Search found 146 matches

by JimmyJammy
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS
Replies: 50
Views: 8484

Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Stats from that iMarketSignals Death Cross report linked above. Market performance prior to a Death Cross (DC): For 32 DC events, the S&P500 lost value over a 3-month period to the date of the DC, almost a 100% probability. The historic probability for the S&P500 to be lower after 3 months is only 4...
by JimmyJammy
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closest equivalent to my Tax Exempt Muni Bond funds - for Tax Harvesting
Replies: 1
Views: 181

Re: Closest equivalent to my Tax Exempt Muni Bond funds - for Tax Harvesting

Maybe I should consider a Treasury fund since the gains aren't taxed on my state taxes (NY) and the yield is pretty good with less risk than munis?
by JimmyJammy
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closest equivalent to my Tax Exempt Muni Bond funds - for Tax Harvesting
Replies: 1
Views: 181

Closest equivalent to my Tax Exempt Muni Bond funds - for Tax Harvesting

The two bond funds I hold in my taxable account are underwater. New York Long Term Tax Exempt VYNTX And Intermediate Term Tax Exempt VWITX To offset realized gains I've had this year, I think I should sell them for 30 days. During this period, I guess the responsible thing to do is to buy something ...
by JimmyJammy
Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83574

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

If I had a crystal ball to tell me what the future holds for health care and health insurance costs in this country, I could potentially retire now. In the meantime, I continue to work. America is warming up to Medicare for All. Health Care needs and costs are definitely the biggest question mark i...
by JimmyJammy
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6838

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

Doesn't Warren Buffet advise putting 90% in stocks and 10% in Short-Term Treasuries?

So, why not just put fixed in come in Short-Term Treasuries?
by JimmyJammy
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2410

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

Speaking of Value funds, I see that Vanguard International Value (VTRIX) has outperformed Vanguard Emerging (VEMAX/VWO), including on the maximum timeframe (going back to 1996).
by JimmyJammy
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2410

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

I’ve also started using EM Value instead of EM Core/Index.
So, you're investing in something like DFEVX? (DFA Emerging Value)

I'm tempted to do this as well.
by JimmyJammy
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2410

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

This demonstrates that those focusing solely on expense ratios are often missing the bigger picture.
Indeed, low cost (often an obsession of the Bogleheads) is not the only reason to choose a particular index fund.
by JimmyJammy
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3999

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

I'm 80 stocks/20 bonds.

This article suggests 100% stocks:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/13/your ... of-it.html
by JimmyJammy
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1532

Re: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

Ok, thanks all. This helps clarify the risk involved.
by JimmyJammy
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?
Replies: 16
Views: 1532

How likely is it for a corporate bond rated BAA3/BBB to fail?

I was looking at a new issue corporate bond. From Ford - a Credit Note. It matures in 2023 - not too far away. And its expected yield is 4.5% I like the yield... But the Moody rating is BAA3/BBB and the Moody outlook is negative. So, how risky would this be to participate? What percentage of these n...
by JimmyJammy
Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Treasuries vs Munis in taxable
Replies: 23
Views: 4061

Re: US Treasuries vs Munis in taxable

For an investor in the 22% or 24% brackets, it is much closer. Most investors in those brackets would be better off holding all their bonds in tax-deferred accounts, but if that is not possible (limited room, or a 401(k) with a low-cost stock fund and high-cost bond funds), holding Total Bond Marke...
by JimmyJammy
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good biotech funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1831

Re: Good biotech funds

PRHSX is the best fund I own. And it's been that way for 14+ years.
by JimmyJammy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1M Question
Replies: 38
Views: 5218

Re: $1M Question

Not even buying Bitcoin a year ago (and selling at peak) would have done that for you. But maybe 5 years ago.
by JimmyJammy
Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 847

Re: Bond Funds

And you don't actually *lose* any money unless you sell the investment.
by JimmyJammy
Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 118
Views: 18266

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Many in this thread are assuming retiring is a good thing. But, if you want to live as long as possible, that may not be the case. "Researchers at Oregon State University warned that retiring early could be a risk factor for an early death. They found healthy adults who retired one year past 65 had ...
by JimmyJammy
Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active v. passive during corrections
Replies: 21
Views: 2476

Re: Active v. passive during corrections

I'm active - as in not selling many of my holds, but using SPY puts and trading SDS to make some money from the sell-offs.
by JimmyJammy
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 8553

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

I'll say this - as volatility comes back into the market, it becomes a much better environment for day trading. So I expect the rest of 2018 will be much better for day trading than 2017.

Not saying you should do it.
by JimmyJammy
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25195

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

I wonder why Bitcoin held up so well today. It's still around $8000. I expected to see that it had gone down to $5K
by JimmyJammy
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8612
Views: 1679521

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Aren't these drops and bouts of volatility useful for determining your asset allocation? I mean, what determines your stock:bond ratio? Isn't it about how much risk you want to tolerate? It seems this recent dip has been a good way to test people's risk tolerance. Or are people determining their rat...
by JimmyJammy
Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 213
Views: 40588

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Well, Total Stock has certainly trounced Total international over the last 10 year period. So, I guess most people with high international allocations are expecting things to change?
by JimmyJammy
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody Knows Nothing - A Chart
Replies: 26
Views: 4716

Re: Nobody Knows Nothing - A Chart

Looking at the quilt, I'm surprised by how many times REITS have been in the top 3 asset classes.
by JimmyJammy
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 65391

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

My lesson was to pay attention. I started seeing the trouble in early 2008. And I got out of many of my positions. The trouble was deciding when to get back in. I only dipped my toes in, in March 2009. But was pretty tentative over the next couple of years. These days I'm fully invested, but I haven...
by JimmyJammy
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1605

Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

I saw this article: http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/16/investing/bonds-market-stocks-inflation/index.html Some scary quotes: - A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. - Bill Gross, manager of t...
by JimmyJammy
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 30165

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

I'm 41 and 90/10. Unfortunately, I have not been sleeping well at night lately as I've been seeing and hearing signs of stock market euphoria all around me. Everyone at work is crazy about Bitcoin. Friends and family who haven't been investing much in the stock market for the last ten years are aski...
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with T. Rowe Price funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2456

Re: What to do with T. Rowe Price funds

By the way, TD Ameritrade offers most of the T Rowe Price funds with NO transaction fees. I have them in my 401(k) there.
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: planning for 2018
Replies: 2
Views: 516

Re: planning for 2018

Someone on here posted Vanguard's outlook for the next decade. It suggested that a higher international allocation than 15% would be prudent. Also, Goldman Sacks released their outlook for 2018. They suggest giving heavier weight to emerging markets. So far, I'm going 20% International Developed and...
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with T. Rowe Price funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2456

Re: What to do with T. Rowe Price funds

I love T. Rowe Price funds.

I have 4, and they've outperformed their indexes to a significant degree over the past decade.
by JimmyJammy
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Tax bill going to force First In First Out or not?
Replies: 5
Views: 939

Is the Tax bill going to force First In First Out or not?

If the tax bill goes ahead with this FIFO provision, that's going to be a capital gains tax headache for many (though not the buy and holders). Does anyone know which way it's going to go? I think the House version of the bill did not have the provision, right? http://www.investmentnews.com/article/...
by JimmyJammy
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just not getting it [Stock Picking versus TSM]
Replies: 99
Views: 16433

Re: Just not getting it

This is an important topic. Great discussion. I suffer from a mild addiction to individual stocks and I want to break it because it takes up too much of my time. 25% of my portfolio is in individual names. But, if you're going to bet on individuals, I recommend keeping track of your performance with...
by JimmyJammy
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?
Replies: 64
Views: 7449

Re: Any of you trade just a little as a hobby?

Starting near the recession lows, I developed a semi-addiction to stock trading. It was not a terrible time to do so, since you could get a big win by throwing a dart at a board of stocks. My biggest problem was getting freaked out by my wins. When stock would double or quadruple, I'd sell it, but t...
by JimmyJammy
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of New York Long Term Tax Exempt (Munis) ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1151

Re: Should I get out of New York Long Term Tax Exempt (Munis) ?

Ok, thanks. I'll look into that Limited Term tax Exempt .
by JimmyJammy
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of New York Long Term Tax Exempt (Munis) ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1151

Should I get out of New York Long Term Tax Exempt (Munis) ?

In my taxable account, my bonds are mostly held in Vanguard's Intermediate Term Tax Exempt (National munis) and Vanguard's New York Long Term Tax Exempt (NY munis). http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VNYTX/quote.html Should I get out of the New York Tax Exempt Long Term? With interest rate risk a...
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's International Growth / Value / Explorer funds
Replies: 4
Views: 1146

Vanguard's International Growth / Value / Explorer funds

What do you think of Vanguard's International Growth, Value, and Explorer funds?

Growth: VWIGX

Value: VTRIX

Explorer: VINEX

Have you considered juicing your portfolio beyond Total International with one or more of these funds?
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 4405

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Thanks for that info.

Maybe I should add CRED to my bond world. I simply have AGG to cover all bonds. And a big chunk in municipal bonds.
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 4405

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Question: What are "US Credit Bonds" versus "Us Bonds" ?
by JimmyJammy
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 4405

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

The first chart you posted asserts that non-US equities will not only have higher 10 year return expectations than US equities, but the volatility will be lower.

So, perhaps it's time to give international equities a greater allocation. I have only 15% international. I've been meaning to increase.
by JimmyJammy
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcasts for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 7558

Re: Podcasts for Bogleheads?

I like THE DISCIPLINED INVESTOR podcast.

http://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/podcast-summary/
by JimmyJammy
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to municipal bonds around 1980?
Replies: 10
Views: 2347

Re: What happened to municipal bonds around 1980?

I'm glad you asked this question. 90% of my bonds in my taxable account are Intermediate National munis and Long Term NYC munis. I've been feeling a little over-exposed there.
But at least my 401k has a normal bond fund (AGG) to help balance things out.
by JimmyJammy
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing a 401k provider
Replies: 10
Views: 1510

Re: Choosing a 401k provider

I've had a great experience at TD Ameritrade. I love the number of options available. I recently moved there from T Rowe Price (which is also very good) in order to have access to cheaper bond funds.
by JimmyJammy
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan
Replies: 80
Views: 10757

Re: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan

For me, and for a lot of people, the biggest unknown factor is health care costs. What diseases will I get? How much will treatment cost? Such costs could eat into your nest egg in a big way. (And this is why ALL Americans need health care to help mitigate this risk) So, I think it's important to in...
by JimmyJammy
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 21777

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

GE was the top performing stock in my ROTH IRA until this year.

There's no tax advantage to selling it.

But, I wonder if I should just move on anyway. A ship that big takes awhile to turn around.
by JimmyJammy
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3180

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

By coincidence, Morningstar just put out an article about Vanguard's Total International fund: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=825361 I like Morningstar's screeners. I just put in the following search criteria: Brokerage: TD Ameritrade Retail Fund Category: Foreign Large Blend...
by JimmyJammy
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3180

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

So is Morningstar just a useless company making money on people's ignorance, in the opinion of the Bogleheads?
by JimmyJammy
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3180

International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

I've been using mutual fund screeners on Morningstar and reading about ETFS there as well. I haven't been impressed with Vanguard's basic International index funds (VEA, VEU) and neither has Morningstar. Sure they're cheap. But, the performance and quality of management of some mutual funds seem ver...
by JimmyJammy
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 18982

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

Most of my "cash" is in the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - A SEC yield of 1.1% isn't terrible right? Someone in this thread mentioned the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund - I think that's yielding 1.24%. So I guess that's a better option for me without much extra risk? The problem with CDs is t...
by JimmyJammy
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 18982

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

Are Vanguard's brokered CDs worth checking out?

And, if they're not competitive, then why do they even bother selling them?
by JimmyJammy
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 18982

What Percentage CASH are you?

I'm curious what percentage of assets people hold in cash? Also, if you didn't haven it in cash, where would you put it? Personally, I'm 12% Cash right now. Maybe this is dumb, especially with the dollar falling. Feel free to let me know. But, I do like the feeling of having some "dry powder" especi...
by JimmyJammy
Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 5698

Re: Alternatives to the Vanguard Total International Fund?

Thanks for the recs. Wow - sounds like you have a larger international exposure than most.

Yes, if you don't mind, I'd like to know about some passive (ETF) options that are interesting Vanguard alternatives.