Search found 505 matches

by happyisland
Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 244
Views: 11749

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]

nigel_ht, I think this is the wrong place for you. No point being here as an Anti-Boglehead. Ah the good old no true scotsman, I like it! /s Which Boglehead principle did he break? I don’t see him recommending market timing, unless you are trying to argue that all DCA is market timing, but that is ...
by happyisland
Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 244
Views: 11749

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used

Really? You weren’t kidding? Look, you guys can claim that the market is disconnected from the economy all you like but you DO understand that the economy does impact earnings right? If the economy is bad and people are saving instead of buying then companies like Apple get hurt because iPhone sale...
by happyisland
Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is a shorter commute worth the extra cost?
Replies: 30
Views: 1644

Re: is a shorter commute worth the extra cost?

totally worth it.

When we bought our current house around 10 years ago it shortened my daily commute by about 30 minutes, and that was one of the single biggest lifestyle upgrades I've ever had.
by happyisland
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 244
Views: 11749

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used

i've been dca-ing for 25 years almost all of my money was invested using dca, no way I ever had that much to lump-sum i also value-averaged numerous times during corrections and crashes for even more shares, yes, i timed my larger purchases since my portfolio is larger than it's ever been, even aft...
by happyisland
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 244
Views: 11749

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used

[snip] Most people are not able to switch off their emotions completely. That’s why many need to pay a high cost advisor to hold their hand. I was thinking this too, and am glad you posted it. The argument for DCAing a lump sum sounds very similar to the argument for paying an advisor to help stay ...
by happyisland
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 244
Views: 11749

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used

i've been dca-ing for 25 years almost all of my money was invested using dca, no way I ever had that much to lump-sum i also value-averaged numerous times during corrections and crashes for even more shares, yes, i timed my larger purchases since my portfolio is larger than it's ever been, even aft...
by happyisland
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 81
Views: 6591

Re: Investing in International Stocks

I'll use portfoliovisualizer.com to make the calculations. The holding period will be May-1996 to Dec-2019. I'm leaving out the current 2020 bear market so it doesn't end on a temporary downturn making things look worse than they are. To assess risk, I'll look at Max Drawdown because drawdown durin...
by happyisland
Mon May 25, 2020 7:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: put bonds purchases on hold while stock prices still low?
Replies: 5
Views: 554

Re: put bonds purchases on hold while stock prices still low?

Well I HIGHLY recommend checking out the wiki, for that IPS article and anything else you're feeling unsure about. :sharebeer
by happyisland
Sun May 24, 2020 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7397

Re: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks

I came of investing age in the dotcom era, so my path to becoming a Boglehead included such gems as Nortel, JDS Uniphase, Worldcom & Loral. All were borderline "can't miss" investments, given their entrenchment in the 'new economy'. I'm guessing that period alone set my retirement back by at least f...
by happyisland
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 2905

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

bgf wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 12:16 pm
I'm glad I'm past these days. I no longer even feel the envy.
Haha - totally agree. I actually feel bad for the people out there who are still in the phase where they think they have a stock picking edge.
by happyisland
Fri May 22, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2706

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

Stock picking is incredibly difficult. Once you realize that stock prices are forward looking, it clicks. I work with people who still and always will have the attitude of "this company is solid, their stock will perform well." Everyone else knows the company is solid, too, and will thus pay for th...
by happyisland
Tue May 19, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of sunglasses?
Replies: 77
Views: 3914

Re: What kind of sunglasses?

Just to push back against the cheap sunglass crowd a smidge, I find the difference between glass lenses (much more scratch resistant, noticeably clearer to look through) and plastic cheapos to be worth the price difference.
by happyisland
Sun May 17, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10155

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

December 13, 2013 BTC was $880. Quite a run after being less than $200 in November of that year. In that day in history a poster discussed investing $30k. Forum laughed at them. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=128267 Today that $30k is worth $336k. At one point it was worth almost ...
by happyisland
Sun May 17, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10155

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Second, use in Venezeuala has skyrocketed yes, but transaction amounts are very low. Do you have a source for this? I live very close to Venezuela, and interact with Venezuelan immigrants on a daily basis, and I have never, ever heard of anyone using bitcoin. (I totally agree with the gist of your ...
by happyisland
Fri May 15, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Practicing diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 598

Re: Practicing diversification

Sell the shares. Concentrating that much of your portfolio in a single stock is taking unnecessary risk. This is even more of an issue since you work for the company and so are already heavily exposed to its successes and failures.
by happyisland
Sat May 02, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations
Replies: 106
Views: 6544

Re: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations

Protecting 1% of your portfolio may not be enough. Suppose you have 99,000 in cash and 1,000 in gold. If prices rise by a factor of 100 and gold follows suit, then your gold would be worth 100,000 so your total portfolio is worth 199,000. But accounting for inflation is is only worth 1,990 -- a 98....
by happyisland
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 3926

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

Sorry to confuse you with the "business model" language. I just meant that, if you think firearm ownership (and I'm assuming at least pretending to be willing to use it to shoot other people for theft) is a requirement for the investment you're discussing, then for me that is too high an expense rat...
by happyisland
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 3926

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

So a key part of this business model would be a willingness to commit homicide using a firearm? I'm out. In the U.S., the sort of people who are storing 1,000 gallons of diesel are not necessarily people that thieves would want to encounter. :wink: This made me chuckle a bit but I think it is hard f...
by happyisland
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: (3FP) - How much intl?
Replies: 18
Views: 1161

Re: (3FP) - How much intl?

According to a perfunctory googling, "As of 2018, market capitalization in the United States of America [...] accounts for 45.02% of the world's market capitalization."

So maybe go with 45% US, 55% ex-US? That would be most in-line with the Boglehead philosophy, IMO.
by happyisland
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kafkaesque speeding ticket situation
Replies: 34
Views: 3977

Re: Kafkaesque speeding ticket situation

[*]I tried calling the number, and I got someone yelling at me in German. This is probably the least surprising part of your entire ordeal. Has anyone ever had any dealings with a German where, while they were speaking German, it didn't seem like they were yelling at you? 😂 And again, imagine the r...
by happyisland
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kafkaesque speeding ticket situation
Replies: 34
Views: 3977

Re: Kafkaesque speeding ticket situation

you could always stick a $20 in an envelope and mail it to the address they provided, along with the picture, and say you were sorry and hoped this covered it. Trust me, somebody in that office speaks English. Winner. Make it $30 if you’re feeling generous. Guys, I really doubt they accept foreign ...
by happyisland
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the psychology of some boglehead posters.
Replies: 38
Views: 1957

Re: Understanding the psychology of some boglehead posters.

Trying to get away with having an argument without paying? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpAvcGcEc0k SO GOOD. I'm just here for 'being hit on the head lessons'... :D I don't understand. What is the argument to be had here? I'm sorry, is this a five minute argument, or the full half hour?
by happyisland
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the psychology of some boglehead posters.
Replies: 38
Views: 1957

Re: Understanding the psychology of some boglehead posters.

anoop wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:37 pm

Trying to get away with having an argument without paying?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpAvcGcEc0k
SO GOOD.
I'm just here for 'being hit on the head lessons'... :D
by happyisland
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kafkaesque speeding ticket situation
Replies: 34
Views: 3977

Re: Kafkaesque speeding ticket situation

I'm not seeing anything Kafkaesque about this situation.
I can't imagine any jurisdiction in the States issuing tickets in the violator's language, or accepting payment in a foreign currency.
by happyisland
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?
Replies: 142
Views: 35326

Re: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?

smectym wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:50 am
To those who say “Stay the Course,” I take the point, but my rejoinder is, “Don’t Lose Money.” If you’re going to distill all financial wisdom into three words, which pithy aphorism is best?

I think of the first as being an essential component of the second.
by happyisland
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122074

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

For a long time I've been thinking that posting one's investment thoughts, especially in advance of an action, is a bad way to go for me . Here are the negatives I see: 1) You get criticism from people hiding behind anonymous user names (on this forum it's really bad) 2) The critiques might effect ...
by happyisland
Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: place a fill or kill order help and is tilray worth a few K's ???
Replies: 10
Views: 681

Re: place a fill or kill order help and is tilray worth a few K's ???

Advice from an internet friend: check out the wiki on this site. Reading it in 2013 completely changed my financial life.
by happyisland
Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bet the house. [Rebalanced portfolio to a 10/90 asset allocation]
Replies: 255
Views: 10087

Re: I bet the house.

Reminds me of a great scene in one of my favorite tv shows of all time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Po4adxJxqZk
by happyisland
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 25000

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

Quote from another discussion happening now that seems relevant: Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. “You have to respect the fact that when you don’t have an information advantage to not make any significant moves.” https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5048417 OP: d...
by happyisland
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 10
Views: 970

Re: Expat and currency exchange

Just for the benefit of other readers, it's probably only responsible to point out that annual FBAR disclosures are required unless balance in foreign account never exceeds USD 10K. This is not hard, but not zero additional work either, and the consequences of disclosure lapses can be severe. Annua...
by happyisland
Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 18165

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

That's boomer logic. Uhhhhhh. Non-boomer reporting here, with truly zero understanding of the value of bitcoin. - it fluctuates wildly in value, so you would be crazy to use it for savings - it is borderline useless as a currency except, maybe possibly, at a handful of online stores I like selling ...
by happyisland
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: One share of MSFT per paycheck
Replies: 52
Views: 5159

Re: One share of MSFT per paycheck

It makes sense to invest in what I know. This is something that people say from time to time, but I honestly don't get it. Not trying to be argumentative, but I just don't understand how investing in a company that you are familiar with gives you some kind of advantage. Peter Lynch has a lot to say...
by happyisland
Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: One share of MSFT per paycheck
Replies: 52
Views: 5159

Re: One share of MSFT per paycheck

TechGuy365 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:31 pm

It makes sense to invest in what I know.
This is something that people say from time to time, but I honestly don't get it. Not trying to be argumentative, but I just don't understand how investing in a company that you are familiar with gives you some kind of advantage.
by happyisland
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 18165

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

Addendum: Remember Bitcoin is not for buying coffee tomorrow morning or buying your girlfriend useless overpriced flowers in February. What IS it for again? I honestly can't remember. It seems like it can't really be used to buy and sell things in any kind of efficient way. It seems like the value ...
by happyisland
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 248
Views: 15109

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

Or France? France went on strike when they tried to institute a 35-work week. Not much much confidence there either, no. I am NO economist. But I don't really see anything about European economies that make me think they'll do better than the US over the next century or so, which is longer than my ...
by happyisland
Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How high is health insurance going to go?
Replies: 79
Views: 6361

Re: How high is health insurance going to go?

Maybe this is me being optimistic, but it seems like the USA will eventually figure this out. I am hoping that, say 20 years from now, America will have brought its health care costs and results into line with the rest of the developed world.
by happyisland
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 18165

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

If your next unneccessary gear purchase is bitcoin, you can tell your wife that the big parts of the European Union apparatus views it as a currency. I cant think how to help you with the extension to guitars as currency though, not divisible, fungible etc, there, you are on your own. Good luck wit...
by happyisland
Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How high is health insurance going to go?
Replies: 79
Views: 6361

Re: How high is health insurance going to go?

As a US citizen expat this is my #1 source of heartburn when I think about possibly moving back to the States someday. The health insurance system in the US is so expensive I almost can't believe it when you guys throw these numbers around. Yikes. Hopefully the country will figure this stuff out and...
by happyisland
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 18165

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

bitdocmd wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:42 pm

Bitcoin is not ready as a payment technology.

For now think of it as digital gold.
So kind of like a vintage guitar amp? :happy
by happyisland
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 18165

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

App called Flexa. Crate Barrel accepts it now too. One time I sold an old stratocaster on craigslist, and then I used some of that money to buy myself a celebratory coffee. Does that mean guitars are a currency now? Please let me know ASAP, since maybe that will keep my spouse from getting irritate...
by happyisland
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is a wealth management group really necessary?
Replies: 9
Views: 1314

Re: Is a wealth management group really necessary?

RickBoglehead wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:51 am
Have you read the Wiki? Or The Boglehead's Guide to the Three fund Portfolio?
Essential reading. OP, both will answer your questions, comprehensively.
by happyisland
Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Networth- in diversified assets vs mainly in investment portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 1118

Re: Networth- in diversified assets vs mainly in investment portfolio

You will get as many opinions on this as there are bogleheads. My personal one is that, through personal experience of owning non-tradeable assets, I have come to strongly value the liquidity in stocks and bonds.
by happyisland
Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 217
Views: 15456

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Monkeydart Hedge

Long:
RUN


Short:
BABY
by happyisland
Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: travel from the U.S. to Europe given geo-political tensions?
Replies: 117
Views: 7784

Re: travel from the U.S. to Europe given geo-political tensions?

Pacific wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:50 pm
I would avoid France at all costs.
Wait, what?
by happyisland
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is China necessary as part of portfolio?
Replies: 3
Views: 499

Re: Is China necessary as part of portfolio?

Anon9001 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:38 am
They both costs above 1%. Should I avoid these funds?
Too expensive. Avoid.
by happyisland
Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Before I found Bogleheads.....
Replies: 36
Views: 3466

Re: Before I found Bogleheads.....

1. I assumed that the advice I was getting from my "wealth managers" at ML was in my best interest.
by happyisland
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1525
Views: 392662

Re: Share your net worth progression

Age 61, Married. Retired in April of 2018. The following is just for me as I wanted to be able to compare now with 27 years ago. Mostly I had low stock allocations and was lucky to live through a good economy and a long period of pretty good bond returns. Was always a good saver but nothing crazy. ...