Search found 39 matches

by boo-yah
Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2022 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 320
Views: 36248

Re: 2022 Hedge Fund contest

Mart Throwing Donkeys are back!

Long:
CRMT
WMT

Short:
MASS
CASS

"You'd be an ass not to invest with us"
by boo-yah
Thu May 27, 2021 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Drawing over 400K on HELOC to invest in market?
Replies: 109
Views: 14155

Re: Drawing over 400K on HELOC to invest in market?

bornloopy wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 1:52 pm Here is the thing though.

6 months ago I had 800K in stock trading profits (taking into account tax).
Can you tell us more about your "stock trading" profits and how you made these? I assume these are different than investment returns, so I am wondering about the decisions you made back then as this may be helpful in understanding why you are pursuing this HELOC.
by boo-yah
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 158455

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

The problem with wishing you luck, is that if you make this move and you actually do avoid a crash and end up ahead, it will be exactly that - just luck. It won't be because you smarter than everybody else, saw something that nobody else did, or have a special instinct about the markets - yet you will convince yourself that these are true. Because the outcome was good, you will think your market timing strategy was the correct one, and you will be more likely to continue making market timing moves in the future... until your luck runs out.

So I won't wish you luck, but do wish you well.
by boo-yah
Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 80254

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Larry -

Thank you for all you've done to help those on this forum. Even though I rarely post, I peruse bogleheads a great deal and have learned so much from you and others that donate your time and efforts to what is overall one of the nicest and most welcoming forums I've seen on the internet. I swear one of the main reasons I spend so much time here is just to experience that sense of community that is so lacking just about everywhere else. Your earnestness and desire to help and inform shows through so well in your posts - you've left a great legacy here with what you've done, no matter who attacks you.

Best wishes to you and your family, and a sincere thank you.
by boo-yah
Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 247
Views: 50337

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

The Unstable Value Fund
"We guarantee you'll go for a ride."

LONG:
WATT
GOGO
SUP

SHORT:
MUSA
COMM
DOW
by boo-yah
Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any one planning to add precious metal in there portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 3267

Re: any one planning to add precious metal in there portfolio

You are not rebalancing, you are changing your asset allocation.

I read your post as

Old allocation:
78% stock (60% US, 8% Intl, 10% REIT)
22% cash

New allocation:
95% stock (60%, 20% Intl, 10% REIT, 5% Gold)
5% cash

Why? Can you explain your reasoning? You are upping your risk level substantially. Has something changed about your circumstances?
by boo-yah
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Trouble with "Buy and Hold"
Replies: 144
Views: 20657

Re: The Trouble with "Buy and Hold"

Since buy and hold is guaranteed to get the market return, it seems like the onus should be on any system to show that it is more likely to produce better returns. Statistically significantly better returns - not that it beat it once, twice, or many times based on the trace of actual stock market history, but that it is likely to produce better results in the future. This is not just the argument that backtesting is meaningless because no one knows the future, but rather that given the distribution of possible returns based on past data, that the system will consistently beat buy and hold. So I think before any system of timing is even worth discussing, I would need to see some monte carlo simulations that implement the system on a variety ...
by boo-yah
Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 25824

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

What I am suggesting, to a degree, and only some of the time, is that the large cap stock market over-anticipates future economic conditions more than small value stocks. This occurs in both directions - over enthusiasm for growth and overreaction to fear. In contrast, during periods of exuberance and fear, small value stocks may reflect actual conditions better than large cap stocks, i.e. they better reflect the underlying economy. I am having some cognitive dissonance with this - SCV has more risk, higher beta than S&P500, no? Yet you seem to suggest that large cap overreacts both positively and negatively, implying that the S&P500 has higher risk and higher beta. Your numbers (though a small sample) seem to suggest this as well:...
by boo-yah
Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aug. 2017 US total eclipse hotel reservations.
Replies: 83
Views: 12282

Re: Aug. 2017 US total eclipse hotel reservations.

NASA has an interactive version of the map posted earlier

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/S ... oogle.html

which you can zoom in and use to find a small town with maybe a mom and pop motel, a campground, park, or which milepost to pull off of along the right highway. I'm thinking about being out on one of the lakes that are crossed by the path of totality.
by boo-yah
Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I devastatingly far behind on retirement savings and how can I catch up?!
Replies: 40
Views: 8579

Re: Am I devastatingly far behind on retirement savings and how can I catch up?!

njfastlife wrote:29 years old
Don't need to read any further to answer your first question:
No.
by boo-yah
Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is why a 100% stock allocation is a bad idea
Replies: 71
Views: 16131

Re: This is why a 100% stock allocation is a bad idea

I guess I'm not clear on the point that the OP is trying to make. He seems to be suggesting that 100% stocks is too risky, and provides an example of the negative consequences of that risk. However, selling a diversified S&P index fund to put money into an idiosyncratic single business startup massively increases risk. Clearly the OP has a very high risk tolerance, and so 100% stocks was probably just fine for him in the first place. Not everyone can handle the risk of starting a business, particularly with their own retirement money - but the OP can. Even though the risk showed up in 2009, it didn't stop him from taking even more risk on. Doesn't seem consistent with the stated message of 100% stock allocation is a bad idea because it'...
by boo-yah
Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Minority of Investors" ... Billionaires
Replies: 35
Views: 6270

Re: "The Minority of Investors" ... Billionaires

I would have thought that most bogleheads would be aware of ASYMX, the index fund for the asymmetric low-risk high-reward investment asset class. It looks very attractive right now.

However, I have heard that they will be splitting it up into two separate funds - a US asymmetric low-risk high-reward fund and an international asymmetric low-risk high-reward fund. But that's probably a topic for another thread.

:twisted:
by boo-yah
Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lemhi Pass (Lewis & Clark trail)
Replies: 4
Views: 1274

Re: Lemhi Pass (Lewis & Clark trail)

It's been a few years since we've been, but it is a pretty well-graded dirt road over the summit, so I think their estimate is probably pretty good. There aren't as many switchbacks and it doesn't climb as high as a lot of other passes - you can see why they chose this route over the divide. However, I recommend spending some time at the top - the views are fantastic. We happened to go this route right after a few weeks of unseasonably cold and rainy weather which created a mud issue at one point - we ran across an abandoned car stuck and almost blocking the route, with just enough room for us to squeak by (we were going downhill, fortunately). So do ask about the conditions, but it should be fine anytime later in the summer.

Enjoy.
by boo-yah
Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 333
Views: 43874

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

0.22% overall. If I take out TIAA real estate (ER 0.92%) it drops to 0.13%, and if I also take out TIAA traditional (ER of zero) then it goes back up to 0.15% for just the mutual funds and one ETF.
by boo-yah
Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Secular Stagnation - How to invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 4312

Re: Secular Stagnation - How to invest?

This seems like a revealing use of tense here:
caliguy1 wrote: it would have been better to invest in high yielding 8%+ investments
However, this is not quite correct - I suggest that it would have been better to invest in high yielding 10%+ investments.

But the past is the past, and the only actionable question is about the future. We should all think 10 years down the road and ask: What will have been the best investment?
by boo-yah
Wed May 11, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of Golden Era for Investors...?
Replies: 58
Views: 12436

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors...?

We hear so much of this these days - everyone keeps talking about the "new normal" of lower returns, that we need to lower our expectations over the next decade or two, etc. I understand that these are not just doom and gloom fearmongers, but respected and well-informed people in finance that presumably have some insight (Bogle included), and perhaps some data from valuations that point this way. I also understand that they are not making specific predictions, just describing very broad trends. My question is, can anyone point to a time when there was a seeming consensus like this, with everyone agreeing that in the next decade or two returns will be - pick one: dismal/poor/flat/good/wow! - and then it actually came to pass? Or wh...
by boo-yah
Wed May 04, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 99
Views: 14158

Re: How many funds in your portfolio?

12, in three accounts, all tax-advantaged.

A lot is driven by the choices available in each account - e.g. in one account there are no good cheap total market funds, so I have an S&P fund and an International Developed there, and separate small/mid cap US and emerging markets in another. I can't buy ETFs in my workplace accounts, so I have a Roth with SCZ as my international small cap. I take advantage of TIAA Traditional and Real Estate in my TIAA account because I can. Total Bond is the only fund that my accounts have in common, but counts as two (TBIIX and VBTLX) Yes, I slice and dice, but thanks to the Bogleheads I have a simple worksheet to keep track of it all and optimize where my contributions go each month.
by boo-yah
Fri Apr 22, 2016 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA CREF Traditonal Annuity + Vanguard Target Date. Tell me I'm wrong.
Replies: 6
Views: 1111

Re: TIAA CREF Traditonal Annuity + Vanguard Target Date. Tell me I'm wrong.

Make sure you understand what the TIAA Traditional Annuity really is, first. It doesn't offer you access to other investments - the only thing they offer you is the guaranteed rate of return. All those things in their general account add up to their secret sauce to ensure that they'll be able to pay you the guaranteed rate, but it's really irrelevant to you. The key thing about the TA is that it comes in two types depending on your contract - an illiquid (GRA) form and a fully liquid (GSRA) form. You may have access to both, if you have separate contracts for employer contributions vs. your own contributions. The illiquid form offers you a higher rate but locks up your money - if you want to withdraw it you need to take payments spread over...
by boo-yah
Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More code for getting TREA quote into Google Sheets
Replies: 8
Views: 2516

Re: More code for getting TREA quote into Google Sheets

Thank you, The529guy!

I had noticed this, and tried poking around the TIAA website but couldn't figure anything out. I appreciate your posting it here for all of us.
by boo-yah
Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to respond to a siblings who gloats over a great stock pick?
Replies: 51
Views: 6356

Re: How to respond to a siblings who gloats over a great stock pick?

You could congratulate him on his good luck - and then tell him that you will stick with your index funds because you could never handle that level of risk.
by boo-yah
Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock trading automation software
Replies: 22
Views: 3448

Re: Stock trading automation software

Tanelorn wrote: You can buy a fast data feed, sure, but that only tells you what as happened in the past, not what is coming in the future.
But isn't that the point - that they do know the future? They know of your order after you place it, but by the time it gets to the exchange they are there ready and waiting, knowing your order will be arriving shortly.
by boo-yah
Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 50420

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Name: Mart Throwing Donkeys

Long:
CRMT
SMRT
WMT

Short:
HE
HA
by boo-yah
Thu Dec 10, 2015 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilt Question: Small Caps
Replies: 52
Views: 6878

Re: Tilt Question: Small Caps

First the greatest benefits from international investing in terms of diversification come from international small, not large. So if going to tilt at all should do it internationally before domestic. Larry I haven't heard this before - do you have an article or a reference somewhere that goes into this? I'm also curious if the diversification advantage is due only to the size factor or the size and value factors combined. Without access to DFA's DISVX, it seems like a moot point since practically you can only effectively tilt to international small and not international small value - but if the size factor alone provides a diversification advantage, then it may still be worth doing. But if you go further and screen out the bad small stocks...
by boo-yah
Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you view family photos?
Replies: 22
Views: 2714

Re: How do you view family photos?

We have one of those digital frames from Kodak with photos on a flash drive. It's a little work, but I've gone through our chronologically ordered photos and made smaller copies of everything using a mass export and resize function in Picasa so they don't take up so much space. Low resolution is fine on a small frame anyways, and I still have the big originals. Our flash drive now has over 11,000 of these small photos on it going back to when our kids were very small and very cute (we went digital in 2003). The frame sits on our kitchen counter and is set to show a random photo every minute. It is quite the conversation piece for us.
by boo-yah
Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Q about timing of electronic transfers
Replies: 2
Views: 589

Re: Q about timing of electronic transfers

Thanks, it's good to hear that it's not just Fidelity - I guess receiving the "transfer" is different than actually receiving the money. I wonder if the amount is actually held - perhaps I should do the experiment to see if I can spend the account down after receiving the email, or see if I can make the transfer bounce...
by boo-yah
Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I respectfully reject ( some of) Mr. Bogle's advice
Replies: 51
Views: 10153

Re: Why I respectfully reject ( some of) Mr. Bogle's advice

Might I, equally respectfully, suggest that you are confusing strategy with outcome? When you say It has served us well over the decades... I interpret this to mean that you've been 100% equities and rode the bull market, got lucky with your timing, and won the game. However, there must have been a time in the past in which your future was far from secure, and you didn't know which way the stock market was going to go. Was 100% equities the right strategy at the time? Only you could have answered that back then. No fair giving us an answer now, with 20-20 hindsight. Having won the game, you have both the willingness and ability to take risk going forward, but no need to do so. No one quibbles with Warren Buffet advocating 90% equities for h...
by boo-yah
Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Q about timing of electronic transfers
Replies: 2
Views: 589

Q about timing of electronic transfers

I've got a question about the timing of electronic transfers - who gets what when. I'm set up for automatic monthly contributions from my bank account to my Roth IRA at Fidelity, with the transfer date scheduled on the first of the month. However, last Friday (the 30th) I get an email from Fidelity saying that The Electronic Funds Transfer from your checking account ending in X in the amount of $Y was received on 10/30/15. Please check Portfolio Summary and select Balances for fund availability. I'm curious about this, as it doesn't show up in my bank account as officially withdrawn until the 1st, yet Fidelity says that the ETF "was received" - not just the request, but sounds like the actual money. It's not just because the 1st o...
by boo-yah
Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5250
Views: 906948

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I got curious after reading some of these replies and was surprised to find that with a 70/30 equivalent portfolio, I'm almost dead even at -0.1%. The reason is my big winners are TIAA Real estate (+6.2%) and TIAA Traditional (+2.8%). My big losers are emerging markets (FPMAX -11.5%) and my small cap index (TISBX -4.8%).
by boo-yah
Tue May 12, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice: Especially with TIAA Real Estate
Replies: 21
Views: 2583

Re: Portfolio Advice: Especially with TIAA Real Estate

I have 10% of my portfolio in TREA, and divvy it up 5% bonds/5% equities, as others have suggested. If your bonds are for stability, then it certainly reduces your volatility in the short term. However, the longer-term volatility can be much greater, much more equity-like, as we saw in 2008-9:

http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart ... FVUSA04B8Y

In the event of another crisis, due to it's lagging the real estate indices we will likely have warning (as we did in 2008), and there are some on this forum who have suggested that one shouldn't be in this fund unless you're aware of this and monitor it. While it is a unique asset class, it's perhaps not a simplification.
by boo-yah
Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What I learned at my mandatory employee 403(b) info meeting
Replies: 52
Views: 9734

Re: What I learned at my mandatory employee 403(b) info meet

retiredjg wrote:
texasdiver wrote:It almost makes me want to start my own White Coat Investor blog for teachers or go into investment advice on the side....
This would be a really good idea, even if you only aimed at your local school district at first. Word would get around. People do want information - they are just uninformed about where to find it and overwhelmed when they do find something.

I encourage you to give this some serious consideration.
Why not call it "The Whiteboard Investor"? Could be a very useful site.
by boo-yah
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Average E/R [Expense Ratio]
Replies: 49
Views: 11668

Re: Poll: Average E/R

My weighted ER is 0.21%, so if I take out my TIAA Real Estate it plummets to 0.12%. However, I have a significant amount in TIAA Traditional which technically doesn't cost anything.
by boo-yah
Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College savings costs / number
Replies: 120
Views: 10697

Re: College savings costs / number

The University of Maryland posts their historical tuition data on their website. Back in 1982 when I started there, tuition and fees totalled $1100. Using a CPI calculator, that is equivalent to $2600 today. Today, tuition and fees total $9400. One of the major factors for rising tuition costs in public universities is that fact that the level of state funding has dropped considerably in most places, and therefore costs have been shifted to tuition. I can't speak about Maryland, specifically, but in my state (and most others I am familiar with) the level of direct support form the state has dropped below 20% of the overall budget for the entire system. This is a very under-appreciated part of the college cost issue, the degree to which mos...
by boo-yah
Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for ideas for a romantic getaway
Replies: 31
Views: 4191

Re: Looking for ideas for a romantic getaway

For a real getaway, I recommend the Idaho Rocky Mountain Ranch, where we went for our 20th. Despite the name, it's not a cheesy dude ranch, but simply a wonderful resort in the spectacular setting of the Sawtooth Valley with their own private hot springs pool. You can be active if you'd like - fishing, hiking, rafting, biking, climbing, riding (they do have stables and offer dayrides), snowmobiling, XC skiing - or just hang out on the porch with your glass of wine and watch the light change on the mountains while they make your dinner.
by boo-yah
Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 48974

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Fund Name: Game of Unknowns

Long:
SPDC Speed Commerce
CHSP Chesapeake Lodging
ALIM Alimera Sciences

Short:
INGN Inogen
TG Tredegar
MDR McDermott Intl