Search found 1846 matches

by galeno
Mon May 25, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1530

Re: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market

The nominal yield of our 50% FI allocation = 1.25%.
40% US Treas + 40% Corps + 10% TIPs + 10% CASH.

The 3 yr CAGR of USA CPI = 2.04%. The 10 yr CAGR = 1.65%.

It's sad.
by galeno
Mon May 25, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time until money doubles
Replies: 26
Views: 2456

Re: Time until money doubles

Our port's expected real CAGR = 2.0%. So 23.45 yr.
by galeno
Mon May 25, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 299
Views: 20066

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Get ready to enter into a new chapter in your life. It WILL be challenging. You are financially prepared. That's good.
by galeno
Mon May 25, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice
Replies: 14
Views: 1038

Re: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice

Good. Keep it simple. Stay the course.
by galeno
Mon May 25, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: put bonds purchases on hold while stock prices still low?
Replies: 5
Views: 422

Re: put bonds purchases on hold while stock prices still low?

80 -100% equities is aggressive. Pick an aggressive AA and stay there.
by galeno
Sun May 24, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 27
Views: 2337

Re: Investing in International Stocks

FTSE all cap world equiy index (VT) = 55% USA + 35% non USA dev + 10% EM. It's a bet on world economic growth. It IS the WHOLE haystack. Is tilting 100% USA a bad idea? No. So far it's beating non USA by a wide margin. But why stop there? You just rejected 45% of the above world equity index. Why no...
by galeno
Sun May 24, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data
Replies: 18
Views: 1191

Re: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data

This is what we did/do.

First 12 yr 100/0
Next 11 yr 80/20
Next 11 yr 60/20
Next 03 yr 40/60

This year 45/55
Next year 50/50

You should hold 80-90% equities. Several years before retirement reduce to 40-60% equites.
by galeno
Sat May 23, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

With Ireland domiciled ETFs we don't get SEC Yields. We use YTM (yield to maturity). We need to use SOMETHING for apples to apples comparisons. I happen to like the USA's SEC Yield. I think I would have a second look at your Effective Duration numbers and add consideration for what the funds are act...
by galeno
Fri May 22, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

We won't use those USA domiciled ETFs off a USA domiciled stock exchange. As USA-NRAs we buy and hold Ireland domiciled ETFs off the London Stock Exchange. Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSIGX) has a duration of 5.2 years. Is that short enough? Total Bond Market Index...
by galeno
Fri May 22, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

I'm going to look into this idea! Our corp bond ETF yields 2.7%. The EM bond ETF yields 5.2%. The duration is shorter. The credit quality = BBB. Instead of using 20% corp bonds we could hold 10% EM bonds. Both corps and EM bonds went down hard. EM bonds are still -8% YTD. Corps are up 1% YTD. We alr...
by galeno
Fri May 22, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

The nays have won. Reason trumps fear. Thanks all.

Sacrificing 0.49% yield per year is a lot of money (fun).

We're going to maintain our current intermediate term bond ETFs.
by galeno
Fri May 22, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

Bogleheads prefer to take risk on the equity side. I consider EM bonds to be very "equity-like". At 50% equities we don't want more equity-like risk. If we did we'd just hold more stocks. Our currency is tied to the USD. For us the only inflation rate that matters is the USD CPI. Right but you dokno...
by galeno
Fri May 22, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

Excellent question. We live in Costa Rica. A "dessert province " of our regional hegemon: the USA. When the USA government tells CR to jump we only ask "how high sir"? Our economy is the size of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. Which is number 100 in the USA. Our currency is tied to the USD. Our...
by galeno
Fri May 22, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

Our default bond preference is intermediate term. We want 3 things from our bonds: 1. Ballast for equity bears. 2. Port (real net) yield >/= 0%. 3. Partial protection against unexpected USD inflation. Real = net of USD inflation. Net = net of Level 1 & 2 dividend withholding taxes (0.12%), port ER (...
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

I'm looking at it this way. If my bonds are worth $1M we lose $5100 per year in yield using the short term versions. That's a lot of money. But we'd lose only $19K NAV with a 1% increase in interest rates. And that gets "rolled up" in 2 years. With the intermediate version we'd lose $220K and it wou...
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

Our Interm Term US Corp Bond ETF has a duration = 7.8 yr. Yield = 2.79%. Short term version is duration = 1.9 yr. Yield = 2.09% Our Interm Term US Treas ETF has a duration = 7.0 yr. Yield = 0.57%. Short term version is duration = 1.9 yr. Yield = 0.25% How should I cut the duration cake? Maybe even g...
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolios: 1 Fund, 2 Fund, 3 Fund or 4 Fund?
Replies: 59
Views: 2805

Re: Portfolios: 1 Fund, 2 Fund, 3 Fund or 4 Fund?

I like the 2 fund port. X% VT + Y% BNDW. I like once a year rebalancing. Not the every day you'd get with using just one fund.
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

We are retired and use the 4% rule. The duration of our stock and bond holdings is 33 years. When both my wife and I are 95. We are more concerned with rising interest rates. With a duration of 7.4 yr our bond ETFs should lose 7.4% of NAV with each 1% in interest rates. So if interest rates rise fro...
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6051

Re: I freaked out…now what?

Yes you blew it. Don't repeat it. Ever. We have a rule that we've kept since Jan 2006. Only touch our port once per year. In early January. This year we broke that rule. But we did the exact OPPOSITE of what you did. We started the year at 40/60. The BEAR took us to 35/65. So on March 31 we over-reb...
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 43
Views: 2509

Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

Due to extremely low interest rates we are worried that our bond duration is too long. We are thinking of shortening it. We will sacrifice yield to get a far greater reduction in bond duration. Right now we are using 50% Intermediate Term US Treasury ETF + 50% Intermediate Term US Corp Bond ETF. Dur...
by galeno
Thu May 21, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 27
Views: 2337

Re: Investing in International Stocks

As USA-NRAs we buy and sell our Ireland domiciled ETFs from Vanguard and Ishares on the LSE.

It's our best deal. We never use the USA exchanges.
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Which Corp Bond Fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 550

Which Corp Bond Fund?

As of 29 April 2020. ER = 0.09% and Credit = A- for both. VDUC: YTM = 2.0%. Duration = 1.9 yr. VDCP: YTM = 2.7%. Duration = 7.8 yr. We've owned CP for many years. UC is a newer ETF. I've been watching it for a while. If we switch CP for UC we reduce YTM by 26%. And we reduce duration by 76%. Our cur...
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard All World ETFs
Replies: 7
Views: 1367

Re: Vanguard All World ETFs

There is a difference between investing and speculation. For me commodities, REITs, and CEFs are good for hedging and or speculation. Investing is X% World Stocks + Y% World Investment Grade Bonds. Everything else is speculating. From 1994-2005 I was a trader / speculator. I was pretty good at it. I...
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student debt vs investing
Replies: 37
Views: 1956

Re: Student debt vs investing

We expect a real CAGR = 2% from our 50/50 port. 4% real for stocks. 0% real for FI.

If the interest rate on your student loans is greater than 2% real then pay those down first.
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard All World ETFs
Replies: 7
Views: 1367

Re: Vanguard All World ETFs

VT ~ 90% VWRD + 10% WSML
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8736

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

I agree. China and the USA will compete with each other. The FTSE all world equity index has 55% USA and 4.4% China. Our equity allocation has 7.8% China. We tilt a bit. Their coastal area are definitely developed level, the Nanshan district of Shenzhen about several million inhabitants has a GDP pe...
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice
Replies: 14
Views: 1038

Re: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice

Welcome to the forum. To me your proposed port makes no sense and it is too complicated. Your bets will be wrong and you will soon change them. And then change them again. You are too young and too inexperienced to have the "strong hands" needed to hold your non-tracking equity port. Just my humble ...
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8736

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Our equity allocatcation has 7.8% in China. 18% in EM.

80% VWRD + 10% VDEM + 10% WSML
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 145
Views: 8754

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

We tilt our equities AWAY from the USA.

VTI = 100% USA

VT = 55% USA

Our equities = 50% USA
by galeno
Wed May 20, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2180

Re: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

We use two ETFs with EM. One without

80% VWRD (World LCs) is 10% EM and has 4.4% in China.

10% VDEM (EM) is 100% EM has 43.5% in China.

10% WSML (World SCs) is 0% EM and has 0% in China.

Our equity allocation has 7.8% in China.
by galeno
Tue May 19, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total world vs total us + international
Replies: 23
Views: 1314

Re: Total world vs total us + international

I wish there were a non-USA domiciled version of VT: 80% LC + 16% MC + 4% SC

The closest we have is VWRD: 85% LC + 15% MC + 0% SC

So we use two ETFs (90% VWRD + 10% WSML) to make "VT": 76% LC + 18% MC + 6% SC
by galeno
Sat May 16, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 47
Views: 3321

Re: The Mighty USD

If we ever find ourselves in a situation where we need to buy metal to survive we prefer LEAD as in ammunition.
by galeno
Sat May 16, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please tell me I'm not crazy [Best way to manage an EF?]
Replies: 171
Views: 10359

Re: Please tell me I'm not crazy

As retirees following the 4% rule we always start the year with 5% of port in CASH. I prefer a 60/40 AA for retirement. Aggressive. My wife prefers 40/60. Conservative. We hold 50/50. Moderate. As Americans would say. "This isn't our first rodeo ". This is the 4th BEAR for us. 1987 scared her. 2000-...
by galeno
Fri May 15, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 47
Views: 3321

The Mighty USD

Any guesses on whether the USD will continue stronger or weaker over the next 10 years?
by galeno
Thu May 14, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Rate my Portfolio / AA [EU]
Replies: 15
Views: 688

Re: Rate my Portfolio / AA [EU]

You are a rookie. I can smell them from a km away. We were all rookies once. Welcome to the forum.
by galeno
Thu May 14, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Corporate Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 592

Re: High Yield Corporate Fund

Are you trying to demonstrate a certain portfolio yield? Or a certain amount of income?

Where are you from? Which country are you trying to impress?
by galeno
Thu May 14, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Rate my Portfolio / AA [EU]
Replies: 15
Views: 688

Re: Rate my Portfolio / AA

You want a 100% equity-like portfolio. Obviously you are a rookie. Rookies ALWAYS unnecessarily complicate their portfolios. And they always feel the need to speculate. This is what you should do. We use USD. Find the equivalent ETFs in Euros. Start with: 70% VWRD + 10% WSML + 10% VDEM + 10% BINGO I...
by galeno
Thu May 14, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?
Replies: 48
Views: 4247

Re: Fixed Income lessons learned from Coronavirus?

No new lessons learned. 50/50 port.

We always start the year with 5% of port in CASH. The rest in investment grade bonds. .

20% US Treasuries for ballast.

20% US Corporate Bonds to reach for yield a bit.

05% TIPS for insurance against unexpected inflation and ballast.
by galeno
Wed May 13, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using A Conservative Calculation
Replies: 11
Views: 606

Re: Using A Conservative Calculation

"Those assumptions are way, way beyond conservative and reasonable."

Maybe? And maybe not?

Our expected port return of 2% real over 10 yr seems very reasonable. If it does better I'll be happy.
by galeno
Wed May 13, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using A Conservative Calculation
Replies: 11
Views: 606

Re: Using A Conservative Calculation

FI = Fixed Income.

Our FI = 90% investment grade bonds + 10% CASH
by galeno
Wed May 13, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using A Conservative Calculation
Replies: 11
Views: 606

Re: Using A Conservative Calculation

I assume our world equities will deliver a 4% real CAGR and our USD FI a 0% real CAGR.

At 50/50 our port should deliver a 2% real CAGR over the next 10 years.
by galeno
Wed May 06, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Irish Domiciled VTI Alternative?
Replies: 12
Views: 2203

Re: Irish Domiciled VTI Alternative?

We hold 80% VWRD + 10 % WSML + 10% VDEM

VT = 79 % LC + 17% MC + 4% SC

Ours = 76% LC + 18% MC + 6% SC
by galeno
Wed May 06, 2020 5:21 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Irish Domiciled VTI Alternative?
Replies: 12
Views: 2203

Re: Irish Domiciled VTI Alternative?

If you want to match VTI or VT you'll need to use 2 Ireland domiciled ETFs. Small caps.
by galeno
Mon May 04, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40669

Re: Why international?

Yes. I believe non-USA equities will out perform over the next 10 years. China beats USA. Our equities tilt accordingly. On Mar 31 we over rebalanced our 35/65 to 45/55 after it fell from 40/60. We bought EM and Global SC. In January we will over-rebalance to 50/50. VT vs our equities. VT = 55% USA ...
by galeno
Mon May 04, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to set up first large portfolio as a novice? Nomad Freelancer/Residence Issues
Replies: 29
Views: 2012

Re: How to set up first large portfolio as a novice? Nomad Freelancer/Residence Issues

Wow. Excelent article. It's important to have a tax home for non-USA people. When I was a young college student in the early 1980s I met 3 different PTs from the USA that were visiting Costa Rica. All 3 used an address in the USA so there would be no problems with their USA domiciled brokerages. We ...
by galeno
Sun May 03, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Revenue Exposure to Foriegn Countries vs Direct Foreign Stocks? Are they the same?
Replies: 8
Views: 448

Re: Revenue Exposure to Foriegn Countries vs Direct Foreign Stocks? Are they the same?

American exceptionalism is in a non-shooting war with Chinese exceptionalism.

Chinese equities compose 4% of FTSE all world equity index. Our equity port tilt gives us 7%.
by galeno
Sun May 03, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: American exceptionalism

10 yr CAGRs: VTI = 11.29%. VT = 7.07%. I believe (hope) VT beats VTI over the next 10 years. I maintain that USA domiciled investors and MAYBE some USA-NRAs with USA tax treaties should hold 100% USA domiciled equities. 100% VTI. USA-NRAs w/o USA tax treaties should hold a global equity allocation. ...
by galeno
Sun May 03, 2020 6:55 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Georgia] Investing from tax haven
Replies: 10
Views: 1014

Re: [Georgia] Investing from tax haven

I agree with glorat.
by galeno
Sun May 03, 2020 6:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Our USA-NRA Portfolio Costs
Replies: 11
Views: 789

Re: Our USA-NRA Portfolio Costs

Maple. You may be correct. If so we've been evading a non-existing tax for decades. I based my assumption on CDs. If I hold CDs in a CR bank the bank withholds 10% of the interest income. But the most important issue about our methods is more about personal security. Our biggest worries are home inv...