Search found 43 matches

by paul merriman
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 136
Views: 9447

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Hi Rick, Thanks for the opportunity to share the investment strategies that I believe will help investors improve their investment returns. i hope to get some tough questions from the Bogleheads. I am open to new ideas. If not, I wouldn't not have listened to Chris Pedersen, one of the smartest inve...
by paul merriman
Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman -SCV- 1930-2019 Evidence - Patience Leads to Better Returns
Replies: 85
Views: 5860

Re: Paul Merriman -SCV- 1930-2019 Evidence - Patience Leads to Better Returns

I want to thank all of you who took the time to comment on the article regarding 9 decades of returns. There is a lot of concern about the future of small cap value. I think it's recent underperformance has put its future performance in question. Rick Ferri and I discussed this in the podcast we rec...
by paul merriman
Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 15357

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

I think the following comment may help move this debate toward a close. In the article we list the 4 great asset classes. In fact, large and small cap growth are both very important asset classes. The question becomes how much you should have in your portfolio. My recommendation of using large and s...
by paul merriman
Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 15357

Re: Paul Merriman article

Most of what you all said is right, I generally write/talk about combining large and small cap blend (which, depending how you differentiate growth from value, is mostly growth) with large and small cap value . In an attempt to simplify the article (always trying to limit word count at Marketwatch) ...
by paul merriman
Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Best-in-Class ETF recommendations for Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio (March 2019)
Replies: 55
Views: 8711

Re: New Best-in-Class ETF recommendations for Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio (March 2019)

"I really enjoy Paul Merriman and his work. He has to many variations of portfolios with multiple frequent changes that makes it hard to follow his plan." I'm sorry to get that feedback but I suspect you are right---too many recommended portfolios. For those who are just getting started I am hoping ...
by paul merriman
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Best-in-Class ETF recommendations for Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio (March 2019)
Replies: 55
Views: 8711

Re: New Best-in-Class ETF recommendations for Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio (March 2019)

As several of the responses noted, our goal is not to beat the market but to build a diversified portfolio of asset classes that all have a long history of success. If we simply wanted to beat the market, based on the past, we would have all our investments in value asset classes. Instead our portfo...
by paul merriman
Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Max drawdown data for different AA
Replies: 9
Views: 998

Re: Max drawdown data for different AA

The expected drawdowns will vary with different combinations of asset classes. If you wish to compare the maximum drawdowns on combinations of S&P 500 and bonds, worldwide equity combinations with bonds, and all value equity portfolios with bonds check out https://paulmerriman.com/fine-tuning-tables...
by paul merriman
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 10376

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

2 Funds for Life was developed for the first time investor. I think most first time investors should put their money into target date funds for the rest of their life. A small percentage should probably add another asset class or two, with the hope that value and small are asset classes that really ...
by paul merriman
Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 10376

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Hi Paul, what is the rationale in your Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio for splitting between small blend & value, rather than 100% value? At 75 I don't want to put all my assets in stocks as my risk tolerance doesn't allow it. So, I'm 50/50 stocks and bonds. While I'm okay with an value equity port...
by paul merriman
Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 10376

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

The reason I include small cap blend with small cap value is to have some growth in the portfolio. It's the same reason I have bonds, along with stocks in the portfolio. I have to be sensitive to the fact that I don't know anything about those who are reading and possibly following my lead. There is...
by paul merriman
Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 10376

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Hi Garland, At 75 I still hold a traditional Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio (50/50 stocks and bonds, with half the equities in small cap blend and small cap value) but for more conservative investors a more traditional balanced fund is probably more comfortable. What we are trying to do is develop ...
by paul merriman
Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 140
Views: 20223

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

JustinR post What's a good book or reading about tilting to factors, especially scv (also reit and em)? I think the most readable author on the topic is Larry Swedroe. He has written many internet articles on the subject but his best book is, "Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way S...
by paul merriman
Tue May 29, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3564

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

I spend a lot of my time helping college students learn about the life changing financial decisions. I sponsor a class at Western Washington University (Personal Investing 216) that is built to help non-finance majors make decisions that I think almost every Boglehead would condone. They learn about...
by paul merriman
Mon May 28, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3564

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

One of the most interesting aspects of being an investment advisor is how different people see the investment process. I remember one spouse who believed nothing but a bank account was of value. She felt any money in the stock market could not be included in their list of investments. Her goal was t...
by paul merriman
Sun May 27, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread
Replies: 22
Views: 3564

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing Discussion Thread Report this post Quote Unread post by Jags4186 » Tue May 22, 2018 8:00 pm Paul Merriman is extremely wealthy. You can remain extremely wealthy even when making suboptimal choices. He apparently has made out quite well with his market timing system...
by paul merriman
Sun May 27, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 32800

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

For my friends who are investing money for their newborn grandchildren, I have recommended they use small cap value. For my own Roth IRA, that will not be used in my lifetime, I am not quite so aggressive but make it an all equity, all value portfolio. The following is my all value asset allocation:...
by paul merriman
Sun May 27, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 32800

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I have tried to make it clear that the title, "Ultimate Buy and Hold" is simply the best I can find. I'm sure anybody who has taken the risk of advising others (for money or not) is recommending the best they know. I started using that title over 20 years ago so it shouldn't come as a surprise that ...
by paul merriman
Tue May 01, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman
Replies: 37
Views: 8709

Re: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman

I know few Bogleheads are fans of timing. I believe investors who can stay the course with a buy and hold strategy have no reason to consider market timing. I think those who believe in buy and hold will find lots of evidence that timing is a waste of time, as timing will produce long periods of res...
by paul merriman
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman
Replies: 37
Views: 8709

Re: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman

I do appreciate all the kind comments, and for those who disagree with my beliefs, it would be fun to have a debate sometime. Since I don't recommend investors use timing, I have no problem with those who don't believe in timing. For those who think large cap blend (S&P and Total Market Index) is be...
by paul merriman
Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 140
Views: 20223

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

I will weigh in more later but my quick comment is I am a huge fan of Total Market Index as a relatively small part of my portfolio. I use S&P 500, instead of the total market as the rest of the portfolio is comprised of large value (U.S. and Intl.), small blend (U.S. and intl.), small value (U.S. a...
by paul merriman
Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 23886

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

I have no idea what returns stocks or bonds will produce in the future. I am committed to only investing in asset classes I think will give me a commensurate premium for the amount of risk. While I expect small cap value will produce a good premium for its risk, I don't think at 73 I should have all...
by paul merriman
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: which hedge fund does Paul Merriman use?
Replies: 13
Views: 2568

Re: which hedge fund does Paul Merriman use?

I have 10% of my holdings in the Leveraged Global Opportunity Fund, a fund I help start in 1995. In 2000 I had the good luck of hiring Dennis Tilley, a real rocket scientist with a passion for market timing, to run the hedge fund. He has run the fund since 2000. The fund has made almost 14% a year, ...
by paul merriman
Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold
Replies: 34
Views: 6683

Re: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold

I agree that not automatically reinvesting dividends is a challenge. It is on my list of 10 things I don't like about Motif. What I suggest is you put your annual IRA contribution early in the year. When both the dividends and the new cash are in the account you do your annual rebalance. I realize t...
by paul merriman
Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold
Replies: 34
Views: 6683

Re: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold

I like Motif for some investors. I don't think there is any reason for large Vanguard accounts to move as Vanguard will give investors access to the ETFs I recommend and large accounts can add those to the portfolio without a commission. I think the most impactful portfolio for do it yourself invest...
by paul merriman
Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold
Replies: 34
Views: 6683

Re: Motif Investing Implementation of Ultimate Buy and Hold

I have done a couple of podcasts and an article on using Motif services. My hope is to twist the arms of some of my friends in the business to convince them to "do the right thing" by offering their own Motifs. For those who are not aware, anybody can create a Motif and offer it to the public. While...
by paul merriman
Sat Sep 10, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 235
Views: 37528

Re: "Factor investing"

I don't consider "factor" investing an attempt to beat the market. I consider the addition of other than large cap blend (S&P or Total Stock Market) to simply be different markets. I'm not worried about beating any market but I am attempting to earn the best return I can within my risk tolerance. If...
by paul merriman
Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 13787

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

It has been far too civil on the boards lately, so I thought it'd be fun to stir it up a little bit! I imagine many investors did not become fans of small value tilting until about 2003. I suspect that on an actual asset weighted basis, a lot of money has been lost/foregone by chasing the elusive s...
by paul merriman
Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets
Replies: 29
Views: 5275

Re: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets

My takeaway from all this is that a 10-fund portfolio (Paul Merriman) isn't necessarily better than a 1, 2 or 3-fund portfolio. We should not overlook the fact that more funds are more complicated and usually more costly to buy and maintain (rebalancing, record-keeping, tax-reporting, etc.) in addi...
by paul merriman
Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets
Replies: 29
Views: 5275

Re: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets

Sound Investing Advice Vanguard Balanced Index Fund VBINX Invest consistently :happy "One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee I am a fan of balanced funds for investors who want to maintain a...
by paul merriman
Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets
Replies: 29
Views: 5275

Re: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets

I like Paul, even though he is sometimes like a broken record. His recommendations are based upon long-term data for asset classes (as he calls them). He readily admits that and makes no apologies for it. He loves small-cap value because that asset class has the best historical performance. He advo...
by paul merriman
Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets
Replies: 29
Views: 5275

Re: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets

Paul Merriman. Thanks for the link. I used to listen to his radio program many moons ago. I like his Vanguard Emergency Fund Portfolio and Vanguard Monthly Income Portfolio recommendations (note, I don't know if he updated those portfolios). Thank you. I will be updating my Vanguard, Fidelity,and T...
by paul merriman
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $3k to $50m strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 9634

Re: $3k to $50m strategy

GoldenFinch wrote: edge wrote: What an outrageously irresponsible claim. That's what I thought when I saw the article (I think it was on Market Watch?). It looks like a supermarket tabloid title. Ugh. My hope was to get investors to consider something that could have a life changing impact on a new...
by paul merriman
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $3k to $50m strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 9634

Re: $3k to $50m strategy

There is no magic here. Paul likes to use historical data to project future performance. If small-cap value had a CAGR of 16%, then after 65 years starting with $3k you would have $3k*(1.16)^65 = $46 million. I used the 12 % CRR instead of the 16% as I think that's not likely now that everyone knows...
by paul merriman
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $3k to $50m strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 9634

Re: $3k to $50m strategy

Before I thought of setting up an account to fund a Roth IRA, I had invested $10,000 for each of my grandchildren. I put the money into a Crummy Trust that keeps them from getting any of the proceeds until they are 65. At that point all but one of them will get 5% a year until death. At death the pr...
by paul merriman
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $3k to $50m strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 9634

Re: $3k to $50m strategy

I have very good news. I sold my firm in 2012 and started a financial education foundation. Part of the foundation work is supporting a University course at Western Washington University. Personal Investing 216 is a 4 credit course that is built for non-finance majors. The students come out of the c...
by paul merriman
Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 12302

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

I have learned a lot from Paul Merriman, however, I sometimes wish he didn't sound so spooky all the time What do you mean "sounds so spooky?" I try my best to take the emotion out of the investing process. My kids may think I'm spooky but I don't understand why you think I'm spooky. I don't take o...
by paul merriman
Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 12302

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

For the 15 years ending yesterday the DFA small cap value compounded at 11.6 vs. 4.2 with the S&P 500. And the DFA small cap value was in the top 24% in its asset class. I don't expect the small cap value to continue to produce that much of a premium but I do expect it to produce some premium. If it...
by paul merriman
Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 12302

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

The academics make no attempt to predict the amount of the small cap or value premium. Nor do they make an attempt to predict the nominal returns of large, small, value or growth asset classes. All they predict is that small will do better than large, value will do better than growth and stocks will...
by paul merriman
Wed Dec 31, 2014 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 12302

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

One of my listeners was kind enough to send a link to your discussion. I enjoyed the comments and would only add a couple of thoughts. 1. I agree that an 11 fund portfolio is difficult for many to manage. My personal investments are even more work as half my portfolio is buy and hold (DFA and Vangua...
by paul merriman
Fri Oct 25, 2013 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman
Replies: 53
Views: 6975

Re: Paul Merriman

I suspect this entry will not be read by many readers but still thought it would be fun to respond to your comments. I am retired. I did the PBS special without a penny of compensation. My hope is PBS got a lot of contributions from my show. Last year I started a financial education foundation that ...
by paul merriman
Fri Oct 25, 2013 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flight Path Approach to Age-Based Asset Allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 9916

Re: The Flight Path Approach to Age-Based Asset Allocation

I think the flight path that will work is dependent on what we learned early in our investment career. I am sponsoring a college course at Western Washington University entitled Personal Investing. These students come to the first class without understanding anything about investing, 401(k)s, stocks...
by paul merriman
Fri Oct 25, 2013 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman's advice for adding bonds over time
Replies: 65
Views: 8095

Re: Merriman's advice for adding bonds over time

I have enjoyed the comments on my recommendations to adding bonds over time. The strategy mentioned in the article that is the focus of this thread is one I prefer for savvy investors, but I understand the challenges of less risky investors. This strategy is one of 10 that is recommended in my free ...