Search found 625 matches

by pezblanco
Tue May 19, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 19585

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

After reading this thread I realize I live in a completely different world than most posters on this thread. Someone posted they paid over $15k each for a 2 bicycles, and some posted paying thousands of dollars for a horse. I bought a bicycle for $25 at a flea market recently. Now granted I don't r...
by pezblanco
Tue May 19, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 19585

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

For the family: Disney. Usually at least two trips a year(Although I'm fully on board for the Food and Wine Festival), usually with a decent amount of add-ons. Travel: Aside from the Disney trips, we usually also have 2-3 other trips throughout the year, usually at least one being an international ...
by pezblanco
Fri May 15, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flag Pole Light
Replies: 16
Views: 1136

Re: Flag Pole Light

galawdawg wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:43 pm
Even the model Dark Sky ordinance permits 1,260 lumens of directional landscape lighting in residential areas. And lighting for flags is generally exempt.
I wasn't saying it was illegal.
by pezblanco
Fri May 15, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flag Pole Light
Replies: 16
Views: 1136

Re: Flag Pole Light

Please look up why there are Dark Sky ordinances. It isn't just a matter of bothering your neighbors ... light pollution messes up bird migration and many other aspects of the natural world.
by pezblanco
Sun May 10, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3008

Re: BJJ -martial art

I've done MMA for 9 years and am in my 50s. It is getting harder to keep up with the guys in their thirties. COVID may have ended my MMA career. But my school mostly does striking (boxing, Muay Thai) and grappling practice is only to learn to defend against semi-trained BJJ guys. I've heard mostly ...
by pezblanco
Sun May 10, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3008

Re: BJJ -martial art

BJJ is I think quite different from most martial arts. It is a very practical discipline that emphasizes full on combat within a set of rules (no striking, no biting, no eye gouging etc... One of my kids did Krav Maga, and if you want practical, holy smokes. :shock: No disrespect, but KM doesn't ha...
by pezblanco
Sun May 10, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4396
Views: 1252503

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I enjoyed Eight Perfect Murders by Peter Swanson. In some ways an homage to the great detective stories of the past. I give it a 4/5. I got about halfway through You Are Not Alone and then abandoned it ... well written but just too disturbing for me ... I"m very sensitive to certain things and this ...
by pezblanco
Sun May 10, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3008

Re: BJJ -martial art

BJJ is I think quite different from most martial arts. It is a very practical discipline that emphasizes full on combat within a set of rules (no striking, no biting, no eye gouging etc... for beginners they usually add no leg or knee type submissions); but within that set of rules you are doing you...
by pezblanco
Thu May 07, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 30602

Re: My theory about FIRE

When I talk about the most innovative work, I'm talking about people who are getting patents in their name, publishing in peer reviewed journals, or being named IEEE fellows. I'm not referring to people writing software to implement an algorithm someone else developed. On the original law/STEM comp...
by pezblanco
Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 5456
Views: 1351019

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

cheese_breath wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:08 pm
Sharpe's Challenge has been viewed.

Next and last is Sharpe's Peril
Thank God!
by pezblanco
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4396
Views: 1252503

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I just finished The Kingdom of Nauvoo by B. Park. It is the story of the Mormon's (the saints) last stop in western Illinois before making their final trek to Utah. It is the place where the outraged citizenry murdered Joseph Smith, the Prophet who found the golden tablets (which related among other...
by pezblanco
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4396
Views: 1252503

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Race Of Aces", by John R. Bruning (Hachette Books 2020). "Race" is a superb accounting of our country's air war against the Japanese onslaught in the South Pacific. Bruning centers his history around those US fighter pilots who became multiple aces (a "ace" is a fighter pilot who has shot down 5 e...
by pezblanco
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Denatured Ethyl Alcohol for Hand Sanitizer
Replies: 9
Views: 652

Denatured Ethyl Alcohol for Hand Sanitizer

A friend gave me a liter of 95% denatured ethyl alcohol (denatured with isopropyl and methyl alcohols). He said that he and his family use it instead of isopropyl. The label says that it is labratory grade but it also has warnings about "toxic if in contact with skin". That doesn't sound too good fo...
by pezblanco
Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Biomedical Engineering School Matter?
Replies: 94
Views: 6330

Re: Does Biomedical Engineering School Matter?

Close family member of mine has a biomedical engineering degree from a relatively prestigious institution. He found the job prospects and even grad school opportunities to be a lot worse than people with mechanical or electrical engineering degrees. I'm sure there will be much good advice given in ...
by pezblanco
Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: HS Latin or Spanish/ASL?
Replies: 63
Views: 2473

Re: HS Latin or Spanish/ASL?

If your child is doing the "usual" sort of Spanish instruction taught in the USA, after 3 years they know very very little Spanish. Very often, for example, they won't even begin to cover the subjunctive mood until the 4th year of a high school sequence. Latin is a dead language and will not be part...
by pezblanco
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4973
Views: 431756

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So lets say I have 1,000,000 in a taxable all in equities and 100,000 in a roth. Why wouldn’t I use UPRO/TMF to maximize returns from my Roth? It seems like only using TMF would result in a lot lower returns? I know you said that maximizing ROI isn’t the only thing to want but I though that was the...
by pezblanco
Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4973
Views: 431756

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

An allocation of 100% UPRO maximizes the return for a risk neutral investor. If you really wanted to maximize the ROI in your Roth, you wouldn't allocate anything to TMF. I don't think that it maximizes the exponential rate of growth of the portfolio as in the Kelly criterion. 3 times leverage is t...
by pezblanco
Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 123649

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't know why Market Timer made his post (it goes against most of our fundamental philosophies about timing markets) .... All I know is that looking at the vast majority of his comments on this forum, he is easily one of the very brightest and knowledgeable persons on BH. I wouldn't be so quick t...
by pezblanco
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finalizing My (Conservative) Decision on Risk
Replies: 7
Views: 810

Re: Finalizing My (Conservative) Decision on Risk

You didn't give any real numbers on how much you need to realize to make your number. If you're looking at historical bond returns, there are many indicators that you might not get those sorts of returns in the future. 30/70 is more what I would think someone that has made their number amply and is ...
by pezblanco
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Income in retirement from stocks/mutual funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2328

Re: Income in retirement from stocks/mutual funds

Lots of discussion on this ... basically there are two camps the dividend cultists and the total return smart money ... you might be able to guess which side of the divide I fall in. Just put your money into a reasonable Total Stock Market/Total World Stock Market Fund and create your own dividends ...
by pezblanco
Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70
Replies: 332
Views: 31330

Re: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70

I have seen a lot of discussion about delaying taking Social Security until age 70. If you assume that you are going to live to be 85 or greater, the typical thing I have seen is to add up all your payments from 62 to 85 and compare that to all your payments from 70 to 85. Generally, taking it at 7...
by pezblanco
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No More Posts Of Larry Swedroe Essays [by Random Walker]
Replies: 64
Views: 7774

Re: No More Posts Of Larry Swedroe Essays

This is a very very sad disgraceful decision. It's too bad that a few influential people have been able to stifle discussion that challenges their "belief system". But if you own the forum, you get to call the tune .... The place to win a discussion is in the marketplace of ideas, of intellectual gi...
by pezblanco
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing bonds in tax advantaged versus taxable accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 1198

Re: Investing bonds in tax advantaged versus taxable accounts

You should read "Bonds in Taxable" by the White Coat Investor. As bond rates get low, the preference will shift to putting your bonds in the taxable account. If you're in a high marginal tax regime, you can consider munis which are federal tax free and depending on your state of residence can even b...
by pezblanco
Fri May 31, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Delay Social Security?
Replies: 35
Views: 3781

Re: Delay Social Security?

The Wizard wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 8:01 pm
People are not reading/answering the OP's question.
The question is: When does it NOT make sense to delay SS?
If you answer why "Not A" completely, then you have also logically answered why "A" completely.
by pezblanco
Fri May 31, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Delay Social Security?
Replies: 35
Views: 3781

Re: Delay Social Security?

The main reason to delay is longevity risk. If yo die at the “normal” age it doesn’t matter when you claim, but if you live a long life you end up with more. Use the open social security calculator on advanced to check different claiming ages. https://opensocialsecurity.com/ I think that I read onc...
by pezblanco
Fri May 31, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tequila and Magaritas
Replies: 122
Views: 15821

Re: Tequila and Magaritas

Lots of clueless comments so far in this thread. :D As an inhabitant of a part of the country where margaritas are a way of life .... Recipe for an high quality margarita: 1) slice a lime in half 2) wet rim of glass with lime and touch to the sal gorda (rock salt) (half rim ... full rim whatever yo...
by pezblanco
Fri May 31, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Delay Social Security?
Replies: 35
Views: 3781

Re: Delay Social Security?

Use the search feature but there are tens of threads discussing this in general. You don't give enough data for your particular case to give specific advice. In general, SS is the best annuity that you'll get a chance at. If you are married and your spouse will receive your survivor benefit then in ...
by pezblanco
Thu May 23, 2019 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to "lie" with Personal Finance
Replies: 28
Views: 5451

Re: How to "lie" with Personal Finance

“Do not trust any statistic you did not fake yourself” (Winston Churchill) I had not come across that Churchill quote before. It's not actually a Churchill quote. Perhaps that's why I hadn't run across it before! In any case, don't leave us hanging. What's the true attribution? The usual translatio...
by pezblanco
Thu May 16, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 39
Views: 6138

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

Nice explanation. Thank you.

So, the extra that you get over the SEC yield is called the "roll yield", I'm thinking.
by pezblanco
Sat May 04, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value
Replies: 37
Views: 6376

Re: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value

In my 401k I am fortunate enough to have a few Vanguard funds on offering - enough to build a portfolio I'm happy with. Right now my equities are in VFIAX and VGTSX. I don't have Vanguard small cap value offered as an option, but I DO have Vanguard small cap blend - VSMAX. Given the fairly consiste...
by pezblanco
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell Home Now or Wait? Relocating with Spouse
Replies: 14
Views: 1139

Re: Sell Home Now or Wait? Relocating with Spouse

This is a complicated question with a lot of weighting towards the relationship health. Is this the first you and your fiancée will be in a long distance relationship for an extended time? It’s something you have to consider. 1) Which partner has the house in their name? Assuming you own the house ...
by pezblanco
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing on leverage?
Replies: 31
Views: 2152

Re: Indexing on leverage?

People on this forum give all sorts of nuanced answers to this question and miss the absolutely critical point. Equity margin is callable. This means if stocks drop, you will have to put up more cash immediately. Where will this cash come from? If you don't have the cash, your position is immediate...
by pezblanco
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing on leverage?
Replies: 31
Views: 2152

Re: Indexing on leverage?

The leveraged SPDRs are peculiar entities. When I researched getting into them, they require entering and exiting at certain points in the day, at which point a 2x or 3x leverage on an index could be done. But these do not grow at 2x or 3x the growth rate of the SP500 as a general index. Not sure w...
by pezblanco
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing on leverage?
Replies: 31
Views: 2152

Re: Indexing on leverage?

People on this forum give all sorts of nuanced answers to this question and miss the absolutely critical point. Equity margin is callable. This means if stocks drop, you will have to put up more cash immediately. Where will this cash come from? If you don't have the cash, your position is immediate...
by pezblanco
Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing on leverage?
Replies: 31
Views: 2152

Re: Indexing on leverage?

Your leveraged portfolio has to do well enough to cover the cost of borrowing and the increased risk. Individuals cannot borrow at the T bill rate, so that cost would be substantial. You need to have enough liquidity to survive steep market drops, or sell out during those drops to satisfy the margi...
by pezblanco
Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing on leverage?
Replies: 31
Views: 2152

Re: Indexing on leverage?

What's the general consensus of doing this? Since over the long term the index should go up wouldn't it be better to buy more using leverage? Is it that much different to buying a house with a mortgage.. (apart from possible margin calls) Aye, therein lies the rub. The market can go the wrong way l...
by pezblanco
Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I place bonds in my IRA or Roth IRA
Replies: 25
Views: 2301

Re: Should I place bonds in my IRA or Roth IRA

I don't think it really matters. Let x be your income tax bracket when you withdraw (I realize that this may not be known but the OP will have a better idea than us ... but anyway if your income tax backet is 22% then x = .22). So, suppose the amount of money in the Roth is M dollars. That money pla...
by pezblanco
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3818

Re: When to add bonds?

If you are willing to be 100% stocks (which I think is fine at your age), you might also want to consider being more than 100% stocks ... i.e. a judicious use of leverage. Look at some of the discussions involving Life Cycle Investing on the site. The book by Ayres and Nalebuff is a good intro to so...
by pezblanco
Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there any reason to buy a short term bond index versus long term one?
Replies: 26
Views: 2723

Re: Is there any reason to buy a short term bond index versus long term one?

If you hold a bond fund for its duration, or a bond to maturity, you will get your principal back plus the interest you signed up for. If you hold the bond fund for its duration, you will be more or less indifferent to interest rate changes that occurred during the holding period. This is false ......
by pezblanco
Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there any reason to buy a short term bond index versus long term one?
Replies: 26
Views: 2723

Re: Is there any reason to buy a short term bond index versus long term one?

If you hold a bond fund for its duration, or a bond to maturity, you will get your principal back plus the interest you signed up for. If you hold the bond fund for its duration, you will be more or less indifferent to interest rate changes that occurred during the holding period. This is false ......
by pezblanco
Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraging Stock/Bond Portfolios and the Kelly Criterion
Replies: 19
Views: 1731

Re: Leveraging Stock/Bond Portfolios and the Kelly Criterion

The “18% CAGR” was from 1982-present (actually 20%). If this is 50 years then that explains the discrepancy alone. Hedge’s portfolio is as much a bet that rates won’t go straight up again as anything, but given the upside potential, your distribution doesn’t look so scary. Yes, I think when I wrote...
by pezblanco
Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraging Stock/Bond Portfolios and the Kelly Criterion
Replies: 19
Views: 1731

Re: Leveraging Stock/Bond Portfolios and the Kelly Criterion

The “18% CAGR” was from 1982-present (actually 20%). If this is 50 years then that explains the discrepancy alone. Hedge’s portfolio is as much a bet that rates won’t go straight up again as anything, but given the upside potential, your distribution doesn’t look so scary. Yes, I think when I wrote...
by pezblanco
Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraging Stock/Bond Portfolios and the Kelly Criterion
Replies: 19
Views: 1731

Re: Leveraging Stock/Bond Portfolios and the Kelly Criterion

Hi Pez Thanks for the analysis. I read Fortune Formula but still have not been able to fully grasp the Kelly criterion. Your rolling 10 year dispersion are based on which years? From 1967 to 201 7 Also how can one use the Kelly criterion to decide what percentage of assets to assign to a leveraged ...
by pezblanco
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 4503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

Might read my factor book which talks about these things Larry I had a series of PMs with Larry about a previous thread. In those messages he also suggest I buy his "factor book". Which I plan on not doing. Ignorance is bliss ... I recommend instead Andrew Ang's book, much better imo. :greedy I'll ...
by pezblanco
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 4503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

Might read my factor book which talks about these things Larry I had a series of PMs with Larry about a previous thread. In those messages he also suggest I buy his "factor book". Which I plan on not doing. Ignorance is bliss ... Of course I am ignorant and it is why I had a long 1-on-1 interaction...
by pezblanco
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 4503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:12 pm
pezblanco wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:22 am
Might read my factor book which talks about these things
Larry
I had a series of PMs with Larry about a previous thread. In those messages he also suggest I buy his "factor book". Which I plan on not doing.
Ignorance is bliss ...
by pezblanco
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 4503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

I wish that Larry had made some comment on the recent article suggesting that there isn't a size effect at all. It is so prominent that I have to believe he must be aware of it: Fact, Fiction, and The Size Effect by Alquist et al (two AQR researchers and a Yale professor) https://poseidon01.ssrn.co...
by pezblanco
Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 4503

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

I wish that Larry had made some comment on the recent article suggesting that there isn't a size effect at all. It is so prominent that I have to believe he must be aware of it: Fact, Fiction, and The Size Effect by Alquist et al (two AQR researchers and a Yale professor) https://poseidon01.ssrn.com...
by pezblanco
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On Leverage
Replies: 184
Views: 17495

Re: On Leverage

Yes. But in this thread, we've been considering setting "reasonable" amounts of leverage for long term buy/hold. So, the leverage values of interest are from 1 to 3 more or less .... The Kelly criterion would be telling us something in the range of 1.2 to 1.5 so 21.36 is way out of the orbit of wha...
by pezblanco
Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On Leverage
Replies: 184
Views: 17495

Re: On Leverage

Just use futures. Simpler and cheaper. The main problem for small retail investors I think is the size of the contract. An e-mini 500 contract is 141K today. If you want a leverage of 1.5 say, then you need to come up with around 91K. So, as the market rises and falls, it's hard to reset your lever...