Search found 662 matches

by MIretired
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3128

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Thanks for posting some of the distribution of returns data.
by MIretired
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* portfolio tracker - no May dividends
Replies: 3
Views: 398

Re: M* portfolio tracker - no May dividends

Same here. Finally on Friday. I get this about 2,3, or 4 times a year. Another one is prime mm never records divs. anymore for a couple years now. I don't care too much because I only want a close tracking in M*. For the real balances I go to VG.
by MIretired
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9282

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

vineviz, What might your answer/opinions to this be: OK, sure, according to the Cramer episodes ,'am I diversified', the 4 stocks in 4 relatively(2 types of financials?) different sectors IS MORE diversified than 6 finanacials, 1 energy?, and 1 healthcare(biotech.) How about a universe of all US, an...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9282

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

What bothers me, still, about using just standard deviations, and anythig derived using SD, is they don't take into account the dispersion of SD. Do they? I mean skew and kurtosis and funny data series can have the same SDs but be very much less non-normal distributions. Hence I don't like to be mad...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9282

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

It's often mentioned that the total US stock index is the efficient mix of all US stocks. I wanted to check this using the Sharpe ratio, but didn't want to enter 1700+ stocks. So, I thought, I can get a good check using the efficient frontier of S&P500 (VFINX) vs extended market index (VEXMX). These...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with cash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9625

Re: What are you doing with cash?

As far as the $3000. minimum; that's just to open the account under normal (not a settlement account arrangement) circumstances. The balance can then fall below $3000. no problem. There may be other minimum retaining balances that I'm not aware of--though BlackcatCA states their balance of <$10. dis...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which bridge to SS?
Replies: 8
Views: 871

Re: Which bridge to SS?

Could/would you accelerate/pay-off your mortgage? So less need to hold as much cash/short term bonds for expenses. That's possible, but it would be a significant chunk of my available after-tax resources. It would force me to withdraw more from pre-tax funds, increasing my income and my healthcare ...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which bridge to SS?
Replies: 8
Views: 871

Re: Which bridge to SS?

Could/would you accelerate/pay-off your mortgage? So less need to hold as much cash/short term bonds for expenses.
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

OK. I ran a sample in pv. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=05%2F21%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalan...
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

OK. I ran a sample in pv. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=05%2F21%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanc...
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. I finally get this. I get the point. Lower volatility of returns results in higher compounded return. Period. Not forgetting "for the same expected return." A lot of people get confused about that and also there needs to be quantification showing how much can be gained how consistently. An app...
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. I finally get this. I get the point. Lower volatility of returns results in higher compounded return. Period.
by MIretired
Mon May 21, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth question
Replies: 24
Views: 1610

Re: Roth question

Was there any gain on the $5,500 originally put in? I'm surprised you did not see a bunch of warnings/messages that you were doing something that might have tax consequences. There is a 10% penalty on early withdrawals (not counting the original investment). If your $5,500 grew to $5,550 and you to...
by MIretired
Mon May 21, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

I think a possible misconception of the Norstad chart is tat it is looking at probabilities 40 yrs out. It's like looking at the yield to cost 40 yrs out. ETA: OK. I was reading the Norstad article. And true enough, I'm somewhat messed up with the time relationships. I'm probably more messed up with...
by MIretired
Mon May 21, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

The big mistake I keep making in logic (I've been attempting to deduce this) is that I assume stocks will always tend to go up. Well sometimes they go down or sideways for 10+ years, ie. 2000-2009. So, it's the harmonic mean, not the exp mean, which I've tried to make it. So, like the S&P is still b...
by MIretired
Sun May 20, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. If it wasn't for greed, I'd have no greed/desire at all! Well, maybe. :) I agree with all the posts re. after mine. But I kind of skimmed over and didn't get at a point to the statement of RandomWalker's, about increasing geomean by reducing variance, all else equal. My point would be that the...
by MIretired
Sun May 20, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

When comparing two assets for diversification potential: Which one got there by exp. growth? Which one got there by higher avg. returns, or by a 'one-off', possibly? The more volatile, the more sampling or time needed to tell. Or just look at the economic/asset picture, and take your best guess. :) ...
by MIretired
Sun May 20, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. If it wasn't for greed, I'd have no greed/desire at all! Well, maybe. :) I agree with all the posts re. after mine. But I kind of skimmed over and didn't get at a point to the statement of RandomWalker's, about increasing geomean by reducing variance, all else equal. My point would be that the...
by MIretired
Sun May 20, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. If it wasn't for greed, I'd have no greed/desire at all! Well, maybe. :) I agree with all the posts re. after mine. But I kind of skimmed over and didn't get at a point to the statement of RandomWalker's, about increasing geomean by reducing variance, all else equal. My point would be that the ...
by MIretired
Sun May 20, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

IlliniDave, I’m no math whiz, but I disagree. The issue is not just looking at past returns as you wrote above. The issue is building efficient portfolios for the future. Looking forward, each potential portfolio addition has an expected return, a simple mean with a potential dispersion of outcomes...
by MIretired
Sun May 20, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9441

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

I believe this is a very important topic. When we create a portfolio, we look at the expected returns, volatilities, and correlations of potential portfolio additions. The expected return of an investment is an estimate of an arithmetic mean return. The expected return of a portfolio is a weighted ...
by MIretired
Fri May 04, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend
Replies: 19
Views: 4279

Re: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend

Whoops! I just assumed that 28 days was a much smaller difference. Actually, since both Jan. and Mar. are 31 days, 3/31 is just about a 10% in less days. So that does it. Well, maybe doesn't explain every detail. But I feel less taken advantage of or something. Amazing difference. :oops: I'v e been ...
by MIretired
Thu May 03, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend
Replies: 19
Views: 4279

Re: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend

It has that downward blip every year in either Jan. or Feb. Bond funds accrue income daily so the monthly payout depends on the number of days in the month. See my post above on February 5. If you have an account with Vanguard you should be able to see your accrued dividends every day. In my case, ...
by MIretired
Thu May 03, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend
Replies: 19
Views: 4279

Re: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend

I was interested to see what this was. The VFICX IG corp fund also has a once a year lower dividend. This year Feb; last year Feb., also. This is managed by VG though. It might be some expense other than expense ratio. But I'm not interested further because there's nothing that I do; but just except...
by MIretired
Thu May 03, 2018 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend
Replies: 19
Views: 4279

Re: Vanguard High Yield Corporate - Another New Low in Dividend

Here is an updated chart on Vanguard High Yield Corporate showing the NAV and Dividend. The monthly dividend has rebounded from the low January payout. This does fit with my thoughts that losses in derivatives were a factor in the lower dividend. Note also that the NAV has continued its relatively ...
by MIretired
Wed May 02, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1050

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

From the P/E = 20, if the price/share is $100, then the 1 yr. earnings or the expected next yr. earnings (depending on trailing or expected earnings) is $5/share. So the enterprise value(?) increased by $5/share. (less $ dividend paid/share)
by MIretired
Wed May 02, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY)
Replies: 16
Views: 1327

Re: Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY)

I have always had a hard time thinking in terms of taxable equivalent yields. I much prefer comparing after tax yields. There really isn't any more math involved. It's also something you can compare to inflation. Not sure it matters to me that my before-tax yield on my CD breaks even with inflation...
by MIretired
Wed May 02, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1050

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

You mean just that the price is 20x the earnings?
by MIretired
Wed May 02, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3382

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

I suspected options (puts or calls?) wouldn't work, thinking the cost (which can be a total loss of the 'bet'), and that they are just that, a bet. And they're going to be priced according to everyone elses' bets? So, yea, there are not the asset, they're a bet on one year's price change. But he's t...
by MIretired
Wed May 02, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Making it easier to track posts from the OP
Replies: 29
Views: 2424

Re: Making it easier to track posts from the OP

You can also just go to the first post in the tread (the OP's), and click their username over to the right below avatar. Then on their page, click search user posts; and see the posts with the same thread title (as long as a reply by OP wasn't also a title change or changed to just "Reply", or somet...
by MIretired
Tue May 01, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3382

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

Point out how I'm wrong, 'cause I didn't investigate this too far; Isn't this just re-stateing Sharpe: that the variance (or is it just the SD) is reduced with time by SQRT(time)? I mean, sure, you can sell S&P DEC31, and buy it again the same DEC31 (stash the sell into cash). But you've bought and ...
by MIretired
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dropping equities dividend rates and loss of compounding
Replies: 15
Views: 1764

Re: Dropping equities dividend rates and loss of compounding

Edit: Not the same as a reverse stock split at all, unless ,or until, they might retire the shares bought back. Until then, the shares are called (company) treasury shares.
by MIretired
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dropping equities dividend rates and loss of compounding
Replies: 15
Views: 1764

Re: Dropping equities dividend rates and loss of compounding

Edit to my previous post: I'll have to read up on the standard description or formula/definition of Earnings Growth Rate, as I'm likely not using the industry formulas. ie: growth of earnings while including Retained Earnings. The standard, I believe, just makes Earnings Growth Rate larger, and inco...
by MIretired
Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dropping equities dividend rates and loss of compounding
Replies: 15
Views: 1764

Re: Dropping equities dividend rates and loss of compounding

Without regard to cases of dividend cuts because of company(ies) faltering, or the economy faltering, dividends are part of the net earnings for a company (or they effectively would be even if the company has to borrow to pay them.) So, net earnings equal dividends plus retained earnings. And share ...
by MIretired
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4774

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

I imagine the chart changes yearly just as the efficient frontier graph does. As Taylor said, maybe more-so using many volatile asset classes. I just imagine it would.
by MIretired
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on Vanguard's Asset Level
Replies: 5
Views: 784

Re: Bogle on Vanguard's Asset Level

I bet VG has a marketing department, and there are marketing analysis enterprises that will survey people to find out how they found out about vanguard, and what they think of them. But i thought that a certain amount of advertising is necessary to maintain new business? --The name must be in peopl...
by MIretired
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matching bond duration to....?
Replies: 17
Views: 1498

Re: Matching bond duration to....?

After reading the more posts, using funds for LMP is a compromise. And that I mention holding for 2X duration is too conservative an approach IMO. After all, some of these just don't go down that much--but it's a compromise tradeoff? I won't use (yet) a LT bnd fund. Possibly for the non-correlation ...
by MIretired
Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on Vanguard's Asset Level
Replies: 5
Views: 784

Re: Bogle on Vanguard's Asset Level

I bet VG has a marketing department, and there are marketing analysis enterprises that will survey people to find out how they found out about vanguard, and what they think of them. But i thought that a certain amount of advertising is necessary to maintain new business? --The name must be in people...
by MIretired
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matching bond duration to....?
Replies: 17
Views: 1498

Re: Matching bond duration to....?

I think there's another adjustment that can be made. The OP seems to be confronting this dilemma. Your bond fund has a duration of 15 yrs. You need the money in 20. When do you start to reduce your bond duration? In 5 years you will be 15 years out from needing the money, but that time is only 5 yea...
by MIretired
Sun Oct 22, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund "share price"
Replies: 22
Views: 1325

Re: Mutual Fund "share price"

I think glossary is a good note for it's function. But then I started thinking that would end up being more like a dictionary. So then I, personally, would go to googleing the web for mutual fund share price.
by MIretired
Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Please Try Out Test Posts Here
Replies: 230
Views: 186279

Re: Please Try Out Test Posts Here

Ease of simba spreadsht graphs posting: No. Still need tinypic or photobucket. Edit: 10/24 googledrive -that works. 10/25-MSonedrive-embedimage: resizesmall https://v6jpfq.bn1303.livefilestore.com/y4mlhe-0r71v_m59mozSK0vsv3-vpite3eDtEMbru-_udimKmC1-wJBq5-S4tmiVypuxjgVpQvIbGyJXivB33r3-QfJdF9F7uIliBvS...
by MIretired
Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund "share price"
Replies: 22
Views: 1325

Re: Mutual Fund "share price"

I'm surprised this isn't explained somewhere in the wiki; like under mutual funds, what are they. There is some. Here's one of a few categories from searching the wiki for "mutual", https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Mutual_fund which explains that pooling many owners together, there is no problem of h...
by MIretired
Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

What does this refer to? Oh! An equal # of baby boomers still under age 65 when Gen Xers reach avg. age 65. They are never the majority working population? Yep. It tweaks me to no end that the general population has been led to believe that Gen X is irrelevant, when they are nearly as large a group...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

No glut that I can see: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/ft_16_04-25_generations2050/ What's sad is that at no time will Gen X rule. What's never reported is that they will be a significant influence for the foreseeable future. Ignore at your peril. ...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

Personally OP, I have no idea what will happen. I have some inkling, in I bought and sold a major player in the SPIA market. Made some nice profits. Want to buy back in but our Discretionary is depleted due to a recent rental purchase. The rentals will substitute for deferred annuities and have gre...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

^ Well it's true that most of BB retirees may not have enough retirement investments to BUY an SPIA. However, it is just the 2-10% of the population who has the Nation's wealth and who will consider the SPIA route. The top end, or the 2% will have sufficient wealth to Not Buy an SPIA because it is ...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

Most Baby Boomers don't even delay taking Social Security. I highly doubt they will start buying SPIAs. Those who don't have money will not have a lump sum to get an SPIA; those who have assets hate to see their "number" getting smaller; all are worrying that after they die the annuity will be "was...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

The more people that buy annuities the better it is for the insurance companies. A larger population of purchasers make their financial results likely closer to their actuarial models. Yes, but: the age of death distribution is skewed. If the age of owners is skewed, too, to older people. They woul...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

The Wizard wrote:
Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:36 pm
I don't think so.
I have a large annuity income which varies from year to year.
I think we're good...
I didn't consider existing annuity holders, which I think you imply.
How about new purchasers at age 75-85? Skew their pricing?
by MIretired
Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

What if?- a glut of 'baby-boomers' buying SPIAs at age 75-85?

As the title-- would this change the annuities industry and pricing? Seems like it must, at first glance. Producing a concentration of the age of annuity buyers? A huge change in the probabilities of outcomes for the insurers? Thoughts. Edit: Actually, on 2nd or 3rd thought: this wouldn't change the...