Search found 77 matches

by Danzangdc
Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Market Theory vs Tesla Stock Price
Replies: 68
Views: 3755

Re: Efficient Market Theory vs Tesla Stock Price

Doesn't the price of Tesla stock disprove the assertion that the market is always efficient or rationale? The efficient market hypothesis says nothing about the market being right or rational. It just says that all public information is priced in by the market. It is priced in probabilistically. Fu...
by Danzangdc
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7922

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

yoyo6713 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:59 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:55 pm OP, try this:

https://engaging-data.com/market-timing-game/

See how you do after 10 runs.
I don't know why you keep posting this (or maybe someone else also did). When you are playing you are flying blind and that is not the case with investment.
+1
by Danzangdc
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122309

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, ...
by Danzangdc
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122309

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

It's funny reading the early posts in this thread with people telling the OP he is young and foolish and needs to stay away from the news and stop worrying. It's just the flu, etc.
by Danzangdc
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7922

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

I think that saying is aimed at "fine-tuned" market timing. If you just want to duck out to avoid a small drop and then duck back in again, you might be right about the initial drop but then wait too long and the market has already recovered before you get back in. Of course with this cra...
by Danzangdc
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6555

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

We'll get halfway there a couple days after an effective coronavirus treatment is announced. The rest will take until ...

MARCH 2021
by Danzangdc
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10297

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Intellectually, we all knew that a downturn was coming. Boom-bust cycles are the nature of our economy. The problem is that you have to know exactly when it'll happen to reap the most gain, and that's where most of us fall short. That's why we're Bogleheads. :wink: This mantra really isn't true. Fo...
by Danzangdc
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 349
Views: 30251

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

As I watched coronavirus unfold in China in January-February, I couldn't understand how the market kept going up. All these stories about enforced quarantine, social disruption, stoppage of productivity, the high mortality and R0 of the disease. Why wasn't this being priced in? I have always followe...
by Danzangdc
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 3198

Re: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?

I believe stocks will continue to be highly volatile as they have been in recent weeks. Big up, big down, big up, big down, as people try to time the bottom. But it probably will go down overall for a while yet. So many news stories yet to come about death milestones reached, cities being quarantine...
by Danzangdc
Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA for high-use big family?
Replies: 17
Views: 1205

Re: HSA for high-use big family?

Thanks for the thoughtful responses. I will try to sort through the plan options and be more specific. But the plans are with the fed gov't, if that helps at all. I am trying to decide which one to elect.
by Danzangdc
Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA for high-use big family?
Replies: 17
Views: 1205

HSA for high-use big family?

Does an HSA, which requires a high-deductible health plan, make sense for a big family with small kids? We probably access medical care 20+ times per year between annual checkups, tests for strep and ear infections, prescriptions, and the occasional emergency room visit or hospital procedure. Or is ...
by Danzangdc
Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 20370

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I vote to make an off-topic or community subforum where anything goes. Same for the "It's national dentist day. Thank you to dentists" threads.
by Danzangdc
Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Etiquette regarding fence on my property (adverse possession)
Replies: 28
Views: 6715

Re: Etiquette regarding fence on my property (adverse possession)

In order to avoid adverse possession of your land, you need to remove the adverse nature of your neighbor's possession before the limitation period runs (typical 15-20 years). You can do this by simply granting your neighbor permission to keep his fence on your property. Poof! now his possession is ...
by Danzangdc
Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many of you have rentals (i.e. you're a landlord)? Are they worth it?
Replies: 74
Views: 9396

Re: How many of you have rentals (i.e. you're a landlord)? Are they worth it?

That's a pretty high mortgage rate. Cash out and pay it off yesterday!
by Danzangdc
Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Curious to odd estate question
Replies: 91
Views: 10749

Re: Curious to odd estate question

Instruct your executor to: 1. liquidate all of your holdings to cash; 2. buy (a) a sledgehammer, (b) matches, and (c) an eBay item that costs the exact amount of the remaining estate; 3. smash the eBay item to smithereens using the sledgehammer; 4. burn the sledgehammer with one of the matches, and ...
by Danzangdc
Fri May 12, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a House - Where should I get the money for closing
Replies: 9
Views: 1888

Re: Buying a House - Where should I get the money for closing

How much is in the emergency fund? You'll need to save some cash to pay for fix-ups to your current house to get it on the market. But other than that, I would for sure draw down the emergency fund before messing with my investments. The whole point of an emergency fund is to be used in situations l...
by Danzangdc
Mon May 08, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 107
Views: 19680

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

Everyone indexing is not the same as no buy/sell transactions taking place. Indexers do sell stocks. So there would still be price setting going on, on a daily basis. Isn't the real problem that there would be lack of inventory/high demand. Everybody would be looking to buy more stocks when their pa...
by Danzangdc
Sat Apr 29, 2017 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gifting a down payment/avoiding gift tax
Replies: 27
Views: 3560

Re: Gifting a down payment/avoiding gift tax

Consolidating the advice above: 1. If you are not going to have an estate over $5._ million, then gift your son all you want and report the gift to the IRS. No taxes on the gift will ever be owed. 2. If you are going to have an estate over $5._ million, then: (a) in Year 1, gift $14k times all the p...
by Danzangdc
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $300+ to remove a racoon. Really?
Replies: 83
Views: 8368

Re: $300+ to remove a racoon. Really?

Won't the work being done scare away the raccoon? Cost = $0.
by Danzangdc
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard has switched to brokerage only accounts
Replies: 192
Views: 52040

Re: Vanguard has switched to brokerage only accounts

My account 'upgrade' was (and continues to be) a huge PITA. It was done automatically without me realizing it. I found out when I tried to do my backdoor roth and couldn't figure out any way to do it. Upon calling, rep explained that I needed to jump through x, y, z hoops first. Months later, I real...
by Danzangdc
Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 8444

Re: Investing $1M

Hi everyone, I am pretty new to this, having just read Bogle's little red book, and wanted to know how to apply to my current situation in today's economy. I will say I am pretty hurt and dismayed from people accusing me of being fictitious, not having a clue, and coming into money via luck. I also...
by Danzangdc
Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: co-worker had a baby, chipping in on gift- how much?
Replies: 57
Views: 17171

Re: co-worker had a baby chipping in on gift- how much?

I have a personal peeve against soliciting money for a second child. I say that as a parent of two who actively turned down gifts for our second from all but our closest family. For a first child I'd throw in a $20 and wish them good tidings etc. for a second child no way. +1. The expectant co-work...
by Danzangdc
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's Money - 50K - Her Advisor vs My DIY - Help
Replies: 67
Views: 8308

Re: Wife's Money - 50K - Her Advisor vs My DIY - Help

The most troubling thing OP said was that it was his wifes money. Not their money. When you're married its all of your money. I think OP and his wife need to sit down and have a discussion about how both of your money belongs to both people...since you're married and all. Couples handle finances in...
by Danzangdc
Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Insurance Premium - How to decrease.
Replies: 41
Views: 5673

Re: Home Insurance Premium - How to decrease.

I called my home insurer once and found out what my coverage was and asked them to lower it. They did, no problem. They did however tell me that my mortgage lender required insurance coverage to a certain multiple of the mortgage value. So, I had the amount reduced to exactly that number. Premium we...
by Danzangdc
Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor fee
Replies: 15
Views: 2857

Re: Advisor fee

Jake, what is there to manage? Set up a simple diversified portfolio, with the help of a fee advisor or not, check the box to reinvest dividends/coupons, and you are done. And if you have separate income to invest from, set up automatic investments.
by Danzangdc
Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage APR 4.96% - too high?
Replies: 58
Views: 6107

Re: Mortgage APR 4.96% - too high?

You can make your loan significantly cheaper by (1) raising your credit and (2) increasing your down payment. Those two things go hand in hand. If you hold off buying for six months or a year, you'll have longer credit histories, lower utilization, and more money saved. Now, interest rates may go up...
by Danzangdc
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much life insurance?
Replies: 20
Views: 3153

Re: How much life insurance?

If you die young, there is a very high chance your wife will be remarried within five years. Same thing in reverse if she dies young. Do you think the survivor would work or parent full time? If parent full time, then life insurance would need to cover living expenses in those gap years. You haven't...
by Danzangdc
Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I move in this market?
Replies: 10
Views: 1517

Re: Should I move in this market?

I'd ask a realtor this question since he/she lives and breaths the real estate market in your area. Any good realtor should have a sense of realistic home appreciation over the short and long term. As you know, not all price points will have the same price appreciation. Go here to find a high octan...
by Danzangdc
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you clear your inbox?
Replies: 49
Views: 5559

Re: Do you clear your inbox?

I treat my work and personal email the same. My inbox is my todo list. For example, if I receive an email that I need to act on, it stays in the inbox until I act on it. Emails I want to save, get filed into the appropriate folder. Other emails get deleted. A lot of emails from work do not pertain ...
by Danzangdc
Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a good analogy for average returns?
Replies: 45
Views: 3955

Re: What's a good analogy for average returns?

Very good responses. I didn't get the golf analogy, but that's because I don't know anything about golf. Don't use any analogies to games of skill. Because it invites the response: "Well, then I'll go with the Tiger Woods of advisors." For a lay investor, active investment is a game of pu...
by Danzangdc
Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.875% mortgage pay-off financially justifiable?
Replies: 64
Views: 12309

Re: 2.875% mortgage pay-off financially justifiable?

Another way to think of the mortgage payoff vs. investing question is to think of it in terms of asset allocation. If the OP's chosen AA is 50/50 stocks/bonds, and if the mortgage is treated as similar to an ultra low-risk bond, then it does not make sense to dump a lot of cash on the mortgage. The ...
by Danzangdc
Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: seeking advice - need to advise newly widowed mother in deep debt
Replies: 46
Views: 5047

Re: seeking advice - need to advise newly widowed mother in deep debt

I read the situation and it doesn't seem to be much different from a 30-year-old in deep debt. Simply have her sell everything and rent an apartment with her income. She is all set for life. +1. There is plenty of liquidity to pay the debt. I don't know if any bankruptcy judge who's going to let a ...
by Danzangdc
Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling diamond engagement ring
Replies: 40
Views: 6198

Re: Selling diamond engagement ring

If you bought the ring yourself, I have no advice for you. If you received the ring from someone else in anticipation of marriage, my advice is that you should give it back.
by Danzangdc
Sun Jan 08, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with paying off debt
Replies: 56
Views: 6302

Re: Help with paying off debt

Your PMI is raising your effective home loan interest rate to about 5%. Generally I would go along with most of the other suggestions made here, but in your case plunking down 16k and knocking out the PMI saves $95 per month. This is considerably more than the sum total of monthly interest in all o...
by Danzangdc
Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth issue using Federal MMF
Replies: 27
Views: 3129

Re: Backdoor Roth issue using Federal MMF

My end-of-2016 conversion took forever as well. Deposited from outside bank into MM fund (I don't knwo which) and came back day after day to convert but got error messages preventing me from doing it. Took about a week before I could convert, leaving some earnings in the TIRA account. :annoyed In pr...
by Danzangdc
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?
Replies: 174
Views: 16559

Re: At what age, income, and NW would you buy a $50k car?

Is 50k a lot? My slightly used Honda minivan was into the $40ks...
by Danzangdc
Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: best 529 plan for grandchildren
Replies: 11
Views: 1848

Re: best 529 plan for grandchildren

California's 529 plan offers stock index fund investments at ERs of .10 and .09 and a bond index fund investment at an ER of .16. That's what we went with for our investments over and above our in-state deductible amount.
by Danzangdc
Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 CC - Consolidating My Debt of $2,800.00
Replies: 7
Views: 1364

Re: 2 CC - Consolidating My Debt of $2,800.00

Does your school give out loans for any purpose, or doesn't it have to be for educational purposes? If so, it would be fraudulent to do what you're suggesting, right?
by Danzangdc
Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Brand new member enrolling in 401K for first time
Replies: 36
Views: 6485

Re: Brand new member enrolling in 401K for first time

At those ERs, you should invest first in an IRA (Roth or regular) up to $5,500/yr at Vanguard or similar in a low-cost index fund. If you can save more than that - and it seems you can given your loan pay downs - then put into your 401k whatever more you can bear (Roth or regular). I would pay off t...
by Danzangdc
Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 54K left in Federal Student Loans.....wanting to buy/build a home.
Replies: 19
Views: 2620

Re: 54K left in Federal Student Loans.....wanting to buy/build a home.

You don't need a house now if it's just the two of you. That's just extra cost and wasted space. Knock out the 6% debt. Start building your reserves back up. By the time you have a kiddo and want more space for him/her to run around, you'll have money again for a down payment and will have a better ...
by Danzangdc
Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guaranteed 6.8% by paying down student loans?
Replies: 18
Views: 3259

Re: Guaranteed 6.8% by paying down student loans?

At 6.8%, it's a no-brainer to throw all your extra money at the loan. Guaranteed, tax-free, high-rate return, plus the psychological gains of getting that monkey off your back, freeing up cash flow, becoming more credit worthy for a home loan, etc. If you can re-fi down to sub 4%, then the question ...
by Danzangdc
Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: too much passive indexes => bad governance?
Replies: 15
Views: 2317

Re: too much passive indexes => bad governance?

There is some erroneous thinking behind the concern over corporate management becoming lax with the rise of index funds. I bet that most people who choose to buy index funds would not, if they held individual stocks instead, actively police company managers. I have owned individual stocks, and I nev...
by Danzangdc
Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?
Replies: 32
Views: 3733

Re: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?

In the very, very long term, values for flat land will go down in real terms. It's been at a premium for all of human history vs. water, mountains, gorges, etc. because it can be built upon and farmed and because people prefer walking to swimming or climbing when they need to get around. But as tech...
by Danzangdc
Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance my mortgage?
Replies: 9
Views: 1419

Re: Should I refinance my mortgage?

I would refinance if/when you're comfortable with a 15 year fixed rate mortgage. You can get around 2.70% currently on that. If you're going to start your amortization back over at 30 years AND increase your rate (to around 3.7%) with that loan type, I'd be inclined to keep what you've got and re-e...
by Danzangdc
Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's Speculation Component
Replies: 20
Views: 2504

Re: Bogle's Speculation Component

It increase at 0.1% annual rate for the period studied above. I'm not sure I understand the question. It moves up and down but at the end almost cancels out to just 0.1%/year Beginning value * (1 + return % ) ^ years - 1= return % =1*(1+0.001)^100-1=~0.11 So 0.1% speculative return means P/E increa...
by Danzangdc
Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:45 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Why no OT forum?
Replies: 33
Views: 10995

Re: Why no OT forum?

Except the forum does allow political and off-topic posts when the views expressed are deemed innocuous.
by Danzangdc
Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College Savings Plans
Replies: 11
Views: 1025

Re: College Savings Plans

Use the MD plan to get the state tax deductions and to have the money grow tax free. It is a superior savings vehicle to anything else you could use to fund college. Make sure you choose the do-it-yourself option and do not go through a broker, or else the costs will be higher. I would choose the lo...
by Danzangdc
Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which one to do first, a Refinance or Remodel?
Replies: 10
Views: 1140

Re: Which one to do first, a Refinance or Remodel?

Your 30-year fixed interest rate is going to be much worse than your ARM rate. You will be paying much more in interest, even though your monthly payments may be the same, after you pour a bunch of money into the mortgage. Why would you do this to yourself three years before you need to? Because rat...
by Danzangdc
Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads for Diet/Nutrition?
Replies: 66
Views: 7975

Re: Bogleheads for Diet/Nutrition?

low carbs
med protein
high fat