Search found 137 matches

by moghopper
Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 967
Views: 97057

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

This forum is often more "religion" than "science".
by moghopper
Mon Apr 08, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Are you annually spending in Real or Nominal Terms?
Replies: 63
Views: 3959

Re: Retirees: Are you annually spending in Real or Nominal Terms?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:49 pm
how many threads do we have on this forum that say "I'm planning on X% real"? :oops: Looking forward to hearing more responses.
I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.
by moghopper
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best values at Costco? Honestly, a little disappointed...
Replies: 188
Views: 21697

Re: Best values at Costco? Honestly, a little disappointed...

fortfun wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:21 pm
Thanks for the suggestions. It's part of the Ralph's chain (CA).
a/k/a Kroger.
by moghopper
Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 93
Views: 15193

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

I suspect that we could see this kind of return again.

We'd just have to have that kind of downturn first.
by moghopper
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Financial] Habits of the Rich
Replies: 238
Views: 35210

Re: [Financial] Habits of the Rich

Without fun cars, what's the point of being rich? Security Every time I see this, or something similar that touts "security", I can only think of James Thurber. A large spider in an old house built a beautiful web in which to catch flies. Every time a fly landed on the web and was entangled in it t...
by moghopper
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 15507

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

I think all of you are reading a lot into what could be a very innocent question. If my daughter asked, I'm quite sure it would be more out of curiosity than greed. On a related question, my older brother passed away recently. After everything settles each sibling is going to get about $60,000(He d...
by moghopper
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Panic set in... now what?
Replies: 63
Views: 11296

Re: Panic set in... now what?

MisterMister wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:18 pm
...I almost feel like I need to wait for the back end of the next bear before diving back in to avoid the pain and risk of jumping back in on the latest bump.
Please tell me when this will happen. It will aid in my own planning.
by moghopper
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!
Replies: 294
Views: 35292

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!

Miriam2 wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:17 pm

On Retirement Permahold 8-)
TheTimeLord (class of 2014/2015/2016/2017/2018/2019 . . to infinity and beyond! . . )
Man, what happened to TheTimeLord? He hasn't posted in 3+months.
by moghopper
Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Data Breach exposure (Credit Karma notification)
Replies: 9
Views: 1214

Re: Data Breach exposure (Credit Karma notification)

Greetings, I was notified by Credit Karma (https://www.creditkarma.com/id-monitoring/breaches) that I was exposed - email, and password(s) - in 4 data breaches. 3 are known and confirmed on this site (https://haveibeenpwned.com/): LinkedIn, DropBox, and "Trik Spam Botnet" - Trik Spam just had my em...
by moghopper
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3802
Views: 1093891

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

OpenRoad wrote:
Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:13 pm
Almost finished with The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker. Very enjoyable read. Just finished Unbroken by Laura Hillenbrand. Enjoyed it immensely.
I just started on this book as an Audiobook. I have to admit, I'm pre-disposed to believe his premise.
by moghopper
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about the 4% rule
Replies: 27
Views: 2549

Re: Question about the 4% rule

So lets pretend you want $100,000/yr and have $2.5 million saved. That $100,000/yr includes $20,000 in vacation spending and $10,000 for a country club membership. Be prepared to not spend on vacations for a year or two and quit the country club if the market tanks. If and when it recovers you can ...
by moghopper
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about the 4% rule
Replies: 27
Views: 2549

Re: Question about the 4% rule

The 4% Rule used 70+ years of US market data from the 20th century, America’s heyday, during which it grew to become the greatest power in the history of the planet, to predict market returns during your specific 30-year retirement period in the 21st century. No one seems to be able to explain why ...
by moghopper
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?
Replies: 77
Views: 5044

Re: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?

bloom2708 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:52 pm

First, get to $1 million. Then do whatever you want next. :arrow:
While the rest of the world spends more and more, we will devolve until we get to a 0% Withdrawal Rate. Below 0%, if we can figure that out with New Math.
by moghopper
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?
Replies: 77
Views: 5044

Re: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?

bloom2708 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:00 pm

$1 million invested 60/40 will spin off about $30k-35k using the 3 to 3.5% rule for early retirement.
This is the Boglehead version of the hedonic treadmill. The SWR treadmill, if you will.
by moghopper
Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6468

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

Yes, but the index funds that track those indices are passively managed. The difference between that and what DFA does is that index fund managers do not control the index changes. I find this to be arbitrary. If DFA had an outside consultant make an "index rule" and then stuck to that - then it wo...
by moghopper
Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?
Replies: 188
Views: 17446

Re: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?

But if there was a winner yesterday, then the pot would have been less than a billion, correct? Or are you saying that by Friday's close, it was already at 1.6B? I find that hard to believe. Not what I was saying. The drawing on 10/16/2018 was for $667 Million. On 10/17/2018 (after the drawing) the...
by moghopper
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?
Replies: 188
Views: 17446

Re: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?

Sincere question:- How do they know the pot now will be 1.6 Billion? Do they just use the previous history to project the future size? We all know how future is never guaranteed to repeat the past etc. Besides, they seem to be assuming exponential curve here i.e. the growth for next one is higher t...
by moghopper
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6468

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

The S&P500 has added 16 companies this year, and 26 in 2017.

Are Standard and Poor's active managers?
by moghopper
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing mortgage pay down
Replies: 49
Views: 4171

Re: Timing mortgage pay down

30 years fixed rate mortgage is not the same as a normal bond or a bond fund. KlangFool So you say - but my point is that this subject is more nuanced than you care to consider. You have a very black and white view that is generally at odds with my experience. I don't believe that it makes any diff...
by moghopper
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Timing mortgage pay down
Replies: 49
Views: 4171

Re: Timing mortgage pay down

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm

Mortgage interest rate = X.

Market return = Y.

If Y > X, investing win.

If X > Y, pay extra win.

Stock Return = X.

Bond return = Y.

If Y > X, sell all stocks and buy bonds

If X > Y, sell all bonds and buy stocks

Simple.
by moghopper
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?
Replies: 188
Views: 17446

Re: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?

Stocks crashed 50% dump the remaining bond to stocks 100% allocation and sleep well at night. You can literally live on 5-10% of that money even if stocks down 90%. Wait... so $900Million. And let's say you really get a third after the lump sum payout and taxes. And that $300M goes to $30M in a cra...
by moghopper
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A strategy to pay off home at retirement?
Replies: 57
Views: 4534

Re: A strategy to pay off home at retirement?

I know logically that would make sense, as I would get a better return than the 3.85 fixed rate paying on mortgage. However, there is a physiological component of not having mortgage, etc. Thanks to all for your input. There is another thread here where a quote from Jack suggests "selling to the sl...
by moghopper
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 157
Views: 13780

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

BogleWogle wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:18 pm
The only question is how sizable of a legacy you want to leave for your 2 kids.
And will that legacy be in memories, or money.
by moghopper
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hard Credit Inquiry from Credco
Replies: 10
Views: 3783

Re: Hard Credit Inquiry from Credco

IIRC car dealers sometimes do a credit check when selling a new car, even if you are paying cash. Since the timing of the credit inquiry coincides with when you thawed your credit and purchased a car, this may well be the source of the credit inquiry. I wouldn't worry too much about this. I had a C...
by moghopper
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do when you find you have more money than expected?
Replies: 91
Views: 10212

Re: What will you do when you find you have more money than expected?

At first, I was going to say "A little of both". But honestly, I expect to save to a point where I have my maximum desired lifestyle. So, I'm going with choice "2."
by moghopper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Breweries - Chicago
Replies: 11
Views: 1132

Re: Best Breweries - Chicago

Thanks for the recs so far. Should add that we're staying by O'Hare the first night, and the rest of the time at the Residence Inn Downtown/River North. A group of about 15 so places we could walk from there would be ideal As for RiverNorth, well, that area is too expensive for Micros to set up sho...
by moghopper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Breweries - Chicago
Replies: 11
Views: 1132

Re: Best Breweries - Chicago

Thanks for the recs so far. Should add that we're staying by O'Hare the first night, and the rest of the time at the Residence Inn Downtown/River North. A group of about 15 so places we could walk from there would be ideal O'hare is a tough one... especially if you're thinking about walking. I woul...
by moghopper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman
Replies: 37
Views: 7894

Re: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman

And this within the link just provided: Explanation: Richard Dawkins certainly knows about evolution, and he can confidently tell us that it is true, but that doesn't make it true. What makes it true is the preponderance of evidence for the theory. I do believe that Taylor quotes the experts not as...
by moghopper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Breweries - Chicago
Replies: 11
Views: 1132

Re: Best Breweries - Chicago

Heading to a bachelor party in Chicago in late June with a bunch of friends all from the East Coast. Wondering if there are any recommendations of breweries for us to hit while we're there? Not to sound too obnoxious about it, but we live in the land of Tree House, Alchemist, Trillium, etc. so we'r...
by moghopper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman
Replies: 37
Views: 7894

Re: White Coat Investor Interviews Paul Merriman

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:44 pm
But I know that market timing works.
aristotelian:

Please read this:

What Experts Say About Market Timing vs. Stay-The-Course

Best wishes.
Taylor
and this:

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/too ... -Authority
by moghopper
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yubikey for Dummies
Replies: 21
Views: 3104

Re: Yubikey for Dummies

I was somewhat unfamiliar with the Yubikey. For most sites, I use SMS as my second factor.

I did find this: viewtopic.php?t=213426
by moghopper
Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 12105

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

Do you even include your home as a part of your net worth? I include my home in net worth. I use my purchase price to value it, I don't update that value based on zillow, or tax assessments, or anything else. I think of my net worth as something separate from my "investible assets." Therefore my ho...
by moghopper
Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Possible 1 month of unemployment -- how to maximize time off? (non job related)
Replies: 22
Views: 1915

Re: Possible 1 month of unemployment -- how to maximize time off? (non job related)

doss wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:26 pm
How long should i wait?
Don't wait.

It can take a long time to get a job. If you're old company comes through, you just stop your search. If your old company doesn't come through, you'll be another month behind.
by moghopper
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website
Replies: 161
Views: 16476

Re: Quicken Premier 5-year subscription $0 (free) on quicken website

Wake me up when I need to join the class-action lawsuit.
by moghopper
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I join my local Freemasons?
Replies: 31
Views: 5546

Re: Should I join my local Freemasons?

All I ever hear in my head is the stonecutters song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSpOjj4YD8c
by moghopper
Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still working out of greed or fear?
Replies: 46
Views: 5808

Re: Still working out of greed or fear?

Fear mainly. I am in my early 40s and 3% would be more than my annual wage and easily double my bills. I think there is significantly more risk when you start talking about leaving work in your "early 40s" - so that part I completely understand. Honest question - what is it you fear? What end game ...
by moghopper
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I feel this is a dumb question.
Replies: 3
Views: 1095

Re: I feel this is a dumb question.

Keepcalm wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:37 am
What would I classify my Income Tax Return "inflow" under in Quicken?
Tax:Federal or Tax:State is what I classify it as. It allows me to do this for a payment or a refund.
by moghopper
Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your bond allocation when you were 48
Replies: 125
Views: 8299

Re: Your bond allocation when you were 48

InvestoGuy wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:08 pm
40-60, 50-50, 30-70 or ......
Roughly 90-10
by moghopper
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 27069

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

I think to suggest that the Bogleheads' philosophy is "wrong" is to misunderstand the premise driving the philosophy. A failure to question one's own stance on occasion leads to the worst sort of echo chamber. I don't believe the OP was questioning the very existence of the "Bogleheads" - but sugge...
by moghopper
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consolidate tax lots in Roth IRA?
Replies: 15
Views: 1221

Re: Consolidate tax lots in Roth IRA?

tax lots seemingly don't really matter in a Roth IRA account. Not just seemingly. They don't matter. period. But wondering, if theory, what negative consequences could occur by consolidating into one tax lot? The only negative is that it is a waste of time. But if it fixes your OCD, go for it.
by moghopper
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear of dying with too much money?
Replies: 137
Views: 10512

Re: Fear of dying with too much money?

Dying with too much money is a symptom of a problem I do perceive on Bogleheads and that’s the pursuit of absolute economic certainty regardless of cost. YES! This exactly. So many on this thread have responded along the lines of "I could never have too much money..." But that misses the point. It ...
by moghopper
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says Fidelity will be sold in 5 years...
Replies: 37
Views: 9711

Re: Jack Bogle says Fidelity will be sold in 5 years...

TDWaterhouse was sold to Ameritrade and became TDAmeritrade. I heard TDAmeritrade is about to buy or has bought Scottrade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD_Waterhouse TD is the independent Toronto Dominion Bank. They merged US operations with Ameritrade, and control about 40% of the merged company....
by moghopper
Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 7522

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Then sometime later in 1999, I stumbled on the Retire Early Home Page . This page talked Retirement Withdrawals and the Trinity Study, which was published in 1998. It's the first place I heard about the 4% Rule. And he had studies that showed that 10, 8, 7 even 5 percent didn't always work. However...
by moghopper
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car accident - was directed to sign release
Replies: 71
Views: 6377

Re: Car accident - was directed to sign release

Why are you dealing with the other party's insurance company? You should have your insurance company represent you (that's what they are "hired" by you to do) Not really. They represent you if someone makes a claim against you, not when you have a claim against someone else. If the insurance compan...
by moghopper
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with a 25 million windfall?
Replies: 47
Views: 4246

Re: What would you do with a 25 million windfall?

Daryl wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:21 pm
$24.5M donation to The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy
Oddly enough, I was just thinking about changing my name to this. :D
by moghopper
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 3359

Re: Compounding “theory” question

I believe moghopper was referring to the volatility of the market around the time the OP was planning to retire. So if he is 45 and plans to retire in 20 years, he may see a market crash in year 19 that wipes out 50% or more of his portfolio at the worst possible time. I was trying to refer to that...
by moghopper
Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 3359

Re: Compounding “theory” question

You absolutely can - but the problem with most of those calculators is they don't take sequence of returns into account. Also, do you think you'll get 6-8% real? seems like it may be high. 6-8% nominal maybe? I guess my thought is that I like calculators, but none of them have made me stop contribut...
by moghopper
Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The car dealership model needs to die
Replies: 85
Views: 5829

Re: The car dealership model needs to die

+1 on the timeline. I'm trying to remember the outcome on the cat fight between Tesla (?) and the car dealerships. Tesla (?) wanted to sell direct as I recall. The car dealerships wanted them to sell through them - if I recall the problem. Don't know how that turned out or how long it took. There i...
by moghopper
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 9748

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

I've been listening to the fake experts this whole time. Thank God the real experts are finally here! It is a well known fact that individual investors' performance lags markets' performance and not by just a little. It is the documental evidence that the average individual investor is financially ...