Search found 721 matches

by MIretired
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 23
Views: 1413

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I think it's a good presentation. It shows a lot of data. I would lose the AA,BB combinations and change the period to 7-10 yrs instead of 2 months to match economic cycles.
by MIretired
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 2901

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

I tend to think that diversification, cap-weighting, and MPT are 3 different things. I honestly don't know why cap-weighting would be considered a natural result of MPT. I think that in the most general way, rebalancing is the action that resets to equal weight, whereas cap weighting is to not rebal...
by MIretired
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7204

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

You almost have to compare with the amount you pay out of your portfolio while waiting on SS as set up in TIPS funds, or at least intermed. bonds. Else the uncertainty over that short 4 yrs. is too great.
by MIretired
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 23
Views: 1413

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I definitely need to consider what the amount of error is. Also why it only converges if returns are between +1,-1. Think maybe it is like a sin x series vs a hyperbolic function series.
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7204

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

The following is copied from a post by an investor at the the Fidelity website. I assume I am not violating any rules by reproducing it here. The author makes an argument for taking social security benefits at age 66. It would be very interesting to hear what some of the sharp minds here have to sa...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 23
Views: 1413

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I think I was saying the same thing in not enough words. In this case it's a lot of sequence of 2 month returns random scatter. It could be a scatter by +/- F, not necessarily at 2 months. Maybe I just threw in that it tests if 1 port was higher returning, was it because of it's 2 month sequences? ...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 23
Views: 1413

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I think I was saying the same thing in not enough words. In this case it's a lot of sequence of 2 month returns random scatter. It could be a scatter by +/- F, not necessarily at 2 months. Maybe I just threw in that it tests if 1 port was higher returning, was it because of it's 2 month sequences? R...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 23
Views: 1413

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Wonder if this thread is still open for a little contemplation. I spent plenty of time tracing through the logic of this, but this was primarily a learning experience. Some open (and closed?) comments and questions.: I take it that this is meant to examine which one of two different funds/ports were...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Article on Volatility
Replies: 3
Views: 550

Re: Vanguard Article on Volatility

New Vanguard article (8/24/18) on volatility and how to handle it. Readers were asked for feedback and several hundred replied. I wonder how many were Bogleheads. I don't think this was posted earlier. https://vanguardblog.com/2018/08/24/vanguard-investors-share-advice-for-weathering-market-volatil...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6549

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

With a bit of copying and pasting, I created a chart similar to what you suggested, here is the link. I am not too sure what this is telling you though... Let me know if this is of interest. That's mainly what I meant. But didn't expect the mis-ordering now. I really wanted to see whether stocks wo...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6549

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

I am looking at the stock/bond chart you made(actually thought it was a bar chart; but must be a copy of spreadsheet cells) with real returns. Yes, those are spreadsheet cells with a good dose of conditional formatting. And how it shows for 5 yr. independent times, stocks won 78% since 1927, and bo...
by MIretired
Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6549

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

How do you calculate "relative premium over the returns of the US stock market"? An example using numbers from the above tables would be great. Thank you. Take the absolute return of Italy in 1998 in this post . It was 42.88%. While the US was 30.72%. An approximate way of computing the premium wou...
by MIretired
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the good souls that can time their contributions
Replies: 10
Views: 1563

Re: For the good souls that can time their contributions

Never heard of this. Maybe because people wished they had gotten out on FRI? ( :D ,doubt it!)
by MIretired
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 1409

Re: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks

The difference between the 20% incremental steps in stock exposure would have equal steps in return if not for non-correlation and rebalancing. You would take 100% stock return minus 100% bond return and divide that into 5 steps-- (10.1% - 5.4%)/5. This would be the equal incremental difference in r...
by MIretired
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do at 62?
Replies: 52
Views: 5964

Re: What to do at 62?

...From age 70, I then will take RMDs according to the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. I assume a flat 25% tax rate that applies to all distributions, either Roth conversions or RMDs... Thing is, we do NOT have a flat tax rate system, whether 25% or 24% (Federal). Now it's true that the 24% tax bracket...
by MIretired
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another approach to bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 2126

Re: Another approach to bonds

One way to think of your bond allocation is covering a certain number of years expenses that allows you to sleep in night. That might be 10, maybe more. If stocks go up, you do not need to rebalance because you still have your 10 years expenses in bonds. Forgot this. Many retirees report keeping 5y...
by MIretired
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence
Replies: 152
Views: 4341

Re: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence

Set rent = PITI at start. (So same monthly payment at start.) Assume rent and house value both increase at same rate. Say at CPI rate of say 2.5% annually. This is the clincher where I live: prop.tax + insur. = 2.5% of my home value every year, which of coarse comes out of my pocket every year (plu...
by MIretired
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do at 62?
Replies: 52
Views: 5964

Re: What to do at 62?

Came across this interesting post on the VG blog; https://vanguardblog.com/2018/05/30/the-social-security-timing-debate/ The point I found interesting was the recommendation to not take SS at 62 but instead withdraw living expenses from your T-IRA from that age. What this does is not only build up ...
by MIretired
Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence
Replies: 152
Views: 4341

Re: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence

Klangfool; You got me to rethink this. I don't know if you'd already figured this out the same as I do or if you're genuinely asking the question for a cash flow advantage model. :o I'm surprised by my finding, right or wrong. It throws me back to the old times as to how I thought of this question o...
by MIretired
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: Timing your withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 3680

Re: Retirees: Timing your withdrawals

Quarterly, or longer. I have a 3% local checking account. I mostly WD from fixed income, now, until I start SS.
by MIretired
Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 813

Re: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?

I believe the change to the current popularity slowly arose, and was accelerated by information more available on the internet, and the way the internet has spread the information. I think it was the avalanche of people finding out that they could not beat indexing over a meaningful time period. It ...
by MIretired
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index
Replies: 12
Views: 2121

Re: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index

Where would one find the historical yearly or monthly yield for the Total Bond Market Index Fund? Vanguard offers the historical monthly yield data for about the last 18 months, but is there a source that shows the monthly yield since the Fund's inception? If you use portfoliovisualizer: For annual...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road trip - Dallas to Kalispell MT - which vehicle and must sees
Replies: 30
Views: 2291

Re: Road trip - Dallas to Kalispell MT - which vehicle and must sees

I think I'd take the V6.
Why aren't you taking:
Colo. Sprngs. (Pike's Peak,Garden of the Gods, Seven Falls, Mesa Overlook, more)
Denver
Rocky Mtn Nat Prk
Wy-Yellowstone
Grand Tetons Nat Prk
Seen them yet?
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index
Replies: 12
Views: 2121

Re: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index

If you're not counting on getting the best non-correlation to equities, Tot.Bnd. has a better return and Sharpe ratio (stand alones) than Intermed.Treas.; better Sharpe than Intermed.Corp.
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5392

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

That's not what he said. He that short-term bonds have lower nominal rates (which is virtually always true unless the yield curve is very inverted and certainly true over the long-term), and they do indeed more closely track inflation than do long-term bonds. In the comment to which that reply was ...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 4038

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

I'll get it done, hopefully soon, but I don't want to promise a specific date and break my promise again. No big deal, in all fairness, making a duplicate copy of the Google Sheet is good enough to play around, this is a small spreadsheet. Could you please spend a little bit of time explaining the ...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 24
Views: 2313

Re: The other side of stock buybacks

Don't stock buy backs AND exec. share options have to be set or approved by the boards?
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1200 AC fix on a 2007 Civic
Replies: 22
Views: 1691

Re: $1200 AC fix on a 2007 Civic

I've developed a valuation model for cars that considers the estimated future cost per year to keep it driveable. Such as the engine should last maybe 300,000 mi., the trans. 200,000 mi. --if your a little lucky. Some people don't consider maintenance and repairs as part of the bargain--they should....
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 4038

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

2nd ?:
Top part of Sheet2, talks about $100,000. SPIA cost for me, and I enter my monthly rec'd payment for that @80 today's dollars.
Does it just scale this to give me a continuous WD rate same as this year(depends on markets every year)(and using my lifelong pensions) down to cells B22,23,24 ?
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 4038

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Appreciate the work. The user sheet is visually appealing, too. I've been playing with it now. (I copied it to my google docs and downloaded as a LibreOffice sheet and works fine, of course.) Like others--some trouble understanding some of the entries. Like all the SPIA COLA'd inputs/outputs general...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 16990

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

WanderingDoc Enticing idea about the use of leverage for RE, with little risk of defaulting. That might have been debatable back in 2009 & 10. And seems ,since you're early 30s and a doc, you were not doing this then. But, a question, if you would answer: Seems you mentioned one possible property as...
by MIretired
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1809

Re: Total returns

According to the links above, the benchmark returns were 21.41%. Expense ratios: .11% vtiax and .17% for vgtsx Returns: 27.55% vtiax and 27.40% vgtsx Subtracting the expense ratios off the top of these returns gives me 27.44% and 27.23% which are no where near the benchmarks. So there must be some ...
by MIretired
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"
Replies: 44
Views: 5331

Re: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"

From the Investment Company Act of 1940: (1) ‘‘Diversified company’’ means a management company which meets the following requirements: At least 75 per centum of the value of its total assets is represented by cash and cash items (including receivables), Government securities, securities of other i...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 27
Views: 2387

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

this is killing me as well. when my 1st daughter turned 1, she received a decent amount money from family. we put that money into a 529 plan for her and its been doing decent(deposit made in 2015 + a few smaller deposits each year as she receives bday/xmas/etc). my 2nd daughter just turned 1 and re...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 27
Views: 2387

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

this is killing me as well. when my 1st daughter turned 1, she received a decent amount money from family. we put that money into a 529 plan for her and its been doing decent(deposit made in 2015 + a few smaller deposits each year as she receives bday/xmas/etc). my 2nd daughter just turned 1 and re...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19347

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The following link downloads the latest Excel spreadsheet from Standard and Poors' website, outlining recent historical and forecasted future market earnings performance. https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true This download is linked to the fo...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19347

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The following link downloads the latest Excel spreadsheet from Standard and Poors' website, outlining recent historical and forecasted future market earnings performance. https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true This download is linked to the fo...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 10922

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Besides. Amazon is the only one that is kickin' it. Up 48%YTD, but it's only (after that YTD explosion) 2.82% of S&P market cap. Netflix isn't even in the top 25 by mark.cap.(<.74%.) The rest of FAANGM are up between 10-20%YTD. https://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=VFINX®ion=usa&cult...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19347

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I looked in my port. manager from M*, and SP500 oper. earn. TTM and forward 1 yr are both just 10-25 bps higher than they are for TSM. Can't find TTM /net earn. on TSM on the web. Here's ycharts for SP500 net reported annualized earnings from prev post--notice no 03/2018 yet. Dec. 31, 2017 109.88 Se...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19347

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

^ here's where I get most of this. Also, I add three of these into my custom port view in port manager from Morn.*. Main thing is difference between oper. and net reported and figuring which is being used. https://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/home.asp?colId=397&CN=COM Yeh. But like I said: the 25...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6846

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

I use a FI piece to get me to soc.sec. Then I have the risk portfolio, but you can think of that as buckets: part is price stability, part is income stability(mostly), and part is growth.
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19347

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

S&P forecast earnings growth out to 2020+ are already priced into stocks. That’s why the S&P 500 is trading at a 25+ current earnings multiple. According to the Standard and Poors link, they are projecting a 2018 P/E of 17 based upon current prices. How is this a 25+ earnings multiple? Been digging...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?
Replies: 7
Views: 1376

Re: Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?

I haven't often(or ever) seen an article that sums up mostly? all the risks a portfolio and investor is faced with; all in one article. And quite brief, but detailed enough. I enjoyed that article.
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1970

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

... Yeh. Bids and asks; not about a concept of marked to market. It's always a bid and ask system? So for a specific stock, everything trades on one exchange; or all exchanges are synced?; and all at 4PM EST? That right? I think that is what you're implying. Think this has been gone through many ti...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1970

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

... I once read that the opening "bid" on stock exchanges is in fact adjusted after a dividend payable date is reached so that the market opens appropriately. I am not sure I understand that process. ... Should investors leave limit orders open overnight the exchange adjusts them by the amount of t...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1970

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

Why do they call bond fund monthly/quarterly payments as dividends? Are they not coupons/interest payments? Don't know. Maybe it's called a coupon when it's an individual bond. And a dividend when it's a fund of bonds, and the fund received the individual coupons throughtout the month/quarter. This...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1970

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

OP has it right by distinguishing between being part owner (equity/shares) or creditor (bondholder). dividends go to owners, coupon payments go to creditors. two very different things. i think it might be simplest to just break down all the ways management at a company can utilize the money it gene...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1970

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

I think I agree with the point of your discussion. It probably needs to be shorter. 1. The essence of the comment is that dividends are a payment out of the assets of the company. At the time the payment is made the assets will become less by that amount, all other transactions accounted for. Betwe...