Search found 474 matches

by pezblanco
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5148

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

So each day, each active trader has exactly the same expected (arithmetic mean) return as the passives, but the results are more dispersed, so the geometric mean is lower. Iterate this for many days, and an ever increasing majority of the active investors trail the market. This assumes that the por...
by pezblanco
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5148

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

(@ some comments further up) I am talking about a simple pure math model. You can always debate its applicability to the real world, but the math stands. Also the conclusion (most actives trail) does require some assumptions about the behavior of the actives: What I call "actives" are modeled like ...
by pezblanco
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel To Cuba - Tips
Replies: 17
Views: 1868

Re: Travel To Cuba - Tips

Favorite memory? Randomly walking the back streets of Trinidad (Cuba) and coming across a guy sitting on his front steps, wearing an Obama “Hope” t-shirt. I asked if I could take a photo of him and he asked for a dollar (which he got). This is why I hate Cuba. (It's completely personal. I go there ...
by pezblanco
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel To Cuba - Tips
Replies: 17
Views: 1868

Re: Travel To Cuba - Tips

Favorite memory? Randomly walking the back streets of Trinidad (Cuba) and coming across a guy sitting on his front steps, wearing an Obama “Hope” t-shirt. I asked if I could take a photo of him and he asked for a dollar (which he got). This is why I hate Cuba. (It's completely personal. I go there ...
by pezblanco
Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 117
Views: 10729

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

...But longevity? That's hard to get your head around. It helps, I find, to think longevity of *spouse* -- if your spouse is female and if you/ she have any long lived female relatives... It's not JUST longevity. It's also higher current income without stressing over premature depletion. Someone ca...
by pezblanco
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Combating Analysis Paralysis
Replies: 17
Views: 1939

Re: Combating Analysis Paralysis

You're planning on going from 750K to 1million in less than 4 years which implies a greater than 7 percent yearly rate of return. Given that we should be talking about real rates, that means that you need 7 percent real rate of return. While that happens all the time, it also is not unusual that it ...
by pezblanco
Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone ever tired of managing hair and consider shaving to go bald
Replies: 59
Views: 4436

Re: Anyone ever tired of managing hair and consider shaving to go bald

There are different bald looks, I think. One is the shaved head (Yul Brenner, Michael Jordan, etc etc). If you want it to look shaved all the time you have to keep on top of and shave every day or two depending. The other is the "close clippered head". You take it down as short as a set of "balding ...
by pezblanco
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying SS? How Long It Will Take for It to Pay Off?
Replies: 53
Views: 5340

Re: Delaying SS? How Long It Will Take for It to Pay Off?

This questions isn't that hard. Just tell us when you're going to die, and we'll put it in the calculator and solve for the best time for you to start SS. You need to know when those who are going to get survivor benefits are going to die also, right? At least for those with possible survivors to t...
by pezblanco
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage question
Replies: 20
Views: 1908

Re: Mortgage question

I have a 30 year fixed mortgage. Is it better to over the pay the mortgage every month by say $1,000 or save up larger sums of money to put in at one time? Thanks! It's better to invest the sums of money according to your asset allocation model until you have enough to completely pay off the mortga...
by pezblanco
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage question
Replies: 20
Views: 1908

Re: Mortgage question

I have a 30 year fixed mortgage. Is it better to over the pay the mortgage every month by say $1,000 or save up larger sums of money to put in at one time? Thanks! It's better to invest the sums of money according to your asset allocation model until you have enough to completely pay off the mortga...
by pezblanco
Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5648

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

So if you have 600K and you are adding to it 30K/year for 10 years, what sort of return do you need to double your money? Just doing a quick calculation, you only need a return on your money of 3.4%. I assume that you are talking about real rates (i.e. over and above the inflation rate) ... but anyw...
by pezblanco
Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would you pay this mortgage off?
Replies: 51
Views: 4459

Re: Would you pay this mortgage off?

What is your mix of stocks to bond? Overall are you trying for 60/40? If so, one way to go about this would be to invest 60% of new allocations into taxable into stocks and use the 40% of new bond money to pay off the negative bond of your mortgage (which would if you aren't itemizing give you a 4% ...
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

I've never seen a bear in the desert. In the Phoenix area we have coyotes, javalinas, an occasional wolf, rattle snakes (and a few other types), rats of all type, some huge, and far too many people. But bears?? The 110+ temps in the summer is not the right environment for bears. The high altitude d...
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

I live in Tahoe and we have bears in our yard about once a week. They are big clever animals who learn fast and are persistent. They always visit our yard on garbage day. They live right here with us so we have learned it takes special precautions to stop bear issues both with garbage, the house an...
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

MJW wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:36 pm
You could try waiting up for the bears and admonishing them when they arrive. Appeal to their sense of common decency.

:idea:
A hungry bear has no conscience. :D
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

Our total garbage is maybe 2 13 gal containers per week. The 96 gal garbage can size was chosen by the city ... its far larger than we need. I did and have checked with the forest service about the bear issue. One thing they recommend is no composting (no bird feeders, keeping outside grills closed ...
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

Right now I'm trying to find some plans to build a stout wooden box or maybe a small wood fenced enclosure???
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

Regarding the comment about "raccoons on steroids". I think that is a very apt description. In the upper midwest, I was used to dealing with raccoons and garbage issues ... hence my first attempt with bungee cords. But, seriously if you could see what they did to this very very tough garbage can ......
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Bears!!!

Some more information: 1) The municipal web site says no other cans allowed but I will raise the issue with them tomorrow when I talk to them about how to get another trash can. If they allowed me to get one, the one marketed by bearicuda looks good .... I don't know how much it costs. 2) I'm not su...
by pezblanco
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bears!!!
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Bears!!!

I've read that black bears are quite common in many places in the USA. I live at the edge of a national forest but still within the city limits (barely) of a city. My house is quite a ways from the street and you reach it by driving down a longish (150 feet or so) gravel driveway. The area around th...
by pezblanco
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking about moving to Madison, WI or Minneapolis, MN..Any advice?
Replies: 96
Views: 9536

Re: Thinking about moving to Madison, WI or Minneapolis, MN..Any advice?

Another concern would be the whole 'Minnesota Nice' stereotype is leaving me a bit uneasy as I don't know many people there. I moved from WI to Mpls and this is a real concern. It takes a very long time to make friends here and you really have to work at it. The culture here is quite insular compar...
by pezblanco
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring in Michigan (Ann Arbor)
Replies: 65
Views: 5223

Re: Retiring in Michigan (Ann Arbor)

If I had to choose between SoCal and AA .... I would choose AA in a heartbeat .... that said, there are many many many better options than either one of those to retire to. (In the upper Midwest, Madison and the Twin Cities are faaarrrrrrrr more fun and liveable than AA ) But really, I wouldn't cons...
by pezblanco
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Faroe Islands
Replies: 3
Views: 921

Re: Faroe Islands

Great article in the current New Yorker about the food and restaurant scene ...
by pezblanco
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in idea with SCV and leverage..
Replies: 23
Views: 2070

Re: in idea with SCV and leverage..

People who write about it, however, say that the criterion does not assume anything about your personal utility function, Consider the personal utility function where you have $1 and need $10m by Friday or you die. The Kelly criteria does not enter into it, you need to bet enough or failure is cert...
by pezblanco
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?
Replies: 67
Views: 5573

Re: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?

The common statement is that it's hot but it's a dry heat ... But it really isn't it. It used to be that the way the onset of the North American Monsoon was measured was when dew points hit a certain temperature. In the case of Tucson, it was 53 degrees. During the monsoon months of July, August, an...
by pezblanco
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Friendly Four Fund portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2334

Re: Factor Friendly Four Fund portfolio

In traditional BH philosophy, we take our risk on the equity side. Bonds are for peace of mind (and perhaps for some rebalancing). LT bonds don't perform that function well. As you apparently discovered, they back-test well. Especially over the last 10 years. Yeah, I didn't necessarily want to poke...
by pezblanco
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: June in Paris: What to (or not to) wear, see and do?
Replies: 53
Views: 3355

Re: June in Paris: What to (or not to) wear, see and do?

The standard issue uniform for an American .... Well, it's not something to worry about, is it!? Essentially every tourist in every foreign country looks like a tourist. It's part of the deal. +1 I don't understand the I'LL LOOK LIKE A TOURIST angst. Of course you will look like a tourist. You are ...
by pezblanco
Fri May 25, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rum and Summer Cocktails
Replies: 30
Views: 2292

Re: Rum and Summer Cocktails

My wife's favorite - and not to be confused with the blended ice smoothie rubbish we commonly associate with this kind of drink: Death & Co.’s Daiquiri Cocktail 2 oz White Rum (Flor de Cana Extra-Dry) 1 oz Lime Juice 1/2 oz Cane Syrup Shake all ingredients with ice, then strain into a coupe. Garnis...
by pezblanco
Tue May 22, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equal Weighting
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Equal Weighting

I take issue with your conclusion of the first blog post, that we should view the equal weighted portfolio as the "benchmark". The same issue comes up there ... which equal weighted portfolio are we talking about? That wasn't my conclusion, that was just a quote from the paper. :happy But to attemp...
by pezblanco
Tue May 22, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equal Weighting
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Equal Weighting

What are the thoughts on equal weighting ?I cant seem to find much on it . I wrote a longer blog entry about equal-weighting: https://medium.com/@justusjp/the-magic-of-equal-weighted-portfolios-dac58e1e1da0 including talking Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1/N Portfolio...
by pezblanco
Mon May 21, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirement in Europe
Replies: 3
Views: 939

Re: Early retirement in Europe

Hello to everyone, I'm Alex from the south of Europe, I'm looking for improving my retirement by investing or maybe reaching the dreamed financial independence. I'm 30 and I'm working as engineer since 26. I earn around 23000€ after taxes and no have debt or mortgage (my annual income has increased...
by pezblanco
Mon May 21, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equal Weighting
Replies: 14
Views: 1102

Re: Equal Weighting

I think that step one should be for you to understand what exactly the market is. Then when you propose something like this, you can backcheck what your proposed allocations are in comparison to what the world market would give you. You can come up with a amazing group of categories .... why don't y...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Baird fund as of March 31st has exposure to Puerto Rico bonds. I thought this was supposed to be the best quality muni fund out there? Mostly aaa, and aa? Illinois and Puerto Rico don’t mix? Edited. I think you have the wrong fund. It’s bmbix. I give up ... this one has a lot of Illinois bonds also...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Detroit was in big trouble without the pension issues. So what if there are some defaults? It’ll be a short term shock. The thousands of bonds that don’t default will keep paying. The market prices those risks in. It’s not.a black swan. I don't think that anyone has been raising that much alarm. No...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

Good point. It’s actively managed and has independent credit analysis. I think this is fear mongering. My int. Muni fund at vanguard holds thousands of investment grade bonds. I don’t think multiple municipal defaults will have much of an effect on returns for long term investors. I personally don’...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

golfCaddy wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:50 pm
How does anyone come up with a meaningful default risk for a state? There's only been one state that defaulted on its bonds since the civil war era.
That's the problem with rare events ... they are hard to estimate.
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

This link has a list of percentages of the various Vanguard bond funds and their state muni holding by percentage: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ASBST_012018.pdf For example, the Intermediate Term fund has 6.52% of it's assets in Illinois bonds .... It's the type of bonds that matter. Let's say the ...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

This link has a list of percentages of the various Vanguard bond funds and their state muni holding by percentage: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ASBST_012018.pdf For example, the Intermediate Term fund has 6.52% of it's assets in Illinois bonds .... It's the type of bonds that matter. Let's say the ...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

This link has a list of percentages of the various Vanguard bond funds and their state muni holding by percentage: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ASBST_012018.pdf For example, the Intermediate Term fund has 6.52% of it's assets in Illinois bonds .... It's the type of bonds that matter. Let's say the ...
by pezblanco
Sat May 12, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bondholders vs. pensions
Replies: 50
Views: 3584

Re: Muni bondholders vs. pensions

This link has a list of percentages of the various Vanguard bond funds and their state muni holding by percentage:

https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ASBST_012018.pdf

For example, the Intermediate Term fund has 6.52% of it's assets in Illinois bonds ....
by pezblanco
Wed May 09, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do we spend too much on food?
Replies: 71
Views: 7009

Re: Do we spend too much on food?

2 adults and one baby eating baby foods spends $300 a month. My wife stays home with our baby so she is able to go to different stores for different items where they are priced better. Alcohol is purchased out of our entertainment budget as it isn't necessary to a healthy lifestyle. I hunt successf...
by pezblanco
Mon May 07, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value
Replies: 12
Views: 2198

Re: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value

In my 401k I am fortunate enough to have a few Vanguard funds on offering - enough to build a portfolio I'm happy with. Right now my equities are in VFIAX and VGTSX. I don't have Vanguard small cap value offered as an option, but I DO have Vanguard small cap blend - VSMAX. Given the fairly consiste...
by pezblanco
Mon May 07, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor
Replies: 14
Views: 1002

Re: New Investor

I'm not sure what your ages are but I'm assuming something like in your 30"s? I think that with your future pensions and your ages that you would be be perfectly justified if you can withstand the volatility of going 100% stocks. Two excellent funds to consider would be Vanguard's Total Stock Market...
by pezblanco
Sun May 06, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does it make sense to rent as a retiree?
Replies: 83
Views: 9761

Re: Does it make sense to rent as a retiree?

Another factor would be whether you can rent the type of home you are looking for in your desired location. If neighbors on all sides and shared laundry doesn't bother you renting will be easy to fo d a good deal but if you want to live in a wooded lot with nobody for miles around so you can shoot ...
by pezblanco
Sat May 05, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4580

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see how paying off a mortgage has any connection with balancing a stock-heavy portfolio. Would you end up with no mortgage plus 100% stocks? Is that "balance"? It is if you think of debt as a negative bond. Having stocks and a mortgage w no bonds is, finan...
by pezblanco
Sat May 05, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4580

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

could you look at putting extra cash toward your mortgage as a way to balance a stock heavy portfolio? Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see how paying off a mortgage has any connection with balancing a stock-heavy portfolio. Would you end up with no mortgage plus 100% stocks? Is that "bal...
by pezblanco
Sat May 05, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4580

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

So let's talk examples, as you want to include things in the asset allocation. A young person is starting out, has a good job. She also bought a house that has 40k equity from the down-payment, and a loan of 160k. She can save exactly enough to invest 18.5k in 401(k) and $5500 in Roth. She decides ...
by pezblanco
Sat May 05, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4580

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

My dear Lemongrab ... your cash flows (positive and/or negative) have absolutely no impact on your asset allocation???? Really??? Why would it? Do you count your income from the job as part of your asset allocation? Do we even have the same definition of "asset allocation"? For me that's allocation...
by pezblanco
Sat May 05, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4580

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

Pro Arguments: 1) If you aren't itemizing, paying off the mortgage is the same as a guaranteed TAX-FREE 3% bond over the span of the mortgage. In today's rate environment, that is pretty darn good. Vanguard's tax-exempt intermediate term bond fund is currently 2.42% (and you have to pay state taxes ...