Search found 1571 matches

by asset_chaos
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 25
Views: 2523

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

As the objective of a treasurer is to source funds as cheaply as possible, with interest rates plunging around the globe it seems to make eminent sense for borrowers to extend maturities if they can. The question for bond index investors/lenders is, if such long term bonds are part of, say, total bo...
by asset_chaos
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?
Replies: 46
Views: 3811

Re: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?

Quick without looking! -> What do think the YTD total return of the US Bond Index fund (VBTLX, FXNAX, AGG, et al.) is? About 10% Which has a higher YTD total return: US Bond Index or Total International Stock Index? Don't know. Which has a higher YTD total return: US Bond Index or US Small-cap valu...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australia - why do you have the savings account you have?
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Re: Australia - why do you have the savings account you have?

If you have a mortgage, the best savings account, by far, is the 100% offset account. That way your savings effectively gets the after tax return of your loan rate.
by asset_chaos
Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 146
Views: 33935

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Interesting development: The stock numbers are from the FTSE Global All-Cap index. This index covers about 98% of world market cap and consists of about 8,000 stocks. It's also the index that Vanguard follows in their Total World Stock Index Fund/ETF (VTWAX/VT). FTSE also now has a Global Total-Cap...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australia - Franking credits
Replies: 3
Views: 302

Re: Australia - Franking credits

Can anyone explain what 'franking credits' means and how it relates to my superannuation? Unless you have a self-managed super fund, you will never see an entry for franking credits on your super statement or have to deal with them at all. Franking credits are buried in the fund's total return. Int...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Advice regarding portoflio [Australia]
Replies: 5
Views: 407

Re: Advice regarding portoflio [Australia]

Brings a question to mind - are there any superfunds with BPAY options also? Isn't BPay from your personal bank account outside super? Does your money get into super from your personal bank account outside super? I thought it generally gets into super from your employer, so I'm not sure how BPay wo...
by asset_chaos
Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this sort of investing "game" have a name?
Replies: 14
Views: 1317

Re: Does this sort of investing "game" have a name?

Reminds me of something that happened about 15 years ago in Australia. In what was generously termed a "cock up", a trading platform that catered to self-managed superannuation funds, misconfigured their system and a small number of funds found they could trade stocks after hours at the closing pric...
by asset_chaos
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Will Smart Beta Be Smart?"
Replies: 28
Views: 1985

Re: "When Will Smart Beta Be Smart?"

Bogleheads: Allan Roth has published an article about "Smart Beta" beating the market. These are quotes: "Five years ago, warning signs were sounding an alarm. I couldn’t go 60 seconds at any financial conference without hearing the terms “smart beta” or “fundamental indexing.”" "The original two f...
by asset_chaos
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal Flagship Representaive Going Away
Replies: 96
Views: 8245

Re: Personal Flagship Representaive Going Away

Must be another change that's being implemented in waves. I've received no email about flagship reps, and there is still a named flagship rep---same one for the past couple years---listed at the bottom right of the initial page after logging in to my account today.
by asset_chaos
Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Complacency
Replies: 77
Views: 6119

Re: Boglehead Complacency

I too have never heard the unit of "handles" for stock market price movement. Perhaps it is like measuring the height of a horse in hands. I don't think I'm complacent. (Those who know me would more likely use the word smug anyway.-) What I have is a portfolio risk potential that I'm ok with in my c...
by asset_chaos
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts
Replies: 631
Views: 59008

Re: Vanguard is Discontinuing their VanguardAdvantage Accounts

Had an email this morning confirming termination of---at least part of---the Advantage account. They framed the note in a strange and weasely way, Confirmation: VanguardAdvantage Billpay® canceled We've received your request to cancel the VanguardAdvantage Billpay service associated with your Vangua...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Market Index vs. S&P Index with small cap
Replies: 7
Views: 866

Re: Total Stock Market Index vs. S&P Index with small cap

I recall that Vanguard's extended market index fund (I don't know the ticker) was created around the same time as total stock index fund and was meant explicitly for long time investors in the SP500 index fund who wanted to switch to total market but didn't want to have to pay big capital gains to s...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The new 1 fund portfolio
Replies: 57
Views: 7776

Re: The new 1 fund portfolio

I have about 20k in cash and about 60k in my brokerage account in which I've picked individual stocks. I want to do 1 fund portfolio as I can simply just add money monthly, currently 23 years of age. The real question is should it be invested in VTSAX or VTWAX. I've come upon the new VTWAX fund, an...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VBLTX/VBLAX 0.50% fee on all purchases of Inv, Adm, Inst, &Inst Plus Shares (does not apply to reinvested dividends)
Replies: 16
Views: 1247

Re: VBLTX/VBLAX 0.50% fee on all purchases of Inv, Adm, Inst, &Inst Plus Shares (does not apply to reinvested dividends)

As Vanguard fund purchase fees go back into the fund, they are Vanguard's way of assigning the costs of buying new securities from new cash invested to those who are investing the new cash. If the purchase fee is new to an existing fund, one implication may be that it has recently gotten much more e...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australia - highest superannuation rate
Replies: 10
Views: 1118

Re: Australia - highest superannuation rate

The federal government and the half dozen universities I'm familiar with give 17% employer super contribution. I suspect the employer contribution to the military, police, and fire defined benefit schemes is effectively even higher. The now closed federal government defined benefit PSS and CSS schem...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK bias in VG LifeStrategy and Retirement funds (UK)
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: UK bias in VG LifeStrategy and Retirement funds (UK)

Going off on a tangent - how come VG have no world (ex US) funds like they do in US? Neither do Fidelity.... are there any? At the moment I put all my equity in VG Global all-cap. I'm not unhappy with the country % allocation, which looking at it near enough matches % of world stock market, but it ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long is too long trying to rebalance with contributions?
Replies: 21
Views: 1768

Re: How long is too long trying to rebalance with contributions?

I have two rebalancing thresholds. The first soft threshold tells me to start redirecting dividends and contributions (or withdrawls, if retired) and to consider selling inside tax deferred accounts. The second hard threshold tells me that the allocation has gotten so far out of my comfort zone that...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK bias in VG LifeStrategy and Retirement funds (UK)
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: UK bias in VG LifeStrategy and Retirement funds (UK)

For the UK investor - looking at the make up of the various VG LifeStrategy and Retirement funds, the equity proportion of these funds is approx 20% to 25% UK. For comparison the VG FTSE global all cap fund has approx 5% UK, which seems more sensible. Also the VG FTSE all World and Developed world ...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 25% SP 500 (or VT) and 75% TIPS Bonds--Not Bond Fund.
Replies: 21
Views: 1829

Re: 25% SP 500 (or VT) and 75% TIPS Bonds--Not Bond Fund.

I'd say that's a perfectly fine portfolio for someone who is very averse to market risk. I would think carefully, however, about whether the portfolio starts large enough in absolute dollar terms so that I don't run out of money if I end up on the right side of the mortality tables. E.g. if I live t...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond question: VBTLX vs VBILX
Replies: 20
Views: 1932

Re: Bond question: VBTLX vs VBILX

If you are looking for a slam dunk argument to invest in one of these funds instead of the other, you won't find it. To first order, they are identical: low cost, investment grade, intermediate term, diversified bond index funds. At second order there are subtle shades of difference between them. If...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic multifactor shifting from lowvol+quality to momentum+size+value
Replies: 6
Views: 651

Re: Dynamic multifactor shifting from lowvol+quality to momentum+size+value

The record of market timing (tactical asset allocation) funds is dismal. A M* study found that not one of the TAA funds they follow had beaten vanguard balanced index [1]. I expect funds market timing factors will lead to similarly dismal results, albeit more difficult to benchmark. [1] “We found t...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic multifactor shifting from lowvol+quality to momentum+size+value
Replies: 6
Views: 651

Re: Dynamic multifactor shifting from lowvol+quality to momentum+size+value

The record of market timing (tactical asset allocation) funds is dismal. A M* study found that not one of the TAA funds they follow had beaten vanguard balanced index [1]. I expect funds market timing factors will lead to similarly dismal results, albeit more difficult to benchmark. [1] “We found th...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is "Total World Bond" (BNDW) weighting determined?
Replies: 8
Views: 1151

Re: How is "Total World Bond" (BNDW) weighting determined?

I occasionally look at the FTSE World and US BIG Bond Indices. BIG for Broad Investment-Grade, which is the same ballpark as the investment grade index total world bond follows. The June 30th BIG fact sheets have US and ex-US investment grade bonds at about 50:50 of the total market value ($41.3 tri...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real-Estate Companies Amass Cheaper—but Riskier—Short-Term Debt: Implications for REIT Index Funds Volatility??
Replies: 3
Views: 266

Re: Real-Estate Companies Amass Cheaper—but Riskier—Short-Term Debt: Implications for REIT Index Funds Volatility??

Real-Estate Companies Amass Cheaper—but Riskier—Short-Term Debt REITs taking on commercial paper could be left unable to refinance if lenders suddenly lose confidence https://www.wsj.com/articles/real-estate-companies-amass-cheaperbut-riskiershort-term-debt-11562678539 More publicly-listed real-est...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?
Replies: 55
Views: 3961

Re: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?

Even Vanguard's low cost ESG fund is noticeably more costly than their total market fund. I suggest every investor would be better off---and their favorite cause better off---by using part of the annual investment cost savings to directly donate to groups that work for whatever outcomes the investor...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 02, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to earn index fund gains through appreciation or dividends?
Replies: 5
Views: 752

Re: Is it better to earn index fund gains through appreciation or dividends?

If there were no tax and you reinvest the dividends, then it wouldn't matter. But you do have tax on the dividends (unless in a tax deferred account), and the portion of the dividends lost to tax is not available to reinvest. In a taxable account you'd prefer the capital gain.
by asset_chaos
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market: Too Concentrated at the Top?
Replies: 19
Views: 1884

Re: U.S. Stock Market: Too Concentrated at the Top?

Not the total US market, but earlier this year the Vanguard growth index fund became sufficiently concentrated that it breached the legal definition of a diversified fund. Vanguard Growth Index Fund Supplement dated April 26, 2019, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated April 26, 2019 Prospe...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone else worried about tech becoming too big/overvalued?
Replies: 54
Views: 4458

Re: Is anyone else worried about tech becoming too big/overvalued?

As sector valuations or market valuations in general are things I cannot control, I think it's a secondary or tertiary thing to worry about. As a portfolio asset allocation that is suitable to my investing horizon, risk comfort level, and preferences is something I can control, I put thought into th...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocation to the 3 Fund strategy for a newbie today
Replies: 3
Views: 404

Re: Allocation to the 3 Fund strategy for a newbie today

Look up the Vanguard target date fund that would be appropriate for you and use the allocation it has today. Or perhaps even better, consider using the target date fund itself.
by asset_chaos
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"
Replies: 209
Views: 10623

Re: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"

factor returns can experience downside shocks far larger than would be expected. Doing worse in bad times. In a nutshell, that's the risk and why there're factor risk premia in the first place. If people don't understand that, then, yes, they've invested in something they don't understand and furth...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 26
Views: 2620

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I doubt I'll be moving from ISCF, but its good to see some competition. I better look back at this post in a few years. If they come in under ISCF on expense ratio? Unlikely I think but ..... it's also American Century who has deep pockets and some catching up to do now that active ETFs are a thing...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian citizen investing in Australian property from the USA
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: Australian citizen investing in Australian property from the USA

I certainly don't disagree with you on the incentives of real estate agents. As I said, I have no direct experience. I have only heard other people say they've used buyers agents to do the local leg work for them and to bid at auction for them. Caveat emptor. I sometimes come off as blunt or overly...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian citizen investing in Australian property from the USA
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: Australian citizen investing in Australian property from the USA

You might google buyer's agents in <state, city where you want to buy>. These are real estate agents that work for the buyer. I have heard (have never had personal experience) that many ex-pat or foreign buyers use them to do the leg work of finding a property in Australia. I disagree with this, an...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which vanguard funds should I have? (Australia)
Replies: 12
Views: 1841

Re: Which vanguard funds should I have? (Australia)

What about currency risk? E.g if you buy VTS and the AUD goes up or down significantly. Wouldn't it be like a purchasing power hedge? A$ goes up significantly. Your VTS balance decreases, but prices you pay for imports also go down: the purchasing power of your capital investment stays the same (an...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT article: "Pension funds raise concern over index manager stewardship"
Replies: 21
Views: 1952

Re: FT article: "Pension funds raise concern over index manager stewardship"

I dare say that Vanguard has enough clients that for any question on the ESG spectrum, especially on the E and S, Vanguard clients will have opinions that span all possible opinions. Best for Vanguard to not even try to become activist on these questions. On the other hand, for governance there are ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which vanguard funds should I have? (Australia)
Replies: 12
Views: 1841

Re: Which vanguard funds should I have? (Australia)

What about currency risk? E.g if you buy VTS and the AUD goes up or down significantly. Wouldn't it be like a purchasing power hedge? A$ goes up significantly. Your VTS balance decreases, but prices you pay for imports also go down: the purchasing power of your capital investment stays the same (an...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian citizen investing in Australian property from the USA
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: Australian citizen investing in Australian property from the USA

You might google buyer's agents in <state, city where you want to buy>. These are real estate agents that work for the buyer. I have heard (have never had personal experience) that many ex-pat or foreign buyers use them to do the leg work of finding a property in Australia. If you're tax resident in...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating VTWAX with my employer's 401k fund selections
Replies: 19
Views: 3023

Re: Approximating VTWAX with my employer's 401k fund selections

Since the ratio can vary over time (was 58% a month ago I believe), what's a good rebalancing strategy to follow? Any will be just as good as another. As noted already, if you set it once to world weighing and never put another penny in, it'll rebalance itself. But, this is a 401k, and you will con...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 69
Views: 6921

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

Vanguard may be client owned, but some of those clients are big institutions. If enough dollars from those big institutions insist that they want to go into private equity, Vanguard is likely to respond. I don't think this will effect a typical investor in any way. And it's hardly the first endeavor...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Defined benefit vs Accumulation superannuation?
Replies: 9
Views: 998

Re: Defined benefit vs Accumulation superannuation?

You have to consider the very different risk profiles of defined benefit versus accumulation, especially when you get to retirement age and try to live off the money. With defined benefit you don't take any market risk, but you do have the risk of the solvancy of the entity promising to pay the pen...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:26 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Defined benefit vs Accumulation superannuation?
Replies: 9
Views: 998

Re: Defined benefit vs Accumulation superannuation?

Which are better? To me it would seem better to go with a index based fund? If defined benefit doesn't take into account investment earnings but only average salary and number of years then wouldnt average returns catch up over longer periods? For e.g firecalc average for 100k over 30 years is arou...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why NO International Bond Index ??
Replies: 37
Views: 4734

Re: Why NO International Bond Index ??

Vanguard evidence on hedged bonds presents a compelling case that for US investors hedged non-US bonds would not have made any difference. They have neither helped nor hurt a US investor. But for the non-US investor the evidence is compelling that adding bonds hedged to their home currency either ha...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I a Boglehead?
Replies: 31
Views: 2737

Re: Am I a Boglehead?

I'd say anyone who signs up to the board and contributes in collegial good faith is a member of the club.
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: High-yield bonds behave like half bonds, half large value stocks
Replies: 2
Views: 525

Re: Rekenthaler: High-yield bonds behave like half bonds, half large value stocks

Are they? Is Vanguard high yield fund vwehx then an anomaly? If I run it through portfolio visualizer, it says vwehx loads heavily on credit and term, loads a bit on market, and loads not at all on size or value; albeit, with a not too high r^2 of 0.77. Link . Try another. M* lists the BlackRock Hig...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PEMEX (Petróleos Mexicanos) Bonds --- investment grade --- nice yield
Replies: 9
Views: 952

Re: PEMEX (Petróleos Mexicanos) Bonds --- investment grade --- nice yield

Getting a higher yield for taking on more risk is trivial. That's why every day there's a spread of yields at the same term from the safest treasuries to the junkiest of junk. I know nothing specific of pemex's yankee bonds, but if the market thought pemex safer, pemex would be able to borrow at a l...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-fund portfolio: Home (Domestic) Bias?
Replies: 5
Views: 704

Re: 3-fund portfolio: Home (Domestic) Bias?

When I compare that to friends in Europe, they often are heavily diversified worldwide. If we take the 3-fund portfolio, it would almost be the other way around: 20-40% US, the rest Intl. to have a much greater spread across worldwide markets. Your friends are either atypical investors, or they hav...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor expectations are pro-cyclical
Replies: 3
Views: 469

Re: Investor expectations are pro-cyclical

In other words, recency bias is real, pervasive, and nothing new.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: "Picking managers on the basis of past performance is a mug’s game."
Replies: 7
Views: 1150

Re: The Economist: "Picking managers on the basis of past performance is a mug’s game."

It's the commonest tale. Who was hailed as a star is revealed to be a comet.
For years, those arguing that UK investors should stick to passive tracking funds have faced the comeback “What about Neil Woodford?” They won’t get that comeback any more.
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retrospective good lessons from market crashes
Replies: 5
Views: 1027

Re: Retrospective good lessons from market crashes

LIke the OP, I too missed the 1987 crash because it happened to be one of the busiest periods of my life. It seems ridiculous now to say, but in a not-always-on-and-connected-world I didn't notice until reviewing the portfolio the following january. "What was that big dip back in october?" I think i...
by asset_chaos
Fri May 31, 2019 1:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Are bonds worthwhile (Australia)
Replies: 4
Views: 669

Re: Are bonds worthwhile (Australia)

What's a high interest savings account pay these days? The ING savings maximizer that I've used in the past says the rate is 2.8%. VAF, the vanguard version of total bond market for Australia, says it has a yield of 3.56% with a duration of 5.4 years. Is 80 odd basis points worth the extra risk? It ...