Search found 700 matches

by MIretired
Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 783

Re: At what point in history, would I recognize low cost modern index funds?

I believe the change to the current popularity slowly arose, and was accelerated by information more available on the internet, and the way the internet has spread the information. I think it was the avalanche of people finding out that they could not beat indexing over a meaningful time period. It ...
by MIretired
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index
Replies: 12
Views: 2072

Re: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index

Where would one find the historical yearly or monthly yield for the Total Bond Market Index Fund? Vanguard offers the historical monthly yield data for about the last 18 months, but is there a source that shows the monthly yield since the Fund's inception? If you use portfoliovisualizer: For annual...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road trip - Dallas to Kalispell MT - which vehicle and must sees
Replies: 30
Views: 2186

Re: Road trip - Dallas to Kalispell MT - which vehicle and must sees

I think I'd take the V6.
Why aren't you taking:
Colo. Sprngs. (Pike's Peak,Garden of the Gods, Seven Falls, Mesa Overlook, more)
Denver
Rocky Mtn Nat Prk
Wy-Yellowstone
Grand Tetons Nat Prk
Seen them yet?
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index
Replies: 12
Views: 2072

Re: Historical returns for Total Bond Market, Inflation and S&P 500 Index

If you're not counting on getting the best non-correlation to equities, Tot.Bnd. has a better return and Sharpe ratio (stand alones) than Intermed.Treas.; better Sharpe than Intermed.Corp.
by MIretired
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5184

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

That's not what he said. He that short-term bonds have lower nominal rates (which is virtually always true unless the yield curve is very inverted and certainly true over the long-term), and they do indeed more closely track inflation than do long-term bonds. In the comment to which that reply was ...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3764

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

I'll get it done, hopefully soon, but I don't want to promise a specific date and break my promise again. No big deal, in all fairness, making a duplicate copy of the Google Sheet is good enough to play around, this is a small spreadsheet. Could you please spend a little bit of time explaining the ...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 24
Views: 2245

Re: The other side of stock buybacks

Don't stock buy backs AND exec. share options have to be set or approved by the boards?
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1200 AC fix on a 2007 Civic
Replies: 22
Views: 1664

Re: $1200 AC fix on a 2007 Civic

I've developed a valuation model for cars that considers the estimated future cost per year to keep it driveable. Such as the engine should last maybe 300,000 mi., the trans. 200,000 mi. --if your a little lucky. Some people don't consider maintenance and repairs as part of the bargain--they should....
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3764

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

2nd ?:
Top part of Sheet2, talks about $100,000. SPIA cost for me, and I enter my monthly rec'd payment for that @80 today's dollars.
Does it just scale this to give me a continuous WD rate same as this year(depends on markets every year)(and using my lifelong pensions) down to cells B22,23,24 ?
by MIretired
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3764

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Appreciate the work. The user sheet is visually appealing, too. I've been playing with it now. (I copied it to my google docs and downloaded as a LibreOffice sheet and works fine, of course.) Like others--some trouble understanding some of the entries. Like all the SPIA COLA'd inputs/outputs general...
by MIretired
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16184

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

WanderingDoc Enticing idea about the use of leverage for RE, with little risk of defaulting. That might have been debatable back in 2009 & 10. And seems ,since you're early 30s and a doc, you were not doing this then. But, a question, if you would answer: Seems you mentioned one possible property as...
by MIretired
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1784

Re: Total returns

According to the links above, the benchmark returns were 21.41%. Expense ratios: .11% vtiax and .17% for vgtsx Returns: 27.55% vtiax and 27.40% vgtsx Subtracting the expense ratios off the top of these returns gives me 27.44% and 27.23% which are no where near the benchmarks. So there must be some ...
by MIretired
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"
Replies: 44
Views: 5219

Re: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"

From the Investment Company Act of 1940: (1) ‘‘Diversified company’’ means a management company which meets the following requirements: At least 75 per centum of the value of its total assets is represented by cash and cash items (including receivables), Government securities, securities of other i...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 27
Views: 2305

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

this is killing me as well. when my 1st daughter turned 1, she received a decent amount money from family. we put that money into a 529 plan for her and its been doing decent(deposit made in 2015 + a few smaller deposits each year as she receives bday/xmas/etc). my 2nd daughter just turned 1 and re...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 27
Views: 2305

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

this is killing me as well. when my 1st daughter turned 1, she received a decent amount money from family. we put that money into a 529 plan for her and its been doing decent(deposit made in 2015 + a few smaller deposits each year as she receives bday/xmas/etc). my 2nd daughter just turned 1 and re...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18891

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The following link downloads the latest Excel spreadsheet from Standard and Poors' website, outlining recent historical and forecasted future market earnings performance. https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true This download is linked to the fo...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18891

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The following link downloads the latest Excel spreadsheet from Standard and Poors' website, outlining recent historical and forecasted future market earnings performance. https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true This download is linked to the fo...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 10607

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Besides. Amazon is the only one that is kickin' it. Up 48%YTD, but it's only (after that YTD explosion) 2.82% of S&P market cap. Netflix isn't even in the top 25 by mark.cap.(<.74%.) The rest of FAANGM are up between 10-20%YTD. https://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=VFINX®ion=usa&cult...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18891

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I looked in my port. manager from M*, and SP500 oper. earn. TTM and forward 1 yr are both just 10-25 bps higher than they are for TSM. Can't find TTM /net earn. on TSM on the web. Here's ycharts for SP500 net reported annualized earnings from prev post--notice no 03/2018 yet. Dec. 31, 2017 109.88 Se...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18891

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

^ here's where I get most of this. Also, I add three of these into my custom port view in port manager from Morn.*. Main thing is difference between oper. and net reported and figuring which is being used. https://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/home.asp?colId=397&CN=COM Yeh. But like I said: the 25...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6658

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

I use a FI piece to get me to soc.sec. Then I have the risk portfolio, but you can think of that as buckets: part is price stability, part is income stability(mostly), and part is growth.
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18891

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

S&P forecast earnings growth out to 2020+ are already priced into stocks. That’s why the S&P 500 is trading at a 25+ current earnings multiple. According to the Standard and Poors link, they are projecting a 2018 P/E of 17 based upon current prices. How is this a 25+ earnings multiple? Been digging...
by MIretired
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?
Replies: 7
Views: 1358

Re: Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?

I haven't often(or ever) seen an article that sums up mostly? all the risks a portfolio and investor is faced with; all in one article. And quite brief, but detailed enough. I enjoyed that article.
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1901

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

... Yeh. Bids and asks; not about a concept of marked to market. It's always a bid and ask system? So for a specific stock, everything trades on one exchange; or all exchanges are synced?; and all at 4PM EST? That right? I think that is what you're implying. Think this has been gone through many ti...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1901

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

... I once read that the opening "bid" on stock exchanges is in fact adjusted after a dividend payable date is reached so that the market opens appropriately. I am not sure I understand that process. ... Should investors leave limit orders open overnight the exchange adjusts them by the amount of t...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1901

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

Why do they call bond fund monthly/quarterly payments as dividends? Are they not coupons/interest payments? Don't know. Maybe it's called a coupon when it's an individual bond. And a dividend when it's a fund of bonds, and the fund received the individual coupons throughtout the month/quarter. This...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1901

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

OP has it right by distinguishing between being part owner (equity/shares) or creditor (bondholder). dividends go to owners, coupon payments go to creditors. two very different things. i think it might be simplest to just break down all the ways management at a company can utilize the money it gene...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1901

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

I think I agree with the point of your discussion. It probably needs to be shorter. 1. The essence of the comment is that dividends are a payment out of the assets of the company. At the time the payment is made the assets will become less by that amount, all other transactions accounted for. Betwe...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1901

Dividends are not coupons(interest)

I responded to another thread with this. And it being not on the OP topic, exactly, thought I'd reprint my comments again: MIretired wrote: ↑ Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:18 pm ...that the capital structure, so to speak, is completely different for bonds and coupons than for stock ownership and dividends. eg:...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 8957

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

I think that PJW is right upthread: that the capital structure, so to speak, is completely different for bonds and coupons than for stock ownership and dividends. eg: A bond coupon is under a contract to pay that coupon; else in default. With stocks, you are a company owner. A dividend payment is a...
by MIretired
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 8957

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

... So it seems loosely analogous to buying a stock immediately prior to the ex-dividend date , assuming a market estimate of the value of the upcoming dividend is implicitly priced in as the time after the last ex-dividend date progresses. Do you want to invest based on analogies or on facts? ... ...
by MIretired
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What’s your plan for a market downturn?
Replies: 114
Views: 9754

Re: What’s your plan for a market downturn?

My plan in case of a downturn, is I have 4-5 yrs. of needed withdrawals in CDs, money markets, short bonds, and some intermediate. I'll watch unneccessary spending in a downturn, too.
by MIretired
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air conditioner compressor replacement cost
Replies: 31
Views: 3089

Re: Air conditioner compressor replacement cost

A bit of a guess, but I'd say recharging the system is a less than $50 in parts. Wouldn't think they lose half the fluid to change compressor. Can recharge a car air for $10 can of R134. If you go this route, I'd Ask exactly what they're going to do, and watch them do it. Even so, they can replace c...
by MIretired
Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air conditioner compressor replacement cost
Replies: 31
Views: 3089

Re: Air conditioner compressor replacement cost

Try a google search. Kind of a freak that compressor only lasted 5-6 years. Might be only the start/run capacitor--$10. Trouble is you're at the service co. mercy--and I don't believe they have any, as a whole. I'd at least try another small outfit co. for another estimate. For that kind of money, m...
by MIretired
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7116

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

At first, I just thought it meant just that: don't lose money. Of course you have to take a risk of some sort to make money. I think it is more a description of methodology of investing. To not take unneccessary risks. To assure highest probability of success. And when buying companies, or shares of...
by MIretired
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Risk and Reward
Replies: 16
Views: 1308

Re: Revisiting Risk and Reward

Very nice. Not enough around here about income focusing; which should happen with more retirees. I liked the meaning of a 60/40 portfolio as relates to income focus, too.
by MIretired
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 4075

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

But you are making that assumption that your portfolio will not lose to inflation. And it was demonstrated up thread that it has lost to inflation in some periods, by 10 year periods or so. This may also be just looking at the past data, but that is what you are doing when you assume it doesn't fail...
by MIretired
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3700

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Thanks for posting some of the distribution of returns data.
by MIretired
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* portfolio tracker - no May dividends
Replies: 3
Views: 436

Re: M* portfolio tracker - no May dividends

Same here. Finally on Friday. I get this about 2,3, or 4 times a year. Another one is prime mm never records divs. anymore for a couple years now. I don't care too much because I only want a close tracking in M*. For the real balances I go to VG.
by MIretired
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 10008

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

vineviz, What might your answer/opinions to this be: OK, sure, according to the Cramer episodes ,'am I diversified', the 4 stocks in 4 relatively(2 types of financials?) different sectors IS MORE diversified than 6 finanacials, 1 energy?, and 1 healthcare(biotech.) How about a universe of all US, an...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 10008

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

What bothers me, still, about using just standard deviations, and anythig derived using SD, is they don't take into account the dispersion of SD. Do they? I mean skew and kurtosis and funny data series can have the same SDs but be very much less non-normal distributions. Hence I don't like to be mad...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 10008

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

It's often mentioned that the total US stock index is the efficient mix of all US stocks. I wanted to check this using the Sharpe ratio, but didn't want to enter 1700+ stocks. So, I thought, I can get a good check using the efficient frontier of S&P500 (VFINX) vs extended market index (VEXMX). These...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with cash?
Replies: 82
Views: 10320

Re: What are you doing with cash?

As far as the $3000. minimum; that's just to open the account under normal (not a settlement account arrangement) circumstances. The balance can then fall below $3000. no problem. There may be other minimum retaining balances that I'm not aware of--though BlackcatCA states their balance of <$10. dis...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which bridge to SS?
Replies: 8
Views: 947

Re: Which bridge to SS?

Could/would you accelerate/pay-off your mortgage? So less need to hold as much cash/short term bonds for expenses. That's possible, but it would be a significant chunk of my available after-tax resources. It would force me to withdraw more from pre-tax funds, increasing my income and my healthcare ...
by MIretired
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which bridge to SS?
Replies: 8
Views: 947

Re: Which bridge to SS?

Could/would you accelerate/pay-off your mortgage? So less need to hold as much cash/short term bonds for expenses.
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9839

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

OK. I ran a sample in pv. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=05%2F21%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalan...
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9839

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

OK. I ran a sample in pv. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=05%2F21%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanc...
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9839

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. I finally get this. I get the point. Lower volatility of returns results in higher compounded return. Period. Not forgetting "for the same expected return." A lot of people get confused about that and also there needs to be quantification showing how much can be gained how consistently. An app...
by MIretired
Tue May 22, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 9839

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Hey. I finally get this. I get the point. Lower volatility of returns results in higher compounded return. Period.