Search found 740 matches

by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?
Replies: 13
Views: 1286

Re: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?

My spouse turns 62 in December. Her first SS check will be received in January. Will it include the 2019 COLA because her birthday was in December? In this case her very first check would include the COLA. I googled around and have not been able to find a description of the exact mechanics. Unless ...
by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?
Replies: 13
Views: 1286

Re: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?

My spouse turns 62 in December. Her first SS check will be received in January. Will it include the 2019 COLA because her birthday was in December? In this case her very first check would include the COLA. I googled around and have not been able to find a description of the exact mechanics. Unless ...
by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?
Replies: 13
Views: 1286

Re: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?

My spouse turns 62 in December. Her first SS check will be received in January. Will it include the 2019 COLA because her birthday was in December? In this case her very first check would include the COLA. I googled around and have not been able to find a description of the exact mechanics. Unless ...
by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter - chat
Replies: 34
Views: 1808

Re: New West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter Established

Big Dutch wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:21 pm
LMCU only pays on 15k per account but you and your spouse can each have an account. 30k at 3% guaranteed is pretty nice.

Big Dutch
I thought it was $25k ea. Hmm. I usually have only $10k in there anyway.
by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter - chat
Replies: 34
Views: 1808

Re: New West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter Established

camillus wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:12 pm
I suppose one thing we can discuss is how best to take advantage of local resources, for instance, we have some great credit unions.
Yea. Credit unions is something I've acquired in the past couple yrs.

I'm also interested, David.
Greater GR.
by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!
Replies: 22
Views: 1172

Re: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!

OK.
Did Roth contrib 1/2016.Miised it being a contrib.
Did rechar of this 9/2017.
Did convers. of this 10/2017. amount $6930 for tax year 2017.I'm a bit lost on this being a conversion. Sorry. Maybe someone else can help in a hurry!
...
by MIretired
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!
Replies: 22
Views: 1172

Re: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!

Maybe it is no tax due because you rechar. total basis and gains. Sorry. Getting deep. Here is a portion from irs instr.; Recharacterizations Generally, you can recharacterize (correct) an IRA contribution, Roth IRA conversion, or a Roth IRA rollover from a qualified retirement plan by making a trus...
by MIretired
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!
Replies: 22
Views: 1172

Re: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!

I think that space (for prior year rechar.) on 2017 forms is just in case you hadn't reported it on your 2016 return. Because, you know, you might of had rechar. the 2016 convers. AFTER APR 15 tax time for 2016 (APR 15 2017), so that you might've not already reported it for 2016. But you DID report ...
by MIretired
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!
Replies: 22
Views: 1172

Re: Please help complete Form 8606 - Nondeductbile IRAs!!!

Hi, We are almost ready to submit our 2017 Tax Return until I notice the information on my Form 8606 generated by the tax software (taxact.com) does not look right. However, I don't know what I entered wrong. With deadline approaching, I am a little panic now. Here is my situation. 1) I made Roth I...
by MIretired
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 2705

Re: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio

Losing your income while holding a mortgage is when you learn the value of an emergency fund. That, or 0% rate credit card advances. I wouldn't touch the 401k unless I was unable to work, and as a last resort.
by MIretired
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unfortunate Near Real-Time Test of Sequence of Returns Risk v Probability of Retirement Success
Replies: 19
Views: 1746

Re: Unfortunate Near Real-Time Test of Sequence of Returns Risk v Probability of Retirement Success

This gave me an idea. I think I'll think of this in the inverse. Since the OP is about 10 years from expected retirement. I will take the inverse description and say you had a 7% chance of failure, and now have a 10% chance of failure. If you were much further from retirement, I'd stick with the cha...
by MIretired
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3751

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

Although bond rates were pegged in the '40's, long treasuries never traded up to their peg rate; I've read--can't find source right now. But since short rates were so low, investors took long term treasuries as better, and so naturally kept their yields down in the 2's, I think. Yield is just a mir...
by MIretired
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3751

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

Although bond rates were pegged in the '40's, long treasuries never traded up to their peg rate; I've read--can't find source right now. But since short rates were so low, investors took long term treasuries as better, and so naturally kept their yields down in the 2's, I think. Another point; bonds...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2786

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

It seems the post was mostly about the talk in 2010. 2 links at top of article. I googled bond bubble 2010. Here's one excerpt: https://www.businessinsider.com/at-least-be-aware-of-the-bond-bubble-2010-8 Sy Harding Aug. 25, 2010, 11:44 AM Money continues to pour into bonds at a ferocious pace, with ...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividends
Replies: 11
Views: 1418

Re: Dividends

$1.78 sounds about right for an investment amount of about $100 to $125 back when the dividend was paid ( 12/2017). The stock prices are high these days, so a dividend yield on tot. stk index is around 1.60 to 1.80% or so. P/E (trailing 12 mo.) today is about 25, so E/P about 4%. Dividend payout rat...
by MIretired
Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8011

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Interesting article on Siegel and Shiller that I thought I’d share here: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/siegel-shiller-stock-market/ Siegel: - The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before)...
by MIretired
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5573

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

I don't think a 2 yr cash like bucket could be good for much of anything but unplanned spending or buying stocks that fell a lot.
by MIretired
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)
Replies: 14
Views: 1059

Re: Is there any difference? (Re-balancing AA)

I probably has many meanings when taken out of context. They may have meant just no day trading. They may mean that assets zig and zag and you should hold through that. Many on the forum modify it to 'buy and hold, and rebalance.'
by MIretired
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I think it's a good presentation. It shows a lot of data. I would lose the AA,BB combinations and change the period to 7-10 yrs instead of 2 months to match economic cycles.
by MIretired
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 3128

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

I tend to think that diversification, cap-weighting, and MPT are 3 different things. I honestly don't know why cap-weighting would be considered a natural result of MPT. I think that in the most general way, rebalancing is the action that resets to equal weight, whereas cap weighting is to not rebal...
by MIretired
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10183

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

You almost have to compare with the amount you pay out of your portfolio while waiting on SS as set up in TIPS funds, or at least intermed. bonds. Else the uncertainty over that short 4 yrs. is too great.
by MIretired
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I definitely need to consider what the amount of error is. Also why it only converges if returns are between +1,-1. Think maybe it is like a sin x series vs a hyperbolic function series.
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10183

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

The following is copied from a post by an investor at the the Fidelity website. I assume I am not violating any rules by reproducing it here. The author makes an argument for taking social security benefits at age 66. It would be very interesting to hear what some of the sharp minds here have to sa...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I think I was saying the same thing in not enough words. In this case it's a lot of sequence of 2 month returns random scatter. It could be a scatter by +/- F, not necessarily at 2 months. Maybe I just threw in that it tests if 1 port was higher returning, was it because of it's 2 month sequences? ...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I think I was saying the same thing in not enough words. In this case it's a lot of sequence of 2 month returns random scatter. It could be a scatter by +/- F, not necessarily at 2 months. Maybe I just threw in that it tests if 1 port was higher returning, was it because of it's 2 month sequences? R...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Wonder if this thread is still open for a little contemplation. I spent plenty of time tracing through the logic of this, but this was primarily a learning experience. Some open (and closed?) comments and questions.: I take it that this is meant to examine which one of two different funds/ports were...
by MIretired
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Article on Volatility
Replies: 3
Views: 576

Re: Vanguard Article on Volatility

New Vanguard article (8/24/18) on volatility and how to handle it. Readers were asked for feedback and several hundred replied. I wonder how many were Bogleheads. I don't think this was posted earlier. https://vanguardblog.com/2018/08/24/vanguard-investors-share-advice-for-weathering-market-volatil...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6814

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

With a bit of copying and pasting, I created a chart similar to what you suggested, here is the link. I am not too sure what this is telling you though... Let me know if this is of interest. That's mainly what I meant. But didn't expect the mis-ordering now. I really wanted to see whether stocks wo...
by MIretired
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6814

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

I am looking at the stock/bond chart you made(actually thought it was a bar chart; but must be a copy of spreadsheet cells) with real returns. Yes, those are spreadsheet cells with a good dose of conditional formatting. And how it shows for 5 yr. independent times, stocks won 78% since 1927, and bo...
by MIretired
Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6814

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

How do you calculate "relative premium over the returns of the US stock market"? An example using numbers from the above tables would be great. Thank you. Take the absolute return of Italy in 1998 in this post . It was 42.88%. While the US was 30.72%. An approximate way of computing the premium wou...
by MIretired
Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the good souls that can time their contributions
Replies: 10
Views: 1618

Re: For the good souls that can time their contributions

Never heard of this. Maybe because people wished they had gotten out on FRI? ( :D ,doubt it!)
by MIretired
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 1475

Re: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks

The difference between the 20% incremental steps in stock exposure would have equal steps in return if not for non-correlation and rebalancing. You would take 100% stock return minus 100% bond return and divide that into 5 steps-- (10.1% - 5.4%)/5. This would be the equal incremental difference in r...
by MIretired
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do at 62?
Replies: 62
Views: 8424

Re: What to do at 62?

...From age 70, I then will take RMDs according to the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. I assume a flat 25% tax rate that applies to all distributions, either Roth conversions or RMDs... Thing is, we do NOT have a flat tax rate system, whether 25% or 24% (Federal). Now it's true that the 24% tax bracket...
by MIretired
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another approach to bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 2169

Re: Another approach to bonds

One way to think of your bond allocation is covering a certain number of years expenses that allows you to sleep in night. That might be 10, maybe more. If stocks go up, you do not need to rebalance because you still have your 10 years expenses in bonds. Forgot this. Many retirees report keeping 5y...
by MIretired
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence
Replies: 152
Views: 4451

Re: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence

Set rent = PITI at start. (So same monthly payment at start.) Assume rent and house value both increase at same rate. Say at CPI rate of say 2.5% annually. This is the clincher where I live: prop.tax + insur. = 2.5% of my home value every year, which of coarse comes out of my pocket every year (plu...
by MIretired
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do at 62?
Replies: 62
Views: 8424

Re: What to do at 62?

Came across this interesting post on the VG blog; https://vanguardblog.com/2018/05/30/the-social-security-timing-debate/ The point I found interesting was the recommendation to not take SS at 62 but instead withdraw living expenses from your T-IRA from that age. What this does is not only build up ...
by MIretired
Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence
Replies: 152
Views: 4451

Re: Cash Flow Gain Primary Residence

Klangfool; You got me to rethink this. I don't know if you'd already figured this out the same as I do or if you're genuinely asking the question for a cash flow advantage model. :o I'm surprised by my finding, right or wrong. It throws me back to the old times as to how I thought of this question o...
by MIretired
Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: Timing your withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 3802

Re: Retirees: Timing your withdrawals

Quarterly, or longer. I have a 3% local checking account. I mostly WD from fixed income, now, until I start SS.
by MIretired
Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 822

Re: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?

I believe the change to the current popularity slowly arose, and was accelerated by information more available on the internet, and the way the internet has spread the information. I think it was the avalanche of people finding out that they could not beat indexing over a meaningful time period. It ...
by MIretired
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index
Replies: 12
Views: 2181

Re: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index

Where would one find the historical yearly or monthly yield for the Total Bond Market Index Fund? Vanguard offers the historical monthly yield data for about the last 18 months, but is there a source that shows the monthly yield since the Fund's inception? If you use portfoliovisualizer: For annual...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road trip - Dallas to Kalispell MT - which vehicle and must sees
Replies: 30
Views: 2349

Re: Road trip - Dallas to Kalispell MT - which vehicle and must sees

I think I'd take the V6.
Why aren't you taking:
Colo. Sprngs. (Pike's Peak,Garden of the Gods, Seven Falls, Mesa Overlook, more)
Denver
Rocky Mtn Nat Prk
Wy-Yellowstone
Grand Tetons Nat Prk
Seen them yet?
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index
Replies: 12
Views: 2181

Re: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index

If you're not counting on getting the best non-correlation to equities, Tot.Bnd. has a better return and Sharpe ratio (stand alones) than Intermed.Treas.; better Sharpe than Intermed.Corp.
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5497

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

That's not what he said. He that short-term bonds have lower nominal rates (which is virtually always true unless the yield curve is very inverted and certainly true over the long-term), and they do indeed more closely track inflation than do long-term bonds. In the comment to which that reply was ...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 37
Views: 4498

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

I'll get it done, hopefully soon, but I don't want to promise a specific date and break my promise again. No big deal, in all fairness, making a duplicate copy of the Google Sheet is good enough to play around, this is a small spreadsheet. Could you please spend a little bit of time explaining the ...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 24
Views: 2340

Re: The other side of stock buybacks

Don't stock buy backs AND exec. share options have to be set or approved by the boards?
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1200 AC fix on a 2007 Civic
Replies: 22
Views: 1724

Re: $1200 AC fix on a 2007 Civic

I've developed a valuation model for cars that considers the estimated future cost per year to keep it driveable. Such as the engine should last maybe 300,000 mi., the trans. 200,000 mi. --if your a little lucky. Some people don't consider maintenance and repairs as part of the bargain--they should....
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 37
Views: 4498

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

2nd ?:
Top part of Sheet2, talks about $100,000. SPIA cost for me, and I enter my monthly rec'd payment for that @80 today's dollars.
Does it just scale this to give me a continuous WD rate same as this year(depends on markets every year)(and using my lifelong pensions) down to cells B22,23,24 ?
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 37
Views: 4498

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Appreciate the work. The user sheet is visually appealing, too. I've been playing with it now. (I copied it to my google docs and downloaded as a LibreOffice sheet and works fine, of course.) Like others--some trouble understanding some of the entries. Like all the SPIA COLA'd inputs/outputs general...