Search found 1441 matches

by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 45
Views: 4770

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

KJVanguard wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:07 pm
I wonder if Taylor is going to change to advocating the 2-fund portfolio now that the entire world can be had for a most minimal price? :D 33% less funds!
Taylor, of course, will speak for himself, but I suspect his answer will be 'no'.
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer and Vanguard Investor Tickers
Replies: 7
Views: 1726

Re: Portfolio Visualizer and Vanguard Investor Tickers

VBILX is the intermediate term bond index fund. It's around half investment grade corporates, half treasuries and existed prior to 2008. I think I recall seeing that the half corporates, half treasuries is not too far off what Mr Bogle had recommended instead of total bond fund, but I'm not certain ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 45
Views: 4770

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

But happy days were ahead. 50 and 60% drops in stock markets everywhere eliminated that pesky capital gains problem and allowed me to consolidate into total world both much sooner than I was expecting and without paying capital gains tax. Maybe you'll be just as lucky some day.-) Happy days? Capita...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 45
Views: 4770

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

Once this rolls out I'll be very interested to see who switches over from VTSAX/VTIAX despite the small ER and diversification differences. Would be great to have a single self balancing fund in taxable instead of two but I'm too far in the hole with capital gains. I don't think many would---or sho...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds A Bad Buy
Replies: 7
Views: 511

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds A Bad Buy

State and Municipal pension plans have been trying to outperform the markets in an effort to meet their liabilities. I believe this is a governance issue. Politicians don''t want to raise taxes or slash benefits, so they tell pension plan manger, get the 12% a year we had to assume to make the liab...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ever heard of "Floating island" strategy?
Replies: 19
Views: 2465

Re: Ever heard of "Floating island" strategy?

serbeer wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:11 pm
Anyone knows what “floating island” strategy is all about?
The advisor puts all your money into a Lake Titicaca time share https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r9D16YY-TM
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 45
Views: 4770

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

Does anyone know if it will be as well diversified as holding the same components as the stock portions inside a life strategy fund. I think I remember looking at the VT etf and found it was something like a few thousand stocks short. I like the idea of having a single fund for my stock portion I d...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 45
Views: 4770

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

Pleasures delayed are pleasures enhanced---and all that. Still I'm puzzled. The footnotes in the last annual report for total world said that actual expenses for investor shares had been 18 bp instead of the 19 headline rate. If admiral shares will be 10 bp, there must be a lot more small investor s...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage of US Stocks is traded by Pros vs Public?
Replies: 4
Views: 541

Re: What Percentage of US Stocks is traded by Pros vs Public?

Does anyone know what percentage of the US Stock market is traded by Managers/Pros? What percentage of US Stock Market is bought and controlled by regular individuals like me? Those could be entirely separate questions. It could be that 99% of shares are bought and held by regular people (or by the...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 851
Views: 43984

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Ave atque vale, Mr. Bogle. My condolences to his family and loved ones.

I had the privilege to meet him once when he spoke in Melbourne. Brilliant and engaging.
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7385

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

If I found myself with tens of millions or up, what I would seek is high powered tax and estate planning advice. Investment advice not so much---unless it was how to diversify a concentrated stock holding at lowest overall cost. Boglehead type investing of broad diversification at low cost knows no ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wrong about international bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2521

Re: Wrong about international bonds?

When Vanguard first added International bond funds to their Target Retirement many people thought (including me) that it was a bad idea and there really wasn't a good reason to do it. Two things. There was and still is a good reason for Vanguard to include hedged ex-US bonds in these balanced fund:...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the (Bond) Market
Replies: 4
Views: 403

Re: Timing the (Bond) Market

If I were going to time the bond market---and I don't----I'd look at the yield curve. If it was steep enough, I'd move to longer maturities, maybe to where it stopped getting steep enough; if it was flat, I'd stay short. I think Larry Swedroe's book called, something like, The Only Winning Bond Stra...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Short Term Bond Risks
Replies: 16
Views: 1409

Re: Super Short Term Bond Risks

However I am trying to understand the credit risk. Ultra Short Term Bond (VUBFX) seems very different from the regular Short Term Bond (VBISX). VBISX is 65% Treasuries while VUBFX has none. It's 43% Asset-Backed? So VUBFX (Ultra Short Term Bond) might essentially be more risky than VBISX (Short Ter...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2418

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

VGIT: AAA (Treasury) BND: AA (Aggregate index) BIV: A (Intermediate-term index) VCIT: BBB (Corporate index) VWEHX: B ("High-yield," i.e. true junk bonds) I hadn't realized how neatly Vanguard's bond line up let one target a desired average credit quality. And, of course, now that I look, the same g...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Able to direct dividends into a different mutual fund at Vanguard?
Replies: 5
Views: 521

Re: Able to direct dividends into a different mutual fund at Vanguard?

Good point. I hadn't thought of the difference between the old and new platforms. I haven't switched to the brokerage platform for exactly that reason because I use dividend redirection a lot.
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Able to direct dividends into a different mutual fund at Vanguard?
Replies: 5
Views: 521

Re: Able to direct dividends into a different mutual fund at Vanguard?

Yes, you can redirect dividends from Vanguard mutual funds to other Vanguard mutual funds. Log on and go to the tabs at the top of the page, I think under balances and holdings; one of the menu options is account maintenance, or something like that. Under that is a link labeled something like indivi...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2759

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-losers-game-reaffirmed Larry reviews the December SPIVA reports. These S&P Index versus Active reports don’t just compare active to appropriate passive benchmarks, they also look at the persistence of active outperformance when it occurs. A...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gus Sauter: the next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 28
Views: 1891

Re: Gus Sauter: the next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Does he think all this high frequency, dark pool, algorithmic, exotic, etc trading helps or hinders running index funds?

Is he still on the investment committee at Australian superannuation fund Sunsuper? Can he get them to make their default super fund indexed and low cost?
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG advises 15% International Bonds (VTABX)... Why?
Replies: 48
Views: 3442

Re: VG advises 15% International Bonds (VTIAX)... Why?

Do you seriously believe that a reduction in volatility from a standard deviation of 9.6 to 9.5 is going to be important, or even noticeable? While hedged international bonds haven't made a noticeable difference in the past to a US investor---they have made a positive difference to non-US investors...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is pure TLH legal, given the step transaction doctrine?
Replies: 11
Views: 1147

Re: Why is pure TLH legal, given the step transaction doctrine?

If you sell some S&P 500 index fund to realize a loss, then use some money to buy an index fund following the Russell 1000 index, the implicit assumption is that the financial exposure is similar but the IRS doesn't consider these two index funds to be substantially identical holdings within the mea...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I (or should I) get out of my DFA portfoilo
Replies: 7
Views: 592

Re: How should I (or should I) get out of my DFA portfoilo

Redirect dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, to your preferred portfolio instruments.
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds on next trade are 50-50 Bernstein: Against the Gods
Replies: 32
Views: 2828

Re: Odds on next trade are 50-50 Bernstein: Against the Gods

This is the crux of the debate over the random walk hypothesis . If it were true, then Day 300 would be a coin-flip just like all the ones preceding it. If it were false, then Day 300 might not be a coin-flip, possibly giving rise to the momentum factor . I know some finance professors personally, ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds on next trade are 50-50 Bernstein: Against the Gods
Replies: 32
Views: 2828

Re: Odds on next trade are 50-50 Bernstein: Against the Gods

This is the crux of the debate over the random walk hypothesis . If it were true, then Day 300 would be a coin-flip just like all the ones preceding it. If it were false, then Day 300 might not be a coin-flip, possibly giving rise to the momentum factor . I know some finance professors personally, ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax cost ratio and portfolio turnover
Replies: 3
Views: 244

Re: Tax cost ratio and portfolio turnover

Capital gains aren't the only taxes. Dividends are also taxed. Look at the expense ratio. GINDX costs 3.61%. Most/all the dividend income is consumed in fees. Possibly the low tax bite is that no taxable income is distributed to you. That's not a good thing. Bogle overs this in one of his books.
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return YTD for S&P 500, VTIAX and Total Bond Market
Replies: 9
Views: 1767

Re: Total return YTD for S&P 500, VTIAX and Total Bond Market

Make a portfolio at Morningstar with the group of funds. Use the institutional versions (i.e. lowest cost) if you want the closest thing to the costless index. Consult the YTD performance column whenever you want.
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2123

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

Quite a number of years ago now I read an interview with Gus Sauter, long since retired as Vanguard chief investment officer. He said the high frequency trading made it easier for him to run the index funds. Since I know nothing about hft, that was good enough for me. If vanguard continues to think ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA says stick to your plan
Replies: 16
Views: 1894

Re: DFA says stick to your plan

The amusing part of DFA's statement is calling a 5% decline "substantial".
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often does VTWSX, or "world cap" ratio update?
Replies: 12
Views: 708

Re: How often does VTWSX, or "world cap" ratio update?

Eventually when all my accounts are consolidated and if Vanguard starts an admiral version of VTWSX, I'd ideally just invest in that to keep things simple. Then you're in luck. Vanguard has filed with the SEC for Admiral shares of total world (EDGAR filing https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/85...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often does VTWSX, or "world cap" ratio update?
Replies: 12
Views: 708

Re: How often does VTWSX, or "world cap" ratio update?

Total market type funds self-re-balance every moment; only total market type funds/indices do this. Highly simplified example. Suppose the stock market consists of two companies A and B, each with a stock price of $50 and one share outstanding. The total market capitalization is $100 and each compan...
by asset_chaos
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Is Active Alpha Enough To Cover Taxes
Replies: 9
Views: 785

Re: Larry Swedroe: Is Active Alpha Enough To Cover Taxes

Is Your Alpha Big Enough To Cover Its Taxes? Robert H. Jeffrey and Robert D. Arnott The Journal of Portfolio Management Spring 1993, 19 (3) 15-25; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1993.710867 We shall demonstrate here that, for many investors, taxes are clearly the largest source of portfolio manage...
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return
Replies: 52
Views: 6397

Re: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return

How low a risk do you require? Bonds, even with duration and credit risk, are less risky than stocks. Going to Vanguard's list of mutual funds by asset class and showing bond attributes says that several bond funds have yields to maturity of 4% or more, but none of them are short term or treasury on...
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do index funds show lower returns for longer time horizons?
Replies: 8
Views: 1352

Re: Why do index funds show lower returns for longer time horizons?

10 years is too short. Look up the M* plot for Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares VFINX, which is the longest running index fund, and click on maximum length, which goes back to 1976. In fact, here's a link: https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en-US...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why contribute to retirement funds?
Replies: 43
Views: 3234

Re: Why contribute to retirement funds?

So I guess the question is what are the benefits of doing all these retirement accounts vs just keeping all the money liquid in your account and investing yourself in the same index funds you would in the retirement accounts? The earnings are not taxed inside a retirement account. If you need to re...
by asset_chaos
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?
Replies: 12
Views: 1127

Re: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?

international (VEU, VXUS) and emerging markets (VWO) are holding up very nicely in this latest downturn in the market. As i am writing this (12/20/2018) VWO is up .8% on the day... During a big down day. IS the tide suddenly turning making international a safe haven relative to expensive US assets?...
by asset_chaos
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First stab at index investing; thoughts on my portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: First stab at index investing; thoughts on my portfolio

My opinion is that an investment that's less than 10% of the portfolio is not worth bothering with. If it were me I'd round the two 7 percenters up to 10%. You're opposed to international but want a global real estate fund; seems like an odd pairing of thoughts. Total US and ex-US stock index funds ...
by asset_chaos
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the total stock market so random?
Replies: 19
Views: 2845

Re: Why is the total stock market so random?

The US stock market is not random like the flip of a fair coin is random. For over a century stocks beat bonds nearly two-thirds of quarters. It's just that you can't use the past sequence of returns to predict what will happen next quarter. Stock returns have been like flipping a loaded coin. I ca...
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the total stock market so random?
Replies: 19
Views: 2845

Re: Why is the total stock market so random?

The US stock market is not random like the flip of a fair coin is random. For over a century stocks beat bonds nearly two-thirds of quarters. It's just that you can't use the past sequence of returns to predict what will happen next quarter. Stock returns have been like flipping a loaded coin.
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on DFA's overall theory....
Replies: 18
Views: 1459

Re: Question on DFA's overall theory....

The theory is that the extra factor risk comes with extra return. If an investor is agnostic, indifferent, or unexposed to the particular risk of a factor and has a long enough investment horizon, then that investor can harvest the extra factor return over the long term. I think part of the modern a...
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 2408

Re: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?

Providers of factor portfolios have to choose what index or rules to follow to get the factor exposure, including roughly how many holdings. They arrive at markedly different answers: Small-Cap 600 Value has 462 holdings, and 15 year Sharpe ratio 0.52 Vanguard small cap value in index fund has 870, ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 15, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What caused the JUSRX one day 10.5% drop on 12/12/18?
Replies: 7
Views: 697

Re: What caused the JUSRX one day 10.5% drop on 12/12/18?

Because this question comes up repeatedly, a gentle reminder that at the top of this section of the board, there are four "sticky" posts that are always at the top of the index of posts. One of them entitled "[Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]" deals with this eternal question.
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 224
Views: 34213

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I was disappointed that Vanguard came out with their active quant funds (in the US) as US only. I would much rather spread the tracking risk to a global fund and then it doesn't seem as noticeable. Yes, global multi-factor would be nice. asset_chaos: Jack Bogle, our mentor, does not agree with you....
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20317

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

There was a thread with this same question last month, https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=263520 . Stock markets must be declining. I'll partly repeat the recitation of my experience from the other thread ... The financial crisis of 2008 was not normal times. Stock losses were deep...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 224
Views: 34213

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

sunnywindy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:27 pm
I was disappointed that Vanguard came out with their active quant funds (in the US) as US only. I would much rather spread the tracking risk to a global fund and then it doesn't seem as noticeable.
Yes, global multi-factor would be nice.
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4834

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

In one of the interviews with JL Collins on Youtube he makes an argument against the need to explicitly include international funds or stocks in your portfolio, since broad-based index funds include big "U.S." companies with significant international business. I don't know who that is but many peop...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard TIPS FUND
Replies: 4
Views: 576

Re: Vanguard TIPS FUND

Ahhh...shows my ignorance for sure. Thanks for setting me straight. Any thoughts on the effectiveness of the moves? While the tips fund is mildly active, it benchmarks to a tips index. Those reports usually have pictures and numbers showing the fund performance versus the index over a last 10 years...
by asset_chaos
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU investor long term portfolio feedback
Replies: 33
Views: 2016

Re: Young EU investor long term portfolio feedback

To tilt to these stock factors, I think you need a high degree of conviction of the evidence of factor premiums, the ability to take the extra risk (the extra return is not free), and a high degree of conviction that the premiums will both persist into the future and manifest over your investing ti...
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts about defined outcome ETFs?
Replies: 11
Views: 758

Re: Any thoughts about defined outcome ETFs?

... as I am within 18-24 months from retirement, I'm getting mighty nervous about the bear, so looking for ways to minimize exposure to adverse events. I believe this kind of "collar" arrangement is useful for highly specific situations where someone wants to limit possible losses but is also const...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU investor long term portfolio feedback
Replies: 33
Views: 2016

Re: Young EU investor long term portfolio feedback

I'm a 28 yo Swedish investor saving for the long run (retirement etc.). My portfolio: Good job starting early on saving, investing, and learning. Fund: 100% MSCI World index (60% USA 40% EAFE) AA: 100/0 I only have one fund. Is that all right? I try to keep it simple. Some questions: One fund is fi...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Bond returns are currently negative. Why should I buy bonds now?]
Replies: 19
Views: 2571

Re: [Bond returns are currently negative. Why should I buy bonds now?]

I think you may need to start your thinking at a different point. The two most basic investment classes are bonds and stocks. By buying bonds you loan money to government, government agencies, large corporations, and other large institutions, which repay the loan with interest within a specified tim...