Search found 258 matches

by ASUGrad
Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How stocks perform in recessions
Replies: 13
Views: 1927

Re: How stocks perform in recessions

Not really surprising at all. Stocks drop when it becomes apparent we will have a recession, but we don't actually have proof it happened until 3-6 months after the fact. So by the time we are actually in a recession stocks have already dropped, had a chance to realize that the recession "wasn't" the end of the world, and hence started recovering.

The quarter before a recession on the other hand would probably have horrible returns.
by ASUGrad
Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA payroll deductions not being applied to my HSA
Replies: 7
Views: 1080

Re: HSA payroll deductions not being applied to my HSA

That is VERY strange. If it was going to the wrong account it likely would have 'always' been going to the wrong account. Since it was initially going to the right one I doubt that is the problem.

Did you happen to change the investments allocation? I know with my custodian they actually get different accounts for investments VS cash. Also when contributions go in it takes a few days longer for it to credit when going to investments rather than cash.
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 179
Views: 26141

Re: AliBaba

I won't be buying. 1. One of my favorite Buffett quotes, "It's almost a mathematical impossibility to imagine that, out of the thousands of things for sale on a given day, the most attractively priced is the one being sold by a knowledgeable seller (company insiders) to a less-knowledgeable buyer (investors)." Its Buffett, but it also 'feels' like something Bogle would say. 2. Shares in this company aren't what I actually consider stock. No voting rights, and very limited legal protection if they go bankrupt or disappear with the money. There is a reason Hong Kong refused to be the middle man. 3. To quote Flyingaway, "Companies in China can make their numbers look better. I have very deep China background and I do not believe...
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 27663

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

A large majority of active managers outperforming the index, after fees, would be pretty decisive, but I don't much expect to see that. On the other hand, I already know I'm wrong, in the sense that I'm not 100.00000% correct, and that my portfolio is not optimal. Fortunately I'm content to be satisfied with "probably good enough", and I don't need to claim a certainty that will never exist. The whole point of Boglehead investing is "getting your fair share." By definition, before costs, only 50% of the money can beat the market. Once we take into consideration index funds cost less than active funds, on average, index funds MUST outperform active funds. You're right that by definition only 50% of money can beat the mar...
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Shuffling between TSP, Edward Jones, and Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 3043

Re: Shuffling between TSP, Edward Jones, and Vanguard

Not only are your EJ funds high expense, they are front-end loaded. Go to cash in the EJ account and then call Vanguard to initiate the transfer.
I agree with everything, but there is no need to go to cash in advance. Vanguard should be able to do the transfer even if it is still in the funds and they will be sold in the transfer process(or at least it did in my case). This saves you from actually having to call the EJ broker and have to listen to him try to talk you out of it.
by ASUGrad
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about popularity of HSAs
Replies: 23
Views: 2301

Re: Question about popularity of HSAs

Chan_va wrote:Hsa's hit the tax trifecta. Tax free in, tax free growth, tax free out ( when used for qualifying expenses). I don't know of any other investment vehicle that does that.
You forgot one. It also ignores FICA taxes when you make contributions. :wink:

Tax free going in + no FICA taxes.
Tax free growth.
Tax free w/ds if used for medical.
If you don't use it for medical you can take it out in retirement and just pay income taxes on the w/ds similar to an IRA.

401k match 1st. HSA second. :D
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investment?
Replies: 125
Views: 11136

Re: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investmen

Lets just apply common sense to it. Why would a house go up in value? Its not magical... its bricks, wood, drywall, vinyl, etc. all built by semi skilled laborers. Unless the materials or labor skyrocket then the price to build a new home should remain pretty stable, with inflation. As long as you keep it up existing homes should last which helps keep them from depreciating, but really you are just paying maintenance instead of depreciation. So you are adding value to it in order to keep it up with inflation. Now sometimes homes really do appreciate faster than inflation, or sometimes much slower. Why? Well thats not the materials or labor. Thats the land! Physical structures themselves don't really appreciate, they either depreciate or you...
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: EJ Gadflies [Edward Jones]
Replies: 64
Views: 14203

Re: EJ Gadflies [Edward Jones]

There was a miscommunication. You see when you said you invest through Vanguard you were saying, "there is no chance in H%ll you will get my investments." But he heard, "I have money and I'm already comfortable with risk." He talks to a lot of people who don't have money, or who only use CDs. In his mind you're a live one, you just happen to be going in the wrong direction, but the odds are still better with you than 50% of the people he talked to today. Next time this happens tell them you are broke, this nice house is actually your son's and he is so nice for giving you a place to stay so you're not homeless, but its putting such a financial strain on your son he is barely getting by paycheck to paycheck. Tell them a n...
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 21953

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Ignore the article except to poke fun at it. First rebalancing INTO risky assets during a falling market is exactly what you want to do. Its the best part of rebalancing. You are buying low! This article is also from marketwatch. Read the other stuff they have on there. Some of it.... most of it is down right trash. Chuck Gaffe(sp?) normally has some pretty good articles, and there is one other guy I like but I can't remember his name right now. The rest of their writers post 'attention grabbing' articles that don't quite make sense when you think about them at all. The first sign something is wrong is most of their articles start with "10 of ____ to ____." Why is everything exactly 10 people or 10 ideas or 10 tricks, etc? One wri...
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates - Bond effects?
Replies: 7
Views: 1393

Re: Interest rates - Bond effects?

Simple common sense answer that requires no math.

You have a bond paying 3%. Tomorrow a company issues a new bond that is the exact same as yours in every single way but it pays 4%. Now no one wants your bond. So in order to get their attention you have to sell your bond at a discount.
by ASUGrad
Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: V6 or V8 engine for new Chrysler 300
Replies: 25
Views: 14499

Re: V6 or V8 engine for new Chrysler 300

tc101 wrote:I am thinking about buying a Chrysler 300, which comes with either a V6 or V8 engine. The V8 costs a little more and uses a little more gas and I don't really need that extra power, but will the V8 last much longer than the V6?
If your asking questions about lasting longer why are you looking at a Chrysler? Dodge/Chrysler/Jeep are constantly rated the lowest in reliability. They are even behind Ford, GM, and Kia.

For that much money you could also buy a much better car in my opinion. Chan_va started a nice list for you. In addition to the Hyundai Genesis(bit higher in price than the 300) you might also look at the Azera.
by ASUGrad
Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank Closing My Account With No Reason Given
Replies: 38
Views: 7920

Re: Bank Closing My Account With No Reason Given

I previously worked in a bank for years.

International wires going into an account and then being withdrawn immediately looks like money laundering. Especially if that is your only account activity.

They can close your account for that.
by ASUGrad
Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Has a financial firm made a mistake with your money?
Replies: 52
Views: 5284

Re: POLL: Has a financial firm made a mistake with your mone

Tried thinking really really hard to find one. Never could think of one. On that note working in a bank for a few years I did 'see' plenty of errors. I'll even admit one was my fault, but it was minor(transferred money to savings from checking instead of from savings to checking) and fixed quickly when I noticed the client's account was negative the next morning(I waved all fees and made sure everything got paid) :oops: . Most common were tellers mixing up amounts, luckily it was normally not the first numbers. 23,547 would turn into 23,574, but never 32,547. They always got the first numbers right. If they mixed up account numbers the computer would normally catch it so that was rare. Now the worst case I ever saw was a banker helping clie...
by ASUGrad
Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: take the quiz--test your 401(k) knowledge
Replies: 12
Views: 1634

Re: take the quiz--test your 401(k) knowledge

12/12

I did use a financial calculator on my phone to double check my educated guess on the question that required math. I was right :D .

I could see the average person getting more than a few wrong.
by ASUGrad
Sat Sep 06, 2014 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Own individual stocks? Advisor recommends 20% in blue chips?
Replies: 38
Views: 5681

Re: Own individual stocks? Advisor recommends 20% in blue ch

Index investing is great for accumulating wealth; however, you are fully invested at all times. Years when the market is overpriced or declining, no adjustment is made in the allocation whereas professional managers will make adjustments to protect the portfolio. Asset allocation has proven to be ineffective in years like 2008. It was not until year end 2012 the value was recovered. This is a lie spouted by advisors because it sounds good. Its wrong on many levels. First is that the rules going down apply as much as they do going up. If all investors pooled together average what the index averages after costs that works going down too. There are a few active funds that did better in 2008, plenty that did worse, and a whole lot that did abo...
by ASUGrad
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where can I go to get a signature guarantee or Medallion sig
Replies: 40
Views: 146630

Re: Where can I go to get a signature guarantee or Medallion

I heard from a friend who is a banker that Bank of America is no longer offering Medallions. They are phasing them out. Most ridiculous part is that Merrill Lynch(owned by BofA) still requires Medallions for various transactions. So they are having to send their own clients to other banks(where my old friend learned about it) to get it done. Its pretty stupid, and of all the banks to do BofA probably shouldn't be the first. Don't they already have a bad enough reputation for not caring about their customers and screwing them anyway they can?

Anyway... switch banks. Chase, Wells, or any regional bank would probably be happy to have you.
by ASUGrad
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no more Vanguards
Replies: 36
Views: 6567

Re: Why no more Vanguards

How would a new mutually owned company come along and offer anything close to what Vanguard has now without the same economies of scale? Vanguard didn't have this problem in the beginning. They were the first to offer no load readily available index funds. So even though they didn't have economies of scale yet their funds were dirt cheap even at 0.8% compared to active funds with 5% loads and 2% ERs. A new company won't have that advantage because they would have to compete with Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, etc. I think the only way it would happen now is if it a major company decided to switch to that model. Pretty unlikely. And mutually owned isn't always a wonderful thing. Technically Northwestern Mutual Life insurance is mutually owned, ...
by ASUGrad
Wed Sep 03, 2014 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best ROTH IRA Brokerage for 2014 onward?
Replies: 6
Views: 787

Re: Best ROTH IRA Brokerage for 2014 onward?

Depends.

If you're using Vanguard funds/ETFs anyway might as well be Vanguard. That would be my vote.
by ASUGrad
Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has VMMXX been good to you?
Replies: 11
Views: 1235

Re: Has VMMXX been good to you?

Its the cash account for a brokerage account so you can complete trades. Other than that it serves no use.
by ASUGrad
Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sick Building Syndrome (Electrical Pollution)
Replies: 17
Views: 2163

Re: Sick Building Syndrome (Electrical Pollution)

Could be worse. I read about a guy who use to work in IT around a lot of big servers, developed hypersensitivity so bad he had to move to the middle of no where and complains if people bring a mobile phone to his house. Of course he also said he could 'sense' if there was an electronic device within 100 yards so maybe he was just crazy..... Lead paint won't do. First off I don't think they do that anymore thanks to lead being poisonous. If normal is under 1 and this place is over a 3 it might be one piece of equipment is especially bad. If this is the case it would be easier to pin point the source then to redo the whole place. Side note, is it near those really big power lines that you can't build 'under' but often times have trailer parks...
by ASUGrad
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cell phone plan on cruise - direct experience?
Replies: 5
Views: 813

Re: Cell phone plan on cruise - direct experience?

Here is what I did on a cruise recently. The ship we were on charged X per day for wifi usage as long as you didn't go over a certain amount, or Y per minute to use the computers. The computers were so slow that Y ended up being a big number if you used them more than once a day so we just signed up for the wifi. Sign up for the on ship wifi and take your smartphone. Turn your phone on airplane mode(can't even try to connect to a tower), then turn the wifi on when you want to check email. Turn automatic updates and sync off so it doesn't try to update apps, contacts, etc. Your phone will ONLY use the wifi and will not try to use a tower as long as airplane mode is on. If you turn off sync you will probably have to tell your email to refresh...
by ASUGrad
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Equivalent funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1245

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Equivalent funds

EXMX (Extended Stock Market Index) --> NAESX (Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund)
The extended is a combination of small and mid caps. Shouldn't he add small and mid caps?

On that note the total is equivalent of the 500+extended. So switch the total with 80% 500 index, then 20% add in small/mid caps for this too.
by ASUGrad
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GMail successfully hacked 92% of the time
Replies: 11
Views: 2637

Re: GMail successfully hacked 92% of the time

So basically what it does is that as long as you have the infected app running it steals anything you are doing. This isn't a gmail problem. Its an anything you are doing problem. Its basically like a key logger virus but it reads anything happening on the phone. It reads activity. First line of defense. Be careful what apps you download. Second. Avoid logging into sensitive accounts via a phone. This actually shows an area where having a service like Mint is beneficial. With the mint app you just click and it shows the balances in your accounts and activity. However it does NOT show account numbers. It also doesn't require logging into each account so there is no chance to steal log in information. Third. 2 factor authentication. Sure the ...
by ASUGrad
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with AA for 25 year old
Replies: 11
Views: 1010

Re: Help with AA for 25 year old

FUSVX (Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Advtg) - 55% FSEVX (Fidelity Spartan Extnd Mkt Idx Advtg) - 10% FSIVX (Fidelity Spartan Intl Idx Advtg) - 25% FSITX (Fidelity Spartan US Bond Idx Advtg) - 10% Good idea. You are basically copying what a Vanguard Target fund would look like using Fidelity index funds. Not a bad idea if she wants to keep things simple. Just give her a link to a VG TR fund for her date and tell her to recreate it. She can set her initial contributions and revisit it once a year to make sure everything is still on track. You said she didn't want to mess with it a lot :wink: . VFFVX https://personalp.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=1487&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 For reference a VG TR 2055 fund for someone with 40 years out...
by ASUGrad
Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it me, or are "collectibles" worthless in 2014?
Replies: 79
Views: 11227

Re: Is it me, or are "collectibles" worthless in 2014?

Worst story I've heard was the guy who spent over 100k on Beanie babies thinking they would keep going up in value.
I wonder if the same thing will happen to classic cars as boomers die. Will gen-x and younger want to buy the 1920's - 1970's cars that boomers collected? I don't see it happening.
Depends on the car. Anything late 60s with the words Shelby or Ferrari are going to fetch a pretty penny. However all the old cars I see at classic car shows(as I'm passing them) are probably not worth very much.
by ASUGrad
Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1873

Re: Asset Allocation in Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds

Yeah I like them because you know what you are getting and it is just about everything. Talk about diversification.

I have the LS moderate in my HSA because the company charges maintenance fees by how many funds you have, and I think the LS income is a great alternative to CDs and short term bonds if you are ok with a little bit of fluctuation.
by ASUGrad
Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for a car
Replies: 20
Views: 3214

Re: Saving for a car

My Cruze costs $138 per month with zero down. Please explain how your ride costs less. $138/month for ten years equals $16,560. That assumes there is NO inflation, and that a similar deal is available when you go to get a new lease at the end of each 3 year period. Thats pretty unlikely. A Chevy Cruze only costs $15,275, and when you're done with it you can sell it for 'something'. And if you don't care what you drive.... Hyundai Accent is only $13,895(per Hyundai website). Best part of that deal, 10 year 100,000 mile warranty so while there will be maintenance you don't have to worry about really big expensive repairs(engine/transmission). Then you can sell it at the end of the 10 years. According to NADA a 2005 Hyundai Accent with 100,00...
by ASUGrad
Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for a car
Replies: 20
Views: 3214

Re: Saving for a car

My plan to save for a car purchase in five years is to buy the intermediate term index bond fund VBILX and add $335 per month. Is there anything wrong with this plan or is there a better way? I actually do basically the same thing. After I paid off my current car I started putting my car payment into a savings account. My logic is that if I put the $ amount of a 60 month car payment into a savings account every month and I only buy a car once every 10 years three things will happen. 1. I'll never pay interest on a car again. 2. I won't miss the money because I was use to paying a car payment, and if I didn't do this I would eventually have a car payment again. 3. Since I'm only buying a car once every 10 years, but I'm saving the same amou...
by ASUGrad
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 5413

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

But you aren't investing in commodities, you are investing in commodities futures. They behave differently. Plus, even pure commodities like gold don't have a negative expected real return, they have a zero expected real return. 1. Why would you invest in something that has a zero expected real return and a very high degree of fluctuations? 2. Gold's long term historical real returns are negative. Keep in mind all of those years that currencies were pegged to gold there was still inflation so gold had constant negative real returns for "centuries." Even after currencies were no longer pegged to gold its track record hasn't been very good. After centuries of negative real returns, and with current valuations reflecting as much 'fe...
by ASUGrad
Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advisor Compensation
Replies: 36
Views: 4828

Re: Financial Advisor Compensation

You only hold Vanguard ETFs at a full service brokerage? What is the fee when you make trades? I know they aren't often, but there are plenty of people with buy & hold stock portfolios at full service brokers(before mutual funds became popular this was the rule rather than the exception). At many 'full service' brokerages the fees for trading stocks/ETFs can be huge(4-5% in some cases). That is one way he would make money. As long as you hold them the more opportunities he has to convince you to switch to something else. Answer another question. Why does ANY firm other than Vanguard let you buy Vanguard funds through them? Vanguard isn't reimbursing them to do so. But they make a buck when you trade VG funds/ETFs, and as long as you are...
by ASUGrad
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wash D.C. speed camera - how accurate?
Replies: 40
Views: 15022

Re: Wash D.C. speed camera - how accurate?

Now if your speedometer is inaccurate, I doubt that's an excuse in the case of the ticket, nor that the car/speedometer manufacturer carries any liability. This is most certainly an excuse! At least it has worked for me 'many' times in several states. I might have had a car that was a bit too powerful for my level of responsibility when I was younger. Officially I don't have any speeding tickets. Unofficially I have been pulled over for speeding many times, twice in 24 hours even, and once got a ticket 10 minutes after leaving the court house where I was disputing a ticket. I do however have a ton of 'improper equipment' tickets because my speedometer kept malfunctioning :mrgreen: . A speeding ticket in most states equals points. An improp...
by ASUGrad
Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand my credit report
Replies: 14
Views: 2576

Re: Help me understand my credit report

"Number of accounts reported in the last 12 months" Side note: The fact that you have things on auto pay and the student loans don't have payments due yet doesn't matter. That just means all are being reported as 'current' which is exactly what you want. It doesn't hurt you. However, I would expect that the student loans wouldn't help you either; since you haven't started paying them, you don't have any record of either payment or non-payment as an indication of how you handle credit. With no payments due yet, these loans might be treated as inactive and not counted as "accounts reported". I can say this from personal experience, and professional experience working in lending. Student loans show as current when you are ...
by ASUGrad
Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hw many credit cards to own?
Replies: 123
Views: 86270

Re: Hw many credit cards to own?

3.

2 cashback cards, and a store card which I only got because it was a several thousand dollar purchase so the perks for signing up for the card were financially 'worth' having an inquiry on my credit score.

I only have two cash back cards because I had a regular card, then got a cash back card, and then my previous credit card company enticed me to start using my previous card again by upgrading it to a cash back card(with better rewards :D ).
by ASUGrad
Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand my credit report
Replies: 14
Views: 2576

Re: Help me understand my credit report

"Number of accounts reported in the last 12 months" Its the total number of accounts you have open. It will even count some closed accounts. A very small number looks bad. Based on your post you have at least 4. I say at least because student loans often times count as multiple loans instead of one. 4 isn't that bad. What is probably hurting you more is that your credit history is very short. If you have 1 account that is 3 years old and 3 that are <1 year old you don't look established. That is what number of accounts is really getting at. You don't have a well established credit history with several accounts with long histories. When I worked in banking my lending department normally wanted 3 accounts that each had over 36 mont...
by ASUGrad
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?
Replies: 45
Views: 29230

Re: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?

Actually you'll notice international did better between 2002-2008, and domestic has done better since. Might be a big reason that the listed funds did better over 10 year than the 500 index, but worse over the last 5 :wink: . Your graph perfectly explains why the American Funds' fund I was in (Fundamental Investors) did better than my S&P 500 fund. I happen to have my annual report from 2007. They had exactly 30% of the fund invested internationally. Smart move? Or lucky? If you think smart, then since 2008 they've been dumb, as measured by their actual results. If you think lucky, then since 2008 they've been unlucky. Are they going to get smart or lucky again to outperform the S&P 500? And if so, when? I think American funds like...
by ASUGrad
Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?
Replies: 45
Views: 29230

Re: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?

#3 I understand that past results are no guarantee of future returns. But if a fund or group of funds is able to consistently beat an index (fees included) over 10, 20, and 30-year rolling periods, would it be reasonable to say that it has a good chance of beating the index in the future given that the management structure and incentives remain the same? In much the same way, if an index fund outperforms most of it's peers over multiple rolling periods, would it be safe to say it has a good chance of continuing to do so in the future? No its not safe to say that.... 1# Fidelity Magellan fund. Outperformed for a long time... then it didn't for a long time. 2# Look at the 5, 3, and 1 year performance. Most of the funds listed above underperf...
by ASUGrad
Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fear of Disclosing Net Worth
Replies: 60
Views: 11605

Re: Fear of Disclosing Net Worth

I can't imagine the people saying to lie on credit applications. Not telling your banker/advisor 'all' the details is one thing. Lying on a mortgage or credit application is another. For example, on my mortgage application, I provided a partial list of assets. What? This advice might be harmful. Depending on the amount of assets you failed to disclose you are probably paying a higher interest rate on your mortgage because of this lie. I use to work in a bank with a lot of high net worth clients. I can't count the number of times a client got a 0.5% to 1% lower rate on a mortgage because they had a million+ in a brokerage account. We would assume the brokerage account was annuitized at a 4% w/d rate and add that to their income for calculati...
by ASUGrad
Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If only one Vanguard fund to invest in - what's your call?
Replies: 67
Views: 15131

Re: Target Fund glide paths.

Taylor Larimore wrote:
ASUGrad wrote:I can never change. Well thats easy. Target Retirement X. X being which makes the most sense after I compare the glide paths in a lot of detail.
ASUGrad:

Don't get hung-up on "glide paths."

Target Funds should normally be in tax-advantaged accounts. This means that you can easily exchange to another Target Fund with a different stock/bond allocation, without fees or taxes, at any time.

Best wishes.
Taylor
The point of the topic is only one fund to invest in. In reality I do total market funds. But if I can only have 1 fund and never change it. Yes I'm going to do a TR fund and be very picky about the AA and glide path.
by ASUGrad
Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If only one Vanguard fund to invest in - what's your call?
Replies: 67
Views: 15131

Re: If only one Vanguard fund to invest in - what's your cal

I can never change. Well thats easy. Target Retirement X. X being which makes the most sense after I compare the glide paths in a lot of detail.

The thing auto rebalances, owns just about 'everything', and becomes more conservative over time.
by ASUGrad
Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yourself.
Replies: 59
Views: 13328

Re: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yours

I don't trust any strategy unless I know 'why' it works. After a lot of 'backtesting' I know why this one works. Its amazing I tell you! It sends sell signals and the start date is Jan 2000! How amazing a strategy![sarcasm] It assumes you are 'out' of the market most of 2000-2003, and then it has you sell in 08. I imagine any backtesting strategy that avoids both of those crashes will have better returns than the market. Jan 2000 to Jan 2009: Backtest: 71.8% SPY -21.3% Now on the other hand if you look at the data in a bull market, well it sings another tune. Jan 09 to Aug 2014: Backtest 112%, SPY 132% I bet the reason they don't include data prior to Jan 2000 is that if you ran it for the late 90s it would underperform the market heavily. ...
by ASUGrad
Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services
Replies: 35
Views: 16434

Re: Blog: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services

Lets say an investor wants to invest in 12 ETFs in His Roth IRA with $110,000 cash balance. 7 are Vanguard ETFs. The other 5 ETFs would cost $35 each time shares are bought. If buys are made 10 times a year (total $350) where is the savings? How will Vanguard Personal Advisory Service then compete with online services like Motif Investing? Gordshe If any investor already knew he wanted 12 ETFs(why on earth would you need 12 anyway) why would he be using the service? Its meant for people who want vanguard to manage it for them, not for people who want to manage their own accounts. I won't use it, but I think it is a great service for the people who need it. It gives all the people who won't manage their own accounts somewhere to go where th...
by ASUGrad
Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fear of Disclosing Net Worth
Replies: 60
Views: 11605

Re: Fear of Disclosing Net Worth

Only slightly off topic, I note that many posters tell Vanguard about their outside investments and do so in spite of any fears about Bill McNabb calling them on the phone. We had a complete review by VG done 10 years ago. Some of the outside assets have been liquidated and consolidated with VG already but some have not. We have never been called or solicited about the assets that we still hold outside VG. I can second this. I did a rollover of a pension to VG about a year ago. During the process I also told them about a 401k I had with the same previous employer. They politely asked me if I would like to consolidate it as well. I told them why I didn't want to move it, the rep respected my decision and didn't bring it back up. I've had to...
by ASUGrad
Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FICO to raise credit scores
Replies: 11
Views: 2360

Re: FICO to raise credit scores

For clarification the way I read it does not imply they are raising everyone's scores. They are fixing a fairly obvious glitch in the way they monitor credit that was really hurting people with otherwise great credit. Basically failing to pay a ticket for running a red light or a medical bill that wasn't paid by insurance were both being treated essentially the same as a loan being sent to collections. It made no sense. Anything sent to collections was a huge red flag. Sometimes insurance doesn't pick up the tab in time for a medical bill, and it goes to collections. Sometimes you forget about a $50 parking ticket, a ticket for running a red light gets sent to a previous address, the $30 property taxes on an old car, or you didn't return th...
by ASUGrad
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 8778

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

"When is a 3.75% load worth it?"

NEVER. And I'll explain why with a one word five letter answer that has nothing to do with the performance of the fund, whether it will continue to do well, index VS active, etc.

PIXDX


Same fund, no front end load. :D
by ASUGrad
Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds' Active Investing Whitepaper
Replies: 22
Views: 5419

Re: American Funds' Active Investing Whitepaper

I''m the type of person who has to figure things out. I have a feeling figuring this out is linked to.. "Rolling monthly periods ended 12/31/13" & "Both fund and index annualized returns reflect the average of the average annual total returns for all periods. Data from published sources were calculated internally. Returns are from the first month-end following each fund’s inception date through December 31, 2013. For each fund’s comparable index/index blend, see General Methodology, page 10." If you look at the charts on page 8 & 9 funds that measure against the same index have different numbers listed for the index's average annual returns. For instance AMCAP is measured against the 500 but has the index's avera...
by ASUGrad
Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I become a CFP?
Replies: 27
Views: 8889

Re: Should I become a CFP?

Thank you for the information ASUGrad! Do you know if a BA and/or employment in the field is required to sit for the series 7 exam? ~Moshe You don't need a college education, but it obviously helps. I actually know people with no college education who have sat for the Series 7 and passed. However most firms will require a college degree to hire you. I know of exceptions where someone already had a lot of banking/insurance experience, and/or already had a Series 6 license(a much lighter version of the 7), but most investment firms want a college degree. Employment is required because a firm must sponsor you for the Series 7 exam. The firm that holds your license is also required to supervise you to make you you aren't breaking the law which...
by ASUGrad
Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10
Replies: 13
Views: 2121

Re: PE10

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The shiller CAPE PE10 ratio has only below 15(clear buy) in between the late 70s and late 80s. So I agree with the article. In short it is almost always sending a sell signal so it is always saying to sell when a crash is coming, but it never predicts when the market will go up.

Its like the pundits who call for a crash every two weeks, do this for years, and then one day they get to say that they "called the last 3 market crashes" and everyone must assume they are a genius :oops: .
by ASUGrad
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 43
Views: 6097

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Iorek wrote:Am I reading the chart wrong? It looks like the US worst case for 20 years was not loss, as the OP suggests, but a 19% gain?
I noticed this too. Equal weighted it was down, but then real was up. I'm not sure what the difference is.
by ASUGrad
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deleted
Replies: 39
Views: 5918

Re: Rules of thumb that shouldn't be

On the 401k protections notes also look at Rollover IRAs. They keep a lot of the 401k protections in many states where traditional IRAs do not :wink: . Otherwise I agree on all fronts. You should consider costs and if you think you will ever do a backdoor roth before doing a RO. "Your emergency fund should cover 3-6 months of expenses." I actually read an even worse version of this that stated the months of savings should equal the current unemployment rate. Yea... so when unemployment is at 5% only 5 months, but 'after' it goes to 10% you should up it to 10.... because you know in advance you won't be apart of that 10%. Maybe it should be based on how hard it would be for you to find a job with similar pay. Someone who is 55 in u...