Search found 1028 matches

by galeno
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson
Replies: 13
Views: 2051

Re: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson

The AWR from our $40/$60 portfolio is 3.5%. If our stocks go down by 50% our bonds should go up by at least 5% ($20/$63) so our port should only lose 15%. Our AWR goes to 4.1%. I'll rebalance the port and keep taking our retirement withdrawals.
by galeno
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson
Replies: 13
Views: 2051

Re: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson

It's important to have a rebalancing strategy and to execute it religiously.

1. Pick an annual rebalancing date and only rebalance then.

2. Use the 5% rule meaning if any major asset (equities, bonds, or cash) is out of balance by 5% or more you rebalance.
by galeno
Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK expat, a global portfolio attempt
Replies: 4
Views: 476

Re: UK expat, a global portfolio attempt

1. 75% VWRL + 25% VNDB

2. 75% VWRL + 25% VAF
by galeno
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what % return do you use?
Replies: 62
Views: 4060

Re: what % return do you use?

I expect a nominal CAGR = 3.8% for our 40/60 portfolio.
by galeno
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 3829

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

For us (non-USA domiciled Bogleheads with no USA tax treaty using Ireland denominated ETFs) USA domiciled equities are more expensive because of the 15% dividend tax. Our dividend tax for non-USA developed country equities is 7.5% and for EM equities is 10.8%. For a USA domiciled investor it's the o...
by galeno
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 5641

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

We keep "our age in FI". Conservative allocation. 40/60. We can withstand a bad bear market and lose 15% of port. My problem is that I'll want to seriously over-rebalance to 60/40 if that happens. I'll resist the temptation.
by galeno
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?
Replies: 25
Views: 2127

Re: Are we taking too much risk with Bonds in our AA?

From what I've read the stable value election in a 401K is usually the best choice for bonds.
by galeno
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8305

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I love the Rick Ferri AA for retirees. Currently we have 40% all world equity + 20% corp bonds + 20% US treasuries + 15% TIPS + 5% CASH. Both wife and I are 60 years old. Our plan is to reduce equity over the next 10 years so when we're 70 our port will look the same except when we are at 30% equiti...
by galeno
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Return Assumptions over Next 15 years
Replies: 13
Views: 1157

Re: Return Assumptions over Next 15 years

We hold a 40/60 port. We expect 4% CAGR from our equities and 2% from our FI. So the expected CAGR for our port = 3.6%. We are retired and spend 3.5% of port per year. Inflation = 2.0%. ER = 0.18%. Taxes = 0.09%. Other port expenses = 0.01%. For our portfolio to just tread water we need a CAGR = 5.9...
by galeno
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8305

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

If you are worried that stocks values are too high why don't you go to a conservative posture of 55/45 (your age in FI)? Then when the bottom falls out of the stock market you can buy additional stocks. And if these expensive equities keep climbing "the wall of worry" you'll participate in the upsid...
by galeno
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1239

Re: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs

With ANY USA domiciled equity ETF you will pay a 15% USA-NRA tax on all interest and dividend income on ALL USA domiciled securities in the ETF. On any non-USA securities in the ETF you will pay 15% ON TOP OF any interest or dividend tax that the non-USA domicile will put on them. Do the math correc...
by galeno
Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a Vanguard account as a foreigner with a U.S. address?
Replies: 9
Views: 1116

Re: Opening a Vanguard account as a foreigner with a U.S. address?

We are USA-NRAs. We bought and held USA domiciled ETFs for about 10 years. And paid the outrageous USA-NRA interest and dividend income tax of >30%.
by galeno
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1239

Re: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs

Last year we paid approximately 10% taxes on VWRD's dividend income. Our bond interest income (3 different bond ETFs) came thru with 0% taxes.

Remember. The 15% dividend income tax is ONLY on the USA part of VWRD. The non-USA developed part charged us 7.5% and the EM part charged us 11.2%.
by galeno
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a Vanguard account as a foreigner with a U.S. address?
Replies: 9
Views: 1116

Re: Opening a Vanguard account as a foreigner with a U.S. address?

USA domiciled broker IB (Interactive Brokers) has branches in almost every country. You can use USA domiciled assets or assets domiciled in other countries in your portfolio.

IB is a blessing for USA-NRA Bogleheads.
by galeno
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1239

Re: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs

I recommend holding bonds in the dominant regional currency. In the OP's case I'd recommend EUROs.
by galeno
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs as "pseudo diversification"
Replies: 44
Views: 3789

Re: REITs as "pseudo diversification"

I don't use REITs but I agree with WCI. They can and do diversify against equities.
by galeno
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1239

Re: 3 fund portfolio for non US citizen with no-commision TD ETFs

Talk to a local CPA or tax attorney. Once you get over the $60K threshold you should probably form some type of vehicle (IBC, LLC, trust, etc) to hold your USA domiciled ETFs. That way you get the benefit of cheaper USA domiciled assets and protection against the USA's very drastic inheritance laws ...
by galeno
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard for non-resident aliens
Replies: 22
Views: 1248

Re: Vanguard for non-resident aliens

My first choice for you would be IB (Interactive Brokers). Second would be Schwab. Both will take you and don't really care about your residency status. If you're a USA person you'll be in their USA classification. If you're non-USA you'll be in their non-USA classification. I have an USAmerican fri...
by galeno
Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?
Replies: 37
Views: 10144

Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

1. Will Ireland Vanguard offer a bond ETF that's equivalent to USA Vanguard's BND anytime soon?

2. When will Ireland Vanguard's FTSE all world equity ETF (VWRD) add China "A" shares to the index?

3. When will Ireland Vanguard add a small cap equity ETF to its menu?
by galeno
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard for non-resident aliens
Replies: 22
Views: 1248

Re: Vanguard for non-resident aliens

Best: Use IB (Interactive Brokers). They handle USA-NRAs as well as US persons. Second best: Schwab.
by galeno
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interactive Brokers 2FA
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Interactive Brokers 2FA

We got handed one card. Like I said. It's a pain but I'm in favor. I'm always paranoid that our account could be hacked. Hopefully this just makes it a bit more difficult for the hackers. Do you have multiple of the Digital Security Cards? Linked to one account? Have you ever needed to get one repla...
by galeno
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interactive Brokers 2FA
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Interactive Brokers 2FA

It's a pain but it's an extra layer of security.
by galeno
Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 6021

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

Before 2006 our 80% equity allocation held 12-16 stocks. We screened for smaller stocks which were cheap, growing, profitable, good financials, and momentum.
by galeno
Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 6021

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

When we first started indexing in 2006 we tilted our equity portfolio slightly toward smaller, non-USA, and EM. By the end of 2013 we had lost to an all USA equity port.

We now simply hold a FTSE all world equity index ETF and take whatever the world equity market is willing to give us.
by galeno
Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Worry About US Estate Tax for Non-Resident Aliens
Replies: 25
Views: 1985

Re: Why Worry About US Estate Tax for Non-Resident Aliens

Interest income from our Ireland domiciled bond ETFs (USA treasuries, USA corps, and USA TIPS) comes thru tax free.

Dividend income from USA equities gets taxed at 15%. Non-USA dividends are taxed at 7.5%. EM dividends pay 10.8%.
by galeno
Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-US citizen with US Brokers: Estate Tax risk?
Replies: 67
Views: 18293

Re: Non-US citizen with US Brokers: Estate Tax risk?

Our Costa Rican attorney set up the Panamanian IBC for us via one of his lawyer colleagues in Panama. We pay him an annual fee and he takes care of all the details.
by galeno
Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Worry About US Estate Tax for Non-Resident Aliens
Replies: 25
Views: 1985

Re: Why Worry About US Estate Tax for Non-Resident Aliens

For our situation (30% USA-NRA dividend tax on all interest and dividend income generated by the ETFs), using Ireland domiciled ETFs is CHEAPER than using USA domiciled ones. Back to basics says TER = ER + TR. Ireland domiciled ETFs have higher ERs but more than make it up on the TR. The USA taxes a...
by galeno
Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Italian Investor (Ireland Based) - Lazy Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1299

Re: Italian Investor (Ireland Based) - Lazy Portfolio

If you go 60/10/30 you would be doubling the FTSE all world allocation to EM. Instead go 65/5/30 and you'll be at par with the index.
Thesaints wrote:Are you doubling down on EM ? Why ?
As bonds are concerned, you might be able to do better by purchasing italian issues directly.
by galeno
Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Italian Investor (Ireland Based) - Lazy Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1299

Re: Italian Investor (Ireland Based) - Lazy Portfolio

I like it. My only MINOR suggestion would be to go 50/10/30. It's easier to think in units of 5% or 10% vs 7%.
by galeno
Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NON-US (Ireland) ETFs - Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold Porfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 13535

Re: NON-US (Ireland) ETFs - Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold Porfolio

Read the wikis. Search bogleheads. In short. Taxes.

SavageBrother wrote:
galeno wrote:100% VWRD. Simple, cheap, and well diversified. Non-USA investors should avoid USA domiciled funds.


Why?
by galeno
Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NON-US (Ireland) ETFs - Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold Porfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 13535

Re: NON-US (Ireland) ETFs - Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold Porfolio

Let me save you the pain and agony. Don't slice and dice. Use 2 or 3 ETFs and be done with it.
by galeno
Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 7556

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

I like a mechanical approach.

Annual port expenses = 0.5%. Subtract them from SWR = 4.0%.

START AWR = 3.5%. FLOOR = 2.5%. ROOF = 5.5%.

When AWR hits FLOOR = 3.5% give self a raise to START AWR = 3.5%.

When AWR hits ROOF = 5.5% cut expenses.

Current AWR = 2.7%. Almost ready for a raise!
by galeno
Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Add TIPS (VAIPX) to Bond Allocation?
Replies: 8
Views: 1248

Re: Add TIPS (VAIPX) to Bond Allocation?

We keep 25% of our FI allocation (15% of port) in TIPS.
by galeno
Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)
Replies: 48
Views: 6876

Re: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)

I bought VDTY via IB using a limit order. I bought very close to the "ask". I started at "ask" and increased the offer by $0.01 until it cleared. It took about 20 minutes to buy all the shares I wanted. The spread was minimal. Next year I'll note the percentage between bid and as...
by galeno
Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)
Replies: 48
Views: 6876

Re: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)

It's just so much easier to just buy, hold, and rebalance VDTY. The ER=0.12%. It appears that 100% of the interest income passes to the investor (no dividend tax) with bond ETFs. At least that's what happened with our SUAG. It's a nice portfolio but I would hold all treasuries directly through a US ...
by galeno
Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)
Replies: 48
Views: 6876

Re: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)

If you want international exposure then you should go 100% VWRD. You do realize, however, that this is a discussion about which color sprinkles are better: rainbow vs chocolate. As an USA-NRA I prefer the rainbow sprinkles (VWRD). USAmerican persons John Bogle and Warren Buffet say the the cheaper o...
by galeno
Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)
Replies: 48
Views: 6876

Re: Live off portfolio NOW (non US)

I like your FI allocation. Regarding equities you should define what type of Boglehead investor you are. Home biased USAmerican? Or do you think 0.2% extra cost is worth diversifying outside of just USA equities? VUSA will cost you 0.36% per year. VWRD will cost you 0.57% per year. As of 30, Jan 201...
by galeno
Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk Averse Retirement Planning
Replies: 6
Views: 895

Re: Risk Averse Retirement Planning

A conservative (age in FI) retirement portfolio has enough equities to deal with "deep risk" (USD inflation). And enough fixed income (FI) so that "shallow risk" (portfolio volatility) is not an issue. Eat well and sleep well is what you'll get with a conservative asset allocation.
by galeno
Wed Mar 08, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk Averse Retirement Planning
Replies: 6
Views: 895

Re: Risk Averse Retirement Planning

I advise "age in bonds" for the conservative investor.
by galeno
Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7122

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

There is a certain brutal simplicity in holding 100% equities. I don't want or need the volatility. Stress causes heart attacks and strokes.
by galeno
Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7122

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

We started Jan 2008 at 60/40. In Jan 2009 we OVER-rebalanced to 70/30. In Jan 2013 we went back to 60/40. We are presently at 40/60.
by galeno
Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7122

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

"I assume by the way that market is some combination of stocks and bonds according to whatever AA one has chosen. Which means, what exactly... that you should have 5 years worth of expenses sitting in risk free treasuries?" Market means risky assets. Risky assets mean those with GSD greate...
by galeno
Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trouble with AA
Replies: 5
Views: 707

Re: Trouble with AA

KISS. Start with a conservative "age in bonds" portfolio. For you 70/30. 70% VT + 30% BND is my recommendation. Invest 20% of your gross monthly income into it. Fill your retirement accounts first. Then your taxable. Keep your bonds in your retirement accounts. Decrease equity allocation b...
by galeno
Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 672

Re: Forecasting inflation

I put 25% of our FI allocation into a TIPS ETF last month. With 60% in FI that's 15% of port.
by galeno
Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7122

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

For us "age in bonds" means a 40/60 portfolio. Both of us will be 60 this year. 4.0% AWR = 15 years of living expenses in FI. Portfolio success rate (30 yr) = 88%. To have 20 years of living expenses in FI an initial AWR = 3.0% is needed. Portfolio success rate (30 yr) = 100%. In fact, an ...
by galeno
Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7122

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

"Assume the market could crash tomorrow 50% and stay down 5-10 years." Start $40/$60=$100. Initial AWR = 4.0%. 15 yr living expenses in FI. Stock market declines 50%. Now $20/$65=$85. Rebalance to $34/$51=$85. Now AWR = 4.7%. Now 13 yr living expenses in FI. You take your AWR living expens...
by galeno
Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costs vs diversification in mutual funds - which is more important?
Replies: 21
Views: 1781

Re: Costs vs diversification in mutual funds - which is more important?

Much better! I'd dump the low volatility fund and put it into the global index. 60 % - KLP AksjeGlobal indeks V (global index fund, 0.2 % fee) 10 % - KLP AksjeGlobal LavBeta I (global low volatility fund, 0.27 % fee) 10 % - KLP AksjeFremvoksende Markeder Indeks II (Emerging Market index fund, 0,30 %...
by galeno
Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7122

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

If you refer to "over-rebalancing" do 0.1% for every 1% decline.

E.g. if your 60% stock allocation gets cut in half with a 50% bear market, you would over rebalance to 65% and ride it back up.

How far to ride it back up is the question.