return should have been 7%. Why the discrepancy you might ask? Defaults and charge offs. Lending club's numbers report notes held to maturity. Many notes are traded once...
by mjb
Sat May 11, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years
Replies: 60
Views: 7795

Re: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years

Bogle has highlighted time and again that Wellington basically follows a large cap value / dividend appreciation index and a log term Corp bond index. And as shown above, this basically plays out. People forget that one advantage "closet index funds" have is they can add stocks and bonds before they...
by mjb
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pushing the frontier of behavioral finance
Replies: 38
Views: 3767

Re: Pushing the frontier of behavioral finance

1) I am a Boglehead because I reviewed the literature, looked at the math myself, and realized Boglehead style indexing is one of two ways to perform well in the stock market with minimal effort (the other being deep value investing which I also run in a separate hybrid portfolio). Additionally, I b...
by mjb
Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3852

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

So we (personal investors) use treasuries as safe short term and long term investments. However, businesses need treasuries for other purposes. Insurance companies use them for liability matching. Banks use them for liquidity and collateral for lending and derivatives. Banks use them for regulatory ...
by mjb
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?
Replies: 40
Views: 4122

Re: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?

The basis of the 6 months roughly comes from the two largest deductibles someone has plus 3 months unemployed for the average middle class family. Since you have a large portfolio in taxable, you could consider keeping just enough to cover your two largest insurance deductibles. Frankly, three month...
by mjb
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much rent can one afford?
Replies: 4
Views: 663

Re: How much rent can one afford?

The rule of 20% gross income tends to be a safe maximum. It gives wiggle room if costs rise or income falls. Of course, lower is better.
by mjb
Sun May 27, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD / Treasury vs Paying off Mortgage - Rates are really close
Replies: 12
Views: 1967

Re: CD / Treasury vs Paying off Mortgage - Rates are really close

Being in California with higher tax rates, you might want to consider California municipal bond funds. Similar yield, tax free, and liquid.
by mjb
Thu May 17, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2993

Re: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund

Remember, the balance isn't stocks and bonds, it is equity and fixed income. Stocks are a form of equity. Bonds, CDs, and MMs are fixed income. Historically, laddered CDs between 2 and 7 years maturity roughly match the return of treasuries of the same maturity. However, an advantage of intermediate...
by mjb
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lending Club Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 4092

Re: Lending Club Investing

I have been using lending club for 5 years. Returns have consistently dwindled and for the past two years I have let my account spend down and should be finished by next year. My return has dropped from 13% the first year to 2.5%. when the robo institutions jumped in, the best loans would get bought...
by mjb
Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PA (or similar state) Auto: Full Tort vs Limited Tort?
Replies: 4
Views: 488

Re: PA (or similar state) Auto: Full Tort vs Limited Tort?

Basically limited tort means you can sue for direct damages. Auto repair/replacement, rental cars, very clear medical bills such as broken bones, possibly lost wages however most likely limited to the direct accident and medical. The exception is if your quality of life is grossly affected such as b...
by mjb
Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Merrill Edge sold my ETFs without my consent, SEC, FINRA, CFPB?
Replies: 89
Views: 10039

Re: Merrill Edge sold my ETFs without my consent, SEC, FINRA, CFPB?

I think we are missing a lot of the story. I know people who are involved in these processes and they only do it if there is a serious reason. It most likely was activity that looked like or was money laundering.
by mjb
Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: # X Gross = Home price?
Replies: 81
Views: 7454

Re: # X Gross = Home price?

Don't look at drive x income. Look at cash flows. My rule (and what I have ways been told) is principal, interest, insurance, taxes, and maintenance shouldn't be more than 25% of your income and preferably under 20%. And if you plan on kids and are in a two earner house, I would evaluate income on l...
by mjb
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs
Replies: 93
Views: 6892

Re: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs

Like others have said, herbs tend to be cheaper to grow at home. This is especially true if you don't buys herbs in bulk as often I rarely need the full sized bunch sold in stores.

I currently do this, however the break even point is about 2 years of steady growth.
by mjb
Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 3333

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

But I do find it interesting that seemingly everything went down last week. Stocks. International stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Where did it all go, cash? A few points. Remember, when we look at all these, we see valuations based on market expectations, not the invested value or the intrinsic value o...
by mjb
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American saving rate
Replies: 28
Views: 5698

Re: American saving rate

The podcast I linked to discusses how, in any nation, a net positive savings rate among the citizenry means that the federal government must run a deficit to make up for the savings. Keynesian nonsense. No, it's just simple accounting. The following accounting identity shows an aggregate relationsh...
by mjb
Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor recently burglarized- Suggestions for home security
Replies: 101
Views: 11578

Re: Neighbor recently burglarized- Suggestions for home security

Here are a few things I do. I have spikey plants under windows. (Deer ate one to the ground this year and I need to find a different one). I have a Simplisafe system. I realize that it doesn't determined a burglar all that much, but it is a deterrent. I also have it because it has pipe burst sensors...
by mjb
Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CDs & Savings as a substitute for bonds or bond funds
Replies: 20
Views: 4669

Re: CDs & Savings as a substitute for bonds or bond funds

It is called "fixed income" for a reason. CD's and bank accounts can usually fetch better yields at equal risk to Treasuries for durations up to 5 years. The wiki has more on this on a few pages. I personally use a mix of high yield bank accounts, CD'S, Muni funds, and taxable bonds depending on int...
by mjb
Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax-exempt bond funds and the new tax brackets
Replies: 1
Views: 736

Re: Tax-exempt bond funds and the new tax brackets

So, theoretically, the income threshold is the major driver. For the past decade or so, the 25% bracket has been the break even, mostly because that is the first bracket where individuals are capable of accumulating larger amounts of savings outside of retirement. As the income thresholds for bracke...
by mjb
Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CD's instead of bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 9197

Re: Using CD's instead of bonds

Two things to consider. Historically, a CD beats a treasury bond of equal maturity up until about the 5 year range. With the current historically low yields, there is not much room for bond appreciation. That being said, yields are not significantly lower than pre-1960s levels for reserved currencie...
by mjb
Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chasing Hot Returns in ‘Smart Beta’ Can Be Dumb- Jason Zweig in WSJ
Replies: 21
Views: 2434

Re: Chasing Hot Returns in ‘Smart Beta’ Can Be Dumb- Jason Zweig in WSJ

This is another point of consideration in the small-large, growth-value debate.
by mjb
Sun Jan 24, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will Value outpeform Growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 7709

Re: When will Value outpeform Growth?

I have looked at the academic papers for value and small cap, looked at the indices, and looked at the funds. The premium seems to have been decreasing ever since it was "discovered". Factor in fees, spreads, and taxes. Once you look at all of that, the premium starts to look like date selection bia...
by mjb
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lending Club - Thoughts?
Replies: 27
Views: 5130

Re: Lending Club - Thoughts?

I've been using lending club since 2011. I was really active until the end of 2012, then the big banks started using automated buys. I couldn't get decent deals and a few of my loans defaulted, dragging down my returns. Then around 2014/2015 Lending Club changed some of their platform rules, changin...
by mjb
Fri Nov 27, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do FDIC insured CDs yield more than treasuries?
Replies: 36
Views: 6032

Re: Why do FDIC insured CDs yield more than treasuries?

As others have stated, this is in part due to the fact that not everyone can buy CD's. From a historic basis, usually 3 year and shorter CD's are a little better than equivalent treasuries. 5 year tends to be break even. Treasuries are far more liquid and don't have early redemption penalties. As ot...
by mjb
Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mango prepaid card - 4.8% (effective) APY
Replies: 557
Views: 367874

Re: Mango prepaid card - 4.8% (effective) APY

5 weeks and waiting. Would like to hear from someone who's actually received a check. Waiting on 4 checks. So Netspend won't have these problems? Sheesh. I'm starting to think these accounts aren't worth it. I'm also not sure if a delay longer than 30 days is permissible for a bank. Please let us k...
by mjb
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's a Bug Out Bag and who uses them?
Replies: 72
Views: 12006

Re: What's a Bug Out Bag and who uses them?

I just keep my camping backpack in a packed state. I live in a low disaster area, but it never hurts to be ready for a week without water or power. I have had several friends and family members in either and/or both of those situations.
by mjb
Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cryptocurrency
Replies: 8
Views: 1662

Re: Cryptocurrency

The rise of crypto currencies signals a feeling by many that the banking and finance industries aren't serving their needs. It doesn't mean that cryptocurrencies are the solution, but they do shed light on a problem. Crypto currencies have a lot of benefits in theory. Low transaction costs (fraction...
by mjb
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whats a good Pistol to buy?
Replies: 112
Views: 16367

Re: Whats a good Pistol to buy?

If there OP is still reading, my advice. Take a class taught by a certified instructor that provides firearms to test. I cannot stress this enough. Your local gun shop should be able to direct you to one. And get one that covers revolvers and semi-autos. Possibly even a shotgun class as others have ...